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USGS2012

Management implications of the science: Chapter 7 in A synthesis of aquatic science for management of Lakes Mead and Mohave

Lake Mead, particularly its Boulder Basin, is one of the most intensively monitored reservoirs in the United States. With its importance to societal needs and ecosystem benefits, interest in water quality and water resources of Lake Mead will remain high. A number of agencies have authorities and management interests in Lake Mead and maintain individual agency monitoring programs. These programs were enhanced on an interagency basis from 2004 to 2012 to facilitate intensive monitoring in all major basins of the lake. Recognition that increasing stressors and influences in individual basins can affect water quality throughout Lake Mead and gave rise to an even stronger effort towards the development of holistic and effective interagency approaches. In 2010, agency monitoring programs were used to develop a management plan for water-dependent resources at Lake Mead National Recreation Area (LMNRA). The Long-Term Limnological and Aquatic Resource Monitoring and Research Plan for Lakes Mead and Mohave (the Plan; National Park Service, 2010) documented key management questions to be addressed through monitoring and research, and identified interagency strategic objectives for water quality and water-dependent resources. Moreover, the Plan provides a framework for summarizing water quality and water resource information in five resource categories: water quality and limnology; fish and aquatic biota; sediments; birds; and riparian vegetation. The Plan also addresses three stressors to lake resources: contaminants, invasive species, and climate change. For each of these topics, the current (2012) state of knowledge is summarized for LMNRA (table 7-1), including key scientific questions and findings, management implications, and information needs. A more detailed discussion for each topic follows.

Circular↗

USGS2014

Hydrogeologic framework and groundwater/surface-water interactions of the upper Yakima River Basin, Kittitas County, central Washington

The hydrogeology, hydrology, and geochemistry of groundwater and surface water in the upper (western) 860 square miles of the Yakima River Basin in Kittitas County, Washington, were studied to evaluate the groundwater-flow system, occurrence and availability of groundwater, and the extent of groundwater/surface-water interactions. The study area ranged in altitude from 7,960 feet in its headwaters in the Cascade Range to 1,730 feet at the confluence of the Yakima River with Swauk Creek. A west-to-east precipitation gradient exists in the basin with the western, high-altitude headwaters of the basin receiving more than 100 inches of precipitation per year and the eastern, low-altitude part of the basin receiving about 20 inches of precipitation per year. From the early 20th century onward, reservoirs in the upper part of the basin (for example, Keechelus, Kachess, and Cle Elum Lakes) have been managed to store snowmelt for irrigation in the greater Yakima River Basin. Canals transport water from these reservoirs for irrigation in the study area; additional water use is met through groundwater withdrawals from wells and surface-water withdrawals from streams and rivers. Estimated groundwater use for domestic, commercial, and irrigation purposes is reported for the study area. A complex assemblage of sedimentary, metamorphic, and igneous bedrock underlies the study area. In a structural basin in the southeastern part of the study area, the bedrock is overlain by unconsolidated sediments of glacial and alluvial origin. Rocks and sediments were grouped into six hydrogeologic units based on their lithologic and hydraulic characteristics. A map of their extent was developed from previous geologic mapping and lithostratigraphic information from drillers’ logs. Water flows through interstitial space in unconsolidated sediments, but largely flows through fractures and other sources of secondary porosity in bedrock. Generalized groundwater-flow directions within the unconfined part of the aquifers in unconsolidated sediments indicate generalized groundwater movement toward the Yakima River and its tributaries and the outlet of the study area. Groundwater movement through fractures within the bedrock aquifers is complex and varies over spatial scales depending on the architecture of the fracture-flow system and its hydraulic properties. The complexity of the fracturedbedrock groundwater-flow system is supported by a wide range of groundwater ages determined from geochemical analyses of carbon-14, sulfur hexafluoride, and tritium in groundwater. These geochemical data also indicate that the shallow groundwater system is actively flushing with young, isotopically heavy groundwater, but isotopicallylight, Pleistocene-age groundwater with a geochemicallyevolved composition occurs at depth within the fracturedbedrock aquifers of upper Kittitas County. An eastward depletion of stable isotopes in groundwater is consistent with hydrologically separate subbasins. This suggests that groundwater that recharges in one subbasin is not generally available for withdrawal or discharge into surface-water features within other subbasins. Water budget components were calculated for 11 subbasins using a watershed model and varied based on the climate, land uses, and geology of the subbasin. Synoptic streamflow measurements made in August 2011 indicate that groundwater discharges into several tributaries of the Yakima River with several losses of streamflow measured where the streams exit bedrock uplands and flow over unconsolidated sediments. Profiles of stream temperature during late summer suggest cool groundwater inflow over discrete sections of streams. This groundwater/surfacewater connection is further supported by the stable-isotope composition of stream water, which reflects the local stableisotope composition of groundwater measured at some wells and springs. Collectively, these hydrogeologic, hydrologic, and geochemical data support a framework for evaluating the potential effects of future groundwater appropriations on senior surface-water and groundwater rights and streamflows. Although total pumping rates in upper Kittitas County of about 3.5 cubic feet per second are small relative to other components of the water budget, the magnitude, timing, and location of withdrawals may have important effects on the hydrologic system. The heterogeneous and variably fractured bedrock in the study area precluded a detailed evaluation of localized effects of pumping, but several generalizations about the groundwater and surface-water systems can be made. These generalizations include evidence for the continuity between the groundwater and surface-water system apparent from synoptic streamflow measurements, stream-temperature profiles, and stable-isotope data of groundwater and surface waters.

Washington↗

USGS2011

Simulation of the effects of the Devils Lake State Outlet on hydrodynamics and water quality in Lake Ashtabula, North Dakota, 2006-10

In 2010, a two-dimensional hydrodynamic and water-quality model (CE-QUAL-W2) of Lake Ashtabula, North Dakota, was developed by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the North Dakota State Water Commission to understand the dynamics of chemical constituents in the reservoir and to provide a tool for the management and operation of the Devils Lake State Outlet in meeting the water-quality standards downstream from Baldhill Dam. The Lake Ashtabula model was calibrated for hydrodynamics, sulfate concentrations, and total dissolved-solids concentrations to ambient conditions from June 2006 through June 2010. The calibrated model then was used to simulate four scenarios that represent various Devils Lake outlet options that have been considered for reducing the water levels in Devils Lake. Simulated water temperatures compared well with measured temperatures and differences varied spatially in Lake Ashtabula from June 2006 through June 2010. The absolute mean error ranged from 0.7 degrees Celsius to 1.0 degrees Celsius and the root mean square error ranged from 0.7 degrees Celsius to 1.1 degrees Celsius. Simulated sulfate concentrations compared well with measured concentrations in Lake Ashtabula. In general, simulated sulfate concentrations were slightly overpredicted with mean differences between simulated and measured sulfate concentrations ranging from -2 milligram per liter to 18 milligrams per liter. Differences between simulated and measured sulfate concentrations varied temporally in Lake Ashtabula from June 2006 through June 2010. In 2006, sulfate concentrations were overpredicted in the lower part of the reservoir and underpredicted in the upper part of the reservoir. Simulated total dissolved solids generally were greater than measured total dissolved-solids concentrations in Lake Ashtabula from June 2006 through June 2010. The mean difference between simulated and measured total dissolved-solids concentrations ranged from -3 milligrams per liter to 15 milligrams per liter, the absolute mean error ranged from 58 milligrams per liter to 100 milligrams per liter, and the root mean square error ranged from 73 milligrams per liter to 114 milligrams per liter. Simulated sulfate concentrations from four scenarios were compared to simulated ambient concentrations from June 2006 through June 2009. For scenario 1, the same location, outflow capacity, and sulfate concentration as the current (2010) Devils Lake State Outlet were assumed. The increased flow and sulfate concentration in scenario 1, beginning on May 31 and extending to October 31 each year, resulted in an increase in sulfate concentrations to greater than 450 milligrams per liter in the reservoir at site 7T (approximately the middle of the reservoir), starting July 5 in 2006, July 28 in 2007, and July 15 in 2008. Sulfate concentrations increased to greater than 450 milligrams per liter considerably later at site 1T (near the dam), starting October 8 in 2006, October 29 in 2007, and October 3 in 2008. For scenario 2, the same Devils Lake State Outlet sulfate concentration as scenario 1 was assumed, but the flow through the Devils Lake State Outlet was doubled, which resulted in a more rapid increase in sulfate concentrations in the lower part of the reservoir and slightly greater values at all four sites compared to scenario 1. Sulfate concentrations increased to greater than 450 milligrams per liter 61 days earlier in 2006, 67 days earlier in 2007, and 41 days earlier in 2008 at site 1T. For scenarios 3 and 4, possible increases in flow and concentration from the current outlet location (from the West Bay of Devils Lake) and from a proposed outlet from East Devils Lake were simulated. Conditions for scenario 3 resulted in a relatively rapid increase in sulfate concentrations in the reservoir, and concentrations were greater than 750 milligrams per liter in most years at all four sites. As expected, scenario 4 resulted in greater sulfate concentr

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2023

Historical changes to channel planform and bed elevations downstream from dams along Fall Creek and Middle Fork Willamette River, Oregon, 1926–2016

Operation of large, multipurpose dams within the Middle Fork Willamette River Basin, Oregon, including the Fall Creek sub-basin, have disrupted natural streamflow and sediment transport regimes and fish passage along the river corridors. Documenting channel morphology, including channel planform, landforms, vegetation cover, and river channel elevations at multiple points in time spanning the 20th and early 21st centuries, is useful for characterizing net changes occurring in response to construction and operation of these dams. The U.S. Geological Survey assessed historical channel changes that occurred within the past century in response to the construction and operation of flood-control dams by evaluating planimetric datasets (from 1926 plan and profile surveys and 1936 and 2016 aerial photographs) and elevation datasets (from 1926 plan and profile surveys and 2015 light detection and ranging [lidar]). This study specifically focuses on the lower 27.3 kilometers (km) of the Middle Fork Willamette River and the lower 11.5 km of Fall Creek, or the reaches downstream from the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Dexter Dam and Fall Creek Dam, to the confluence with Coast Fork Willamette River. Altogether, compilation and evaluation of datasets for Fall Creek and the Middle Fork Willamette River downstream from the dams provide a foundation for understanding: channel morphology and patterns of geomorphic stability prior to dam construction in 1926 and 1936; channel morphology and patterns of lateral and vertical stability of the early 21st century that reflect present-day (post-dam) streamflow and sediment regimes as of 2015–16; and geomorphic transformations of the river corridors in the decades following dam construction, including changes in planform and bed elevation (determined from water-surface elevations). Findings from this study can be used to provide historical and geomorphic context for geomorphic responses to deep reservoir drawdowns on Fall Creek Lake that mobilize reservoir sediment downstream and informing other restoration and river-management activities; this report summarizes one component of a larger research effort to document the magnitude and spatial distribution of geomorphic responses to sediment releases from draining Fall Creek Lake. As of 2016, the modern Fall Creek flows through a narrow, semi-alluvial channel that efficiently conveys water and sediment at typical streamflows downstream from Fall Creek Dam. This channel planform, including the positions and distributions of bars and secondary water features (side channels, alcoves, and ponds), generally reflects pre-dam conditions in 1936, suggesting relatively modest morphological adjustments resulted from reductions in sediment supply and alterations to peak streamflow after dam construction. The most substantial morphologic change detected over this period was a reduction in unvegetated gravel bars. As of 2016, the modern Middle Fork Willamette River is a large, gravel-bed river that, despite substantial transformations in channel morphology and reduction in lateral dynamism following the construction of multiple upstream dams, remains a dominantly alluvial river. Prior to dam construction in 1926 and 1936, the reaches of the Middle Fork Willamette River downstream from Dexter Dam were laterally active with multi-thread and single-thread channels flanked by large, shifting gravel bars. Since streamflow regulation and other channel modifications in the mid-20th century, these reaches have become less laterally active and encompass a narrower floodplain corridor as abundant former gravel bars were converted to low-elevation floodplains colonized by young, dense forests. The Middle Fork Willamette River downstream from Dexter Dam has remained mostly vertically stable between 1926 and 2015, although localized segments possibly decreased in elevation as much as 2.3 meters.

Oregon↗

USGS2000

Assessment of Folsom Lake Watershed response to historical and potential future climate scenarios

An integrated forecast-control system was designed to allow the profitable use of ensemble forecasts for the operational management of multi-purpose reservoirs. The system ingests large-scale climate model monthly precipitation through the adjustment of the marginal distribution of reservoir-catchment precipitation to reflect occurrence of monthly climate precipitation amounts in the extreme terciles of their distribution. Generation of ensemble reservoir inflow forecasts is then accomplished with due account for atmospheric- forcing and hydrologic- model uncertainties. These ensemble forecasts are ingested by the decision component of the integrated system, which generates non- inferior trade-off surfaces and, given management preferences, estimates of reservoir- management benefits over given periods. In collaboration with the Bureau of Reclamation and the California Nevada River Forecast Center, the integrated system is applied to Folsom Lake in California to evaluate the benefits for flood control, hydroelectric energy production, and low flow augmentation. In addition to retrospective studies involving the historical period 1964-1993, system simulations were performed for the future period 2001-2030, under a control (constant future greenhouse-gas concentrations assumed at the present levels) and a greenhouse-gas- increase (1-% per annum increase assumed) scenario. The present paper presents and validates ensemble 30-day reservoir- inflow forecasts under a variety of situations. Corresponding reservoir management results are presented in Yao and Georgakakos, A., this issue. Principle conclusions of this paper are that the integrated system provides reliable ensemble inflow volume forecasts at the 5-% confidence level for the majority of the deciles of forecast frequency, and that the use of climate model simulations is beneficial mainly during high flow periods. It is also found that, for future periods with potential sharp climatic increases of precipitation amount and to maintain good reliability levels, operational ensemble inflow forecasting should involve atmospheric forcing from appropriate climatic periods.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2023

When are environmental DNA early detections of invasive species actionable?

Environmental DNA (eDNA) sampling provides sensitive early detection capabilities for recently introduced taxa. However, natural resource managers struggle with how to integrate eDNA results into an early detection rapid response program because positive eDNA detections are not always indicative of an eventual infestation. We used a structured decision making (SDM) framework to evaluate appropriate response actions to hypothetical eDNA early detections of an introduced aquatic plant in Sebago Lake (Maine, USA). The results were juxtaposed to a recent study that used a similar SDM approach to evaluate response actions to hypothetical eDNA early detections of introduced mussels in Jordanelle Reservoir (Utah, USA). We found that eDNA early detections were not actionable in Sebago Lake because the plant's invasion potential was spatially constrained and the current management activities provided acceptable levels of mitigation. In Jordanelle Reservoir, eDNA detections were actionable due to high invasion potential and analyses supported management actions to contain the invasion. The divergent outcomes of the two case studies are related to the unique attributes of the habitats and species, highlighting the utility of the SDM approach when considering an eDNA monitoring program. We use these two case studies to present a general SDM framework and a set of heuristics that can be efficiently applied to eDNA early detection rapid response scenarios and other instances associated with indeterminant eDNA detections, especially when there is an imperative to make decisions as quickly as possible.

Maine↗

USGS2019

Distribution of adult Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) in relation to water temperatures, Lake Scanewa, Cowlitz River, Washington, 2012

A trap-and-haul program is operated to move anadromous Pacific salmon ( Oncorhynchus spp.) around dams and reservoirs in the Cowlitz River basin, Washington. The primary release site for adult fish is in Lake Scanewa, a small reservoir created by Cowlitz Falls Dam, the uppermost dam in the basin. Releases in the reservoir are terminated when reservoir water temperature is 16 degrees Celsius (°C) or greater to reduce the risk of exposing adult salmon and steelhead ( O. mykiss ) to thermal conditions known to be stressful for these species. When the water temperature limit is reached, fish are released into the Cowlitz and Cispus Rivers upstream of the reservoir. Concerns have been raised about fish presence in the reservoir during warm conditions, so an empirical evaluation of water temperatures selected by spring Chinook salmon ( O. tshawytscha ) in Lake Scanewa was requested by resource managers. We conducted the evaluation during June–October 2012. Water temperature in the reservoir was measured using a series of thermographs combined with daily measurements at the Cowlitz Falls Fish Facility. Temperature-use data were collected from 50 adult hatchery-origin spring Chinook salmon tagged with temperature-sensing radio transmitters and released into the reservoir. This approach yielded a total of 930,056 individual temperature-use records in the reservoir during the study. Tagged fish occupied water temperatures less than 16 °C during most of the study period. Water temperatures ranged from 5 to 18.5 °C during the study, peaking in mid-August. Overall, about 25 percent of the detections of tagged fish were in water temperatures in the 16–20 °C range. In August, tagged fish detections in the 18–20 °C range comprised 13 percent of the total detections, and the remainder of the detections were in water less than or equal to 17 °C. Results from the study indicate that adult hatchery-origin spring Chinook salmon were able to locate and use water temperatures in the reservoir less than levels associated with stress. However, we also observed that thermal conditions in the reservoir were cool relative to most other years during 2008–16. Additional research may be warranted to better understand thermal exposure of adult spring Chinook salmon during warmer years.

Washington↗

USGS2022

Supplemental habitat is reservoir dependent: Identifying optimal planting decision using Bayesian Decision Networks

Environmental management often requires making decisions despite system uncertainty. One such example is mudflat mediation in flood control reservoirs. Reservoir mudflats limit development of diverse fish assemblages due to the lack of structural habitat provided by plants. Seeding mudflats with agricultural plants may mimic floodplain wetlands once inundated and provide fish habitat and achieve habitat management objectives. However, planting success is uncertain because of unpredictable water level fluctuations that affect plant survival and growth. Decision support tools can account for uncertainty that influences decision outcomes and reduce the risk in reservoir mudflat planting decisions. We used Bayesian decision networks and sensitivity analyses to quantify uncertainty surrounding mudflat plantings as supplemental fish habitat in four northwest Mississippi reservoirs. When averaged across all uncertainty, planting was the optimal decision only in Enid Lake. Response profiles indicated planting decisions depended on elevation contours within Enid, Sardis, and Grenada reservoirs. No planting was optimal at all elevations for Arkabutla Lake. These results provide a quantified basis for establishing best management practices and identify key system states that influence decision outcomes. The process used in this study to evaluate planting decisions can be applied to any reservoir by modifying reservoir dependent inputs to evaluate planting decisions to provide supplemental fish habitat.

Mississippi↗

USGS2024

Rare habitats, rare species, and invasive predators highlight management complexities in the Colorado River system

Long-term drought caused Lake Powell, a reservoir on the Colorado River (USA), to decline to its lowest elevation in >50 years during 2022–2023, allowing warm water to pass through intakes of Glen Canyon Dam and facilitating invasion by non-native Smallmouth Bass ( Micropterus dolomieu ). Establishment of bass downstream of the dam could threaten persistence of several native fishes, including two federally listed species. Subsequent detection of larval Smallmouth Bass in a spring-fed slough (river mile -12 slough) connected to the river in Glen Canyon National Recreation Area (NRA) increased urgency to stem further invasion. The National Park Service is evaluating proposed actions to limit effects from non-native predators on native species in the Colorado River, including potentially channelizing the slough. This locally rare, spring-fed waterbody provides habitat for other species, including Western Tiger Salamanders ( Ambystoma mavortium subsp.) of uncertain origin. We found salamanders from the slough had two distinct mitochondrial DNA haplotypes identical to sequences from nearby Arizona Tiger Salamander ( A. m. nebulosum ) populations, confirming they are the native genotype. We detected Red-spotted Toads ( Anaxyrus punctatus ) and Woodhouse’s Toads ( A. woodhousii ) from three other sites in Glen Canyon NRA and 34 sites in adjacent, downstream Grand Canyon National Park (spanning ∼464 km of river) with environmental DNA and traditional surveys. However, we did not detect salamanders elsewhere, matching prior information that salamanders are rare in the Colorado River corridor below Glen Canyon Dam. Based on this information, we discuss management options for the local population of Arizona Tiger Salamanders.

BioRxiv↗

USGS2019

Understanding fish assemblage structure in lentic ecosystems: Relative effects of abiotic factors and management legacies

We investigated associations of fish assemblages and habitat characteristics (e.g., morphology and water chemistry) from 45 natural lakes and reservoirs in Iowa to determine whether species or trophic guild composition and environmental correlations were concordant between waterbodies of different origins. Overall, fish assemblage composition between natural lakes and reservoirs was consistently dissimilar based on a permutational multivariate ANOVA. Species composition from nonmetric multidimensional scaling ordinations for reservoirs was correlated with a variety of limnological and physical characteristics, whereas species composition and trophic composition of natural lakes were weakly associated with habitat characteristics. Species richness was positively related to waterbody and watershed size for reservoirs but not for natural lakes. Conversely, species richness was negatively correlated with increasing eutrophic conditions in natural lakes but not in reservoirs. Overall, distinct differences in assemblage composition were observed between natural and artificial lentic ecosystems and may have resulted from underlying differences in limnological, physical, and anthropogenic influences between systems. Dissimilar management legacies between waterbody types, such as limited or no stocking of nonrecreationally important species and the use of piscicides, may have additionally had overriding effects on the observed assemblage–environmental relationships. For instance, lower trophic richness and species richness in reservoirs appeared to have resulted from replacement of a diversity of small-bodied native species by relatively few commonly stocked sport fishes. Our results emphasize the need to consider waterbody origin and the potential influence of historical or current management strategies on fish assemblage characterization and subsequent inferences made from environmental correlations.

Iowa↗

USGS2019

Potential interaction of groundwater and surface water including autonomous underwater vehicle reconnaissance at Nolin River Lake, Kentucky, 2016

The U.S. Geological Survey collaborated with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Louisville District, on a synoptic study of water quality at Nolin River Lake during August 2016. The purpose of the study was to develop a better understanding of the potential for interaction between groundwater and surface water at Nolin River Lake, Kentucky. Groundwater can have properties that are measurably different from those in adjacent surface water, and inflows and outflows can be an important component of water quality and quantity. An improved understanding of potential interaction of groundwater and surface water at Nolin River Lake may be used to refine lake-management strategies. This study (1) compiled and interpreted existing information to characterize the hydrogeological setting and implications for potential interaction of groundwater and surface water in the Nolin River Lake watershed; (2) collected transects of onsite water-quality parameters using an autonomous underwater vehicle (AUV) in areas with potential for interaction of groundwater and surface water, including five sites on Nolin River Lake and one site on the Nolin River; and (3) collected discrete water-quality and phytoplankton community data at the same six sites. A review of existing hydrogeologic information did not indicate the presence of karst features adjacent to or beneath Nolin River Lake that would facilitate groundwater interaction with the reservoir. Observations leading to this conclusion include (1) limestone that is adjacent to the shoreline and perhaps beneath the lake, is overlain with siliciclastic rocks and fine-grained sediment that inhibits infiltration and development of karst features that encourage rapid groundwater flow; (2) the geologic deposits surrounding the reservoir are described as having limited or no potential for development of karst features, some exceptions may exist in tributary valleys; (3) very few karst features were mapped within 1 mile of the reservoir or in the area currently occupied by the reservoir; and (4) faults that intersect the reservoir but may not possess hydraulic properties that cause the faults to be conduits for groundwater flow. Groundwater interaction with reservoir tributaries is likely more common in areas of the watershed upstream from Nolin River Lake where karst hydrogeology is prevalent. Results of water-quality surveys using an AUV from August 15 to 19, 2016, did not identify areas of anomalous values that might indicate groundwater inflows through preferential flow zones. Spatial distributions of water-quality parameters were generally uniform within each constant-depth layer. The constant-depth layers were selected to be above, within, and below the thermocline and ranged from the water surface to 25 feet. Surveys near the bottom of the reservoir that might have been more sensitive to groundwater inflows were not done because presurvey data were not available to indicate locations of obstacles that could ensnare the AUV. Water-quality data collected with the AUV did identify water-quality anomalies where stream tributaries were discharging to the reservoir. The discrete water-quality samples indicated uniformity among the five reservoir sites. The riverine site that is immediately upstream from Nolin River Lake, however, had some unique water-quality characteristics relative to sites on the reservoir. The highest concentrations of nitrate plus nitrite as nitrogen (0.145 milligrams per liter [mg/L]), total phosphorous (0.07 mg/L), chlorophyll a (36.1 micrograms per liter), and pheophytin a (10.2 micrograms per liter) were measured at the Nolin River Lake riverine site (site 2NRR20034). The concentrations of nutrients and chlorophyll a at the riverine site did exceed the 25th percentile of median concentrations measured by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) at other lakes and reservoirs in EPA level IV ecoregion 71a. Concentrations of most nutrients and chlorophyll a at the five reservoir sites also exceeded the 25th percentile of median concentrations in EPA level IV ecoregion 72h. The exception was the concentrations of total phosphorus as phosphorus at the reservoir sites that were at or below the 25th percentile of median concentrations measured by EPA (0.03 mg/L). Concentrations of orthophosphate as phosphorus were less than the method detection limit of 0.004 mg/L at all sites. The phytoplankton community in Nolin River Lake was almost exclusively (greater than 90 percent of total phytoplankton abundance) cyanobacteria, also known as blue-green algae. A species of Cylindrospermopsis dominated the cyanobacterial community at the five reservoir sites, while Chroococcus microscopicus was most abundant at the riverine site. Cyanobacterial cell densities ranged from 10,000 to 198,067,460 cells per liter in five areas in the reservoir and from 4,800 to 73,751,253 cells per liter at the riverine site. Multiple potential sources of water to Nolin River Lake include direct precipitation, overland flow, interflow, groundwater, and surface water. Understanding the exact contribution of each of these components to the water budget at Nolin River Lake may help the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers manage the water quality, water quantity, and biological communities in the reservoir. Additional hydrogeologic and water-quality data that builds on the results of this study may refine the inferences of this study; for example, deeper AUV surveys that target the largest fault zones might further the understanding of the potential for groundwater flow through those features. A complete understanding of the reservoir hydrology, however, may require the use of scientific methods intended for water bodies as large as Nolin River Lake, such as aerial infrared photography and imagery; water mass, chemical, and isotopic balance studies; geophysical measurements; and numerical simulations.

Kentucky↗

USGS2004

Estimating accumulation rates and physical properties of sediment behind a dam: Englebright Lake, Yuba River, northern California

Studies of reservoir sedimentation are vital to understanding scientific and management issues related to watershed sediment budgets, depositional processes, reservoir operations, and dam decommissioning. Here we quantify the mass, organic content, and grain-size distribution of a reservoir deposit in northern California by two methods of extrapolating measurements of sediment physical properties from cores to the entire volume of impounded material. Englebright Dam, completed in 1940, is located on the Yuba River in the Sierra Nevada foothills. A research program is underway to assess the feasibility of introducing wild anadromous fish species to the river upstream of the dam. Possible management scenarios include removing or lowering the dam, which could cause downstream transport of stored sediment. In 2001 the volume of sediments deposited behind Englebright Dam occupied 25.5% of the original reservoir capacity. The physical properties of this deposit were calculated using data from a coring campaign that sampled the entire reservoir sediment thickness (6–32 m) at six locations in the downstream &sim;3/4 of the reservoir. As a result, the sediment in the downstream part of the reservoir is well characterized, but in the coarse, upstream part of the reservoir, only surficial sediments were sampled, so calculations there are more uncertain. Extrapolation from one-dimensional vertical sections of sediment sampled in cores to entire three-dimensional volumes of the reservoir deposit is accomplished via two methods, using assumptions of variable and constant layer thickness. Overall, the two extrapolation methods yield nearly identical estimates of the mass of the reservoir deposit of &sim;26 × 10 6 metric tons (t) of material, of which 64.7–68.5% is sand and gravel. Over the 61 year reservoir history this corresponds to a maximum basin-wide sediment yield of &sim;340 t/km 2 /yr, assuming no contribution from upstream parts of the watershed impounded by other dams. The uncertainties and limitations of the estimates of overall sediment quantities are discussed. Implications for watershed management and future reservoir sedimentation studies are also presented.

California↗

USGS2022

Water storage decisions and consumptive use may constrain ecosystem management under severe sustained drought

Drought has impacted the Colorado River basin for the past 20 years and is predicted to continue. In response, decisions about how much water should be stored in large reservoirs and how much water can be consumptively used will be necessary. These decisions have the potential to limit riverine ecosystem management options through the effect water-supply decisions have on reservoir elevations. We used projected hydrology and river temperatures to compare the outcome of combinations of water storage scenarios and consumptive use limits on metrics associated with ecosystem management of the Colorado River in Grand Canyon. Ecosystem management metrics included the ability to implement designer flows, temperature suitability for fishes, and fragmentation. We compared current water management operations to prioritizing storage in either Lake Mead or Lake Powell combined with three levels of consumptive use. Projected reservoir levels limited environmental flow delivery and increased fragmentation regardless of where water was stored if consumptive use was not limited. Warmer river temperatures associated with low reservoir levels are likely, creating suitable conditions for non-native species of concern, such as smallmouth bass. Water storage decisions provided variability and management flexibility, but water storage was less important when less water was available, highlighting the importance of keeping water in the system to provide flexibility for achieving ecosystem goals.

Arizona, Utah↗

USGS2017

Turbid releases from Glen Canyon Dam, Arizona, following rainfall-runoff events of September 2013

Glen Canyon Dam is a large dam on the Colorado River in Arizona. In September 2013, it released turbid water following intense thunderstorms in the surrounding area. Turbidity was >15 nephelometric turbidity units (NTU) for multiple days and >30 NTU at its peak. These unprecedented turbid releases impaired downstream fishing activity and motivated a rapid-response field excursion. At 5 locations upstream from the dam, temperature, specific conductance, dissolved oxygen, chlorophyll a , and turbidity were measured in vertical profiles. Local streamflow and rainfall records were retrieved, and turbidity and specific conductance data in dam releases were evaluated. Profiling was conducted to determine possible sources of turbidity from 3 tributaries nearest the dam, Navajo, Antelope, and Wahweap creeks, which entered Lake Powell as interflows during this study. We discuss 4 key conditions that must have been met for tributaries to influence turbidity of dam releases: tributary flows must have reached the dam, tributary flows must have been laden with sediment, inflow currents must have been near the depth of dam withdrawals, and the settling velocity of particles must have been slow. We isolate 2 key uncertainties that reservoir managers should resolve in future similar studies: the reach of tributary water into the reservoir thalweg and the distribution of particle size of suspended sediment. These uncertainties leave the source of the turbidity ambiguous, although an important role for Wahweap Creek is possible. The unique combination of limnological factors we describe implies that turbid releases at Glen Canyon Dam will continue to be rare.

Arizona↗

USGS2025

Declining reservoir elevations following a two-decade drought increase water temperatures and non-native fish passage facilitating a downstream invasion

River ecosystems are threatened by interactions among river regulation, non-native species, and climate change. Water use has exceeded supply in USA’s Colorado River basin draining its two largest storage reservoirs (Lake Powell and Lake Mead). In 2022, Lake Powell began releasing water from its lower epilimnion into the Grand Canyon segment of the Colorado River, which (1) increased rates of fish passage from the reservoir through the dam and (2) created river temperatures suitable for establishment of non-native fishes. Subsequently, smallmouth bass ( Micropterus dolomieu) reproduced there for the first time. To assist managers concerned about this invasion, we developed models that (1) predicted propagule pressure at different reservoir elevations and (2) linked reservoir storage/operations, water temperatures, and population dynamics to forecast smallmouth bass population growth potential. Maintaining Lake Powell elevations above 1094 m (3590 ft) would likely minimize propagule pressure from the reservoir and create downstream conditions that minimize smallmouth bass population growth. Dam and reservoir management will likely be less effective for managing smallmouth bass if smallmouth bass become abundant in far downstream reaches.

Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences↗

USGS2017

Development and evaluation of a reservoir model for the Chain of Lakes in Illinois

Forecasts of flows entering and leaving the Chain of Lakes reservoir on the Fox River in northeastern Illinois are critical information to water-resource managers who determine the optimal operation of the dam at McHenry, Illinois, to help minimize damages to property and loss of life because of flooding on the Fox River. In 2014, the U.S. Geological Survey; the Illinois Department of Natural Resources, Office of Water Resources; and National Weather Service, North Central River Forecast Center began a cooperative study to develop a system to enable engineers and planners to simulate and communicate flows and to prepare proactively for precipitation events in near real time in the upper Fox River watershed. The purpose of this report is to document the development and evaluation of the Chain of Lakes reservoir model developed in this study. The reservoir model for the Chain of Lakes was developed using the Hydrologic Engineering Center–Reservoir System Simulation program. Because of the complex relation between the dam headwater and reservoir pool elevations, the reservoir model uses a linear regression model that relates dam headwater elevation to reservoir pool elevation. The linear regression model was developed using 17 U.S. Geological Survey streamflow measurements, along with the gage height in the reservoir pool and the gage height at the dam headwater. The Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficients for all three linear regression model variables ranged from 0.90 to 0.98. The reservoir model performance was evaluated by graphically comparing simulated and observed reservoir pool elevation time series during nine periods of high pool elevation. In addition, the peak elevations during these time periods were graphically compared to the closest-in-time observed pool elevation peak. The mean difference in the simulated and observed peak elevations was -0.03 feet, with a standard deviation of 0.19 feet. The Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient for peak prediction was calculated as 0.94. Evaluation of the model based on accuracy of peak prediction and the ability to simulate an elevation time series showed the performance of the model was satisfactory.

Illinois↗

USGS2023

Modeling flow and water quality in reservoir and river reaches of the Mahoning River Basin, Ohio

Executive Summary The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) is considering changes to the management of water surface elevation in four lakes in the Mahoning River Basin. These changes would affect the timing and amounts of water released to the Mahoning River and could affect the water quality of those releases. To provide information on possible water-quality effects from these operational changes, flow and water-quality models were constructed for Berlin Lake, Lake Milton, Michael J Kirwan Reservoir, Mosquito Creek Lake, Mosquito Creek, and the Mahoning River from the dams downstream to Lowellville, Ohio. The models were calibrated for two calendar years each, with model years selected depending on the availability of water-quality data. Models were developed with CE-QUAL-W2 version 4.2 (Wells, S.A., 2020, CE-QUAL-W2—A two-dimensional, laterally averaged, hydrodynamic and water quality model [version 4.2]: Portland State University, variously paged), a two-dimensional, laterally averaged hydrodynamic and water-quality model. Modeled constituents included flow, velocity, ice cover, water temperature, total dissolved solids (TDS), sulfate, chloride, inorganic suspended sediment, nitrate, ammonia, total Kjeldahl nitrogen, orthophosphate, total phosphorus, dissolved and particulate organic matter, algae, and dissolved oxygen. Iron was included for the lake models, but not the river. A whole-basin model, with the four lake models and river model, was used to run model scenarios to examine the effects of altered lake water surface elevations on flow and water quality in the lakes, the lake outflows, and the Mahoning River. The initial whole-basin model, with calendar year 2013 hydrology and measured or typical water quality, was designated as scenario 0. Mahoning River flows for calendar year 2013 were close to a 20-year median flow. Four additional scenarios were constructed based on reservoir operations model (RES-SIM) model water surface elevations for the four lakes as provided by USACE. Scenario 1 was the RES-SIM base case, scenario 2 kept Berlin Lake water surface elevations higher in summer, scenario 3 allowed 25 percent of summer flood storage to extend the guide curve, and scenario 4 allowed more flexibility in lake management by removing any downstream Mahoning River minimum flow requirements. The Mahoning River model was not changed in any scenarios but received altered flows from the lakes. Significant findings from this study include the following: In two of the four lakes (Berlin and Mosquito Creek Lakes), development of lake model grids using recent bathymetric surveys suggests that sedimentation in these lakes has occurred since they were constructed, altering volume-elevation curves. Tests of model parameter sensitivity showed that modeled water temperature, TDS, and dissolved oxygen were relatively insensitive to model parameter values. Modeled chlorophyll a , a measure of algal concentration, was most sensitive to parameter values; nitrate and total phosphorus concentrations were affected by a few of the parameters tested. As a group, the lake model results were more sensitive to model parameter values compared to the Mahoning River model. Data gaps were identified for inflows, both for water quantity and water quality, that could be filled through future sampling programs. Ample data were available from within the waterbodies for model calibration. The model simulated the general spatial and temporal patterns of water temperature, TDS, chloride, sulfate, nutrients, suspended sediment, organic matter, chlorophyll a , and dissolved oxygen in the lakes and Mahoning River. From late spring to autumn in the years modeled (2006, 2013, 2017–19 depending on the lake), all lakes developed thermal stratification and periods of anoxia in bottom waters. Stratification was most stable in Michael J Kirwan Reservoir and least stable in Mosquito Creek Lake. The stratification and anoxia in Berlin Lake, Lake Milton, and Mosquito Creek Lake could be interrupted by high-flow inputs moving through those lakes. The model predicted the release of ammonia and iron during anoxic periods in the lake hypolimnions. Concentrations of TDS, nitrate, orthophosphate, and total phosphorus increased in the Mahoning River down to Lowellville, the end of the river model, in the years modeled. These concentrations were greater than those in upstream lake releases. Chloride and sulfate concentrations were underpredicted in the Mahoning River, suggesting the presence of unreported chloride and sulfate inputs to the river, at least in the years modeled. Model scenario 4 kept water surface elevations the highest in all lakes in the April to mid-December period, compared to scenarios 1–3. Model scenario 2 kept water surface elevations in Berlin Lake higher in summer and late autumn, compared to scenarios 1 and 3, but to satisfy downstream minimum flow requirements, water surface elevations in the other lakes had periods of lower water surface elevation. As a group, scenarios 1–3 had largely similar effects on flow and water surface elevation in the Mahoning River because the lake releases in those scenarios still met downstream Mahoning River flow targets. Modeling the removal of downstream flow targets, scenario 4 had periods of lower flow in the Mahoning River from April to mid-September as water was held in the lakes, and periods of higher Mahoning River flow from mid-September through November as the lakes were drawn down to prepare for winter flood-risk management. In the four scenarios, all the lakes and lake outflows had generally similar seasonal cycles of water quality, though some differences were predicted. For instance, higher concentrations of iron and ammonia in the Lake Milton hypolimnion were modeled during a period of both low inflows from Berlin Lake and low outflows at Lake Milton dam. It is possible that those changes could be minimized by maintaining more flow or pulses of higher flow through the lake. Compared to the scenario 1 base case, changes to Mahoning River water quality were relatively minor for scenarios 2 and 3, which maintained downstream flows but shifted the flow source among the upstream lakes. The largest changes in Mahoning River water quality were predicted between Leavittsburg and Lowellville for scenario 4. The periods of lower lake outflows between April and mid-September led to correspondingly higher concentrations of TDS, orthophosphate, total phosphorus, and nitrate in the river, compared to the base case scenario 1. Conversely, the overall greater lake outflows from mid-September through November in scenario 4 led to periods of lower concentrations of TDS and nutrients in that portion of the river, at that time of year.

Ohio↗

USGS2001

River and Reservoir Operations Model, Truckee River basin, California and Nevada, 1998

The demand for all uses of water in the Truckee River Basin, California and Nevada, commonly is greater than can be supplied. Storage reservoirs in the system have a maximum effective total capacity equivalent to less than two years of average river flows, so longer-term droughts can result in substantial water-supply shortages for irrigation and municipal users and may stress fish and wildlife ecosystems. Title II of Public Law (P.L.) 101-618, the Truckee?Carson?Pyramid Lake Water Rights Settlement Act of 1990, provides a foundation for negotiating and developing operating criteria, known as the Truckee River Operating Agreement (TROA), to balance interstate and interbasin allocation of water rights among the many interests competing for water from the Truckee River. In addition to TROA, the Truckee River Water Quality Settlement Agreement (WQSA), signed in 1996, provides for acquisition of water rights to resolve water-quality problems during low flows along the Truckee River in Nevada. Efficient execution of many of the planning, management, or environmental assessment requirements of TROA and WQSA will require detailed water-resources data coupled with sound analytical tools. Analytical modeling tools constructed and evaluated with such data could help assess effects of alternative operational scenarios related to reservoir and river operations, water-rights transfers, and changes in irrigation practices. The Truckee?Carson Program of the U.S. Geological Survey, to support U.S. Department of the Interior implementation of P.L. 101-618, is developing a modeling system to support efficient water-resources planning, management, and allocation. The daily operations model documented herein is a part of the modeling system that includes a database management program, a graphical user interface program, and a program with modules that simulate river/reservoir operations and a variety of hydrologic processes. The operations module is capable of simulating lake/ reservoir and river operations including diversion of Truckee River water to the Truckee Canal for transport to the Carson River Basin. In addition to the operations and streamflow-routing modules, the modeling system is structured to allow integration of other modules, such as water-quality and precipitation-runoff modules. The USGS Truckee River Basin operations model was designed to provide simulations that allow comparison of the effects of alternative management practices or allocations on streamflow or reservoir storages in the Truckee River Basin over long periods of time. Because the model was not intended to reproduce historical streamflow or reservoir storage values, a traditional calibration that includes statistical comparisons of observed and simulated values would be problematic with this model and database. This report describes a chronology and background of decrees, agreements, and laws that affect Truckee River operational practices; the construction of the Truckee River daily operations model; the simulation of Truckee River Basin operations, both current and proposed under the draft TROA and WQSA; and suggested model improvements and limitations. The daily operations model uses Hydrological Simulation Program?FORTRAN (HSPF) to simulate flow-routing and reservoir and river operations. The operations model simulates reservoir and river operations that govern streamflow in the Truckee River from Lake Tahoe to Pyramid Lake, including diversions through the Truckee Canal to Lahontan Reservoir in the Carson River Basin. A general overview is provided of daily operations and their simulation. Supplemental information that documents the extremely complex operating rules simulated by the model is available.

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗