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At least 109 records · Page 6Linked to original sources
USGS2018

China, the United States, and competition for resources that enable emerging technologies

Historically, resource conflicts have often centered on fuel minerals (particularly oil). Future resource conflicts may, however, focus more on competition for nonfuel minerals that enable emerging technologies. Whether it is rhenium in jet engines, indium in flat panel displays, or gallium in smart phones, obscure elements empower smarter, smaller, and faster technologies, and nations seek stable supplies of these and other nonfuel minerals for their industries. No nation has all of the resources it needs domestically. International trade may lead to international competition for these resources if supplies are deemed at risk or insufficient to satisfy growing demand, especially for minerals used in technologies important to economic development and national security. Here, we compare the net import reliance of China and the United States to inform mineral resource competition and foreign supply risk. Our analysis indicates that China relies on imports for over half of its consumption for 19 of 42 nonfuel minerals, compared with 24 for the United States—11 of which are common to both. It is for these 11 nonfuel minerals that competition between the United States and China may become the most contentious, especially for those with highly concentrated production that prove irreplaceable in pivotal emerging technologies.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of↗
USGS2006

Health-based screening levels to evaluate U.S. Geological Survey ground water quality data

Federal and state drinking‐water standards and guidelines do not exist for many contaminants analyzed by the U.S. Geological Survey's National Water‐Quality Assessment Program, limiting the ability to evaluate the potential human‐health relevance of water‐quality findings. Health‐based screening levels (HBSLs) were developed collaboratively to supplement existing drinking‐water standards and guidelines as part of a six‐year, multi‐agency pilot study. The pilot study focused on ground water samples collected prior to treatment or blending in areas of New Jersey where groundwater is the principal source of drinking water. This article describes how HBSLs were developed and demonstrates the use of HBSLs as a tool for evaluating water‐quality data in a human‐health context. HBSLs were calculated using standard U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) methodologies and toxicity information. New HBSLs were calculated for 12 of 32 contaminants without existing USEPA drinking‐water standards or guidelines, increasing the number of unregulated contaminants (those without maximum contaminant levels (MCLs)) with human‐health benchmarks. Concentrations of 70 of the 78 detected contaminants with human‐health benchmarks were less than MCLs or HBSLs, including all 12 contaminants with new HBSLs, suggesting that most contaminant concentrations were not of potential human‐health concern. HBSLs were applied to a state‐scale groundwater data set in this study, but HBSLs also may be applied to regional and national evaluations of water‐quality data. HBSLs fulfill a critical need for federal, state, and local agencies, water utilities, and others who seek tools for evaluating the occurrence of contaminants without drinking‐water standards or guidelines.

Risk Analysis↗
USGS2018

Evaluating potential distribution of high-risk aquatic invasive species in the water garden and aquarium trade at a global scale based on current established populations

Aquatic non‐native invasive species are commonly traded in the worldwide water garden and aquarium markets, and some of these species pose major threats to the economy, the environment, and human health. Understanding the potential suitable habitat for these species at a global scale and at regional scales can inform risk assessments and predict future potential establishment. Typically, global habitat suitability models are fit for freshwater species with only climate variables, which provides little information about suitable terrestrial conditions for aquatic species. Remotely sensed data including topography and land cover data have the potential to improve our understanding of suitable habitat for aquatic species. In this study, we fit species distribution models using five different model algorithms for three non‐native aquatic invasive species with bioclimatic, topographic, and remotely sensed covariates to evaluate potential suitable habitat beyond simple climate matches. The species examined included a frog (Xenopus laevis), toad (Bombina orientalis), and snail (Pomacea spp.). Using a unique modeling approach for each species including background point selection based on known established populations resulted in robust ensemble habitat suitability models. All models for all species had test area under the receiver operating characteristic curve values greater than 0.70 and percent correctly classified values greater than 0.65. Importantly, we employed multivariate environmental similarity surface maps to evaluate potential extrapolation beyond observed conditions when applying models globally. These global models provide necessary forecasts of where these aquatic invasive species have the potential for establishment outside their native range, a key component in risk analyses.

Risk Analysis↗
USGS2026

Perceptions of parcel-level wildfire risk differ between homeowners and trained assessors in wildland-urban interface communities across the western United States

Wildfire risk mitigation on private property is central to reducing community wildfire vulnerability. Homeowners have control over many of the key factors that contribute to wildfire risk on their parcels, yet vulnerable conditions persist. One potential explanation is a misalignment between homeowners' and trained assessors' perceptions of parcel-level wildfire risk. Prior research has documented a “risk gap” in a single community wherein owners often underestimate their parcel-level wildfire risk; however, it is unclear whether such misalignments are widespread. This study replicates and expands previous research by examining the parcel-level wildfire risk gap in 38 wildland–urban interface (WUI) communities across the Western United States using paired data from household surveys and parcel-level wildfire risk assessments by trained assessors. We find that homeowners and assessors often perceive parcel characteristics differently. Homeowners may systematically mis-weight their importance, tending to underweight key controllable factors such as building materials and defensible space, leading to meaningful divergence from trained assessor ratings. Accordingly, we also find that homeowners generally underestimate overall parcel wildfire risk compared to trained assessors. These results suggest that even when homeowners recognize attributes on their parcels that contribute to wildfire risk, they may not fully grasp how much the attributes contribute to overall parcel risk, potentially failing to recognize the need to undertake meaningful mitigation actions. The findings from this study contribute to the broader natural hazards literature on expert-layperson risk perception gaps and offer insights for improving wildfire communication, education, and mitigation strategies in WUI communities.

Alaska, Colorado, New Mexico, Utah, Wyoming↗
USGS2005

Review of the transport of selected radionuclides in the interim risk assessment for the Radioactive Waste Management Complex, Waste Area Group 7 Operable Unit 7-13/14, Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory, Idaho

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) requested that the U.S. Geological Survey conduct an independent technical review of the Interim Risk Assessment (IRA) and Contaminant Screening for the Waste Area Group 7 (WAG-7) Remedial Investigation, the draft Addendum to the Work Plan for Operable Unit 7-13/14 WAG-7 comprehensive Remedial Investigation and Feasibility Study (RI/FS), and supporting documents that were prepared by Lockheed Martin Idaho Technologies, Inc. The purpose of the technical review was to assess the data and geotechnical approaches that were used to estimate future risks associated with the release of the actinides americium, uranium, neptunium, and plutonium to the Snake River Plain aquifer from wastes buried in pits and trenches at the Subsurface Disposal Area (SDA). The SDA is located at the Radioactive Waste Management Complex in southeastern Idaho within the boundaries of the Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory. Radionuclides have been buried in pits and trenches at the SDA since 1957 and 1952, respectively. Burial of transuranic wastes was discontinued in 1982. The five specific tasks associated with this review were defined in a ?Proposed Scope of Work? prepared by the DOE, and a follow-up workshop held in June 1998. The specific tasks were (1) to review the radionuclide sampling data to determine how reliable and significant are the reported radionuclide detections and how reliable is the ongoing sampling program, (2) to assess the physical and chemical processes that logically can be invoked to explain true detections, (3) to determine if distribution coefficients that were used in the IRA are reliable and if they have been applied properly, (4) to determine if transport model predictions are technically sound, and (5) to identify issues needing resolution to determine technical adequacy of the risk assessment analysis, and what additional work is required to resolve those issues.

Idaho↗
USGS1997

Hydrogeology and water quality of the Shell Valley Aquifer, Rolette County, North Dakota

The Shell Valley aquifer is the sole source of water for the city of Belcourt and the primary source of water for most of the Turtle Mountain Indian Reservation. The Turtle Mountain Band of Chippewa Indians is concerned about the quantity and quality of water in the Shell Valley aquifer, which underlies about 56 square miles in central Rolette County and has an average saturated thickness of about 35 feet. Water levels across most of the Shell Valley aquifer fluctuate with variations in precipitation but generally are stable. Withdrawals from the north well field decreased slightly during 1976-95, but withdrawals from the south well field increased during 1983-95. Water levels in the south well field declined as withdrawals increased. The average decline during the last 8 years was about 1.75 feet per year. The water level has reached the well screen in at least one of the production wells. Most of the water in the aquifer is a bicarbonate type and has dissolved-solids concentrations ranging from 479 to 1,510 milligrams per liter. None of the samples analyzed had detectable concentrations of pesticides, but hydrocarbons were detected in both ground- and surfacewater samples. Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH) were the most frequently detected hydrocarbons. Benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene, and xylene (BTEX), polychlorinated biphenyls (PCB), and pentachlorophenol (PCP) also were detected. Generally, the Shell Valley aquifer is an adequate source of water for current needs, but evaluation of withdrawals in relation to a knowledge of aquifer hydrology would be important in quantifying sustainable water supplies. Water quality in the aquifer generally is good; the Turtle Mountain Band of Chippewa Indians filters the water to reduce concentrations of dissolved constituents. Hydrocarbons, although present in the aquifer, have not been quantified and may not pose a general health risk. Further analysis of the quantity and distribution of the hydrocarbons would be useful to understand their sources and implications for water use.

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗
USGS2024

Climate change and collapsing thermal niches of desert reptiles and amphibians: Assisted migration and acclimation rescue from extirpation

Recent climate change should result in expansion of species to northern or high elevation range margins, and contraction at southern and low elevation margins in the northern hemisphere, because of local extirpations or range shifts or both. We combined museum occurrence records from both the continental U.S. and Mexico with a new eco-physiological model of extinction developed for lizard families of the world to predict the distributions of 30 desert-endemic reptile and amphibian species under climate change scenarios. The model predicts that 38 % of local populations will go extinct in the next 50 years, across all 30 species. However, extinctions may be attenuated in forested sites and by the presence of montane environments in contemporary ranges. Of the 30 species, three were at very high risk of extinction as a result of their thermal limits being exceeded, which illustrates the predictive value of ecophysiological modeling approaches for conservation studies. In tandem with global strategies of limiting CO2 emissions, we propose urgent regional management strategies for existing and new reserves that are targeted at three species: Barred Tiger Salamander (Ambystomatidae: Ambystoma mavortium stebbinsi), Desert Short-horned Lizard (Phrynosomatidae: Phrynosoma ornatissimum), and Morafka's Desert Tortoise (Testudinidae: Gopherus morafkai), which face a high risk of extinction by 2070. These strategies focus on assisted migration and preservation within climatic refugia, such as high-elevation and forested habitats. We forecast where new reserves should be established by merging our model of extinction risk with gap analysis. We also highlight that acclimation (i.e., phenotypic plasticity) could ameliorate risk of extinction but is rarely included in ecophysiological models. We use Ambystoma salamanders to show how acclimation can be incorporated into such models of extinction risk.

Science of the Total Environment↗
USGS2021

Public and private tapwater: Comparative analysis of contaminant exposure and potential risk, Cape Cod, Massachusetts, USA

Background Humans are primary drivers of environmental contamination worldwide, including in drinking-water resources. In the United States (US), federal and state agencies regulate and monitor public-supply drinking water while private-supply monitoring is rare; the current lack of directly comparable information on contaminant-mixture exposures and risks between private- and public-supplies undermines tapwater (TW) consumer decision-making. Methods We compared private- and public-supply residential point-of-use TW at Cape Cod, Massachusetts, where both supplies share the same groundwater source. TW from 10 private- and 10 public-supply homes was analyzed for 487 organic, 38 inorganic, 8 microbial indicators, and 3 in vitro bioactivities. Concentrations were compared to existing protective health-based benchmarks, and aggregated Hazard Indices (HI) of regulated and unregulated TW contaminants were calculated along with ratios of in vitro exposure-activity cutoffs. Results Seventy organic and 28 inorganic constituents were detected in TW. Median detections were comparable, but median cumulative concentrations were substantially higher in public supply due to 6 chlorine–disinfected samples characterized by disinfection byproducts and corresponding lower heterotrophic plate counts. Public-supply applicable maximum contaminant (nitrate) and treatment action (lead and copper) levels were exceeded in private-supply TW samples only. Exceedances of health-based HI screening levels of concern were common to both TW supplies. Discussion These Cape Cod results indicate comparable cumulative human-health concerns from contaminant exposures in private- and public-supply TW in a shared source-water setting. Importantly, although this study’s analytical coverage exceeds that currently feasible for water purveyors or homeowners, it nevertheless is a substantial underestimation of the full breadth of contaminant mixtures documented in the environment and potentially present in drinking water. Conclusion Regardless of the supply, increased public engagement in source-water protection and drinking-water treatment, including consumer point-of-use treatment, is warranted to reduce risks associated with long-term TW contaminant exposures, especially in vulnerable populations.

Massachusetts↗
USGS2021

Assessing recovery of spectacled eiders using a Bayesian decision analysis

Assessing species status and making classification decisions under the Endangered Species Act is a critical step towards effective species conservation. However, classification decisions are liable to two errors: i) failing to classify a species as threatened or endangered that should be classified (underprotection), or ii) classifying a species as threatened or endangered when it is not warranted (overprotection). Recent surveys indicate threatened spectacled eider populations are increasing in western Alaska, prompting the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service to reconsider the federal listing status. There are multiple criteria set for assessing spectacled eider status, and here we focus on the abundance and decision analysis criteria. We estimated population metrics using state-space models for Alaskan breeding populations of spectacled eiders. We projected abundance over 50 years using posterior estimates of abundance and process variation to estimate the probability of quasi-extinction. The decision analysis maps the risk of quasi-extinction to the loss associated with making a misclassification error (i.e., underprotection) through a loss function. Our results indicate that the Yukon Kuskokwim Delta breeding population in western Alaska has met the recovery criteria but the Arctic Coastal Plain population in northern Alaska has not. The methods employed here provide an example of accounting for uncertainty and incorporating value judgements in such a way that the decision-makers may understand the risk of committing a misclassification error. Incorporating the abundance threshold and decision analysis in the reclassification criteria greatly increases the transparency and defensibility of the classification decision, a critical aspect for making effective decisions about species management and conservation.

PLoS ONE↗
USGS2026

Frameworks for assessing tsunami hazard and risk

Tsunamis are multiscale phenomena resulting from a water column displacement that may be induced by multiple sources, and range from local scale inundation processes to ocean-wide scale wave propagation. Different strategies may be required to model tsunami evolution at different scales and to characterize various intensity measures. Research in tsunami hazard and risk has focused mostly on the tsunami effects such as the wave heights or flow depths. This chapter reviews the evolution of tsunami hazard and risk assessment methodologies, with particular emphasis on the development of probabilistic approaches. Building on advances in numerical modeling and uncertainty analysis, two main frameworks for Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard and Risk Analysis (PTHA/PTRA) are described. Framework 1 (FW1) focuses on quantitative methods, including fully simulation-based assessments (FW1A), integration of hazard with vulnerability and loss models (FW1B), consideration of dynamic processes such as tidal and sea-level variations (FW1C), and approaches using limited scenario sets (FW1D). Framework 2 (FW2) complements this by incorporating indicator-based vulnerability assessments, both physical (FW2A) and social, multi-dimensional (FW2B).

Book chapter↗
USGS2019

A statistical forecasting approach to metapopulation viability analysis

Conservation of at‐risk species is aided by reliable forecasts of the consequences of environmental change and management actions on population viability. Forecasts from conventional population viability analysis (PVA) are made using a two‐step procedure in which parameters are estimated, or elicited from expert opinion, and then plugged into a stochastic population model without accounting for parameter uncertainty. Recently developed statistical PVAs differ because forecasts are made conditional on models fitted to empirical data. The statistical forecasting approach allows for uncertainty about parameters, but it has rarely been applied in metapopulation contexts where spatially explicit inference is needed about colonization and extinction dynamics and other forms of stochasticity that influence metapopulation viability. We conducted a statistical metapopulation viability analysis (MPVA) using 11 yr of data on the federally threatened Chiricahua leopard frog ( Lithobates chiricahuensis ) to forecast responses to landscape heterogeneity, drought, environmental stochasticity, and management. We evaluated several future environmental scenarios and pond restoration options designed to reduce extinction risk. Forecasts over a 50‐yr time horizon indicated that metapopulation extinction risk was <4% for all scenarios, but uncertainty was high. Without pond restoration, extinction risk is forecasted to be 3.9% (95% CI 0–37%) by year 2066. Restoring six ponds by increasing their hydroperiod reduced extinction risk to <1% and greatly reduced uncertainty (95% CI 0–2%). Our results suggest that managers can mitigate the impacts of drought and environmental stochasticity on metapopulation viability by maintaining ponds that hold water throughout the year and keeping them free of invasive predators. Our study illustrates the utility of the spatially explicit statistical forecasting approach to MPVA in conservation planning efforts.

Ecological Applications↗
USGS2005

Assessment of seismic risk in Tashkent, Uzbekistan and Bishkek, Kyrgyz Republic

The impact of earthquakes in urban centers prone to disastrous earthquakes necessitates the analysis of associated risk for rational formulation of contingency plans and mitigation strategies. In urban centers the seismic risk is best quantified and portrayed through the preparation of 'Earthquake damage and Loss Scenarios'. The components of such scenarios are the assessment of the hazard, inventories and the vulnerabilities of elements at risk. For the development of earthquake risk scenario in Tashkent-Uzbekistan and Bishkek-Kyrgyzstan an approach based on spectral displacements is utilized. This paper will present the important features of a comprehensive study, highlight the methodology, discuss the results and provide insights to the future developments. ?? 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering↗
USGS2024

Evaluation of extinction risk for stream fishes within an urban riverscape using population viability analysis

1. The Santa Ana River in the Los Angeles region of California demonstrates common habitat degradation symptoms that are characteristic of the urban stream syndrome. These impacts have altered the Santa Ana River community structure, with few species as impacted as the native Santa Ana sucker (sucker; Pantosteus santaanae ). 2. Consequently, a recovery plan developed for sucker identified the need for a population viability analysis (PVA) to assess sucker extirpation risk. However, PVAs can be data-intensive and are subject to several sources of bias when standardized protocols are absent. 3. More than 20 years of sucker and arroyo chub (chub; Gila orcuttii ) surveys using different methods were compiled to build an integrated hierarchical multi-population PVA to estimate trends in abundance and extirpation probability of these native fishes from the Santa Ana River. 4. PVA modelling indicated similar patterns in sucker and chub abundance along the Santa Ana River, with the highest abundance of both species in the upper regions of the river during the early 2000s and downstream in recent years (2018–2022). Extirpation risk was estimated to be greatest near wastewater treatment facilities, where native fish abundance estimates have been zero since 2018. Extirpation risk was lower downstream of the wastewater treatment facilities for both species, although extinction risk was higher for sucker than chub throughout the river. 5. As the model evolves and more data are collected, the PVA could be used to assess the effects of various management actions, such as non-native predator removals and native fish re-introductions, on sucker and chub persistence.

California↗
USGS2025

Potential interactions between birds and floating photovoltaic solar energy: Spatially informed species vulnerabilities, techno-ecological risks, and sustainability trade-offs

Floating photovoltaics (floating solar panels; FPV) can reduce the negative impacts of solar energy development in terrestrial environments, but their effects on freshwater ecosystems remain poorly understood. We examined potential FPV interactions with avian biodiversity, using previously modeled technical potential of FPV in the northeastern United States. We developed a vulnerability index based on avian species’: (i) morphological traits, (ii) level of conservation concern, and (iii) habitat requirements. Using eBird participatory science data, we assessed the risk of FPV to 291 species of birds occurring at FPV-suitable waterbodies based on their vulnerability index and estimated relative abundance at each location. The greatest risk of FPVs to birds was associated with waterbodies near the Atlantic coast and Great Lakes, and most (80%) of these high-risk waterbodies were smaller waterbodies. Because the avian risk at FPV-suitable waterbodies was not correlated with estimated energy generation, reducing risk to birds might not require energy trade-offs. Moreover, avoiding FPV installations at waterbodies predicted to pose high risk to birds is likely to return social and recreational benefits while minimizing risk of biofouling. Our analysis provides a framework for proactively evaluating risk, reducing potential adverse impacts of FPV to birds, and identifying cobenefits of sustainable FPV siting across waterscapes.

Connecticut, Delaware, Maine, Maryland, Massachuse↗
USGS2013

The conservation status of the world’s reptiles

Effective and targeted conservation action requires detailed information about species, their distribution, systematics and ecology as well as the distribution of threat processes which affect them. Knowledge of reptilian diversity remains surprisingly disparate, and innovative means of gaining rapid insight into the status of reptiles are needed in order to highlight urgent conservation cases and inform environmental policy with appropriate biodiversity information in a timely manner. We present the first ever global analysis of extinction risk in reptiles, based on a random representative sample of 1500 species (16% of all currently known species). To our knowledge, our results provide the first analysis of the global conservation status and distribution patterns of reptiles and the threats affecting them, highlighting conservation priorities and knowledge gaps which need to be addressed urgently to ensure the continued survival of the world’s reptiles. Nearly one in five reptilian species are threatened with extinction, with another one in five species classed as Data Deficient. The proportion of threatened reptile species is highest in freshwater environments, tropical regions and on oceanic islands, while data deficiency was highest in tropical areas, such as Central Africa and Southeast Asia, and among fossorial reptiles. Our results emphasise the need for research attention to be focussed on tropical areas which are experiencing the most dramatic rates of habitat loss, on fossorial reptiles for which there is a chronic lack of data, and on certain taxa such as snakes for which extinction risk may currently be underestimated due to lack of population information. Conservation actions specifically need to mitigate the effects of human-induced habitat loss and harvesting, which are the predominant threats to reptiles.

Biological Conservation↗
USGS2019

Implications of seismic design values for economic losses

In the U.S., seismic design values are determined mostly through a risk-targeting process, which combines information about the expected collapse fragility of code-designed structures with seismic hazard at a site. However, this target only applies where the risk-targeted ground motions govern the design. In other areas, primarily close to active faults, seismic design values are reduced to values calculated from deterministic seismic hazard analysis, increasing seismic risk for near-fault sites by an unknown quantity. This study investigates the implications of designing buildings using deterministic and probabilistic design values in terms of earthquake-induced economic consequences. This investigation is carried out using a performance-based seismic risk assessment of modern code-designed buildings with various structural systems, following the FEMA P-58 framework. Specifically, structural responses and losses associated with code-designed systems (i.e., reinforced concrete, steel, wood light frame, and precast tilt-up buildings) considering different design values (i.e., risk-targeted, deterministic, and uniform-hazard) are assessed. This study finds that, while risk-targeted design maps specify a uniform collapse risk, they do not provide uniform risk of economic losses to modern buildings across the U.S. and are instead dependent on building type and site properties. Also, for the sites in this study governed by deterministic capping, design values in the current code may be up to 30% lower than design values derived from risk-targeted design maps, resulting in up to 40% higher expected seismic losses.

Conference Paper↗
USGS2013

Atmospheric deposition and critical loads for nitrogen and metals in Arctic Alaska: Review and current status

To protect important resources under their bureau’s purview, the United States National Park Service’s (NPS) Arctic Network (ARCN) has developed a series of “vital signs” that are to be periodically monitored. One of these vital signs focuses on wet and dry deposition of atmospheric chemicals and further, the establishment of critical load (CL) values (thresholds for ecological effects based on cumulative depositional loadings) for nitrogen (N), sulfur, and metals. As part of the ARCN terrestrial monitoring programs, samples of the feather moss Hylocomium splendens are being col- lected and analyzed as a cost-effective means to monitor atmospheric pollutant deposition in this region. Ultimately, moss data combined with refined CL values might be used to help guide future regulation of atmospheric contaminant sources potentially impacting Arctic Alaska. But first, additional long-term studies are needed to determine patterns of contaminant deposition as measured by moss biomonitors and to quantify ecosystem responses at particular loadings/ ranges of contaminants within Arctic Alaska. Herein we briefly summarize 1) current regulatory guidance related to CL values 2) derivation of CL models for N and metals, 3) use of mosses as biomonitors of atmospheric deposition and loadings, 4) preliminary analysis of vulnerabilities and risks associated with CL estimates for N, 5) preliminary analysis of existing data for characterization of CL values for N for interior Alaska and 6) implications for managers and future research needs.

Alaska↗
USGS2022

Assessing mineral supply concentration from different perspectives through a case study of zinc

Increasing demand for nonfuel mineral commodities has increased concerns regarding the reliability of their supplies. “Criticality” assessments over the past decade have attempted to capture this concern through a set of indicators, the most common of which quantifies the risk associated with market concentration by applying the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) to the world production of a given commodity by country in a given year. Although this approach is useful, it inherently assumes that all of world production is available to the market and is thus potentially at risk. In this analysis, the HHI, as well as HHI weighted by country governance, is calculated for mined and refined zinc using the standard approach of using all world production data and comparing that to the HHI when using the best estimate of what is available to the world market. The results indicate that although the HHI of both mined and refined zinc world production has increased markedly over the past decade, the HHI for what is available to the market for mined and refined zinc has remained relatively constant and low, which is indicative of minimal supply risk. This is mainly owing to the fact that a large and increasing share of the world’s mined and refined zinc production comes from China, but that production supplies domestic consumption as well as small amounts of exports. As a result, the zinc materials that are available to the world market outside of China are produced by a relatively large and diverse set of countries. Although these analyses are specific to zinc, they are likely to be comparable for other commodities of which the largest producers are also the largest consumers and highlight the importance of examining different perspectives in criticality assessments.

Mineral Economics↗