Search USGS⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search USGS

Results for “Nature Geoscience”

Search indexed USGS publications on groundwater, aquifers, geologic maps, mineral resources and earthquakes. Explore source records by subject and place.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 109 records · Page 6Linked to original sources
USGS2021

Half of global methane emissions come from highly variable aquatic ecosystem sources

Atmospheric methane is a potent greenhouse gas that plays a major role in controlling the Earth’s climate. The causes of the renewed increase of methane concentration since 2007 are uncertain given the multiple sources and complex biogeochemistry. Here, we present a metadata analysis of methane fluxes from all major natural, impacted and human-made aquatic ecosystems. Our revised bottom-up global aquatic methane emissions combine diffusive, ebullitive and/or plant-mediated fluxes from 15 aquatic ecosystems. We emphasize the high variability of methane fluxes within and between aquatic ecosystems and a positively skewed distribution of empirical data, making global estimates sensitive to statistical assumptions and sampling design. We find aquatic ecosystems contribute (median) 41% or (mean) 53% of total global methane emissions from anthropogenic and natural sources. We show that methane emissions increase from natural to impacted aquatic ecosystems and from coastal to freshwater ecosystems. We argue that aquatic emissions will probably increase due to urbanization, eutrophication and positive climate feedbacks and suggest changes in land-use management as potential mitigation strategies to reduce aquatic methane emissions.

Nature Geoscience↗
USGS2021

Spatiotemporal clustering of great earthquakes on a transform fault controlled by geometry

Minor changes in geometry along the length of mature strike-slip faults may act as conditional barriers to earthquake rupture, terminating some and allowing others to pass. This hypothesis remains largely untested because palaeoearthquake data that constrain spatial and temporal patterns of fault rupture are generally imprecise. Here we develop palaeoearthquake event data that encompass the last 20 major-to-great earthquakes along approximately 320 km of the Alpine Fault in New Zealand with sufficient temporal resolution and spatial coverage to reveal along-strike patterns of rupture extent. The palaeoearthquake record shows that earthquake terminations tend to cluster in time near minor along-strike changes in geometry. These terminations limit the length to which rupture can grow and produce two modes of earthquake behaviour characterized by phases of major ( M w 7–8) and great ( M w > 8) earthquakes. Physics-based simulations of seismic cycles closely resemble our observations when parameterized with realistic fault geometry. Switching between the rupture modes emerges due to heterogeneous stress states that evolve over multiple seismic cycles in response to along-strike differences in geometry. These geometric complexities exert a first-order control on rupture behaviour that is not currently accounted for in fault-source models for seismic hazard.

South Island↗
USGS2021

Correlation of porosity variations and rheological transitions on the southern Cascadia megathrust

The unknown onshore extent of megathrust earthquake rupture in the Cascadia subduction zone represents a key uncertainty in earthquake hazard for the Pacific Northwest that is governed by the physical state and mechanical properties of the plate interface. The Cascadia plate interface is segmented into an interseismically locked zone located primarily offshore that is expected to rupture in large earthquakes, a region of aseismic slow slip at greater depth, and an intervening transition zone of uncertain rupture potential. Here we image the evolution of the ratio of seismic compressional to shear wave velocities from the locked zone to the transition zone, which is related to changes in fluid content of the plate boundary zone, using a dense onshore–offshore seismic dataset from southernmost Cascadia. The locked zone shows evidence of high fluid content implying a high porosity, yet the downdip transition zone shows an order of magnitude lower porosity. This strong variation is consistent with models that contain a ductile region between the earthquake rupture and slow slip zones that would inhibit onshore propagation of future large earthquake ruptures and hence reduce seismic hazard.

California↗
USGS2021

Arctic Ocean stratification set by sea level and freshwater inputs since the last ice age

Salinity-driven density stratification of the upper Arctic Ocean isolates sea-ice cover and cold, nutrient-poor surface waters from underlying warmer, nutrient-rich waters. Recently, stratification has strengthened in the western Arctic but has weakened in the eastern Arctic; it is unknown if these trends will continue. Here we present foraminifera-bound nitrogen isotopes from Arctic Ocean sediments since 35,000 years ago to reconstruct past changes in nutrient sources and the degree of nutrient consumption in surface waters, the latter reflecting stratification. During the last ice age and early deglaciation, the Arctic was dominated by Atlantic-sourced nitrate and incomplete nitrate consumption, indicating weaker stratification. Starting at 11,000 years ago in the western Arctic, there is a clear isotopic signal of Pacific-sourced nitrate and complete nitrate consumption associated with the flooding of the Bering Strait. These changes reveal that the strong stratification of the western Arctic relies on low-salinity inflow through the Bering Strait. In the central Arctic, nitrate consumption was complete during the early Holocene, then declined after 5,000 years ago as summer insolation decreased. This sequence suggests that precipitation and riverine freshwater fluxes control the stratification of the central Arctic Ocean. Based on these findings, ongoing warming will cause strong stratification to expand into the central Arctic, slowing the nutrient supply to surface waters and thus limiting future phytoplankton productivity.

Nature Geoscience↗
USGS2021

Past abrupt changes, tipping points and cascading impacts in the Earth system

The geological record shows that abrupt changes in the Earth system can occur on timescales short enough to challenge the capacity of human societies to adapt to environmental pressures. In many cases, abrupt changes arise from slow changes in one component of the Earth system that eventually pass a critical threshold, or tipping point, after which impacts cascade through coupled climate–ecological–social systems. The chance of detecting abrupt changes and tipping points increases with the length of observations. The geological record provides the only long-term information we have on the conditions and processes that can drive physical, ecological and social systems into new states or organizational structures that may be irreversible within human time frames. Here, we use well-documented abrupt changes of the past 30 kyr to illustrate how their impacts cascade through the Earth system. We review useful indicators of upcoming abrupt changes, or early warning signals, and provide a perspective on the contributions of palaeoclimate science to the understanding of abrupt changes in the Earth system.

Nature Geoscience↗
USGS2022

Atlantic circulation change still uncertain

Deep oceanic overturning circulation in the Atlantic (Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC)) is projected to decrease in the future in response to anthropogenic warming. Caesar et al. 1 argue that an AMOC slowdown started in the nineteenth century and intensified during the mid-twentieth century. Although the argument and selected evidence proposed have some merits, we find that their conclusions might be different if a more complete array of data available in the North Atlantic region is considered. We argue that the strength of AMOC over recent centuries is still poorly constrained and the expected slowdown may not have started yet. Recently, Moffa-Sánchez et al. 2 compiled a comprehensive set of palaeoclimate proxy data from the North Atlantic and Arctic regions using objective criteria to identify high-quality datasets of ocean conditions that span the past two millennia (Fig. 1). Although no direct (singular) proxy for AMOC exists, the palaeoceanographic proxy data compiled by Moffa-Sánchez et al. 2 highlight the spatial and temporal complexities of the ocean state in modern times and the recent past. When all the available proxy records potentially related to AMOC variability and twentieth century observational datasets are considered, the time history of the AMOC system becomes less certain. In contrast, selecting only a subset of proxy records that share similar trends, as performed by Caesar et al. 1 , provides an incomplete perspective on AMOC changes through time.

Atlantic Ocean↗
USGS2022

Global cycling and climate effects of aeolian dust controlled by biological soil crusts

Biological soil crusts (biocrusts) cover ~12% of the global land surface. They are formed by an intimate association between soil particles, photoautotrophic and heterotrophic organisms, and they effectively stabilize the soil surface of drylands. Quantitative information on the impact of biocrusts on the global cycling and climate effects of aeolian dust, however, is not available. Here, we combine the currently limited experimental data with a global climate model to investigate the effects of biocrusts on regional and global dust cycling under current and future conditions. We estimate that biocrusts reduce the global atmospheric dust emissions by ~60%, preventing the release of ~0.7 Pg dust per year. Until 2070, biocrust coverage is expected to be severely reduced by climate change and land-use intensification. The biocrust loss will cause an increased dust burden, leading to a reduction of the global radiation budget of around 0.12 to 0.22 W m−2, corresponding to about 50% of the total direct forcing of anthropogenic aerosols. This biocrust control on dust cycling and its climate impacts have important implications for human health, biogeochemical cycling and the functioning of the ecosystems, and thus should be considered in the modelling, mitigation and management of global change.

Nature Geoscience↗
USGS2022

Fluid transport and storage in the Cascadia forearc influenced by overriding plate lithology

Subduction of hydrated oceanic lithosphere can carry water deep into the Earth, with consequences for a range of tectonic and magmatic processes. Most of the fluid is released in the forearc where it plays a critical role in controlling the mechanical properties and seismic behaviour of the subduction megathrust. Here we present results from three-dimensional inversions of data from nearly 400 long-period magnetotelluric sites, including 64 offshore, to provide insights into the distribution of fluids in the forearc of the Cascadia subduction zone. We constrain the geometry of the electrically resistive Siletz terrane, a thickened section of oceanic crust accreted to North America in the Eocene, and the conductive accretionary complex underthrust along the margin. We find that fluids accumulate over timescales exceeding 1 My above the plate in metasedimentary units, while the mafic rocks of Siletzia remain dry. Fluid concentrations tend to peak at slab depths of 17.5 and 30 km, suggesting control by metamorphic processes, but also concentrate around the edges of Siletzia, suggesting that this mafic block is impermeable, with dehydration fluids escaping up-dip along the megathrust. Our results demonstrate that the lithology of the overriding crust can play a critical role in controlling fluid transport in a subduction zone.

British Columbia, California, Oregon, Washington↗
USGS2022

Negligible atmospheric release of methane from decomposing hydrates in mid-latitude oceans

Naturally occurring gas hydrates may contribute to a positive feedback for global warming because they sequester large amounts of the potent greenhouse gas methane in ice-like deposits that could be destabilized by increasing ocean/atmospheric temperatures. Most hydrates occur within marine sediments; gas liberated during the decomposition of seafloor hydrates or originating with other methane pools can feed methane emissions at cold seeps. Regardless of the origin of seep methane, all previous measurements of methane emitted from seeps have shown it to have a unique fossil radiocarbon signature, contrasting with other sources of marine methane. Here we present the concentration and natural radiocarbon content of methane dissolved in the water column from the seafloor to the sea surface at seep fields along the US Atlantic and Pacific margins. For shallower water columns, where the seafloor is not within the hydrate stability zone, we do document seep CH 4 in some surface-water samples. However, measurements in deeper water columns along the US Atlantic margin reveal no evidence of seep CH 4 reaching surface waters when the water-column depth is greater than 430 ± 90 m. Gas hydrates exist only at water depths greater than ~550 m in this region, suggesting that the source of methane escaping to the atmosphere is not from hydrate decomposition.

North Carolina, Oregon, Virginia, Washington↗
USGS2023

Earth science looks to outer space

Satellite data are revolutionizing coastal science. A study revealing how the El Niño/Southern Oscillation impacts coastal erosion around the Pacific Rim shows what is possible.

Nature Geoscience↗
USGS2023

A seasonally ice-free Arctic Ocean during the Last Interglacial

The extent and seasonality of Arctic sea ice during the Last Interglacial (129,000 to 115,000 years before present) is poorly known. Sediment-based reconstructions have suggested extensive ice cover in summer, while climate model outputs indicate year-round conditions in the Arctic Ocean ranging from ice free to fully ice covered. Here we use microfossil records from across the central Arctic Ocean to show that sea-ice extent was substantially reduced and summers were probably ice free. The evidence comes from high abundances of the subpolar planktic foraminifera Turborotalita quinqueloba in five newly analysed cores. The northern occurrence of this species is incompatible with perennial sea ice, which would be associated with a thick, low-salinity surface water. Instead , T. quinqueloba ’s ecological preference implies largely ice-free surface waters with seasonally elevated levels of primary productivity. In the modern ocean, this species thrives in the Fram Strait–Barents Sea ‘Arctic–Atlantic gateway’ region, implying that the necessary Atlantic Ocean-sourced water masses shoaled towards the surface during the Last Interglacial. This process reflects the ongoing Atlantification of the Arctic Ocean, currently restricted to the Eurasian Basin. Our results establish the Last Interglacial as a prime analogue for studying a seasonally ice-free Arctic Ocean, expected to occur this century.

Nature Geoscience↗
USGS2023

Long-term trends in Arctic riverine chemistry signal multi-faceted northern change

Rivers integrate processes occurring throughout their watersheds and are therefore sentinels of change across broad spatial scales. River chemistry also regulates ecosystem function across Earth’s land–ocean continuum, exerting control from the micro- (for example, local food web) to the macro- (for example, global carbon cycle) scale. In the rapidly warming Arctic, a wide range of processes—from permafrost thaw to biological uptake and transformation—might reasonably alter river water chemistry. Here we use data from major rivers that collectively drain two-thirds of the Arctic Ocean watershed to assess widespread change in biogeochemical function within the pan-Arctic basin from 2003 to 2019. While the oceanward flux of alkalinity and associated ions increased markedly over this time frame, nitrate and other inorganic nutrient fluxes declined. Fluxes of dissolved organic carbon showed no overall trend. This divergence in response indicates the perturbation of multiple processes on land, with implications for biogeochemical cycling in the coastal ocean. We anticipate that these findings will facilitate refinement of conceptual and numerical models of current and future functioning of Arctic coastal ecosystems and spur research on scale-dependent change across the river-integrated Arctic domain.

Arctic↗
USGS2024

Stress-driven recurrence and precursory moment-rate surge in caldera collapse earthquakes

Predicting the recurrence times of earthquakes and understanding the physical processes that immediately precede them are two outstanding problems in seismology. Although geodetic measurements record elastic strain accumulation, most faults have recurrence intervals longer than available measurements. Foreshocks provide the principal observations of processes before mainshocks, but variability between sequences limits generalizations of pre-failure behaviour. Here we analyse seismicity and deformation data for highly characteristic caldera collapse earthquakes from 2018 Kīlauea Volcano (Hawaii, USA), with a mean recurrence interval of 1.4 days. These events provide a unique test of stress-induced earthquake recurrence and document processes preceding mainshocks with magnitude greater than five. We show that recurrence intervals are well predicted by stress histories inferred from near-field deformation measurements and that cycle-averaged seismicity reveals a critical phase, minutes before mainshocks, where earthquakes grew larger and seismic moment rate surged dramatically. The average moment rate in the final 15 minutes (0.7% of the mean cycle duration) was 4.75 times the background, a highly significant change. We infer that as the average stress increased, ruptures were more likely to overcome geometric barriers and grow larger, leading to characteristic, whole-fault ruptures. These findings imply that stress heterogeneity influences both earthquake nucleation and growth, including on potentially hazardous tectonic faults.

Nature Geoscience↗
USGS2024

Explosive 2018 eruptions at Kīlauea driven by a collapse-induced stomp-rocket mechanism

Explosive volcanic eruptions produce hazardous atmospheric plumes composed of tephra particles, hot gas and entrained air. Such eruptions are generally driven by magmatic fragmentation or steam expansion. However, an eruption mechanism outside this phreatic–magmatic spectrum was suggested by a sequence of 12 explosive eruptions in May 2018 at Kīlauea, Hawaii, that occurred during the early stages of caldera collapse and produced atmospheric plumes reaching 8 km above the vent. Here we use seismic inversions for reservoir pressure as a source condition for three-dimensional simulations of transient multiphase eruptive plume ascent through a conduit and stratified atmosphere. We compare the simulations with conduit ascent times inferred from seismic and infrasound data, and with plume heights from radar data. We find that the plumes are consistent with eruptions caused by a stomp-rocket mechanism involving the abrupt subsidence of reservoir roof rock that increased pressure in the underlying magma reservoir. In our model, the reservoir was overlain by a pocket of accumulated high-temperature magmatic gas and lithic debris, which were driven through a conduit approximately 600 m long to erupt particles at rates of around 3,000 m 3 s −1 . Our results reveal a distinct collapse-driven type of eruption and provide a framework for integrating diverse geophysical and atmospheric data with simulations to gain a better understanding of unsteady explosive eruptions.

Hawaii↗
USGS2024

Isotopic evidence against North Pacific Deep Water formation during late Pliocene warmth

Several modelling and observational studies suggest deep water formation in the subpolar North Pacific as a possible alternative mode of thermohaline circulation that occurred in the warm Pliocene, a time when global atmospheric partial pressure of carbon dioxide was like the modern atmosphere (~400 ppm). We test this hypothesis by measuring the δ 13 C of the benthic foraminifer Cibicidoides wuellerstorfi collected from northernmost Pacific mid-Piacenzian Warm Period (3.264–3.025 Myr ago) sediments. The data reveal progressively more isotopically negative dissolved inorganic carbon along a northward Equator-to-pole transect, the opposite of the expected Pliocene Pacific meridional overturning circulation signal. C. wuellerstorfi δ 13 C is also often more positive at the deeper Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) site 887 compared with the shallower ODP site 883, suggesting ‘bottom-up’ ventilation of the deep Pacific Ocean. We then present alkenone sea surface temperature and export-productivity data from ODP site 883, which suggest that late Pliocene subarctic North Pacific carbonate sedimentation was, at least in part, probably due to higher coccolithophore export production, rather than North Pacific Deep Water formation as previously argued. Therefore, we suggest it is unlikely that North Pacific Deep Water formation occurred in the mid-Piacenzian Warm Period, although a shallower overturning cell cannot be ruled out.

Nature Geoscience↗
USGS2025

Long-lived partial melt beneath Cascade volcanoes

Quantitative estimates of magma storage are fundamental to evaluating volcanic dynamics and hazards. Yet our understanding of subvolcanic magmatic plumbing systems and their variability remains limited. There is ongoing debate regarding the ephemerality of shallow magma storage and its volume relative to eruptive output, and so whether an upper-crustal magma body could be a sign of imminent eruption. Here we present seismic imaging of subvolcanic magmatic systems along the Cascade Range arc from systematically modelling the three-dimensional scattered wavefield of teleseismic body waves. This reveals compelling evidence of low-seismic-velocity bodies indicative of partial melt between 5 and 15 km depth beneath most Cascade Range volcanoes. The magma reservoirs beneath these volcanoes vary in depth, size and complexity, but upper-crustal magma bodies are widespread, irrespective of the eruptive flux or time since the last eruption of the associated volcano. This indicates that large volumes of melts can persist at shallow depth throughout eruption cycles beneath large volcanoes.

California, Oregon, Washington↗
USGS2025

Lessons from 40 years of communicating volcanic risk during crises

Since the 1985 Nevado del Ruiz eruption that killed over 23,000 people in Armero, Colombia, risk communication has become central to volcanic crisis management. Despite the development of effective tools and programmes for volcanic risk communication, considerable challenges remain.

Nature Geoscience↗