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Temporal variability in stream fish assemblage metrics and implications for long-term monitoring

High natural variability in the condition of fish communities in headwater streams complicates detection of long-term responses to changes in water quality. As a result, little is known about the impacts and recovery of fishes from acid deposition in streams of New York. Twenty-one fish metrics from annual electrofishing surveys at 13 streams sites in the Catskill and Adirondack mountains were assessed to quantify temporal variability and identify effective monitoring strategies for detecting change in headwater stream fish assemblages. Metrics included the density and biomass of Brook Trout populations and entire fish communities using length-, area-, and effort-based standardization techniques. Linear mixed models were used to estimate changes in coefficients of variation (CV) for different classes of metrics and standardization techniques, and a simulation-based power analysis was conducted to assess differences in statistical power for each metric with various sampling designs. Metric CV varied significantly as a result of standardization technique and whether metrics were calculated for the entire community or Brook Trout only. The sampling effort necessary to detect a 30% change with power of 0.80 was strongly correlated with CV (R 2 = 0.77). The number of sampling events at the 13 sites needed to detect this change ranged from 1 to >60, suggesting metric selection can strongly affect statistical power and the resources necessary to detect change. Thus, metric selection is a complex decision that must consider study objectives and biological relevance, in addition to natural variability and statistical power. However, adequate statistical power was achieved at relatively small sample sizes using certain metrics, indicating that fish communities in headwater streams can be a valuable component of long-term assessments of acidification impacts and recovery.

New York

Evaluating acid-aluminum stress in streams of the Northeastern U.S. at watershed, fish community and physiological scales

In spite of overall improvements in air and water quality, biological stress from low pH and high concentrations of inorganic aluminum continue to impact fish and fish habitat in northeastern North America, with independent and interactive effects on individuals, populations and communities. Integrative indicators can therefore be useful in monitoring both impact and recovery across multiple scales. Using coupled water chemistry (pH, conductivity, and base cation and inorganic aluminum concentration), geographic (site elevation and watershed area) and biological (fish diversity, fish abundance, gill aluminum concentration and gill physiology) data, we developed an integrated indicator of acid aluminum stress across the White and Green mountains in central New England, USA. As has been established in a number of previous studies, preliminary analysis clearly indicated that across all sites, inorganic aluminum concentration was consistently greatest during the spring season. Structural Equation modelling (SEM) revealed that toxic conditions (concurrent low pH and high concentrations of inorganic aluminum) were well summarized with an integrated toxicity score, related to both base cation concentrations and elevation, with sites at higher elevations more likely to experience toxic conditions as well as low base cation concentrations. As hypothesized, fish diversity and abundance were negatively related to toxicity score. In spite of considerable variation among individuals, gill aluminum was positively related to toxicity score for both Atlantic salmon and brook trout. Observed elevated gill aluminum levels associated with reduced gill metabolic activity in Atlantic salmon smolts from impacted systems likely result in impaired osmoregulatory function and seawater tolerance. Overall, our results suggest that the integrated toxicity score metric is strongly associated with a syndrome of physiological stress, reduced abundance, and low species diversity for stream fishes in New England and can likely serve as a reliable indicator of continued impairment or recovery of acid-aluminum vulnerable systems in this ecoregion.

New Hampshire, Vermont

Trace element contamination in feather and tissue samples from Anna’s hummingbirds

Trace element contamination (17 elements; Be, V, Cr, Mn, Fe, Co, Ni, Cu, Zn, As, Se, Mo, Cd, Ba, Hg, Tl, and Pb) of live (feather samples only) and deceased (feather and tissue samples) Anna's hummingbirds ( Calypte anna ) was evaluated. Samples were analyzed using inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometry (ICP-MS; 17 elements) and atomic absorption spectrophotometry (Hg only). Mean plus one standard deviation (SD) was considered the benchmark, and concentrations above the mean + 1 SD were considered elevated above normal. Contour feathers were sampled from live birds of varying age, sex, and California locations. In order to reduce thermal impacts, minimal feathers were taken from live birds, therefore a novel method was developed for preparation of low mass feather samples for ICP-MS analysis. The study found that the novel feather preparation method enabled small mass feather samples to be analyzed for trace elements using ICP-MS. For feather samples from live birds, all trace elements, with the exception of beryllium, had concentrations above the mean + 1 SD. Important risk factors for elevated trace element concentrations in feathers of live birds were age for iron, zinc, and arsenic, and location for iron, manganese, zinc, and selenium. For samples from deceased birds, ICP-MS results from body and tail feathers were correlated for Fe, Zn, and Pb, and feather concentrations were correlated with renal (Fe, Zn, Pb) or hepatic (Hg) tissue concentrations. Results for AA spectrophotometry analyzed samples from deceased birds further supported the ICP-MS findings where a strong correlation between mercury concentrations in feather and tissue (pectoral muscle) samples was found. These study results support that sampling feathers from live free-ranging hummingbirds might be a useful, non-lethal sampling method for evaluating trace element exposure and provides a sampling alternative since their small body size limits traditional sampling of blood and tissues. The results from this study provide a benchmark for the distribution of trace element concentrations in feather and tissue samples from hummingbirds and suggests a reference mark for exceeding normal. Lastly, pollinating avian species are minimally represented in the literature as bioindicators for environmental trace element contamination. Given that trace elements can move through food chains by a variety of routes, our study indicates that hummingbirds are possible bioindicators of environmental trace element contamination.

Ecological Indicators

Changes in stream chemistry and biology in response to reduced levels of acid deposition during 1987-2003 in the Neversink River Basin, Catskill Mountains

Atmospheric acid deposition has decreased in the northeastern United States since the 1970s, resulting in modest increases in pH, acid-neutralizing capacity (ANC), and decreases in inorganic monomeric aluminum (AlIM) concentrations since stream chemistry monitoring began in the 1980s in the acid-sensitive upper Neversink River basin in the Catskill Mountains of New York. Stream pH has increased by 0.01 units/year during 1987-2003 at three sites in the Neversink basin as determined by Seasonal Kendall trend analysis. In light of this observed decrease in stream acidity, we sampled 12 stream sites within the Neversink River watershed for water chemistry, macroinvertebrates, fish, and periphytic diatoms in 2003 to compare with a similar data set collected in 1987. Metrics and indices that reflect sensitivity to stream acidity were developed with these biological data to determine whether changes in stream biota over the intervening 16 years parallel those of stream chemistry. Statistical comparisons of data on stream chemistry and an acid biological assessment profile (Acid BAP) derived from invertebrate data showed no significant differences between the two years. For pH and ANC, however, values in 2003 were generally lower than those in 1987; this difference likely resulted from higher streamflow in summer 2003. Despite these likely flow-induced changes in summer 2003, an ordination and cluster analysis of macroinvertebrate taxa based on the Acid BAP indicated that the most acidic sites in the upstream half of the East Branch Neversink River form a statistically significant separate cluster consistent with less acidic stream conditions. This analysis is consistent with limited recovery of invertebrate species in the most acidic reaches of the river, but will require additional improvement in stream chemistry before a stronger conclusion can be drawn. Data on the fish and periphytic diatom communities in 2003 indicate that slimy sculpin had not extended their habitat to upstream reaches that previously were devoid of this acid-intolerant species in 1987; a diatom acid-tolerance index indicates continued high-acid impact throughout most of the East Branch and headwaters of the West Branch Neversink River. ?? 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Ecological Indicators

Counting the chorus: A bioacoustic indicator of population density

Passive acoustic monitoring has grown in utility for tracking wildlife populations, although challenges remain when using acoustic detections to monitor population size and density. Distance sampling is considered the ‘gold standard’ for estimating animal densities but has several important limitations, especially for rare, cryptic, and high-density species. Here, we test the performance of a simple, quickly derived bioacoustic indicator for monitoring population density: call density—the proportion of recording samples containing vocalizations. Over three years, we collected synchronized bioacoustic and point-transect distance sampling data for eight forest bird species native to the Island of Hawai‘i, including four endangered species, across diverse ecosystems ranging from subalpine dry woodland to montane rainforest. The species studied exhibit varied population structures, from gregarious flocks to small, territorial family groups. Our results revealed significant, strong correlations between call density and distance sampling-based animal density estimates for all species, demonstrating that call density is a reliable indicator of animal density that can be used independently or in combination with traditional monitoring methods. Our analysis uses a fixed amount of manual validation of machine learning classifier output examples, without requiring prohibitively high classifier performance, and is robust to variation in vocal activity rates across time and space, making it both adaptable and scalable. This approach could enhance passive acoustic monitoring by providing a more sensitive population health indicator than commonly used detection/nondetection methods, facilitating prompt conservation and management decisions, particularly for species that are difficult to monitor with distance sampling.

Hawaii

Comparison of bird community indices for riparian restoration planning and monitoring

The use of a bird community index that characterizes ecosystem integrity is very attractive to conservation planners and habitat managers, particularly in the absence of any single focal species. In riparian areas of the western USA, several attempts at arriving at a community index signifying a functioning riparian bird community have been made previously, mostly resorting to expert opinions or national conservation rankings for species weights. Because extensive local and regional bird monitoring data were available for Nevada, we were able to develop three different indices that were derived empirically, rather than from expert opinion. We formally examined the use of three species weighting schemes in comparison with simple species richness, using different definitions of riparian species assemblage size, for the purpose of predicting community response to changes in vegetation structure from riparian restoration. For the three indices, species were weighted according to the following criteria: (1) the degree of riparian habitat specialization based on regional data, (2) the relative conservation ranking of landbird species, and (3) the degree to which a species is under-represented compared to the regional species pool for riparian areas. To evaluate the usefulness of these indices for habitat restoration planning and monitoring, we modeled them using habitat variables that are expected to respond to riparian restoration efforts, using data from 64 sampling sites in the Walker River Basin in Nevada and California. We found that none of the species-weighting schemes performed any better as an index for evaluating overall habitat condition than using species richness alone as a community index. Based on our findings, the use of a fairly complete list of 30–35 riparian specialists appears to be the best indicator group for predicting the response of bird communities to the restoration of riparian vegetation.

Nevada

Mapping technological and biophysical capacities of watersheds to regulate floods

Flood regulation is a widely valued and studied service provided by watersheds. Flood regulation benefits people directly by decreasing the socio-economic costs of flooding and indirectly by its positive impacts on cultural (e.g., fishing) and provisioning (e.g., water supply) ecosystem services. Like other regulating ecosystem services (e.g., pollination, water purification), flood regulation is often enhanced or replaced by technology, but the relative efficacy of natural versus technological features in controlling floods has scarcely been examined. In an effort to assess flood regulation capacity for selected urban watersheds in the southeastern United States, we: (1) used long-term flood records to assess relative influence of technological and biophysical indicators on flood magnitude and duration, (2) compared the widely used runoff curve number (RCN) approach for assessing the biophysical capacity to regulate floods to an alternative approach that acknowledges land cover and soil properties separately, and (3) mapped technological and biophysical flood regulation capacities based on indicator importance-values derived for flood magnitude and duration. We found that watersheds with high biophysical (via the alternative approach) and technological capacities lengthened the duration and lowered the peak of floods. We found the RCN approach yielded results opposite that expected, possibly because it confounds soil and land cover processes, particularly in urban landscapes, while our alternative approach coherently separates these processes. Mapping biophysical (via the alternative approach) and technological capacities revealed great differences among watersheds. Our study improves on previous mapping of flood regulation by (1) incorporating technological capacity, (2) providing high spatial resolution (i.e., 10-m pixel) maps of watershed capacities, and (3) deriving importance-values for selected landscape indicators. By accounting for technology that enhances or replaces natural flood regulation, our approach enables watershed managers to make more informed choices in their flood-control investments.

Ecological Indicators

Applying concepts of general resilience to large river ecosystems: A case study from the Upper Mississippi and Illinois rivers

Large floodplain-river ecosystems are often highly modified to provide services that society desires, yet these modifications can limit an ecosystem’s ability to adapt to changing conditions. The adaptive capacity of an ecosystem, its general resilience, is a conceptual framework for considering how a system will respond to such changes. We sought to apply aspects of three general resilience principles (diversity and redundancy, connectivity, and controlling variables) to our understanding of floodplain-river ecosystem structure and function. We demonstrate the applicability of this approach in a case study of the Upper Mississippi River System (UMRS). In doing so, we developed ten indicators that highlight important structural and functional aspects of this floodplain-river ecosystem, and likely underlie the capacity of large rivers to cope with environmental change and disturbance. We developed diversity and redundancy indicators for aquatic habitats, patterns of floodplain inundation, and fish communities. Connectivity indicators included metrics of longitudinal and lateral connections. Controlling variable indicators included deviations from historic water surface elevation fluctuations, water clarity, nutrient concentrations, and aquatic invasive species. This set of indicators provides a simple description of the adaptive capacity of four distinct reaches of the UMRS: Upper Impounded, Lower Impounded, Unimpounded Reaches of the Upper Mississippi River and the entire Illinois River. High aquatic habitat diversity and redundancy, fish functional diversity and redundancy, and water clarity, and the scarcity of invasive fish species are all factors that likely contribute to the high general resilience of the Upper Impounded Reach. However, the limited longitudinal connectivity and establishment of a minimum water level for navigation are factors that may inhibit the general resilience of this reach. In the Lower Impounded Reach, there is high within-reach variability for individual indicators such as aquatic habitat diversity, fish functional diversity and redundancy, and longitudinal and lateral connectivity. In the Unimpounded Reach, a high degree of longitudinal connectivity likely enhances its general resilience, but low aquatic habitat diversity, low lateral connectivity, and relatively high number of invasive fish species inhibit general resilience. For the Illinois River Reach, the relatively high fish functional diversity and redundancy likely contributes to its general resilience, whereas high number of invasive fish species, low water clarity, low lateral connectivity, and high range of water levels may inhibit general resilience. Indicators derived from application of concepts of general resilience provide insight into the current coping capacity of the UMRS and identify opportunities for enhancing resilience.

Upper Mississippi River System

Ecology and the ratchet of events: Climate variability, niche dimensions, and species distributions

Climate change in the coming centuries will be characterized by interannual, decadal, and multidecadal fluctuations superimposed on anthropogenic trends. Predicting ecological and biogeographic responses to these changes constitutes an immense challenge for ecologists. Perspectives from climatic and ecological history indicate that responses will be laden with contingencies, resulting from episodic climatic events interacting with demographic and colonization events. This effect is compounded by the dependency of environmental sensitivity upon life-stage for many species. Climate variables often used in empirical niche models may become decoupled from the proximal variables that directly influence individuals and populations. Greater predictive capacity, and morefundamental ecological and biogeographic understanding, will come from integration of correlational niche modeling with mechanistic niche modeling, dynamic ecological modeling, targeted experiments, and systematic observations of past and present patterns and dynamics.

Conference Paper

Natural resource system size can be used for managing recreational use

Outdoor recreation provides societal benefits that are often measured by the amount of use natural resource systems receive. Still, the amount of resource use natural resource systems receive is often unknown or unstudied. Monitoring and quantifying resource use is often logistically difficult and costly but is paramount to optimize societal benefits. Identifying a simple and readily available metric that can indicate the quantity of recreational use of natural resource systems would benefit natural resource management. Using recreational angler participation data during an 11-year study period from 73 public waterbodies in Nebraska, USA, we developed a resource size-use model that demonstrates the ability of natural resource system size to indicate the quantity of recreational use they receive. We demonstrate how resource size-use models can estimate use for unsampled systems, produce broad-scale estimations of use, guide the allocation of resources, and predict how changes in resource system size may affect use. Resource size-use models provide opportunities to manage recreational use, which has been previously elusive for social-ecological systems.

Nebraska

Ecology and the ratchet of events: climate variability, niche dimensions, and species distributions

Climate change in the coming centuries will be characterized by interannual, decadal, and multidecadal fluctuations superimposed on anthropogenic trends. Predicting ecological and biogeographic responses to these changes constitutes an immense challenge for ecologists. Perspectives from climatic and ecological history indicate that responses will be laden with contingencies, resulting from episodic climatic events interacting with demographic and colonization events. This effect is compounded by the dependency of environmental sensitivity upon life-stage for many species. Climate variables often used in empirical niche models may become decoupled from the proximal variables that directly influence individuals and populations. Greater predictive capacity, and more-fundamental ecological and biogeographic understanding, will come from integration of correlational niche modeling with mechanistic niche modeling, dynamic ecological modeling, targeted experiments, and systematic observations of past and present patterns and dynamics.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences

Biliary PAH metabolites and the hepatosomatic index of brown bullheads from Lake Erie tributaries

In studies designed to investigate the environmental exposure of fish in Lake Erie tributaries, a benthic fish, the brown bullhead (Ameiurus nebulosus), was collected from the industrially contaminated Detroit River, Ottawa River, Black River, Cuyahoga River-harbor and -upstream, Ashtabula River, Buffalo River, and Niagara River, and the non-industrialized Old Woman Creek during 1997-2000. Biliary benzo[a]pyrene (B[a]P)- and naphthalene (NAPH)-type metabolites and the hepatosomatic index (HSI) were measured in fish and compared between different sites. Fish from all of the contaminated sites except Niagara River had significantly higher concentrations of both types of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH) metabolites than fish from the Old Woman Creek. Concentrations of PAH metabolites in bile of fish were positively associated with concentrations of PAHs in sediments, supporting the use of bile metabolites as a measure of PAH exposure. Relatively low concentrations of PAHs detected in fish bile and sediments of the Niagara River, which had undergone extensive remediation, suggested a lowered PAH exposure for fish at this site. No apparent trend was observed in HSI between the industrialized and non-industrialized sites. This study demonstrates that biliary PAH metabolites are an effective indicator of exposure of fish to PAHs. However, because factors other than contamination could also affect the liver size of wild fish, HSI alone may be not a reliable biomarker for assessing contaminant stress. ?? 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Ecological Indicators

Development and assessment of indices to determine stream fish vulnerability to climate change and habitat alteration

Understanding the future impacts of climate and land use change are critical for long-term biodiversity conservation. We developed and compared two indices to assess the vulnerability of stream fish in Missouri, USA based on species environmental tolerances, rarity, range size, dispersal ability and on the average connectivity of the streams occupied by each species. These two indices differed in how environmental tolerance was classified (i.e., vulnerability to habitat alteration, changes in stream temperature, and changes to flow regimes). Environmental tolerance was classified based on measured species responses to habitat alteration, and extremes in stream temperatures and flow conditions for one index, while environmental tolerance for the second index was based on species’ traits. The indices were compared to determine if vulnerability scores differed by index or state listing status. We also evaluated the spatial distribution of species classified as vulnerable to habitat alteration, changes in stream temperature, and change in flow regimes. Vulnerability scores were calculated for all 133 species with the trait association index, while only 101 species were evaluated using the species response index, because 32 species lacked data to analyze for a response. Scores from the trait association index were greater than the species response index. This is likely due to the species response index's inability to evaluate many rare species, which generally had high vulnerability scores for the trait association index. The indices were consistent in classifying vulnerability to habitat alteration, but varied in their classification of vulnerability due to increases in stream temperature and alterations to flow regimes, likely because extremes in current climate may not fully capture future conditions and their influence on stream fish communities. Both indices showed higher mean vulnerability scores for listed species than unlisted species, which provided a coarse measure of validation. Our indices classified species identified as being in need of conservation by the state of Missouri as highly vulnerable. The distribution of vulnerable species in Missouri showed consistent patterns between indices, with the more forest-dominated, groundwater fed streams in the Ozark subregion generally having higher numbers and proportions of vulnerable species per site than subregions that were agriculturally dominated with more overland flow. These results suggest that both indices will identify similar habitats as conservation action targets despite discrepancies in the classification of vulnerable species. Our vulnerability assessment provides a framework that can be refined and used in other regions.

Ecological Indicators

A comparison of algal, macroinvertebrate, and fish assemblage indices for assessing low-level nutrient enrichment in wadeable Ozark streams

Biotic indices for algae, macroinvertebrates, and fish assemblages can be effective for monitoring stream enrichment, but little is known regarding the value of the three assemblages for detecting perturbance as a consequence of low-level nutrient enrichment. In the summer of 2006, we collected nutrient and biotic samples from 30 wadeable Ozark streams that spanned a nutrient-concentration gradient from reference to moderately enriched conditions. Seventy-three algal metrics, 62 macroinvertebrate metrics, and 60 fish metrics were evaluated for each of the three biotic indices. After a group of candidate metrics had been identified with multivariate analysis, correlation procedures and scatter plots were used to identify the four metrics having strongest relations to a nutrient index calculated from log transformed and normalized total nitrogen and total phosphorus concentrations. The four metrics selected for each of the three biotic indices were: algae—the relative abundance of most tolerant diatoms, the combined relative abundance of three species of Cymbella , mesosaprobic algae percent taxa richness, and the relative abundance of diatoms that are obligate nitrogen heterotrophs; macroinvertebrate—the relative abundance of intolerant organisms, Baetidae relative abundance, moderately tolerant taxa richness, and insect biomass; fish—herbivore and detritivore taxa richness, pool species relative abundance, fish catch per unit effort, and black bass ( Micropterus spp.) relative abundance. All three biotic indices were negatively correlated to nutrient concentrations but the algal index had a higher correlation (rho = −0.89) than did the macroinvertebrate and fish indices (rho = −0.63 and −0.58, respectively). Biotic index scores were lowest and nutrient concentrations were highest for streams with basins having the highest poultry and cattle production. Because of the availability of litter for fertilizer and associated increases in grass and hay production, cattle feeding capacity increases with poultry production. Studies are needed that address the synergistic effect of poultry and cattle production on Ozark streams in high production areas before ecological risks can be adequately addressed.

Arkansas, Oklahoma

Managing multiple species with conflicting needs in the Greater Everglades

Given limited funding, natural resources decision making is riddled with tradeoffs, including which species or landscapes to prioritize for management action. Florida’s Everglades wetland is home to numerous indicator species, some of which are endangered. But with a multitude of species comes differing hydrologic requirements to yield appropriate foraging and breeding conditions for each. The Everglades ecosystem is highly managed, with water being moved across the landscape to meet the habitat and reproductive needs of species of concern. Predictive modeling can help water managers understand potential consequences to targeted water conditions. EverForecast is a novel spatially explicit, hydrologic, and ecological operational forecast developed to inform conservation management decisions. Not only does EverForecast provide probable near-term water conditions, but also predicted species responses to those hydrologic conditions. Using examples from two focal regions of the Everglades, we show the magnitude of impacts to a suite of species and an almost 70% decline in suitable conditions for one species when prioritizing water management to meet the needs of another species. Although EverForecast is a relatively new decision support tool, its hydrologic outputs are already commonly used to make water management recommendations because it provides near-term hydrologic forecasts that scientists and managers need for water operations decision making. Because species management decisions have historically been made to target a single species at a time, it may take longer for full utility of EverForecast’s ability to quantify tradeoffs among species to become integrated into decision making.

Florida

Quantile regression of microgeographic variation in population characteristics of an invasive vertebrate predator

Localized ecological conditions have the potential to induce variation in population characteristics such as size distributions and body conditions. The ability to generalize the influence of ecological characteristics on such population traits may be particularly meaningful when those traits influence prospects for successful management interventions. To characterize variability in invasive Brown Treesnake population attributes within and among habitat types, we conducted systematic and seasonally-balanced surveys, collecting 100 snakes from each of 18 sites: three replicates within each of six major habitat types comprising 95% of Guam’s geographic expanse. Our study constitutes one of the most comprehensive and controlled samplings of any published snake study. Quantile regression on snake size and body condition indicated significant ecological heterogeneity, with a general trend of relative consistency of size classes and body conditions within and among scrub and Leucaena forest habitat types and more heterogeneity among ravine forest, savanna, and urban residential sites. Larger and more robust snakes were found within some savanna and urban habitat replicates, likely due to relative availability of larger prey. Compared to more homogeneous samples in the wet season, variability in size distributions and body conditions was greater during the dry season. Although there is evidence of habitat influencing Brown Treesnake populations at localized scales (e.g., the higher prevalence of larger snakes—particularly males—in savanna and urban sites), the level of variability among sites within habitat types indicates little ability to make meaningful predictions about these traits at unsampled locations. Seasonal variability within sites and habitats indicates that localized population characterization should include sampling in both wet and dry seasons. Extreme values at single replicates occasionally influenced overall habitat patterns, while pooling replicates masked variability among sites. A full understanding of population characteristics should include an assessment of variability both at the site and habitat level.

PLoS ONE

Regionalizing indicators for marine ecosystems: Bering Sea–Aleutian Island seabirds, climate, and competitors

Seabirds are thought to be reliable, real-time indicators of forage fish availability and the climatic and biotic factors affecting pelagic food webs in marine ecosystems. In this study, we tested the hypothesis that temporal trends and interannual variability in seabird indicators reflect simultaneously occurring bottom-up (climatic) and competitor (pink salmon) forcing of food webs. To test this hypothesis, we derived multivariate seabird indicators for the Bering Sea–Aleutian Island (BSAI) ecosystem and related them to physical and biological conditions known to affect pelagic food webs in the ecosystem. We examined covariance in the breeding biology of congeneric pelagic gulls (kittiwakes Rissa tridactyla and R. brevirostris) andauks (murres Uria aalge and U. lomvia), all of whichare abundant and well-studiedinthe BSAI. At the large ecosystem scale, kittiwake and murre breeding success and phenology (hatch dates) covaried among congeners, so data could be combined using multivariate techniques, but patterns of responsedifferedsubstantially betweenthe genera.Whiledata fromall sites (n = 5)inthe ecosystemcould be combined, the south eastern Bering Sea shelf colonies (St. George, St. Paul, and Cape Peirce) provided the strongest loadings on indicators, and hence had the strongest influence on modes of variability. The kittiwake breeding success mode of variability, dominated by biennial variation, was significantly related to both climatic factors and potential competitor interactions. The murre indicator mode was interannual and only weakly related to the climatic factors measured. The kittiwake phenology indicator mode of variability showed multi-year periods (“stanzas”) of late or early breeding, while the murre phenology indicator showed a trend towards earlier timing. Ocean climate relationships with the kittiwake breeding success indicator suggestthat early-season (winter–spring) environmental conditions and the abundance of pink salmon affect the pelagic food webs that support these seabirds in the BSAI ecosystem.

Alaska

Evaluating freshwater mussel sampling methodologies using a simulation model

Field surveys form the basis of many research efforts and are the foundation for estimates of population size and density that inform conservation and management practices for imperiled species. As a result, evaluating the performance of different survey methods across a range of conditions that may be encountered in the field can increase understanding of the time and effort that may be required to ensure that survey results are sufficiently accurate and reliable for conservation goals. We used a spatially explicit agent-based model to simulate four commonly used freshwater mussel field survey methodologies: simple random sampling (SRS), transect random sampling (TRS), adaptive cluster sampling (ACS), and qualitative timed searches (QTS) to investigate the influence of sampling method, spatial distribution, and mussel density on the performance ( i.e., accuracy, precision, and detection rate) of survey techniques. Our analysis suggests that mussel density, spatial distribution, and sampling effort influence sampling accuracy, precision, and species detection for all sampling methods. QTS produces highly variable catch-per-unit-effort (CPUE) metrics when mussels are dense and/or clustered, indicating the technique may be unreliable as a proxy for density. Quantitative methods like SRS and TRS may be well-suited for estimating population characteristics, but a high level of effort may be needed to obtain reasonable accuracy when mussels occur at low densities. ACS may be more efficient for mussels at low densities, but it can be challenging to plan for the level of effort required to complete an ACS protocol. Designing an ecological survey requires careful consideration of research objectives and available resources. Future research may consider the performance of qualitative and quantitative surveys in combination as a means of overcoming some of the practical challenges of applying individual survey methods.

Ecological Indicators