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USGS1989

Determination of sensible heat flux over sparse canopy using thermal infrared data

Surface temperatures, T s , were estimated for a natural vegetative surface in Owens Valley, California, with infrared thermometric observations collected from an aircraft. The region is quite arid and is composed primarily of bushes (∼30%) and bare soil (∼70%). Application of the bulk transfer equation for the estimation of sensible heat, H , gave unsatisfactory values when compared to Bowen ratio and eddy correlation methods over a particular site. This was attributed to the inability with existing data to properly evaluate the resistance to heat transfer, r ah . To obtain appropriate r ah -values the added resistance to heat transfer, kB −1 , was allowed to vary although there is both theoretical and experimental evidence that kB −1 for vegetative surfaces can be treated as constant. The present data indicate that for partial canopy cover under arid conditions kB −1 may be a function of T s measured radiometrically. The equation determining kB −1 was simplified and tested over another arid site with good results; however, this had a limited data set (i.e., 6 data points). The dimensionless kB −1 equation is simplified for use over full canopy cover and is shown to give satisfactory estimates of H over a fully-grown wheat crop.

Agricultural and Forest Meteorology↗

USGS2017

Atmospheric rivers emerge as a global science and applications focus

Recent advances in atmospheric sciences and hydrology have identified the key role of atmo-spheric rivers (ARs) in determining the distribution of strong precipitation events in the midlatitudes. The growth of the subject is evident in the increase in scientific publications that discuss ARs (Fig. 1a). Combined with related phenomena, that is, warm conveyor belts (WCBs) and tropical moisture exports (TMEs), the frequency, position, and strength of ARs determine the occurrence of floods, droughts, and water resources in many parts of the world. A conference at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography in La Jolla, California, recently gathered over 100 experts in atmospheric, hydrologic, oceanic, and polar science; ecology; water management; and civil engineering to assess the state of AR science and to explore the need for new information. This first International Atmospheric Rivers Conference (IARC) allowed for much needed introductions and interactions across fields and regions, for example, participants came from five continents, and studies covered ARs in six continents and Greenland (Fig. 1b). IARC also fostered discussions of the status and future of AR science, and attendees strongly supported the idea of holding another IARC at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography in the summer of 2018.

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society↗

USGS2022

Getting ahead of flash drought: From early warning to early action

Flash droughts, characterized by their unusually rapid intensification, have garnered increasing attention within the weather, climate, agriculture, and ecological communities in recent years due to their large environmental and socioeconomic impacts. Because flash droughts intensify quickly, they require different early warning capabilities and management approaches than are typically used for slower-developing “conventional” droughts. In this essay, we describe an integrated research-and-applications agenda that emphasizes the need to reconceptualize our understanding of flash drought within existing drought early warning systems by focusing on opportunities to improve monitoring and prediction. We illustrate the need for engagement among physical scientists, social scientists, operational monitoring and forecast centers, practitioners, and policy-makers to inform how they view, monitor, predict, plan for, and respond to flash drought. We discuss five related topics that together constitute the pillars of a robust flash drought early warning system, including the development of 1) a physically based identification framework, 2) comprehensive drought monitoring capabilities, and 3) improved prediction over various time scales that together 4) aid impact assessments and 5) guide decision-making and policy. We provide specific recommendations to illustrate how this fivefold approach could be used to enhance decision-making capabilities of practitioners, develop new areas of research, and provide guidance to policy-makers attempting to account for flash drought in drought preparedness and response plans.

Bulletin of American Meteorological Society (BAMS)↗

USGS2021

Precipitation-runoff processes in the Merced River Basin, Central California, with prospects for streamflow predictability, water years 1952–2013

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the California Department of Water Resources (DWR), has constructed a new spatially detailed Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) model for the Merced River Basin, California, which is a tributary of the San Joaquin River in California. Operated through an Object User Interface (OUI) with Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) and daily climate distribution preprocessing functionality, the model is calibrated primarily to simulate (and eventually, forecast) year-to-year variations of inflows to Lake McClure during the critical April–July snowmelt season. The model is intended to become part of a suite of methods used by DWR for estimating daily streamflow from the Merced River Basin, especially during the snowmelt season. This study describes the results of the application of an analysis tool that simulates responses to climate and land-use variations at a higher spatial resolution than previously available to DWR. A geographic information system was used to delineate the model domain, that is, areas draining to a single outlet at U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gaging station 11270900, Merced River below Merced Falls Dam, near Snell, CA (also known as California Data Exchange Center station MRC), and subdrainage areas, including four draining to internal gages used as calibration targets. Using this delineation, three contiguous subbasins were recognized and, along with the model domain and nested calibration targets, are the simulation units evaluated in this report. An auto-calibration tool, LUCA (Let Us CAlibrate), was used for each calibration node, from headwaters to basin outlet, and then parameters were manually adjusted to complete the calibration. The main objective was to match April–July snowmelt seasonal discharge values of simulated streamflow to observed (measured or reconstructed) discharge values. Calibration or validation periods used site-specific streamflows—mostly from October 1, 1988, through September 30, 2013—but differed according to the period-of-record available for the measurements collected at internal gages or reconstructed flows for the single outlet. The accuracy of the Merced PRMS streamflow simulations varied seasonally, as compared to observed values. Based on statistical results, the Merced PRMS model satisfactorily simulated snowmelt seasonal streamflows. April–July calibrations for all areas had small negative bias (not greater than 7 percent) and low relative error (less than 8 percent). Less satisfactory performance for other seasons was attributed to several factors: (1) high uncertainty in low or zero flows in summer and fall, (2) lack of accounting for basin withdrawals and anthropogenic water use, (3) unavailability and (or) inaccuracy of observed (measured) meteorological input data, and (4) uncertainty in reconstructed streamflow data. With some additional refinement, the Merced PRMS model may be used for forecasting seasonal and longer-term streamflow variations; evaluating forecasted and past climate and land cover changes; providing water-resource managers with a consistent and documented method for estimating streamflow at ungaged sites within the basin; and aiding environmental studies, hydraulic design, water management, and water-quality projects in the Merced River Basin.

California↗

USGS2013

Application of a hydrodynamic and sediment transport model for guidance of response efforts related to the Deepwater Horizon oil spill in the Northern Gulf of Mexico along the coast of Alabama and Florida

U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) scientists have provided a model-based assessment of transport and deposition of residual Deepwater Horizon oil along the shoreline within the northern Gulf of Mexico in the form of mixtures of sand and weathered oil, known as surface residual balls (SRBs). The results of this USGS research, in combination with results from other components of the overall study, will inform operational decisionmaking. The results will provide guidance for response activities and data collection needs during future oil spills. In May 2012 the U.S. Coast Guard, acting as the Deepwater Horizon Federal on-scene coordinator, chartered an operational science advisory team to provide a science-based review of data collected and to conduct additional directed studies and sampling. The goal was to characterize typical shoreline profiles and morphology in the northern Gulf of Mexico to identify likely sources of residual oil and to evaluate mechanisms whereby reoiling phenomena may be occurring (for example, burial and exhumation and alongshore transport). A steering committee cochaired by British Petroleum Corporation (BP) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is overseeing the project and includes State on-scene coordinators from four States (Alabama, Florida, Louisiana, and Mississippi), trustees of the U.S. Department of the Interior (DOI), and representatives from the U.S. Coast Guard. This report presents the results of hydrodynamic and sediment transport models and developed techniques for analyzing potential SRB movement and burial and exhumation along the coastline of Alabama and Florida. Results from these modeling efforts are being used to explain the complexity of reoiling in the nearshore environment and to broaden consideration of the different scenarios and difficulties that are being faced in identifying and removing residual oil. For instance, modeling results suggest that larger SRBs are not, under the most commonly observed low-energy wave conditions, likely to move very far alongshore. This finding suggests that SRBs from one source location may not (outside of storm conditions) be redistributed to other up or down coast locations. This information can guide operational response decisions. In addition, because SRBs are less mobile compared with sand, they are likely to become buried and unburied under normal sand transport processes thereby lengthening the time SRBs may take to move onshore. The rate of onshore movement was not specifically addressed by this study, yet the results resolve the cross-shore domain and cross-shore variations in alongshore transport that are relevant to achieving the primary objectives. Furthermore, during infrequent events (for example, winter storms and severe meteorological events such as Hurricane Isaac of August 2012), energy is shown to be sufficient to move a greater range of SRB sizes and potentially expose and break up submerged oil mats. When SRBs do move alongshore, the models indicate that there are regions that are more conducive to accumulation of SRB material than others. Accumulation can occur where there are reversals and decelerations in alongshore currents and where forces created by shear stress drops below critical thresholds to maintain or initiate SRB movement. In addition, flow and SRB mobility patterns around inlets indicate patterns in hydrodynamic forces that influence redistribution of SRBs and the surface oil that mixed with sediment to form oil mats in the first place.

Alabama;Florida↗

USGS2018

Simulation of potential groundwater recharge for the glacial aquifer system east of the Rocky Mountains, 1980–2011, using the Soil-Water-Balance Model

An understanding of the spatial and temporal extent of groundwater recharge is critical for many types of hydrologic assessments involving water quality, contaminant transport, ecosystem health, and sustainable use of groundwater. Annual potential groundwater recharge was simulated at a 1-kilometer resolution with the Soil-Water-Balance (SWB) model for the glacial aquifer system east of the Rocky Mountains, from central Montana east to Maine, for calendar years 1980–2011. The SWB model used high resolution meteorological, land cover, and soil hydrology datasets that are nationally consistent and publicly available. The SWB model computed daily potential groundwater recharge as precipitation in excess of interception, runoff, evapotranspiration, and soil-water storage capacity. Daily potential recharge values within each year of the simulation were summed to produce annual potential recharge rates. Potential recharge as described in this report is water that infiltrates vertically below the plant rooting zone and is assumed to reach the water table. The calibrated SWB model in this report is called the glacial SWB model. Model calibration assumed that the area contributing to groundwater discharge equaled the surface watershed. The model was calibrated to stream base flows from 39 watersheds throughout the model domain that had hydrologic conditions appropriate for hydrograph separation. Base flows were calculated from daily streamflow records with the HYSEP local minimum hydrograph separation method The glacial SWB model reproduced the mean annual base-flow calibration targets well; the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient was 0.94, and the root mean squared error was 1.28 inches per year. The glacial SWB model provides insight into the spatial and temporal variability in potential annual recharge across the glacial aquifer system. About 20 percent of the active model area had an average potential recharge rate of less than 1 inch per year. Total precipitation, total recharge, and recharge as a percentage of precipitation increased from west to east. A substantial amount of the recharge water (39 percent) entering the glacial aquifer system travels through developed (urbanized) and agricultural landscapes, which are known to cause water-quality impairments. Regional climatic events, such as the 1988 to 1989 drought, are apparent in the potential recharge time series. Potential recharge generally increased across the glacial aquifer system between 2001 and 2011. A comparison of the potential recharge from the glacial SWB model to previous broad-scale recharge estimates reveals several important considerations for future SWB modeling applications. Shifts in the overall distribution of potential recharge between separate models can be explained by methods used to generate base-flow calibration target datasets. Spatial patterns in potential recharge simulated by SWB models are strongly dependent on the data and assumptions used to assign model cells to hydrologic soil groups. A review of several SWB models used to estimate groundwater recharge (and not surface runoff) revealed that model results are most sensitive to input climatic data, followed by surface runoff (curve number) and root-zone depth parameters.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2019

The hydrologic system of the south Florida peninsula—Development and application of the Biscayne and Southern Everglades Coastal Transport (BISECT) model

The Biscayne and Southern Everglades Coastal Transport (BISECT) model was developed by the U.S. Geological Survey under the Greater Everglades Priority Ecosystem Studies Initiative to evaluate, both separately and in conjunction, the likely effects on surface-water stages and flows, hydroperiod, and groundwater levels and salinity in south Florida of (1) a vertical Biscayne aquifer barrier to maintain higher wetland levels, (2) possible future changes to current water-management practices, and (3) sea-level rise. The BISECT model is a combination of the Tides and Inflows to the Mangrove Everglades (TIME) and Biscayne models of the western and eastern parts of south Florida including Everglades National Park, the southern Miami-Dade urban area, and the Biscayne Bay coast and simulates hydrodynamic surface-water flow and three-dimensional groundwater conditions dynamically for the period 1996–2004 by using the Flow and Transport in a Linked Overland/Aquifer Density-Dependent System (FTLOADDS) simulator. BISECT includes a number of parameter and algorithmic refinements that improve simulation results relative to the TIME and Biscayne models and represents the hydrologic system more explicitly, including (1) improved topographic representations, (2) refined Manning’s friction coefficients, (3) improved evapotranspiration computation through spatially variable albedo, (4) increased vertical aquifer discretization, and (5) extension of the western boundary farther offshore. Sensitivity analyses demonstrate that simulated flows into Long Sound have a different pattern of response to tidal amplitude, wind, and frictional resistance changes than do other coastal streams in the model; flows at Broad River and Lostmans River are most sensitive to tidal amplitude, wind, and frictional resistance changes; and flow to the Everglades coastal streams is substantially affected by surface-water/groundwater interactions in the eastern urban areas. Insight into the hydrologic system came from scenario simulations that represent proposed management actions, such as grouting of the aquifer to prevent seepage from the wetlands and changes to water deliveries proposed by the Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan (CERP), and projected sea-level rise. These scenario management changes are considered separately to isolate their specific effects and also in conjunction with sea-level rise. Scenario simulations show that (1) attempts to prevent seepage from the wetlands by grouting the aquifer along the L 31N levee produce minimal effects on surface-water levels; (2) the increased water deliveries proposed in the CERP redistribute flow to the northwestern coastal part of the study area with a minimal reduction to the southeast and a more substantial reduction in flows in the intervening coastal zones, mitigating some sea-level rise effects; (3) sea-level rise has a larger effect on the hydrology (water levels, flow, and salinity) than does CERP restoration; and (4) support for ecological models and hydrologic studies can be provided by applying BISECT to scenarios influenced by climatic and anthropogenic changes or by meteorological variability, such as extreme wet or dry periods.

Florida↗

USGS1992

Deposition of aerially applied BT in an oak forest and its prediction with the FSCBG model

Data are provided from 17 single-swath aerial spray trials that were conducted over a fully leafed, 16-m tall, mixed oak forest. The distribution of cross-swath spray deposits was sampled at the top of the canopy and below the canopy. Micrometeorological conditions were measured above and within the canopy during the spray trials. The USDA Forest Service FSCBG (Forest Service-Cramer-Barry-Grim) model was run to predict the target sampler catch for each trial using forest stand, airplane-application-equipment configuration, and micrometeorological conditions as inputs. Observations showed an average cross-swath deposition of 100 IU cm −2 with large run-to-run variability in deposition patterns, magnitudes, and drift. Eleven percent of the spray material that reached the top of the canopy penetrated through the tree canopy to the forest floor. The FSCBG predictions of the ensemble-averaged deposition were within 17% of the measured deposition at the canopy top and within 8% on the ground beneath the canopy. Run-to-run deposit predictions by FSCBG were considerably less variable than the measured deposits. Individual run predictions were much less accurate than the ensemble-averaged predictions as demonstrated by an average root-mean-square-error (rmse) of 27.9 IU CM −2 at the top of the canopy. Comparisons of the differences between predicted and observed deposits indicated that the model accuracy was sensitive to atmospheric stability conditions. In neutral and stable conditions, a regular pattern of error was indicated by overprediction of the canopy-top deposit at distances from 0 to 20 m downwind from the flight line and underprediction of the deposit both farther downwind than 20 m and upwind of the flight line. In unstable conditions the model generally underpredicted the deposit downwind from the flight line, but showed no regular pattern of error.

Journal of Applied Meteorology↗

USGS2014

Simulation of the effects of rainfall and groundwater use on historical lake water levels, groundwater levels, and spring flows in central Florida

The urbanization of central Florida has progressed substantially in recent decades, and the total population in Lake, Orange, Osceola, Polk, and Seminole Counties more than quadrupled from 1960 to 2010. The Floridan aquifer system is the primary source of water for potable, industrial, and agricultural purposes in central Florida. Despite increases in groundwater withdrawals to meet the demand of population growth, recharge derived by infiltration of rainfall in the well-drained karst terrain of central Florida is the largest component of the long-term water balance of the Floridan aquifer system. To complement existing physics-based groundwater flow models, artificial neural networks and other data-mining techniques were used to simulate historical lake water level, groundwater level, and spring flow at sites throughout the area. Historical data were examined using descriptive statistics, cluster analysis, and other exploratory analysis techniques to assess their suitability for more intensive data-mining analysis. Linear trend analyses of meteorological data collected by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration at 21 sites indicate 67 percent of sites exhibited upward trends in air temperature over at least a 45-year period of record, whereas 76 percent exhibited downward trends in rainfall over at least a 95-year period of record. Likewise, linear trend analyses of hydrologic response data, which have varied periods of record ranging in length from 10 to 79 years, indicate that water levels in lakes (307 sites) were about evenly split between upward and downward trends, whereas water levels in 69 percent of wells (out of 455 sites) and flows in 68 percent of springs (out of 19 sites) exhibited downward trends. Total groundwater use in the study area increased from about 250 million gallons per day (Mgal/d) in 1958 to about 590 Mgal/d in 1980 and remained relatively stable from 1981 to 2008, with a minimum of 559 Mgal/d in 1994 and a maximum of 773 Mgal/d in 2000. The change in groundwater-use trend in the early 1980s and the following period of relatively slight trend is attributable to the concomitant effects of increasing public-supply withdrawals and decreasing use of water by the phosphate industry and agriculture. On the basis of available historical data and exploratory analyses, empirical lake water-level, groundwater-level, and spring-flow models were developed for 22 lakes, 23 wells, and 6 springs. Input time series consisting of various frequencies and frequency-band components of daily rainfall (1942 to 2008) and monthly total groundwater use (1957 to 2008) resulted in hybrid signal-decomposition artificial neural network models. The final models explained much of the variability in observed hydrologic data, with 43 of the 51 sites having coefficients of determination exceeding 0.6, and the models matched the magnitude of the observed data reasonably well, such that models for 32 of the 51 sites had root-mean-square errors less than 10 percent of the measured range of the data. The Central Florida Artificial Neural Network Decision Support System was developed to integrate historical databases and the 102 site-specific artificial neural network models, model controls, and model output into a spreadsheet application with a graphical user interface that allows the user to simulate scenarios of interest. Overall, the data-mining analyses indicate that the Floridan aquifer system in central Florida is a highly conductive, dynamic, open system that is strongly influenced by external forcing. The most important external forcing appears to be rainfall, which explains much of the multiyear cyclic variability and long-term downward trends observed in lake water levels, groundwater levels, and spring flows. For most sites, groundwater use explains less of the observed variability in water levels and flows than rainfall. Relative groundwater-use impacts are greater during droughts, however, and long-term trends in water levels and flows were identified that are consistent with historical groundwater-use patterns. The sensitivity of the hydrologic system to rainfall is expected, owing to the well-drained karst terrain and relatively thin confinement of the Floridan aquifer system in much of central Florida. These characteristics facilitate the relatively rapid transmission of infiltrating water from rainfall to the water table and contribute to downward leakage of water to the Floridan aquifer system. The areally distributed nature of rainfall, as opposed to the site-specific nature of groundwater use, and the generally high transmissivity and low storativity properties of the semiconfined Floridan aquifer system contribute to the prevalence of water-level and flow patterns that mimic rainfall patterns. In general, the data-mining analyses demonstrate that the hydrologic system in central Florida is affected by groundwater use differently during wet periods, when little or no system storage is available (high water levels), compared to dry periods, when there is excess system storage (low water levels). Thus, by driving the overall behavior of the system, rainfall indirectly influences the degree to which groundwater use will effect persistent trends in water levels and flows, with groundwater-use impacts more prevalent during periods of low water levels and spring flows caused by low rainfall and less prevalent during periods of high water levels and spring flows caused by high rainfall. Differences in the magnitudes of rainfall and groundwater use during wet and dry periods also are important determinants of hydrologic response. An important implication of the data-mining analyses is that rainfall variability at subannual to multidecadal timescales must be considered in combination with groundwater use to provide robust system-response predictions that enhance sustainable resource management in an open karst aquifer system. The data-driven approach was limited, however, by the confounding effects of correlation between rainfall and groundwater use, the quality and completeness of the historical databases, and the spatial variations in groundwater use. The data-mining analyses indicate that available historical data when used alone do not contain sufficient information to definitively quantify the related individual effects of rainfall and groundwater use on hydrologic response. The knowledge gained from data-driven modeling and the results from physics-based modeling, when compared and used in combination, can yield a more comprehensive assessment and a more robust understanding of the hydrologic system than either of the approaches used separately.

Florida↗

USGS2016

Hyperspectral narrowband and multispectral broadband indices for remote sensing of crop evapotranspiration and its components (transpiration and soil evaporation)

Evapotranspiration (ET) is an important component of micro- and macro-scale climatic processes. In agriculture, estimates of ET are frequently used to monitor droughts, schedule irrigation, and assess crop water productivity over large areas. Currently, in situ measurements of ET are difficult to scale up for regional applications, so remote sensing technology has been increasingly used to estimate crop ET. Ratio-based vegetation indices retrieved from optical remote sensing, like the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Soil Adjusted Vegetation Index, and Enhanced Vegetation Index are critical components of these models, particularly for the partitioning of ET into transpiration and soil evaporation. These indices have their limitations, however, and can induce large model bias and error. In this study, micrometeorological and spectroradiometric data collected over two growing seasons in cotton, maize, and rice fields in the Central Valley of California were used to identify spectral wavelengths from 428 to 2295 nm that produced the highest correlation to and lowest error with ET, transpiration, and soil evaporation. The analysis was performed with hyperspectral narrowbands (HNBs) at 10 nm intervals and multispectral broadbands (MSBBs) commonly retrieved by Earth observation platforms. The study revealed that (1) HNB indices consistently explained more variability in ET (Δ R 2 = 0.12), transpiration (Δ R 2 = 0.17), and soil evaporation (Δ R 2 = 0.14) than MSBB indices; (2) the relationship between transpiration using the ratio-based index most commonly used for ET modeling, NDVI, was strong ( R 2 = 0.51), but the hyperspectral equivalent was superior ( R 2 = 0.68); and (3) soil evaporation was not estimated well using ratio-based indices from the literature (highest R 2 = 0.37), but could be after further evaluation, using ratio-based indices centered on 743 and 953 nm ( R 2 = 0.72) or 428 and 1518 nm ( R 2 = 0.69).

California↗

USGS2019

Time to branch out? Application of hierarchical survival models in plant phenology

The sensitivity of phenology to environmental drivers can vary across geography and species. As such, models developed to predict phenology are typically site- or taxon-specific. Generation of site- and taxon-specific models is limited by the intensive in-situ phenological monitoring effort required to generate sufficient data to parameterize each model. Where in-situ phenological observations exist, the data are often subject to analytical issues due to the limited duration of any individual monitoring program, spotty site- and species- level coverage, lack of standardized methodology, and infrequent or variable census intervals. Together, these characteristics constrain our ability to make phenological inferences outside of select sites and taxa where long-duration, intensive monitoring has occurred. In this study, we leveraged two national, standardized phenology datasets to develop a multi-species and multi-site state-space survival model of the onset of deciduous tree and shrub spring (leaf out) and fall (leaf-color) events across temperate ecoregions of the United States. We used data from two national-scale phenological databases, a 9-year, broadly distributed dataset from the USA National Phenology Network and a 4-year dataset from the National Ecological Observatory Network, to quantify regional and interspecific variation in sensitivity to environmental drivers for both spring and fall leaf phenophases. Spring leaf out was generally promoted by longer days, spring growing degree day accumulation, overwinter chilling, and was suppressed by frost events, whereas fall leaf color was promoted by shorter days and cold accumulation. The sensitivity to most environmental drivers tended to be more variable among species than among the regions as defined here (EPA ecoregions of North America, excluding desert and tropical areas). The results of this study lay the groundwork for incorporating the growing collection of phenological observations into a generalized framework for predicting the transition states for any species, in any location.

Agricultural and Forest Meteorology↗

USGS1981

Significant results from using earth observation satellites for mineral and energy resource exploration

A large number of Earth-observation satellites orbit our world several times each day, providing new information about the land and sea surfaces and the overlying thin layer of atmosphere that makes our planet unique. Meteorological satellites have had the longest history of experimental use and most are now considered operational. The geologic information collected by the Landsat, Polar Orbiting Geophysical Observatory (POGO), Magsat, Heat Capacity Mapping Mission (HCMM) and Seasat land and ocean observation systems is being thoroughly tested, and some of these systems are now approaching operational use. Landsat multispectral images provide views of large areas of the Earth under uniform lighting conditions and can be obtained at a variety of scales and formats. Not only do the Landsat data provide highly useful images showing surficial materials and structures such as folds and faults, but also measurements and computer-derived ratios of the brightness of different rock types, alteration zones, and mineral associations. These data have led to the finding of a variety of new ore deposits. In addition, the combination of Landsat digital data and aeromagnetic data has extended the use of Landsat as an exploration tool which can be used to readily relate surface features to subsurface anomalies. Magsat data, now being collected, are helping refine information on major crustal anomalies that were first recognized during the analysis of POGO data. The more nearly circular orbit, lower altitude, and increased sophistication of its vector magnetometer enable Magsat to provide more precise information than POGO. Information of this type is required to develop crustal models. Although Magsat is designed to operate for only 4–8 months, the number of orbits that it should be able to make will be sufficient to accomplish its mission and to record a major magnetic storm expected in 1980. HCMM is a two-band visible to near-IR (0.55–1.1 μm) and thermal infrared (10.2–12.5 μm) system designed to measure reflected solar energy, determine the heat capacity of rocks and to monitor soil moisture, thermal effluents, plant canopy temperatures and snow cover. Launched in April 1978, it is in sun-synchronous, circular orbit at an altitude of 620 km. It is a relatively low-resolution system with an instantaneous field of view (IFOV) of 500–600 m and a swath width of 716 km. However, the system is designed to detect objects in the range of 260°–340° K with a sensitivity (NEδT) of 0.4°K at 280°. Recording the thermal radiation of urban heat islands and high thermal inertia of quartzite strata in the Appalachian region are two examples of its land applications. Launched in June 1978, Seasat operated for only 100 days, but successfully acquired much information over both sea and land. The collection of synthetic aperture radar (SAR) imagery and radar altimetry was particularly important to geologists. Although there are difficulties in processing and distributing these data in a timely manner, initial evaluations indicate that the radar imagery supplements Landsat data by increasing the spectral range and offering a different look angle. The radar altimeter provides accurate profiles over narrow strips of land (1 km wide) and has demonstrated usefulness in measuring icecap surfaces (Greenland, Iceland, and Antarctica). The Salar of Uyuni in southern Bolivia served as a calibration site for the altimeter and has enabled investigators to develop a land-based smoothing algorithm that is believed to increase the accuracy of the system to 10 cm. Data from the altimeter are currently being used to measure subsidence resulting from ground water withdrawal in the Phoenix-Tucson area.

Advances in Space Research↗

USGS2019

Northern forest winters have lost cold, snowy conditions that are important for ecosystems and human communities

Winter is an understudied but key period for the socio-ecological systems of northeastern North American forests. A growing awareness of the importance of the winter season to forest ecosystems and surrounding communities has inspired several decades of research, both across the northern forest and at other mid- and high-latitude ecosystems around the globe. Despite these efforts, we lack a synthetic understanding of how winter climate change may impact hydrological and biogeochemical processes and the social and economic activities they support. Here we take advantage of 100 years of meteorological observations across the northern forest region of the northeastern U.S. and eastern Canada to develop a suite of indicators that enable a cross-cutting understanding of 1) how winter temperatures and snow cover have been changing and 2) how these shifts may impact both ecosystems and surrounding human communities. We show that cold and snow-covered conditions have generally decreased over the past 100 years. These trends suggest positive outcomes for tree health as related to reduced fine root mortality and nutrient loss associated with winter frost but negative outcomes as related to the northward advancement and proliferation of forest insect pests. In addition to effects on vegetation, reductions in cold temperatures and snow cover are likely to have negative impacts on the ecology of the northern forest through impacts on water, soils, and wildlife. The overall loss of coldness and snow cover may also have negative consequences for logging and forest products, vector-borne diseases and human health, recreation and tourism, and cultural practices, which together represent important social and economic dimensions for the northern forest region. These findings advance our understanding of how our changing winters may transform the socio- ecological system of a region that has been defined by the contrasting rhythm of the seasons. Our research also identifies a trajectory of change that informs our expectations for the future as the climate continues to warm.

Ecological Applications↗

USGS2011

Overview of the ARkStorm scenario

The U.S. Geological Survey, Multi Hazards Demonstration Project (MHDP) uses hazards science to improve resiliency of communities to natural disasters including earthquakes, tsunamis, wildfires, landslides, floods and coastal erosion. The project engages emergency planners, businesses, universities, government agencies, and others in preparing for major natural disasters. The project also helps to set research goals and provides decision-making information for loss reduction and improved resiliency. The first public product of the MHDP was the ShakeOut Earthquake Scenario published in May 2008. This detailed depiction of a hypothetical magnitude 7.8 earthquake on the San Andreas Fault in southern California served as the centerpiece of the largest earthquake drill in United States history, involving over 5,000 emergency responders and the participation of over 5.5 million citizens. This document summarizes the next major public project for MHDP, a winter storm scenario called ARkStorm (for Atmospheric River 1,000). Experts have designed a large, scientifically realistic meteorological event followed by an examination of the secondary hazards (for example, landslides and flooding), physical damages to the built environment, and social and economic consequences. The hypothetical storm depicted here would strike the U.S. West Coast and be similar to the intense California winter storms of 1861 and 1862 that left the central valley of California impassible. The storm is estimated to produce precipitation that in many places exceeds levels only experienced on average once every 500 to 1,000 years. Extensive flooding results. In many cases flooding overwhelms the state’s flood-protection system, which is typically designed to resist 100- to 200-year runoffs. The Central Valley experiences hypothetical flooding 300 miles long and 20 or more miles wide. Serious flooding also occurs in Orange County, Los Angeles County, San Diego, the San Francisco Bay area, and other coastal communities. Windspeeds in some places reach 125 miles per hour, hurricane-force winds. Across wider areas of the state, winds reach 60 miles per hour. Hundreds of landslides damage roads, highways, and homes. Property damage exceeds $ 300 billion, most from flooding. Demand surge (an increase in labor rates and other repair costs after major natural disasters) could increase property losses by 20 percent. Agricultural losses and other costs to repair lifelines, dewater (drain) flooded islands, and repair damage from landslides, brings the total direct property loss to nearly $ 400 billion, of which $ 20 to $ 30 billion would be recoverable through public and commercial insurance. Power, water, sewer, and other lifelines experience damage that takes weeks or months to restore. Flooding evacuation could involve 1.5 million residents in the inland region and delta counties. Business interruption costs reach $ 325 billion in addition to the $ 400 billion property repair costs, meaning that an ARkStorm could cost on the order of $ 725 billion, which is nearly 3 times the loss deemed to be realistic by the ShakeOut authors for a severe southern California earthquake, an event with roughly the same annual occurrence probability. The ARkStorm has several public policy implications: (1) An ARkStorm raises serious questions about the ability of existing federal, state, and local disaster planning to handle a disaster of this magnitude. (2) A core policy issue raised is whether to pay now to mitigate, or pay a lot more later for recovery. (3) Innovative financing solutions are likely to be needed to avoid fiscal crisis and adequately fund response and recovery costs from a similar, real, disaster. (4) Responders and government managers at all levels could be encouraged to conduct risk assessments, and devise the full spectrum of exercises, to exercise ability of their plans to address a similar event. (5) ARkStorm can be a reference point for application of Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) and California Emergency Management Agency guidance connecting federal, state and local natural hazards mapping and mitigation planning under the National Flood Insurance Plan and Disaster Mitigation Act of 2000. (6) Common messages to educate the public about the risk of such an extreme disaster as the ARkStorm scenario could be developed and consistently communicated to facilitate policy formulation and transformation. These impacts were estimated by a team of 117 scientists, engineers, public-policy experts, insurance experts, and employees of the affected lifelines. In many aspects the ARkStorm produced new science, such as the model of coastal inundation. The products of the ARkStorm are intended for use by emergency planners, utility operators, policymakers, and others to inform preparedness plans and to enhance resiliency.

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