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A visualization tool to support decision making in environmental and biological planning

Large-scale ecosystem management involves consideration of many factors for informed decision making. The EverVIEW Data Viewer is a cross-platform desktop decision support tool to help decision makers compare simulation model outputs from competing plans for restoring Florida's Greater Everglades. The integration of NetCDF metadata conventions into EverVIEW allows end-users from multiple institutions within and beyond the Everglades restoration community to share information and tools. Our development process incorporates continuous interaction with targeted end-users for increased likelihood of adoption. One of EverVIEW's signature features is side-by-side map panels, which can be used to simultaneously compare species or habitat impacts from alternative restoration plans. Other features include examination of potential restoration plan impacts across multiple geographic or tabular displays, and animation through time. As a result of an iterative, standards-driven approach, EverVIEW is relevant to large-scale planning beyond Florida, and is used in multiple biological planning efforts in the United States.

Environmental Modelling and Software

Multi-hazard risk analysis for the U.S. Department of the Interior: An integration of expert elicitation, planning priorities, and geospatial analysis

An integral part of disaster risk management is identifying and prioritizing hazards and their potential impacts in a meaningful way to support risk-reduction planning. There has been considerable use and subsequent criticism of threat prioritization efforts that simply compare likelihoods and consequences of plausible threats. This article summarizes a new mixed-methods and scalable approach for prioritizing risks in a multi-hazard, multi-objective, and multi-criteria organizational context. This approach integrates (1) hazard characterizations using subject-matter-expert (SME) elicitation, (2) expressed preferences in planning priorities provided by emergency managers, and (3) quantitative estimates of asset exposure to hazards using geospatial data and geographic-information-systems (GIS) software. We demonstrate this approach with a case study designed to support multi-hazard mitigation and response planning done by the U.S. Department of the Interior (DOI) Office of Emergency Management, which required a national understanding of the risks posed by 75 natural, technological, and adversarial hazards to DOI managed and administered lands, facilities, people, revenues, and resources. Results demonstrate that hazard priorities vary depending on the asset, scale, and risk-management context, thereby making the case that “one-size-fits-all” hazard rankings have limited utility or relevance to real-world, risk mitigation and response planning. Our results suggest that recognizing the risk-management context provides greater transparency, flexibility, and relevance in comparing threats than traditional likelihood-threat matrices or the use of hazard SMEs to decide for planners which hazard scenarios are emphasized in risk planning.

International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction

Using known populations of pronghorn to evaluate sampling plans and estimators

Although sampling plans and estimators of abundance have good theoretical properties, their performance in real situations is rarely assessed because true population sizes are unknown. We evaluated widely used sampling plans and estimators of population size on 3 known clustered distributions of pronghorn ( Antilocapra americana ). Our criteria were accuracy of the estimate, coverage of 95% confidence intervals, and cost. Sampling plans were combinations of sampling intensities (16, 33, and 50%), sample selection (simple random sampling without replacement, systematic sampling, and probability proportional to size sampling with replacement), and stratification. We paired sampling plans with suitable estimators (simple, ratio, and probability proportional to size). We used area of the sampling unit as the auxiliary variable for the ratio and probability proportional to size estimators. All estimators were nearly unbiased, but precision was generally low (overall mean coefficient of variation [CV] = 29). Coverage of 95% confidence intervals was only 89% because of the highly skewed distribution of the pronghorn counts and small sample sizes, especially with stratification. Stratification combined with accurate estimates of optimal stratum sample sizes increased precision, reducing the mean CV from 33 without stratification to 25 with stratification; costs increased 23%. Precise results ( x̄ CV = 13) but poor confidence interval coverage (83%) were obtained with simple and ratio estimators when the allocation scheme included all sampling units in the stratum containing most pronghorn. Although areas of the sampling units varied, ratio estimators and probability proportional to size sampling did not increase precision, possibly because of the clumped distribution of pronghorn. Managers should be cautious in using sampling plans and estimators to estimate abundance of aggregated populations.

North Dakota

Hydrologic data for water-management plans—A resource for Tribal Governments in Oklahoma

Introduction The major streams in Oklahoma, and the alluvial aquifers associated with those major streams, are important resources for the 39 federally recognized Tribes in Oklahoma. Many Tribal Governments are interested in developing water-management plans (hereinafter referred to as “water plans”) to preserve water resources for the future. This report provides a general overview of the types of information and data needed to prepare comprehensive water plans. To assist Tribes in the development of water plans, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Bureau of Indian Affairs, has outlined the steps necessary for creation of such plans.

Oklahoma

North Central Climate Adaptation Science Center regional science plan—2023–28

The U.S. Geological Survey North Central Climate Adaptation Science Center (NC CASC), established in 2012, is part of a national network supporting climate-informed decisions that benefit wildlife and habitats. The NC CASC provides climate science for the U.S. Department of the Interior, State agencies, and Tribal nations to support effective resource management. Collaborating with the National and Regional Climate Adaptation Science Center network, the NC CASC addresses multiregion challenges through a partnership involving the U.S. Geological Survey and additional regional partners. Input is collected from an Advisory Committee of State, Federal, and Tribal Government representatives. The center hosts Tribal Climate Resilience Liaisons, which are funded by the Bureau of Indian Affairs Branch of Tribal Climate Resilience and aligned with a Tribal Engagement Strategy. Positioned at the meeting point of scientists and managers and guided by core values, the NC CASC studies diverse ecosystems affected by climate change and empowers resource managers with actionable data and innovative science. This report outlines the 5-year Science Plan (hereafter “the Plan”) for the NC CASC. The center uses stakeholder engagement and coproduction of knowledge for effective collaboration, including engagement of Advisory Committee members and other management partners in the development of the Plan. The Plan provides a high-level overview of the NC CASC, covering the center’s geographical scope, key collaborators, stakeholders, and the strategic framework guiding the application of climate science to make informed management decisions. The Plan also summarizes management challenges and scientific objectives related to the impact of climate change on habitat, ecological drought, wildlife disease, invasives and encroachment, fire, and phenology.

Colorado, Kansas, Montana, North Dakota, Nebraska,

Enhancing The National Map Through Tactical Planning and Performance Monitoring

Tactical planning and performance monitoring are initial steps toward improving 'the way The National Map works' and supporting the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Science Strategy. This Tactical Performance Planning Summary for The National Map combines information from The National Map 2.0 Tactical Plan and The National Map Performance Milestone Matrix. The National Map 2.0 Tactical Plan is primarily a working document to guide The National Map program's execution, production, and metrics monitoring for fiscal years (FY) 2008 and 2009. The Tactical Plan addresses data, products, and services, as well as supporting and enabling activities. The National Map's 2-year goal for FY 2008 and FY 2009 is to provide a range of geospatial products and services that further the National Spatial Data Infrastructure and underpin USGS science. To do this, the National Geospatial Program will develop a renewed understanding during FY 2008 of key customer needs and requirements, develop the infrastructure to support The National Map business model, modernize its business processes, and reengineer its workforce. Priorities for The National Map will be adjusted if necessary to respond to changes to the project that may impact resources, constrain timeframes, or change customer needs. The supporting and enabling activities that make it possible to produce the products and services of The National Map will include partnership activities, improved compatibility of systems, outreach, and integration of data themes.

Fact Sheet

Quality-Assurance Plan for Water-Quality Activities in the U.S. Geological Survey Washington Water Science Center

In accordance with guidelines set forth by the Office of Water Quality in the Water Resources Discipline of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), this quality-assurance plan has been created for use by the USGS Washington Water Science Center (WAWSC) in conducting water-quality activities. The plan documents the standards, policies, and procedures used by the personnel of the WAWSC for activities related to the collection, processing, storage, analysis, and publication of water-quality data. The policies and procedures that are documented in this quality-assurance plan for water-quality activities are meant to complement the WAWSC's quality-assurance plans for surface-water and ground-water activities and to supplement the WAWSC quality-assurance plan.

Open-File Report

Quality-assurance and data management plan for groundwater activities by the U.S. Geological Survey in Kansas, 2014

As the Nation’s principle earth-science information agency, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is depended on to collect data of the highest quality. This document is a quality-assurance plan for groundwater activities (GWQAP) of the Kansas Water Science Center. The purpose of this GWQAP is to establish a minimum set of guidelines and practices to be used by the Kansas Water Science Center to ensure quality in groundwater activities. Included within these practices are the assignment of responsibilities for implementing quality-assurance activities in the Kansas Water Science Center and establishment of review procedures needed to ensure the technical quality and reliability of the groundwater products. In addition, this GWQAP is intended to complement quality-assurance plans for surface-water and water-quality activities and similar plans for the Kansas Water Science Center and general project activities throughout the USGS. This document provides the framework for collecting, analyzing, and reporting groundwater data that are quality assured and quality controlled. This GWQAP presents policies directing the collection, processing, analysis, storage, review, and publication of groundwater data. In addition, policies related to organizational responsibilities, training, project planning, and safety are presented. These policies and practices pertain to all groundwater activities conducted by the Kansas Water Science Center, including data-collection programs, interpretive and research projects. This report also includes the data management plan that describes the progression of data management from data collection to archiving and publication.

Open-File Report

Quality-assurance plan for groundwater activities, U.S. Geological Survey Dakota Water Science Center

As the Nation’s principal earth-science information agency, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is depended upon to collect accurate data and produce factual and impartial interpretive reports. Methods for data collection and analysis that were developed by the USGS have become standard techniques used by numerous Federal, State, and local agencies and by private enterprises. The USGS has implemented a program designed to ensure that all scientific work done by or for USGS Water Science Centers is done in accordance with a quality-assurance plan. The implementation of a groundwater quality-assurance plan will enhance groundwater data collected by the USGS. This report is a quality-assurance plan for groundwater activities conducted by the USGS Dakota Water Science Center and is meant to complement qualityassurance plans for surface-water and water-quality activities and similar plans for the Dakota Water Science Center and general project activities throughout the USGS.

Open-File Report

Guidelines for preparing a quality assurance plan for district offices of the U.S. Geological Survey

The U.S. Geological Survey has a policy that requires each District office to prepare a Quality Assurance Plan. This plan is a combination of a District's management principles and quality assurance processes. The guidelines presented in this report provide a framework or expanded outline that a District can use to prepare a plan. Parti- cular emphasis is given to a District's: (1) quality assurance policies; (2) organization and staff responsibilities; and (3) program and project planning. The guidelines address the 'how', 'what', and 'who' questions that need to be answered when a District Quality Assurance Plan is prepared.

Open-File Report

A workbook for preparing a district quality- assurance plan for water-quality activities

APPEARS TO BE A REPORT ON HOW TO WRITE REPORTS --THE 'ABSTRACT' THAT FOLLOWS IS JUST THE GENERIC ABSTRACT TO BE USED FOR WATER USE REPORTS: In accordance with guidelines set forth by the Office of Water Quality in the Water Resources Division of the U.S. Geological Survey, a quality-assurance plan has been created for use by the [State name] District in conducting water-quality activities. This quality-assurance plan documents the standards, policies, and procedures used by the [State name] District for activities related to the collection, processing, storage, analysis, and publication of water-quality data. The policies and procedures that are documented in this quality-assurance plan for water-quality activities are meant to complement the District quality-assurance plans for surface-water and ground-water activities and to supplement the [State name] District quality-assurance plan.

Open-File Report

Desert Tortoise translocation plan for the U.S. Department of the Army National Training Center and Fort Irwin Western Training Area

The U.S. Department of the Army proposes to commence military activity at the Fort Irwin National Training Center within the Western Training Area (WTA) and to translocate Mojave Desert tortoises ( Gopherus agassizii ; hereafter tortoise) that will be affected to the Western Training Area Translocation Site (WTATS). This desert tortoise translocation plan provides a timeline of activities, actions for which permits may be required, and guidelines for assessing the short-term and long-term success of this desert tortoise translocation. Importantly, the monitoring projects described are designed to document the ultimate effects of the Army's translocation action (not just inform future translocations elsewhere). Results from the translocation, corresponding monitoring, and research projects will inform future translocations throughout the Mojave Desert for expanding human development. The plan has three main objectives: (1) provide guidelines to achieve a safe, humane, and successful translocation of tortoises from the WTA, with minimal effect to resident desert tortoises at sites where translocated animals are released (recipient sites); (2) study translocated, resident, and reference animals (tortoises living near translocation areas but whose home ranges do not overlap those of translocated or resident tortoises) to learn as much as possible about the ecology, conservation, and management of the desert tortoise; and (3) define best management practices for successful translocation and provide metrics to evaluate success over multiple time scales, which we identify for the short- and long-term. The procedures to plan, implement, monitor, and study translocation of tortoises were written using terms and conditions outlined in the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Biological Opinion 2021 that described effects of the expansion of the military base boundary, as well as recommendations provided in the Desert Tortoise Recovery Plan (and 5-year review). We provide guidance on appropriate translocation timing and procedures, as well as on how tortoise ecology and habitat can best be studied to further knowledge on tortoise translocation. The plan provides analysis for landscape tortoise density and abundance estimates, suitable sites for translocation of tortoises, and short- and long-term metrics that are addressed and measured by specific monitoring and research projects that can be used to assess the success of translocation activities.

California

Climate-resource scenarios to inform climate change adaptation in Wrangell-St. Elias National Park and Preserve: Summary of 2021 climate change scenario planning

This report illustrates use of scenario planning as a climate change adaptation tool supporting Wrangell-St. Elias National Park and Preserve’s Resource Stewardship Strategy. The primary objective of scenario planning is to help resource managers and scientists make management and planning decisions informed by assessments of critical future uncertainties. This report outlines a process that synthesized future climate projections into three distinct but plausible and relevant climate summaries for the focal area and used them to develop climate-resource scenarios through participatory scenario planning. Initial steps identified the priority resource management topics and the corresponding related climate uncertainties. Next, local climate summaries were used to develop divergent climate futures: those that describe the broadest possible range of plausible conditions while capturing relevant uncertainty. The final phase further developed the climate futures and their resource implications. These participatory scenario planning exercises occurred virtually in fall (August–November) 2021. The climate-resource scenarios informed adaptation strategies in conjunction with the park’s Resource Stewardship Strategy development. The scope and complexity of this effort is unique but elements from the scenarios and resource implications have broad applicability to other large, protected areas in Alaska and Northwest Canada.

Alaska

Decision analysis in support of proactive planning for chronic wasting disease in Vermont, USA

Chronic wasting disease (CWD), a fatal, transmissible disease in white-tailed deer ( Odocoileus virginianus ) and related species, is spreading across North America but has not yet been detected in Vermont, United States (U.S.). The Vermont Department of Fish and Wildlife, along with partner agencies, wants to develop a proactive prevention and response plan in anticipation of the eventual detection of the disease. Between September 2023 and September 2025, staff from the U.S. Geological Survey and the University of Vermont facilitated a structured decision-making (SDM) process with seven State and Federal agencies that have jurisdiction over some aspect of CWD management in Vermont. The aim of this process was to generate and evaluate alternative response plans against a range of long-term objectives important to the agencies. To aid in the evaluation of the alternatives, we developed a linked set of models for white-tailed deer population and disease dynamics, hunter participation and health, forest health, economic consequences, and agricultural opportunities related to the actions being contemplated as part of the response plan. We evaluated over 256 different permutations of management actions and used multi-criteria decision analysis, a branch of decision analysis designed to help decision makers navigate tradeoffs among competing objectives, to summarize the performance of those alternative strategies against the desired outcomes. Proactive actions—those designed to slow the arrival of CWD to Vermont—were moderately effective, but the most important proactive action was surveillance to detect the disease early after arrival, which triggered response actions after detection. With the insights generated by the SDM process and the results of the analyses, the participating agencies were able to identify a preferred strategy and outline the elements of a proactive response plan. This report describes the SDM process, the technical details of the modeling work, and the results of the analyses. It is intended to serve as the technical basis for Vermont’s response plan.

BioRxiv

Recommendations for a barrier island breach management plan for Fire Island National Seashore, including the Otis Pike High Dune Wilderness Area, Long Island, New York

The U.S Army Corps of Engineers, New York District is developing engineering plans, including economic costs and benefits, for storm damage reduction along an 83 mile stretch of the coastal barrier islands and beaches on the south shore of Long Island, NY from Fire Island Inlet east to the Montauk Point headland. The plan, expected to include various alternatives for storm protection and erosion mitigation, is referred to as the Fire Island to Montauk Point Reformulation Plan (FIMP). These plans are expected to follow the Corps of Engineers’ Environmental Operating Principles striving for long term environmental sustainability and balance between environmental protection and protection of human health and property. Fire Island National Seashore (FIIS), a 19,579 acre unit of the National Park System includes a 32 mile long coastal barrier island located within the FIMP project area. A seven-mile section of the park, Otis Pike Fire Island High Dune Wilderness Area, is also a designated Federal Wilderness Area. The FIIS includes not only the barrier island and sand dunes, but also several islands, sand flats and wetlands landward of the barrier, submerged parts of Great South Bay shoreface, extending approximately 4,000 feet into the bay with the inner shelf region extending approximately 1,000 feet seaward of the Fire Island shoreline. The Fire Island barrier islands, a sand-starved system dominated by highly dynamic processes, are struggling to maintain their integrity in the face of sea-level rise and storms. Adding to the dilemma is that development on the barriers and the mainland has increased greatly during the past 50 years. As such, managers and decision makers in federal agencies, state agencies and local governments are challenged to balance tradeoffs between protection of lives and property, public access and long term conservation of natural habitats and processes and the plants and animals that depend on these habitats. National Park Service (NPS) policy stipulates that natural coastal processes be maintained to the greatest extent possible and not be impeded so as to conserve landforms, habitats and natural ecosystem resources that reply on the landforms and processes for long-term sustainability of the national park. Storms and associated processes such as waves, tides, currents and relative sea-level change are critical elements for the formation and evolution of these barrier islands, sand dunes, back-barrier sand flats and lagoons and vegetated wetlands. Processes such as wave run-up, overwash and barrier beaching, which occur during elevated storm surge are all necessary processes in enabling the efficient transfer of sediments, nutrients and marine water from the Atlantic Ocean across barriers and into Great South Bay. A large body of scientific data and information published over the past 50 years shows that such transfers of sediment and water from the ocean to the bays are essential for the long-term maintenance of the barrier island and back-bay systems and their biologically diverse habitats an d ecosystems. Current relative sea-level rise (~12 in/century) is chronic and pervasive in driving Long Island coastal change and with the likelihood of accelerating sea level rise in the near future, coastal hazards such as erosion, inundation, and storm surge flooding will increase, with corresponding increased risk to life and property on both Fire Island and on the mainland. In addition, the cumulative effects over the past century and more, both direct and indirect, of human impacts on the Long Island coast have altered the barrier beach and dunes and sediment transport processes. These impacts have likely increased the potential for breaching and increased risk to life and property on the coast and the mainland. Examples of direct impacts are: the stone jetties at Moriches, Shinnecock, and Fire Island tidal inlets and groin field structures at Westhampton that alter littoral processes, armoring and erosion-control stabilization of the headlandds such as the Montauk Point headlands, and deepening of navigation channels by dredging through the tidal inlets and in the bays. Indirect impacts that have a bearing on decisions to deal with breaching are: high-risk development of the barrier islands and low-lying areas of the mainland vulnerable to flooding, and the dredging of nearshore sand shoals for beach nourishment. The NPS strives to employ a coastal management framework for decision making that is based on assessment of the physical and ecological properties of the shoreline as well as human welfare and property. In order to protect developed areas of Fire Island and the mainland from loss of life, flooding, and other economic and physical damage, the NPS will likely need to consider allowing artificial closure of some breaches within the FIIS under certain circumstances. The decision by the NPS to allow breaches to evolve naturally and possibly close or to allow artificially closing breaches is based on four criteria: 1. Volumes of sediment transported landward and exchange of water and nutrients; 2. Elevated water levels and flooding risk to mainland life and property; 3. Engineering processes of artificial closure; and 4. Economic costs and benefits of artificial closure. This report for breach management presents protocols which specify when breach closures within the FIIS might be desirable and necessary, as well as provides recommendations for structural breach closure engineering operations which are indented to minimize negative impacts to the natural wilderness values and cultural resources within the FIIS, particularly the Otis Pike Wilderness Area. The goal of the plan is to strike a balance between protecting natural resources and allowing natural processes to operate and avoiding loss of life and excessive property damage.

New York

Partners in flight bird conservation plan for the Upper Great Lakes Plain (Physiographic Area 16)

1 November 2001. Conservation of bird habitats is a major focus of effort by Partners in Flight, an international coalition of agencies, citizens, and other groups dedicated to 'keeping common birds common'. USGS worked on a planning team to publish a bird conservation plan for the Upper Great Lakes Plain ecoregion (PIF 16), which includes large portions of southern Wisconsin, southern Michigan and parts of Minnesota, Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio. The conservation plan outlines specific habitat restoration and bird population objectives for the ecoregion over the next decade. The plan provides a context for on-the-ground conservation implementation by the US Fish and Wildlife Service, the USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service, the US Forest Service, states, and conservation groups. Citation: Knutson, M. G., G. Butcher, J. Fitzgerald, and J. Shieldcastle. 2001. Partners in Flight Bird Conservation Plan for The Upper Great Lakes Plain (Physiographic Area 16). USGS Upper Midwest Environmental Sciences Center in cooperation with Partners in Flight, La Crosse, Wisconsin. Download from website: http://www.blm.gov/wildlife/pifplans.htm. The Upper Great Lakes Plain covers the southern half of Michigan, northwest Ohio, northern Indiana, northern Illinois, southern Wisconsin, and small portions of southwest Minnesota and northwest Iowa. Glacial moraines and dissected plateaus are characteristic of the topography. Broadleaf forests, oak savannahs, and a variety of prairie communities are the natural vegetation types. A oDriftless Areao was not glaciated during the late Pleistocene and emerged as a unique area of great biological diversity. Priority bird species for the area include the Henslow's Sparrow, Sedge Wren, Bobolink, Golden-winged Warbler, Cerulean Warbler, Black-billed Cuckoo, and Red-headed Woodpecker. There are many large urban centers in this area whose growth and sprawl will continue to consume land. The vast majority of the presettlement forest and oak savannah grasslands already have been converted to agriculture. The conversion to cropland may have benefitted some grassland birds, and forest birds still persist. Rates of cowbird parasitism and nest predation in this heavily fragmented region, however, are extremely high and it is possible that only those bird communities in the few remaining expanses of contiguous habitat are self-sustaining. Forest habitat needs to be retained or restored so that a significant number of patches of sufficient size and quality each support a healthy population of Cerulean Warblers. It is assumed that each of these patches will then support the full range of forest birds. The total area of savannah habitat also should be increased, although the need for large blocks is not as apparent. Those few areas of grassland that still exist should be retained.

Report

The challenges associated with developing science-based landscape scale management plans

Planning activities over large landscapes poses a complex of challenges when trying to balance the implementation of a conservation strategy while still allowing for a variety of consumptive and nonconsumptive uses. We examine a case in southeast Alaska to illustrate the breadth of these challenges and an approach to developing a science-based resource plan. Not only was the planning area, the Tongass National Forest, USA, exceptionally large (approximately 17 million acres or 6.9 million ha), but it also is primarily an island archipelago environment. The water system surrounding and going through much of the forest provides access to facilitate the movement of people, animals, and plants but at the same time functions as a barrier to others. This largest temperate rainforest in the world is an exceptional example of the complexity of managing at such a scale but also illustrates the role of science in the planning process. As we enter the 21st century, the list of questions needing scientific investigation has not only changed dramatically, but the character of the questions also has changed. Questions are contentious, cover broad scales in space and time, and are highly complex and interdependent. The provision of unbiased and objective information to all stakeholders is an important step in informed decision-making.

Landscape and Urban Planning

Conservation planning for imperiled aquatic species in an urbanizing environment

As the global area devoted to urban uses grows, an increasing number of freshwater species will face imperilment due to urbanization effects. Management of these impacts on both private and public lands is necessary to ensure species persistence. Such management entails several hallenges: (1) development of a management policy appropriate to the stressors; (2) linking stressor levels to species population attributes; (3) forecasting the effects of alternative management policy decisions on the species, and (4) using adaptive management to adjust the policy in the future. We illustrate how these challenges were addressed under the Etowah Habitat Conservation Plan (Etowah HCP), a management plan for three federally protected fish species in Georgia, USA. The plan involved the creation of a management policy to address the impacts of the greatest stressor, stormwater runoff, as well as other stressors. Models were constructed to link population indices of the three species with a key indicator of stormwater runoff, effective impervious area (EIA). Then, models were applied to projected levels of EIA under full watershed buildout to fine-tune the parameters of the management policy. Forecasting indicated that the most sensitive species, the Etowah darter, was likely to decline by 84% in the absence of the Etowah HCP, but only 23% if the Etowah HCP were implemented. Although there was substantial uncertainty in model predictions, an adaptive management plan was established to incorporate new data and to adjust management policies as necessary.

Landscape and Urban Planning