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USGS2016

Does biodiversity protect humans against infectious disease? Reply

The dilution effect is the sort of idea that everyone wants to be true. If nature protects humans against infectious disease, imagine the implications: nature's value could be tallied in terms of human suffering avoided . This makes a potent argument for conservation, convincing even to those who would otherwise be disinclined to support conservation initiatives. The appeal of the dilution effect has been recognized by others: “the desire to make the case for conservation has led to broad claims regarding the benefits of nature conservation for human health” (Bauch et al. 2015 ). Randolph and Dobson ( 2012 ) were among the first to critique these claims, making the case that promotion of conservation to reduce Lyme disease risk, although well intentioned, was flawed. Along with Randolph and Dobson's critique, there have been several calls for a more nuanced scientific assessment of the relationship between biodiversity and disease transmission (Dunn 2010 , Salkeld et al. 2013 , Wood and Lafferty 2013 , Young et al. 2013 ). In response, supporters of the dilution effect have instead increased the scope of their generalizations with review papers, press releases, and, like Levi et al. (2015), letters. These responses have been successful; it is not uncommon to read papers that repeat the assertion that biodiversity generally interferes with disease transmission and that conservation will therefore generally benefit human health. Here, we explain how Levi et al. (2015) and other, similar commentaries use selective interpretation and shifting definitions to argue for the generality of the dilution effect hypothesis.

Ecology↗

USGS2024

Hydrodynamic and salinity tesponse to tidal restoration in the Herring River Estuary, MA, considering present and future sea levels

Coastal salt marshes are crucial ecosystems that provide habitat for a variety of species, improve water quality, and play a major role in the global carbon cycle. However, many salt marshes have been severely damaged by human activities such as diking and draining for urban development. Recently, there has been a noticeable shift toward the prioritization of coastal marsh restoration to re-establish their ecosystem services. The removal of anthropogenic barriers such as dikes, sluices, and culverts is a critical component of many projects because it allows for the restoration of tidal flow to support natural hydrologic regimes and salinity conditions, which play a dominant role in determining the ecological and biogeochemical functioning of marshes. This study examines how proposed removal of hydraulic structures will influence the hydrologic potential for marsh restoration in the Herring River Estuary in Cape Cod, Massachusetts, USA. Construction of dikes, roadways, and low-capacity culverts over the last century has substantially restricted tidal flow in the Herring River Estuary, leading to degradation of salt marsh habitat. The estuary is now undergoing the first phase of a restoration project to re-introduce natural hydrologic conditions, increase salinity, and restore salt marsh habitat. To assess how the Herring River Estuary will respond to human- and climate-driven modifications, we develop and apply a validated hydrodynamic model to simulate the complex tidal and salinity dynamics of the estuary under a range of restoration and sea level rise scenarios. We then quantify how salinity and critical hydrologic variables, including tidal range and depth of mean high water, will evolve for various restoration scenarios considering present and future sea levels. The results of this research can inform coastal management and restoration plans that re-create the natural functioning of the system while protecting critical infrastructure and reducing the risk of restoration failure.

Massachusetts↗

USGS2021

Implications of zoonoses from hunting and use of wildlife in North American arctic and boreal biomes: Pandemic potential, monitoring, and mitigation

The COVID-19 pandemic has re-focused attention on mechanisms that lead to zoonotic disease spillover and spread. Commercial wildlife trade, and associated markets, are recognized mechanisms for zoonotic disease emergence, resulting in a growing global conversation around reducing human disease risks from spillover associated with hunting, trade, and consumption of wild animals. These discussions are especially relevant to people who rely on harvesting wildlife to meet nutritional, and cultural needs, including those in Arctic and boreal regions. Global policies around wildlife use and trade can impact food sovereignty and security, especially of Indigenous Peoples. We reviewed known zoonotic pathogens and current risks of transmission from wildlife (including fish) to humans in North American Arctic and boreal biomes, and evaluated the epidemic and pandemic potential of these zoonoses. We discuss future concerns, and consider monitoring and mitigation measures in these changing socio-ecological systems. While multiple zoonotic pathogens circulate in these systems, risks to humans are mostly limited to individual illness or local community outbreaks. These regions are relatively remote, subject to very cold temperatures, have relatively low wildlife, domestic animal, and pathogen diversity, and in many cases low density, including of humans. Hence, favorable conditions for emergence of novel diseases or major amplification of a spillover event are currently not present. The greatest risk to northern communities from pathogens of pandemic potential is via introduction with humans visiting from other areas. However, Arctic and boreal ecosystems are undergoing rapid changes through climate warming, habitat encroachment, and development; all of which can change host and pathogen relationships, thereby affecting the probability of the emergence of new (and re-emergence of old) zoonoses. Indigenous leadership and engagement in disease monitoring, prevention and response, is vital from the outset, and would increase the success of such efforts, as well as ensure the protection of Indigenous rights as outlined in the United Nations Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples. Partnering with northern communities and including Indigenous Knowledge Systems would improve the timeliness, and likelihood, of detecting emerging zoonotic risks, and contextualize risk assessments to the unique human-wildlife relationships present in northern biomes.

Frontiers in Public Health↗

USGS2015

Establishing a definition of polar bear (Ursus maritimus) health: A guide to research and management activities

The meaning of health for wildlife and perspectives on how to assess and measure health, are not well characterized. For wildlife at risk, such as some polar bear (Ursus maritimus) subpopulations, establishing comprehensive monitoring programs that include health status is an emerging need. Environmental changes, especially loss of sea ice habitat, have raised concern about polar bear health. Effective and consistent monitoring of polar bear health requires an unambiguous definition of health. We used the Delphi method of soliciting and interpreting expert knowledge to propose a working definition of polar bear health and to identify current concerns regarding health, challenges in measuring health, and important metrics for monitoring health. The expert opinion elicited through the exercise agreed that polar bear health is defined by characteristics and knowledge at the individual, population, and ecosystem level. The most important threats identified were in decreasing order: climate change, increased nutritional stress, chronic physiological stress, harvest management, increased exposure to contaminants, increased frequency of human interaction, diseases and parasites, and increased exposure to competitors. Fifteen metrics were identified to monitor polar bear health. Of these, indicators of body condition, disease and parasite exposure, contaminant exposure, and reproductive success were ranked as most important. We suggest that a cumulative effects approach to research and monitoring will improve the ability to assess the biological, ecological, and social determinants of polar bear health and provide measurable objectives for conservation goals and priorities and to evaluate progress.

Science of the Total Environment↗

USGS2021

Consequences of migratory coupling of predators and prey when mediated by human actions

Aim Animal migrations influence ecosystem structure, dynamics and persistence of predator and prey populations. The theory of migratory coupling postulates that aggregations of migrant prey can induce large-scale synchronized movements in predators, and this coupling is consequential for the dynamics of ecological communities. The degree to which humans influence these interactions remains largely unknown. We tested whether creation of large resource pulses by humans such as seasonal herding of reindeer Rangifer tarandus and hunting of moose, Alces alces , can induce migratory coupling with Golden Eagles, Aquila chrysaetos, and whether these lead to demographic consequences for the eagles. Location Fennoscandia. Methods We used movement data from 32 tracked Golden Eagles spanning 125 annual migratory cycles over 8 years. We obtained reindeer distribution data through collaboration with reindeer herders based on satellite tracking of reindeer, and moose harvest data from the national hunting statistics for Sweden. We assessed demographic consequences for eagles from ingesting lead from ammunition fragments in moose carcasses through survival estimates and their links with lead concentrations in eagles' blood. Results In spring, eagles migrated hundreds of kilometres to be spatially and temporally coupled with calving reindeer, whereas in autumn, eagles matched their distribution with the location and timing of moose hunt. Juveniles were more likely to couple with reindeer calving, whereas adults were particularly drawn to areas of higher moose harvest. Due to this coupling, eagles ingested lead from spent ammunition in moose offal and carcasses and the resulting lead toxicity increased the risk of mortality by 3.4 times. Main conclusions We show how migratory coupling connects landscape processes and that human actions can influence migratory coupling over large spatial scales and increase demographic risks for predators. We provide vital knowledge towards resolving human–wildlife conflicts and the conservation of protected species over a large spatial and temporal scale.

Diversity and Distributions↗

USGS2018

Assessment of potential risks from renewable energy development and other anthropogenic factors to wintering Golden Eagles in the western United States

Wind and other energy development are expanding rapidly and on an unprecedented scale within the range of the Golden Eagle ( Aquila chrysaetos ) while other anthropogenic-related changes, wildfires, invasive plants, drought, and climate change are altering or destroying native habitats occupied by Golden Eagles. However, the potential effects of these factors on North American Golden Eagle populations are largely unknown and the most recent evidence indicates that the population in the western United States is declining slightly. Impediments to evaluating the potential effects of energy development projects on wintering Golden Eagles include issues of scale and a paucity of available information about eagle winter use areas and ecology. We applied a predictive model of eagle winter distribution developed for Idaho and Montana, to Idaho, Utah, Nevada and eastern Oregon to help identify potential wintering areas and identify risks that occur in those areas. The model identifies ~40% of the four state study area as potentially suitable eagle winter habitat and provides a basis for spatial assessment of possible risk factors to eagles wintering there. We used eBird and Christmas Bird Count citizen science datasets for an independent evaluation of the accuracy of our predictive distribution model. The model was robust, accurately predicting the presence of wintering Golden Eagles significantly more often than expected. We used digital environmental datasets (layers) of potential risk factors, in conjunction with model predicted eagle distribution, to better understand and estimate the extent of risks to the wintering eagle population in the study area. These layers represent available data for some of the factors previously identified as risks in the landscape to wintering Golden Eagles. The majority of predicted eagle wintering areas occurred where there was little habitat fragmentation (<10%). All predicted winter areas contained at least one potential risk factor (e.g., potential for energy development); 39.4% of predicted winter areas contained at least two known risk factors. The greatest number of risks often occurred where the human footprint was highest and where eagles were less likely to occur during winter. Our results can be used to help prioritize field surveys for identifying important Golden Eagle winter areas in the western United States and determine potential locations where energy development is least likely to have negative effects on wintering eagles. Survey efforts can be allocated in consideration of management and conservation objectives based on predicted habitat suitability and risk factors. For example, surveys for areas of high suitability and low risk can identify places to focus management for conservation of eagle winter areas. Further, sites proposed for wind energy development could be reviewed initially based on model predicted eagle wintering areas and then surveyed to determine if permitting for development is appropriate.

Book chapter↗

USGS2006

Assessing peridomestic entomological factors as predictors for Lyme disease

The roles of entomologic risk factors, including density of nymphal blacklegged ticks ( Ixodes scapularis ), prevalence of nymphal infection with the etiologic agent ( Borrelia burgdorferi) , and density of infected nymphs, in determining the risk of human Lyme disease were assessed at residences in the endemic community of South Kingstown, RI. Nymphs were sampled between May and July from the wooded edge around 51 and 47 residential properties in 2002 and 2003, respectively. Nymphs were collected from all residences sampled. Tick densities, infection rates, and densities of infected nymphs were all significantly higher around homes reporting Lyme disease histories in 2003, while only infection rates were significantly higher in 2002. However, densities of infected nymphs did not significantly predict the probability of Lyme disease at a residence (by logistic regression) in either year. There were no significant differences in entomologic risk factors between homes with state-confirmed Lyme disease histories and homes with self-reported cases (not reported to the state health department). Therefore, although entomologic risk factors tended to be higher at residences with cases of Lyme disease, entomological indices, in the absence of human behavior measures, were not useful predictors of Lyme disease at the scale of individual residences in a tick-endemic community.

Rhode Island↗

USGS2023

Per- and polyfluorinated alkyl substances (PFAS) in Pennsylvania surface waters: A statewide assessment, associated sources, and land-use relations

The objectives of this study are to identify per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) in Pennsylvania surface waters, corresponding associations with potential sources of PFAS contamination (PSOC) and other parameters, and compare raw surface water concentrations to human and ecological benchmarks. Surface water samples from 161 streams were collected in September 2019 and were analyzed for 33 target PFAS and water chemistry. Land use and physical attributes in upstream catchments and geospatial counts of PSOC in local catchments are summarized. The hydrologic yield of the sum of 33 PFAS (∑PFAS) for each stream was computed by normalizing each site's load by the drainage area of the upstream catchment. Utilizing conditional inference tree analysis, the percentage of development (>7.58 %) was identified as a primary driver of the ∑PFAS hydrologic yields. When percentage of development was removed from analysis, ∑PFAS yields were closely related to surface water chemistry associated with landscape alteration (e.g., development or agricultural cropland), such as concentrations of total nitrogen, chloride, and ammonia, but also to count of water pollution control facilities (agricultural, industrial, stormwater, and/or municipal waste pollution abatement facilities). In oil and gas development regions, ∑PFAS yields were associated with combined sewage outfalls. Sites surrounded by ≥2 electronic manufacturing facilities had elevated ∑PFAS yields (median = 241 ng/s/km 2 ). Study results are critical to guide future research, regulatory policy, best practices that will mitigate PFAS contamination, and the communication of human health and ecological risks associated with PFAS exposure from surface waters.

Pennsylvania↗

USGS2025

Host preferences of non-native Acalolepta aesthetica (Coleoptera: Cerambycidae) on the Island of Hawai'i

1. Understanding the host preferences of non-native polyphagous insects is a key step in anticipating their impacts. 2. We apply a technique from wildlife ecology, a resource selection function, to quantify the host preferences of Acalolepta aesthetica Olliff (Coleoptera: Cerambycidae: Lamiinae) in its non-native range on the Island of Hawaiʻi. We then visually surveyed its preferred host to map its distributional extent and conducted laboratory no-choice tests to assess risks to common native woody species. 3. The preferred host of A. aesthetica was the state tree, Aleurites moluccanus (L.) Willd., the kukui (or candlenut). Cacao ( Theobroma cacao L.) was the second most preferred host. Infestations were also observed in Citrus species, Artocarpus altilis (Parkinson) Fosberg (ʻulu or breadfruit) and Persea americana Mill. (avocado), but preferences among these taxa were statistically indistinguishable. 4. Acalolepta aesthetica females oviposited on all tested species in no-choice trials, but larvae growing within ʻōhiʻa ( Metrosideros polymorpha Gaudich.) and koa ( Acacia koa A. Gray) died. It therefore poses a low risk to these two tree species, which are foundational to Hawaiian native forests. Acalolepta aesthetica was able to complete its development within ʻōlapa ( Cheirodendron trigynum (Gaudich.) A. Heller), which could be monitored if the distribution of A. aesthetica spreads to native forests. 5. The host species preferred by A. aesthetica are highly valued for agricultural, horticultural and cultural uses. Developing monitoring and management techniques for this cerambycid and employing strong biosecurity could prevent human-mediated spread and limit negative impacts to other Hawaiian Islands, the U.S. mainland, and the world.

Hawaii↗

USGS2020

Water quality and ecological risk assessment of intermittent streamflow through mining and urban areas of San Marcos River sub-basin, Mexico

Intermittent rivers are becoming more ecologically stressed worldwide. Flow cessation occurs naturally and spatiotemporally in these systems and anthropogenic activities such as wastewater discharges can have considerable impacts. Public entities mostly monitor water quality in permanent streams, leading to insufficient monitoring of intermittent streams and consequently to their potentially inadequate management.. This study analyzed spatiotemporal patterns of water quality and associated ecological risk through the quantification of physicochemical and microbiological pollutants in the intermittent river system of El Novillo and San Marcos in Northeast Mexico. Results showed that water quality varied geographically and seasonally. Based on national and international criteria, annual averages of water quality parameters analyzed suggested that streamflow in these river systems is of poor quality and poses high ecological risk to aquatic life. In the urban area, annual mean concentrations of Cd and Pb (0.14 and 0.4 mg/L) were 77- and 10-fold higher than their respective water quality criteria (<0.0018 and 0.04 mg/L). Statistically significant (q < 0.05) correlations were identified in concentrations of cyanide, Cd, Cu and Pb between wastewater seeping into the river and streamflow within the urban area. These observations highlight the unique sensitivity of intermittent urban streams to anthropogenic activities and may provide useful information to enhance current water management plans for the El Novillo-San Marcos River system for the protection of ecosystem integrity and human health.

El Novillo Canyon↗

USGS2017

Effects of industrial and investigator disturbance on Arctic-nesting geese

Oil and gas development on the Arctic Coastal Plain (ACP) of Alaska, USA may have effects on Arctic-nesting birds. To estimate effects of industrial activity and investigator disturbance on avian productivity, we monitored nests of greater white-fronted geese ( Anser albifrons ) with digital cameras and periodic nest visits during 2013–2014 at 2 sites on the ACP. A disturbed site was adjacent to human-made infrastructure and industrial clean-up activities initiated at the onset of the study and a control site was >2 km from sources of industrial disturbance. We assessed variation in estimates of incubation constancy, nest survival, and predator behavior relative to site, year, and distance from industrial activity using nest photographs obtained at 1-minute intervals. We compared analysis of hourly nest survival informed by intensive monitoring with cameras to analysis of daily nest survival informed by traditional nest visit data obtained at intervals of 5–7 days to assess how method and time scale of sampling affect ecological inference. Geese in both sites exhibited high levels of nest attendance and initiated incubation breaks less than once per day. Observer-caused incubation breaks associated with nest visits ( = 37.8 min) were longer than other types of incubation breaks ( = 8.7 min), demonstrating a differential response by nesting geese to direct human encroachment versus indirect vehicular and aircraft traffic. During both years, geese were absent from nests more frequently in the disturbed ( = 0.9 breaks/day) than control ( = 0.6 breaks/day) site, and this break frequency was slightly higher for nests closer to industrial activity. In the year with high rates of depredation, nest survival was positively related to distance from industrial activity and abandoned infrastructure, consistent with predictions of industry-caused effects. This relationship, however, was not evident in the year with reduced predation pressure, likely because of annual variation in arctic fox ( Vulpes lagopus ) behavior. Analysis of nest survival probability informed by camera data allowed for detection of detailed patterns of variation that were not supported when using only visit data for the same nests. Observer visits were responsible for reductions of 7–35% in nest survival probability, highlighting the importance of minimizing, and controlling for, observer effects in studies of avian productivity. Indirect vehicular and aircraft disturbance posed less risk to nest survival than direct encroachment by observers at nest sites. Therefore, effects of industrial activities on avian productivity in the Arctic can be minimized through practices that limit direct encounters with nests.

Alaska↗

USGS2013

U.S. Geological Survey ecosystems science strategy—Advancing discovery and application through collaboration

Executive Summary Ecosystem science is critical to making informed decisions about natural resources that can sustain our Nation’s economic and environmental well-being. Resource managers and policymakers are faced with countless decisions each year at local, regional, and national levels on issues as diverse as renewable and nonrenewable energy development, agriculture, forestry, water supply, and resource allocations at the urban-rural interface. The urgency for sound decisionmaking is increasing dramatically as the world is being transformed at an unprecedented pace and in uncertain directions. Environmental changes are associated with natural hazards, greenhouse gas emissions, and increasing demands for water, land, food, energy, mineral, and living resources. At risk is the Nation’s environmental capital, the goods and services provided by resilient ecosystems that are vital to the health and wellbeing of human societies. Ecosystem science—the study of systems of organisms interacting with their environment and the consequences of natural and human-induced change on these systems—is necessary to inform decisionmakers as they develop policies to adapt to these changes. This Ecosystems Science Strategy is built on a framework that includes basic and applied science. It highlights the critical roles that U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) scientists and partners can play in building scientific understanding and providing timely information to decisionmakers. The strategy underscores the connection between scientific discoveries and the application of new knowledge, and it integrates ecosystem science and decisionmaking, producing new scientific outcomes to assist resource managers and providing public benefits. We envision the USGS as a leader in integrating scientific information into decisionmaking processes that affect the Nation’s natural resources and human well-being. The USGS is uniquely positioned to play a pivotal role in ecosystem science. With its wide range of expertise, the Bureau can bring holistic, cross-scale, interdisciplinary capabilities to the design and conduct of monitoring, research, and modeling and to new technologies for data collection, management, and visualization. Collectively, these capabilities can be used to reveal ecological patterns and processes, explain how and why ecosystems change, and forecast change over different spatial and temporal scales. USGS science can provide managers with options and decision-support tools to use resources sustainably. The USGS has long-standing, collaborative relationships with the Department of the Interior (DOI) and other partners in the natural sciences, in both conducting science and applying the results. The USGS engages these partners in cooperative investigations that otherwise would lack the necessary support or be too expensive for a single bureau to conduct. The heart of this strategy is a framework for USGS ecosystems science that focuses on five long-term goals, which are seen as interconnected components that reinforce our vision of the USGS providing science that is at the forefront of decisionmaking: Improve understanding of ecosystem structure, function, and processes. The focus for this goal is an understanding of how ecosystems work, including the dynamics of species, their populations, interactions, and genetics, and how they change across spatial and temporal scales. Advance understanding of how drivers influence ecosystem change. The challenges here are explaining the drivers of ecosystem change, their spatio-temporal patterns, their uncertainties and interactions, and their influence on ecosystem processes and dynamics. Improve understanding of the services that ecosystems provide to society. Here the emphasis is on the measurement of environmental capital and ecosystem services, and the identification of sources and patterns of change in space and time. Develop tools, technologies, and capacities to inform decisionmaking about ecosystems. This includes developing new technologies and approaches for conducting applications-oriented ecosystem science. A principal challenge will be how to quantify uncertainty and incorporate it in decision analysis. Apply science to enhance strategies for management, conservation, and restoration of ecosystems. These challenges include development of novel approaches to monitoring, assessment, and restoration of ecosystems; new methods to address species of concern and communities at risk; and innovations in decision analysis and support to address imminent ecosystem changes or those that are underway. Closely integrated with the five goals are four strategic approaches that provide the path forward for the USGS Ecosystems Mission Area. These approaches cross-cut all of the goals and are seen as essential to the implementation of this strategy: Assess information needs for ecosystem science through enhanced partnerships. Work with the DOI and other agencies and institutions to identify, design, and implement priority decision-driven ecological research. Promote the use of interdisciplinary ecosystem science. Design and conduct interdisciplinary process-oriented research in ecosystem science. Enhance modeling and forecasting. Build models to forecast ecosystem change, assess future management scenarios, and reduce uncertainties through an adaptive learning process. Support decisionmaking. Use quantitative approaches to assess the vulnerabilities of ecosystems, habitats, and species, and evaluate strategies for adaptation, restoration, and sustainable management. Following the four strategic approaches are a set of proposed actions that represent a sampling of specific USGS activities that align with this strategy and that address the Nation’s most pressing environmental needs. The strategy emphasizes coordination of activities across the USGS mission areas pursuant to these goals. Ecosystem science is inherently interdisciplinary and requires a broad perspective that incorporates the biological and physical sciences, climate science, information technology, and scientific capacity in mission areas across the Bureau. With its emphasis on coordination, this strategy can provide a critical underpinning for integrated science efforts with scientists from multiple mission areas of the USGS working together. Of course, the USGS will continue to conduct discipline-specific and interdisciplinary investigations, and both will continue to be vital parts of the ecosystem science portfolio. Finally, the strategy stresses the importance of coordination with other Federal agencies and organizations in the natural resources community. The USGS collaborates with resource agencies in the DOI and other organizations throughout the world to meet societal needs for species and ecosystem management. Working with these agencies and organizations, the USGS will play a key role in guiding sound decisionmaking during the next decade by advancing the scientific foundation for sustaining the natural resources that diverse, productive, resilient ecosystems provide.

Circular↗

USGS2016

Integrating subsistence practice and species distribution modeling: assessing invasive elodea’s potential impact on Native Alaskan subsistence of Chinook salmon and whitefish

Alaska has one of the most rapidly changing climates on earth and is experiencing an accelerated rate of human disturbance, including resource extraction and transportation infrastructure development. Combined, these factors increase the state’s vulnerability to biological invasion, which can have acute negative impacts on ecological integrity and subsistence practices. Of growing concern is the spread of Alaska’s first documented freshwater aquatic invasive plant Elodea spp. (elodea). In this study, we modeled the suitable habitat of elodea using global and state-specific species occurrence records and environmental variables, in concert with an ensemble of model algorithms. Furthermore, we sought to incorporate local subsistence concerns by using Native Alaskan knowledge and available statewide subsistence harvest data to assess the potential threat posed by elodea to Chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ) and whitefish ( Coregonus nelsonii ) subsistence. State models were applied to future climate (2040–2059) using five general circulation models best suited for Alaska. Model evaluations indicated that our results had moderate to strong predictability, with area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve values above 0.80 and classification accuracies ranging from 66 to 89 %. State models provided a more robust assessment of elodea habitat suitability. These ensembles revealed different levels of management concern statewide, based on the interaction of fish subsistence patterns, known spawning and rearing sites, and elodea habitat suitability, thus highlighting regions with additional need for targeted monitoring. Our results suggest that this approach can hold great utility for invasion risk assessments and better facilitate the inclusion of local stakeholder concerns in conservation planning and management.

Alaska↗

USGS2014

Use of dynamic occupancy models to assess the response of Darters (Teleostei: Percidae) to varying hydrothermal conditions in a southeastern United States tailwater

During the past 100 years, most large rivers in North America have been altered for flood control, hydropower, navigation or water supply development. Although these activities clearly provide important human services, their associated environmental disturbances can profoundly affect stream-dwelling organisms. We used dynamic multi-species occupancy models combined with a trait-based approach to estimate the influence of site-level and species-level characteristics on patch dynamic rates for 15 darter species native to the Elk River, a large, flow-regulated Tennessee River tributary in Tennessee and Alabama. Dynamic occupancy modelling results indicated that for every 2.5 °C increase in stream temperature, darters were 3.94 times more likely to colonize previously unoccupied stream reaches. Additionally, large-bodied darter species were 3.72 times more likely to colonize stream reaches compared with small-bodied species, but crevice-spawning darter species were 5.24 times less likely to colonize previously unoccupied stream reaches. In contrast, darters were 2.21 times less likely to become locally extinct for every 2.5 °C increase in stream temperature, but high stream discharge conditions elevated the risk of local extinction. Lastly, the presence of populations in neighbouring upstream study reaches contributed to a lower risk of extinction, whereas the presence of populations in neighbouring downstream study reaches contributed to higher rates of colonization. Our study demonstrates the application of a trait-based approach combined with a metapopulation framework to assess the patch dynamics of darters in a regulated river. Results from our study will provide a baseline for evaluating the ecological consequences of alternative dam operations.

River Research and Applications↗

USGS2012

The U.S. Geological Survey Ecosystem Science Strategy, 2012-2022 - Advancing discovery and application through collaboration

Ecosystem science is critical to making informed decisions about natural resources that can sustain our Nation’s economic and environmental well-being. Resource managers and policy-makers are faced with countless decisions each year at local, state, tribal, territorial, and national levels on issues as diverse as renewable and non-renewable energy development, agriculture, forestry, water supply, and resource allocations at the urban-rural interface. The urgency for sound decision-making is increasing dramatically as the world is being transformed at an unprecedented pace and in uncertain directions. Environmental changes are associated with natural hazards, greenhouse gas emissions, and increasing demands for water, land, food, energy, mineral, and living resources. At risk is the Nation’s environmental capital, the goods and services provided by resilient ecosystems that are vital to the health and well-being of human societies. Ecosystem science—the study of systems of organisms interacting with their environment and the consequences of natural and human-induced change on these systems—is necessary to inform decision-makers as they develop policies to adapt to these changes. This Ecosystems Science Strategy is built on a framework that includes basic and applied science. It highlights the critical roles that USGS scientists and partners can play in building scientific understanding and providing timely information to decision-makers. The strategy underscores the connection between scientific discoveries and the application of new knowledge. The strategy integrates ecosystem science and decision-making, producing new scientific outcomes to assist resource managers and providing public benefits. The USGS is uniquely positioned to play an important role in ecosystem science. With its wide range of expertise, the agency can bring holistic, cross-scale, interdisciplinary capabilities to the design and conduct of monitoring, research, and modeling and to new technologies for data collection, management, and visualization. Collectively, these capabilities can be used to reveal ecological patterns and processes, explain how and why ecosystems change, and forecast change over different spatial and temporal scales. USGS science can provide managers with options and decision-support tools to use resources sustainably. The USGS has long-standing, collaborative relationships with the DOI and other partners in the natural sciences, in both conducting science and its application. The USGS engages these partners in cooperative investigations that otherwise would lack the necessary support or be too expensive for a single bureau to conduct. The heart of this strategy is a framework and vision for USGS ecosystems science that focuses on five long-term goals, which are seen as interconnected and reinforcing components: • Improve understanding of ecosystem structure, function, and processes. The focus for this goal is an understanding of how ecosystems work, including the dynamics of species, their populations, interactions, and genetics, and how they change across spatial and temporal scales. • Advance understanding of how drivers influence ecosystem change. The challenges here are explaining the drivers of ecosystem change, their spatio-temporal patterns, their uncertainties and interactions, and their influence on ecosystem processes and dynamics. • Improve understanding of the services that ecosystems provide to society. Here the emphasis is on the measurement of environmental capital and ecosystem services, and the identification of sources and patterns of change in space and time. • Develop tools, technologies, and capacities to inform decision-making about ecosystems. This includes developing new technologies and approaches for conducting applications-oriented ecosystem science. A principal challenge will be how to quantify uncertainty and incorporate it in decision analysis. • Apply science to enhance strategies for management, conservation, and restoration of ecosystems. These challenges include development of novel approaches to monitoring, assessment, and restoration of ecosystems; new methods to address species of concern and communities at risk; and innovations in decision analysis and support to address imminent ecosystem changes or those that are underway. Closely integrated with the five goals are four strategic approaches that provide the path forward for the USGS Ecosystems Mission Area. These approaches cross-cut all of the goals and are seen as essential to the implementation of this strategy: • Assess information needs for ecosystem science through enhanced partnerships. Work with the DOI and other agencies and institutions to identify, design, and implement priority decision-driven ecological research. • Promote the use of interdisciplinary ecosystem science. Design and conduct interdisciplinary process-oriented research in ecosystem science. • Enhance modeling and forecasting. Build models to forecast ecosystem change, assess future management scenarios, and reduce uncertainties through an adaptive learning process. • Support decision-making. Use quantitative approaches to assess the vulnerabilities of ecosystems, habitats, and species, and evaluate strategies for adaptation, restoration, and sustainable management. Following the strategic approaches are a set of proposed actions that represent a sampling of specific activities that align with this strategy and that address the Nation’s most pressing environmental needs. The strategy emphasizes coordination of activities across the USGS mission areas pursuant to these goals. Ecosystem science is inherently interdisciplinary and requires a broad perspective that incorporates the biological and physical sciences, climate science, information technology, and scientific capacity in mission areas across the Bureau. With its emphasis on coordination, this strategy can provide a critical underpinning for integrated science efforts with scientists from multiple mission areas of the USGS working together. Of course, the USGS will continue to conduct both discipline-specific and interdisciplinary investigations, and both will continue to be vital parts of the ecosystem science portfolio. Finally, the strategy stresses the importance of coordination with other Federal agencies and organizations in the natural resources community. The USGS collaborates with resource agencies in the DOI and other organizations throughout the world to meet societal needs for species and ecosystem management. Working with these agencies and organizations, the USGS will play a key role over the next decade in advancing the scientific foundation for sustaining the natural resources that diverse, productive, resilient ecosystems provide.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2019

Black bears alter movements in response to anthropogenic features with time of day and season

Background With the growth and expansion of human development, large mammals will increasingly encounter humans, elevating the likelihood of human-wildlife conflicts. Understanding the behavior and movement of large mammals, particularly around human development, is important for crafting effective conservation and management plans for these species. Methods We used GPS collar data from American black bears ( Ursus americanus ) to determine how seasonal food resources and human development affected bear movement patterns and resource use across the Commonwealth of Massachusetts. Results We found that though bears moved more and avoided human development during crepuscular and daylight hours than at night, bears preferentially moved through human dominated areas at night. This indicates bears were mitigating the risk of human development by altering their behavior to exploit these areas when human activity is low. This behavioral shift was most prominent in the spring, when natural foods are scarce, and fall, when energetic demands are high. We also observed a high degree of inter-individual variability among our sample of bears. Bears with a higher density of houses in their home ranges (~ 75 houses/km2) displayed less avoidance of human development than more rural bears. Furthermore, bear movement models had different explanatory variables, with preference or avoidance of a variable being dependent on the individual bear. To account for this individuality in our predictive surfaces, we projected the probability of movement for each season and time of day using a spatially weighted surface centered on each bear’s home range. Conclusions We found that black bears in Massachusetts are operating in a landscape of fear and are altering their movement patterns to use developed areas when human activity is low. We also found seasonal and diel differences among individual bears in resource selection during movement. Accounting for these individual, seasonal, and diel differences when assessing movement for large mammals is especially important if predictive surfaces are to be used in identifying areas for conservation and management.

Movement Ecology↗

USGS2014

From hybrid swarms to swarms of hybrids

Science has shown that the introgression or hybridization of modern humans ( Homo sapiens ) with Neanderthals up to 40,000 YBP may have led to the swarm of modern humans on earth. However, there is little doubt that modern trade and transportation in support of the humans has continued to introduce additional species, genotypes, and hybrids to every country on the globe. We assessed the utility of species distributions modeling of genotypes to assess the risk of current and future invaders. We evaluated 93 locations of the genus Tamarix for which genetic data were available. Maxent models of habitat suitability showed that the hybrid, T. ramosissima x T. chinensis , was slightly greater than the parent taxa (AUCs > 0.83). General linear models of Africanized honey bees, a hybrid cross of Tanzanian Apis mellifera scutellata and a variety of European honey bee including A. m. ligustica , showed that the Africanized bees (AUC = 0.81) may be displacing European honey bees (AUC > 0.76) over large areas of the southwestern U.S. More important, Maxent modeling of sub-populations (A1 and A26 mitotypes based on mDNA) could be accurately modeled (AUC > 0.9), and they responded differently to environmental drivers. This suggests that rapid evolutionary change may be underway in the Africanized bees, allowing the bees to spread into new areas and extending their total range. Protecting native species and ecosystems may benefit from risk maps of harmful invasive species, hybrids, and genotypes.

Environment and Ecology Research↗

USGS2019

Natural resource condition assessment: Channel Islands National Park

The Natural Resource Condition Assessment (NRCA) Program aims to provide documentation about the current conditions of important Park natural resources through a spatially explicit, multidisciplinary synthesis of existing scientific data and knowledge. Findings from the NRCA will help Channel Islands National Park (CINP) managers to develop near-term management priorities. The central objectives of this assessment were to evaluate the current conditions and trends of key Park resources, identify important knowledge gaps, and determine key stressors and threats. Because a recent report provided an assessment of marine resources (Engle 2006), which constitute 50% of the park, this NRCA focused on terrestrial resources. For this NRCA, CINP resource managers identified that the greatest Park need was to know whether or not vegetation (primarily woody vegetation) is recovering on the Channel Islands and how this may be influencing recovery of the native terrestrial vertebrates. To address this, the CINP NRCA team evaluated the condition of island vegetation and vertebrate communities using both: 1) already available, summarized information from reports, theses, and journal articles and 2) new analyses of recently available, existing data collected on the islands. Descriptions of specific methods used to analyze available data by the NRCA team are provided within the assessment sections in Chapter 4 of this report. The Team used the Vital Signs indicators as identified by Fancy et al. (2009) for monitoring the condition of Natural Resources in U.S. National Parks. Using this framework, the focal study resource components were the five CINP islands, because these are the bio-geophysical resources of greatest interest to the CINP. Each of the islands has its own unique history of human impacts, ecological conditions, restoration efforts, and natural resource monitoring. The Team evaluated island scrub recovery by assessing changes over time in two metrics: 1) vegetation community structure (species composition, cover, and spatial extent), and 2) vertebrate abundance, relative to the reference condition of each island. The reference conditions for this NRCA were the particular island’s ecological state prior to European settlement or ranching, which represent the ecological state to which the NPS desires the park return. For each metric, the Team determined the Reference Conditions/Values, Current Condition, Trend, and Recovery Potential (based on a review of the literature and from the NRCA team’s analysis of newly available data), Threats and Stressors, Data Gaps, Overall Condition. A qualitative statement of overall current condition was created for each metric, after all data and literature relevant to the measures (i.e., vegetation and vertebrates) of each resource component (i.e., island) were reviewed and evaluated. All information gathered for this NRCA is available and managed by CINP, so that the compilation of resources would be available not only for the assessment team, but will be provided for future Park reference. Chapter 1 of this NRCA provides a descriptive background of NRCAs. Chapter 2 provides Park-wide natural resource background information, while Chapter 3 describes the overall methodological approach used in this assessment. Chapter 4 provides a detailed assessment of each island’s condition, which is then summarized Park-wide and for each island in Chapter 5. Based on both vegetation recovery and vertebrate population abundances, our assessment found Santa Cruz Island (SCI), Santa Rosa Island (SRI), San Miguel Island (SMI), and Anacapa Island (AI) to be, overall, in moderate condition and slowly recovering following the removal of non-native herbivores. The condition of Santa Barbara Island (SBI) is poor and remains in a state that is not likely to improve without assisted recovery by the Park. All islands have exhibited some level of native vegetation recovery, with most of the observed natural recovery occurring on SCI, SRI, SMI, and AI; very little recovery has occurred at present on SBI. Vegetation recovery is uneven across each island and largely limited to mesic areas, such as north-facing slopes. Areas that will likely require some assisted recovery efforts are those that are: at risk of erosion, isolated, lacking native seed banks, and plagued with high competition of non-native grasses and other invasives. Some plant communities, such as exposed upland vegetation on SRI, also have lower natural recovery potential and will likely require assisted recovery. The overall condition of the Park’s terrestrial island vertebrate species generally appears to be good and improving, with high potential for further recovery to reach pre-ranching era reference conditions. This is particularly true for vertebrates on SCI, SRI, and SMI. Although there are limited data for AI, the data that are available suggest that vertebrates on that island are in good condition and improving as well. However, the condition of SBI vertebrates is only moderate, with natural recovery potential being low, with many landbird species’ populations currently declining, extinct, or not improving. An overarching theme across the Park’s terrestrial island vertebrate populations is that many of them are in good condition because the particular animals are habitat generalists, so their population dynamics are not strongly tied to habitat conditions. However, those landbirds associated with riparian vegetation are not showing signs of recovery across the Park islands, and riparian areas appear to be one of the habitats with limited natural recovery potential on the islands. Overwhelmingly, the most critical data gap that emerged from our analysis was the lack of current vegetation maps for most of the islands (AI, SCI, SRI, SMI). The lack of this information made it difficult to assess spatial changes in island vegetation over time, and to relate those changes to observed changes in vertebrate species abundances. Therefore, we were limited in our spatial assessment of vegetation recovery for AI, SCI, SRI, and SMI, and were only able to relate the current vegetation with island landbird analysis for SBI. Another common theme across islands was the lack of information on best techniques for shrub reintroduction and recovery, and the success of invasive species removal and re-vegetation efforts. Abundance, distribution, and habitat affinities of reptiles and amphibians are poorly known for AI, SCI, SRI, and SMI, making it difficult to assess their population condition and trends, and their potential responses to shrub recovery. Mammal and landbird populations are reasonably well-sampled across most of the islands, but data are lacking for most vertebrates from AI, especially West and Middle AI where no vertebrate sampling occurs. The population status, cause of declines, and recovery needs are lacking for several landbird species across multiple islands, including loggerhead shrikes ( Lanius ludovicianus ssp.) on SCI and SRI, and Santa Cruz Island rufous crowned sparrows ( Aimophila ruficeps obscura ) on AI. Additionally, island song sparrows ( Melospiza melodia graminea ) remain extirpated on SBI and data are needed for assessing their recovery potential on the island. The potentially major threats facing the islands’ flora and fauna today are: areas of continued erosion, potential new non-native introductions, and climate change. The Park islands have already experienced warming over the last several decades due to human-induced climate change, and are projected to experience continued warming. These increasing stresses imposed by climate change may slow and inhibit natural recovery potentials for island fauna, and especially flora.

California↗