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USGS1996

Trends in nutrients and suspended solids at the Fall Line of five tributaries to the Chesapeake Bay in Virginia, July 1988 through June 1995

Water-quality samples were collected at the Fall Line of five tributaries to the Chesapeake Bay in Virginia during a 6- to 7-year period. The water-quality data were used to estimate loads of nutrients and suspended solids from these tributaries to the non-tidal part of Chesapeake Bay Basin and to identify trends in water quality. Knowledge of trends in water quality is required to assess the effectiveness of nutrient manage- ment strategies in the five basins. Multivariate log-linear regression and the seasonal Kendall test were used to estimate flow-adjusted trends in constituent concentration and load. Results of multivariate log-linear regression indicated a greater number of statistically significant trends than the seasonal Kendall test; how-ever, when both methods indicated a significant trend, both agreed on the direction of the trend. Interpre- tation of the trend estimates for this report was based on results of the parametric regression method. No significant trends in total nitrogen concentration were detected at the James River monitoring station from July 1988 through June 1995, though total Kjeldahl nitrogen concen- tration decreased slightly in base-flow samples. Total phosphorus concentration decreased about 29 percent at this station during the sampling period. Most of the decrease can be attributed to reductions in point-source phosphorus loads in 1988 and 1989, especially the phosphate detergent ban of 1988. No significant trends in total suspended solids were observed at the James River monitoring station, and no trends in runoff- derived constituents were interpreted for this river. Significant decreases were detected in concentrations of total nitrogen, total Kjeldahl nitrogen, dissolved nitrite-plus-nitrate nitrogen, and total suspended solids at the Rappahannock River monitoring station between July 1988 and June 1995. A similar downward trend in total phosphorus concentration was significant at the 90-percent confidence level, but not the 95-percent confidence level. These decreases can be attributed primarily to reductions in nonpoint nutrient and sediment loads, and may have been partially caused by implementation of best management practices on agricultural and silvicultural land. Flow-adjusted trends observed at the Appomattox, Pamunkey, and Mattaponi monitoring stations were more difficult to explain than those at the James and Rappahannock stations. Total Kjeldahl nitrogen and total phosphorus increased 16 and 23 percent, respectively, at the Appomattox River monitoring station from July 1989 through June 1995. Total phosphorus concentration increased about 46 percent at the Pamunkey River monitoring station between July 1989 and June 1995. At the Mattaponi River monitoring station, decreases in dissolved nitrite-plus-nitrate nitrogen were offset by increases in total Kjeldahl nitrogen, resulting in no net change in total nitrogen concentration from October 1989 through June 1995.

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

USGS1997

Water-quality trends for streams and reservoirs in the Research Triangle area of North Carolina, 1983-95

Water-quality and streamflow monitoring data, collected from 1983 to 1995, were analyzed for 34 stream and reservoir sites in a seven-county region within the upper Neuse and upper Cape Fear River Basins. Early data (1983-88) were compiled from U.S. Geological Survey water-quality studies and from the ambient water-quality monitoring network of the North Carolina Department of Environment, Health, and Natural Resources. Analyses of major ions, nutrients, metals, trace elements, and synthetic organic compounds were compiled from samples collected by the U.S. Geological Survey from 1988 to 1995 as part of a continuing project to monitor the water quality of surface-water supplies in the Research Triangle area of North Carolina, and from the North Carolina Department of Environment, Health, and Natural Resources ambient water-quality monitoring network. This report presents the results of analysis of consistently increasing or decreasing trends in concentrations of nitrogen and phosphorus species, suspended sediment, suspended solids, sodium, chloride, iron, manganese, zinc, and chlorophyll a from seasonal Kendall trend analysis on flow-adjusted concentrations for streams and concentrations in lakes. Total phosphorus concentrations also were tested for a step decrease in concentration (step trend) associated with the North Carolina phosphate-detergent ban of 1988. For some other constituents, insufficient data or values below laboratory detection limits precluded trend analysis. A regionwide decrease in total phosphorus, ranging from 25 to 81 percent, was observed that coincided with increased phosphorus removal efforts at municipal wastewater-treatment facilities in the region and the statewide phosphate-detergent ban. Most sites had stable or decreasing trends in nitrogen concentrations; however, increasing trends occurred in the Neuse River near Clayton and at Smithfield, both of which are downstream from the developing Raleigh-Durham area. Chlorophyll a concentrations have increased by 17 to 52 percent per year at monitored reservoirs, except at Cane Creek Reservoir and Lake Michie where there was no trend. No significant trends in suspended-sediment concentrations were observed. Long-term sodium concentrations were available for only a few sites. Of these, decreasing concentrations were observed in the Neuse River at Smithfield and Cane Creek near Orange Grove, and an increasing concentration was observed in University Lake. At most sites, concentrations of manganese, iron, and zinc were stable. Decreasing iron trends were observed in Little River and Cane Creek Reservoirs and Lake Michie. Cane Creek Reservoir also had a decreasing manganese trend. Seven sites, all downstream from wastewater-treatment facilities, were analyzed for zinc trends. A decreasing trend was observed in two of these--Knap of Reeds Creek and Little Lick Creek.

North Carolina↗

USGS2016

Population trends for North American winter birds based on hierarchical models

Managing widespread and persistent threats to birds requires knowledge of population dynamics at large spatial and temporal scales. For over 100 yrs, the Audubon Christmas Bird Count (CBC) has enlisted volunteers in bird monitoring efforts that span the Americas, especially southern Canada and the United States. We employed a Bayesian hierarchical model to control for variation in survey effort among CBC circles and, using CBC data from 1966 to 2013, generated early-winter population trend estimates for 551 species of birds. Selecting a subset of species that do not frequent bird feeders and have ≥25% range overlap with the distribution of CBC circles (228 species) we further estimated aggregate (i.e., across species) trends for the entire study region and at the level of states/provinces, Bird Conservation Regions, and Landscape Conservation Cooperatives. Moreover, we examined the relationship between ten biological traits—range size, population size, migratory strategy, habitat affiliation, body size, diet, number of eggs per clutch, age at sexual maturity, lifespan, and tolerance of urban/suburban settings—and CBC trend estimates. Our results indicate that 68% of the 551 species had increasing trends within the study area over the interval 1966–2013. When trends were examined across the subset of 228 species, the median population trend for the group was 0.9% per year at the continental level. At the regional level, aggregate trends were positive in all but a few areas. Negative population trends were evident in lower latitudes, whereas the largest increases were at higher latitudes, a pattern consistent with range shifts due to climate change. Nine of 10 biological traits were significantly associated with median population trend; however, none of the traits explained >34% of the deviance in the data, reflecting the indirect relationships between population trend estimates and species traits. Trend estimates based on the CBC are broadly congruent with estimates based on the North American Breeding Bird Survey, another large-scale monitoring program. Both of these efforts, conducted by citizen scientists, will be required going forward to ensure robust inference about population dynamics in the face of climate and land cover changes.

Ecosphere↗

USGS2002

Problems in evaluating regional and local trends in temperature: An example from eastern Colorado, USA

We evaluated long-term trends in average maximum and minimum temperatures, threshold temperatures, and growing season in eastern Colorado, USA, to explore the potential shortcomings of many climate-change studies that either: (1) generalize regional patterns from single stations, single seasons, or a few parameters over short duration from averaging dissimilar stations: or (2) generalize an average regional pattern from coarse-scale general circulation models. Based on 11 weather stations, some trends were weakly regionally consistent with previous studies of night-time temperature warming. Long-term (80 + years) mean minimum temperatures increased significantly (P < 0.2) in about half the stations in winter, spring, and autumn and six stations had significant decreases in the number of days per year with temperatures ??? - 17.8 ??C (???0??F). However, spatial and temporal variation in the direction of change was enormous for all the other weather parameters tested, and, in the majority of tests, few stations showed significant trends (even at P < 0.2). In summer, four stations had significant increases and three stations had significant decreases in minimum temperatures, producing a strongly mixed regional signal. Trends in maximum temperature varied seasonally and geographically, as did trends in threshold temperature days ???32.2??C (???90??F) or days ???37.8??C (???100??F). There was evidence of a subregional cooling in autumn's maximum temperatures, with five stations showing significant decreasing trends. There were many geographic anomalies where neighbouring weather stations differed greatly in the magnitude of change or where they had significant and opposite trends. We conclude that sub-regional spatial and seasonal variation cannot be ignored when evaluating the direction and magnitude of climate change. It is unlikely that one or a few weather stations are representative of regional climate trends, and equally unlikely that regionally projected climate change from coarse-scale general circulation models will accurately portray trends at sub-regional scales. However, the assessment of a group of stations for consistent more qualitative trends (such as the number of days less than - 17.8??C, such as we found) provides a reasonably robust procedure to evaluate climate trends and variability. Copyright ?? 2002 Royal Meteorological Society.

International Journal of Climatology↗

USGS2023

Long-term trends of local bird populations based on monitoring schemes: Are they suitable for justifying management measures?

Local biodiversity monitoring is important to assess the effects of global change, but also to evaluate the performance of landscape and wildlife protection, since large-scale assessments may buffer local fluctuations, rare species tend to be underrepresented, and management actions are usually implemented on local scales. We estimated population trends of 58 bird species using open-population N-mixture models based on count data in two localities in southeastern Spain, which have been collected according to a citizen science monitoring program (SACRE, Monitoring Common Breeding Birds in Spain) over 21 and 15 years, respectively. We performed different abundance models for each species and study area, accounting for imperfect detection of individuals in replicated counts. After selecting the best models for each species and study area, empirical Bayes methods were used for estimating abundances, which allowed us to calculate population growth rates ( λ ) and finally population trends. We also compared the two local population trends and related them with national and European trends, and species functional traits (phenological status, dietary, and habitat specialization characteristics). Our results showed increasing trends for most species, but a weak correlation between populations of the same species from both study areas. In general, local population trends were consistent with the trends observed at national and continental scales, although contrasting patterns exist for several species, mainly with increasing local trends and decreasing Spanish and European trends. Moreover, we found no evidence of a relationship between population trends and species traits. We conclude that using open-population N-mixture models is an appropriate method to estimate population trends, and that citizen science-based monitoring schemes can be a source of data for such analyses. This modeling approach can help managers to assess the effectiveness of their actions at the local level in the context of global change.

Journal of Ornithology↗

USGS2020

Low streamflow trends at human-impacted and reference basins in the United States

We present a continent-scale exploration of trends in annual 7-day low streamflows at 2482 U.S. Geological Survey streamgages across the conterminous United States over the past 100, 75, and 50 years (1916–2015, 1941–2015 and 1966–2015). We used basin characteristics to identify subsets of study basins representative of reference basins with streamflow relatively free from human effects (n = 259), and predominantly agricultural basins (n = 78), regulated basins (n = 220), and urban basins (n = 121). Trend significance was computed using the Mann-Kendall test considering short- and long-term persistence. Lag-one autocorrelation tests of detrended 7-day low streamflows for all gage classes show that time-series independence is not an appropriate assumption for annual low streamflow data at many basins. Among all study gages, upward trends (wetter conditions) in 7-day low streamflows outnumbered downward trends (drier conditions) approximately 2–1 for the 75- and 100-year trend periods—50-year trends indicated roughly equal numbers of increases and decreases. Increases in 7-day low streamflow were consistently observed for all time periods throughout much of the northeastern quadrant of the conterminous U.S. including western New England and the Mid-Atlantic, the southeastern Great Lakes basin, northern Ohio River basin, and the Upper Mississippi River and eastern Missouri River basins. Decreases in 7-day low streamflow were consistently observed for all time periods at many gages in the southeastern U.S. and in the northwestern U.S. in much of Idaho and northwestern Washington. Overall, we observed greater percentages of statistically significant trends at gages with human-induced influences than at reference gages. Low-flow trends at agricultural gages were regionally consistent with trends at reference gages. Regulated basins had many statistically significant upward trends for all three time periods tested, which may be attributed in part to substantial increases in dam-related storage prior to 1970. Urban gages had the greatest percentage of significant decreases in 7-day low flows compared to all other gage classes even though most urban gages saw upward trends in mean annual flows. Urban gages also had the greatest percentage of significant increases in low flows second only to regulated gages, highlighting that urban development can increase or decrease low streamflows depending on the basin-specific development.

Conterminous United States↗

USGS2026

As above, so below? A framework for integrating long-term water quantity trends reveals divergent patterns in groundwater and low streamflow across the United States

Climate, land-use, and disturbance drive long-term global trends in groundwater levels and streamflow. At large scales, these trends are typically considered separately, despite the well-established concept that groundwater and surface water comprise a single resource. Joint trend assessment at national scales is challenging because it requires pairing and aggregating data from spatially disparate streamflow and groundwater monitoring sites for which no established framework exists. Here, we evaluate alternative approaches for integrating groundwater and streamflow data to enable joint trend analysis—a critical step toward understanding how water-budget components respond concurrently and interactively to environmental drivers. Mann–Kendall trends were computed for individual groundwater (annual mean depth) and streamflow (annual low of 7 d averages) sites across the U.S over 21- (2000–2020), 31- (1990–2020), and 41-year (1980–2020) periods. Regional Kendall trends were calculated using five spatially contiguous and noncontiguous regional classifications for aggregation based on subsurface (e.g. aquifer, geology) and surface (e.g. watershed, landscape) characteristics. Site-level results revealed contrasting trends, with tendencies toward increasing low flows (wetting) and increasing groundwater depths (drying). Agreement between streamflow and groundwater trends increased with regional aggregation and longer timeframes, though persistent skew toward streamflow wetting and groundwater drying remained. Results varied by region and trend period, with notable consistencies: unified drying in the West/Southwest and wetting in the Upper Midwest. Directional mismatches in long-term trends were prominent in the High Plains and Mississippi Alluvial Plain, whereas near-term mismatches were most evident in the Northwest. Aggregation by hydrologic landscape regions (HLR) yielded the greatest agreement between groundwater and streamflow trends. These findings indicate that coupled responses may represent combined influences of climate, relief, and geology, as captured by HLR, more strongly than geography or geology alone. Integrated water availability assessments may benefit from a multi-characteristic classification framework to treat groundwater and surface water as a unified resource.

Environmental Research: Water↗

USGS2025

Evaluating detection of temporal trends in long-term freshwater fisheries data to inform future monitoring efforts

Objective Florida’s Freshwater Fisheries Long-Term Monitoring Program was implemented in 2006 to track changes in freshwater fish populations and communities. As part of an evaluation of the program, this study used a simulation framework to assess trend detection for fish abundance and biomass indices and how sampling intensity (number of samples per year) and frequency (number of years) can influence detection of these trends. Methods Using count and weight data from fall electrofishing samples collected between 2006 and 2021 from 21 lakes, trends were simulated for annual mean count and weight over a 10-year period that ranged from −70% to +200%. In all, simulations were performed for seven game fish species and three management-relevant groups (large nongame, nonnative, and prey species). For sampling intensity, data were simulated with a range of sample sizes, from 10 to 40 electrofishing transects or the maximum number available for a given lake. For sampling frequency, data were simulated for different sampling schedules that included sampling 1 year followed by 1- or 2-year breaks (4–5 years of sampling in a 10-year period), sampling two consecutive years followed by 1- or 2-year breaks (6–7 years of sampling in a 10-year period), and sampling the first 5 years only. Results Simulations based on weight and count data yielded similar results, but the effect of sampling frequency and sampling schedule varied by species, management group, and lake. Trend detection was lower and more variable when mean counts and weights of fish in electrofishing samples were low. Overall, at least a 60% increase or 40% decrease over a 10-year period was typically needed for trends in mean weight and count to be detected at least 80% of the time in at least half of the lakes. Increasing sampling intensity did not substantially improve trend detection for lower-magnitude changes, but reducing sample intensity to a minimum of 10 electrofishing transects per year would have a large negative effect on trend detection in almost all lakes. Detection of trends improved as the number of years sampled increased, but ideally, sampling should be spaced throughout the entire 10-year period to capture the full magnitude of change. Sampling every year generally resulted in better trend detection and for many species and groups was the only sampling schedule that resulted in all study lakes achieving the 80% target detection level. Of the alternative schedules considered, those involving 2 years of consecutive sampling outperformed those with only 1 year of sampling followed by a 1- or 2-year break. Conclusions Relatively large changes in mean count and weight were required to detect trends over a 10-year period, but there was no clear advantage of using count or weight data for monitoring purposes. Further, study results support the current sampling intensity, but trend detection is optimized at higher mean catch and weight values. Although sampling every year is ideal, an alternative schedule involving sampling two consecutive years with 1- or 2-year breaks could be considered in certain situations. These results will be important for informing future decisions regarding Florida’s Freshwater Fisheries Long-Term Monitoring Program and other monitoring initiatives.

North American Journal of Fisheries Management.↗

USGS2008

Salinity trends in the upper Colorado River basin upstream from the Grand Valley Salinity Control Unit, Colorado, 1986-2003

In 1974, the Colorado River Basin Salinity Control Act was passed into law. This law was enacted to address concerns regarding the salinity content of the Colorado River. The law authorized various construction projects in selected areas or "units" of the Colorado River Basin intended to reduce the salinity load in the Colorado River. One such area was the Grand Valley Salinity Control Unit in western Colorado. The U. S. Geological Survey has done extensive studies and research in the Grand Valley Salinity Control Unit that provide information to aid the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation and the Natural Resources Conservation Service in determining where salinity-control work may provide the best results, and to what extent salinity-control work was effective in reducing salinity concentrations and loads in the Colorado River. Previous studies have indicated that salinity concentrations and loads have been decreasing downstream from the Grand Valley Salinity Control Unit, and that the decreases are likely the result of salinity control work in these areas. Several of these reports; however, also document decreasing salinity loads upstream from the Grand Valley Salinity Control Unit. This finding was important because only a small amount of salinity-control work was being done in areas upstream from the Grand Valley Salinity Control Unit at the time the findings were reported (late 1990’s). As a result of those previous findings, the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation entered into a cooperative agreement with the U.S. Geological Survey to investigate salinity trends in selected areas bracketing the Grand Valley Salinity Control Unit and regions upstream from the Grand Valley Salinity Control Unit. The results of the study indicate that salinity loads were decreasing upstream from the Grand Valley Salinity Control Unit from 1986 through 2003, but the rates of decrease have slowed during the last 10 years. The average rate of decrease in salinity load upstream from the Grand Valley Salinity Control Unit was 10,700 tons/year. This accounts for approximately 27 percent of the decrease observed downstream from the Grand Valley Salinity Control Unit. Salinity loads were decreasing at the fastest rate (6,950 tons/year) in Region 4, which drains an area between the Colorado River at Cameo, Colorado (station CAMEO) and Colorado River above Glenwood Springs, Colorado (station GLEN) streamflow-gaging stations. Trends in salinity concentration and streamflow were tested at station CAMEO to determine if salinity concentration, streamflow, or both are controlling salinity loads upstream from the Grand Valley Salinity Control Unit. Trend tests of individual ion concentrations were included as potential indicators of what sources (based on mineral composition) may be controlling trends in the upper Colorado. No significant trend was detected for streamflow from 1986 to 2003 at station CAMEO; however, a significant downward trend was detected for salinity concentration. The trend slope indicates that salinity concentration is decreasing at a median rate of about 3.54 milligrams per liter per year. Five major ions (calcium, magnesium, sodium, sulfate, and chloride) were tested for trends. The results indicate that processes within source areas with rock and soil types (or other unidentified sources) bearing calcium, sodium, and sulfate had the largest effect on the downward trend in salinity load upstream from station CAMEO. Downward trends in salinity load resulting from ground-water sources and/or land-use change were thought to be possible reasons for the observed decreases in salinity loads; however, the cause or causes of the decreasing salinity loads are not fully understood. A reduction in the amount of ground-water percolation from Region 4 (resulting from work done through Federal irrigation system improvement programs as well as privately funded irrigation system improvements) has helped reduce annual salinity load from Region 4 by approximately 7,400 tons. This amount is equal to about 5.9 percent of the total decrease (125,000 tons, or about 6,950 tons/year) estimated to have occurred in Region 4 during water years 1986 through 2003. A geographic information system was used to quantify the change in the amount of irrigated land upstream from the Grand Valley Salinity Control Unit from 1993 through 2000. These data indicated that the amount of irrigated land did not change substantially, thus indicating that the downward trends in salinity load did not result from land-use change.

Colorado↗

USGS2022

Water-quality trends in surface waters of the Jemez River and Middle Rio Grande Basin from Cochiti to Albuquerque, New Mexico, 2004–19

Municipal water supply for Albuquerque, New Mexico, is provided, in part, through diversion of surface water from the Rio Grande by way of the San Juan-Chama Drinking Water Project diversion structure. Changes in surface-water quality along the Rio Grande and its tributaries upstream from the San Juan-Chama Drinking Water Project diversion structure are not well characterized. This study describes the methods and results of an analysis of surface-water-quality trends for selected constituents in the Rio Grande upstream from Albuquerque. Trends were evaluated for differing time periods ranging from 2004 to 2019 by using the Seasonal Kendall Tau (SKT) test and the Weighted Regressions on Time, Discharge, and Season (WRTDS) model. Water-quality data at three long-term sites were used for the trend analyses in this study, with the Cochiti and Alameda sites along the Rio Grande and the Jemez Canyon Dam site along the Jemez River, a tributary of the Rio Grande. The proximity of the Cochiti and Jemez Canyon Dam sites to dams is a drawback to the analysis because it is difficult to differentiate between the influence of dam management and the influence of streamflow on water-quality trends. The data used also did not fully meet desired levels of seasonal sampling density and had shorter periods of record than typically used for trend analysis, and this should be considered in the interpretation of these results. Study results indicate that concentrations, and thereby fluxes, are influenced by changes in streamflow at the Alameda site. Most trends from the WRTDS results, obtained by using flow-normalization, were downward for constituents at the Alameda site. Most constituents that were analyzed for trends by using SKT did not have a significant trend at any of the sites included in this study, indicating either that the water quality in the Middle Rio Grande Basin has been stable during the study period or that not enough samples were collected during different seasons to characterize the range of concentration variability with streamflow. The SKT test results indicate upward trends in concentrations of the following constituents: aluminum and antimony at the Alameda site, nitrate and nitrate plus nitrite at the Cochiti site, and potassium and antimony during the spring season at Jemez Canyon Dam. The SKT test results indicate a downward trend in cobalt at the Cochiti site that is subject to bias in the cobalt concentrations. SKT test results also indicate small, downward trends in Kjeldahl nitrogen at the Alameda and Cochiti sites. Concentrations of water-quality constituents were also compared to Federal and State water-quality standards to provide context and relevance to the results. No concentrations were above the national primary or secondary drinking water standards at the Alameda and Cochiti sites, but the Jemez Canyon Dam site did have concentrations above the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency primary drinking water standard for arsenic and above the national secondary drinking water standards for dissolved solids and aluminum. The Alameda and Cochiti sites are on reaches of the Rio Grande that are listed as impaired for gross alpha particles and the Alameda site is on a reach of the Rio Grande that is listed as impaired for Escherichia coli , but there were no consistent changes in concentrations of these constituents at the impaired locations.

New Mexico↗

USGS2001

Effects of storm-sampling frequency on estimation of water-quality loads and trends in two tributaries to Chesapeake Bay in Virginia

Annual loads and flow-adjusted concentration trends were estimated by use of water-quality and streamflow data collected from 1990 through 1999 at monitoring stations on two tributaries to Chesapeake Bay in Virginia—James River at Cartersville, Va., and Rappahannock River near Fredericksburg, Va. The effects of storm-sampling frequency on the accuracy and precision of load and trend estimates were determined by use of data sets containing 0, 20, 40, 60, 80, and 100 percent of all storm samples collected in these two basins of different size, relief, and land use. Data sets included a range of dissolved and particulate constituents for the 10-year period from 1990 to 1999 and the 5-year period from 1995 to 1999. Loads of dissolved constituents were estimated with greater accuracy and precision with fewer storm samples than loads of particulate constituents in both basins and for both time periods. All constituent loads were estimated with greater precision with fewer storm samples in the James River than in the Rappahannock River for both periods. The high relief and smaller drainage area of the Rappahannock River Basin caused quicker and more variable stream response than in the James River Basin, which led to less precise load estimates of all constituents, regardless of how many storm samples were included. For the James River, the magnitudes of the load estimates in the 5-year period were close to the estimates from the same years for the 10-year period for the dissolved constituents, but were smaller for the particulate constituents. Load estimates were more variable for the Rappahannock River than for the James River during the shorter period. In both basins, all estimates in the 5-year period had higher prediction errors than those in the 10-year period. Overall, loads of dissolved constituents were estimated with greater accuracy and precision with fewer storm samples than loads of particulate constituents; loads of all constituents were estimated with greater accuracy and precision over the longer time period; and load estimates of all constituents were more precise and required fewer storm samples in the larger and less flashy James River Basin than in the Rappahannock River Basin. As with load estimates, estimates of flow-adjusted concentration trends were sensitive to the length of the monitoring period and the size of the basin; however, trend estimates generally were less sensitive than load estimates to the number of storm samples in the data set. Trends in flow-adjusted concentrations were estimated reasonably well with fewer storm samples for both dissolved and particulate constituents in the James River for the 10-year period, with the exception of total suspended solids. Data sets containing more storm samples were needed to obtain reasonable trend estimates for the 5-year period in this river. For the 10-year period in the Rappahannock River, more storm samples were necessary than in the James River to obtain reasonable estimates of trends for all constituents. No significant trends were observed for the 5-year period in this river, so the effect of storm-sampling frequency could not be determined. Because of the small number of significant trends throughout these data sets, it was not possible to determine whether fewer storm samples were required for estimating trends of dissolved constituents than particulate constituents. The results indicate that more storm samples were necessary for accurate estimation of trends during the shorter time period and in the smaller and flashier Rappahannock River Basin.

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

USGS2003

Trends in chemical concentration in sediment cores from three lakes in New Jersey and one lake on Long Island, New York

Sediment cores were extracted from three lakes in northeastern New Jersey and one lake on western Long Island, New York, as part of the U.S. Geological Survey National Water-Quality Assessment Program. Sediment layers were dated by use of cesium-137 (137Cs), copper, lead, or dichlorodiphenyl-trichloroethane (DDT) profiles. Sediment layers were analyzed for seven selected trace elements, including arsenic, cadmium, chromium, lead, mercury, nickel, and zinc, and five hydrophobic organochlorine compounds, including chlordane, dieldrin, total DDT, total polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), and total polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs). All seven trace elements were detected throughout the cores from all four lakes. Concentrations of all elements, except arsenic, were elevated in the three cores from lakes within urbanized watersheds (Packanack Lake, Orange Reservoir, and Newbridge Pond) relative to the concentrations in the lake core collected below the largely forested, reference watershed (Clyde Potts Reservoir). Results of trend analyses indicate that concentrations of all trace elements, with the exception of arsenic and lead, were relatively constant throughout the core from the minimally urbanized Clyde Potts Reservoir. In urban lakes, significant upward trends in concentrations from deeper to shallower sediments were observed either to peak concentrations or throughout the core for all elements, with the exception of chromium at all lakes and arsenic and nickel at Orange Reservoir. This finding indicates that changes in population and land use in the urbanized watersheds over the period of sedimentary record have contributed to upward trends in trace-element concentrations. Although downward trends in concentrations were observed for some trace elements in the years after their concentrations peaked, concentrations of all trace elements in urban lake cores were higher in the most recently deposited sediments than at the base of each respective core. Lead concentrations over time were highly correlated with the population in the vicinity of the lake until the concentration peak in sediment deposited in the mid-1970’s. Concentrations of lead in lake sediment appear to be closely related to the use of leaded gasoline because lead concentrations generally decreased after the use of leaded gasoline was phased-out in the mid-1970’s. Zinc concentrations were highly correlated with population over the entire length of the core. In general, zinc concentrations increased in the three urbanized watersheds, probably in response to increasing population and vehicular use. This trend was not evident at Clyde Potts Reservoir, however, where vehicular traffic in the watershed is minimal. Detectable concentrations of chlordane, total DDT, and total PCBs were present in cores from all lakes; however, dieldrin was detected only in the Newbridge Pond and Packanack Lake cores. Concentrations generally were higher in cores from the urbanized Newbridge Pond and Orange Reservoir watersheds than in those from the minimally urbanized Clyde Potts Reservoir watershed. With the exception of chlordane in the Clyde Potts and Orange Reservoir cores, concentrations of the four organochlorine compounds had significant downward trends from peak concentrations to recently deposited sediment or non-significant trends throughout the core. On the basis of these findings and as a result of regulatory actions prohibiting the production and use of these compounds, downward trends in sedimentary concentrations are expected to continue; however, the persistence of these compounds indicates that a substantial amount of time may be required to purge them from the watersheds. Concentrations of PAHs in sediment generally increased with population growth and urbanization, probably as a result of increased fossil-fuel combustion (gasoline and home-heating fuels and other uses (roads and parking lots paved with asphalt) associated with increased urban development and vehicular traffic. This finding is supported by low concentrations of PAHs in Packanack Lake sediments in the 1930’s, before the watershed was urbanized and when automobiles were comparatively rare. As vehicular use and urbanization increase in these watersheds, the general increase of PAH concentrations in lake sediments can be expected to continue. Data from this study indicate that changes in population, land use, and chemical use in the urbanized watersheds over the period of sedimentary record have contributed to upward trends in concentrations of trace elements and hydrophobic organic compounds. Although downward trends were observed for some constituents in the years after their concentrations peaked, concentrations of most constituents in urban lake cores were higher in the most recently deposited sediments than at the base of each respective core and in the reference lake cores. Similar trends in concentrations of these constituents have been observed in sediment cores from other urban lakes across the United States.

New Jersey, New York↗

USGS1987

Determination of benthic-invertebrate indices and water-quality trends of selected streams in Chester County, Pennsylvania, 1969-80

The trends of biological and chemical data collected for 12 years (1969-80) from 46 sites in Chester County were evaluated by using the sea- sonal Kendall test. Brillouin's diversity index was calculated and plotted against time for each site. The diversity index at 7 sites had upward trends significant at the 99-percent confidence level, the index at 9 sites had upward trends significant at the 95 to 98 percent confidence level, and the index at 11 sites had upward trends significant at the 90 to 94 percent con- fidence level. Although the trends were not statistically significant, 17 of the remaining sites had upward trends and 2 had downward trends. The seasonal Kendall test was used to test the chemical data for temporal trends at eight sites having stream discharge data. Significant trends were found at one or more sites for flow-adjusted values of specific conductance, pH, total nitrate, total phosphorus, dissolved chloride, and dissolved sulfate. The chemical data for 11 sites, which were not flow adjusted, were tested for trends by plotting against time and determining a correlation coefficient. Significant trends were found at one or more sites in nitrate and chloride. Selected chemical constituents were tested by regression analysis for correlation with the diversity index. Only total dissolved solids correlated significantly with diversity index. Several suggestions are made to improve the monitoring program.

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

USGS1985

Design of a sediment data-collection program in Kansas as affected by time trends

Data collection programs need to be re-examined periodically in order to insure their usefulness, efficiency, and applicability. The possibility of time trends in sediment concentration, in particular, makes the examination with new statistical techniques desirable. After adjusting sediment concentrations for their relation to streamflow rates and by using a seasonal adaptation of Kendall 's nonparametric statistical test, time trends of flow-adjusted concentrations were detected for 11 of the 38 sediment records tested that were not affected by large reservoirs. Ten of the 11 trends were toward smaller concentrations; only 1 was toward larger concentrations. Of the apparent trends that were not statistically significant (0.05 level) using data available, nearly all were toward smaller concentrations. Because the reason for the lack of statistical significance of an apparent trend may be inadequacy of data rather than absence of trend and because of the prevalence of apparent trends in one direction, the assumption was made that a time trend may be present at any station. This assumption can significantly affect the design of a sediment data collection program. Sudden decreases (step trends) in flow-adjusted sediment concentrations were found at all stations that were short distances downstream from large reservoirs and that had adequate data for a seasonal adaptation of Wilcoxon 's nonparametric statistical test. Examination of sediment records in the 1984 data collection program of the Kansas Water Office indicated 13 stations that can be discontinued temporarily because data are now adequate. Data collection could be resumed in 1992 when new data may be needed because of possible time trends. New data are needed at eight previously operated stations where existing data may be inadequate or misleading because of time trends. Operational changes may be needed at some stations, such as hiring contract observers or installing automatic pumping samplers. Implementing the changes in the program can provide a substantial increase in the quantity of useful information on stream sediment for the same funding as the 1984 level. (Author 's abstract)

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

USGS2017

Greater sage-grouse population trends across Wyoming

The scale at which analyses are performed can have an effect on model results and often one scale does not accurately describe the ecological phenomena of interest (e.g., population trends) for wide-ranging species: yet, most ecological studies are performed at a single, arbitrary scale. To best determine local and regional trends for greater sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ) in Wyoming, USA, we modeled density-independent and -dependent population growth across multiple spatial scales relevant to management and conservation (Core Areas [habitat encompassing approximately 83% of the sage-grouse population on ∼24% of surface area in Wyoming], local Working Groups [7 regional areas for which groups of local experts are tasked with implementing Wyoming's statewide sage-grouse conservation plan at the local level], Core Area status (Core Area vs. Non-Core Area) by Working Groups, and Core Areas by Working Groups). Our goal was to determine the influence of fine-scale population trends (Core Areas) on larger-scale populations (Working Group Areas). We modeled the natural log of change in population size ( peak M lek counts) by time to calculate the finite rate of population growth ( λ ) for each population of interest from 1993 to 2015. We found that in general when Core Area status (Core Area vs. Non-Core Area) was investigated by Working Group Area, the 2 populations trended similarly and agreed with the overall trend of the Working Group Area. However, at the finer scale where Core Areas were analyzed separately, Core Areas within the same Working Group Area often trended differently and a few large Core Areas could influence the overall Working Group Area trend and mask trends occurring in smaller Core Areas. Relatively close fine-scale populations of sage-grouse can trend differently, indicating that large-scale trends may not accurately depict what is occurring across the landscape (e.g., local effects of gas and oil fields may be masked by increasing larger populations).

Wyoming↗

USGS2016

Including land cover change in analysis of greenness trends using all available Landsat 5, 7, and 8 images: A case study from Guangzhou, China (2000–2014)

Remote sensing has proven a useful way of evaluating long-term trends in vegetation “greenness” through the use of vegetation indices like Normalized Differences Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI). In particular, analyses of greenness trends have been performed for large areas (continents, for example) in an attempt to understand vegetation response to climate. These studies have been most often used coarse resolution sensors like Moderate Resolution Image Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR). However, trends in greenness are also important at more local scales, particularly in and around cities as vegetation offers a variety of valuable ecosystem services ranging from minimizing air pollution to mitigating urban heat island effects. To explore the ability to monitor greenness trends in and around cities, this paper presents a new way for analyzing greenness trends based on all available Landsat 5, 7, and 8 images and applies it to Guangzhou, China. This method is capable of including the effects of land cover change in the evaluation of greenness trends by separating the effects of abrupt and gradual changes, and providing information on the timing of greenness trends. An assessment of the consistency of surface reflectance from Landsat 8 with past Landsat sensors indicates biases in the visible bands of Landsat 8, especially the blue band. Landsat 8 NDVI values were found to have a larger bias than the EVI values; therefore, EVI was used in the analysis of greenness trends for Guangzhou. In spite of massive amounts of development in Guangzhou from 2000 to 2014, greenness was found to increase, mostly as a result of gradual change. Comparison of the greening magnitudes estimated from the approach presented here and a Simple Linear Trend (SLT) method indicated large differences for certain time intervals as the SLT method does not include consideration for abrupt land cover changes. Overall, this analysis demonstrates the importance of considering land cover change when analyzing trends in greenness from satellite time series in areas where land cover change is common.

Guangzhou↗

USGS2009

Trends in concentrations and use of agricultural herbicides for Corn Belt rivers, 1996-2006

Trends in the concentrations and agricultural use of four herbicides (atrazine, acetochlor, metolachlor, and alachlor) were evaluated for major rivers of the Corn Belt for two partially overlapping time periods: 1996-2002 and 2000-2006. Trends were analyzed for 11 sites on the mainstems and selected tributaries in the Ohio, Upper Mississippi, and Missouri River Basins. Concentration trends were determined using a parametric regression model designed for analyzing seasonal variability, flow-related variability, and trends in pesticide concentrations(SEAWAVE-Q).TheSEAWAVE-Qmodel accounts for the effect of changing flow conditions in order to separate changes caused by hydrologic conditions from changes caused by other factors, such as pesticide use. Most of the trends in atrazine and acetochlor concentrations for both time periods were relatively small and nonsignificant, but metolachlor and alachlor were dominated by varying magnitudes of concentration downtrends. Overall, with trends expressed as a percent change per year, trends in herbicide concentrations were consistent with trends in agricultural use; 84 of 88 comparisons for different sites, herbicides, and time periods showed no significant difference between concentration trends and agricultural use trends. Results indicate that decreasing use appears to have been the primary cause for the concentration downtrends during 1996-2006 and that, while there is some evidence that nonuse management factors may have reduced concentrations in some rivers, reliably evaluating the influence of these factors on pesticides in large streams and rivers will require improved, basin-specific information on both management practices and use over time. ?? 2009 American Chemical Society.

Environmental Science & Technology↗

USGS2021

Monthly river temperature trends across the US confound annual changes

Climate variations and human modifications of the water cycle continue to alter the Earth's surface water and energy exchanges. It is therefore critical to ascertain how these changes impact water quality and aquatic ecosystem habitat metrics such as river temperatures. Though river temperature trend analyses exist in the literature, studies on seasonal trends in river temperatures across large spatial extents, e.g. the contiguous United States (US), are limited. As we show through both annual and monthly trend analyses for 20 year ( n = 138 sites) and 40 year ( n = 40 sites) periods, annual temperature trends across the US mask extensive monthly variability. While most sites exhibited annual warming trends, these annual trends obscured sub-annual cooling trends at many sites. Monthly trend anomalies were spatially organized, with persistent regional patterns at both reference and human-impacted sites. The largest warming and cooling anomalies happened at human impacted sites and during summer months. Though our analysis points to coherence in trends as well as the overall impact of human activity in driving these patterns, we did not investigate the impact of river temperature observation accuracy on reported trends, an area needed for future work. Overall, these patterns emphasize the need to consider sub-annual behavior when managing the ecological impacts of river temperature throughout lotic networks.

Environmental Research Letters↗