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At least 109 records · Page 6Linked to original sources
USGS2014

Development of the Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) for predicting the impact of storms on high-energy, active-margin coasts

The Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) applies a predominantly deterministic framework to make detailed predictions (meter scale) of storm-induced coastal flooding, erosion, and cliff failures over large geographic scales (100s of kilometers). CoSMoS was developed for hindcast studies, operational applications (i.e., nowcasts and multiday forecasts), and future climate scenarios (i.e., sea-level rise + storms) to provide emergency responders and coastal planners with critical storm hazards information that may be used to increase public safety, mitigate physical damages, and more effectively manage and allocate resources within complex coastal settings. The prototype system, developed for the California coast, uses the global WAVEWATCH III wave model, the TOPEX/Poseidon satellite altimetry-based global tide model, and atmospheric-forcing data from either the US National Weather Service (operational mode) or Global Climate Models (future climate mode), to determine regional wave and water-level boundary conditions. These physical processes are dynamically downscaled using a series of nested Delft3D-WAVE (SWAN) and Delft3D-FLOW (FLOW) models and linked at the coast to tightly spaced XBeach (eXtreme Beach) cross-shore profile models and a Bayesian probabilistic cliff failure model. Hindcast testing demonstrates that, despite uncertainties in preexisting beach morphology over the ~500 km alongshore extent of the pilot study area, CoSMoS effectively identifies discrete sections of the coast (100s of meters) that are vulnerable to coastal hazards under a range of current and future oceanographic forcing conditions, and is therefore an effective tool for operational and future climate scenario planning.

Natural Hazards↗
USGS2018

Effects of temperature and precipitation on grassland bird nesting success as mediated by patch size

Grassland birds are declining faster than any other bird guild across North America. Shrinking ranges and population declines are attributed to widespread habitat loss and increasingly fragmented landscapes of agriculture and other land uses that are misaligned with grassland bird conservation. Concurrent with habitat loss and degradation, temperate grasslands have been disproportionally affected by climate change relative to most other terrestrial biomes. Distributions of grassland birds often correlate with gradients in climate, but few researchers have explored the consequences of weather on the demography of grassland birds inhabiting a range of grassland fragments. To do so, we modeled the effects of temperature and precipitation on nesting success rates of 12 grassland bird species inhabiting a range of grassland patches across North America (21,000 nests from 81 individual studies). Higher amounts of precipitation in the preceding year were associated with higher nesting success, but wetter conditions during the active breeding season reduced nesting success. Extremely cold or hot conditions during the early breeding season were associated with lower rates of nesting success. The direct and indirect influence of temperature and precipitation on nesting success was moderated by grassland patch size. The positive effects of precipitation in the preceding year on nesting success were strongest in relatively small grassland patches and had little effect in large patches. Conversely, warm temperatures reduced nesting success in small grassland patches but increased nesting success in large patches. Mechanisms underlying these differences may be patch‐size‐induced variation in microclimates and predator activity. Although the exact cause is unclear, large grassland patches, the most common metric of grassland conservation, appears to moderate the effects of weather on grassland‐bird demography and could be an effective component of climate‐change adaptation.

Conservation Biology↗
USGS2018

Microclimatic gradients provide evidence for a glacial refugium for temperate trees in a sheltered hilly landscape of Northern Italy

Aim Refugia play a key role in conserving biodiversity during periods of unfavourable and highly variable regional climate. However, refugial populations are often small and fragmented, which makes their identification difficult. In this study, we investigate whether an area of complex topography in the southern foreland of the Alps could have provided a suitable microclimate to serve as a glacial refugium for temperate trees during the last glacial. Location The Euganean Hills in Northern Italy (Veneto). Methods We assessed the current microclimatic variability in the ecologically diverse region on a fine scale by recording half‐hourly near‐surface temperatures over a period of 11 months. After comparing our measurements with today's vegetation distribution, broad‐scale synoptic patterns, and topoclimatic factors, we estimated refugial suitability based on extreme temperatures, climatic stability, and difference from the regional average. Results Present‐day temperature gradients within the Euganean Hills are large enough to explain the presence of the temperate tree species Fagus sylvatica as well as Mediterranean Quercus ilex , two species that are absent elsewhere in the adjacent Po Plain. During winter, anticyclonic weather patterns resulted in strong atmospheric inversions, with temperatures increasing by +1°C/100 m in the hills relative to the surrounding Po Plain. Main conclusions Our high‐resolution climate data support multi‐proxy palaeoecological records identifying the Euganean Hills as a refugium for temperate trees. Temperature anomalies of 2–4°C relative to the surrounding Po Plain are sufficient to allow several temperate tree species to survive the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) in the Euganean Hills under a harsh continental climate. Specifically, elevations >200 m a.s.l. in the central parts of the hills may have provided suitable conditions for local LGM refugia. Regions of complex topography such as the Euganean Hills conserved past and present biodiversity and provide high‐priority areas for conservation under future climate warming.

Journal of Biogeography↗
USGS2004

Influence of weather extremes on the water levels of glaciated prairie wetlands

Orchid Meadows is a long-term wetland research and monitoring site on the Coteau des Prairie in extreme east-central South Dakota, USA. It is a 65-ha Waterfowl Production Area with numerous temporary, seasonal, and semi-permanent wetlands. Ground water and surface water have been monitored at the site from 1987 to 1989 and from 1993 to the present. Vegetation has been monitored since 1993. The monitoring record includes two nearly back-to-back weather extremes: a drought in the late 1980s and a deluge in the early- to mid-1990s. Wetlands differed sharply in water levels between 3-yr dry and wet periods. For example, the time of inundation ranged among semi-permanent wetlands from 13 to 71 percent during the dry years to 100 percent during the wet years, while for seasonal wetlands, it was 0-29 percent and 46-100 percent, respectively, during dry and wet periods. Temporary wetlands had no surface water during the dry period but had standing water 0-67 percent of the time during the deluge years. The highest ground-water levels during the dry period were lower than most levels during the wet period. The difference in the water-table elevations of temporary wetlands between the periods was as much as 4 m. Ground-water levels near semi-permanent wetlands were considerably more stable (annual range of 0.3-1.6 m) than those near temporary wetlands (1.3-2.5 m). The results support the concept that weather extremes drive the wetland cover cycle and other key ecological processes in prairie wetlands. The new data from Orchid Meadows, together with other long-term data sets from North Dakota and Saskatchewan, Canada, are useful for many research purposes, including the parameterization and testing of models that simulate the effects of climate variability and climate change on prairie wetland ecosystems.

Wetlands↗
USGS2015

Evaluation of satellite rainfall estimates for drought and flood monitoring in Mozambique

Satellite derived rainfall products are useful for drought and flood early warning and overcome the problem of sparse, unevenly distributed and erratic rain gauge observations, provided their accuracy is well known. Mozambique is highly vulnerable to extreme weather events such as major droughts and floods and thus, an understanding of the strengths and weaknesses of different rainfall products is valuable. Three dekadal (10-day) gridded satellite rainfall products (TAMSAT African Rainfall Climatology And Time-series (TARCAT) v2.0, Famine Early Warning System NETwork (FEWS NET) Rainfall Estimate (RFE) v2.0, and Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS)) are compared to independent gauge data (2001–2012). This is done using pairwise comparison statistics to evaluate the performance in estimating rainfall amounts and categorical statistics to assess rain-detection capabilities. The analysis was performed for different rainfall categories, over the seasonal cycle and for regions dominated by different weather systems. Overall, satellite products overestimate low and underestimate high dekadal rainfall values. The RFE and CHIRPS products perform as good, generally outperforming TARCAT on the majority of statistical measures of skill. TARCAT detects best the relative frequency of rainfall events, while RFE underestimates and CHIRPS overestimates the rainfall events frequency. Differences in products performance disappear with higher rainfall and all products achieve better results during the wet season. During the cyclone season, CHIRPS shows the best results, while RFE outperforms the other products for lower dekadal rainfall. Products blending thermal infrared and passive microwave imagery perform better than infrared only products and particularly when meteorological patterns are more complex, such as over the coastal, central and south regions of Mozambique, where precipitation is influenced by frontal systems.

Remote Sensing↗
USGS2021

‘Unscrambling’ the drivers of egg production in Agassiz’s desert tortoise: Climate and individual attributes predict reproductive output

ABSTRACT: The ‘bet hedging’ life history strategy of long-lived iteroparous species reduces short-term reproductive output to minimize the risk of reproductive failure over a lifetime. For desert-dwelling ectotherms living in variable and unpredictable environments, reproductive output is further influenced by precipitation and temperature via effects on food availability and limits on activity. We assembled multiple (n = 12) data sets on egg production for the threatened Agassiz’s desert tortoise Gopherus agassizii across its range and used these data to build a range-wide predictive model of annual reproductive output as a function of annual weather variation and individual-level attributes (body size and prior-year reproductive status). Climate variables were more robust predictors of reproductive output than individual-level attributes, with overall reproductive output positively related to prior-year precipitation and an earlier start to the spring activity season, and negatively related to spring temperature extremes (monthly temperature range in March-April). Reproductive output was highest for individuals with larger body sizes that reproduced in the previous year. Expected annual reproductive output from 1990-2018 varied from 2-5 to 6-12 eggs female -1 yr -1 , with a weak decline in expected reproductive output over this time (p = 0.02). Climate-driven environmental variation in expected reproductive output was highly correlated across all 5 Recovery Units for this species (Pearson’s r > 0.9). Overall, our model suggests that climate change could strongly impact the reproductive output of Agassiz’s desert tortoise, and could have a negative population-level effect if precipitation is significantly reduced across the species’ range as predicted under some climate models.

California, Arizona, Nevada, Utah↗
USGS2018

Seasonal streamflow extremes are key drivers of Brook Trout young‐of‐the‐year abundance

To manage ecosystems in the context of climate change, we need to understand the relationship between extreme events and population dynamics. Floods and droughts are projected to occur more frequently, but how aquatic species will respond to these extreme events remains uncertain. Based on counts of Brook Trout ( Salvelinus fontinalis ) collected over 28 yr at 115 sites in Shenandoah National Park, we developed mixed‐effects models to (1) assess how well extreme streamflow, as compared to mean flows and total precipitation, can explain young‐of‐the‐year (YOY) abundance, (2) identify potential nonlinear relationships between seasonal environmental covariates and abundance using nonlinear generalized additive mixed models, and (3) explore likely impacts of expected future weather and streamflow conditions. We found that (1) using covariates of streamflow extremes improved prediction of YOY abundance compared to use of mean seasonal flow values or precipitation as a proxy, (2) warmer maximum daily spring temperatures were associated with increased YOY abundance up to about 1.5 standard deviations, above which abundance declined, and (3) a strong negative effect of extreme winter streamflow, unlikely to be offset by possibly positive effects from other seasons, is expected to have a detrimental impact on Brook Trout populations given predicted increases in winter precipitation. Because YOY abundance is a strong determinant of population dynamics for these short‐lived species, extreme events will have the potential to exert a strong influence on population persistence of Brook Trout in a changing climate. Management actions that maximize resiliency of populations in response to extreme events, such as restoration of habitat connectivity, should be prioritized to buffer negative impacts.

Virginia↗
USGS2008

Diagnosis of an intense atmospheric river impacting the pacific northwest: Storm summary and offshore vertical structure observed with COSMIC satellite retrievals

This study uses the new satellite-based Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere, and Climate (COSMIC) mission to retrieve tropospheric profiles of temperature and moisture over the data-sparse eastern Pacific Ocean. The COSMIC retrievals, which employ a global positioning system radio occultation technique combined with "first-guess" information from numerical weather prediction model analyses, are evaluated through the diagnosis of an intense atmospheric river (AR; i.e., a narrow plume of strong water vapor flux) that devastated the Pacific Northwest with flooding rains in early November 2006. A detailed analysis of this AR is presented first using conventional datasets and highlights the fact that ARs are critical contributors to West Coast extreme precipitation and flooding events. Then, the COSMIC evaluation is provided. Offshore composite COSMIC soundings north of, within, and south of this AR exhibited vertical structures that are meteorologically consistent with satellite imagery and global reanalysis fields of this case and with earlier composite dropsonde results from other landfalling ARs. Also, a curtain of 12 offshore COSMIC soundings through the AR yielded cross-sectional thermodynamic and moisture structures that were similarly consistent, including details comparable to earlier aircraft-based dropsonde analyses. The results show that the new COSMIC retrievals, which are global (currently yielding ???2000 soundings per day), provide high-resolution vertical-profile information beyond that found in the numerical model first-guess fields and can help monitor key lower-tropospheric mesoscale phenomena in data-sparse regions. Hence, COSMIC will likely support a wide array of applications, from physical process studies to data assimilation, numerical weather prediction, and climate research. ?? 2008 American Meteorological Society.

Monthly Weather Review↗
USGS2016

Extremes of heat, drought and precipitation depress reproductive performance in shortgrass prairie passerines

Climate change elevates conservation concerns worldwide because it is likely to exacerbate many identified threats to animal populations. In recent decades, grassland birds have declined faster than other North American bird species, a loss thought to be due to habitat loss and fragmentation and changing agricultural practices. Climate change poses additional threats of unknown magnitude to these already declining populations. We examined how seasonal and daily weather conditions over 10 years influenced nest survival of five species of insectivorous passerines native to the shortgrass prairie and evaluate our findings relative to future climate predictions for this region. Daily nest survival ( n = 870) was best predicted by a combination of daily and seasonal weather variables, age of nest, time in season and bird habitat guild. Within a season, survival rates were lower on very hot days (temperatures ≥ 35 °C), on dry days (with a lag of 1 day) and on stormy days (especially for those species nesting in shorter vegetation). Across years, survival rates were also lower during warmer and drier breeding seasons. Clutch sizes were larger when early spring temperatures were cool and the week prior to egg-laying was wetter and warming. Climate change is likely to exacerbate grassland bird population declines because projected climate conditions include rising temperatures, more prolonged drought and more intense storms as the hydrological cycle is altered. Under varying realistic scenarios, nest success estimates were halved compared to their current average value when models both increased the temperature (3 °C) and decreased precipitation (two additional dry days during a nesting period), thus underscoring a sense of urgency in identifying and addressing the current causes of range-wide declines.

Ibis↗
USGS1999

The effects of global climate change on seagrasses

The increasing rate of global climate change seen in this century, and predicted to accelerate into the next, will significantly impact the Earth's oceans. In this review, we examine previously published seagrass research through a lens of global climate change in order to consider the potential effects on the world's seagrasses. A primary effect of increased global temperature on seagrasses will be the alteration of growth rates and other physiological functions of the plants themselves. The distribution of seagrasses will shift as a result of increased temperature stress and changes in the patterns of sexual reproduction. Indirect temperature effects may include plant community changes as a result of increased eutrophication and changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events. The direct effects of sea level rise on the coastal oceans will be to increase water depths, change tidal variation (both mean tide level and tidal prism), alter water movement, and increase seawater intrusion into estuaries and rivers. A major impact of all these changes on seagrasses and tidal freshwater plants will be a redistribution of existing habitats. The intrusion of ocean water into formerly fresh or brackish water areas will directly affect estuarine plant distribution by changing conditions at specific locations, causing some plants to relocate in order to stay within their tolerance zones and allowing others to expand their distribution inland. Distribution changes will result from the effects of salinity change on seed germination, propagule formation, photosynthesis, growth and biomass. Also, some plant communities may decline or be eliminated as a result of increased disease activity under more highly saline conditions. Increased water depth, which reduces the amount of light reaching existing seagrass beds, will directly reduce plant productivity where plants are light limited. Likewise, increases in water motion and tidal circulation will decrease the amount of light reaching the plants by increasing turbidity or by stimulating the growth of epiphytes. Increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide will directly elevate the amount of CO 2 in coastal waters. In areas where seagrasses are carbon limited, this may increase primary production, although whether this increase will be sustained with long-term CO 2 enrichment is uncertain. The impact of increases in CO 2 will vary with species and environmental circumstances, but will likely include species distribution by altering the competition between seagrass species as well as between seagrass and algal populations. The reaction of seagrasses to UV-B radiation may range from inhibition of photosynthetic activity, as seen for terrestrial plants and marine algae, to the increased metabolic cost of producing UV-B blocking compounds within plant tissue. The effects of UV-B radiation will likely be greatest in the tropics and in southern oceans. There is every reason to believe that, as with the predicted terrestrial effects of global climate change, impacts to seagrasses will be great. The changes that will occur in seagrass communities are difficult to predict; our assessment clearly points out the need for research directed toward the impact of global climate change on seagrasses.

Aquatic Botany↗
USGS2021

A greener future for the Galapagos: Forecasting ecosystem productivity by finding climate analogs in time

Forecasting ecosystem response to climate change is critical for guiding policymaking but challenging due to: complicated relationships between microclimates and regional climates; species’ responses that are driven by extremes rather than averages; the multifaceted nature of species’ interactions; and the lack of historical analogs to future climates. Given these challenges, even model systems such as the Galapagos Islands, a world-famous biodiversity hotspot and World Heritage Site, lack clear forecasts for future environmental change. Here, we developed a novel nonparametric method for simulating the ecosystem futures based on observed vegetation productivity (NDVI) during analogous weather observed historically. Using satellite images taken from the past to piece together a simulated future, we projected that productivity of terrestrial vegetation of the Galapagos will increase over the next century by approximately one standard deviation archipelago-wide, with largest increases during the wet season (January to June) and in the arid zones. Such greening would impact a variety of ecological and evolutionary processes, species of conservation concern, and agricultural practices. Our straightforward approach can be applied to many other regions, particularly those with rapid ecosystem responses to stochastic inter-annual climatic fluctuations that provide appropriate climate analogs for forecasting.

Galápagos Islands↗
USGS2026

Widespread terrestrial ecosystem disruption at the onset of the Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum

The Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM, ~56 Mya) interval was marked by massive 13 C-depleted carbon emissions into the ocean/atmosphere system, manifested as a negative carbon isotope excursion (CIE) in sedimentary components, and ~5 °C global average warming. Episodes of hydrological perturbations and soil-erosion have been widely documented for the PETM but their link with vegetation- and carbon cycle changes remain poorly constrained. Here, we present organic microfossil evidence showing a strong increase in fern-dominated pioneer vegetation that replaced coniferous forests on the margin of the Norwegian Sea during the first millennia of the CIE. With the present stratigraphic constraints, the “fern spike” occurred simultaneously in terrestrial settings along the North Sea, Arctic Ocean, the US east coast and in southern Australia, indicating that pioneer vegetation persisted for several millennia following a partial collapse of previously stable terrestrial ecosystems. Both the ferns and influx of microcharcoal imply recurrent physical disturbance, including soil destabilization and erosion, potentially linked to droughts, wildfires, and strong hydrological forcing resulting from extreme climate change. Together with evidence for reworked clay minerals and ancient organic matter (kerogen), these findings show that highly disturbed terrestrial ecosystems were widespread across mid- and high-latitude regions globally. Carbon cycle model simulations suggest that a substantial loss of standing and buried biomass, along with oxidation of soil organic matter, acted as important positive feedbacks during the onset of the CIE. Additionally, enhanced kerogen weathering likely contributed as another major positive feedback throughout both the onset and main phase of the CIE.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences↗
USGS2021

Landscape evolution in eastern Chuckwalla Valley, Riverside County, California

This study investigates sedimentary and geomorphic processes in eastern Chuckwalla Valley, Riverside County, California, a region of arid, basin-and-range terrain where extensive solar-energy development is planned. The objectives of this study were to (1) measure local weather parameters and use them to model aeolian sediment-transport potential; (2) identify surface sedimentary characteristics in representative localities; and (3) evaluate long-term landscape evolution rates and processes by analyzing stratigraphy in combination with luminescence geochronology. The new stratigraphic and geochronologic data presented in this report demonstrate the varying local significance of aeolian, alluvial fan, lacustrine (playa), and possibly Colorado River influence over a range of time scales. The dominant sand-transport direction in eastern Chuckwalla Valley is toward the northeast, consistent with the recognized regional west-to-east wind direction. However, occasional strong wind events from the north can transport large quantities of sand southward and temporarily reshape local geomorphic features. Influence of a northwest wind direction is also locally dominant around mountain ranges and controls the modern morphology of the Palen dune field. Modeled sand fluxes are on the order of 10 5 kilograms per meter width per year at the site of weather monitoring, 5 kilometers northwest of the Mule Mountains. Aeolian dunes are locally well developed and actively migrating. Their location and activity are determined largely by sediment supply from playa surfaces and ephemeral stream channels, which also control the dunes’ spatial extent and migration potential; stream channels act as both source and sink for aeolian sediment in this environment. Excavations at five sites along a northwest-to-southeast transect reveal that playa deposits formed around 266–226 thousand years ago south of the McCoy Mountains and immediately north of the present location of Interstate 10. The playa material is overlain by late Pleistocene to Holocene alluvial fan deposits. To the southeast (south of Interstate 10, but north of the Mule Mountains), we identified rapid accumulation of alluvial sediment around the time of the Last Glacial Maximum (23–20 thousand years ago), unconformably overlain by a locally varying assemblage of recent aeolian material or Holocene alluvial fan sediment. We have used stratigraphic characteristics and luminescence ages to calculate accumulation rates for sites in eastern Chuckwalla Valley, and thereby to identify spatial variation in landscape stability over decadal and longer time scales. If future solar-energy development plans are to include natural sand-transport corridors, plans would entail retaining the ability for sand to be transported eastward from the ephemeral stream channels and playas that supply sediment to the dunes, sand sheets, and sand ramps of Chuckwalla Valley, and also to allow for southward transport during episodic strong weather events several times per year. The aeolian sediment-transport corridors are dynamic spatially and temporally, reorganizing on the basis of seasonal changes to wind drift potential. Future landscape stability also will be determined by climate-driven changes to vegetation and thereby to aeolian sediment availability. In a warmer, drier climate, aeolian sediment activity is expected to increase, owing to a decrease in stabilizing vegetation cover and more extreme rain that supplies sediment to ephemeral stream channels and playas from which it is remobilized by wind.

California↗
USGS2012

Water quality and landscape processes of four watersheds in eastern Puerto Rico

Humid tropical regions occupy about a quarter of Earth's land surface, yet they contribute a substantially higher fraction of the water, solutes, and sediment discharged to the world's oceans. Nearly half of Earth's population lives in the tropics, and development stresses can potentially harm soil resources, water quality, and water supply and in addition increase landslide and flood hazards. Owing to Puerto Rico's steep topography, low water storage capacity, and dependence on trade-wind precipitation, the island's people, ecosystems, and water supply are vulnerable to extreme weather such as hurricanes, floods, and droughts. Eastern Puerto Rico offers a natural laboratory for separating geologic and land-cover influences from regional- and global-scale influences because of its various bedrock types and the changing land cover surrounding intact, mature forest of the Luquillo Experimental Forest. Accordingly, a multiyear assessment of hydrological and biogeochemical processes was designed to develop an understanding of the effects of these differences on local climate, streamflow, water quality, and ecosystems, and to form the basis for a long-term and event-based program of climate and hydrologic monitoring. Because infrequent, large storms play a major role in this landscape, we focused on high-runoff events, sampling 263 storms, including all major hurricanes from 1991 through 2005. The largest storms have profound geomorphic consequences, such as landslides, debris flows, deep gullying on deforested lands, excavation and suspension of sediment in stream channels, and delivery of a substantial fraction of annual stream sediment load. Large storms sometimes entrain ocean foam and spray causing high concentrations of seasalt-derived constituents in stream waters during the storm. Past deforestation and agricultural activities in the Cayaguás and Canóvanas watersheds accelerated erosion and soil loss, and this material continues to be remobilized during large storms. Nearly 5,000 routine and event samples were analyzed for parameters that allow determination of denudation rates based on suspended and dissolved loads; 860 of these samples were analyzed for a comprehensive suite of chemical constituents. The rivers studied are generally similar in water-quality characteristics, and windward or leeward aspect appears to exert a stronger influence on water quality than geology or land cover. Of samples analyzed for comprehensive chemistry and for sediment, 543 were collected at runoff rates greater than 1 millimeter per hour, 256 at rates exceeding 10 millimeters per hour, and 3 at rates exceeding 90 millimeters per hour. Streams have rarely been sampled during events with such high runoff rates. Rates of physical and chemical weathering are especially high, and physical denudation rates, forested watersheds included, are considerably greater than is expected for a steady-state system. The elevated physical erosion drives an increased particulate organic carbon flux, one that is large, important to the carbon cycle, and sustainable, because soil-carbon regeneration is rapid. The 15-year Water, Energy, and Biogeochemical Budget dataset, which includes discharge, field parameters, suspended sediment, major cations and anions, and nutrients, is available from the U.S. Geological Survey's National Water Information System (http://waterdata.usgs.gov/nwis). The dataset provides a baseline for characterizing future environmental change and will improve our understanding of the interdependencies of land, water, and biological resources and their responses to changes in climate and land use. Because eastern Puerto Rico resembles many tropical regions in terms of geology and patterns of development, implications from this study are transferable to other tropical regions facing deforestation, rapid land-use change, and climate change.

Professional Paper↗
USGS2020

High‐resolution dynamically downscaled rainfall and temperature projections for ecological life zones within Puerto Rico and for the U.S. Virgin Islands

The weather research and forecasting (WRF) model and a combination of the regional spectral model (RSM) and the Japanese Meteorological Agency Non‐Hydrostatic Model (NHM) were used to dynamically downscale selected CMIP5 global climate models to provide 2‐km projections with hourly model output for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Two 20‐year time slices were downscaled for historical (1986–2005) and future (2041–2060) periods following RCP8.5. Projected changes to mean and extreme temperature and precipitation were quantified for Holdridge life zones within Puerto Rico and for the U.S. Virgin Islands. The evaluation reveals a persistent cold bias for all islands in the U.S. Caribbean, a dry bias across Puerto Rico, and a wet bias on the windward side of mountains within the U.S. Virgin Islands. Despite these biases, model simulations show a robust drying pattern for all islands that is generally larger for Puerto Rico (25% annual rainfall reduction for some life zones) than the U.S. Virgin Islands (12% island average). The largest precipitation reductions are found during the more convectively active afternoon and evening hours. Within Puerto Rico, the model uncertainty increases for the wetter life zones, especially for precipitation. Across the life zones, both models project unprecedented maximum and minimum temperatures that may exceed 200 days annually above the historical baseline with only small changes to the frequency of extreme rainfall. By contrast, in the U.S. Virgin Islands, there is no consensus on the location of the largest drying relative to the windward and leeward side of the islands. However, the models project the largest increases in maximum temperature on the southern side of St. Croix and in higher elevations of St. Thomas and St. John.

Puerto Rico↗
USGS2001

Water-Resources Investigations in Wisconsin, 2001

The statewide average precipitation of 32.82 inches for the 2000 water year was 1.14 inches greater than the normal annual precipitation of 31.68 inches for water years 1961-90. Average precipitation values affecting streamflow conditions ranged from 90 percent of normal in northwest Wisconsin to 121 percent of normal in southeast Wisconsin (summary tables provided by Lyle Anderson, State Climatology Office, University of Wisconsin, Madison, written commun., 2001). Although precipitation for the year averaged only 104 percent of normal, the 2000 water year had extremes of beginning dry, turning very wet in the spring, and ending dry again. The year began below normal the first quarter of the year in all climatic divisions of the State. Record high temperatures in February and March and below normal snowfall brought an early spring and dry conditions statewide during March and April (Wisconsin Agricultural Statistics Service, 2000). The northern part of the State was still below normal for May. May and June brought record wet weather and cool temperatures for the southern half of the State: southeast Wisconsin received over 270 percent of normal rainfall for May, and southwest Wisconsin received over 250 percent of normal rainfall for June. June was the wettest month statewide, averaging 173 percent of normal. The last quarter of the year was more variable with the northern half of the State being below normal and the remainder near normal; heavy rains exceeding 10 inches for the month occurred in localized areas during July and September. Runoff differed for rivers throughout the State and ranged from 33 percent in east central Wisconsin to 166 percent in south central Wisconsin. Runoff was lowest (33 percent of the average annual runoff from 1964- 2000) for the Lake Michigan tributary Kewaunee River near Kewaunee, and highest (166 percent of the average annual runoff from 1974-2000) for the Pheasant Branch at Middleton station in south central Wisconsin. Departures of runoff in the 2000 water year as a percent of long-term average runoff in the State (determined using stations with drainage areas greater than 150 square miles and at least 20 years of record) are shown in Figure 4.

Wisconsin↗
USGS2015

Does the stress-gradient hypothesis hold water? Disentangling spatial and temporal variation in plant effects on soil moisture in dryland systems

The nature of the relationship between water limitation and facilitation has been one of the most contentious debates surrounding the stress-gradient hypothesis (SGH), which states that plant-plant interactions shift from competition to facilitation with increasing environmental stress. We take a closer look at the potential role of soil moisture in mediating plant-plant interaction outcomes by assessing effects of climate and soil texture on plant modulation of soil moisture. Using an empirically-parameterized soil moisture model, we simulated soil moisture dynamics beneath shrubs and in un-vegetated coarse and fine soils for 1000 sites in the Western United States with <700 mm mean annual precipitation. This threshold reflects the transition from dryland (<600 mm precipitation) to mesic ecosystems. Positive effects of shrubs on shallow soil moisture (i.e. the difference between shrub and interspace soil moisture) decreased along the aridity gradient when long-term average conditions were considered, contrary to expectations based on the SGH. Negative effects of shrubs on deeper soil moisture also increased with aridity. However, when extreme years were considered, positive effects of shrub on soil moisture were greatest at intermediate points along the spatial aridity gradient, consistent with a hump-backed model of plant-plant interactions. When viewed through time within a site, shrub effects on shallow soil moisture were positively related to precipitation, with more complex relationships exhibited in deeper soils Taken together, the results of this simulation study suggest that plant effects on soil moisture are predictable based on relatively general relationships between precipitation inputs and differential evaporation and transpiration rates between plant and interspace microsites that are largely driven by temperature. In particular, this study highlights the importance of differentiating between temporal and spatial variation in weather and climate, respectively, in determining plant effects on available soil moisture. Rather than focusing on the somewhat coarse-scale predictions of the SGH, it may be more beneficial to explicitly incorporate plant effects on soil moisture into predictive models of plant-plant interaction outcomes in drylands.

Functional Ecology↗
USGS2022

Late Paleoproterozoic to early Mesoproterozoic deposition of quartz arenites across southern Laurentia

Supermature siliciclastic sequences were deposited between 1.64 Ga and 1.59 Ga over a broad swath of southern Laurentia in the Archean, Penokean, Yavapai, and Mazatzal Provinces. These siliciclastic sequences are notable for their extreme mineralogical and chemical maturity, being devoid of detrital feldspar and ferromagnesian minerals, containing the clay mineral kaolinite (or its metamorphic equivalent, pyrophyllite), and having a chemical index of alteration >95. Such maturity is the result of a perfect confluence of tectonic and climatic conditions, including a stable continental crust with low topographic relief (the Archean, Penokean, and Yavapai Provinces ca. 1.70 Ga), a warm humid climate, an elevated level of atmospheric CO 2 , and relatively acidic pore fluids in the critical zone. The weathered detritus was transported and deposited by southward-flowing streams across the Archean, Penokean, and Yavapai Provinces, ultimately to be deposited on 1.66 Ga volcanic and volcaniclastic rocks in the Mazatzal continental arc along the southern margin of Laurentia.

Laurentia↗