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USGS1995

Journal news

Statistical power (and conversely, Type II error) is often ignored by biologists. Power is important to consider in the design of studies, to ensure that sufficient resources are allocated to address a hypothesis under examination. Deter- mining appropriate sample size when designing experiments or calculating power for a statistical test requires an investigator to consider the importance of making incorrect conclusions about the experimental hypothesis and the biological importance of the alternative hypothesis (or the biological effect size researchers are attempting to measure). Poorly designed studies frequently provide results that are at best equivocal, and do little to advance science or assist in decision making. Completed studies that fail to reject Ho should consider power and the related probability of a Type II error in the interpretation of results, particularly when implicit or explicit acceptance of Ho is used to support a biological hypothesis or management decision. Investigators must consider the biological question they wish to answer (Tacha et al. 1982) and assess power on the basis of biologically significant differences (Taylor and Gerrodette 1993). Power calculations are somewhat subjective, because the author must specify either f or the minimum difference that is biologically important. Biologists may have different ideas about what values are appropriate. While determining biological significance is of central importance in power analysis, it is also an issue of importance in wildlife science. Procedures, references, and computer software to compute power are accessible; therefore, authors should consider power. We welcome comments or suggestions on this subject.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗

USGS2026

Mineral chemistry perspective on remobilization of stored magma at Kamakai'a Hills, Southwest Rift Zone of Kilauea, Island of Hawai'i, USA

Differentiated magmas stored in the rift zones of Kīlauea have received more attention in recent years following eruption of andesite during the early phase of 2018 lower East Rift Zone activity. Despite this growing interest, some of the most voluminous eruptions of differentiated rift zone magmas remain poorly studied. One such eruption, and the most voluminous exposed differentiated flow field at Kīlauea, is the Kamakaiʻa Hills. This eruption took place in the Southwest Rift Zone of Kīlauea, a region that is hypothesized to contain a long-lived rift zone reservoir. The Kamakaiʻa Hills flow field encompasses >250 × 10 6 m 3 of basaltic andesite and basalt compositions with a mineral assemblage of orthopyroxene + clinopyroxene + plagioclase during its early ʻaʻā phase and clinopyroxene + plagioclase + olivine during its late pāhoehoe phase. To better understand storage conditions and magma accumulation, this study focuses on major, minor, and trace elements from the mineral assemblage present within the early ʻaʻā and late pāhoehoe phases. The diversity of clinopyroxene and plagioclase compositions within the early ʻaʻā and late pāhoehoe phases, as well as diverse compositions of plagioclase and orthopyroxene within the early ʻaʻā phase, suggest multiple magma bodies and limited pre-eruption magma mixing within the broader Kamakaiʻa Hills reservoir. Oscillatory zoning patterns (particularly in clinopyroxene) imply processes such as recharge events, magma mixing or mingling, or convection within a differentially cooling, chemically stratified reservoir over protracted time intervals, whereas only limited resorbed mineral textures indicate incomplete mixing of heat and chemically distinct magmas during the dike intrusion that triggered the eruption. Mineral-mineral and mineral-melt thermobarometry indicate predominantly shallow (≤2.5 km depth) crustal storage conditions of the cooled, differentiated magma (∼1100 °C and cooler for the basaltic andesites) to hotter temperatures for the basalts (all >1100 °C). Despite the known large standard errors estimated for mineral-melt and mineral-mineral barometry (10s to >100 MPa), the calculated pressures and depths broadly correspond with earthquake swarm depths beneath the Kamakaiʻa Hills, and drill core and fluid inclusion barometry storage depths of differentiated magmas within the lower East Rift Zone. The Kamakaiʻa Hills differentiated magmas have H 2 O contents (∼0.5 wt%, using plagioclase-melt hygrometry) equivalent to typical Kīlauea basalts. Our data and interpretations demonstrate a complex, long-lived rift zone storage system that consisted of multiple magma bodies and was mobilized into eruption through intrusion of a hotter and more primitive summit-derived (uprift) magma.

Hawaii↗

USGS1993

Factors controlling the geochemical evolution of fumarolic encrustations, Valley of Ten Thousand Smokes, Alaska

Factor and canonical correlation analysis of geochemical data from eight fossil fumaroles suggest that six major factors controlled the formation and evolution of fumarolic encrustations on the 1912 ash-flow sheet in the Valley of Ten Thousand Smokes (VTTS). The six-factor solution model explains a large proportion (low of 74% for Ni to high of 99% for Si) of the individual element data variance. Although the primary fumarolic deposits have been degraded by secondary alteration reactions and up to 75 years of weathering, the relict encrustations still preserve a signature of vapor-phase element transport. This vapor-phase transport probably occurred as halide or oxyhalide species and was significant for As, Sb and Br. At least three, and possibly four, varied temperature leaching events affected the fumarolic deposits. High-temperature gases/liquids heavily altered the ejecta glass and mineral phases adjacent to the fumarolic conduit. As the fumaroles cooled. Fe-rich acidic condensate leached the ejecta and primary fumarolic deposits and resulted in the subsequent precipitation of Fe-hydroxides and/or Fe-oxides. Low- to ambient-temperature leaching and hydration reactions generated abundant hydrated amorphous phases. Up to 87% of the individual element data variance is apparently controlled by the chemistry of the ejecta on which the relict encrustations are found. This matrix chemistry factor illustrates that the primary fumarolic minerals surrounding the active VTTS vents observed by earlier workers have been effectively removed by the dissolution reactions. Element enrichment factors calculated for the VTTS relict encrustations support the statistical factor interpretations. On the average, the relict encrustations are enriched, relative to visibly unaltered matrix protolith, in As, Br, Cr, Sb, Cu, Ni, Pb, Fe, and LOI (an indirect measure of sample H2O content). ?? 1993.

Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research↗

USGS2024

The potential for species distribution models to distinguish source populations from sinks

1. While species distribution models (SDM) are frequently used to predict species occurrences to help inform conservation management, there is limited evidence evaluating whether habitat suitability can reliably predict intrinsic growth rates or distinguish source from sink populations. Filling this knowledge gap is critical for conservation science, as applications of SDMs for management purposes ultimately depend on these typically unobserved population or metapopulation dynamics. 2. Using regression, we associate previously published population level estimates of intrinsic growth and abundance derived from a Bayesian analysis of mark-recapture data for 17 bird species found in the contiguous United States with SDM habitat suitability estimates fitted here to opportunistic data for these same species. We then use AUC to measure how well SDMs can distinguish populations categorized as sources and sinks, depending on their intrinsic growth rates estimated from the mark-recapture data. We built SDMs using two different approaches, boosted regression trees (BRT) and Generalized Linear Models (GLM), and compared their predictive performance. Each SDM was built with presence points obtained from eBird and 10 environmental variables previously selected to model intrinsic growth rates and abundance for these species. 3. We show that SDMs built with opportunistic data are poor predictors of species demography in general; both BRT and GLM explained very little spatial variation of intrinsic growth rate and population abundance (median R2 across 17 species was close to 0.1 for both SDM methods). SDMs do, however, estimate higher suitability for source populations as compared to sinks. Out of 13 species which had both source and sink populations, both BRT and GLM had AUC values greater than 0.7 for 7 species when discriminating between sources and sinks. 4. Habitat suitability have the potential to be a useful measure to indicate a population’s ability to sustain itself as a source population, however more research on a diverse set of taxa is essential to fully explore this potential. This interpretation of habitat suitability can be particularly useful for conservation practice, and identification of explicit cases of when and how SDMs fail to match population demography can be informative for advancing ecological theory.

Journal of Animal Ecology↗

USGS2016

Fault segmentation: New concepts from the Wasatch Fault Zone, Utah, USA

The question of whether structural segment boundaries along multisegment normal faults such as the Wasatch fault zone (WFZ) act as persistent barriers to rupture is critical to seismic hazard analyses. We synthesized late Holocene paleoseismic data from 20 trench sites along the central WFZ to evaluate earthquake rupture length and fault segmentation. For the youngest (<3 ka) and best-constrained earthquakes, differences in earthquake timing across prominent primary segment boundaries, especially for the most recent earthquakes on the north-central WFZ, are consistent with segment-controlled ruptures. However, broadly constrained earthquake times, dissimilar event times along the segments, the presence of smaller-scale (subsegment) boundaries, and areas of complex faulting permit partial-segment and multisegment (e.g., spillover) ruptures that are shorter (~20–40 km) or longer (~60–100 km) than the primary segment lengths (35–59 km). We report a segmented WFZ model that includes 24 earthquakes since ~7 ka and yields mean estimates of recurrence (1.1–1.3 kyr) and vertical slip rate (1.3–2.0 mm/yr) for the segments. However, additional rupture scenarios that include segment boundary spatial uncertainties, floating earthquakes, and multisegment ruptures are necessary to fully address epistemic uncertainties in rupture length. We compare the central WFZ to paleoseismic and historical surface ruptures in the Basin and Range Province and central Italian Apennines and conclude that displacement profiles have limited value for assessing the persistence of segment boundaries but can aid in interpreting prehistoric spillover ruptures. Our comparison also suggests that the probabilities of shorter and longer ruptures on the WFZ need to be investigated.

Utah↗

USGS2014

Seismicity, faulting, and structure of the Koyna-Warna seismic region, Western India from local earthquake tomography and hypocenter locations

Although seismicity near Koyna Reservoir (India) has persisted for ~50 years and includes the largest induced earthquake ( M 6.3) reported worldwide, the seismotectonic framework of the area is not well understood. We recorded ~1800 earthquakes from 6 January 2010 to 28 May 2010 and located a subset of 343 of the highest-quality earthquakes using the tomoDD code of Zhang and Thurber (2003) to better understand the framework. We also inverted first arrivals for 3-D Vp , Vs , and Vp / Vs and Poisson's ratio tomography models of the upper 12 km of the crust. Epicenters for the recorded earthquakes are located south of the Koyna River, including a high-density cluster that coincides with a shallow depth (<1.5 km) zone of relatively high Vp and low Vs (also high Vp / Vs and Poisson's ratios) near Warna Reservoir. This anomalous zone, which extends near vertically to at least 8 km depth and laterally northward at least 15 km, is likely a water-saturated zone of faults under high pore pressures. Because many of the earthquakes occur on the periphery of the fault zone, rather than near its center, the observed seismicity-velocity correlations are consistent with the concept that many of the earthquakes nucleate in fractures adjacent to the main fault zone due to high pore pressure. We interpret our velocity images as showing a series of northwest trending faults locally near the central part of Warna Reservoir and a major northward trending fault zone north of Warna Reservoir.

Maharashtra↗

USGS2012

Thin, low‐velocity crust beneath the southern Yukon‐Tanana Terrane, east central Alaska: Results from Trans‐Alaska crustal transect refraction/wide‐angle reflection data

A seismic refraction/wide‐angle reflection survey for the Trans‐Alaska Crustal Transect program reveals a thin, reflective crust beneath the southern Yukon‐Tanana terrane (YTT) in east central Alaska. These data are the first detailed refraction survey of the southern YTT and compose a 130‐km‐long reversed profile along the Alaska and Richardson highways. Results from this study indicate that low‐velocity (≤ 6.4 km/s) rocks extend to approximately 27 km in depth. Based on these low velocities and an average Poisson's ratio of 0.23 determined for depths of ≤27 km, an overall silicic composition is interpreted for this portion of the crust beneath the Yukon‐Tanana terrane. From approximately 8 to 27 km depth the crust exhibits an increase in reflectivity. This middle to lower crustal reflectivity is modeled as alternating high‐ and low‐velocity lamellae with an average velocity of 6.1 km/s at 10 km depth to an average velocity of 6.4 km/s at 27 km depth. Beneath these reflective, low‐velocity rocks a 3‐ to 5‐km‐thick, 7.0 km/s basal crustal layer produces a prominent reflection that extends to offsets of up to 280 km. The crust‐mantle boundary, modeled at an average depth of 30 km, produces a variable PmP reflection, which may indicate lateral heterogeneity of this boundary, and a weak and emergent Pn refraction with a velocity of 8.2 km/s. We interpret the crustal section as follows: the low‐velocity rocks of the southern YTT extend from the surface to depths of approximately 10 km; underthrust Mesozoic flysch of the Kahiltna terrane, rocks of the Gravina arc, and basement of the Wrangellia(?) terrane extend from 10 to 27 km depth; a 3‐ to 5‐km‐thick layer of mantle‐derived mafic rocks, relic oceanic crust, or Wrangellia(?) terrane lower crust extends from 27 to approximately 30 km depth; a tectonically young Moho beneath the southern YTT is found at an average depth of 30 km; and it is underlain by a mantle that may be relatively cool and/or olivine rich. In this interpretation, the Yukon‐Tanana terrane is a thin‐skinned terrane. Our results indicate that tectonic, and possibly magmatic, underplating has played a significant role in crustal growth for central Alaska.

Alaska↗

USGS2025

Identifying precursors and tracking pulses of magma ascent in multidisciplinary data during the 2018–2023 phreatomagmatic eruption at Semisopochnoi Island, Alaska

The 2018–2023 phreatomagmatic eruptions at Semisopochnoi Island, Alaska produced abundant long-period (LP) seismicity, harmonic and broadband tremor, and explosion signals over several well-monitored periods of eruption and quiescence. The corresponding dataset provides an excellent opportunity to investigate precursory and syn -eruptive geophysical signals of long-lived phreatomagmatic eruptions using multiparameter observations. We generated explosion and LP event catalogs through novel implementations of the REDPy ( Hotovec-Ellis, 2024 ) repeating event detector in mid-2021 following a network upgrade and the onset of a new phase of the eruption. The hundreds of detected explosions show a high degree of infrasound waveform similarity over more than a year, indicating a repeating source mechanism likely associated with explosive magma-water interaction. The seismic LP catalog shows that events began over a month prior to renewed explosive activity at the beginning of August 2021, and that lower frequency index (FI) LPs were generated in the week prior to the onset of explosions. We applied a recently developed machine learning tool (VOISS-Net, Tan et al., 2024 ) to catalog abundant broadband and harmonic seismic tremor recorded before and during the renewed explosive activity, along with LPs and explosions. The tremor catalogs complement the LP and explosion catalogs by filling out the seismic sequence with the dominant signal types. Together, these catalogs reveal a seismic sequence of renewed unrest that started with several weeks of LP events, followed by LPs with lower FI values and harmonic tremor in the days prior to explosive activity, and finally the onset of discrete explosions and broadband eruption tremor. We interpret this sequence as the ascent of a new pulse of magma that first interacted with the hydrothermal/groundwater system to produce LPs, followed by harmonic tremor, and that ultimately drove explosive magma-water interactions and periods of continuous ash emissions. The 2021 seismic sequence, in combination with long-term records of satellite SO 2 emissions, deformation from interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) analysis, ash sample analysis, infrasound, and volcano tectonic seismicity, allows us to interpret the entire 9-year period of unrest and eruption that began with an intrusion and earthquake swarm in 2014.

Alaska↗

USGS2016

Organic petrology and geochemistry of mudrocks from the lacustrine Lucaogou Formation, Santanghu Basin, northwest China: Application to lake basin evolution

Exploration for tight oil in the frontier Santanghu Basin of northwest China has resulted in recent commercial discoveries sourced from the lacustrine Upper Permian Lucaogou Formation, already considered a “world class source rock” in the Junggar Basin to the west. Here we apply an integrated analytical program to carbonate-dominated mudrocks from the Lucaogou Formation in Santanghu Basin to document the nature of organic matter (OM) in the context of an evolving lake system. The organic-rich samples (TOC 2.8–11.4 wt%; n = 10) were widely spaced from an ~ 200 m cored section, interpreted from textural and mineralogical evidence to document transition from a lower under-filled to an overlying balanced-filled lake. Organic matter is dominated by moderate to strongly fluorescent amorphous material with Type I geochemical signature (HI values 510–755; n = 10) occurring in a continuum from lamellar stringers, 10–20 μm thick, some ≥ 1 mm in length (possible microbial mat; preserved only in lower under-filled section) to finely-disseminated amorphous groundmass intimately intermixed with mineral matrix. Biomarkers for methanotrophs and photosynthetic cyanobacteria indicate a complex microbial consortium. A unicellular prasinophyte green alga(?), similar to Tasmanites in marine rocks, is present as discrete flattened discs 50–100 μm in diameter. Type III OM including vitrinite (some fluorescent) and inertinite also is abundant. Solid bitumen, indicating local kerogen conversion, fills voids and occurs throughout the cored section. Vitrinite reflectance values are 0.47–0.58%, consistent with strong OM fluorescence but may be “suppressed”. Other proxies, e.g., biomarker parameters, indicate the Lucaogou Formation is in the early oil window at this location. On average, slightly more amorphous OM and telalginite are present in the lower section, consistent with a shallow, stratified, saline environment with low sediment dilution. More inertinite is present in the upper section, indicating greater terrestrial influx and consistent with higher quartz and plagioclase content (dominantly authigenic chalcedony and albite). Laminated mudstones in the upper section indicate anoxia prevented bioturbation from benthic grazing, also indicating stratified water column conditions. A decrease upsection in authigenic dolomite with reciprocal increase of ankerite/siderite is consistent with decreasing salinity, as is an overall decrease in gammacerane index values. These observations suggest evolution from a shallow, stratified evaporative (saline) setting to a deeper, stratified freshwater basin with higher water input during Lucaogou deposition. The evolution from an under-filled to balance-filled lake in Santanghu Basin is similar to Lucaogou deposition in Junggar Basin, suggesting similar tectonic and climatic controls. Paleoclimate interpretations from other researchers in this area suggested an evolution from semi-arid to humid conditions during the Roadian; we interpret that the evolution from an under-filled to balanced-filled lake seen in our data is in response to climate change, and may represent increased groundwater delivery to the Santanghu Basin.

International Journal of Coal Geology↗

USGS2024

Smaller body size under warming is not due to gill-oxygen limitation in a coldwater salmonid

Declining body size in fishes and other aquatic ectotherms associated with anthropogenic climate warming has significant implications for future fisheries yields, stock assessments and aquatic ecosystem stability. One proposed mechanism seeking to explain such body-size reductions, known as the gill oxygen limitation (GOL) hypothesis, has recently been used to model future impacts of climate warming on fisheries but has not been robustly empirically tested. We used brook trout ( Salvelinus fontinalis ), a fast-growing, cold-water salmonid species of broad economic, conservation and ecological value, to examine the GOL hypothesis in a long-term experiment quantifying effects of temperature on growth, resting metabolic rate (RMR), maximum metabolic rate (MMR) and gill surface area (GSA). Despite significantly reduced growth and body size at an elevated temperature, allometric slopes of GSA were not significantly different than 1.0 and were above those for RMR and MMR at both temperature treatments (15°C and 20°C), contrary to GOL expectations. We also found that the effect of temperature on RMR was time-dependent, contradicting the prediction that heightened temperatures increase metabolic rates and reinforcing the importance of longer-term exposures (e.g. >6 months) to fully understand the influence of acclimation on temperature–metabolic rate relationships. Our results indicate that although oxygen limitation may be important in some aspects of temperature–body size relationships and constraints on metabolic supply may contribute to reduced growth in some cases, it is unlikely that GOL is a universal mechanism explaining temperature–body size relationships in aquatic ectotherms. We suggest future research focus on alternative mechanisms underlying temperature–body size relationships, and that projections of climate change impacts on fisheries yields using models based on GOL assumptions be interpreted with caution.

Journal of Experimental Biology↗

USGS1984

Life cycle of a mayfly Hexagenia limbata in the St. Marys River between Lakes Superior and Huron

Length-frequency distribution curves of Hexagenia limbata nymphs collected in May, August, and October 1974 and May 1975 in the St. Marys River between Lakes Superior and Huron were bimodal for each sampling period. These curves, combined with interpretation of nymphal emergence period and mean surface water temperatures, indicate that the population of Hexagenia nymphs in the St. Marys River is composed of two year classes or cohorts. One cohort emerges per season, 2 years after egg deposition.

Journal of Great Lakes Research↗

USGS2011

The Augustine magmatic system as revealed by seismic tomography and relocated earthquake hypocenters from 1994 through 2009

We incorporate 14 years of earthquake data from the Alaska Volcano Observatory with data from a 1975 controlled‐source seismic experiment to obtain the three‐dimensional P and S wave velocity structure and the first high‐precision earthquake locations at Augustine Volcano to be calculated in a fully three‐dimensional velocity model. Velocity tomography shows two main features beneath Augustine: a narrow, high‐velocity column beneath the summit, extending from ∼2 km depth to the surface, and elevated velocities on the south flank. Our relocation results allow a thorough analysis of the spatio‐temoral patterns of seismicity and the relationship to the magmatic and eruptive activity. Background seismicity is centered beneath the summit at an average depth of 0.6 km above sea level. In the weeks leading to the January 2006 eruption of Augustine, seismicity focused on a NW‐SE line along the trend of an inflating dike. A series of drumbeat earthquakes occurred in the early weeks of the eruption, indicating further magma transport through the same dike system. During the six months following the onset of the eruption, the otherwise quiescent region 1 to 5 km below sea level centered beneath the summit became seismically active with two groups of earthquakes, differentiated by frequency content. The deep longer‐period earthquakes occurred during the eruption and are interpreted as resulting from the movement of magma toward the summit, and the post‐eruptive shorter‐period earthquakes may be due to the relaxation of an emptied magma tube. The seismicity subsequently returned to its normal background rates and patterns.

Alaska↗

USGS2012

The emplacement of ophiolites by collision

Ophiolites, recognized in most of the world's orogenic belts, are generally interpreted to be oceanic crust and upper mantle (lithosphere) fragments that have been incorporated into continental margins at consuming plate boundaries. We suggest that the mechanism for ophiolite emplacement is the same in both the Alpine and Andean-type orogenes. In both geological settings, obduction of oceanic lithosphere onto the continental lithosphere is caused by the convergence of light, buoyant bodies such as oceanic plateaus, continental slivers, island arcs, or old hot spot traces. For example, the Troodos ophiolite complex, previously interpreted by some workers as resulting from continental collision, may have been emplaced by the collision of Cyprus with the Eratosthenes Plateau embedded in the oceanic eastern Mediterranean crust. On the other hand, the Upper Jurassic Coast Range Ophiolites of California, previously interpreted as resulting from typical oceanic subduction, may be the result of a continuous injection of thick nonsubductable packages of light, continentally derived sedimentary rocks, seamounts, and plateaus into the subduction zones. Many other ophiolite complexes may be similarly related to accreted terranes.

Journal of Geophysical Research↗

USGS1995

The Hengill geothermal area, Iceland: variation of temperature gradients deduced from the maximum depth of seismogenesis

Given a uniform lithology and strain rate and a full seismic data set, the maximum depth of earthquakes may be viewed to a first order as an isotherm. These conditions are approached at the Hengill geothermal area, S. Iceland, a dominantly basaltic area. The temperature at which seismic failure ceases for the strain rates likely at the Hengill geothermal area is determined by analogy with oceanic crust, and is about 650 ?? 50??C. The topographies of the top and bottom of the seismogenic layer were mapped using 617 earthquakes. The thickness of the seismogenic layer is roughly constant and about 3 km. A shallow, aseismic, low-velocity volume within the spreading plate boundary that crosses the area occurs above the top of the seismogenic layer and is interpreted as an isolated body of partial melt. The base of the seismogenic layer has a maximum depth of about 6.5 km beneath the spreading axis and deepens to about 7 km beneath a transform zone in the south of the area. -from Author

Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research↗

USGS2004

Biotic and abiotic factors related to rainbow smelt recruitment in the Wisconsin waters of Lake Superior, 1978-1997

Lake Superior rainbow smelt ( Osmerus mordax ) recruitment to 12-13 months of age in the Wisconsin waters of Lake Superior varied by a factor of 9.3 during 1978-1997. Management agencies have sought models that accurately predict recruitment, but no satisfactory models had previously been developed. In this study, modeling was conducted to determine which factors best explained recruitment variability. The Ricker stock-recruitment model derived from only the paired stock and recruit data accounted for 63% of the variability in recruitment data. The functional relationship that accounted for the greatest amount of recruitment variation (81%) included rainbow smelt stock size, May rainfall, and bloater ( Coregonus hoyi ) biomass. Model results were interpreted to mean that recruitment was affected negatively by increased river flows from increased rainfall, and affected positively by the biomass of bloater, and those results were interpreted to mean that bloater mediated the effects of lake trout predation on rainbow smelt recruits. Model results were also interpreted to mean that stock size caused compensatory, density-dependent mortality on rainbow smelt recruits. Correlations observed here may be of value to managers seeking approaches to either enhance or control populations of this species, which is not indigenous to the Great Lakes.

Journal of Great Lakes Research↗

USGS2019

High rates of inflation during a noneruptive episode of seismic unrest at Semisopochnoi Volcano, Alaska in 2014–2015

Magma intrusion rate is a key parameter in eruption triggering but is poorly quantified in existing geodetic studies. Here we examine two episodes of rapid inflation in this context. Two noneruptive microseismic swarms were recorded at Semisopochnoi Volcano, Alaska in 2014–2015. We use differential SAR techniques and TerraSAR‐X images to document surface deformation from 2011 to 2015, which comprises island‐wide radial inflation totaling ~25 cm (+/−1 cm) line of sight displacement in 2014–2015. Multiple source geometries are tested in an inversion of the deformation data, and InSAR data are best fit by a spheroid trending to the northeast and plunging to the southeast, with a major axis of ~4 km and minor axes of ~1 km, directly under the central caldera of Semisopochnoi. In 2014, a modeled influx of 0.043 km 3 of magma caused line of sight displacement of ~17 cm. This magma was stored at a depth of ~8 km, until 2015 when 0.029 km 3 was added. Along with the definition of inflation source parameters, the recorded seismic events are relocated using differential travel times. These relocated events outline a linear aseismic area within a larger zone of shallow (<10 km) seismicity. This aseismic region aligns with the centroid of the deformation model. Based on these geodetic and seismic models, the plumbing system at Semisopochnoi is interpreted as a spheroidal magma storage zone at a depth of ˜8 km below a linear feature of partial melt. The observed deformation and seismicity appear to result from rapid injection into this main storage region.

Alaska↗

USGS2021

Testing hypotheses on signatures of precipitation variability in the river and floodplain deposits of the Paleogene San Juan Basin, New Mexico, USA

Much progress has been made in recent years towards a set of recognition criteria for river discharge variability in river channel deposits, and thus sedimentary proxies for precipitation variability. Despite this progress, there is currently no consensus on how different styles of discharge variability are reflected in river sedimentary records, and whether variable-discharge river records from different climate types can be distinguished. Herein, river discharge and precipitation variability in the Paleogene is investigated using associations between river channel and floodplain deposits across the Paleocene-Eocene boundary from the Paleocene upper Nacimiento Formation and the early Eocene San Jose Formation in the San Juan Basin, New Mexico, USA. The succession is identified as deposits of variable-discharge river systems based on shared channel-deposit characteristics with modern and ancient variable-discharge river systems and the proposed facies models, in addition to alternations of poorly drained and well-drained floodplain deposits and/or slickensides indicating alternating wet-dry cycles. A long-term stratigraphic trend toward increasingly well-drained floodplain deposits is also observed and hypothesized to indicate successively more arid conditions from the Paleocene into the early Eocene. Comparisons with modern rivers from various climate zones suggest a long-term shift from a monsoonal climate in the Paleocene, to a fluctuating subhumid climate, ultimately leading to semiarid to arid conditions in the early Eocene. These observations suggest that floodplain deposits may be a better indicator of ambient climate, whereas channel deposits are records for frequency and magnitude of high-intensity precipitation events. Therefore, the existing facies models for variable-discharge rivers that consider only channel facies may not capture critical information needed to make accurate interpretations of paleoclimatic conditions. This study also adds to a growing body of evidence from geologic records of mid-latitude Paleogene river systems suggesting increases in the magnitude or variability of river discharge coinciding with established climate perturbations.

New Mexico↗

USGS2022

Earthquake-derived seismic velocity changes during the 2018 caldera collapse of Kīlauea volcano

The 2018 Kīlauea caldera collapse produced extraordinary sequences of seismicity and deformation, with 62 episodic collapse events which significantly altered the landscape of the summit region. Despite decades of focused scientific studies at Kīlauea, detailed information about the internal structure of the volcano is limited. Recently developed techniques in seismic interferometry can be used to monitor the internal structure of an active volcano more directly by detecting subtle spatiotemporal changes in seismic wave velocity, but their utility relies on accurate interpretations of the underlying phenomena causing those velocity changes. Here, we retrospectively apply repeating-earthquake-based seismic interferometry to the 2018 Kīlauea eruption sequence. We find that seismic velocities changed over two distinct time scales: a sudden increase followed by a slower decrease in velocity in the hours following each collapse event, and a gradual, long-term decrease in velocity over several weeks that ceased approximately 1 month prior to the end of the eruption. Modeling suggests that short-term changes can be explained by magma reservoir pressurization which specifically closed vertical ring fractures. Long-term changes are related to subsidence of the caldera and likely include the influence of inelastic strain from the formation of new fractures. These observations provide new insights into the evolution of Kīlauea during its progressive collapse and will inform future interpretations for near-real-time monitoring at hazardous volcanoes around the world using similar techniques, especially where a dominant fracture orientation is present.

Hawaii↗