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USGS1998

Diatom paleoecology Pass Key core 37, Everglades National Park, Florida Bay

During the 20th century, there have been large-scale anthropogenic modifications to the South Florida ecosystem. The effects of these changes on Florida Bay and its biological communities are currently of political and scientific interest. This study is part of a larger effort to reconstruct the history of environmental changes in the bay, using paleoecological techniques. We are using diatom indicators preserved in Florida Bay sediments to infer long-term water quality, productivity, nutrient, and salinity changes. We are also obtaining information concerning the natural variability of the ecosystem. Diatoms are microscopic algae, the remains of which are generally well preserved in sediments, and their distributions are closely linked to water quality. Diatoms were extracted from a 70-cm sediment core collected from the Pass Key mudbank of Florida Bay by the U.S. Geological Survey. Between 300-500 diatom valves from each of 15 core samples were identified and counted. Estimates of absolute abundance, species richness, Shannon-Wiener diversity, and centric:pennate ratios were calculated for each sample that was counted. Information on the ecology of the diatom species is presented, and changes in diatom community composition are evaluated. Samples contained an average of four million diatom valves per gram of sediment. Major changes in the diatom community are evident down core. These include increases in the percent abundance of marine diatoms in the time period represented by the core, probably the result of increasing salinity at Pass Key. Benthic diatoms become less abundant in the top half of the core. This may be related to a number of factors including the die-off of sea grass beds or increased turbidity of the water column. Once the chronology of the Pass Key core 37 is established, these down-core changes can be related to historical events and compared with other indicators in the sedimentary record that are currently being investigated by U.S Geological Survey researchers. This report is preliminary and has not been reviewed for conformity with U.S. Geological Survey editorial standards or with the North American Stratigraphic Code. Any use of trade, product, or firm names is for descriptive purposes only and does not imply endorsement by the U.S. Government.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2001

Diets of nesting laughing gulls (Larus atricilla) at the Virginia Coast Reserve: observations from stable isotope analysis

Food web studies often ignore details of temporal, spatial, and intrapopulation dietary variation in top-level consumers. In this study, intrapopulation dietary variation of a dominant carnivore, the Laughing Gull ( Larus atricilla ), was examined using carbon, nitrogen, and sulfur isotope analysis of gull tissues as well as their prey (fish, invertebrates, and insects) from the Virginia Coast Reserve estuarine system. As earlier traditional diet studies found evidence of individual dietary specialization within gull populations, this study used stable isotope analysis to assess specialization in a coastal Laughing Gull population. Specifically, blood, muscle, and feather isotope values indicated significant intrapopulation dietary specialization. Some gulls relied more heavily on estuarine prey (mean blood δ 13 C = -17.5, δ 15 N = 12.6, and δ 34 S = 9.3), whereas others appeared to consume more foods of marine origin (mean blood δ 13 C = -19.4, δ 15 N = 14.8, and δ 34 S = 10.4). It is important to account for such dietary variability when assessing trophic linkages in dynamic estuarine systems.

Isotopes in Environmental and Health Studies↗

USGS2021

Response of forage plants to alteration of temperature and spring thaw date: Implications for geese in a warming Arctic

Changes in summer temperatures in Arctic Alaska have led to longer and warmer growing seasons over the last three decades. Corresponding with these changes in climate, the abundance and distributions of geese have increased and expanded over the same period. We used an experimental approach to assess the response of goose forage plants to simulated environmental change. We subjected Carex subspathacea , a preferred goose forage growing on the Arctic Coastal Plain (ACP) of Alaska, to manipulations of temperature and timing of spring thaw to measure potential effects in terms of plant nitrogen concentration, aboveground biomass, and total nitrogen availability. Carex subspathacea responded to warming in a dynamic fashion. Increases in temperature led to decreases in leaf nitrogen concentration but increases in aboveground biomass. The increase in biomass was stronger than the decline in nitrogen concentration such that total nitrogen availability was increased with temperature for the first 35–40 d of the season. Grazing removal accounted for only minimal offtake of biomass, and we found no indication that grazing maintained elevated levels of nitrogen concentration longer in the season as reported in other studies. Based on demonstrated relationships in the literature between forage nitrogen concentrations and gosling growth rates, we conclude that there is currently abundant high-quality forage available across the ACP. This finding fits with recent evidence of high gosling growth rates and increasing trends in goose abundance on the ACP. Our results suggest that with climate warming of a few degrees, nitrogen concentration of forage may decrease, but forage biomass and total nitrogen availability will increase. Our data suggest that nitrogen concentration will not fall below the minimum threshold required by geese in the near future. As such, we suggest that there is currently no bottom-up limitation to goose numbers on the ACP.

Alaska↗

USGS2012

The importance of local and landscape-scale processes to the occupancy of wetlands by pond-breeding amphibians

Variation in the distribution and abundance of species across landscapes has traditionally been attributed to processes operating at fine spatial scales (i.e., environmental conditions at the scale of the sampling unit), but processes that operate across larger spatial scales such as seasonal migration or dispersal are also important. To determine the relative importance of these processes, we evaluated hypothesized relationships between the probability of occupancy in wetlands by two amphibians [wood frogs (Lithobates sylvaticus) and boreal chorus frogs (Pseudacris maculata)] and attributes of the landscape measured at three spatial scales in Rocky Mountain National Park, Colorado. We used cost-based buffers and least-cost distances to derive estimates of landscape attributes that may affect occupancy patterns from the broader spatial scales. The most highly ranked models provide strong support for a positive relationship between occupancy by breeding wood frogs and the amount of streamside habitat adjacent to a wetland. The model selection results for boreal chorus frogs are highly uncertain, though several of the most highly ranked models indicate a positive association between occupancy and the number of neighboring, occupied wetlands. We found little evidence that occupancy of either species was correlated with local-scale attributes measured at the scale of individual wetlands, suggesting that processes operating at broader scales may be more important in influencing occupancy patterns in amphibian populations.

Colorado↗

USGS2011

Histologic, immunologic and endocrine biomarkers indicate contaminant effects in fishes of the Ashtabula River

The use of fish as sentinels of aquatic ecosystem health is a biologically relevant approach to environmental monitoring and assessment. We examined the health of the Ashtabula River using histologic, immunologic, and endocrine biomarkers in brown bullhead (BB; Ameiurus nebulosus) and largemouth bass (Micropterus salmoides) and compared fish collected from a reference site (Conneaut Creek). Seasonal analysis was necessary to distinguish differences in fish between the two rivers. Overall BB from the Ashtabula River had a lower condition factor and significantly more macrophage aggregates than those from the reference site. Reduced bactericidal and cytotoxic-cell activity was observed in anterior kidney leukocytes from both BB and largemouth bass from the Ashtabula River. Lower plasma thyroxine and triiodo-L-thyronine in both species in the Ashtabula River indicated disruption of the thyroid axis. Differences in physiological biomarker responses were supported by body burden chemical concentrations when data were analyzed on a seasonal basis. The use of two fish species added a level of rigor that demonstrated biological effects were not exclusive to a single species. The results provide strong evidence that contaminants have affected fish in the Ashtabula River, a Great Lakes Area of Concern, and provide a baseline by which to evaluate remediation activities.

Ohio↗

USGS2013

Landscape influences on climate-related lake shrinkage at high latitudes

Climate-related declines in lake area have been identified across circumpolar regions and have been characterized by substantial spatial heterogeneity. An improved understanding of the mechanisms underlying lake area trends is necessary to predict where change is most likely to occur and to identify implications for high latitude reservoirs of carbon. Here, using a population of ca. 2300 lakes with statistically significant increasing and decreasing lake area trends spanning longitudinal and latitudinal gradients of ca. 1000 km in Alaska, we present evidence for a mechanism of lake area decline that involves the loss of surface water to groundwater systems. We show that lakes with significant declines in lake area were more likely to be located: (1) in burned areas; (2) on coarser, well-drained soils; and (3) farther from rivers compared to lakes that were increasing. These results indicate that postfire processes such as permafrost degradation, which also results from a warming climate, may promote lake drainage, particularly in coarse-textured soils and farther from rivers where overland flooding is less likely and downslope flow paths and negative hydraulic gradients between surface water and groundwater systems are more common. Movement of surface water to groundwater systems may lead to a deepening of subsurface flow paths and longer hydraulic residence time which has been linked to increased soil respiration and CO 2 release to the atmosphere. By quantifying relationships between statewide coarse resolution maps of landscape characteristics and spatially heterogeneous responses of lakes to environmental change, we provide a means to identify at-risk lakes and landscapes and plan for a changing climate.

Alaska↗

USGS2015

Fluvial-aeolian interactions in sediment routing and sedimentary signal buffering: an example from the Indus Basin and Thar Desert

Sediment production and its subsequent preservation in the marine stratigraphic record offshore of large rivers are linked by complex sediment-transfer systems. To interpret the stratigraphic record it is critical to understand how environmental signals transfer from sedimentary source regions to depositional sinks, and in particular to understand the role of buffering in obscuring climatic or tectonic signals. In dryland regions, signal buffering can include sediment cycling through linked fluvial and eolian systems. We investigate sediment-routing connectivity between the Indus River and the Thar Desert, where fluvial and eolian systems exchanged sediment over large spatial scales (hundreds of kilometers). Summer monsoon winds recycle sediment from the lower Indus River and delta northeastward, i.e., downwind and upstream, into the desert. Far-field eolian recycling of Indus sediment is important enough to control sediment provenance at the downwind end of the desert substantially, although the proportion of Indus sediment of various ages varies regionally within the desert; dune sands in the northwestern Thar Desert resemble the Late Holocene–Recent Indus delta, requiring short transport and reworking times. On smaller spatial scales (1–10 m) along fluvial channels in the northern Thar Desert, there is also stratigraphic evidence of fluvial and eolian sediment reworking from local rivers. In terms of sediment volume, we estimate that the Thar Desert could be a more substantial sedimentary store than all other known buffer regions in the Indus basin combined. Thus, since the mid-Holocene, when the desert expanded as the summer monsoon rainfall decreased, fluvial-eolian recycling has been an important but little recognized process buffering sediment flux to the ocean. Similar fluvial-eolian connectivity likely also affects sediment routing and signal transfer in other dryland regions globally.

Indus Basin, Thar Desert↗

USGS2013

Vascular plant and vertebrate species richness in national parks of the eastern United States

Given the estimates that species diversity is diminishing at 50-100 times the normal rate, it is critical that we be able to evaluate changes in species richness in order to make informed decisions for conserving species diversity. In this study, we examined the potential of vascular plant species richness to be used as a surrogate for vertebrate species richness in the classes of amphibians, reptiles, birds, and mammals. Vascular plants, as primary producers, represent the biotic starting point for ecological community structure and are the logical place to start for understanding vertebrate species associations. We used data collected by the United States (US) National Park Service (NPS) on species presence within parks in the eastern US to estimate simple linear regressions between plant species richness and vertebrate richness. Because environmental factors may also influence species diversity, we performed simple linear regressions of species richness versus natural logarithm of park area, park latitude, mean annual precipitation, mean annual temperature, and human population density surrounding the parks. We then combined plant species richness and environmental variables in multiple regressions to determine the variables that remained as significant predictors of vertebrate species richness. As expected, we detected significant relationships between plant species richness and amphibian, bird, and mammal species richness. In some cases, plant species richness was predicted by park area alone. Species richness of mammals was only related to plant species richness. Reptile species richness, on the other hand, was related to plant species richness, park latitude and annual precipitation, while amphibian species richness was related to park latitude, park area, and plant species richness. Thus, plant species richness predicted species richness of different vertebrate groups to varying degrees and should not be used exclusively as a surrogate for vertebrate species richness. Plant species richness should be included with other variables such as area and climate when considering strategies to manage and conserve species in US National Parks. It is not always appropriate to draw conclusions about analyses of taxonomic surrogates from one area to another. Two patterns evident from the linear regressions were the increase in species richness with the increase of park area and with increase of vascular plant species richness. To test whether there were differences in these patterns among networks, we used analysis of covariance (ANCOVA). Differences among networks were detected only in bird species richness versus plant species richness and for all taxa except mammals for vertebrate species richness versus park area. Some of these results may be due to small sample size among networks, and therefore, low statistical power. Other factors that could have contributed to these results were differences in average park area and habitat heterogeneity among networks, latitudinal gradients, low variation in mean annual precipitation, and different use of vegetation by migratory species. Based on these results we recommend that management of biodiversity be approached from local and site specific criteria rather than applying management directives derived from other regions of the US. It is also recommended that analyses similar to those presented here be conducted for all national parks, once data become available for all networks in the US, to gain a better understanding of how vascular plant species richness, area, and vertebrate species richness are related in the US.

Natural Resource Technical Report NPS/NCR/NCRO/NRT↗

USGS2004

Using an ecoregion framework to analyze land-cover and land-use dynamics.

The United States has a highly varied landscape because of wide-ranging differences in combinations of climatic, geologic, edaphic, hydrologic, vegetative, and human management (land use) factors. Land uses are dynamic, with the types and rates of change dependent on a host of variables, including land accessibility, economic considerations, and the internal increase and movement of the human population. There is a convergence of evidence that ecoregions are very useful for organizing, interpreting, and reporting information about land-use dynamics. Ecoregion boundaries correspond well with patterns of land cover, urban settlement, agricultural variables, and resource-based industries. We implemented an ecoregion framework to document trends in contemporary land-cover and land-use dynamics over the conterminous United States from 1973 to 2000. Examples of results from six eastern ecoregions show that the relative abundance, grain of pattern, and human alteration of land-cover types organize well by ecoregion and that these characteristics of change, themselves, change through time.

Environmental Management↗

USGS1997

Mixed-mode sorption of hydroxylated atrazine degradation products to sell: A mechanism for bound residue

This study tested the hypothesis that sorption of hydroxylated atrazine degradation products (HADPs: hydroxyatrazine, HA; deethylhydroxyatrazine, DEHA; and deisopropylhydroxyatrazine, DIHA) to soils occurs by mixed-mode binding resulting from two simultaneous mechanisms: (1) cation exchange and (2) hydrophobic interaction. The objective was to use liquid chromatography and soil extraction experiments to show that mixed-mode binding is the mechanism controlling HADP sorption to soils and is also a mechanism for bound residue. Overall, HADP binding to solid-phase extraction (SPE) sorbents occurred in the order: cation exchange >> octadecyl (C18) >> cyanopropyl. Binding to cation exchange SPE and to a high-performance liquid chromatograph octyl (C8) column showed evidence for mixed-mode binding. Comparison of soil extracted by 0.5 M KH2P04, pH 7.5, or 25% aqueous CH3CN showed that, for HA and DIHA, cation exchange was a more important binding mechanism to soils than hydrophobic interaction. Based on differences between several extractants, the extent of HADP mixed-mode binding to soil occurred in the following order: HA > DIHA > DEHA. Mixed-mode extraction recovered 42.8% of bound atrazine residues from aged soil, and 88% of this fraction was identified as HADPs. Thus, a significant portion of bound atrazine residues in soils is sorbed by the mixed-mode binding mechanisms.

Environmental Science & Technology↗

USGS2000

Seasonal distribution of bird populations at the Patuxent Research Refuge

High concentrations of mercury from past mining activities have accumulated in the food chain of fish-eating birds nesting along the mid to lower Carson River. Activities of nine plasma and tissue enzymes, and concentrations of other plasma and tissue constituents were measured for black-crowned night-heron, Nycticorax nycticorax, (BCNH) and snowy egret, Egretta thula, (SE) nestlings from two high mercury sites and one low mercury site. Geometric mean blood Hg concentrations for BCNHs at the high mercury sites were 2.6 and 2.8 ppm (ww) and 0.6 ppm at the low mercury site. Blood concentrations for SEs were 3.6 and 1.9 ppm at the high mercury sites and 0.7 ppm at the low mercury site. In BCNHs plasma glutathione peroxidase (GSH peroxidase) activity was lower in both high mercury sites relative to the low mercury site. Butyryl cholinesterase (BuChe), ALT, glutathione reductase (GSSG-reductase) and LDH-L activities were lower in one high mercury site. In SEs significant differences were lower BuChe and LDH-L, but elevated GGT activities. Evidence of renal stress in both species at high mercury sites included increased plasma uric acid, blood urea nitrogen, and creatinine concentrations as well as oxidative stress in the kidney tissue itself where oxidized glutathione increased. A number of the mercury site-related effects, including decreased plasma GSH-peroxidase and hepatic G-6-PDH activities, higher GSSG-reductase activity, and lower hepatic concentrations of reduced thiols have been reported in methylmercury feeding studies with great egrets and mallards. These findings suggest the utility of herons and egrets for monitoring mercury sites.

Society of Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry,↗

USGS2023

Seasonal habitat utilization provides evidence for site fidelity during both spawn and non-spawning seasons in Lake Ontario cisco Coregonus artedi

The Lake Ontario cisco Coregonus artedi population declined in the 20th century, and restoration of this species is a management objective. Management tools to restore cisco are limited because little is known about cisco spawning behavior and habitat use. We tagged 76 cisco from a remnant population in Chaumont Bay, Lake Ontario with acoustic transmitters and characterized seasonal habitat use from 2016 to 2021. We also used fine-scale acoustic telemetry, coregonine egg collections, and trap net catches to better understand cisco spawning behaviors related to spawn timing and site selection. Network analysis and Bayesian standard ellipse area indicated that cisco utilization of lake regions and bathythermal niche space varied by season. During spawning season, male cisco concentrated in Chaumont Bay over shallow (∼3 m) rocky shoals where cisco egg deposition was the greatest. Spawning site fidelity to Chaumont Bay was observed for all male cisco surviving to successive years (n = 23). Acoustic-tagged females did not survive consecutive spawning seasons, but trap net catches indicated females were less abundant and occupied spawning areas for less time than males. Post spawn, some individual male cisco (n = 5/23) had differential, yet consistent, annual migrations to separate regions of Lake Ontario, suggesting fidelity to feeding sites. Our results reveal seasonal habitats used by male cisco and, importantly, caution that environmental changes to a single spawning site could negatively affect the remnant Chaumont Bay cisco population. Specialized conservation efforts may be necessary when cisco spawning aggregations have diverse post-spawn migratory behaviors but a central spawning ground.

Chaumont Bay, Lake Ontario↗

USGS2017

Can personality predict individual differences in brook trout spatial learning ability?

While differences in individual personality are common in animal populations, understanding the ecological significance of variation has not yet been resolved. Evidence suggests that personality may influence learning and memory; a finding that could improve our understanding of the evolutionary processes that produce and maintain intraspecific behavioural heterogeneity. Here, we tested whether boldness, the most studied personality trait in fish, could predict learning ability in brook trout. After quantifying boldness, fish were trained to find a hidden food patch in a maze environment. Stable landmark cues were provided to indicate the location of food and, at the conclusion of training, cues were rearranged to test for learning. There was a negative relationship between boldness and learning as shy fish were increasingly more successful at navigating the maze and locating food during training trials compared to bold fish. In the altered testing environment, only shy fish continued using cues to search for food. Overall, the learning rate of bold fish was found to be lower than that of shy fish for several metrics suggesting that personality could have widespread effects on behaviour. Because learning can increase plasticity to environmental change, these results have significant implications for fish conservation.

Behavioural Processes↗

USGS2008

Effects of ACTH, capture, and short term confinement on glucocorticoid concentrations in harlequin ducks ( Histrionicus histrionicus )

Little is known about baseline concentrations of adrenal hormones and hormonal responses to stress in sea ducks, although significant population declines documented in several species suggest that sea ducks are exposed to increased levels of environmental stress. Such declines have been observed in geographically distinct harlequin duck populations. We performed an adrenocorticotropic hormone (ACTH) challenge to evaluate adrenal function and characterize corticosterone concentrations in captive harlequin ducks and investigated the effects of capture, surgery, and short term confinement on corticosterone concentrations in wild harlequin ducks. Harlequin ducks responded to the ACTH challenge with an average three-fold increase in serum corticosterone concentration approximately 90 min post injection, and a four- to five-fold increase in fecal glucocorticoid concentration 2 to 4 h post injection. Serum corticosterone concentrations in wild harlequin ducks increased within min of capture and elevated levels were found for several hours post capture, indicating that surgery and confinement maintain elevated corticosterone concentrations in this species. Mean corticosterone concentrations in wild harlequin ducks held in temporary captivity were similar to the maximum response levels during the ACTH challenge in captive birds. However, large variation among individuals was observed in responses of wild birds, and we found additional evidence suggesting that corticosterone responses varied between hatch year and after hatch year birds.

Comparative Biochemistry and Physiology, Part A: M↗

USGS2009

Estuarine Ecology of Juvenile Salmon in Western Alaska: a Review

In the late 1990s and early 2000s, large declines in numbers of chum salmon Oncorhynchus keta and Chinook salmon O. tshawytscha returning to the Arctic-YukonKuskokwim (AYK) region (Alaska, USA) illuminated the need for an improved understanding of the variables controlling salmon abundance at all life stages. In addressing questions about salmon abundance, large gaps in our knowledge of basic salmon life history and the critical early marine life stage were revealed. In this paper, results from studies conducted on the estuarine ecology of juvenile salmon in western Alaska are summarized and compared, emphasizing timing and distribution during outmigration, environmental conditions, age and growth, feeding, and energy content of salmon smolts. In western Alaska, water temperature dramatically changes with season, ranging from 0°C after ice melt in late spring/early summer to 19°C in July. Juvenile salmon were found in AYK estuaries from early May until August or September, but to date no information is available on their residence duration or survival probability. Chum salmon were the most abundant juvenile salmon reported, ranging in percent catch from <0.1% to 4.7% and most research effort has focused on this species. Abundances of Chinook salmon, sockeye salmon O. nerka, and pink salmon O. gorbuscha varied among estuaries, while coho salmon O. kisutch juveniles were consistently rare, never amounting to more than 0.8% of the catch. Dietary composition of juvenile salmon was highly variable and a shift was commonly reported from epibenthic and neustonic prey in lower salinity water to pelagic prey in higher salinity water. Gaps in the knowledge of AYK salmon estuarine ecology are still evident. For example, data on outmigration patterns and residence timing and duration, rearing conditions and their effect on diet, growth, and survival are often completely lacking or available only for few selected years and sites. Filling gaps in knowledge concerning salmon use and survival in estuarine and near-shore habitats within the AYK region will aid in assessing the relative roles of all habitats (freshwater to marine) in controlling salmon abundance.

Alaska↗

USGS2014

Effects of smallmouth buffalo, Ictiobus bubalus biomass on water transparency, nutrients, and productivity in shallow experimental ponds

The smallmouth buffalo Ictiobus bubalus is a native benthivore to floodplain lakes in the Yazoo River Basin, USA. Based on evidence from other benthivorous fish studies we hypothesized high biomasses of I. bubalus contribute to poor water quality conditions. We tested this hypothesis in shallow (< 1.5 m) 0.05 ha earthen ponds at three stocking biomasses over a 10-week period during the summer of 2012. The most notable results from the permutational multivariate analysis of variance suggest I. bubalus at high and moderate biomasses significantly (p < 0.05) enhanced turbidity and suspended solid levels while decreasing Secchi depth. Our results suggest that effects of I. bubalus on water clarity may have considerable ecological implications in natural habitats such as shallow floodplain lakes.

Bulletin of Environmental Contamination and Toxico↗

USGS2017

An empirical perspective for understanding climate change impacts in Switzerland

Planning for the future requires a detailed understanding of how climate change affects a wide range of systems at spatial scales that are relevant to humans. Understanding of climate change impacts can be gained from observational and reconstruction approaches and from numerical models that apply existing knowledge to climate change scenarios. Although modeling approaches are prominent in climate change assessments, observations and reconstructions provide insights that cannot be derived from simulations alone, especially at local to regional scales where climate adaptation policies are implemented. Here, we review the wealth of understanding that emerged from observations and reconstructions of ongoing and past climate change impacts in Switzerland, with wider applicability in Europe. We draw examples from hydrological, alpine, forest, and agricultural systems, which are of paramount societal importance, and are projected to undergo important changes by the end of this century. For each system, we review existing model-based projections, present what is known from observations, and discuss how empirical evidence may help improve future projections. A particular focus is given to better understanding thresholds, tipping points and feedbacks that may operate on different time scales. Observational approaches provide the grounding in evidence that is needed to develop local to regional climate adaptation strategies. Our review demonstrates that observational approaches should ideally have a synergistic relationship with modeling in identifying inconsistencies in projections as well as avenues for improvement. They are critical for uncovering unexpected relationships between climate and agricultural, natural, and hydrological systems that will be important to society in the future.

Regional Environmental Change↗

USGS2020

Parsing the effects of demography, climate, and management on recurrent brucellosis outbreaks in elk

1. Zoonotic pathogens can harm human health and well-being directly or by impacting livestock. Pathogens that spillover from wildlife can also impair conservation efforts if humans perceive wildlife as pests. Brucellosis, caused by the bacterium Brucella abortus, circulates in elk and bison herds of the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem and poses a risk to cattle and humans. Our goal was to understand the relative effects of climatic drivers, host demography, and management control programs on disease dynamics. 2. Using >20 years of serologic, demographic, and environmental data on brucellosis in elk, we built stochastic compartmental models to assess the influences of climate forcing, herd immunity, population turnover, and management interventions on pathogen transmission. Data were collected at feedgrounds visited in winter by free-ranging elk in Wyoming, USA. 3. Snowpack, hypothesized as a driver of elk aggregation and thus brucellosis transmission, was strongly correlated across feedgrounds. We expected this variable to drive synchronized disease dynamics across herds. Instead, we demonstrate asynchronous epizootics driven by variation in demographic rates. 4. We evaluated the effectiveness of test-and-slaughter of seropositive female elk at two feedgrounds. Test-and-slaughter temporarily reduced herd-level seroprevalence but likely reduced herd immunity while removing few infectious individuals, resulting in subsequent outbreaks once the intervention ceased. We simulated an alternative strategy of removing seronegative female elk and found it would increase herd immunity, yielding fewer infections. We evaluated a second experimental treatment wherein feeding density was reduced at one feedground, but we found no evidence for an effect despite a decade of implementation. 5. Synthesis and applications: Positive serostatus is often weakly correlated with infectiousness but is nevertheless used to make management decisions including lethal removal in wildlife disease systems. We show how this can have adverse consequences whereas efforts that maintain herd immunity can have longer-term protective effects. Climatic drivers may not result in synchronous disease dynamics across populations unless vital rates are also similar because demographic factors have a large influence on disease patterns.

Idaho, Montana, Wyoming↗