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USGS2024

Aftershock forecasting

Aftershocks can compound the impacts of a major earthquake, disrupting recovery efforts and potentially further damaging weakened buildings and infrastructure. Forecasts of the probability of aftershocks can therefore aid decision-making during earthquake response and recovery. Several countries issue authoritative aftershock forecasts. Most aftershock forecasts are based on simple statistical models that were first developed in the 1980s and remain the best available models. We review these statistical models, and the wide-ranging research to advance aftershock forecasting through better statistical, physical, and machine learning methods. Physics-based forecasts based on mainshock stress changes can sometimes match the statistical models in testing, but don’t yet outperform them. Physical models are also hampered by unsolved problems such as the mechanics of dynamic triggering and the influence of background conditions. Initial work on machine learning forecasts shows promise, and new machine learning earthquake catalogs provide an opportunity to advance all types of aftershock forecasts.

Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences↗

USGS2022

A review of the exploration, discovery, and characterization of highly concentrated gas hydrate accumulations in coarse-grained reservoir systems along the Eastern Continental Margin of India

The analysis of 3-D seismic data has become one of the most powerful ways to identify sand-rich gas hydrate reservoir systems and to directly identify highly concentrated gas hydrate prospects. Scientific drilling programs have shown that the occurrence of highly concentrated gas hydrate accumulations in coarse-grained, sand-rich, reservoir systems has a significant impact on the physical properties of sediments, allowing gas hydrates to be “directly detected” by conventional seismic analysis techniques. One of the most diagnostic responses of a gas hydrate-bearing sand reservoir is that of a high-velocity sedimentary section and an associated high-amplitude seismic response with a reflection polarity matching that of the seafloor. Knowledge of this physical relationship guided the Indian National Gas Hydrate Program Expedition 02 (NGHP-02) in their pre-drill site review and selection effort along the eastern continental margin of India in 2016. Within the planning, operational and post-operational data analysis phases of the NGHP-02 Expedition, scientists relied heavily on the analyses of the (1) pre-expedition acquired 3-D seismic data from offshore India, (2) downhole logging data acquired during NGHP-02 and (3) core samples and data obtained from NGHP-02 conventional- and pressure-cores to identify gas hydrates and assess the geologic controls on the formation and stability of these accumulations. Data analysis has confirmed the presence of extensive sand-rich depositional systems throughout the deepwater portions of the Krishna-Godavari and Mahanadi Basins in the Bay of Bengal. Two areas of the Krishna-Godavari Basin contain substantial gas hydrate accumulations in sand-rich systems, representing candidate sites for future potential energy exploitation.

Bay of Bengal, Krishna-Godavari Basin, Mahanadi Ba↗

USGS2021

Electrical conductivity of the lithosphere-asthenosphere system

Electromagnetic geophysical methods image the electrical conductivity of the subsurface. Electrical conductivity is an intrinsic material property that is sensitive to temperature, composition, porosity, volatile and/or melt content, and other physical properties relevant to the solid Earth. Therefore, imaging the electrical structure of the crust and mantle yields valuable information on the physical and chemical state of the lithosphere-asthenosphere system. Here we explore the viability of the passive magnetotelluric (MT) method for constraining upper mantle properties. We approach this problem in four successive steps: 1) review the electrical conductivity behavior of relevant materials; 2) predict the bulk electrical conductivity structure of oceanic and continental lithosphere for a suite of representative physical states; 3) generate synthetic MT data from the conductivity predictions; 4) compare and discuss the conductivity predictions and the synthetic data with select case studies from oceanic and continental settings. Our aim is to clarify the uncertainties associated with drawing inferences from electrical conductivity observations and ultimately to provide a basis for assigning confidence levels to interpretations.

Physics of the Earth and Planetary Interiors↗

USGS2023

The role of giant impacts in planet formation

Planets are expected to conclude their growth through a series of giant impacts: energetic, global events that significantly alter planetary composition and evolution. Computer models and theory have elucidated the diverse outcomes of giant impacts in detail, improving our ability to interpret collision conditions from observations of their remnants. However, many open questions remain, as even the formation of the Moon—a widely suspected giant-impact product for which we have the most information—is still debated. We review giant-impact theory, the diverse nature of giant-impact outcomes, and the governing physical processes. We discuss the importance of computer simulations, informed by experiments, for accurately modeling the impact process. Finally, we outline how the application of probability theory and computational advancements can assist in inferring collision histories from observations, and we identify promising opportunities for advancing giant-impact theory in the future. Giant impacts exhibit diverse possible outcomes leading to changes in planetary mass, composition, and thermal history depending on the conditions. Improvements to computer simulation methodologies and new laboratory experiments provide critical insights into the detailed outcomes of giant impacts. When colliding planets are similar in size, they can merge or escape one another with roughly equal probability, but with different effects on their resulting masses, densities, and orbits. Different sequences of giant impacts can produce similar planets, encouraging the use of probability theory to evaluate distinct formation hypothesis.

Annual Reviews of Earth and Planetary Science↗

USGS2001

Measurement of gas yields and flow rates using a custom flowmeter

A simple gas collection apparatus based on the principles of a Torricelli tube has been designed and built to measure gas volume yields and flow rates. This instrument is routinely used to monitor and collect methane gas released during methane hydrate dissociation experiments. It is easily and inexpensively built, operates at ambient pressures and temperatures, and measures gas volumes of up to 7 L to a precision of about 15 ml (about 0.0025 mol). It is capable of measuring gas flow rates varying from more than 103 to less than 10-1 ml/min during gas evolution events that span minutes to several days. We have obtained a highly reproducible hydrate number of n=5.891 with a propagated uncertainty of ??0.020 for synthetic methane hydrate. ?? 2001 American Institute of Physics.

Review of Scientific Instruments↗

USGS2000

Laboratory performance in the Sediment Laboratory Quality-Assurance Project, 1996-98

This report describes the results of the first 3 years of an ongoing study of sediment laboratories used by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). The sediment laboratories currently in operation constitute the entire USGS national laboratory system for sediment analyses. As with all environmental data, physical sediment data can be expected to contain a certain amount of difference, whether the difference resulted from the collecting, transporting, or analyzing of the sample. Because it is important to know how each laboratory is performing, the USGS initiated the Sediment Laboratory Quality-Assurance (SLQA) project in August 1996. From August 1996 through June 1998, five studies were made, the results of which are the basis of this report. The focus of the project is on quantitative analyses done on water-sediment mixtures to derive suspended-sediment concentrations, sediment-mass determinations, and sand/fine separations. For the purpose of this report, all mass determinations are net values—the tare weight of the container is excluded. The fine-size material is defined as particles sieved to a size of less than 62 micrometers (µm) and sand-size material is defined as particles sieved to a size of between 63 and 125 µm. Also, in this report, class 1 samples are defined as samples containing 50 to 100 milligrams (mg) of fine-size material, class 2 samples are defined as samples containing 101 to 300 mg of fine-size material, and class 3 samples are defined as samples containing 2,200 to 3,200 mg of fine-size material. In studies 96-1 through 98-1, the amount of sand added to each sample ranged from 9 to 28 percent of the mass of fine-size material in each sample class. Analytical results from all sediment quality-control samples are compiled and statistically summarized by the USGS, Branch of Quality Systems, both on an intra- and interlaboratory basis. When evaluating these data, the reader needs to keep in mind that every measurement has an error component associated with it. It is premature to use the data from the first five SLQA studies to judge any of the laboratories as performing in an unacceptable manner. There were, however, some notable differences in the results for the 12 laboratories that participated in the five SLQA studies. For example, the overall median percent difference for suspended-sediment concentration on an individual laboratory basis ranged from –18.04 to –0.33 percent. Five of the 12 laboratories had an overall median percent difference for suspended-sediment concentration of –2.02 to –0.33 percent. There was less variability in the median difference for the measured fine-size material mass. The overall median percent difference for fine-size material mass ranged from –10.11 to –4.27 percent. Except for one laboratory, the median difference for fine-size material mass was within a fairly narrow range of –6.76 to –4.27 percent. The median percent difference for sand-size material mass differed among laboratories more than any other physical sediment property measured in the study. The overall median percent difference for the sand-size material mass ranged from –1.49 percent to 26.39 percent. Five of the nine laboratories that do sand/fine separations had overall median percent differences that ranged from –1.49 to 2.98 percent for sand-size material mass. Careful review of the data reveals that certain laboratories consistently produced data within statistical control limits for some or all of the physical sediment properties measured in this study, whereas other laboratories occasionally produced data that exceeded the control limits.

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

USGS2023

A review of grass carp and related species literature on diet, behavior, toxicology, and physiology focused on informing development of controls for invasive grass carp populations in North America

Grass carp ( Ctenopharyngodon idella ) are globally important in aquaculture and aquatic vegetation control. However, escaped grass carp have established invasive populations. A targeted keyword search was performed on a carp (order: Cypriniformes) literature database maintained by the U.S. Geological Survey to identify literature relevant to grass carp. Additional sources cited in reviewed documents and provided by numerous reviewers were also included. There were three focus areas designed to provide support for invasive grass carp management: (1) diet and behavior; (2) physiological constraints, toxicity, and biology; and (3) gut physiology. Each focus area provides information to guide development of potential pathways for invasive grass carp control. Information from other carp species was used to fill in gaps where grass carp information was lacking and provide additional, potential research directions. Diet-related information included food selection and aquacultural diet formulations. Behavioral information included stimuli and non-physical barriers to attract, repel, or stop movement. Physiological constraints, toxicology, reproductive control, and biological control provide a research review for control options. Gut physiology and related control pathways provide knowledge to improve toxin or pathogen delivery. This review provides a basis for developing approaches and research for controlling invasive grass carp populations, aquaculture, and native population management.

Fishes↗

USGS2018

The confluences of ideas leading to, and the flow of ideas emerging from, individual-based modeling of riverine fishes

In this review article, we trace the history of events leading to the development of individual-based models (IBMs) to represent aquatic organisms in rivers and streams. As a metaphor, we present this history as a series of confluences between individual scientists (tributaries) sharing ideas. We describe contributions of these models to science and management. One iconic feature of river IBMs is the linkage between flow and the physical habitat experienced by individual animals, and the first model that focused on this linkage is briefly described. We continue by reviewing the contributions of riverine IBMs to eight broad areas of scientific inquiry. The first four areas include research to understand 1) the effects of flow regimes on fish populations, 2) species interactions (e.g., size-mediated competition and predation), 3) fish movement and habitat selection, and 4) contaminant and water quality impacts on populations. Next, we review research using IBMs 5) to guide conservation biology of imperiled taxa through population viability analysis, including research 6) to understand river fragmentation by dams and reconnection, 7) to understand genetic outcomes for riverine metapopulations, and 8) to anticipate the future effects of temperature and climate change. This rich body of literature has contributed to both theoretical insights (e.g., about animal behavior and life history) and applied insights (e.g., population-level effects of flow regimes, temperature, and the effects of hydropower and other industries that share rivers with aquatic biota). We finish by exploring promising branches that lie ahead in the braided, downstream channel that represents future river modeling research.

Ecological Modelling↗

USGS2011

Vertebrate species introductions in the United States and its territories

At least 1,065 introduced vertebrate species have been introduced in the United States and its territories, including at least 86 mammalian, 127 avian, 179 reptilian/amphibian, and 673 fish species. Examples in each major taxonomic group include domestic cat, small Indian mongoose, red fox, goat, pig, rabbit, rats, house mouse, gray squirrel, nutria, starling, Indian common myna, red-vented bulbul, brown treesnake, red-eared slider, brown trout, tilapia, and grass carp. We briefly review some of these species and the types of damage they cause. We then review the basic types of methods used for control or eradication of each taxonomic group, including physical, chemical, biological, and cultural methods. We discuss some of the challenges in managing these species, including issues with the use of toxicants, land access, public attitudes, and monitoring difficulties. Finally, we list some ongoing research and future research needs, including improved detection methods, improved attractants, improved barriers, improved capture methods, fertility control, and risk assessment methods.

Current Zoology↗

USGS2019

The effectiveness of non-native fish removal techniques in freshwater ecosystems: a systematic review

In aquatic systems, biological invasions can result in adverse ecological effects. Management techniques available for non-native fish removal programs (including eradication and population size control) vary widely, but include chemicals, harvest regimes, physical removal, or biological control. For management agencies, deciding on what non-native fish removal program to use has been challenging because there is little reliable information about the relative effectiveness of these measures in controlling or eradicating non-native fish. We conducted a systematic review, including a critical appraisal of study validity, to assess the effectiveness of different non-native fish removal methods, and to identify the factors that influence the overall success rate of each type of method. We found 95 relevant studies, generating 158 data sets. The evidence base was dominated by poorly documented studies with inadequate experimental designs (76% of removal projects). When the management goal was non-native fish eradication, chemical treatments were relatively successful (antimycin 75%; rotenone 89%) compared to other interventions. Electrofishing and passive removal measure studies indicated successful eradication was possible (58% each respectively) but required intensive effort and multiple treatments over a number of years. Of these studies with sufficient information, electrofishing had the highest success for population size control (56% of data sets). Overall, inadequate data quality and completeness severely limited our ability to make strong conclusions about the relationships between non-native fish abundance and different methods of eradication and population control, and the factors influencing the overall success rate of each method. Our review highlights that there is considerable scope for improving our evaluations of non-native fish removal methods. It is recommended that programs should have explicitly stated objectives, better data reporting, and study designs that (when possible and appropriate) incorporate replicated and controlled investigations with rigorous, long-term quantitative monitoring. Future research on the effectiveness of non-native fish removal methods should focus on: (1) the efficacy of existing or potentially new removal measures in larger, more complex environments; (2) a broader range of removal measures in general, and (3) phenotypic characteristics of individual fish within a population that fail to be eradicated or controlled.

Environmental Reviews↗

USGS2015

Book review: Natural resources in Afghanistan: Geographic and geologic perspectives on centuries of conflict

This book is the outcome of four decades of work in Afghanistan by the author, John (Jack) Shroder. His travels and research throughout Afghanistan and his understanding of its place in regional and world history provide the foundation for this comprehensive 572-page reference. The book describes the interrelated nature of Afghanistan’s physical and political landscape over time and the role resources have, and have not, played in Afghanistan’s past and could play in its future. Review info: Natural resources in Afghanistan: Geographic and geologic perspectives on centuries of conflict by John F. Shroder, 2014. ISBN 978-01280013356, 572 pp.

Economic Geology↗

USGS2015

Diel cycling of trace elements in streams draining mineralized areas: a review

Many trace elements exhibit persistent diel, or 24-h, concentration cycles in streams draining mineralized areas. These cycles can be caused by various physical and biogeochemical mechanisms including streamflow variation, photosynthesis and respiration, as well as reactions involving photochemistry, adsorption and desorption, mineral precipitation and dissolution, and plant assimilation. Iron is the primary trace element that exhibits diel cycling in acidic streams. In contrast, many cationic and anionic trace elements exhibit diel cycling in near-neutral and alkaline streams. Maximum reported changes in concentration for these diel cycles have been as much as a factor of 10 (988% change in Zn concentration over a 24-h period). Thus, monitoring and scientific studies must account for diel trace-element cycling to ensure that water-quality data collected in streams appropriately represent the conditions intended to be studied.

Applied Geochemistry↗

USGS2015

Fecal indicator organism modeling and microbial source tracking in environmental waters: Chapter 3.4.6

Mathematical models have been widely applied to surface waters to estimate rates of settling, resuspension, flow, dispersion, and advection in order to calculate movement of particles that influence water quality. Of particular interest are the movement, survival, and persistence of microbial pathogens or their surrogates, which may contaminate recreational water, drinking water, or shellfish. Most models devoted to microbial water quality have been focused on fecal indicator organisms (FIO), which act as a surrogate for pathogens and viruses. Process-based modeling and statistical modeling have been used to track contamination events to source and to predict future events. The use of these two types of models require different levels of expertise and input; process-based models rely on theoretical physical constructs to explain present conditions and biological distribution while data-based, statistical models use extant paired data to do the same. The selection of the appropriate model and interpretation of results is critical to proper use of these tools in microbial source tracking. Integration of the modeling approaches could provide insight for tracking and predicting contamination events in real time. A review of modeling efforts reveals that process-based modeling has great promise for microbial source tracking efforts; further, combining the understanding of physical processes influencing FIO contamination developed with process-based models and molecular characterization of the population by gene-based (i.e., biological) or chemical markers may be an effective approach for locating sources and remediating contamination in order to protect human health better.

Book chapter↗

USGS2008

Scientific results from Gulf of Mexico Gas Hydrates Joint Industry Project Leg 1 drilling: Introduction and overview

The Gulf of Mexico Gas Hydrates Joint Industry Project (JIP) is a consortium of production and service companies and some government agencies formed to address the challenges that gas hydrates pose for deepwater exploration and production. In partnership with the U.S. Department of Energy and with scientific assistance from the U.S. Geological Survey and academic partners, the JIP has focused on studies to assess hazards associated with drilling the fine-grained, hydrate-bearing sediments that dominate much of the shallow subseafloor in the deepwater (>500 m) Gulf of Mexico. In preparation for an initial drilling, logging, and coring program, the JIP sponsored a multi-year research effort that included: (a) the development of borehole stability models for hydrate-bearing sediments; (b) exhaustive laboratory measurements of the physical properties of hydrate-bearing sediments; (c) refinement of new techniques for processing industry-standard 3-D seismic data to constrain gas hydrate saturations; and (d) construction of instrumentation to measure the physical properties of sediment cores that had never been removed from in situ hydrostatic pressure conditions. Following review of potential drilling sites, the JIP launched a 35-day expedition in Spring 2005 to acquire well logs and sediment cores at sites in Atwater Valley lease blocks 13/14 and Keathley Canyon lease block 151 in the northern Gulf of Mexico minibasin province. The Keathley Canyon site has a bottom simulating reflection at ???392 m below the seafloor, while the Atwater Valley location is characterized by seafloor mounds with an underlying upwarped seismic reflection consistent with upward fluid migration and possible shoaling of the base of the gas hydrate stability (BGHS). No gas hydrate was recovered at the drill sites, but logging data, and to some extent cores, suggest the occurrence of gas hydrate in inferred coarser-grained beds and fractures, particularly between 220 and 330 m below the seafloor at the Keathley Canyon site. This paper provides an overview of the results of the initial phases of the JIP work and introduces the 15 papers that make up this special volume on the scientific results related to the 2005 logging and drilling expedition.

Marine and Petroleum Geology↗

USGS2021

Geological constraints on the mechanisms of slow earthquakes

The recognition of slow earthquakes in geodetic and seismological data has transformed the understanding of how plate motions are accommodated at major plate boundaries. Slow earthquakes, which slip more slowly than regular earthquakes but faster than plate motion velocities, occur in a range of tectonic and metamorphic settings. They exhibit spatiotemporal associations with large seismic events that indicate a causal relation between modes of slip at different slip rates. Defining the physical controls on slow earthquakes is, therefore, critical for understanding fault and shear zone mechanics. In this Review, we synthesize geological observations of a suite of ancient structures that were active in tectonic settings comparable to where slow earthquakes are observed today. At inferred slow earthquake regions, a range of grain-scale deformation mechanisms accommodated slip at low effective stresses. Material heterogeneity and the geometric complexity of structures that formed at different inferred strain rates are common to faults and shear zones in multiple tectonic environments, and might represent key limiting factors of slow earthquake slip rates. Further geological work is needed to resolve how the spectrum of slow earthquake slip rates can arise from different grain-scale deformation mechanisms and whether there is one universal rate-limiting mechanism that defines slow earthquake slip.

Nature Reviews Earth and Environment↗

USGS2023

Diverse portfolios: Investing in tributaries for restoration of large river fishes in the Anthropocene

Rehabilitation of large Anthropocene rivers requires engagement of diverse stakeholders across a broad range of sociopolitical boundaries. Competing objectives often constrain options for ecological restoration of large rivers whereas fewer competing objectives may exist in a subset of tributaries. Further, tributaries contribute toward building a “portfolio” of river ecosystem assets through physical and biological processes that may present opportunities to enhance the resilience of large river fishes. Our goal is to review roles of tributaries in enhancing mainstem large river fish populations. We present case histories from two greatly altered and distinct large-river tributary systems that highlight how tributaries contribute four portfolio assets to support large-river fish populations: 1) habitat diversity, 2) connectivity, 3) ecological asynchrony, and 4) density-dependent processes. Finally, we identify future research directions to advance our understanding of tributary roles and inform conservation actions. In the Missouri River United States, we focus on conservation efforts for the state endangered lake sturgeon, which inhabits large rivers and tributaries in the Midwest and Eastern United States. In the Colorado River, Grand Canyon United States, we focus on conservation efforts for recovery of the federally threatened humpback chub. In the Missouri River, habitat diversity focused on physical habitats such as substrate for reproduction, and deep-water habitats for refuge, whereas augmenting habitat diversity for Colorado River fishes focused on managing populations in tributaries with minimally impaired thermal and flow regimes. Connectivity enhancements in the Missouri River focused on increasing habitat accessibility that may require removal of physical structures like low-head dams; whereas in the Colorado River, the lack of connectivity may benefit native fishes as the disconnection provides refuge from non-native fish predation. Hydrologic variability among tributaries was present in both systems, likely underscoring ecological asynchrony. These case studies also described density dependent processes that could influence success of restoration actions. Although actions to restore populations varied by river system, these examples show that these four portfolio assets can help guide restoration activities across a diverse range of mainstem rivers and their tributaries. Using these assets as a guide, we suggest these can be transferable to other large river-tributary systems.

Frontiers in Environmental Science↗

USGS2023

Analysis of high-resolution single channel seismic data for use in sediment resource evaluation, eastern Texas and western Louisiana Continental Shelf, Gulf of Mexico

Shallow subsurface geologic data recorded as high-resolution seismic profiles are used to interpret the geology of coastal and marine systems. These data were originally recorded on paper rolls that are stored in geophysical archives. Data collection has since converted to entirely digital formats, yet the analog data are still useful for geologic interpretation. This report describes the process of recovering analog copies of seismic profiles from physical archives, electronically scanning, and converting them to industry-standard digital format. The recovered data are also reviewed and assessed for potential sediment resources. The data recovered in this study were collected from the Gulf of Mexico continental shelf offshore of East Texas and West Louisiana. The project is a collaborative study between the U.S. Geological Survey and the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management.

Louisiana, Texas↗

USGS2009

Passive seismic monitoring of natural and induced earthquakes: Case studies, future directions and socio-economic relevance

An important discovery in crustal mechanics has been that the Earth’s crust is commonly stressed close to failure, even in tectonically quiet areas. As a result, small natural or man-made perturbations to the local stress field may trigger earthquakes. To understand these processes, Passive Seismic Monitoring (PSM) with seismometer arrays is a widely used technique that has been successfully applied to study seismicity at different magnitude levels ranging from acoustic emissions generated in the laboratory under controlled conditions, to seismicity induced by hydraulic stimulations in geological reservoirs, and up to great earthquakes occurring along plate boundaries. In all these environments the appropriate deployment of seismic sensors, i.e., directly on the rock sample, at the earth’s surface or in boreholes close to the seismic sources allows for the detection and location of brittle failure processes at sufficiently low magnitude-detection threshold and with adequate spatial resolution for further analysis. One principal aim is to develop an improved understanding of the physical processes occurring at the seismic source and their relationship to the host geologic environment. In this paper we review selected case studies and future directions of PSM efforts across a wide range of scales and environments. These include induced failure within small rock samples, hydrocarbon reservoirs, and natural seismicity at convergent and transform plate boundaries. Each example represents a milestone with regard to bridging the gap between laboratory-scale experiments under controlled boundary conditions and large-scale field studies. The common motivation for all studies is to refine the understanding of how earthquakes nucleate, how they proceed and how they interact in space and time. This is of special relevance at the larger end of the magnitude scale, i.e., for large devastating earthquakes due to their severe socio-economic impact.

Book chapter↗