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USGS2008

Estimating fish body condition with quantile regression

We used quantile regression to compare the body condition of walleye Sander vitreus and white bass Morone chrysops before (1980-1988) and after (1989-2004) the establishment of alewives Alosa pseudoharengus in Lake McConaughy, Nebraska. Higher quantiles (percentiles = 100% x quantiles [0, 1]) of weight (W) at the same total length (TL) were indicative of better body condition in an allometric growth model that included separate slopes and intercepts for the before and after groups. All quantiles of walleye weights by TL increased in the years after alewife introduction, ranging from 1.01 to 1.12 times weights in the years before alewife introduction, with greatest increases for the lower (<0.50) quantiles and greater TLs. Quantiles up to 0.25 (the lowest 25th percentiles) of white bass weights were reduced in years after alewife introduction for TLs less than 300 mm, ranging from 0.78 to 0.98 times weights in the years before alewife introduction. However, quantiles greater than or equal to 0.50 (the upper 50th percentiles) of white bass weights increased for all TLs, ranging from 1.01 to 1.06 times the pre-1988 weights. A three-group analysis, which improved the model fit for longer white bass, indicated a reduction (0.80-1.0) in white bass body condition across all TLs in the first 2 years (1989-1990) after alewife introduction, whereas body condition actually improved (1.02-1.12) across all TLs in later years (1991-2004). Thus, after the establishment of alewives in 1988, walleye body condition improved for all fish at all lengths (the greatest improvement occurring among fish in poorer condition), whereas white bass body condition was initially reduced for all fish at all lengths for 2 years and improved in subsequent years. The approach that we developed for comparing fish body condition before and after a management action in Lake McConaughy could be applied to other weight-length data sets typically evaluated with relative weight indices. ?? Copyright by the American Fisheries Society 2008.

North American Journal of Fisheries Management↗

USGS2020

A multifaceted reconstruction of the population structure and life history expressions of a remnant metapopulation of Bonneville Cutthroat Trout: Implications for maintaining intermittent connectivity

Fishes that evolutionarily demonstrated a fluvial life history expression and migrated to spawning and rearing habitat by using lotic corridors are increasingly impacted by fragmentation. The overall goal of this study was to identify the contemporary importance of main-stem connectivity and tributaries for maintaining life history expression, population structure, and viability of a large metapopulation of Bonneville Cutthroat Trout (BCT) Oncorhynchus clarkii utah persisting in the highly fragmented Weber River, Utah. We used a multifaceted approach, including active sampling, mark–recapture, passive PIT tag detection, otolith microchemistry, and genetics. We collected BCT in all tributaries and the main stem, encountering age-0 fish in three tributaries, indicating successful reproduction. In tributaries, the size structure was bimodal and consisted of smaller fish that were classified as resident and larger fish that were deemed to be fluvial, whereas all sizes and ages (age ≥ 1) were present in the main stem. We identified up to eight age-classes; tributaries were dominated by ages 2 and 8, and the main stem was dominated by ages 2, 5, 6, and 7. Tributary BCT had lower growth rates than BCT in the main stem. We observed a surprising degree of fluvial life history expression, and fish also demonstrated very complex movement patterns across their life span. Average apparent survival (33%) was within the range estimated in similar studies for BCT, and the resight rate was best explained by angler management regulations. The fact that BCT in the Weber River and tributaries still reproduce successfully in most years and are still able to grow into large, fluvial fish suggests that connectivity must be occasionally available despite considerable fragmentation. Therefore, this metapopulation may need little further human intervention if barriers to fish passage can be removed, thereby improving connectivity, and it represents a high-priority metapopulation for conservation, thus highlighting the utility of our approach.

Utah↗

USGS2013

Biological nitrogen fixation: rates, patterns and ecological controls in terrestrial ecosystems

New techniques have identified a wide range of organisms with the capacity to carry out biological nitrogen fixation (BNF)—greatly expanding our appreciation of the diversity and ubiquity of N fixers—but our understanding of the rates and controls of BNF at ecosystem and global scales has not advanced at the same pace. Nevertheless, determining rates and controls of BNF is crucial to placing anthropogenic changes to the N cycle in context, and to understanding, predicting and managing many aspects of global environmental change. Here, we estimate terrestrial BNF for a pre-industrial world by combining information on N fluxes with 15 N relative abundance data for terrestrial ecosystems. Our estimate is that pre-industrial N fixation was 58 (range of 40–100) Tg N fixed yr −1 ; adding conservative assumptions for geological N reduces our best estimate to 44 Tg N yr −1 . This approach yields substantially lower estimates than most recent calculations; it suggests that the magnitude of human alternation of the N cycle is substantially larger than has been assumed.

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B:↗

USGS2007

Smallmouth bass and largemouth bass predation on juvenile Chinook salmon and other salmonids in the Lake Washington basin

We assessed the impact of predation by smallmouth bass Micropterus dolomieu and largemouth bass M. salmoides on juveniles of federally listed Chinook salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha and other anadromous salmonid populations in the Lake Washington system. Bass were collected with boat electrofishing equipment in the south end of Lake Washington (February-June) and the Lake Washington Ship Canal (LWSC; April-July), a narrow waterway that smolts must migrate through to reach the marine environment. Genetic analysis was used to identify ingested salmonids to obtain a more precise species-specific consumption estimate. Overall, we examined the stomachs of 783 smallmouth bass and 310 largemouth bass greater than 100 mm fork length (FL). Rates of predation on salmonids in the south end of Lake Washington were generally low for both black bass species. In the LWSC, juvenile salmonids made up a substantial part of bass diets; consumption of salmonids was lower for largemouth bass than for smallmouth bass. Smallmouth bass predation on juvenile salmonids was greatest in June, when salmonids made up approximately 50% of their diet. In the LWSC, overall black bass consumption of salmonids was approximately 36,000 (bioenergetics model) to 46,000 (meal turnover consumption model) juveniles, of which about one-third was juvenile Chinook salmon, one-third was coho salmon O. kisutch, and one-third was sockeye salmon O. nerka. We estimated that about 2,460,000 juvenile Chinook salmon (hatchery and wild sources combined) were produced in the Lake Washington basin in 1999; thus, the mortality estimates in the LWSC range from 0.5% (bioenergetics) to 0.6% (meal turnover). Black bass prey mostly on subyearlings of each salmonid species. The vulnerability of subyearlings to predation can be attributed to their relatively small size; their tendency to migrate when water temperatures exceed 15??C, coinciding with greater black bass activity; and their use of nearshore areas, where overlap with black bass is greatest. We conclude that under current conditions, predation by smallmouth bass and largemouth bass has a minor impact on Chinook salmon and other salmonid populations in the Lake Washington system. ?? Copyright by the American Fisheries Society 2007.

North American Journal of Fisheries Management↗

USGS2009

Projected climate-induced faunal change in the Western Hemisphere

Climate change is predicted to be one of the greatest drivers of ecological change in the coming century. Increases in temperature over the last century have clearly been linked to shifts in species distributions. Given the magnitude of projected future climatic changes, we can expect even larger range shifts in the coming century. These changes will, in turn, alter ecological communities and the functioning of ecosystems. Despite the seriousness of predicted climate change, the uncertainty in climate-change projections makes it difficult for conservation managers and planners to proactively respond to climate stresses. To address one aspect of this uncertainty, we identified predictions of faunal change for which a high level of consensus was exhibited by different climate models. Specifically, we assessed the potential effects of 30 coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) future-climate simulations on the geographic ranges of 2954 species of birds, mammals, and amphibians in the Western Hemisphere. Eighty percent of the climate projections based on a relatively low greenhouse-gas emissions scenario result in the local loss of at least 10% of the vertebrate fauna over much of North and South America. The largest changes in fauna are predicted for the tundra, Central America, and the Andes Mountains where, assuming no dispersal constraints, specific areas are likely to experience over 90% turnover, so that faunal distributions in the future will bear little resemblance to those of today. ?? 2009 by the Ecological Society of America.

Ecology↗

USGS2017

Culturally induced range infilling of eastern redcedar: a problem in ecology, an ecological problem, or both?

The philosopher John Passmore distinguished between (1) “problems in ecology,” or what we might call problems in scientific understanding of ecological change, and (2) “ecological problems,” or what we might call problems faced by societies due to ecological change. The spread of eastern redcedar ( Juniperus virginiana ) and conversion of the central and southern Great Plains of North America to juniper woodland might be categorized as a problem in ecology, an ecological problem, or both. Here, we integrate and apply two interdisciplinary approaches to problem-solving—social-ecological systems thinking and ecocriticism—to understand the role of human culture in recognizing, driving, and responding to cedar’s changing geographic distribution. We interpret the spread of cedar as a process of culturally induced range infilling due to the ongoing social-ecological impacts of colonization, analyze poetic literary texts to clarify the concepts that have so far informed different cultural values related to cedar, and explore the usefulness of diverse interdisciplinary collaborations and knowledge for addressing social-ecological challenges like cedar spread in the midst of rapidly unfolding global change. Our examination suggests that it is not only possible, but preferable, to address cedar spread as both a scientific and a social problem. Great Plains landscapes are teetering between grassland and woodland, and contemporary human societies both influence and choose how to cope with transitions between these ecological states. We echo previous studies in suggesting that human cultural values about stability and disturbance, especially cultural concepts of fire, will be primary driving factors in determining future trajectories of change on the Great Plains. Although invasion-based descriptors of cedar spread may be useful in ecological research and management, language based on the value of restraint could provide a common vocabulary for effective cross-disciplinary and interdisciplinary communication about the relationship between culture and cedar, as well as an ethical framework for cross-cultural communication, decision-making, and management.

Ecology and Society↗

USGS2013

Introduction to a special section: Ecology, culture, and management of Burbot

The Burbot Lota lota is the only truly freshwater member of the cod family (Gadidae) and one of only two species of freshwater fish that have a circumpolar range (McPhail and Lindsey 1970; McPhail and Paragamian 2000). Two subspecies of Lota lota have been documented: Lota lota maculosa, which is found exclusively in North America from south of Great Slave Lake in Canada to the southern limit of its range; and Lota lota lota, which is found over the remainder of the species’ Nearctic range and its entire Eurasian range (Hubbs and Schultz 1941; Van Houdt et al. 2003). However, many recent authorities (e.g., Scott and Crossman 1973) do not designate subspecies. Burbot occupy the widest range of depths of all fishes found in the Laurentian Great Lakes basin (i.e., from small streams to at least 300 m in Lake Superior; Boyer et al. 1989). Worldwide, many Burbot populations are threatened or endangered or have been extirpated (reviewed by Stapanian et al. 2010). Due in part to its unpopularity as a sport and commercial fish in much of its range, the species is often ignored in fish management and conservation programs (McPhail and Paragamian 2000; Stapanian et al. 2008, 2010). Even basic information on Burbot ecology, particularly its early life history and spawning habitats and sites, is lacking. This lack of information is particularly troubling because Burbot are an indicator of the health of coldwater systems (Stapanian et al. 2010). Efforts to rehabilitate or restore imperiled populations include culturing early life stages. Burbot larvae are difficult to culture for a variety of reasons, including their delicate body structure, small size at hatch, and live-feed requirement for at least 5 weeks following alimentary tract development.

Transactions of the American Fisheries Society↗

USGS2015

Climate change and prairie pothole wetlands: mitigating water-level and hydroperiod effects through upland management

Prairie pothole wetlands offer crucial habitat for North America’s waterfowl populations. The wetlands also support an abundance of other species and provide ecological services valued by society. The hydrology of prairie pothole wetlands is dependent on atmospheric interactions. Therefore, changes to the region’s climate can have profound effects on wetland hydrology. The relevant literature related to climate change and upland management effects on prairie pothole wetland water levels and hydroperiods was reviewed. Climate change is widely expected to affect water levels and hydroperiods of prairie pothole wetlands, as well as the biota and ecological services that the wetlands support. In general, hydrologic model projections that incorporate future climate change scenarios forecast lower water levels in prairie pothole wetlands and longer periods spent in a dry condition, despite potential increases in precipitation. However, the extreme natural variability in climate and hydrology of prairie pothole wetlands necessitates caution when interpreting model results. Recent changes in weather patterns throughout much of the Prairie Pothole Region have been in increased precipitation that results in increased water inputs to wetlands above losses associated with warmer temperatures. However, observed precipitation increases are within the range of natural climate variability and therefore, may not persist. Identifying management techniques with the potential to affect water inputs to prairie pothole wetlands would provide increased options for managers when dealing with the uncertainties associated with a changing climate. Several grassland management techniques (for example, grazing and burning) have the potential to affect water levels and hydroperiods of prairie pothole by affecting infiltration, evapotranspiration, and snow deposition.

Prairie Pothole Region↗

USGS2015

Effects of regulated river flows on habitat suitability for the robust redhorse

The Robust Redhorse Moxostoma robustum is a rare and imperiled fish, with wild populations occurring in three drainages from North Carolina to Georgia. Hydroelectric dams have altered the species’ habitat and restricted its range. An augmented minimum-flow regime that will affect Robust Redhorse habitat was recently prescribed for Blewett Falls Dam, a hydroelectric facility on the Pee Dee River, North Carolina. Our objective was to quantify suitable spawning and nonspawning habitat under current and proposed minimum-flow regimes. We implanted radio transmitters into 27 adult Robust Redhorses and relocated the fish from spring 2008 to summer 2009, and we described habitat at 15 spawning capture locations. Nonspawning habitat consisted of deep, slow-moving pools (mean depth D 2.3 m; mean velocity D 0.23 m/s), bedrock and sand substrates, and boulders or coarse woody debris as cover. Spawning habitat was characterized as shallower, faster-moving water (mean depth D 0.84 m; mean velocity D 0.61 m/s) with gravel and cobble as substrates and boulders as cover associated with shoals. Telemetry relocations revealed two behavioral subgroups: a resident subgroup (linear range [mean § SE] D 7.9 § 3.7 river kilometers [rkm]) that remained near spawning areas in the Piedmont region throughout the year; and a migratory subgroup (linear range D 64.3 § 8.4 rkm) that migrated extensively downstream into the Coastal Plain region. Spawning and nonspawning habitat suitability indices were developed based on field microhabitat measurements and were applied to model suitable available habitat (weighted usable area) for current and proposed augmented minimum flows. Suitable habitat (both spawning and nonspawning) increased for each proposed seasonal minimum flow relative to former minimum flows, with substantial increases for spawning sites. Our results contribute to an understanding of how regulated flows affect available habitats for imperiled species. Flow managers can use these findings to regulate discharge more effectively and to create and maintain important habitats during critical periods for priority species.

Transactions of the American Fisheries Society↗

USGS2006

Wetland and microhabitat use by nesting four-toed salamanders in Maine

Little is known of Four-Toed Salamander (Hemidactylium scutatum) habitat use, despite the species' extensive range and elevated conservation status. We investigated species-habitat relationships that predict H. scutatum nesting presence in Maine at wetland and microhabitat scales by comparing microhabitats with and without nests. We created logistic regression models, selected models with AIC, and evaluated models with reserve data. Wetlands with nests were best predicted by shoreline microhabitat of Sphagnum spp., wood substrate, water flow, blue-joint reed grass (Calamagrostis canadensis), meadowsweet (Spiraea alba), steeplebush (Spiraea tomentosa), sensitive fern (Onoclea sensibilis), and absence of sheep laurel (Kalmia angustifolia) or deciduous forest canopy. Within occupied wetlands, shoreline microhabitat where nests occurred was best distinguished from available, unoccupied shoreline microhabitat by steeper shore, greater near-shore and basin water depth, deeper nesting vegetation, presence of moss spp. and winterberry (Ilex verticillata), and a negative association with S. alba, leatherleaf (Chamaedaphne calyculata), and K. angustifolia. These models of wetland and microhabitat use by H. scutatum may assist ecologists and managers in detecting and conserving this species. Copyright 2006 Society for the Study of Amphibians and Reptiles.

Journal of Herpetology↗

USGS2008

Conservation status of imperiled north American freshwater and diadromous fishes

This is the third compilation of imperiled (i.e., endangered, threatened, vulnerable) plus extinct freshwater and diadromous fishes of North America prepared by the American Fisheries Society's Endangered Species Committee. Since the last revision in 1989, imperilment of inland fishes has increased substantially. This list includes 700 extant taxa representing 133 genera and 36 families, a 92% increase over the 364 listed in 1989. The increase reflects the addition of distinct populations, previously non-imperiled fishes, and recently described or discovered taxa. Approximately 39% of described fish species of the continent are imperiled. There are 230 vulnerable, 190 threatened, and 280 endangered extant taxa, and 61 taxa presumed extinct or extirpated from nature. Of those that were imperiled in 1989, most (89%) are the same or worse in conservation status; only 6% have improved in status, and 5% were delisted for various reasons. Habitat degradation and nonindigenous species are the main threats to at-risk fishes, many of which are restricted to small ranges. Documenting the diversity and status of rare fishes is a critical step in identifying and implementing appropriate actions necessary for their protection and management.

Fisheries↗

USGS1994

Variations in water balance and recharge potential at three western desert sites

Radioactive and hazardous waste landfills exist at numerous desert locations in the USA. At these locations, annual precipitation is low and soils are generally dry, yet little is known about recharge of water and transport of contaminants to the water table. Recent water balance measurements made at three desert locations, Las Cruces, NM, Beatty, NV, and the U.S. Department of Energy's Hanford Site in the state of Washington, provide information on recharge potential under three distinctly different climate and soil conditions. All three sites show water storage increases with time when soils are coarse textured and plants are removed from the surface, the rate of increase being influenced by climatic variables such as precipitation, radiation, temperature, and wind. Lysimeter data from Hanford and Las Cruces indicate that deep drainage (recharge) from bare, sandy soils can range from 10 to >50% of the annual precipitation. At Hanford, when desert plants are present on sandy or gravelly surface soils, deep drainage is reduced but not eliminated. When surface soils are silt loams, deep drainage is eliminated whether plants are present or not. At Las Cruces and Beatty, the presence of plants eliminated deep drainage at the measurement sites. Differences in water balance between sites are attributed to precipitation quantity and distribution and to soil and vegetation types. The implication for waste management at desert locations is that surface soil properties and plant characteristics must be considered in waste site design in order to minimize recharge potential.

Soil Science Society of America Journal↗

USGS2016

Canada goose nest survival at rural wetlands in north-central Iowa

The last comprehensive nest survival study of the breeding giant Canada goose ( Branta canadensis maxima ) population in Iowa, USA, was conducted >30 years ago during a period of population recovery, during which available nesting habitat consisted primarily of artificial nest structures. Currently, Iowa's resident goose population is stable and nests in a variety of habitats. We analyzed the effects of available habitat on nest survival and how nest survival rates compared with those of the expanding goose population studied previously to better understand how to maintain a sustainable Canada goose population in Iowa. We documented Canada goose nest survival at rural wetland sites in north-central Iowa. We monitored 121 nests in 2013 and 149 nests in 2014 at 5 Wildlife Management Areas (WMAs) with various nesting habitats, including islands, muskrat ( Ondatra zibethicus ) houses, and elevated nest structures. We estimated daily nest-survival rate using the nest survival model in Program MARK. Survival was influenced by year, site, stage, presence of a camera, nest age, and an interaction between nest age and stage. Nest success rates for the 28-day incubation period by site and year combination ranged from 0.10 to 0.84. Nest survival was greatest at sites with nest structures (β = 17.34). Nest survival was negatively affected by lowered water levels at Rice Lake WMA (2013 β = −0.77, nest age β = −0.07). Timing of water-level drawdowns for shallow lake restorations may influence nest survival rates.

Iowa↗

USGS2016

Detecting failure of climate predictions

The practical consequences of climate change challenge society to formulate responses that are more suited to achieving long-term objectives, even if those responses have to be made in the face of uncertainty 1 , 2 . Such a decision-analytic focus uses the products of climate science as probabilistic predictions about the effects of management policies 3 . Here we present methods to detect when climate predictions are failing to capture the system dynamics. For a single model, we measure goodness of fit based on the empirical distribution function, and define failure when the distribution of observed values significantly diverges from the modelled distribution. For a set of models, the same statistic can be used to provide relative weights for the individual models, and we define failure when there is no linear weighting of the ensemble models that produces a satisfactory match to the observations. Early detection of failure of a set of predictions is important for improving model predictions and the decisions based on them. We show that these methods would have detected a range shift in northern pintail 20 years before it was actually discovered, and are increasingly giving more weight to those climate models that forecast a September ice-free Arctic by 2055.

Nature Climate Change↗

USGS2006

Spatial and temporal dynamics of microcystin in a Missouri reservoir

Environmental factors associated with spatiotemporal variation of microcystin (MC) in Mozingo Lake, a Missouri reservoir, were studied during summer 2001, and annual MC trends were characterized from May 2001-May 2002. MC increased during summer, ranging from 20 to 1220 ng/L. Seasonal patterns in MC corresponded with chlorophyll>35 ??m (Net Chl) and cyanobacterial biovolume associated with increased dominance by Microcystis and Anabaena. MC showed strong negative correlations with dissolved nitrogen (r=-0.95) and cations (r=-0.98), and strong positive correlations with Net Chl (r=0.91). Once the lake stratified, MC and Net Chl remained uniform throughout the photic zone and decreased significantly (p<0.05) in the aphotic zone. Field experiments indicated MC did not change independently of Net Chl in response to decreased light or increased nutrients; however, enclosure effects may have substantially influenced experimental results. Mozingo Lake MC was tightly coupled with seasonal lake processes, including stratification and nutrient loss from the epilimnion, and cyanobacterial community composition, abundance and distribution in the water column. MC was detected in all monthly samples suggesting the potential for problems associated with MC exists year round, but peaks in early fall presented the greatest concern in Mozingo Lake. ?? Copyright by the North American Lake Management Society 2006.

Lake and Reservoir Management↗

USGS2022

A menu of climate change adaptation actions for terrestrial wildlife management

The real-world application of climate change adaptation practices in terrestrial wildlife conservation has been slowed by a lack of practical guidance for wildlife managers. Although there is a rapidly growing body of literature on the topic of climate change adaptation and wildlife management, the literature is weighted towards a narrow range of adaptation actions and administrative or policy recommendations that are typically beyond the decision space and influence of wildlife professionals. We developed a menu of tiered adaptation actions for terrestrial wildlife management to translate broad concepts into actionable approaches to help managers respond to climate change risks and meet desired management goals. The menu includes actions related to managing wildlife populations as well as managing wildlife habitat. We designed this resource to be used with the Adaptation Workbook, a structured decision-support tool for climate adaptation. We describe real-world examples in which managers have used the Wildlife Adaptation Menu to integrate climate adaptation considerations into wildlife management and conservation projects. Our examples illustrate how a comprehensive and structured menu of adaptation approaches can help managers brainstorm specific actions and more easily and clearly communicate the intent of their climate adaptation efforts.

Wildlife Society Bulletin↗

USGS1976

Upland sandpiper nesting and management in North Dakota

Nests of 195 upland sandpipers (Bartramia longicauda) on the Missouri Coteau of North Dakota generally were well concealed by grassy vegetation which ranged from 15.4-30.8 cm in height. Nest densities ranged from 0.3 per 40.5 ha on annually tilled croplands to 6.8 per 40.5 ha on native grasslands during the second growing season after a prescribed burn. Hatching success in native grasslands varied from 48 percent on annually grazed areas to 71 percent on both undisturbed and burned areas. No production was observed on annually tilled croplands and production was comparatively low on former cropland fields seeded to grass-legume mixtures. Expressed as hatched nests per 40.5 ha, production was 0.5 for annually grazed grassland, 1.1 for undisturbed grassland, and 2.2 for grassland managed by prescribed burning. To maintain native grasslands in the best condition for upland sandpiper nesting we recommend rotational burning at 3-year intervals; otherwise grasslands should remain undisturbed.

Wildlife Society Bulletin↗

USGS2021

Estimates of abundance and harvest rates of female black bears across a large spatial extent

American black bears ( Ursus americanus ) are an iconic wildlife species in the southern Appalachian highlands of the eastern United States and have increased in number and range since the early 1980s. Given an increasing number of human-bear conflicts in the region, many management agencies have liberalized harvest regulations to reduce bear populations to socially acceptable levels. Wildlife managers need reliable population data for assessing the effects of management actions for this high-profile species. Our goal was to use DNA extracted from hair collected at barbed-wire enclosures (i.e., hair traps) to identify individual bears and then use spatially explicit capture-recapture methods to estimate female black bear density, abundance, and harvest rate. We established 888 hair traps across 66,678 km 2 of the southern Appalachian highlands in Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina, and Tennessee, USA, in 2017 and 2018, arranged in 174 clusters of 2–9 traps/cluster. We collected 9,113 hair samples from those sites over 6 weeks of sampling, of which 1,954 were successfully genotyped to 462 individual female bears. Our spatially explicit estimator included a percent forest covariate to explain inhomogeneous bear density across the region. Densities ranged up to 0.410 female bears/km 2 and regional abundance was 5,950 (95% CI = 4,988–7,098) female bears. Based on hunter kill data from 2016 to 2018, mean annual harvest rates for females were 12.7% in Georgia, 17.6% in North Carolina, 17.6% in South Carolina, and 22.8% in Tennessee. Our estimated harvest rates for most states approached or exceeded theoretical maximum sustainable levels, and population trend data (i.e., bait-station indices) indicated decreasing growth rates since about 2009. These data suggest that the increased harvest goals and poor hard mast production over a series of prior years reduced bear population abundance in many states. We were able to obtain reasonable population abundance and density estimates because of spatially explicit capture-recapture methods, cluster sampling, and a large spatial extent. Continued monitoring of bear populations (e.g., annual bait-station surveys and periodic population estimation using spatially explicit methods) by state jurisdictions would help to ensure that population trajectories are consistent with management goals. © 2021 The Wildlife Society.

Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee↗