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Basin-scale simulation of current and potential climate changed hydrologic conditions in the Lake Michigan Basin, United States

The Great Lakes Restoration Initiative (GLRI) is the largest public investment in the Great Lakes in two decades. A task force of 11 Federal agencies developed an action plan to implement the initiative. The U.S. Department of the Interior was one of the 11 agencies that entered into an interagency agreement with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency as part of the GLRI to complete scientific projects throughout the Great Lakes basin. The U.S. Geological Survey, a bureau within the Department of the Interior, is involved in the GLRI to provide scientific support to management decisions as well as measure progress of the Great Lakes basin restoration efforts. This report presents basin-scale simulated current and forecast climatic and hydrologic conditions in the Lake Michigan Basin. The forecasts were obtained by constructing and calibrating a Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) model of the Lake Michigan Basin; the PRMS model was calibrated using the parameter estimation and uncertainty analysis (PEST) software suite. The calibrated model was used to evaluate potential responses to climate change by using four simulated carbon emission scenarios from eight general circulation models released by the World Climate Research Programme’s Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3. Statistically downscaled datasets of these scenarios were used to project hydrologic response for the Lake Michigan Basin. In general, most of the observation sites in the Lake Michigan Basin indicated slight increases in annual streamflow in response to future climate change scenarios. Monthly streamflows indicated a general shift from the current (2014) winter-storage/snowmelt-pulse system to a system with a more equally distributed hydrograph throughout the year. Simulated soil moisture within the basin illustrates that conditions within the basin are also expected to change on a monthly timescale. One effect of increasing air temperature as a result of the changing climate was the appreciable increase in the length of the growing season in the Lake Michigan Basin. The increase in growing season will cause an increase in evapotranspiration across the Lake Michigan Basin, which will directly affect soil moisture and late growing season streamflows. Output from the Lake Michigan Basin PRMS model is available through an online dynamic web mapping service available at (http://pubs.usgs.gov/sir/2014/5175/). The map service includes layers for the each of the 8 global climate models and 4 carbon emission scenarios combinations for 12 hydrologic model state variables. The layers are pre-rendered maps of annual hydrologic response from 1977 through 2099 that provide an easily accessible online method to examine climate change effects across the Lake Michigan Basin.

Indiana, Illinois, Michigan, Wisconsin↗

Water levels and ground-water discharge, regional aquifer system of the midwestern Basins and Arches Region, in parts of Indiana, Ohio, Illinois, and Michigan

Aquifers in Quaternary glacial deposits and the underlying Silurian and Devonian carbonate bedrock in parts of Indiana, Ohio, Illinois, and Michigan compose the regional aquifer system under investigation as part of the Midwestern Basins and Arches Regional Aquifer System Analysis (Midwestern Basins and Arches—RASA) project of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). The Midwestern Basins and Arches—RASA is part of a USGS program to assess the regional hydrology, geology, and water quality of the Nation's most important aquifers (Sun, 1986). An objective specific to the Midwestern Basins and Arches—RASA project is to conceptualize and describe regional ground-water flow in the glacial-deposit and carbonate-bedrock aquifer system, including regional recharge and discharge areas and regional relations between surface and ground water (Bugliosi, 1990). Water-level and ground-water discharge data were collected and (or) analyzed to help meet the above objective. Specifically, data from the USGS Ground-Water Site Inventory (GWSI) data base were used to determine relations between land-surface altitude and water levels in glacial-deposit aquifers. Water levels in the carbonate-bedrock aquifer were synoptically measured during July 1990, and the data were used to construct a potentiometric surface map of the aquifer. Regional hydraulic gradients and general directions of regional flow in the carbonate-bedrock aquifer can be inferred from this map. Steady-state groundwater discharge to streams that drain the area underlain by the glacial-deposit and carbonate bedrock aquifer system was estimated from base-flow daily values computed from streamflow records. Water-level and ground-water-discharge data collectively form the sample information necessary to develop calibration targets for calibration of a ground-water-flow model (Anderson and Woessner, 1992). Such a ground-water-flow model of the glacial-deposit and carbonate-bedrock aquifer system was constructed to help conceptualize and describe regional ground-water flow in the aquifer system. The model was calibrated to the water-level and ground-water-discharge data presented in this atlas.

Hydrologic Atlas↗

Estimated water withdrawals, water use, and water consumption in Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kentucky, Michigan, Missouri, and Wisconsin, 1950-95

From 1950 through 1995, the U.S. Geological Survey tabulated water withdrawals throughout the United States, including the northcentral States of Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kentucky, Michigan, Missouri, and Wisconsin. During this period, total water withdrawals increased in each of the north-central States by at least a factor of two. Illinois led the north-central States in total withdrawals, withdrawals from surface water and, typically, withdrawals from ground water. Per capita withdrawals were largest in Indiana or Illinois, however, the disparity in per capita withdrawals in the north-central States decreased from 1950 through 1995. Surface water was the source of 75 to 95 percent of all water withdrawals in the north-central States and consistently accounted for over 90 percent of total withdrawals in Illinois. From 1950 through 1995, the magnitude of increase in withdrawals from surface water was lower in Illinois than in most of the other north-central States, even though surface-water withdrawals in Illinois increased from about 9,000 to 19,000 million gallons per day. Total water withdrawals from ground water in Illinois have decreased by about 150 million gallons per day since 1975. From 1950 through 1995, from 68 to 86 percent of the total water withdrawals in Illinois were for generation of thermoelectric power; this percentage is higher than for the other north-central States and has increased since 1970. Approximately 12 percent of water withdrawals in Illinois are for municipal water supply, which was consistent with the other north-central States. Ten percent or less of the water withdrawn in the north-central States is estimated to have been consumed.

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

Visualizing the geology of lake trout spawning sites: Northern Lake Michigan

Geologists and biologists are working together to understand the links between lake floor geology (composition and shape) and the distribution of lake trout throughout their life cycle. Lake floor geology is one of the main factors determining where lake trout spawn, feed, and hide. In support of ongoing research to study Lake Michigan trout habitats, the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers mapped the morphology of principle lake trout spawning sites. Using the Army Corps of Engineer's SHOALS airborne lidar (Light Detection and Ranging) system we mapped six regions in Northern Lake Michigan in order to identify ideal spawning regions composed of shallow, clean, gravel/cobble substrate, adjacent to deeper water. Lidar mapping systems, which use laser pulses to measure water depths from an airplane, are now available to map the nearshore lake morphology at meter-scale detail. Maps generated from the bathymetric data are used to define regions with smooth homogeneous substrate, regions with higher relief, and mixed regions with both smooth and rough relief. This morphologic information combined with sediment samples and direct bottom observations enable geologists to map areas with rougher relief composed of rock outcrop, boulders, and cobbles, as well as smooth regions covered with sand or mud. This information helps biologists, fishery managers, and ecologists visualize the lake floor in significant detail which promotes better fishery management, species protection, and habitat identification. These maps present the maps and discuss the geology of the six lake trout spawning sites mapped by the lidar system. Where the mapping approached land, aerial photography of the land is combined with the bathymetric data to help visualize the scale of the offshore features. Map and perspective views of Boulder Reef, Hog Island Reef, and Little Traverse Bay are shown on sheet 1, whereas map and perspective views of Trout and High Island Shoal, Gull Island Reef, and Dahlia Shoal are shown on sheet 2. Additional information, bathymetric data, imagery, and metadata are available online at http://geopubs.wr.usgs.gov/open-file/of03-120/.

Michigan, Wisconsin↗

Peak streamflow trends in Montana and northern Wyoming and their relation to changes in climate, water years 1921–2020

Frequency analysis on annual peak streamflow (hereinafter, peak flow) is essential to water-resources management applications, including critical structure design (for example, bridges and culverts) and floodplain mapping. Nonstationarity is a statistical property of a peak-flow series such that the distributional properties (the mean, variance, or skew) change either gradually (monotonic trend) or abruptly (shift, step change or change point) through time. Not incorporating or accounting for observed nonstationarity into peak-flow frequency analysis might result in a poor representation of the true probability of large floods and thus misrepresent the actual flood risks to life and property. This report summarizes how hydroclimatic variability might affect the temporal and spatial distributions of peak-flow data in the State of Montana (and northern Wyoming) and is part of a larger study to document peak-flow nonstationarity and hydroclimatic changes across a nine-State region consisting of Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Wisconsin. A wide range of analyses and statistical approaches are applied to document the primary mechanisms controlling floods and characterize temporal changes in hydroclimatic variables and peak flows. This study was completed in cooperation with the Montana Department of Natural Resources and Conservation. The purpose of this report is to characterize temporal and spatial patterns of nonstationarity in peak flows and hydroclimatology in Montana and northern Wyoming. In this evaluation, peak-flow, daily streamflow, and model-simulated gridded climatic data were examined for monotonic trends, change points, and other statistical properties that might indicate changing climatic and environmental conditions. This report includes background information on the study area, the history of U.S. Geological Survey peak-flow data collection and frequency analysis in Montana, and the review of research relating to hydroclimatic variability and change in Montana. This study might help provide a framework for addressing potential nonstationarity issues in peak-flow frequency updates that commonly are completed by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with other agencies throughout the Nation. The analytical structure of this study includes analyses of monotonic trends and change points in numerous hydroclimatic variables in assigned 30-, 50-, 75-, and 100-year analysis periods. For Montana and part of Wyoming, the 30-, 50-, 75, and 100-year analyses included 157, 70, 48, and 12 streamgages, respectively. For those streamgages, nonstationarities were analyzed in the following variables: (1) climatic variables, including annual and seasonal (winter, spring, summer, and fall) temperature and precipitation; (2) daily streamflow variables, including the annual center of volume duration, annual center of volume median, and peaks over threshold with a mean of four events per year; and (3) annual peak-flow variables, including peak-flow timing and magnitude. A likelihood approach was used to express statistical confidence and assign the nonstationarity results as likely upward or downward (highest statistical confidence), somewhat likely upward or downward (less statistical confidence), or about as likely as not (little statistical confidence; hereinafter, neutral). For the nonstationarity analyses of the climatic, daily streamflow, and peak-flow variables, the results are presented in detail and discussed with respect to statewide patterns and geographic variability. For each of the 30-, 50-, and 75-year analyses, peak-flow change-point and monotonic trend analyses were compiled for streamgages classified with likely downward or likely upward trends. For those streamgages, the associated basin characteristics and nonstationarity results for peak-flow timing, daily streamflow, and climatic variables were investigated and statistically compared to discern associations among other variables that might contribute to the peak-flow nonstationarity results. The 50- and 75-year peak-flow nonstationarities identified in this study are mostly downward, in association with mostly upward temperature and potential evapotranspiration:precipitation monotonic trends. For the 50-, 75-, and 100-year analyses, the peak-flow change points are predominantly downward and are concentrated in the 1970s and 1980s, which indicates general consistency among the longer trend periods. These findings are in association with substantial research documenting globally rising temperature and atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations that might be largely attributed to anthropogenic activities. Anthropogenic effects might represent long-term (on the order of several decades to more than a century) climate changes that might happen within highly variable natural climate fluctuations. Several paleo studies in the north-central United States have indicated that hydroclimatic extremes (that is, low- and high-streamflow conditions) before European settlement have been outside of extremes since the 1900s. Depending on the interactions of anthropogenic effects and natural climate variability, extreme high-streamflow conditions might occur in the future, even in the presence of long-term downward peak-flow trends.

Montana, Wyoming↗

Simulation of ground-water flow and areas contributing ground water to production wells, Cadillac, Michigan

Ground water is the primary source of water for domestic, municipal, and industrial use within the northwest section of Michigan's Lower Peninsula. Because of the importance of this resource, numerous communities including the city of Cadillac in Wexford County, Michigan, have begun local wellhead protection programs. In these programs, communities protect their ground-water resources by identifying the areas that contribute water to production wells, identifying potential sources of contamination, and developing methods to cooperatively manage and minimize threats to the water supply. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the city of Cadillac, simulated regional ground-water flow and estimated areas contributing recharge and zones of transport to the production well field. Ground-water flow models for the Clam River watershed, in Wexford and Missaukee Counties, were developed using the U.S. Geological Survey modular three-dimensional finite-difference ground-water flow model (MODFLOW 2000). Ground-water flow models were calibrated using the observation, sensitivity, and parameter estimation packages of MODFLOW 2000. Ground-water-head solutions from calibrated flow models were used in conjunction with MODPATH, a particle-tracking program, to simulate regional ground-water flow and estimate areas contributing recharge and zones of transport to the Cadillac production-well field for a 10-year period. Model simulations match the conceptual model in that regional ground-water flow in the deep ground-water system is from southeast to northwest across the watershed. Areas contributing water were determined for the optimized parameter set and an alternate parameter set that included increased recharge and hydraulic conductivity values. Although substantially different hydrologic parameters (assumed to represent end-member ranges of realistic hydrologic parameters) were used in alternate numerical simulations, simulation results differ little in predictions of the size of the contributing area to the city well field. However, increasing recharge and hydraulic conductivity values appreciably affected the shape of the contributing area and zone of contribution of reacharge. Simulation results indicate that the region immediately to the south and southeast of the well field is contributing water to the production wells. Detailed aquifer characterization would be needed to describe and simulate the heterogeneous glacial deposits in the watershed.

Michigan↗

Understanding sources and distribution of Escherichia coli at Lake St. Clair Metropark Beach, Macomb County, Michigan

Lake St. Clair Metropark Beach (LSCMB) in Michigan is a public beach near the mouth of the Clinton River that has a history of beach closures for public health concerns. The Clinton River is designated as a Great Lakes Area of Concern, and the park has a Beneficial Use Impairment for beach closings because of elevated Escherichia coli ( E. coli ) concentrations. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and in collaboration with the Michigan Department of the Environment, Great Lakes, and Energy, Macomb County Health Department, and Huron-Clinton Metroparks, completed a 2-year study to determine sources of E. coli in LSCMB. Samples were collected during dry and wet weather periods to observe the sampling sites under different conditions. Nearshore surface water samples were collected biweekly July through October in 2018 and May through September in 2019. There were 20 sampling sites along the shoreline of the park and in the channel north of the park. In addition to collecting nearshore surface-water samples, samples were collected from shallow groundwater, lake-bottom material, standing water on the beach and surrounding the recreational beach area, solids (beach sands and detritus), and offshore surface-water sites. In 2019, additional samples for microbial source tracking (MST) were collected on three dates in midsummer and were analyzed for human (HF183) and bird/waterfowl (GFD) MST markers. The concentrations of E. coli at LSCMB (in order of highest to lowest E. coli concentrations) were as follows: shallow groundwater nearest to the water’s edge, surface sands and organic matter (detritus), standing water on the beach, nearshore surface water in and surrounding the recreational beach area, lake-bottom material, and offshore surface water. The combination of low E. coli concentrations offshore and higher concentrations nearshore indicate nearshore sources, possibly from beach sands or groundwater, rather than sources coming from offshore Lake St. Clair waters. The subset of samples for MST analysis did not have enough positive results to illustrate MST trends, but this study demonstrated that both human and waterfowl sources can affect the water quality at LCSMB.

Michigan↗

Geohydrology and contamination at the Michigan Department of Transportation maintenance garage area, Kalamazoo County, Michigan

A leaking underground storage tank was removed from the Michigan Department of Transportation maintenance garage area in Kalamazoo County., Mich., in 1985. The tank had been leaking unleaded gasoline. Although a remediation system was operational at the site for several years after the tank was removed, ground-water samples collected from monitoring wells in the area consistently showed high concentrations of benzene, toluene. ethylbenzene, and xylenes--indicators of the presence of gasoline. The U.S. Geological Survey did a study in cooperation with the Michigan Department of Transportation, to define the geology, hydrology, and occurrence of gasoline contamination in the maintenance garage area. The aquifer affected by gasoline contamination is an unconfined glaci'a.l sand and gravel aquifer. The average depth to water in the study area is about 74.7 feet. Water-level fluctuations are small; maximum fluctuation was slightly more than 1 foot during August 1993-August 1994. Hydraulic conductivities based on aquifer-test data collected for the study and estimated by use of the Cooper-Jacob method of solution ranged from 130 to 144 feet per day. Ground water is moving in an east-southeasterly direction at a rate of about I foot per day. Leakage from perforated pipes leading from the underground storage tanks to the pump station was identified as a second source of gasoline contamination to saturated and unsaturated zones. The existence of this previously unknown second source is part of the reason that previous remediation efforts were ineffective. Residual contaminants in the unsaturated zone are expected to continue to move to the water table with recharge, except in a small area covered by asphalt at the land surface. The gasoline plume from the perforated pipe source has merged with that from the leaking underground storage tank, and the combined plume in the saturated zone is estimated to cover an area of 30,000 square feet. The combined plume is in the upper 20 feet of the saturated zone. The relative distribution of benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene, and xylenes indicate that factors such as sorption, solubility, and susceptibility to microbial degradation are affecting the movement of the combined plume. Given these factors, the plume is expected to move at a rate of less than 1 foot per day.

Michigan↗

Ground-water/surface-water relations along Honey Creek, Washtenaw County, Michigan, 2003

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the city of Ann Arbor, Mich., investigated the ground-water/ surface-water relations along the lower reaches of Honey Creek, Washtenaw County, Mich., and an unnamed tributary to Honey Creek (the discharge tributary) from June through October 2003. Streamflow in these reaches was artificially high during a naturally low-flow period due to an anthropogenic discharge. Ground-water/surface-water relations were examined by seepage runs (series of streamflow measurements for the computation of streams gains or losses) and measurements of the difference in head between the stream surface and shallow aquifer. Specific conductance and water-temperature measurements were used as ancillary data to help identify gaining and losing reaches. Three seepage runs and four runs in which hydraulic-head differences between the stream and shallow aquifer were measured (piezometer runs) were made during periods of base flow. Streamflow measurements were made at 18 sites for the seepage runs. Instream piezometers were installed at 16 sites and bank piezometers were installed at 2 sites. Two deeper instream piezometers were installed at site 13 on September 4, 2003 to collect additional data on the ground-water/surface-water relations at that site. The seepage runs indicate that the main stem of Honey Creek and the discharge tributary in the study area are overall gaining reaches. The seepage runs also indicate that smaller reaches of Honey Creek and the discharge tributary may be losing reaches and that this relation may change over time with changing hydraulic conditions. The piezometer-run measurements support the seepage-run results on the main stem, whereas piezometer-run measurements both support and conflict with seepage-run measurements on the discharge tributary. Seepage runs give an average for the reach, whereas piezometer head-difference measurements are for a specific area around the piezometer. Data that may appear to be conflicting actually may be showing that within a gaining reach there are localized areas that lose streamflow. The overall gain in streamflow along with specific measurements of head differences, specific conductance, and water temperature indicate that ground water is discharging to Honey Creek and the discharge tributary. Although reaches and areas that lose streamflow have been identified, data collected during this study cannot confirm or disprove that the loss is to the regional ground-water system.

Michigan↗

Historical Changes in Precipitation and Streamflow in the U.S. Great Lakes Basin, 1915-2004

The total amount of water in the Great Lakes Basin is important in the long-term allocation of water to human use and to riparian and aquatic ecosystems. The water available during low-flow periods is particularly important because the short-term demands for the water can exceed the supply. Precipitation increased over the last 90 years in the U.S. Great Lakes Basin. Total annual precipitation increased by 4.5 inches from 1915 to 2004 (based on the average of 34 U.S. Historical Climatology Network stations), 3.5 inches from 1935 to 2004 (average of 34 stations), and 4.2 inches from 1955 to 2004 (average of 37 stations). Variability in precipitation from year to year was large, but there were numerous years with relatively low precipitation in the 1930s and 1960s and many years with relatively high precipitation after about 1970. Annual runoff increased over the last 50 years in the U.S. Great Lakes Basin. Mean annual runoff increased by 2.6 inches, based on the average of 43 U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gaging stations from 1955 to 2004 on streams that were relatively free of human influences. Variability in runoff from year to year was large, but on average runoff was relatively low from 1955 to about 1970 and relatively high from about 1970 to 1995. Runoff increased at all stations in the basin except in and near the Upper Peninsula of Michigan, where relatively small runoff decreases occurred. Changes in annual runoff for the 16 stations with data from 1935 to 2004 were similar to the changes from 1955 to 2004. The mean annual 7-day low runoff (the lowest annual average of 7 consecutive days of runoff) increased from 1955 to 2004 by 0.048 cubic feet per second per square mile based on the average of 27 stations. Runoff in the U.S. Great Lakes Basin from 1955 to 2004 increased for all months except April. November through January and July precipitation and runoff increased by similar amounts. There were differences between precipitation and runoff changes for February, March, and April, which were likely due to lower ratios of snowfall to rain and earlier snowmelt runoff in recent years. Increases in precipitation were larger than increases in runoff for May, June, August, September, and October. Some of this difference could be due to the different locations of the precipitation and streamflow stations in the basin. Part of the difference may be explained by changes in evapotranspiration. Some of the few highly urbanized and highly regulated stations analyzed in this report had larger increases in annual 7-day low-runoff from 1955 to 2004 than any of the stations in the U.S. Great Lakes Basin that are on streams relatively free of human influences. This demonstrates the human influence over time on very low streamflows. Changes-even over periods as long as 90 years-can be part of longer cycles. Previous studies of Great Lakes Basin precipitation and St. Lawrence River streamflow, using data from the mid-1800s to the late-1900s, showed low precipitation and streamflow in the late 1800s and early 1900s relative to earlier and later periods.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Comparison of index velocity measurements made with a horizontal acoustic Doppler current profiler

The State of Illinois' annual withdrawal from Lake Michigan is limited by a U.S. Supreme Court decree, and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is responsible for monitoring flows in the Chicago Sanitary and Ship Canal (CSSC) near Lemont, Illinois as a part of the Lake Michigan Diversion Accounting overseen by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Chicago District. Every 5 years, a technical review committee consisting of practicing engineers and academics is convened to review the U.S. Geological Survey's streamgage practices in the CSSC near Lemont, Illinois. The sixth technical review committee raised a number of questions concerning the flows and streamgage practices in the CSSC near Lemont and this report provides answers to many of those questions. In addition, it is the purpose of this report to examine the index velocity meters in use at Lemont and determine whether the acoustic velocity meter (AVM), which is now the primary index velocity meter, can be replaced by the horizontal acoustic Doppler current profiler (H-ADCP), which is currently the backup meter. Application of the AVM and H-ADCP to index velocity measurements in the CSSC near Lemont, Illinois, has produced good ratings to date. The site is well suited to index velocity measurements in spite of the large range of velocities and highly unsteady flows at the site. Flow variability arises from a range of sources: operation of the waterway through control structures, lockage-generated disturbances, commercial and recreational traffic, industrial withdrawals and discharges, natural inflows, seiches, and storm events. The influences of these factors on the index velocity measurements at Lemont is examined in detail in this report. Results of detailed data comparisons and flow analyses show that use of bank-mounted instrumentation such as the AVM and H-ADCP appears to be the best option for index velocity measurement in the CSSC near Lemont. Comparison of the rating curves for the AVM and H-ADCP demonstrates that the H-ADCP is a suitable replacement for the AVM as the primary index velocity meter in the CSSC near Lemont. A key component to Lake Michigan Diversion Accounting is the USGS gaging station on the CSSC near Lemont, Illinois. The importance of this gaging station in monitoring withdrawals from Lake Michigan has made it one of the most highly scrutinized gaging stations in the country. Any changes in streamgaging practices at this gaging station requires detailed analysis to ensure the change will not adversely affect the ability of the USGS to accurately monitor flows. This report provides a detailed analysis of the flow structure and index velocity measurements in the CSSC near Lemont, Illinois, to ensure that decisions regarding the future of this streamgage are made with the best possible understanding of the site and the characteristics of the flow.

Illinois↗

Characterization of fill deposits in the Calumet region of northwestern Indiana and northeastern Illinois

In October 1993, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, began a study of the fill deposits in the Calumet region of northwestern Indiana and northeastern Illinois. Fill in this area is a mixture of steel-industry wastes, other industrial waste, municipal solid waste, dredging spoil, construction debris, ash, cinders, natural materials, and biological sludge. Fill deposits are concentrated along Lake Michigan; from the Lake Calumet area to the east of the Indiana Harbor Canal; along the Calumet, Little Calumet, and Grand Calumet Rivers; and along the Calumet Sag Channel. Industrial wastes and municipal solid wastes are used as fill near Lake Calumet. Steel-industry wastes, primarily slag, are used as fill along Lake Michigan, Wolf Lake, Lake George, parts of Lake Calumet, and parts of the Calumet and Little Calumet Rivers. Dredging spoil is located along the rivers, and in abandoned river channels, landfills, and tailing ponds. Cinders, ash, construction debris, and natural materials are scattered throughout the area. Currently (1996), fill covers about 60.2 square miles of the study area. A total volume of about 2.1 x 1010 cubic feet of fill was calculated to be present in the Calumet region. Most of this fill is steel-industry waste. Fill deposition in the study area has been essentially continuous from about 1870 to the present (1996). Fill deposited before 1964 was used as foundation for streets and railroad tracks, to create land for industrial expansion, and to dispose of waste material. Much of the fill deposited after 1964 was disposed of in landfills designed to minimize environmental effects. Industrial wastes, municipal solid wastes, steel-industry wastes, and, perhaps, dredging spoil can be associated with increased concentrations of volatile and semivolatile organic compounds, pesticides, cyanide, metals, or major ions in ground water in this area. Construction debris, ash, cinders, and natural fill may be associated with increased concentrations of major ions in ground water.

Illinois, Indiana↗

The Great Lakes Geologic Mapping Coalition—Working collaboratively to understand the geology of the Great Lakes Region

Introduction The Great Lakes Geologic Mapping Coalition (GLGMC), commonly referred to as the “Coalition,” is a partnership between the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), the U.S. States of Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Minnesota, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin and the Canadian province of Ontario. The member States receive funding for geologic mapping work from the USGS National Cooperative Geologic Mapping Program (NCGMP), whereas Ontario participates as a nonfunded partner. The mission of the GLGMC is to produce three-dimensional (3D) geologic maps that depict unconsolidated sediments and near-surface bedrock in the Great Lakes region of North America. Geologic maps are the basis of most earth science investigations and help support resource exploration (energy, minerals, groundwater), natural hazard mitigation, infrastructure development, and land-use planning, all of which can be used to advance economic development and strengthen national security in the Great Lakes region. During the last few million years, the Great Lakes region has experienced repeated glacial advances and retreats, leaving behind extensive sediments, abundant natural resources, and widespread effects on the underlying bedrock geology (Swezey and others, 2022). Linked by shared histories of past glaciations, industrial agriculture, and legacy automotive, coal, steel, and manufacturing industries, the GLGMC member States collaborate to improve the understanding of the 3D distribution of the sediments overlying the region’s bedrock (fig. 1). Developing a comprehensive subsurface 3D framework of this glaciated terrain can provide earth science data to policymakers at all levels. These insights facilitate informed decisions on the exploration, use, and protection of vital resources, such as critical minerals, industrial materials, and aquifers, thereby supporting economic prosperity and the well-being of the citizens of this region. Since its inception in 1998, the Coalition has completed more than 100 geologic mapping projects across the Great Lakes region. Each project aims to deliver geologic maps, 3D datasets, and other information that improves understanding of the geology of the Great Lakes region, with an emphasis on economic and water resources. Key deliverables include 3D geologic maps and models typically portraying sediment thickness, often derived from top-of-bedrock and borehole data. These products are developed through a combination of fieldwork, subsurface modeling, and the collection and analysis of rock and sediment cores. To support Coalition goals, member States collaborate with scientists working on related STATEMAP, EDMAP, and FEDMAP projects. Coalition scientists also engage with Tribal Nations in the Great Lakes region to ensure that Tribal interests pertaining to Coalition work are addressed. Through this collaboration, the Coalition unites the efforts of State, Federal, and Tribal Nation stakeholders to advance geologic data production and enhance understanding of the geologic resources of the Great Lakes region.

Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Minnesota, New York, ↗

Hydraulic modeling and flood-inundation mapping for the Huron River and Ore Lake Tributary, Livingston County, Michigan

Digital flood-inundation maps for an 8-mile (mi) reach of the Huron River near Hamburg, Michigan (station number 04172000), from downstream of Rickett Road to Strawberry Lake, were created by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with Green Oak and Hamburg Townships, Michigan, and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. The flood-inundation maps also include a 1.16-mi reach of the Ore Lake Tributary until it joins the Huron River, approximately 2.22 mi downstream of Rickett Road. The flood-inundation maps, which can be accessed through the USGS Flood Inundation Mapping Science website at http://water.usgs.gov/osw/flood_inundation/ , depict estimates of the areal extent and depth of flooding corresponding to selected water levels (stages) at the USGS streamgage on the Huron River near Hamburg, Michigan (station number 04172000). Near real-time stages at this streamgage may be obtained on the Internet from the USGS National Water Information System at http://waterdata.usgs.gov/ or the National Weather Service (NWS) Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service at http:/water.weather.gov/ahps/ . The NWS Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service also provides forecasted flood hydrographs at this website. Flood profiles were computed for the stream reach by means of a one-dimensional step-backwater model. The hydraulic model was calibrated by using the current stage-discharge relation at the Huron River near Hamburg, Mich., streamgage and was calibrated to water levels determined with stage sensors (pressure transducers) temporarily deployed along the stream reach. The hydraulic model was used to compute a set of water-surface profiles for flood stages ranging from 7.0 to 10.5 feet (ft). This range represents stages just above 6.0 (bankfull) to 2.04 ft above the maximum recorded stage at the USGS streamgage on the Huron River near Hamburg, Mich. (station number 04172000). The computed water-surface profiles were then combined with a Geographic Information System digital elevation model (derived from light detection and ranging [lidar] data having a 0.49-ft vertical accuracy and 3.8-ft horizontal resolution) to delineate the area flooded at each water level. The availability of these maps, along with Internet information regarding current stage and forecasted high-flow stages from the NWS, will provide emergency management personnel and residents with information critical for flood-response activities such as evacuations, road closures, and postflood recovery efforts.

Michigan↗

Geophysical-log and hydraulic-test analyses of groundwater-production wells at the Hannahville Indian Community, Menominee County, Michigan

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Hannahville Indian Community, evaluated the geohydrology of the bedrock formations and hydraulic properties of groundwater-production wells at the Hannahville Indian Community in Menominee County, Michigan. Geophysical logs were collected from five wells at two sites during September 2012. The logs were analyzed to characterize the lithostratigraphy, bedding and fractures, and hydraulic properties of the geologic formations and aquifers beneath the Hannahville Indian Community. The geophysical logs collected included natural gamma radiation, electromagnetic conductivity, wellbore image, caliper, ambient and stressed flowmeter, fluid resistivity, temperature, and wellbore deviation. The geophysical logs were analyzed with results from short-term hydraulic tests to estimate the transmissivity and water-level altitudes of flow zones penetrated by the wells. The geophysical log analysis indicated the wells penetrated four distinct lithostratigraphic units—shale and carbonate rock, upper carbonate rock, carbonate rock and glauconitic sandstone, and lower carbonate rock. Most of the fractures penetrated by the wellbores appeared to be related bedding partings. The lower carbonate rock unit contained solution features. Analysis of the geophysical logs and hydraulic tests indicated that each of the five wells penetrated from one to four flow zones. The Casino 5 well penetrated a flow zone that was associated with solution features and had an estimated total transmissivity of 4,280 feet squared per day (ft 2 /d), the highest estimate for all the wells. The Casino 3 well penetrated four flow zones and had an estimated total transmissivity of 3,570 ft 2 /d. The flow zones penetrated in the lower carbonate rock unit by the Casino 3 and 5 wells were hydraulically connected. The Golf Shack well penetrated two flow zones and had an estimated total transmissivity of 40 ft 2 /d, the lowest estimate for all the wells. The Community 1 and Community 2 wells penetrated three and four flow zones, respectively, and had estimated total transmissivity values of 185 and 280 ft 2 /d, respectively.

Michigan↗

Habitat characteristics of benchmark streams in agricultural areas of eastern Wisconsin

Stream habitat characteristics were measured at twenty sites in agricultural areas of eastern Wisconsin by the U.S. Geological Survey in May and June, 1993 as part of the National Water-Quality Assessment Program Western Lake Michigan Drainages study unit. These "benchmark" stream sites were selected for study to represent standards of reference for comparison to other streams in similar physical settings that appear to be more detrimentally affected by agriculture. The agricultural benchmark streams were selected from four physical settings, or relatively homogeneous units (RHU's), that differ in bedrock type and texture of surficial deposits. Habitat characteristics at streams in these four physical settings are described and compared to each other, and a habitat classification scheme was used to rank the quality of habitat in these streams. Additional aquatic information was collected along with the habitat data: water-quality data and population surveys of fish, invertebrates, and algae. Habitat data were collected at three levels: drainage basin, stream segment between major tributaries (length from 1 to 14 km), and stream reach (approximately 150m). Results of statistical analyses show that, in general, most correlations are among basin-level habitat characteristics. Few correlations were observed among reach- and basin-level characteristics. Principal components analysis (PCA) on basin-level data resulted in principal components that reflect RHU, land use or latitude, and basin size. Groupings of habitat characteristics at the reach level are less clearly attributed to some outside environmental factor. Streams that have undergone habitat restoration for fisheries group closely together on PCA ordination plots. Less than half of the habitat characteristics were found to be significantly different between one RHU and the other three. Characteristics that differed between RHU's were mainly at the basin level but also included some reach-level characteristics. Stream-habitat characteristics were classified according to the Michigan Department of Environmental Quality, Great Lakes Environmental Assessment Section (GLEAS) Procedure 51. No relation was found between GLEAS scores and RHU or the percentage of agricultural land in the drainage basins above the benchmark-stream sites. GLEAS scores were varied in each RHU. Streams with high GLEAS scores (rated good or excellent) can be considered benchmark or reference streams as far as habitat is concerned. Of the 20 streams sampled, 16 met this criterion.

Wisconsin↗

Flood-inundation maps for the White River at Indianapolis, Indiana, 2014

Digital flood-inundation maps for a 6.4-mile reach of the White River in Indianapolis, Indiana, from 0.3 miles upstream of Michigan Street to the Harding Street Generating Station dam (at the confluence with Lick Creek), were created by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in cooperation with the Indiana Office of Community and Rural Affairs. The flood-inundation maps, which can be accessed through the USGS Flood Inundation Mapping Science Web site at http://water.usgs.gov/osw/flood_inundation/ , depict estimates of the areal extent and depth of flooding corresponding to selected water levels (stages) at the USGS streamgage on the White River at Indianapolis, Ind. (station number 03353000). Near-real-time stages at this streamgage may be obtained on the Internet from the USGS National Water Information System at http://waterdata.usgs.gov/ or the National Weather Service (NWS) Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service at http://water.weather.gov/ahps/ , which also forecasts flood hydrographs at this site. Flood profiles were computed for the stream reach by means of a one-dimensional step-backwater model. The model was calibrated by using the current stage-discharge relations at three USGS streamgages: the White River at Indianapolis (station number 03353000), the White River at Michigan Street at Indianapolis (station number 03352953), and the White River at Stout Generating Station at Indianapolis (station number 03353611). The hydraulic model was then used to compute 11 water-surface profiles for flood stages at 1-foot (ft) intervals referenced to the White River at Indianapolis streamgage datum and ranging from 10 ft, or the NWS “action stage,” to 20 ft, which is the highest stage in the stage-discharge relation for the streamgage and the NWS “moderate flood stage.” The simulated water-surface profiles were then combined with a geographic information system digital elevation model (derived from light detection and ranging [lidar] data having a vertical 0.183-ft root mean squared error and 5.0-ft horizontal resolution) to delineate the area flooded at each water level. The availability of these maps, along with Internet information regarding current stage from the USGS streamgage and forecasted high-flow stages from the NWS, will provide emergency management personnel and residents with information that is critical for flood response activities such as evacuations and road closures, as well as for postflood recovery efforts.

Indiana↗

Ground-water quality atlas of Oakland County, Michigan

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with Oakland County Health Division (OCHD), collected 140 water samples from 38 wells in Oakland County during 1998 to better understand ground-water quality. OCHD had observed temporal variations in concentrations of various constituents, so two additional sets of samples were collected to evaluate potential short-term variability related to sample collection procedures and long-term seasonal variability. Replicate samples from 28 wells were analyzed in the Michigan Department of Environmental Quality (MDEQ) Drinking Water Laboratory to compare MDEQ’s analytical results to those obtained from the USGS National Water Quality Laboratory. Several additional databases describing population, land use, water supply, soils, geology, and flows of ground water and surface water are presented in the first part of the report to assist in interpreting the water-quality data. Maps created from these databases are provided in the first portion of the report as an extension of the study-area description. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) has established Maximum Contaminant Levels (MCL) and Secondary Maximum Contaminant Levels (SMCL) for which samples were analyzed in this study. Water from the 38 wells sampled by the USGS did not exceed the SMCL or MCL for sulfate, fluoride, or nitrite. However, water from 26 wells exceeded the SMCL for iron, water from 12 wells exceeded the SMCL for manganese, and water from 12 wells exceeded the SMCL for dissolved solids. Water from two wells exceeded the MCL for nitrate, although nitrate concentrations in water from most wells was below the detection limit. Water from seven wells exceeded the SMCL for chloride, and water from all wells contained detectable concentrations of chloride. Water from five wells exceeded the MCL for arsenic, and most of the wells sampled contained detectable concentrations of arsenic. These five wells were identified from previous MDEQ analyses to have elevated arsenic concentrations, and were sampled to obtain additional chemistry information. Replicate samples were collected from 26 of the 38 wells for analysis at the MDEQ Drinking-Water Laboratory to compare the results with the USGS National Water Quality Laboratory. The results of the replicate analyses indicate close agreement between the laboratories, with mean differences for nitrate, chloride, and arsenic of 0.10 milligrams per liter (mg/L) as nitrogen, 6.8 mg/L, and 0.0008 mg/L, respectively between the USGS and MDEQ analyses. Potential health effects associated with ingesting nitrate, chloride, and arsenic are provided with the water-quality data, along with references for further information.

Michigan↗