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USGS2008

Salinity trends in the upper Colorado River basin upstream from the Grand Valley Salinity Control Unit, Colorado, 1986-2003

In 1974, the Colorado River Basin Salinity Control Act was passed into law. This law was enacted to address concerns regarding the salinity content of the Colorado River. The law authorized various construction projects in selected areas or "units" of the Colorado River Basin intended to reduce the salinity load in the Colorado River. One such area was the Grand Valley Salinity Control Unit in western Colorado. The U. S. Geological Survey has done extensive studies and research in the Grand Valley Salinity Control Unit that provide information to aid the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation and the Natural Resources Conservation Service in determining where salinity-control work may provide the best results, and to what extent salinity-control work was effective in reducing salinity concentrations and loads in the Colorado River. Previous studies have indicated that salinity concentrations and loads have been decreasing downstream from the Grand Valley Salinity Control Unit, and that the decreases are likely the result of salinity control work in these areas. Several of these reports; however, also document decreasing salinity loads upstream from the Grand Valley Salinity Control Unit. This finding was important because only a small amount of salinity-control work was being done in areas upstream from the Grand Valley Salinity Control Unit at the time the findings were reported (late 1990’s). As a result of those previous findings, the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation entered into a cooperative agreement with the U.S. Geological Survey to investigate salinity trends in selected areas bracketing the Grand Valley Salinity Control Unit and regions upstream from the Grand Valley Salinity Control Unit. The results of the study indicate that salinity loads were decreasing upstream from the Grand Valley Salinity Control Unit from 1986 through 2003, but the rates of decrease have slowed during the last 10 years. The average rate of decrease in salinity load upstream from the Grand Valley Salinity Control Unit was 10,700 tons/year. This accounts for approximately 27 percent of the decrease observed downstream from the Grand Valley Salinity Control Unit. Salinity loads were decreasing at the fastest rate (6,950 tons/year) in Region 4, which drains an area between the Colorado River at Cameo, Colorado (station CAMEO) and Colorado River above Glenwood Springs, Colorado (station GLEN) streamflow-gaging stations. Trends in salinity concentration and streamflow were tested at station CAMEO to determine if salinity concentration, streamflow, or both are controlling salinity loads upstream from the Grand Valley Salinity Control Unit. Trend tests of individual ion concentrations were included as potential indicators of what sources (based on mineral composition) may be controlling trends in the upper Colorado. No significant trend was detected for streamflow from 1986 to 2003 at station CAMEO; however, a significant downward trend was detected for salinity concentration. The trend slope indicates that salinity concentration is decreasing at a median rate of about 3.54 milligrams per liter per year. Five major ions (calcium, magnesium, sodium, sulfate, and chloride) were tested for trends. The results indicate that processes within source areas with rock and soil types (or other unidentified sources) bearing calcium, sodium, and sulfate had the largest effect on the downward trend in salinity load upstream from station CAMEO. Downward trends in salinity load resulting from ground-water sources and/or land-use change were thought to be possible reasons for the observed decreases in salinity loads; however, the cause or causes of the decreasing salinity loads are not fully understood. A reduction in the amount of ground-water percolation from Region 4 (resulting from work done through Federal irrigation system improvement programs as well as privately funded irrigation system improvements) has helped reduce annual salinity load from Region 4 by approximately 7,400 tons. This amount is equal to about 5.9 percent of the total decrease (125,000 tons, or about 6,950 tons/year) estimated to have occurred in Region 4 during water years 1986 through 2003. A geographic information system was used to quantify the change in the amount of irrigated land upstream from the Grand Valley Salinity Control Unit from 1993 through 2000. These data indicated that the amount of irrigated land did not change substantially, thus indicating that the downward trends in salinity load did not result from land-use change.

Colorado↗

USGS2022

Water-quality trends in surface waters of the Jemez River and Middle Rio Grande Basin from Cochiti to Albuquerque, New Mexico, 2004–19

Municipal water supply for Albuquerque, New Mexico, is provided, in part, through diversion of surface water from the Rio Grande by way of the San Juan-Chama Drinking Water Project diversion structure. Changes in surface-water quality along the Rio Grande and its tributaries upstream from the San Juan-Chama Drinking Water Project diversion structure are not well characterized. This study describes the methods and results of an analysis of surface-water-quality trends for selected constituents in the Rio Grande upstream from Albuquerque. Trends were evaluated for differing time periods ranging from 2004 to 2019 by using the Seasonal Kendall Tau (SKT) test and the Weighted Regressions on Time, Discharge, and Season (WRTDS) model. Water-quality data at three long-term sites were used for the trend analyses in this study, with the Cochiti and Alameda sites along the Rio Grande and the Jemez Canyon Dam site along the Jemez River, a tributary of the Rio Grande. The proximity of the Cochiti and Jemez Canyon Dam sites to dams is a drawback to the analysis because it is difficult to differentiate between the influence of dam management and the influence of streamflow on water-quality trends. The data used also did not fully meet desired levels of seasonal sampling density and had shorter periods of record than typically used for trend analysis, and this should be considered in the interpretation of these results. Study results indicate that concentrations, and thereby fluxes, are influenced by changes in streamflow at the Alameda site. Most trends from the WRTDS results, obtained by using flow-normalization, were downward for constituents at the Alameda site. Most constituents that were analyzed for trends by using SKT did not have a significant trend at any of the sites included in this study, indicating either that the water quality in the Middle Rio Grande Basin has been stable during the study period or that not enough samples were collected during different seasons to characterize the range of concentration variability with streamflow. The SKT test results indicate upward trends in concentrations of the following constituents: aluminum and antimony at the Alameda site, nitrate and nitrate plus nitrite at the Cochiti site, and potassium and antimony during the spring season at Jemez Canyon Dam. The SKT test results indicate a downward trend in cobalt at the Cochiti site that is subject to bias in the cobalt concentrations. SKT test results also indicate small, downward trends in Kjeldahl nitrogen at the Alameda and Cochiti sites. Concentrations of water-quality constituents were also compared to Federal and State water-quality standards to provide context and relevance to the results. No concentrations were above the national primary or secondary drinking water standards at the Alameda and Cochiti sites, but the Jemez Canyon Dam site did have concentrations above the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency primary drinking water standard for arsenic and above the national secondary drinking water standards for dissolved solids and aluminum. The Alameda and Cochiti sites are on reaches of the Rio Grande that are listed as impaired for gross alpha particles and the Alameda site is on a reach of the Rio Grande that is listed as impaired for Escherichia coli , but there were no consistent changes in concentrations of these constituents at the impaired locations.

New Mexico↗

USGS2003

Trends in chemical concentration in sediment cores from three lakes in New Jersey and one lake on Long Island, New York

Sediment cores were extracted from three lakes in northeastern New Jersey and one lake on western Long Island, New York, as part of the U.S. Geological Survey National Water-Quality Assessment Program. Sediment layers were dated by use of cesium-137 (137Cs), copper, lead, or dichlorodiphenyl-trichloroethane (DDT) profiles. Sediment layers were analyzed for seven selected trace elements, including arsenic, cadmium, chromium, lead, mercury, nickel, and zinc, and five hydrophobic organochlorine compounds, including chlordane, dieldrin, total DDT, total polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), and total polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs). All seven trace elements were detected throughout the cores from all four lakes. Concentrations of all elements, except arsenic, were elevated in the three cores from lakes within urbanized watersheds (Packanack Lake, Orange Reservoir, and Newbridge Pond) relative to the concentrations in the lake core collected below the largely forested, reference watershed (Clyde Potts Reservoir). Results of trend analyses indicate that concentrations of all trace elements, with the exception of arsenic and lead, were relatively constant throughout the core from the minimally urbanized Clyde Potts Reservoir. In urban lakes, significant upward trends in concentrations from deeper to shallower sediments were observed either to peak concentrations or throughout the core for all elements, with the exception of chromium at all lakes and arsenic and nickel at Orange Reservoir. This finding indicates that changes in population and land use in the urbanized watersheds over the period of sedimentary record have contributed to upward trends in trace-element concentrations. Although downward trends in concentrations were observed for some trace elements in the years after their concentrations peaked, concentrations of all trace elements in urban lake cores were higher in the most recently deposited sediments than at the base of each respective core. Lead concentrations over time were highly correlated with the population in the vicinity of the lake until the concentration peak in sediment deposited in the mid-1970’s. Concentrations of lead in lake sediment appear to be closely related to the use of leaded gasoline because lead concentrations generally decreased after the use of leaded gasoline was phased-out in the mid-1970’s. Zinc concentrations were highly correlated with population over the entire length of the core. In general, zinc concentrations increased in the three urbanized watersheds, probably in response to increasing population and vehicular use. This trend was not evident at Clyde Potts Reservoir, however, where vehicular traffic in the watershed is minimal. Detectable concentrations of chlordane, total DDT, and total PCBs were present in cores from all lakes; however, dieldrin was detected only in the Newbridge Pond and Packanack Lake cores. Concentrations generally were higher in cores from the urbanized Newbridge Pond and Orange Reservoir watersheds than in those from the minimally urbanized Clyde Potts Reservoir watershed. With the exception of chlordane in the Clyde Potts and Orange Reservoir cores, concentrations of the four organochlorine compounds had significant downward trends from peak concentrations to recently deposited sediment or non-significant trends throughout the core. On the basis of these findings and as a result of regulatory actions prohibiting the production and use of these compounds, downward trends in sedimentary concentrations are expected to continue; however, the persistence of these compounds indicates that a substantial amount of time may be required to purge them from the watersheds. Concentrations of PAHs in sediment generally increased with population growth and urbanization, probably as a result of increased fossil-fuel combustion (gasoline and home-heating fuels and other uses (roads and parking lots paved with asphalt) associated with increased urban development and vehicular traffic. This finding is supported by low concentrations of PAHs in Packanack Lake sediments in the 1930’s, before the watershed was urbanized and when automobiles were comparatively rare. As vehicular use and urbanization increase in these watersheds, the general increase of PAH concentrations in lake sediments can be expected to continue. Data from this study indicate that changes in population, land use, and chemical use in the urbanized watersheds over the period of sedimentary record have contributed to upward trends in concentrations of trace elements and hydrophobic organic compounds. Although downward trends were observed for some constituents in the years after their concentrations peaked, concentrations of most constituents in urban lake cores were higher in the most recently deposited sediments than at the base of each respective core and in the reference lake cores. Similar trends in concentrations of these constituents have been observed in sediment cores from other urban lakes across the United States.

New Jersey, New York↗

USGS2017

Greater sage-grouse population trends across Wyoming

The scale at which analyses are performed can have an effect on model results and often one scale does not accurately describe the ecological phenomena of interest (e.g., population trends) for wide-ranging species: yet, most ecological studies are performed at a single, arbitrary scale. To best determine local and regional trends for greater sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ) in Wyoming, USA, we modeled density-independent and -dependent population growth across multiple spatial scales relevant to management and conservation (Core Areas [habitat encompassing approximately 83% of the sage-grouse population on ∼24% of surface area in Wyoming], local Working Groups [7 regional areas for which groups of local experts are tasked with implementing Wyoming's statewide sage-grouse conservation plan at the local level], Core Area status (Core Area vs. Non-Core Area) by Working Groups, and Core Areas by Working Groups). Our goal was to determine the influence of fine-scale population trends (Core Areas) on larger-scale populations (Working Group Areas). We modeled the natural log of change in population size ( peak M lek counts) by time to calculate the finite rate of population growth ( λ ) for each population of interest from 1993 to 2015. We found that in general when Core Area status (Core Area vs. Non-Core Area) was investigated by Working Group Area, the 2 populations trended similarly and agreed with the overall trend of the Working Group Area. However, at the finer scale where Core Areas were analyzed separately, Core Areas within the same Working Group Area often trended differently and a few large Core Areas could influence the overall Working Group Area trend and mask trends occurring in smaller Core Areas. Relatively close fine-scale populations of sage-grouse can trend differently, indicating that large-scale trends may not accurately depict what is occurring across the landscape (e.g., local effects of gas and oil fields may be masked by increasing larger populations).

Wyoming↗

USGS2016

Including land cover change in analysis of greenness trends using all available Landsat 5, 7, and 8 images: A case study from Guangzhou, China (2000–2014)

Remote sensing has proven a useful way of evaluating long-term trends in vegetation “greenness” through the use of vegetation indices like Normalized Differences Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI). In particular, analyses of greenness trends have been performed for large areas (continents, for example) in an attempt to understand vegetation response to climate. These studies have been most often used coarse resolution sensors like Moderate Resolution Image Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR). However, trends in greenness are also important at more local scales, particularly in and around cities as vegetation offers a variety of valuable ecosystem services ranging from minimizing air pollution to mitigating urban heat island effects. To explore the ability to monitor greenness trends in and around cities, this paper presents a new way for analyzing greenness trends based on all available Landsat 5, 7, and 8 images and applies it to Guangzhou, China. This method is capable of including the effects of land cover change in the evaluation of greenness trends by separating the effects of abrupt and gradual changes, and providing information on the timing of greenness trends. An assessment of the consistency of surface reflectance from Landsat 8 with past Landsat sensors indicates biases in the visible bands of Landsat 8, especially the blue band. Landsat 8 NDVI values were found to have a larger bias than the EVI values; therefore, EVI was used in the analysis of greenness trends for Guangzhou. In spite of massive amounts of development in Guangzhou from 2000 to 2014, greenness was found to increase, mostly as a result of gradual change. Comparison of the greening magnitudes estimated from the approach presented here and a Simple Linear Trend (SLT) method indicated large differences for certain time intervals as the SLT method does not include consideration for abrupt land cover changes. Overall, this analysis demonstrates the importance of considering land cover change when analyzing trends in greenness from satellite time series in areas where land cover change is common.

Guangzhou↗

USGS2009

Trends in concentrations and use of agricultural herbicides for Corn Belt rivers, 1996-2006

Trends in the concentrations and agricultural use of four herbicides (atrazine, acetochlor, metolachlor, and alachlor) were evaluated for major rivers of the Corn Belt for two partially overlapping time periods: 1996-2002 and 2000-2006. Trends were analyzed for 11 sites on the mainstems and selected tributaries in the Ohio, Upper Mississippi, and Missouri River Basins. Concentration trends were determined using a parametric regression model designed for analyzing seasonal variability, flow-related variability, and trends in pesticide concentrations(SEAWAVE-Q).TheSEAWAVE-Qmodel accounts for the effect of changing flow conditions in order to separate changes caused by hydrologic conditions from changes caused by other factors, such as pesticide use. Most of the trends in atrazine and acetochlor concentrations for both time periods were relatively small and nonsignificant, but metolachlor and alachlor were dominated by varying magnitudes of concentration downtrends. Overall, with trends expressed as a percent change per year, trends in herbicide concentrations were consistent with trends in agricultural use; 84 of 88 comparisons for different sites, herbicides, and time periods showed no significant difference between concentration trends and agricultural use trends. Results indicate that decreasing use appears to have been the primary cause for the concentration downtrends during 1996-2006 and that, while there is some evidence that nonuse management factors may have reduced concentrations in some rivers, reliably evaluating the influence of these factors on pesticides in large streams and rivers will require improved, basin-specific information on both management practices and use over time. ?? 2009 American Chemical Society.

Environmental Science & Technology↗

USGS2021

Monthly river temperature trends across the US confound annual changes

Climate variations and human modifications of the water cycle continue to alter the Earth's surface water and energy exchanges. It is therefore critical to ascertain how these changes impact water quality and aquatic ecosystem habitat metrics such as river temperatures. Though river temperature trend analyses exist in the literature, studies on seasonal trends in river temperatures across large spatial extents, e.g. the contiguous United States (US), are limited. As we show through both annual and monthly trend analyses for 20 year ( n = 138 sites) and 40 year ( n = 40 sites) periods, annual temperature trends across the US mask extensive monthly variability. While most sites exhibited annual warming trends, these annual trends obscured sub-annual cooling trends at many sites. Monthly trend anomalies were spatially organized, with persistent regional patterns at both reference and human-impacted sites. The largest warming and cooling anomalies happened at human impacted sites and during summer months. Though our analysis points to coherence in trends as well as the overall impact of human activity in driving these patterns, we did not investigate the impact of river temperature observation accuracy on reported trends, an area needed for future work. Overall, these patterns emphasize the need to consider sub-annual behavior when managing the ecological impacts of river temperature throughout lotic networks.

Environmental Research Letters↗

USGS2016

Groundwater level trends and drivers in two northern New England glacial aquifers

We evaluated long-term trends and predictors of groundwater levels by month from two well-studied northern New England forested headwater glacial aquifers: Sleepers River, Vermont, 44 wells, 1992-2013; and Hubbard Brook, New Hampshire, 15 wells, 1979-2004. Based on Kendall Tau tests with Sen slope determination, a surprising number of well-month combinations had negative trends (decreasing water levels) over the respective periods. Sleepers River had slightly more positive than negative trends overall, but among the significant trends ( p < 0.1), negative trends dominated 67 to 40. At Hubbard Brook, negative trends outnumbered positive trends by a nearly 2:1 margin and all seven of the significant trends were negative. The negative trends occurred despite generally increasing trends in monthly and annual precipitation. This counterintuitive pattern may be a result of increased precipitation intensity causing higher runoff at the expense of recharge, such that evapotranspiration demand draws down groundwater storage. We evaluated predictors of month-end water levels by multiple regression of 18 variables related to climate, streamflow, snowpack, and prior month water level. Monthly flow and prior month water level were the two strongest predictors for most months at both sites. The predictive power and ready availability of streamflow data can be exploited as a proxy to extend limited groundwater level records over longer time periods.

New Hampshire, Vermont↗

USGS2022

Temporal greenness trends in stable natural land cover and relationships with climatic variability across the conterminous United States

Assessment of temporal trends in vegetation greenness and related influences aids understanding of recent change in terrestrial ecosystems and feedbacks from weather, climate, and environment. We analyzed 1-km normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) timeseries data (1989–2016) derived from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) and developed growing season time-integrated NDVI (GS-TIN) for estimating seasonal vegetation activity across stable natural land cover in the conterminous United States (CONUS). After removing areas from analysis that had experienced land cover conversion or modification, we conducted a monotonic trend analysis on the GS-TIN timeseries and found that significant positive temporal trends occurred over 35% of the area, while significant negative trends were observed over only 3.5%. Positive trends were prevalent in the forested lands of the eastern third of CONUS and far northwest, as well as in grasslands in the north central plains. We observed negative and nonsignificant trends mainly in the shrublands and grasslands across the northwest, southwest, and west central plains. To understand the relationship of climate variability with these temporal trends, we conducted partial and multiple correlation analyses on GS-TIN, growing season temperature, and water-year precipitation timeseries. The GS-TIN trends in northern forests were positively correlated with temperature. The GS-TIN trends in the central and western shrublands and grasslands were negatively correlated with temperature and positively correlated with precipitation. Our results revealed spatial patterns in vegetation greenness trends for different stable natural vegetation types across CONUS, enhancing understanding gained from prior studies based on coarser 8-km AVHRR data.

Earth Interactions↗

USGS2014

Great Lakes prey fish populations: a cross-basin overview of status and trends based on bottom trawl surveys, 1978-2013

The assessment of Great Lakes prey fish stocks have been conducted annually with bottom trawls since the 1970s by the Great Lakes Science Center, sometimes assisted by partner agencies. These stock assessments provide data on the status and trends of prey fish that are consumed by important commercial and recreational fishes. Although all these annual surveys are conducted using bottom trawls, they differ among the lakes in the proportion of the lake covered, seasonal timing, trawl gear used, and the manner in which the trawl is towed (across or along bottom contours). Because each assessment is unique, population indices were standardized to the highest value for a time series within each lake for the following prey species: Cisco (Coregonus artedi), Bloater (C. hoyi), Rainbow Smelt (Osmerus mordax), Alewife (Alosa pseudoharengus), and Round Goby (Neogobius melanostomus). In this report, standardized indices are presented in graphical form along with synopses to provide a short, informal cross-basin summary of the status and trends of principal prey fishes. There was basin-wide agreement in the trends of age-1 and older biomass for all prey species, with the highest concordance occurring for coregonids and Rainbow Smelt, and weaker concordance for Alewife. For coregonids, the highest biomass occurred from the mid-1980s to the mid-1990s. Rainbow Smelt biomass declined slowly and erratically during the last quarter century. Alewife biomass was generally higher from the early 1980s through 1990s across the Great Lakes, but since the early 1990s, trends have been divergent across the lakes, though there has been a downward trend in all lakes since 2005. Recently, Lake Huron has shown resurgence in biomass of Bloater, achieving 75% of its maximum record in 2012 due to recruitment of a succession of strong and moderate year classes that appeared in 2005-2011. Also, strong recruitment of the 2010 year class of Alewife has led to a sharp increase in biomass of Alewife in Lake Michigan. In general, trends in year-class strengths were less concordant across the basin and only coregonids showed statistical agreement across the upper Great Lakes. The appearance of strong and moderate year-classes of Bloater in Lake Huron in 2005- 2011 countered the trend of continuing weak year-classes of coregonids in Lakes Michigan and Superior. Not shown in our analysis is the appearance of the 2013 year-class of Bloater in Huron, the largest to date. There was no agreement in cross-basin trends in year-class strengths for Rainbow Smelt and Alewife, although there was agreement between pairs of lakes. Although there was statistical agreement in trends of age-0 and older Round Goby biomass among lakes where this species has successfully invaded (Michigan, Huron, Erie and Ontario), temporal patterns of biomass in each lake were different. Round Goby may be approaching equilibrium in Lake Erie, peaking in Lake Huron, and expanding in Lake Michigan. The trend in Lake Ontario remains unclear. Declining abundance in Lake Erie has corresponded with evidence that Round Goby have become increasingly incorporated into piscivore diets, e.g., Lake Trout, Walleye, Smallmouth Bass, Yellow Perch, and Burbot in Lakes Michigan, Huron, Erie, and Ontario. Round Goby continue to be absent from spring bottom trawl assessments in Lake Superior, but their presence in the harbors and embayments of Duluth and Thunder Bay (U.S. Geological Survey and Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources, unpublished data), suggests that there is potential for future colonization.

Great Lakes↗

USGS2011

Sources and preparation of data for assessing trends in concentrations of pesticides in streams of the United States, 1992–2010

This report updates a previously published water-quality dataset of 44 commonly used pesticides and 8 pesticide degradates suitable for a national assessment of trends in pesticide concentrations in streams of the United States. Water-quality samples collected from January 1992 through September 2010 at stream-water sites of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Water-Quality Assessment (NAWQA) Program and the National Stream Quality Accounting Network (NASQAN) were compiled, reviewed, selected, and prepared for trend analysis. The principal steps in data review for trend analysis were to (1) identify analytical schedule, (2) verify sample-level coding, (3) exclude inappropriate samples or results, (4) review pesticide detections per sample, (5) review high pesticide concentrations, and (6) review the spatial and temporal extent of NAWQA pesticide data and selection of analytical methods for trend analysis. The principal steps in data preparation for trend analysis were to (1) select stream-water sites for trend analysis, (2) round concentrations to a consistent level of precision for the concentration range, (3) identify routine reporting levels used to report nondetections unaffected by matrix interference, (4) reassign the concentration value for routine nondetections to the maximum value of the long-term method detection level (maxLT-MDL), (5) adjust concentrations to compensate for temporal changes in bias of recovery of the gas chromatography/mass spectrometry (GCMS) analytical method, and (6) identify samples considered inappropriate for trend analysis. Samples analyzed at the USGS National Water Quality Laboratory (NWQL) by the GCMS analytical method were the most extensive in time and space and, consequently, were selected for trend analysis. Stream-water sites with 3 or more water years of data with six or more samples per year were selected for pesticide trend analysis. The selection criteria described in the report produced a dataset of 21,988 pesticide samples at 212 stream-water sites. Only 21,144 pesticide samples, however, are considered appropriate for trend analysis.

Data Series↗

USGS2001

Summary of trends and status analysis for flow, nutrients, and sediments at selected nontidal sites, Chesapeake Bay basin, 1985-99

Water-quality and flow data from 31 sites in nontidal portions of the Chesapeake Bay Basin were analyzed to document annual nutrient and sediment loads and trends for the period 1985 through 1999 as part of an annual reevaluation and reporting for the Chesapeake Bay Program. Annual loads were estimated by use of the U.S. Geological Survey ESTIMATOR model. Trends were estimated using linear regression. Trends were reported for monthly mean flow, monthly load, flow-adjusted concentration, and flow-weighted concentration. Median yields and concentrations were calculated to help facilitate comparisons between basins. The drought of 1999 had pronounced effects on trend results. The trend in flow increased at 4 of the 31 sites, 8 fewer sites than in 1998. Ten less significant trends were estimated for nutrient and sediment loads compared to 1985-98. Trends in flow-weighted and flow-adjusted concentrations varied little by nutrient species and geographic location. Trends were generally downward or not significant for both the nitrogen and phosphorus species throughout the Chesapeake Bay Basin. Trends in flow-adjusted concentration indicated downward trends at most sites for nutrients and about half the sites for sediments, an indication that management actions are reducing nutrient and sediment concentrations.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2018

Factors affecting long-term trends in surface-water quality in the Gwynns Falls watershed, Baltimore City and County, Maryland, 1998–2016

Factors affecting water-quality trends in urban streams are not well understood, despite current regulatory requirements and considerable ongoing investments in gray and green infrastructure. To address this gap, long-term water-quality trends and factors affecting these trends were examined in the Gwynns Falls, Maryland, watershed during 1998–2016 in cooperation with Blue Water Baltimore. Data on water-quality constituents and potential factors of influence were obtained from multiple sources and compiled for analysis, with a focus on data collected as part of the National Science Foundation funded Long-Term Ecological Research project, the Baltimore Ecosystem Study. Variability in climate (specifically, precipitation) and land cover can overwhelm actions taken to improve water quality and can present challenges for meeting regulatory goals. Analysis of land cover during 2001–11 in the Gwynns Falls watershed indicated minimal change during the study time frame; therefore, land-cover change is likely not a factor affecting trends in water quality. However, a modest increase in annual precipitation and a significant increase in winter precipitation were apparent in the region. A higher proportion of runoff producing storms was observed in the winter and a lower proportion in the summer, indicating that climate change may affect water quality in the watershed. The increase in precipitation was not reflected in annual or seasonal trends of streamflow in the watershed. Nonetheless, these precipitation changes may exacerbate the inflow and infiltration of water to gray infrastructure and reduce the effectiveness of green infrastructure. For streamflow and most water-quality constituents examined, no discernable trends were noted over the timeframe examined. Despite the increases in precipitation, no trends were observed for annual or seasonal discharge at the various sites within the study area. In some locations, nitrate, phosphate, and total nitrogen show downward trends, and total phosphorus and chloride show upward trends. Sanitary sewer overflows (gray infrastructure) and best management practices (green infrastructure) were identified as factors affecting water-quality change. The duration of sanitary sewer overflows was positively correlated with annual loads of nutrients and bacteria, and the drainage area of best management practices was negatively correlated with annual loads of phosphate and sulfate. Results of the study indicate that continued investments in gray and green infrastructure are necessary for urban water-quality improvement. Although this outcome is not unexpected, long-term datasets such as the one used in this study, allow the effects of gray and green infrastructures to be quantified. Results of this study have implications for the Gwynns Falls watershed and its residents and Baltimore City and County managers. Moreover, outcomes are relevant to other watersheds in the metropolitan region that do not have the same long-term dataset. Further, this study has established a framework for ongoing statistical analysis of primary factors affecting urban water-quality trends as regulatory programs mature.

Maryland↗

USGS2004

Analysis of phosphorus trends and evaluation of sampling designs in the Quinebaug River Basin, Connecticut

A time-series analysis approach developed by the U.S. Geological Survey was used to analyze trends in total phosphorus and evaluate optimal sampling designs for future trend detection, using long-term data for two water-quality monitoring stations on the Quinebaug River in eastern Connecticut. Trend-analysis results for selected periods of record during 1971?2001 indicate that concentrations of total phosphorus in the Quinebaug River have varied over time, but have decreased significantly since the 1970s and 1980s. Total phosphorus concentrations at both stations increased in the late 1990s and early 2000s, but were still substantially lower than historical levels. Drainage areas for both stations are primarily forested, but water quality at both stations is affected by point discharges from municipal wastewater-treatment facilities. Various designs with sampling frequencies ranging from 4 to 11 samples per year were compared to the trend-detection power of the monthly (12-sample) design to determine the most efficient configuration of months to sample for a given annual sampling frequency. Results from this evaluation indicate that the current (2004) 8-sample schedule for the two Quinebaug stations, with monthly sampling from May to September and bimonthly sampling for the remainder of the year, is not the most efficient 8-sample design for future detection of trends in total phosphorus. Optimal sampling schedules for the two stations differ, but in both cases, trend-detection power generally is greater among 8-sample designs that include monthly sampling in fall and winter. Sampling designs with fewer than 8 samples per year generally provide a low level of probability for detection of trends in total phosphorus. Managers may determine an acceptable level of probability for trend detection within the context of the multiple objectives of the state?s water-quality management program and the scientific understanding of the watersheds in question. Managers may identify a threshold of probability for trend detection that is high enough to justify the agency?s investment in the water-quality sampling program. Results from an analysis of optimal sampling designs can provide an important component of information for the decision-making process in which sampling schedules are periodically reviewed and revised. Results from the study described in this report and previous studies indicate that optimal sampling schedules for trend detection may differ substantially for different stations and constituents. A more comprehensive statewide evaluation of sampling schedules for key stations and constituents could provide useful information for any redesign of the schedule for water-quality monitoring in the Quinebaug River Basin and elsewhere in the state.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2005

Variability of differences between two approaches for determining ground-water discharge and pumpage, including effects of time trends, Lower Arkansas River Basin, southeastern Colorado, 1998-2002

In the mid-1990s, the Colorado Division of Water Resources (CDWR) adopted rules governing measurement of tributary ground-water pumpage for the Arkansas River Basin. The rules allowed ground-water pumpage to be determined using one of two approaches?power conversion coefficient (PCC) or totalizing flowmeters (TFM). In addition, the rules allowed a PCC to be applied to the electrical power usage up to 4 years in the future to estimate ground-water pumpage. As a result of concerns about potential errors in applying the PCC approach forward in time, a study was done by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with CDWR and Colorado Water Conservation Board, to evaluate the variability in differences in pumpage between the two approaches, including the effects of time trends. This report compared measured ground-water pumpage using TFMs to computed ground-water pumpage using PCCs by developing statistical models of relations between explanatory variables, such as site, time, and pumping water level, and dependent variables, which are based on discharge, PCC, and pumpage. When differences in pumpage (diffP) were computed using PCC measurements and power consumption for the same year (1998-2002), the median diffP, depending on the year, ranged from +0.1 to -2.9 percent; the median diffP for the entire period was -1.5 percent. However, when diffP was computed using PCC measurements applied to the next year's power consumption, the median diffP was -0.3 percent; and when PCC measurements were applied 2, 3, or 4 years into the future, median diffPs were +1.8 percent for a 2-year forward lag and +5.3 percent for a 4-year forward lag, indicating that pumpage computed with the PCC approach, as generally applied under the ground-water pumpage measurement rules by CDWR, tended to overestimate pumpage as compared to pumpage using TFMs when PCC measurement was applied to future years of measured power consumption. Analyses were done to better understand the causes of the time trend; an estimate of the overall trend with time (uncorrected for pumping water-level changes) yielded a trend of about 2.2 percent per lag year for diffP. A separate analysis that incorporated a surface-water diversion term in the statistical model rendered the time-trend term insignificant, indicating that the time trend in the models served as a surrogate for other variables, some of which reflect underlying hydrologic conditions. A more precise explanation of the potential causes of the time trend was not obtained with the available data. However, the model results with the surface-water diversion term indicate that much of the trend of 2.2 percent per lag year in diffP resulted from applying a PCC to estimate pumpage under hydrologic conditions different from those under which the PCC was measured. Although there is no evidence to conclude that the upward time trend determined in the data for this 5-year period would hold in the future, historical static ground-water levels in the study area generally have exhibited small variations over multidecadal time scales. Therefore, the approximately 2 percent per lag year trend determined in these data is expected to be a reasonable guideline for estimating potential errors in the PCC approach resulting from temporally varying hydrologic conditions between time of PCC measurement and pumpage estimation. Comparisons also were made between total, or aggregated, pumpage for a network of wells as computed by the PCC approach and the TFM approach. For 100 wells and a lag of 4 years between PCC measurement and pumpage estimation, there was a 95-percent probability that the difference between total network pumpage measured by the PCC approach and that measured using a TFM would be between 5.2 and 14.4 percent. These estimates were based on a bias of 2.2 percent per lag year estimated for the period 1998-2002 during which hydrologic conditions were known to have changed. Using the same assumptions, the estimated d

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2007

Summary and trend analysis of water-quality data for the Oakes Test Area, southeastern North Dakota, 1984-2004

The Oakes Test Area is operated and maintained by the Garrison Diversion Conservancy District, under a cooperative agreement with the Bureau of Reclamation, to evaluate the effectiveness and environmental consequences of irrigation. As part of the evaluation, the Bureau of Reclamation collected water-quality samples from seven sites on the James River and the Oakes Test Area. The data were summarized and examined for trends in concentration. A nonparametric statistical test was used to test whether each concentration was increasing or decreasing with time for selected physical properties and constituents, and a trend slope was estimated for each constituent at each site. Trends were examined for two time periods, 1988-2004 and 1994-2004. Results varied by site and by constituent. All sites and all constituents tested had at least one statistically significant trend in the period 1988-2004. Sulfate, total dissolved solids, nitrate, and orthophosphate have significant positive trends at multiple sites with no significant negative trend at any site. Alkalinity and arsenic have single significant positive trends. Hardness, calcium, magnesium, sodium, sodium-adsorption ratio, potassium, and chloride have both significant positive and negative trends. Ammonia has a single significant negative trend. Fewer significant trends were identified in 1994-2004, and all but one were positive. The contribution to the James River from Oakes Test Area drainage appears to have little effect on water quality in the James River.

North Dakota↗

USGS2014

Sources, transport, and trends for selected trace metals and nutrients in the Coeur d'Alene and Spokane River Basins, Idaho, 1990-2013

Data collected at 18 streamflow-gaging and water-quality sampling sites in the Coeur d’Alene and Spokane River Basins of northern Idaho were used to estimate mean streamflow‑weighted concentrations and annual loads of total and dissolved cadmium, lead, and zinc, and total phosphorus (TP) and nitrogen (TN) for water years (WYs) 2009–13. Chronic Ambient Water Quality Criteria (AWQC) and AWQC ratios also were calculated to evaluate Idaho aquatic life criteria for chronic exposure to cadmium and zinc in streams. At four sites with a longer period of record, a Seasonal Kendall trend test was used to assess historical trends in the concentrations of total cadmium, lead, and zinc, and chronic AWQC ratios for cadmium and zinc during WYs 1990–2013. Concentrations of dissolved and total cadmium, lead, and zinc varied widely both at and among sites. At most sites, dissolved cadmium and zinc constituted most of the total concentrations; dissolved lead generally constituted less than 10 percent of the total lead concentration. Trace metal concentrations increased by 2 to 4 orders of magnitude along the South Fork Coeur d’Alene River (SFCDR) from near Mullan (site 2) downstream to near Pinehurst (site 13). The mean streamflow-weighted concentrations of total cadmium, lead, and zinc in the SFCDR near Pinehurst for WYs 2009–13 were 3.71, 61.4, and 514 micrograms per liter (μg/L), respectively. In the Coeur d’Alene River (CDR) near Harrison (site 15), downstream of the confluence of the metal-enriched SFCDR and the relatively dilute North Fork Coeur d’Alene River (NFCDR), the mean streamflow-weighted concentrations of total cadmium, lead, and zinc were 1.58, 125, and 236 μg/L, respectively. Trace‑metal concentrations were smaller in the Spokane River than in the CDR because of dilution and retention of trace metals in Coeur d’Alene Lake. The mean streamflow-weighted concentrations of total cadmium, lead, and zinc in the Spokane River near Post Falls (site 18) were 0.231, 2.91, and 48.9 μg/L, respectively. AWQC ratios indicate that cadmium and zinc concentrations met the chronic criteria (ratio of less than 1.0) for the protection of aquatic life at only three sites: the NFCDR at Enaville (site 1), the upper SFCDR near Mullan (site 2), and the St. Joe River near St. Maries (site 16). Cadmium and zinc concentrations at sites on the Spokane River (sites 17 and 18) generally were close to the chronic AWQC values. The sites with the largest chronic AWQC ratios in the Coeur d’Alene and Spokane River Basins for both cadmium and zinc were in the Canyon and Ninemile Creek basins (sites 3–6). Concentrations of TP and TN generally were low along the SFCDR downstream to Kellogg. From the SFCDR near Kellogg (site 9) downstream to the SFCDR above Pine Creek (site 11), the mean streamflow-weighted concentration of the nutrients TP and TN increased by 0.036 milligram per liter (mg/L) (200 percent) and 0.124 mg/L (78 percent), respectively. The increases in nutrient concentrations along the SFCDR likely are in response to discharge from wastewater‑treatment facilities. Mean streamflow-weighted concentrations for TP and TN (0.054 and 0.284 mg/L, respectively) were the highest in the sampling network in the SFCDR above Pine Creek (site 11). LOADEST modeling was used to relate mass transport, or load, of trace metals and nutrients to variations in streamflow and time. Results indicate that most of the cadmium and zinc load in the Coeur d’Alene and Spokane Rivers is derived from the SFCDR, and that most of the lead load is derived from the Coeur d’Alene River downstream of the confluence of the NFCDR and SFCDR. Major tributary sources of trace metals to the SFCDR are Canyon Creek and Ninemile Creek. Combined, these two tributaries contributed estimated mean loads of about 0.575 ton per year (ton/yr) of total cadmium, 5.29 ton/yr of total lead, and 90.9 ton/yr of total zinc to the SFCDR during WYs 2009–13. Groundwater discharge and tributaries near the Central Impoundment Area between SFCDR near Kellogg (site 9) and SFCDR near Smelterville (site 10) were other primary sources of cadmium and zinc. Combined, these sources contributed an estimated 1.39 ton/yr of total cadmium and 143 ton/yr of total zinc to the SFCDR during WYs 2009–13. Erosion and transport of sediment-bound lead contained in the CDR flood plain and on the river bottom between Cataldo (site 14) and Harrison (site 15) were the primary source of lead. During WYs 2009–13, the mean load of trace metals delivered to Coeur d’Alene Lake included about 4.66 ton/yr of total cadmium, 398 ton/yr of total lead, and 698 ton/yr of total zinc. About 99 percent of the trace-metal load to the lake was from the CDR as measured near site 15 at Harrison. During WYs 2009–13, about 1.48 ton/yr of cadmium, 18 ton/yr of lead, and 350 ton/yr of zinc were transported from Coeur d’Alene Lake into the Spokane River as measured at the lake outlet (site 17). During WYs 2009–13, the loads of TP and TN delivered from the Coeur d’Alene and St. Joe Rivers to Coeur d’Alene Lake were about equivalent. On average, the CDR transported about 93.6 tons of TP and 369 tons of TN, and the St. Joe River transported about 92.9 tons of TP and 360 tons of TN to the lake during 2009–13. About 52.9 ton/yr of TP and 628 ton/yr of TN were transported from Coeur d’Alene Lake to the Spokane River during WYs 2009–13. Results from Seasonal Kendall trend tests indicate statistically significant downward temporal trends during WYs 1990–2013 for total cadmium, lead, zinc, and chronic AWQC ratios of cadmium and zinc in the SFCDR at Elizabeth Park (site 8) and near Pinehurst (site 13), and in the CDR near Harrison (site 15). Statistically significant downward temporal trends for total lead, zinc, and the chronic AWQC ratio of zinc also occurred in the Spokane River near Post Falls (site 18) during WYs 1991–2013. Seasonal Kendall trend tests for WYs 2003–13 indicated statistically significant downward trends for total cadmium, zinc, and chronic AWQC ratios of cadmium and zinc in the SFCDR at Elizabeth Park (site 8). The Spokane River near Post Falls (site 18) had a statistically significant downward trend for total zinc during WYs 2003–13, and a significant upward trend for the chronic AWQC ratio of cadmium. No significant trends were found in trace-metal concentrations or chronic AWQC ratios in the SFCDR near Pinehurst (site 13) and the CDR near Harrison (site 15) during WYs 2003–13. Results from this study indicate that remedial activities conducted since the 1990s have been successful in reducing the concentrations and loads of trace metals in streams and rivers in the Coeur d’Alene and Spokane River Basins. Soils, sediment, surface water, and groundwater in areas of the Coeur d’Alene and Spokane River Basins are contaminated, and the hydrological relations between these media are complex and difficult to characterize. Trace metals have variable source areas, are transported differently depending on hydrologic conditions, and behave differently in response to remedial activities in upstream basins. Based on these findings, no single remedial action would be completely effective in reducing all trace metals to nontoxic concentrations throughout the Coeur d’Alene and Spokane River Basins. Instead, unique cleanup activities targeted at specific media and specific source areas may be necessary to achieve long-term water-quality goals.

Idaho↗

USGS2016

Water-quality trends and constituent-transport analysis for selected sampling sites in the Milltown Reservoir/Clark Fork River Superfund Site in the upper Clark Fork Basin, Montana, water years 1996–2015

During the extended history of mining in the upper Clark Fork Basin in Montana, large amounts of waste materials enriched with metallic contaminants (cadmium, copper, lead, and zinc) and the metalloid trace element arsenic were generated from mining operations near Butte and milling and smelting operations near Anaconda. Extensive deposition of mining wastes in the Silver Bow Creek and Clark Fork channels and flood plains had substantial effects on water quality. Federal Superfund remediation activities in the upper Clark Fork Basin began in 1983 and have included substantial remediation near Butte and removal of the former Milltown Dam near Missoula. To aid in evaluating the effects of remediation activities on water quality, the U.S. Geological Survey began collecting streamflow and water-quality data in the upper Clark Fork Basin in the 1980s. Trend analysis was done on specific conductance, selected trace elements (arsenic, copper, and zinc), and suspended sediment for seven sampling sites in the Milltown Reservoir/Clark Fork River Superfund Site for water years 1996–2015. The most upstream site included in trend analysis is Silver Bow Creek at Warm Springs, Montana (sampling site 8), and the most downstream site is Clark Fork above Missoula, Montana (sampling site 22), which is just downstream from the former Milltown Dam. Water year is the 12-month period from October 1 through September 30 and is designated by the year in which it ends. Trend analysis was done by using a joint time-series model for concentration and streamflow. To provide temporal resolution of changes in water quality, trend analysis was conducted for four sequential 5-year periods: period 1 (water years 1996–2000), period 2 (water years 2001–5), period 3 (water years 2006–10), and period 4 (water years 2011–15). Because of the substantial effect of the intentional breach of Milltown Dam on March 28, 2008, period 3 was subdivided into period 3A (October 1, 2005–March 27, 2008) and period 3B (March 28, 2008–September 30, 2010) for the Clark Fork above Missoula (sampling site 22). Trend results were considered statistically significant when the statistical probability level was less than 0.01. In conjunction with the trend analysis, estimated normalized constituent loads (hereinafter referred to as “loads”) were calculated and presented within the framework of a constituent-transport analysis to assess the temporal trends in flow-adjusted concentrations (FACs) in the context of sources and transport. The transport analysis allows assessment of temporal changes in relative contributions from upstream source areas to loads transported past each reach outflow. Trend results indicate that FACs of unfiltered-recoverable copper decreased at the sampling sites from the start of period 1 through the end of period 4; the decreases ranged from large for one sampling site (Silver Bow Creek at Warm Springs [sampling site 8]) to moderate for two sampling sites (Clark Fork near Galen, Montana [sampling site 11] and Clark Fork above Missoula [sampling site 22]) to small for four sampling sites (Clark Fork at Deer Lodge, Montana [sampling site 14], Clark Fork at Goldcreek, Montana [sampling site 16], Clark Fork near Drummond, Montana [sampling site 18], and Clark Fork at Turah Bridge near Bonner, Montana [sampling site 20]). For period 4 (water years 2011–15), the most notable changes indicated for the Milltown Reservoir/Clark Fork River Superfund Site were statistically significant decreases in FACs and loads of unfiltered-recoverable copper for sampling sites 8 and 22. The period 4 changes in FACs of unfiltered-recoverable copper for all other sampling sites were not statistically significant. Trend results indicate that FACs of unfiltered-recoverable arsenic decreased at the sampling sites from period 1 through period 4 (water years 1996–2015); the decreases ranged from minor (sampling sites 8–20) to small (sampling site 22). For period 4 (water years 2011–15), the most notable changes indicated for the Milltown Reservoir/Clark Fork River Superfund Site were statistically significant decreases in FACs and loads of unfiltered-recoverable arsenic for sampling site 8 and near statistically significant decreases for sampling site 22. The period 4 changes in FACs of unfiltered-recoverable arsenic for all other sampling sites were not statistically significant. Trend results indicate that FACs of suspended sediment decreased at the sampling sites from period 1 through period 4 (water years 1996–2015); the decreases ranged from moderate (sampling site 8) to small (sampling sites 11–22). For period 4 (water years 2011–15), the changes in FACs of suspended sediment were not statistically significant for any sampling sites. The reach of the Clark Fork from Galen to Deer Lodge is a large source of metallic contaminants and suspended sediment, which strongly affects downstream transport of those constituents. Mobilization of copper and suspended sediment from flood-plain tailings and the streambed of the Clark Fork and its tributaries within the reach results in a contribution of those constituents that is proportionally much larger than the contribution of streamflow from within the reach. Within the reach from Galen to Deer Lodge, unfiltered-recoverable copper loads increased by a factor of about 4 and suspended-sediment loads increased by a factor of about 5, whereas streamflow increased by a factor of slightly less than 2. For period 4 (water years 2011–15), unfiltered-recoverable copper and suspended-sediment loads sourced from within the reach accounted for about 41 and 14 percent, respectively, of the loads at Clark Fork above Missoula (sampling site 22), whereas streamflow sourced from within the reach accounted for about 4 percent of the streamflow at sampling site 22. During water years 1996–2015, decreases in FACs and loads of unfiltered-recoverable copper and suspended sediment for the reach generally were proportionally smaller than for most other reaches. Unfiltered-recoverable copper loads sourced within the reaches of the Clark Fork between Deer Lodge and Turah Bridge near Bonner (just upstream from the former Milltown Dam) were proportionally smaller than contributions of streamflow sourced from within the reaches; these reaches contributed proportionally much less to copper loading in the Clark Fork than the reach between Galen and Deer Lodge. Although substantial decreases in FACs and loads of unfiltered-recoverable copper and suspended sediment were indicated for Silver Bow Creek at Warm Springs (sampling site 8), those substantial decreases were not translated to downstream reaches between Deer Lodge and Turah Bridge near Bonner. The effect of the reach of the Clark Fork from Galen to Deer Lodge as a large source of copper and suspended sediment, in combination with little temporal change in those constituents for the reach, contributes to this pattern. With the removal of the former Milltown Dam in 2008, substantial amounts of contaminated sediments that remained in the Clark Fork channel and flood plain in reach 9 (downstream from Turah Bridge near Bonner) became more available for mobilization and transport than before the dam removal. After the removal of the former Milltown Dam, the Clark Fork above Missoula (sampling site 22) had statistically significant decreases in FACs of unfiltered-recoverable copper in period 3B (March 28, 2008, through water year 2010) that continued in period 4 (water years 2011–15). Also, decreases in FACs of unfiltered-recoverable arsenic and suspended sediment were indicated for period 4 at this site. The decrease in FACs of unfiltered-recoverable copper for sampling site 22 during period 4 was proportionally much larger than the decrease for the Clark Fork at Turah Bridge near Bonner (sampling site 20). Net mobilization of unfiltered-recoverable copper and arsenic from sources within reach 9 are smaller for period 4 than for period 1 when the former Milltown Dam was in place, providing evidence that contaminant source materials have been substantially reduced in reach 9.

Montana↗