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USGS2021

Thyroid disruption and oxidative stress in American kestrels following embryonic exposure to the alternative flame retardants, EHTBB and TBPH

Brominated flame retardant chemicals, such as 2-ethylhexyl-2,3,4,5-tetrabromobenzoate (EHTBB) (CAS #: 183658–27-7) and bis(2-ethylhexyl)-2,3,4,5-tetrabromophthalate (TBPH) (CAS #: 26040–51-7), have been detected in avian tissues and eggs from remote regions. Exposure to EHTBB and TBPH has been shown to cause oxidative stress and altered thyroid function in rodents and fish, yet no controlled studies have examined potential adverse effects of exposure in birds. Because flame retardants have been detected in wild raptors, we used American kestrels ( Falco sparverius ) as a model raptor to determine whether in ovo exposure to EHTBB or TBPH affected growth, hatching success, oxidative stress, or thyroid function. We exposed kestrel embryos to nominal concentrations (10, 50, or 100 ng g −1 egg weight) of EHTBB and TBPH via egg-injection on embryonic day 5. Embryonic exposure (~23 d) to EHTBB increased thyroid gland mass, reduced glandular colloid and total thyroxine (T4) in hatchling males and females, whereas deiodinase enzyme activity increased in males but decreased in females. Hatchlings exposed to TBPH in ovo exhibited reduced colloid and increased oxidative stress. Although exposure to EHTBB and TBPH caused several physiological effects (e.g., heart and brain mass), only exposure to 50 ng g −1 EHTBB appeared to reduce hatching success. Our results suggest these flame retardants may be hazardous for predatory birds. Future research should evaluate long-term survival and fitness consequences in birds exposed to these chemicals.

Environment International↗

USGS2026

Status assessment of peregrine falcons in North America using integrated population models

Species status assessments require an understanding of underlying population dynamics and important drivers of species demography. Large-scale assessments can be difficult due to challenges collating data obtained through different methods and different sources at multiple scales. Integrated population models (IPMs) provide a unified framework to combine multiple data sources and jointly estimate population parameters over a large spatiotemporal scale. We developed separate IPMs to estimate abundance and demographic rates for a northern (NMP) and southern (SMP) management population of peregrine falcons ( Falco peregrinus ) in North America from 2008 through 2019 (SMP) and 2020 (NMP). An outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) starting in 2021 led us to extend our modeling effort to assess its impact on these management populations by updating both IPMs using index data of population size through 2024 in a predictive framework. Survival probabilities differed drastically between first-year and after-first-year individuals in both management populations. After-first-year survival was nearly identical between the NMP and SMP, but first-year survival was lower in the SMP. Mean productivity was significantly lower in the NMP compared to the SMP, whereas the probability of breeding was similar in both management populations. Estimated total abundance for the NMP was substantially larger than the SMP, representing most of the North American peregrine population. Population growth was positive for both management populations, albeit at a slower rate for the NMP. The NMP declined from 2017 to 2018 coinciding with a drop in 2018 estimated productivity. When we extended the IPMs with updated count data through 2024, the NMP slightly declined but estimated abundance remained above levels at the start of the time series analyzed. The SMP grew at a similar rate to that predicted during the period informed by demographic data. We did not detect a continental-scale change in population size or trajectory in either management population associated with the arrival of HPAI in 2021. Further monitoring can support determination of whether the declines in the NMP were temporary, can enhance understanding of the underlying mechanisms, and can be used to guide the conservation and management of the peregrine falcon population in North America.

North America↗

USGS1992

Non-random pairing in American kestrels: mate choice versus intra-sexual competition

Natural selection may influence the arrangement of individuals into mated pairs through either inter-sexual (mate choice) or intra-sexual selection (competition). A study of the American kestrel, Falco sparverius , in northern Saskatchewan distinguished between these two processes using size as a measure of the bird's competitive ability, and condition (mass scaled to body size) as an index of quality. Both sexes arrive on the study area after spring migration in equal numbers and males establish territories. Males and females that moved among territories at the time of pair formation were not different in size or condition from those that did not move, suggesting that birds were not being displaced by superior competitors, and that females moved to encounter potential mates. Within mated pairs, there was no relationship between a bird's size and the condition of its mate for either sex as would be predicted if intra-sexual competitition explained mating patterns. Instead, there was positive assortative mating by condition, suggesting that both sexes used quality as the criterion in choosing mates. There was no correlation between the sizes of males and females in mated paird. Because there were no differences in size or condition of breeding and non-breeding males, factors other than physical attributes, such as prior experience with the area, may determine a male's success in obtaining a territory. Because females that did not obtain mates were in poorer condition than those that did, males may have rejected poor quality females. The results suggest that intra-sexual competition was not important for pair formation, and that kestrels chose mates on the basis of quality.

Animal Behaviour↗

USGS2002

Environmental contaminants in prey and tissues of the peregrine falcon in the Big Bend Region, Texas, USA.

Peregrine falcons ( Falco peregrinus ) have been recorded nesting in Big Bend National Park, Texas, USA and other areas of the Chihuahuan Desert since the early 1900s. From 1993 to 1996, peregrine falcon productivity rates were very low and coincided with periods of low rainfall. However, low productivity also was suspected to be caused by environmental contaminants. To evaluate potential impacts of contaminants on peregrine falcon populations, likely avian and bat prey species were collected during 1994 and 1997 breeding seasons in selected regions of western Texas, primarily in Big Bend National Park. Tissues of three peregrine falcons found injured or dead and feathers of one live fledgling also were analyzed. Overall, mean concentrations of DDE [1,1-dichloro-2,2-bis(p-chlorophenyl)ethylene], a metabolite of DDT [1,1,1-trichloro-2,2-bis(p-chlorophenyl)ethane], were low in all prey species except for northern rough-winged swallows ( Stelgidopteryx serripennis , mean = 5.1 microg/g ww). Concentrations of mercury and selenium were elevated in some species, up to 2.5 microg/g dw, and 15 microg/g dw, respectively, which upon consumption could seriously affect reproduction of top predators. DDE levels near 5 microg/g ww were detected in carcass of one peregrine falcon found dead but the cause of death was unknown. Mercury, selenium, and DDE to some extent, may be contributing to low reproductive rates of peregrine falcons in the Big Bend region.

Texas↗

USGS1997

Clarification of effects of DDE on shell thickness, size, mass, and shape of avian eggs

Moriarty et al. (1986) used field data to conclude that DDE decreased the size or altered the shape of avian eggs; therefore, they postulated that decreased eggshell thickness was a secondary effect because, as a general rule, thickness and egg size are positively correlated. To further test this relationship, the present authors analyzed data from eggs of captive American kestrels. Falco sparverius given DDT- or DDE-contaminated or clean diets and from wild brown pelicans Pelecanus occidentalis collected both before (pre-1946) and after (post-1945) DDT was introduced into the environment. Pertinent data from other field and laboratory studies were also summarized. DDE was not related to and did not affect size, mass, or shape of eggs of the brown pelican or American kestrel; but the relationship of DDE to eggshell thinning held true. Size and shape of eggs of brown pelicans from the post-1945 era and those of kestrels, on DDT-contaminated diets showed some significant, but inconsistent, changes compared to brown pelican data from the pre-1946 era or kestrels on clean diets. In contrast, nearly all samples of eggs of experimental kestrels given DDT-contaminated diets and those of wild brown pelicans from the post-1945 era exhibited significant eggshell thinning. Pertinent experimental studies with other sensitive avian species indicated no effects of DDE on the size or shape of eggs, even though the high dietary concentrations caused extreme eggshell thinning and mortality of some adult mallards (Anas platyrhynchos) in one study. These findings essentially controvert the argument that decreased eggshell thickness is a secondary effect resulting from the primary effect of DDE-induced changes in the size or shape of eggs.

Environmental Pollution↗

USGS1998

Possible mechanisms for sensitivity to organophosphorus and carbamate insecticides in eastern screech-owls and American kestrels

Effects of a single dietary exposure to fenthion and carbofuran on the survival, feeding behavior and brain ChE activity of eastern screech-owls, Otus asio and American kestrels, Falco sparverius , were evaluated. Birds were exposed to fenthion (23.6–189.0 ppm) or carbofuran (31.7–253.6 ppm) via meatballs. Carbofuran-exposed owls ate either ≤10% or ≥80% of the meatball whereas all kestrels ate ≤10% of the meatball before exhibiting acute signs of toxicity. Fenthion-exposed owls and kestrels displayed a wide spectrum of meatball consumption (<10–100%). Significant brain ChE inhibition was observed in dead and surviving kestrels exposed to fenthion and carbofuran and dead owls exposed to fenthion ( P <0.0001). Brain ChE activity of owls exposed to carbofuran that survived was not different from that of controls ( P =0.25). Data suggest: (1) slow feeding on a carbamate-contaminated item may provide limited protection from the toxicity of the chemical at certain rates of exposure; (2) the degree of ChE inhibition at neuromuscular junctions may be critical in determining the sensitivity of a species to a carbamate insecticide; (3) sensitivity may be a function of the ChE affinity for the carbamate inhibitor; and (4) the importance of neuromuscular junction ChE depression in determining the sensitivity of an animal may be species-specific.

Comparative Biochemistry and Physiology, Part C: P↗

USGS2015

Investigating endocrine and physiological parameters of captive American kestrels exposed by diet to selected organophosphate flame retardants

Organophosphate triesters are high production volume additive flame retardants (OPFRs) and plasticizers. Shown to accumulate in abiotic and biotic environmental compartments, little is known about the risks they pose. Captive adult male American kestrels (Falco sparverius) were fed the same dose (22 ng OPFR/g kestrel/d) daily (21 d) of tris(2- butoxyethyl) phosphate (TBOEP), tris(2-chloroethyl) phosphate (TCEP), tris(2-chloroisopropyl) phosphate (TCIPP), or tris(1,2-dichloro-2-propyl) phosphate (TDCIPP). Concentrations were undetected in tissues (renal, hepatic), suggesting rapid metabolism. There were no changes in glutathione status, indicators of hepatic oxidative status, or the cholinergic system (i.e., cerebrum, plasma cholinesterases; cerebrum muscarinic, nicotinic receptors). Modest changes occurred in hepatocyte integrity and function (clinical chemistry). Significant effects on plasma free triiodothyronine (FT3) concentrations occurred with exposure to TBOEP, TCEP, TCIPP, and TDCIPP; TBOEP and TCEP had additional overall effects on free thyroxine (FT4), whereas TDCIPP also influenced total thyroxine (TT4). Relative increases (32%−96%) in circulating FT3, TT3, FT4, and/or TT4 were variable with each OPFR at 7 d exposure, but limited thereafter, which was likely maintained through decreased thyroid gland activity and increased hepatic deiodinase activity. The observed physiological and endocrine effects occurred at environmentally relevant concentrations and suggest parent OPFRs or metabolites may have been present despite rapid degradation.

Environmental Science & Technology↗

USGS2016

Amino acid specific stable nitrogen isotope values in avian tissues: Insights from captive American kestrels and wild herring gulls

Through laboratory and field studies, the utility of amino acid compound-specific nitrogen isotope analysis (AA-CSIA) in avian studies is investigated. Captive American kestrels ( Falco sparverius ) were fed an isotopically characterized diet and patterns in δ 15 N values of amino acids (AAs) were compared to those in their tissues (muscle and red blood cells) and food. Based upon nitrogen isotope discrimination between diet and kestrel tissues, AAs could mostly be categorized as source AAs (retaining baseline δ 15 N values) and trophic AAs (showing 15 N enrichment). Trophic discrimination factors based upon the source (phenylalanine, Phe) and trophic (glutamic acid, Glu) AAs were 4.1 (muscle) and 5.4 (red blood cells), lower than those reported for metazoan invertebrates. In a field study involving omnivorous herring gulls ( Larus argentatus smithsonianus ), egg AA isotopic patterns largely retained those observed in the laying female’s tissues (muscle, red blood cells, and liver). Realistic estimates of gull trophic position were obtained using bird Glu and Phe δ 15 N values combined with β values (difference in Glu and Phe δ 15 N in primary producers) for aquatic and terrestrial food webs. Egg fatty acids were used to weight β values for proportions of aquatic and terrestrial food in gull diets. This novel approach can be applied to generalist species that feed across ecosystem boundaries.

Environmental Science & Technology↗

USGS1997

Secondary poisoning of kestrels by white phosphorus

Since 1982, extensive waterfowl mortality due to white phosphorous (P4) has been observed at Eagle River Flats, a tidal marsh near Anchorage, Alaska. Ducks and swans that ingest P4 pellets become lethargic and may display severe convulsions. Intoxicated waterfowl attract raptors and gulls that feed on dead or dying birds. To determine if avian predators can be affected by secondary poisoning, we fed American kestrels (Falco sparverius) 10-day-old domestic chickens that had been dosed with white phosphorus. Eight of 15 kestrels fed intact chicks with a pellet of P4 implanted in their crops died within seven days. Three of 15 kestrels fed chicks that had their upper digestive tracts removed to eliminate any pellets of white phosphorus also died. Haematocrit and haemoglobin in kestrels decreased whereas lactate dehydrogenase-L, glucose, and alanine aminotransferase levels in plasma increased with exposure to contaminated chicks. Histological examination of liver and kidneys showed that the incidence and severity of lesions increased when kestrels were fed contaminated chicks. White phosphorus residues were measurable in 87% of the kestrels dying in the study and 20% of the survivors. This study shows that raptors can become intoxicated either by ingesting portions of digestive tracts containing white phosphorus pellets or by consuming tissues of P4-contaminated prey .

Ecotoxicology↗

USGS2009

Parathion accumulation in cricket frogs and its effect on American kestrels

Adult cricket frogs (Acris crepitans) were held individually for 96 h in static systems containing initial concentrations of either 0, 0.1, 1.0, or 10 ppm parathion in 10 ml water. Mortality of cricket frogs was directly related to the parathion concentration in the water. Frogs from the 1.0- and 10-ppm groups accumulated 0.08 and 4.6 ppm parathion, respectively. One of four American kestrels (Falco sparverius) fed frogs from the 10-ppm group died from organophosphate poisoning less than 3 h after consuming five frogs. Mortality did not occur in kestrels fed frogs from the other treatment groups, which represented more environmentally realistic levels of exposure.

Journal of Toxicology and Environmental Health↗

USGS2009

Developmental toxicity of diphenyl ether herbicides in nestling American kestrels

Beginning the day after hatching, American kestrel (Falco sparverius) nestlings were orally dosed for 10 consecutive days with 5 microliters/g of corn oil (controls) or one of the diphenyl ether herbicides (nitrofen, bifenox, or oxyfluorfen) at concentrations of 10, 50, 250, or 500 mg/kg in corn oil. At 500 mg/kg, nitrofen resulted in complete nestling mortality, bifenox in high (66%) mortality, and oxyfluorfen in no mortality. Nitrofen at 250 mg/kg reduced nestling growth as reflected by decreased body weight, crownrump length, and bone lengths including humerus, radiusulna, femur, and tibiotarsus. Bifenox at 250 mg/kg had less effect on growth than nitrofen, but crownrump, humerus, radiusulna, and femur were significantly shorter than controls. Liver weight as a percent of body weight increased with 50 and 250 mg/kg nitrofen. Other manifestations of impending hepatotoxicity following nitrofen ingestion included increased hepatic GSH peroxidase activity in all nitrofentreated groups, and increased plasma enzyme activities for ALT, AST, and LDHL in the 250mg/kg group. Bifenox ingestion resulted in increased hepatic GSH peroxidase activity in the 50and 250mg/kg groups. Nitrofen exposure also resulted in an increase in total plasma thyroxine (T4) concentration. These findings suggest that altricial nestlings are more sensitive to diphenyl ether herbicides than young or adult birds of precocial species.

Journal of Toxicology and Environmental Health↗

USGS1984

Age-related mortality in a wintering population of Dunlin

Despite considerable evidence that juvenile shorebirds experience significantly higher annual mortality rates than adults, identification and quantification of the sources of mortality have received little attention. We found that the proportion of juvenile Dunlins ( Calidris alpina ) in the kills of a Merlin ( Falco columbarius ) one winter at Bolinas Lagoon, California was greater than the proportion of juveniles in the lagoon's winter population. This is evidence that raptor predation may be one of the factors contributing to the age differences in annual mortality rates of shorebirds. We suggest that the greater vulnerability of juveniles to predation by the Merlin may be caused by age-related differences in Dunlin flocking behavior.

California↗

USGS2004

Summer diet of the Peregrine Falcon in faunistically rich and poor zones of Arizona analyzed with capture-recapture modeling

We collected prey remains from 25 Peregrine Falcon ( Falco peregrinus ) territories across Arizona from 1977 to 1988 yielding 58 eyrie-years of data. Along with 793 individual birds (107 species and six additional genera), we found seven mammals and nine insects. In addition, two nestling peregrines were consumed. We found a larger dependence upon White-throated Swifts ( Aeronautes saxatalis ) and birds on migration in northern Arizona, while in southeastern and central Arizona average prey mass was greater and columbiforms formed the largest dietary component. In northern, central, and southeastern Arizona, 74, 66, and 56 avian prey taxa, respectively, were recorded. We used capture-recapture modeling to estimate totals of 111 ± 9.5, 113 ± 10.5, and 86 ± 7.9 (SE) avian taxa taken in these same three areas. These values are counterintuitive inasmuch as the southeast has the richest avifauna. For the entire study area, 156 ± 9.3 avian taxa were estimated to be taken by peregrines.

Arizona↗

USGS2005

Long-range movements and breeding dispersal of Prairie Falcons from southwest Idaho

From 1999–2003, we tracked movements of adult female Prairie Falcons ( Falco mexicanus ) using satellite telemetry to characterize long-range movement patterns and breeding dispersal. We radio marked 40 falcons from April–May on their nesting grounds in the Snake River Birds of Prey National Conservation Area in southwest Idaho. All falcons with functioning transmitters left the Snake River Canyon from late June through mid-July. Most headed northeast across the Continental Divide to summering areas in Montana, Alberta, Saskatchewan, and the Dakotas. Prairie Falcons stayed at their northern summer areas for 1–4 months before heading to the southern Great Plains or to southwest Idaho. The Great Plains was a key migration pathway. Important wintering areas included the Texas Panhandle and southwest Idaho. Most falcons completed their seasonal migrations within 2 weeks. Use of widely separated nesting, summering, and wintering areas appears to be a strategy to exploit seasonally abundant prey resources. Most falcons had three or fewer use areas during the nonbreeding season, and falcons showed a high degree of fidelity to their use areas during each season. At least 21 falcons returned to nest within 2.5 km of where they nested in the previous year, but one falcon moved to a new nesting area 124 km south of her previous breeding area. Prairie Falcon movements suggest large-scale connectivity of grassland and shrubsteppe landscapes throughout western North America. Conservation of Prairie Falcons must be an international effort that considers habitats used during both nesting and non-nesting seasons.

Idaho↗

USGS2019

Elevated heterozygosity in adults relative to juveniles provides evidence of viability selection on eagles and falcons

Viability selection yields adult populations that are more genetically variable than those of juveniles, producing a positive correlation between heterozygosity and survival. Viability selection could be the result of decreased heterozygosity across many loci in inbred individuals and a subsequent decrease in survivorship resulting from the expression of the deleterious alleles. Alternatively, locus-specific differences in genetic variability between adults and juveniles may be driven by forms of balancing selection, including heterozygote advantage, frequency-dependent selection, or selection across temporal and spatial scales. We use a pooled-sequencing approach to compare genome-wide and locus-specific genetic variability between 74 golden eagle ( Aquila chrysaetos ), 62 imperial eagle ( Aquila heliaca ), and 69 prairie falcon ( Falco mexicanus ) juveniles and adults. Although genome-wide genetic variability is comparable between juvenile and adult golden eagles and prairie falcons, imperial eagle adults are significantly more heterozygous than juveniles. This evidence of viability selection may stem from a relatively smaller imperial eagle effective population size and potentially greater genetic load. We additionally identify ~2000 single-nucleotide polymorphisms across the 3 species with extreme differences in heterozygosity between juveniles and adults. Many of these markers are associated with genes implicated in immune function or olfaction. These loci represent potential targets for studies of how heterozygote advantage, frequency-dependent selection, and selection over spatial and temporal scales influence survivorship in avian species. Overall, our genome-wide data extend previous studies that used allozyme or microsatellite markers and indicate that viability selection may be a more common evolutionary phenomenon than often appreciated.

Journal of Heredity↗

USGS2000

Species variation in osmotic, cryoprotectant, and cooling rate tolerance in poultry, eagle, and Peregrine Falcon spermatozoa

Potential factors influencing spermatozoa survival to cryopreservation and thawing were analyzed across a range of the following avian species: domestic chicken ( Gallus domesticus ), domestic turkey ( Meleagris gallopavo ), golden eagle ( Aquila chrysaetos ), Bonelli’s eagle ( Hieraaetus fasciatus ), imperial eagle ( Aquila adalberti ), and peregrine falcon ( Falco peregrinus ). Studies focused on spermatozoa tolerance to the following: 1) osmotic stress, 2) different extracellular concentrations of the cryoprotectant dimethylacetamide (DMA), 3) equilibration times of 1 versus 4 h, 4) equilibration temperature of 4 versus 21°C, and 5) rapid versus slow cooling before cryopreservation and standard thawing. Sperm viability was assessed with the live/dead stain (SYBR-14/propidium iodine). Sperm viability at osmolalities ≥800 mOsm was higher ( P < 0.05) in raptor than poultry semen. Return to isotonicity after exposure to hypertonicity (3000 mOsm) decreased ( P < 0.05) number of viable spermatozoa in chicken, turkey, and golden and Bonelli’s eagle spermatozoa but not in imperial eagle or peregrine falcon spermatozoa. Differences were found in spermatozoa resistance to hypotonic conditions, with eagle species demonstrating the most tolerance. Semen, equilibrated for 1 h (4°C) in diluent containing DMA (≥2.06 M), experienced decreased ( P < 0.05) spermatozoa survival in all species, except the golden eagle and peregrine falcon. Number of surviving spermatozoa diminished progressively with increasing DMA concentrations in all species. Increased equilibration temperature (from 4 to 21°C) markedly reduced ( P < 0.05) spermatozoa survival in all species except the Bonelli’s eagle and turkey. Rapid cooling was detrimental ( P < 0.05) to spermatozoa from all species except the imperial eagle and the chicken. These results demonstrate that avian spermatozoa differ remarkably in response to osmotic changes, DMA concentrations, equilibration time, temperature, and survival after fast or slow freezing. These differences emphasize the need for species-specific studies in the development and enhancement of assisted breeding for poultry and endangered species.

Biology of Reproduction↗

USGS2013

Modelling interactions of toxicants and density dependence in wildlife populations

1. A major challenge in the conservation of threatened and endangered species is to predict population decline and design appropriate recovery measures. However, anthropogenic impacts on wildlife populations are notoriously difficult to predict due to potentially nonlinear responses and interactions with natural ecological processes like density dependence. 2. Here, we incorporated both density dependence and anthropogenic stressors in a stage-based matrix population model and parameterized it for a density-dependent population of peregrine falcons Falco peregrinus exposed to two anthropogenic toxicants [dichlorodiphenyldichloroethylene (DDE) and polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs)]. Log-logistic exposure–response relationships were used to translate toxicant concentrations in peregrine falcon eggs to effects on fecundity. Density dependence was modelled as the probability of a nonbreeding bird acquiring a breeding territory as a function of the current number of breeders. 3. The equilibrium size of the population, as represented by the number of breeders, responded nonlinearly to increasing toxicant concentrations, showing a gradual decrease followed by a relatively steep decline. Initially, toxicant-induced reductions in population size were mitigated by an alleviation of the density limitation, that is, an increasing probability of territory acquisition. Once population density was no longer limiting, the toxicant impacts were no longer buffered by an increasing proportion of nonbreeders shifting to the breeding stage, resulting in a strong decrease in the equilibrium number of breeders. 4. Median critical exposure concentrations, that is, median toxicant concentrations in eggs corresponding with an equilibrium population size of zero, were 33 and 46 μg g −1 fresh weight for DDE and PBDEs, respectively. 5. Synthesis and applications. Our modelling results showed that particular life stages of a density-limited population may be relatively insensitive to toxicant impacts until a critical threshold is crossed. In our study population, toxicant-induced changes were observed in the equilibrium number of nonbreeding rather than breeding birds, suggesting that monitoring efforts including both life stages are needed to timely detect population declines. Further, by combining quantitative exposure–response relationships with a wildlife demographic model, we provided a method to quantify critical toxicant thresholds for wildlife population persistence.

California↗

USGS2026

Constructed value of information with iterative scoring and parametric uncertainty to identify management-relevant research priorities for a declining raptor species

Constructed value of information (CVoI) is an expert elicitation decision-analytic tool used to prioritize sources of uncertainty based on their potential to improve decision outcomes if resolved. Despite increased application of CVoI, the robustness of CVoI prioritization of sources of uncertainty relative to differences in expert elicitation and scoring methods has not been evaluated. We engaged a group of species experts in a decision-analytic process to elicit uncertainties, framed as alternative hypotheses, about current population declines of the American kestrel ( Falco sparverius ) in the United States. Participants scored 13 hypotheses across 3 CVoI criteria, which are defined as constructed scales. Rather than experts selecting a single score per criterion, we used a likelihood point method to incorporate parametric uncertainty in the scoring process, in which experts were given 100 points to distribute across possible score categories within the criterion-specific constructed scale. Experts provided scores over 2 scoring rounds, with an opportunity to review and discuss initial scores between rounds. We used a Shannon entropy calculation to quantify how evenly participants allotted their points. We used simulation to evaluate the robustness of our prioritization results relative to a scoring method in which participants selected a single score category for each criterion. Participants often spread their points across 2 adjacent scores, reflecting parametric uncertainty. For one third of the hypothesis-scoring round combinations, the prioritization results differed in approximately 50% of simulations. The highest scoring hypotheses related to how the use of artificial versus natural nest cavities affects fecundity or survival, whether winter roosting sites are a limiting factor for population growth, and whether gamebird habitat management may benefit kestrel populations. Our CVoI prioritization framework can be used to develop collaborative research that is directly relevant to a management decision and is an advance in eliciting more representative expert beliefs.

Conservation Biology↗