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At least 109 records · Page 6Linked to original sources
USGS2014

Investigation of the high-frequency attenuation parameter, κ (kappa), from aftershocks of the 2010 M w 8.8 Maule, Chile earthquake

The Bío Bío region of Chile experienced a vigorous aftershock sequence following the 2010 February 27 M w 8.8 Maule earthquake. The immediate aftershock sequence was captured by two temporary seismic deployments: the Quake Catcher Network Rapid Aftershock Mobilization Program (QCN RAMP) and the Incorporated Research Institutions for Seismology CHile Aftershock Mobilization Program (IRIS CHAMP). Here, we use moderate to large aftershocks ( M L ≥ 4.0) occurring between 2010 March 1 and June 30 recorded by QCN RAMP and IRIS CHAMP stations to determine the spectral decay parameter, kappa ( κ ). First, we compare waveforms and κ estimates from the lower-resolution QCN stations to the IRIS CHAMP stations to ensure the QCN data are of sufficient quality. We find that QCN stations provide reasonable estimates of κ in comparison to traditional seismic sensors and provide valuable additional observations of local ground motion variation. Using data from both deployments, we investigate the variation in κ for the region to determine if κ is influenced primarily by local geological structure, path attenuation, or source properties (e.g. magnitude, mechanism and depth). Estimates of κ for the Bío Bío region range from 0.0022 to 0.0704 s with a mean of 0.0295 s and are in good agreement with κ values previously reported for similar tectonic environments. κ correlates with epicentral distance and, to a lesser degree, with source magnitude. We find little to no correlation between the site kappa, κ 0 , and mapped geology, although we were only able to compare the data to a low-resolution map of surficial geology. These results support an increasing number of studies that suggest κ observations can be attributed to a combination of source, path and site properties; additionally, measured κ are often highly scattered making it difficult to separate the contribution from each of these factors. Thus, our results suggest that contributions from the site, path and source should be carefully considered when interpreting κ values.

Bío Bío Region↗
USGS2015

Point spread functions for earthquake source imaging: An interpretation based on seismic interferometry

Recently, various methods have been proposed and applied for earthquake source imaging, and theoretical relationships among the methods have been studied. In this study, we make a follow-up theoretical study to better understand the meanings of earthquake source imaging. For imaging problems, the point spread function (PSF) is used to describe the degree of blurring and degradation in an obtained image of a target object as a response of an imaging system. In this study, we formulate PSFs for earthquake source imaging. By calculating the PSFs, we find that waveform source inversion methods remove the effect of the PSF and are free from artifacts. However, the other source imaging methods are affected by the PSF and suffer from the effect of blurring and degradation due to the restricted distribution of receivers. Consequently, careful treatment of the effect is necessary when using the source imaging methods other than waveform inversions. Moreover, the PSF for source imaging is found to have a link with seismic interferometry with the help of the source-receiver reciprocity of Green’s functions. In particular, the PSF can be related to Green’s function for cases in which receivers are distributed so as to completely surround the sources. Furthermore, the PSF acts as a low-pass filter. Given these considerations, the PSF is quite useful for understanding the physical meaning of earthquake source imaging.

Geophysical Journal International↗
USGS2015

A comparison of methods to estimate seismic phase delays--Numerical examples for coda wave interferometry

Time-shift estimation between arrivals in two seismic traces before and after a velocity perturbation is a crucial step in many seismic methods. The accuracy of the estimated velocity perturbation location and amplitude depend on this time shift. Windowed cross correlation and trace stretching are two techniques commonly used to estimate local time shifts in seismic signals. In the work presented here, we implement Dynamic Time Warping (DTW) to estimate the warping function – a vector of local time shifts that globally minimizes the misfit between two seismic traces. We illustrate the differences of all three methods compared to one another using acoustic numerical experiments. We show that DTW is comparable to or better than the other two methods when the velocity perturbation is homogeneous and the signal-to-noise ratio is high. When the signal-to-noise ratio is low, we find that DTW and windowed cross correlation are more accurate than the stretching method. Finally, we show that the DTW algorithm has better time resolution when identifying small differences in the seismic traces for a model with an isolated velocity perturbation. These results impact current methods that utilize not only time shifts between (multiply) scattered waves, but also amplitude and decoherence measurements. DTW is a new tool that may find new applications in seismology and other geophysical methods (e.g., as a waveform inversion misfit function).

Geophysical Journal International↗
USGS2015

Stress- and structure-controlled anisotropy in a region of complex faulting—Yuha Desert, California

We examine shear velocity anisotropy in the Yuha Desert, California using aftershocks of the 2010 M7.2 El Mayor-Cucapah earthquake. The Yuha Desert is underlain by a complex network of right- and left-lateral conjugate faults, some of which experienced triggered slip during the El Mayor-Cucapah earthquake. An automated method that implements multiple measurement windows and a range of bandpass filters is used to estimate the fast direction ( ϕ ) and delay time ( δt ) of the split shear waves. We find an average ϕ oriented approximately north–south suggesting it is primarily controlled by the regional maximum compressive stress direction. However, the spatial variability in ϕ reveals that the fault structures that underlie the Yuha Desert also influence the measured splitting parameters. We infer that the northeast- and northwest-oriented ϕ reflect shear fabric subparallel to the conjugate fault structures. We do not observe a simple correlation between δt and hypocentral distance. Instead, the observed spatial variation in δt suggests that near-source variation in anisotropic strength may be equal to or more important than effects local to the station. No temporal variation in splitting parameters is observed during the 70-day period following the main shock. In this region of complex faulting, we observe a spatially variable pattern of anisotropy that is both stress- and structure-controlled. This study suggests that shear fabric can form even along short, discontinuous fault strands with minimal offset.

California↗
USGS2015

Spatial-temporal variation of low-frequency earthquake bursts near Parkfield, California

Tectonic tremor (TT) and low-frequency earthquakes (LFEs) have been found in the deeper crust of various tectonic environments globally in the last decade. The spatial-temporal behaviour of LFEs provides insight into deep fault zone processes. In this study, we examine recurrence times from a 12-yr catalogue of 88 LFE families with ∼730 000 LFEs in the vicinity of the Parkfield section of the San Andreas Fault (SAF) in central California. We apply an automatic burst detection algorithm to the LFE recurrence times to identify the clustering behaviour of LFEs (LFE bursts) in each family. We find that the burst behaviours in the northern and southern LFE groups differ. Generally, the northern group has longer burst duration but fewer LFEs per burst, while the southern group has shorter burst duration but more LFEs per burst. The southern group LFE bursts are generally more correlated than the northern group, suggesting more coherent deep fault slip and relatively simpler deep fault structure beneath the locked section of SAF. We also found that the 2004 Parkfield earthquake clearly increased the number of LFEs per burst and average burst duration for both the northern and the southern groups, with a relatively larger effect on the northern group. This could be due to the weakness of northern part of the fault, or the northwesterly rupture direction of the Parkfield earthquake.

California↗
USGS2015

Using a modified time-reverse imaging technique to locate low-frequency earthquakes on the San Andreas Fault near Cholame, California

We present a new method to locate low-frequency earthquakes (LFEs) within tectonic tremor episodes based on time-reverse imaging techniques. The modified time-reverse imaging technique presented here is the first method that locates individual LFEs within tremor episodes within 5 km uncertainty without relying on high-amplitude P-wave arrivals and that produces similar hypocentral locations to methods that locate events by stacking hundreds of LFEs without having to assume event co-location. In contrast to classic time-reverse imaging algorithms, we implement a modification to the method that searches for phase coherence over a short time period rather than identifying the maximum amplitude of a superpositioned wavefield. The method is independent of amplitude and can help constrain event origin time. The method uses individual LFE origin times, but does not rely on a priori information on LFE templates and families.We apply the method to locate 34 individual LFEs within tremor episodes that occur between 2010 and 2011 on the San Andreas Fault, near Cholame, California. Individual LFE location accuracies range from 2.6 to 5 km horizontally and 4.8 km vertically. Other methods that have been able to locate individual LFEs with accuracy of less than 5 km have mainly used large-amplitude events where a P-phase arrival can be identified. The method described here has the potential to locate a larger number of individual low-amplitude events with only the S-phase arrival. Location accuracy is controlled by the velocity model resolution and the wavelength of the dominant energy of the signal. Location results are also dependent on the number of stations used and are negligibly correlated with other factors such as the maximum gap in azimuthal coverage, source–station distance and signal-to-noise ratio.

California↗
USGS2015

Probabilistic 3-D time-lapse inversion of magnetotelluric data: Application to an enhanced geothermal system

Surface-based monitoring of mass transfer caused by injections and extractions in deep boreholes is crucial to maximize oil, gas and geothermal production. Inductive electromagnetic methods, such as magnetotellurics, are appealing for these applications due to their large penetration depths and sensitivity to changes in fluid conductivity and fracture connectivity. In this work, we propose a 3-D Markov chain Monte Carlo inversion of time-lapse magnetotelluric data to image mass transfer following a saline fluid injection. The inversion estimates the posterior probability density function of the resulting plume, and thereby quantifies model uncertainty. To decrease computation times, we base the parametrization on a reduced Legendre moment decomposition of the plume. A synthetic test shows that our methodology is effective when the electrical resistivity structure prior to the injection is well known. The centre of mass and spread of the plume are well retrieved.We then apply our inversion strategy to an injection experiment in an enhanced geothermal system at Paralana, South Australia, and compare it to a 3-D deterministic time-lapse inversion. The latter retrieves resistivity changes that are more shallow than the actual injection interval, whereas the probabilistic inversion retrieves plumes that are located at the correct depths and oriented in a preferential north-south direction. To explain the time-lapse data, the inversion requires unrealistically large resistivity changes with respect to the base model. We suggest that this is partly explained by unaccounted subsurface heterogeneities in the base model from which time-lapse changes are inferred.

Geophysical Journal International↗
USGS2015

A Green's function approach for assessing the thermal disturbance caused by drilling deep boreholes in rock or ice

A knowledge of subsurface temperatures in sedimentary basins, fault zones, volcanic environments and polar ice sheets is of interest for a wide variety of geophysical applications. However, the process of drilling deep boreholes in these environments to provide access for temperature and other measurements invariably disturbs the temperature field around a newly created borehole. Although this disturbance dissipates over time, most temperature measurements are made while the temperature field is still disturbed. Thus, the measurements must be ‘corrected’ for the drilling-disturbance effect if the undisturbed temperature field is to be determined. This paper provides compact analytical solutions for the thermal drilling disturbance based on 1-D (radial) and 2-D (radial and depth) Green's functions (GFs) in cylindrical coordinates. Solutions are developed for three types of boundary conditions (BCs) at the borehole wall: (1) prescribed temperature, (2) prescribed heat flux and (3) a prescribed convective condition. The BC at the borehole wall is allowed to vary both with depth and time. Inclusion of the depth dimension in the 2-D solution allows vertical heat-transfer effects to be quantified in situations where they are potentially important, that is, near the earth's surface, at the bottom of a well and when considering finite-drilling rates. The 2-D solution also includes a radial- and time-dependent BC at the earth's surface to assess the impact of drilling-related infrastructure (drilling pads, mud pits, permanent shelters) on the subsurface temperature field. Latent-heat effects due to the melting and subsequent refreezing of interstitial ice while drilling a borehole through ice-rich permafrost can be included in the GF solution as a moving-plane heat source (or sink) located at the solid–liquid interface. Synthetic examples are provided illustrating the 1-D and 2-D GF solutions. The flexibility of the approach allows the investigation of thermal drilling effects in rock or ice for a wide variety of drilling technologies. Numerical values for the required radial GFs G R are available through the Advanced Cooperative Arctic Data and Information Service at doi:10.5065/D64F1NS6.

Geophysical Journal International↗
USGS2015

Seismic velocities within the sedimentary succession of the Canada Basin and southern Alpha-Mendeleev Ridge, Arctic Ocean: evidence for accelerated porosity reduction?

The Canada Basin and the southern Alpha-Mendeleev ridge complex underlie a significant proportion of the Arctic Ocean, but the geology of this undrilled and mostly ice-covered frontier is poorly known. New information is encoded in seismic wide-angle reflections and refractions recorded with expendable sonobuoys between 2007 and 2011. Velocity–depth samples within the sedimentary succession are extracted from published analyses for 142 of these records obtained at irregularly spaced stations across an area of 1.9E + 06 km 2 . The samples are modelled at regional, subregional and station-specific scales using an exponential function of inverse velocity versus depth with regionally representative parameters determined through numerical regression. With this approach, smooth, non-oscillatory velocity–depth profiles can be generated for any desired location in the study area, even where the measurement density is low. Practical application is demonstrated with a map of sedimentary thickness, derived from seismic reflection horizons interpreted in the time domain and depth converted using the velocity–depth profiles for each seismic trace. A thickness of 12–13 km is present beneath both the upper Mackenzie fan and the middle slope off of Alaska, but the sedimentary prism thins more gradually outboard of the latter region. Mapping of the observed-to-predicted velocities reveals coherent geospatial trends associated with five subregions: the Mackenzie fan; the continental slopes beyond the Mackenzie fan; the abyssal plain; the southwestern Canada Basin; and, the Alpha-Mendeleev magnetic domain. Comparison of the subregional velocity–depth models with published borehole data, and interpretation of the station-specific best-fitting model parameters, suggests that sandstone is not a predominant lithology in any of the five subregions. However, the bulk sand-to-shale ratio likely increases towards the Mackenzie fan, and the model for this subregion compares favourably with borehole data for Miocene turbidites in the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The station-specific results also indicate that Quaternary sediments coarsen towards the Beaufort-Mackenzie and Banks Island margins in a manner that is consistent with the variable history of Laurentide Ice Sheet advance documented for these margins. Lithological factors do not fully account for the elevated velocity–depth trends that are associated with the southwestern Canada Basin and the Alpha-Mendeleev magnetic domain. Accelerated porosity reduction due to elevated palaeo-heat flow is inferred for these regions, which may be related to the underlying crustal types or possibly volcanic intrusion of the sedimentary succession. Beyond exploring the variation of an important physical property in the Arctic Ocean basin, this study provides comparative reference for global studies of seismic velocity, burial history, sedimentary compaction, seismic inversion and overpressure prediction, particularly in mudrock-dominated successions.

Geophysical Journal International↗
USGS2015

Non-linear resonant coupling of tsunami edge waves using stochastic earthquake source models

Non-linear resonant coupling of edge waves can occur with tsunamis generated by large-magnitude subduction zone earthquakes. Earthquake rupture zones that straddle beneath the coastline of continental margins are particularly efficient at generating tsunami edge waves. Using a stochastic model for earthquake slip, it is shown that a wide range of edge-wave modes and wavenumbers can be excited, depending on the variability of slip. If two modes are present that satisfy resonance conditions, then a third mode can gradually increase in amplitude over time, even if the earthquake did not originally excite that edge-wave mode. These three edge waves form a resonant triad that can cause unexpected variations in tsunami amplitude long after the first arrival. An M ∼ 9, 1100 km-long continental subduction zone earthquake is considered as a test case. For the least-variable slip examined involving a Gaussian random variable, the dominant resonant triad includes a high-amplitude fundamental mode wave with wavenumber associated with the along-strike dimension of rupture. The two other waves that make up this triad include subharmonic waves, one of fundamental mode and the other of mode 2 or 3. For the most variable slip examined involving a Cauchy-distributed random variable, the dominant triads involve higher wavenumbers and modes because subevents, rather than the overall rupture dimension, control the excitation of edge waves. Calculation of the resonant period for energy transfer determines which cases resonant coupling may be instrumentally observed. For low-mode triads, the maximum transfer of energy occurs approximately 20–30 wave periods after the first arrival and thus may be observed prior to the tsunami coda being completely attenuated. Therefore, under certain circumstances the necessary ingredients for resonant coupling of tsunami edge waves exist, indicating that resonant triads may be observable and implicated in late, large-amplitude tsunami arrivals.

Geophysical Journal International↗
USGS2015

Accounting for time- and space-varying changes in the gravity field to improve the network adjustment of relative-gravity data

The relative gravimeter is the primary terrestrial instrument for measuring spatially and temporally varying gravitational fields. The background noise of the instrument—that is, non-linear drift and random tares—typically requires some form of least-squares network adjustment to integrate data collected during a campaign that may take several days to weeks. Here, we present an approach to remove the change in the observed relative-gravity differences caused by hydrologic or other transient processes during a single campaign, so that the adjusted gravity values can be referenced to a single epoch. The conceptual approach is an example of coupled hydrogeophysical inversion, by which a hydrologic model is used to inform and constrain the geophysical forward model. The hydrologic model simulates the spatial variation of the rate of change of gravity as either a linear function of distance from an infiltration source, or using a 3-D numerical groundwater model. The linear function can be included in and solved for as part of the network adjustment. Alternatively, the groundwater model is used to predict the change of gravity at each station through time, from which the accumulated gravity change is calculated and removed from the data prior to the network adjustment. Data from a field experiment conducted at an artificial-recharge facility are used to verify our approach. Maximum gravity change due to hydrology (observed using a superconducting gravimeter) during the relative-gravity field campaigns was up to 2.6 μGal d −1 , each campaign was between 4 and 6 d and one month elapsed between campaigns. The maximum absolute difference in the estimated gravity change between two campaigns, two months apart, using the standard network adjustment method and the new approach, was 5.5 μGal. The maximum gravity change between the same two campaigns was 148 μGal, and spatial variation in gravity change revealed zones of preferential infiltration and areas of relatively high groundwater storage. The accommodation for spatially varying gravity change would be most important for long-duration campaigns, campaigns with very rapid changes in gravity and (or) campaigns where especially precise observed relative-gravity differences are used in the network adjustment.

Geophysical Journal International↗
USGS2016

RMT focal plane sensitivity to seismic network geometry and faulting style

Modern tectonic studies often use regional moment tensors (RMTs) to interpret the seismotectonic framework of an earthquake or earthquake sequence; however, despite extensive use, little existing work addresses RMT parameter uncertainty. Here, we quantify how network geometry and faulting style affect RMT sensitivity. We examine how data-model fits change with fault plane geometry (strike and dip) for varying station configurations. We calculate the relative data fit for incrementally varying geometries about a best-fitting solution, applying our workflow to real and synthetic seismograms for both real and hypothetical station distributions and earthquakes. Initially, we conduct purely observational tests, computing RMTs from synthetic seismograms for hypothetical earthquakes and a series of well-behaved network geometries. We then incorporate real data and station distributions from the International Maule Aftershock Deployment (IMAD), which recorded aftershocks of the 2010 M W 8.8 Maule earthquake, and a set of regional stations capturing the ongoing earthquake sequence in Oklahoma and southern Kansas. We consider RMTs computed under three scenarios: (1) real seismic records selected for high data quality; (2) synthetic seismic records with noise computed for the observed source-station pairings and (3) synthetic seismic records with noise computed for all possible station-source pairings. To assess RMT sensitivity for each test, we observe the ‘fit falloff’, which portrays how relative fit changes when strike or dip varies incrementally; we then derive the ranges of acceptable strikes and dips by identifying the span of solutions with relative fits larger than 90 per cent of the best fit. For the azimuthally incomplete IMAD network, Scenario 3 best constrains fault geometry, with average ranges of 45° and 31° for strike and dip, respectively. In Oklahoma, Scenario 3 best constrains fault dip with an average range of 46°; however, strike is best constrained by Scenario 1, with a range of 26°. We draw two main conclusions from this study. (1) Station distribution impacts our ability to constrain RMTs using waveform time-series; however, in some tectonic settings, faulting style also plays a significant role and (2) increasing station density and data quantity (both the number of stations and the number of individual channels) does not necessarily improve RMT constraint. These results may be useful when organizing future seismic deployments (e.g. by concentrating stations in alignment with anticipated nodal planes), and in computing RMTs, either by guiding a more rigorous data selection process for input data or informing variable weighting among the selected data (e.g. by eliminating the transverse component when strike-slip mechanisms are expected).

Geophysical Journal International↗
USGS2016

3-D P- and S-wave velocity structure and low-frequency earthquake locations in the Parkfield, California region

To refine the 3-D seismic velocity model in the greater Parkfield, California region, a new data set including regular earthquakes, shots, quarry blasts and low-frequency earthquakes (LFEs) was assembled. Hundreds of traces of each LFE family at two temporary arrays were stacked with time–frequency domain phase weighted stacking method to improve signal-to-noise ratio. We extend our model resolution to lower crustal depth with LFE data. Our result images not only previously identified features but also low velocity zones (LVZs) in the area around the LFEs and the lower crust beneath the southern Rinconada Fault. The former LVZ is consistent with high fluid pressure that can account for several aspects of LFE behaviour. The latter LVZ is consistent with a high conductivity zone in magnetotelluric studies. A new Vs model was developed with S picks that were obtained with a new autopicker. At shallow depth, the low Vs areas underlie the strongest shaking areas in the 2004 Parkfield earthquake. We relocate LFE families and analyse the location uncertainties with the NonLinLoc and tomoDD codes. The two methods yield similar results.

California↗
USGS2016

Contemporary deformation in the Yakima fold and thrust belt estimated with GPS

Geodetic, geologic and palaeomagnetic data reveal that Oregon (western USA) rotates clockwise at 0.3 to 1.0° Ma −1 (relative to North America) about an axis near the Idaho–Oregon–Washington border, while northeast Washington is relatively fixed. This rotation has been going on for at least 15 Ma. The Yakima fold and thrust belt (YFTB) forms the boundary between northern Oregon and central Washington where convergence of the clockwise-rotating Oregon block is apparently accommodated. North–south shortening across the YFTB has been thought to occur in a fan-like manner, increasing in rate to the west. We obtained high-accuracy, high-density geodetic GPS measurements in 2012–2014 that are used with earlier GPS measurements from the 1990s to characterize YFTB kinematics. The new results show that the deformation associated with the YFTB starts at the Blue Mountains Anticline in northern Oregon and extends north beyond the Frenchman Hills in Washington, past the epicentre of the 1872 M w 7.0 Entiat earthquake to 49°N. The north–south strain rate across the region is 2 to 3 × 10 −9 yr −1 between the volcanic arc and the eastern edge of the YFTB (241.0°E); east of there it drops to about 10 −9 yr −1 . At the eastern boundary of the YFTB, faults and earthquake activity are truncated by a north-trending, narrow zone of deformation that runs along the Pasco Basin and Moses Lake regions near 240.9°E. This zone, abutting the Department of Energy Hanford Nuclear Reservation, accommodates about 0.5 mm yr −1 of east to northeast shortening. A similar zone of N-trending transpression is seen along 239.9°E where there is a change in the strike of the Yakima folds. The modern deformation of the YFTB is about 600 km wide from south to north and internally may be controlled by pre-existing crustal structure.

Geophysical Journal International↗
USGS2016

Compartmentalization of the Coso East Flank geothermal field imaged by 3-D full-tensor MT inversion

Previous magnetotelluric (MT) studies of the high-temperature Coso geothermal system in California identified a subvertical feature of low resistivity (2–5 Ohm m) and appreciable lateral extent (>1 km) in the producing zone of the East Flank field. However, these models could not reproduce gross 3-D effects in the recorded data. We perform 3-D full-tensor inversion and retrieve a resistivity model that out-performs previous 2-D and 3-D off-diagonal models in terms of its fit to the complete 3-D MT data set as well as the degree of modelling bias. Inclusion of secondary Z xx and Z yy data components leads to a robust east-dip (60†) to the previously identified conductive East Flank reservoir feature, which correlates strongly with recently mapped surface faults, downhole well temperatures, 3-D seismic reflection data, and local microseismicity. We perform synthetic forward modelling to test the best-fit dip of this conductor using the response at a nearby MT station. We interpret the dipping conductor as a fractured and fluidized compartment, which is structurally controlled by an unmapped blind East Flank fault zone.

Coso Range↗
USGS2017

Accounting for orphaned aftershocks in the earthquake background rate

Aftershocks often occur within cascades of triggered seismicity in which each generation of aftershocks triggers an additional generation, and so on. The rate of earthquakes in any particular generation follows Omori's law, going approximately as 1/ t . This function decays rapidly, but is heavy-tailed, and aftershock sequences may persist for long times at a rate that is difficult to discriminate from background. It is likely that some apparently spontaneous earthquakes in the observational catalogue are orphaned aftershocks of long-past main shocks. To assess the relative proportion of orphaned aftershocks in the apparent background rate, I develop an extension of the ETAS model that explicitly includes the expected contribution of orphaned aftershocks to the apparent background rate. Applying this model to California, I find that the apparent background rate can be almost entirely attributed to orphaned aftershocks, depending on the assumed duration of an aftershock sequence. This implies an earthquake cascade with a branching ratio (the average number of directly triggered aftershocks per main shock) of nearly unity. In physical terms, this implies that very few earthquakes are completely isolated from the perturbing effects of other earthquakes within the fault system. Accounting for orphaned aftershocks in the ETAS model gives more accurate estimates of the true background rate, and more realistic expectations for long-term seismicity patterns.

Geophysical Journal International↗
USGS2017

FinDer v.2: Improved real-time ground-motion predictions for M2-M9 with seismic finite-source characterization

Recent studies suggest that small and large earthquakes nucleate similarly, and that they often have indistinguishable seismic waveform onsets. The characterization of earthquakes in real time, such as for earthquake early warning, therefore requires a flexible modeling approach that allows a small earthquake to become large as fault rupture evolves over time. Here, we present a modeling approach that generates a set of output parameters and uncertainty estimates that are consistent with both small/moderate (≤M6.5) and large earthquakes (>M6.5) as is required for a robust parameter interpretation and shaking forecast. Our approach treats earthquakes over the entire range of magnitudes (>M2) as finite line-source ruptures, with the dimensions of small earthquakes being very small (<100 m) and those of large earthquakes exceeding several tens to hundreds of kilometres in length. The extent of the assumed line source is estimated from the level and distribution of high-frequency peak acceleration amplitudes observed in a local seismic network. High-frequency motions are well suited for this approach, because they are mainly controlled by the distance to the rupturing fault. Observed ground-motion patterns are compared with theoretical templates modeled from empirical ground-motion prediction equations to determine the best line source and uncertainties. Our algorithm extends earlier work by Böse et al. for large finite-fault ruptures. This paper gives a detailed summary of the new algorithm and its offline performance for the 2016 M7.0 Kumamoto, Japan and 2014 M6.0 South Napa, California earthquakes, as well as its performance for about 100 real-time detected local earthquakes (2.2 ≤ M ≤ 5.1) in California. For most events, both the rupture length and the strike are well constrained within a few seconds (<10 s) of the event origin. In large earthquakes, this could allow for providing warnings of up to several tens of seconds. The algorithm could also be useful for resolving fault plane ambiguities of focal mechanisms and identification of rupturing faults for earthquakes as small as M2.5.

California↗
USGS2018

Incorporating teleseismic tomography data into models of upper mantle slab geometry

Earthquake-based models of slab geometry are limited by the distribution of earthquakes within a subducting slab, which is often heterogeneous. The fast seismic velocity signature of slabs in tomography studies is independent of the distribution of earthquakes within the slab, providing a critical constraint on slab geometry when earthquakes are absent. In order to utilize this constraint, researchers typically hand-contour images of subducting slabs in tomography models, leading to a subjective final slab model. With this paper, we present an automated procedure for extracting slab geometry from teleseismic tomography volumes that limits this subjectivity and provides constraints on the structure of aseismic segments of slabs. This procedure is designed as a complement to earthquake-based slab models rather than as a replacement, which can help to broaden the extent of existing subduction zone geometry databases.

Geophysical Journal International↗