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USGS2013

Estimating suitable environments for invasive plant species across large landscapes: a remote sensing strategy using Landsat 7 ETM+

The key to reducing ecological and economic damage caused by invasive plant species is to locate and eradicate new invasions before they threaten native biodiversity and ecological processes. We used Landsat Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus imagery to estimate suitable environments for four invasive plants in Big Bend National Park, southwest Texas, using a presence-only modeling approach. Giant reed ( Arundo donax ), Lehmann lovegrass ( Eragrostis lehmanniana ), horehound ( Marrubium vulgare ) and buffelgrass ( Pennisteum ciliare ) were selected for remote sensing spatial analyses. Multiple dates/seasons of imagery were used to account for habitat conditions within the study area and to capture phenological differences among targeted species and the surrounding landscape. Individual species models had high (0.91 to 0.99) discriminative ability to differentiate invasive plant suitable environments from random background locations. Average test area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) ranged from 0.91 to 0.99, indicating that plant predictive models exhibited high discriminative ability to differentiate suitable environments for invasive plant species from random locations. Omission rates ranged from <1.0 to 18%. We demonstrated that useful models estimating suitable environments for invasive plants may be created with <50 occurrence locations and that reliable modeling using presence-only datasets can be powerful tools for land managers.

Texas↗

USGS2024

Saltwater intrusion and sea level rise threatens U.S. rural coastal landscapes and communities

The United States (U.S.) coastal plain is subject to rising sea levels, land subsidence, more severe coastal storms, and more intense droughts. These changes lead to inputs of marine salts into freshwater-dependent coastal systems, creating saltwater intrusion. The penetration of salinity into the coastal interior is exacerbated by groundwater extraction and the high density of agricultural canals and ditches throughout much of the rural U.S. landscape. Together saltwater intrusion and sea level rise (SWISLR) create substantial changes to the social-ecological systems situated along the coastal plain. Many scholars and practitioners are engaged in studying and managing SWISLR impacts on social, economic, and ecological systems. However, most efforts are localized and disconnected, despite a widespread desire to understand this common threat. In addition to variable rates of sea level rise across the U.S. outer coastal plain, differences in geomorphic setting, water resources infrastructure and management, and climate extremes are resulting in different patterns of saltwater intrusion. Understanding both the absolute magnitude of this rapid environmental change, and the causes and consequences for its spatial and temporal variation presents an opportunity to build new mechanistic models to link directional climate change to temporally and spatially dynamic socio-environmental impacts. The diverse trajectories of change offer rich opportunities to test and refine modern theories of ecosystem state change in systems with exceptionally strong socioecological feedbacks.

Anthropocene↗

USGS2017

Octocoral diseases in a changing ocean

Octocorals (Cnidaria, Octocorallia) constitute a geographically widely distributed and common group of marine invertebrates commonly referred to as “soft-corals,” “sea fans,” “horny corals,” “sea feathers,” and “sea plumes.” They are found from shallow coastal habitats to mesophotic and abyssal depths. Octocorals are important members of most Atlantic-Caribbean, Indo-Pacific, and Mediterranean coastal and mesophotic reef communities; however, information about their susceptibility to diseases, predation, and competition, and their relationship with changing environmental conditions is limited. At least 19 diseases have been observed in at least 42 common octocoral species throughout their range. Twelve of these have been reported in the wider Caribbean (CA), one in Brazil (BR), two in the Mediterranean (ME), one in the Eastern Pacific (EP), and three in the western Pacific (WP). Pathogenic and/or environmental causes have been identified for eight diseases, including viruses, terrestrial fungi, protozoans, bacteria and cyanobacteria, filamentous algae, parasitic copepods, and high temperature. Only a few of the suspected pathogens have been tested with Koch’s postulates. At least eight disease outbreaks have led to extensive octocoral mortalities in the CA, ME, BR, and EP with detrimental ecological consequences. The fungal disease Aspergillosis has produced the highest mortalities in the CA and the EP. Other fungi, protozoans, and the bacterium Vibrio coralliilyticus were identified as potential causes of the death of millions of colonies in two Mediterranean disease outbreaks. Bacterial and fungal agents seemed to be responsible for the mass mortalities in Brazil and the WP. Most outbreaks in all regions were linked to high thermal anomalies associated with climate change, which seems to be the major driver. Other biological stressors such as predation and/or competition produce injuries that may contribute to the spread of infections and mortality. Overfishing of common predators could lead to population explosions of octocoral-feeding species that produced mass mortalities in some Caribbean localities. Our lack of knowledge of causes and pathogenesis of octocoral diseases parallels that of hard corals. New diseases are being described almost every year concomitant with increasing seawater temperatures. The ecological and economic consequences could be significant, with drastic changes in the seascape of shallow coral reefs and other coastal marine habitats and reduction of their ecological services. Given our limited knowledge, our best options for recovery of octocorals and coral reefs in general include sound management of coastal fisheries, development and tourism; reduction of land- and sea-based pollution; and abating effects of climate change.

Book chapter↗

USGS2021

Eastward expansion of Round Goby in New York: Assessment of detection methods and current range

The Round Goby Neogobius melanostomus has spread rapidly around the Great Lakes region since its introduction to North America in 1990. In 2014, a specimen was captured in the New York State Canal System west of Utica, prompting concerns that Round Goby would soon reach the ecologically and economically valuable watersheds of Lake Champlain and the Hudson River estuary. The establishment of Round Goby populations elsewhere has been linked to a number of negative ecological consequences, yet methods for monitoring the invasion front of this species remain limited. The objectives of this study were to assess the current distribution of Round Goby in central New York and to determine the most effective methods for monitoring the invasion front. This was achieved by concurrently using benthic trawling, seining, minnow traps, and environmental DNA (eDNA) twice annually from 2016 to 2019 at 12 sites on the canal system between Oneida Lake and the Hudson River. Of the three traditional gear types, benthic trawling was the most effective method and captured Round Goby as far east as Utica by 2019. This finding suggests only minimal eastward expansion of Round Goby occurred between 2014 and 2019. Round Goby DNA was detected in water samples during all surveys in which individuals were captured with trawling, and the estimated concentration of DNA explained 69% of the variability in trawl catch. At multiple study sites, Round Goby DNA was identified during consecutive surveys before Round Goby were first captured with trawling. This suggests that in lotic waters, eDNA has the potential to forecast or serve as a sentinel for the expansion of Round Goby to new locations. Our results demonstrate the importance of using eDNA in a repeated sampling framework and supplementing eDNA sampling with some level of effort with traditional sampling methods.

Great Lakes↗

USGS2017

U.S. Geological Survey Science—Improving the value of the Chesapeake Bay watershed

Introduction Congress directed the Federal Government to work with States to restore the Nation’s largest estuary. Chesapeake Bay restoration provides important economic and ecological benefits: 18 million people live and work in the Bay watershed and enjoy its benefits. 3,600 types of fish, wildlife, and plants underpin the economic value of the Bay ecosystem. Poor water quality and habitat loss threaten restoration and negatively impact the economy. 10 Goals to meet by 2025 through the Chesapeake Bay Program, a voluntary partnership.

Delaware, Maryland, New York, Pennsylvania, Virgin↗

USGS2008

Calibrating and testing a gap model for simulating forest management in the Oregon Coast Range

The complex mix of economic and ecological objectives facing today's forest managers necessitates the development of growth models with a capacity for simulating a wide range of forest conditions while producing outputs useful for economic analyses. We calibrated the gap model ZELIG to simulate stand-level forest development in the Oregon Coast Range as part of a landscape-scale assessment of different forest management strategies. Our goal was to incorporate the predictive ability of an empirical model with the flexibility of a forest succession model. We emphasized the development of commercial-aged stands of Douglas-fir, the dominant tree species in the study area and primary source of timber. In addition, we judged that the ecological approach of ZELIG would be robust to the variety of other forest conditions and practices encountered in the Coast Range, including mixed-species stands, small-scale gap formation, innovative silvicultural methods, and reserve areas where forests grow unmanaged for long periods of time. We parameterized the model to distinguish forest development among two ecoregions, three forest types and two site productivity classes using three data sources: chronosequences of forest inventory data, long-term research data, and simulations from an empirical growth-and-yield model. The calibrated model was tested with independent, long-term measurements from 11 Douglas-fir plots (6 unthinned, 5 thinned), 3 spruce-hemlock plots, and 1 red alder plot. ZELIG closely approximated developmental trajectories of basal area and large trees in the Douglas-fir plots. Differences between simulated and observed conifer basal area for these plots ranged from -2.6 to 2.4 m2/ha; differences in the number of trees/ha ???50 cm dbh ranged from -8.8 to 7.3 tph. Achieving these results required the use of a diameter-growth multiplier, suggesting some underlying constraints on tree growth such as the temperature response function. ZELIG also tended to overestimate regeneration of shade-tolerant trees and underestimate total tree density (i.e., higher rates of tree mortality). However, comparisons with the chronosequences of forest inventory data indicated that the simulated data are within the range of variability observed in the Coast Range. Further exploration and improvement of ZELIG is warranted in three key areas: (1) modeling rapid rates of conifer tree growth without the need for a diameter-growth multiplier; (2) understanding and remedying rates of tree mortality that were higher than those observed in the independent data; and (3) improving the tree regeneration module to account for competition with understory vegetation. ?? 2008 Elsevier B.V.

Forest Ecology and Management↗

USGS2021

Economic assessment of surface water in the Harney Basin, Oregon

Executive Summary The Harney Basin is a closed river basin in southeastern Oregon. Surface water in the basin is used for a variety of social, economic, and ecological benefits. While some surface water uses compete with one another, others are complementary or jointly produce multiple beneficial outcomes. The objective of this study is to conduct an economic assessment of surface water in the basin as it relates to wet meadow pasture production and outdoor recreation. Given the complex interactions between surface water management on public and private land and the various goods and services that are derived from adequate water resources, an economic assessment of surface water management can be used to assist future decision making in the basin.

Oregon↗

USGS2022

Economic benefits supported by surface water in eastern Oregon’s Harney Basin

The Harney Basin is a closed river basin in southeastern Oregon. Surface water in the basin is used for a variety of social, economic, and ecological benefits. While some surface water uses compete with one another, others are complementary or jointly produce multiple beneficial outcomes. The objective of this study is to conduct a baseline economic assessment of surface water in the Basin as it relates to wet meadow pasture production and outdoor recreation. Given the complex interactions between surface water management on public and private land, identifying and quantifying these economic outcomes can be used to assist future decision making in the Basin.

Oregon↗

USGS2020

Spatially referenced models of streamflow and nitrogen, phosphorus, and suspended-sediment loads in streams of the northeastern United States

SPAtially Referenced Regression On Watershed attributes (SPARROW) models were developed to quantify and improve the understanding of the sources, fate, and transport of nitrogen, phosphorus, and suspended sediment in the northeastern United States. Excessive nutrients and suspended sediment from upland watersheds and tributary streams have contributed to ecological and economic degradation of northeastern surface waters. Recent efforts to reduce the flux of nutrients and suspended sediment in northeastern streams and to downstream estuaries have met with mixed results, and expected ecological improvements have been observed in some areas but not in others. Effective watershed management and restoration to improve surface-water quality are complicated by the multitude of nutrient sources in the Northeast and the multitude of natural and human landscape processes affecting the delivery of nutrients and suspended sediment from upland areas to and within surface waters. Individual models were constructed representing streamflow and the loads of total nitrogen, total phosphorus, and suspended sediment from watersheds draining to the Atlantic Ocean from southern Virginia through Maine. Northeastern streams contribute 303,000 metric tons (t) of nitrogen, 25,300 t of phosphorus, and 14,700,000 t of suspended sediment, annually (on average), to waters along the Atlantic Coast of North America. Although atmospheric deposition and natural mineral erosion contribute to nitrogen and phosphorus loads, respectively, in northeastern streams, most of the contributions are attributable to urban or agricultural sources. Within the Northeast, average yields of nutrients are therefore generally greater from densely populated or intensively cultivated areas of the mid-Atlantic region, the Hudson, Mohawk, and Connecticut River valleys, and the coastal areas of southern New England than in predominantly forested areas such as northern New England. Average upland sediment yields are similarly greater from agricultural areas than from urban or forested areas and are therefore generally greatest in areas yielding the greatest nutrients. Landscape conditions that are significant to nitrogen delivery from uplands to streams likely reflect the importance of groundwater transport in carbonate settings and of denitrification for removing nitrogen from uplands. Nitrogen losses to streams in agricultural areas are apparently mitigated by the use of cover crops but are exacerbated by the use of conservation tillage or no-till practices. The transport of phosphorus and suspended sediment from uplands to streams is greater in areas of more erodible soils but mitigated in agricultural areas with greater use of conservation tillage or no-till practices. Loads of nutrients and suspended sediment are significantly reduced within the stream network in impounded reaches, and nitrogen load is also significantly reduced in small flowing reaches.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2024

Evaluating spatially explicit management alternatives for an invasive species in a riverine network

Invasive species have substantial ecological and economic costs and removing them can require large investments by management agencies. Optimal spatial allocation of removal effort is critical for efficient and effective management of invasive species. Using a series of ecologically informed model simulations, we evaluated and compared different spatially explicit removal strategies for invasive rusty crayfish ( Faxonius rusticus ) in the John Day River, USA. We assessed strategies in terms of their performance on three likely management objectives: suppression (minimise overall population abundance), containment (minimise the spatial extent of invasion) and prevention (minimise spread into a specific area). We developed five spatial removal strategies to achieve those objectives, denoted as: Target Abundance (removal at locations with the highest population abundance), Target Growth (removal at locations with the highest population growth), Target Edges (removal at the most distant locations in the river), Target Downstream (removal at the most downstream invaded segments on the Mainstem), and Target Random (removal at randomly selected locations). Each strategy was assessed at various effort levels, referring to the number of spatial segments in the river in which removals were conducted, after seven years of management. We identified the alternative that best achieved each objective, based on decision criteria for risk-neutral and risk-averse decision-makers and further evaluated strategies based on Pareto efficiency, which identifies the set of alternatives for which an improvement on one objective cannot be had without a decline in performance on another. We found that Target Abundance and Target Growth strategies best achieved the suppression objective, for risk neutral and risk averse decision-makers, respectively and Target Downstream was always best in achieving the prevention objective across both types of decision-makers. No single strategy consistently performed best in terms of the containment objective. In terms of all three objectives, Target Downstream was consistently Pareto efficient across all levels of management effort and both decision criteria. The modelling framework we provided is adaptable to a variety of riverine invasive species to help assess and compare spatial management strategies.

Oregon↗

USGS2024

The economics of decarbonizing Costa Rica's agriculture, forestry and other land uses sectors

In 2018, Costa Rica demonstrated its commitment to the Paris Agreement and published its Decarbonization Plan for achieving zero net emissions by the year 2050. We evaluate the impacts of the country's strategy for decarbonizing its Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Uses (AFOLU) sectors by coupling the Integrated Economic-Environmental Modeling framework with high-resolution spatial land use-land cover change and ecosystem services modeling (IEEM+ESM). Our results show that decarbonization of AFOLU would simultaneously enhance carbon storage, water purification, water regulation and erosion mitigation ecosystem services. Moreover, the positive cumulative wealth impact of decarbonization would be approximately US$7.27 billion by 2050 while lifting an additional 3810 individuals out of poverty. From a public investment perspective, decarbonization would have a fiscally neutral impact with the economic benefits sufficient in magnitude to off-set policy implementation costs and generate economic returns of over US$852 million when changes in natural capital stocks and environmental quality are considered. This application to Costa Rica is the first integrated economy-wide analysis of a growing number of decarbonization plans globally. The IEEM+ESM approach provides an integrated framework for analyzing decarbonization plans and can be used to refine AFOLU mitigation strategies to capitalize on synergies and minimize negative trade-offs across the three dimensions of wealth and sustainable economic development, namely economy, society and the environment.

Ecological Economics↗

USGS2024

The use of conceptual ecological models to identify critical data and uncertainties to support numerical modeling: The northern Gulf of Mexico eastern oyster Crassostrea virginica example

Objective Increasing reliance on numerical simulation models to help inform management and restoration choices benefits from careful consideration of critical early steps in model development. Along the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico, the eastern oyster Crassostrea virginica fulfills important ecological and economic roles. Using the eastern oyster as an example, we draw on several recent frameworks outlining best practices for model development and application for restoration, conservation, and management. Methods We identify priority model questions, outline a conceptual ecological model (CEM) to guide numerical model development, and use this framework to identify uncertainties and research needs. Result The CEM uses a nested design, identifying explicit vital rates, processes, attributes, and outcomes for the species (oysters), population, and metapopulation (i.e., network of populations) levels in response to drivers of species, population, and metapopulation changes and changing environmental factors. Most management actions related to oyster restoration and harvest affect population attributes directly, but many coastal management actions and changes (i.e., climate change and coastal and water resource engineering) impact environmental factors that alter vital rates and attributes of oysters, populations, and metapopulations. Conclusion Investment in studies targeting individual oyster‐ and population‐level multi‐stressor responses (filtration, respiration, growth, and reproduction) and improving hydrodynamic and environmental models targeting drivers that influence metapopulation vital rates and attributes (i.e., connectivity and substrate persistence) would contribute to reducing uncertainties. Development of numerical models covering the entire oyster life cycle and connectivity of populations using hydrodynamic models of current and predicted conditions to provide key abiotic and biotic factors influencing larval movement, recruitment, and on‐reef oyster vital rates would assist in balancing the goals of conservation, restoration, and fisheries management of this foundational estuarine species.

Marine and Coastal Fisheries: Dynamics, Management↗

USGS2010

Hydrogeomorphic segments and hydraulic microhabitats of the Niobrara River, Nebraska— With special emphasis on the Niobrara National Scenic River

The Niobrara River is an ecologically and economically important resource in Nebraska. The Nebraska Department of Natural Resources’ recent designation of the hydraulically connected surface- and groundwater resources of the Niobrara River Basin as “fully appropriated” has emphasized the importance of understanding linkages between the physical and ecological dynamics of the Niobrara River so it can be sustainably managed. In cooperation with the Nebraska Game and Parks Commission, the U.S. Geological Survey investigated the hydrogeomorphic and hydraulic attributes of the Niobrara River in northern Nebraska. This report presents the results of an analysis of hydrogeomorphic segments and hydraulic microhabitats of the Niobrara River and its valley for the approximately 330-mile reach from Dunlap Diversion Dam to its confluence with the Missouri River. Two spatial scales were used to examine and quantify the hydrogeomorphic segments and hydraulic microhabitats of the Niobrara River: a basin scale and a reach scale. At the basin scale, digital spatial data and hydrologic data were analyzed to (1) test for differences between 36 previously determined longitudinal hydrogeomorphic segments; (2) quantitatively describe the hydrogeomorphic characteristics of the river and its valley; and (3) evaluate differences in hydraulic microhabitat over a range of flow regimes among three fluvial geomorphic provinces. The statistical analysis of hydrogeomorphic segments resulted in reclassification rates of 3 to 28 percent of the segments for the four descriptive geomorphic elements. The reassignment of classes by discriminant analysis resulted in a reduction from 36 to 25 total hydrogeomorphic segments because several adjoining segments shared the same ultimate class assignments. Virtually all of the segment mergers were in the Canyons and Restricted Bottoms (CRB) fluvial geomorphic province. The most frequent classes among hydrogeomorphic segments, and the dominant classes per unit length of river, are: a width-restricted valley confinement condition, sinuous-planview pattern, irregular channel width, and an alternate bar configuration. The Niobrara River in the study area flows through a diversity of fluvial geomorphic settings in its traverse across northern Nebraska. In the Meandering Bottoms (MB) fluvial geomorphic province, river discharge magnitudes are low, and the valley exerts little control on the channel-planview pattern. Within the CRB province, the river flows over a diversity of geologic formations, and the valley and river narrow and expand in approximate synchronicity. In the Braided Bottoms (BB) fluvial geomorphic province, the river primarily flows over Cretaceous Pierre Shale, the valley and channel are persistently wide, and the channel slope is generally uniform. The existence of vegetated islands and consequent multithread channel environments, indicated by a higher braided index, mostly coincided with reaches having gentler slopes and less unit stream power. Longitudinal hydrology curves indicate that the flow of the Niobrara River likely is dominated by groundwater as far downstream as Norden. Unit stream power values in the study area vary between 0 and almost 2 pounds per foot per second. Within the MB province, unit stream power steadily increases as the Niobrara gains discharge from groundwater inflow, and the channel slope steepens. The combination of steep slopes, a constrained channel width, and persistent flow within the CRB province results in unit stream power values that are between three and five times greater than those in less confined segments with comparable or greater discharges. With the exception of hydrogeomorphic segment 3, which is affected by Spencer Dam, unit stream power values in the BB province are generally uniform. Channel sinuosity values in the study area varied generally between 1 and 2.5, but with locally higher values measured in the MB province and at the entrenched bedrock meanders of hydrogeomorphic segment 18 in the CRB province. The differences in channel morphology and hydraulic geometries between fluvial geomorphic provinces are evident in the types, relative abundance, and response of hydraulic microhabitats to changing discharges. The four gaging stations chosen for hydraulic microhabitat analysis are distributed among three different fluvial geomorphic provinces. In the MB province, the smaller channel and lower discharges resulted in the dominance of shallow and intermediate-depth hydraulic environments with the vast majority of hydraulic microhabitat restricted to shallow categories even during upper-decile discharges. In the CRB province, intermediate depth hydraulic conditions, particularly intermediate-swift, dominate over all ranges of discharge. Hydraulic microhabitat conditions were most diverse in the BB province, with most hydraulic microhabitat categories present over the entire range of discharges analyzed. The calculated differences in hydraulic microhabitat distributions, abundance, and adjustments between streamflow-gaging stations were the result of differences in physical structure of the channel and subsequent channel hydraulic geometry. At the reach scale, field measurements made in water years 2008 and 2009 in four study reaches within the Scenic Reach were used to (1) characterize the elevation and geomorphic processes associated with fluvial landforms, (2) build hydraulic geometry relations, (3) examine flow hydraulics over a range of discharges, and (4) examine the types and responses of hydraulic microhabitats to a range of flow magnitudes. Four landform groups were identified and named in order of increasing elevation: low flood plains, intermediate flood plains, low terraces, and high terraces. The terraces were poorly characterized because the surveys did not extend across the full width of the alluvial valley bottom. The two lowest fluvial landforms are likely active in the modern hydroclimatic regime. Sediment samples obtained in the study reaches indicate that the primary bed material in the active channel ranged in size from coarse silt to coarse sand. Grain-size distributions from samples also indicate that the bed of the Niobrara River among the study reaches coarsens and has increasing grainsize variability in the downstream direction. Values of at-a-station hydraulic geometry exponents indicate that the Niobrara River in the study reaches adjusts its geometry to changing discharges primarily through increases in flow depth and velocity. Relations at one cross section indicated that, at least locally, changes in width were also an important channel adjustment mechanism. Hydraulic behavior over the range of flows measured was not consistent among all study reaches, but two general modes of hydraulic behavior were observed in the reaches with substantial coverage of the bed by fine sediment. At the Sunny Brook and Muleshoe study reaches, average boundary-shear stress remained approximately constant, and hydraulic resistance decreased, for discharges below 900 cubic feet per second (ft 3 /s). Above 900 ft 3 /s, average boundary shear stress and hydraulic resistance both increased. The Rock Barn study reach did not exhibit the same two-mode hydraulic behavior observed at the Sunny Brook and Muleshoe reaches. The coincident increase in boundary shear stress above 900 ft 3 /s observed at the Sunny Brook and Muleshoe study reaches represents a potential hydraulic threshold above which bedload transport rates were likely to increase markedly. No consistent bed-adjustment pattern (scour or fill) was identified in the study reaches over the range of flows or over the measurement season. Analysis of hydraulic microhabitats over the range of discharges measured at the study reaches indicates that some percentage of most habitat niche categories was available for at least one discharge condition, but the majority of hydraulic habitat available was within the intermediate-swift and deepswift habitat niche categories. Deep-swift conditions dominated nearly all study reaches under all measured discharge conditions. Slight differences in habitat distributions were observed between the study reaches with substantial coverage of the bed by fine sediment—Sunny Brook, Muleshoe, and Rock Barn—and the bedrock-dominated reach, Crooked Creek. Although the four study reaches occupy three different hydrogeomorphic segments, the types, relative abundance, and response of hydraulic microhabitat niche distributions to changing discharge conditions generally were similar among all reaches.

Nebraska↗

USGS2024

Rethinking cost-share programs in consideration of economic equity: A case study of wildfire risk mitigation assistance for private landowners

Public agencies and organizations often deliver financial assistance through cost sharing, in which recipients contribute some portion toward total costs. However, cost sharing might raise equity concerns if it reduces participation among populations with lower incomes. Here, we revisit a past study using a richer dataset (n=1,689) to assess whether stated income levels affect survey respondents' willingness to participate in a cost share program for vegetation reduction to mitigate wildfire risk in western Colorado. Results show that residents with lower incomes are less likely to participate even though they can choose to contribute 0% toward a cost share. Residents reporting incomes less than $50,000 are 11 percentage points less likely to participate than those reporting incomes of $200,000 or more. They also are willing to pay a lower share (26 percentage points less) if they do participate. Results indicate potential economic equity concerns from the use of such programs.

Colorado↗

USGS2015

Pulse-drought atop press-drought: unexpected plant responses and implications for dryland ecosystems

In drylands, climate change is predicted to cause chronic reductions in water availability (press-droughts) through reduced precipitation and increased temperatures as well as increase the frequency and intensity of short-term extreme droughts (pulse-droughts). These changes in precipitation patterns may have profound ecosystem effects, depending on the sensitivities of the dominant plant functional types (PFTs). Here we present the responses of four Colorado Plateau PFTs to an experimentally imposed, 4-year, press-drought during which a natural pulse-drought occurred. Our objectives were to (1) identify the drought sensitivities of the PFTs, (2) assess the additive effects of the press- and pulse-drought, and (3) examine the interactive effects of soils and drought. Our results revealed that the C 3 grasses were the most sensitive PFT to drought, the C 3 shrubs were the most resistant, and the C 4 grasses and shrubs had intermediate drought sensitivities. Although we expected the C 3 grasses would have the greatest response to drought, the higher resistance of C 3 shrubs relative to the C 4 shrubs was contrary to our predictions based on the higher water use efficiency of C 4 photosynthesis. Also, the additive effects of press- and pulse-droughts caused high morality in C 3 grasses, which has large ecological and economic ramifications for this region. Furthermore, despite predictions based on the inverse texture hypothesis, we observed no interactive effects of soils with the drought treatment on cover or mortality. These results suggest that plant responses to droughts in drylands may differ from expectations and have large ecological effects if press- and pulse-droughts push species beyond physiological and mortality thresholds.

Oecologia↗

USGS2026

Statewide agent-based model for management of chronic wasting disease in white-tailed deer: PAOvCWD

Chronic wasting disease (CWD) is an always-fatal disease infecting wild cervids globally. Ecologically and economically important, CWD presents a challenge for managing white-tailed deer ( Odocoileus virginianus ). We built an agent-based model to simulate CWD transmission and assess potential management actions that could slow disease spread: PAOvCWD . We developed PAOvCWD using contact rates and other behavioral and ecological metrics estimated from deer monitored in Pennsylvania, USA. We programmed potential management responses (e.g., culling, altered hunter harvest) for all 22 Pennsylvania wildlife management units and validated the efficacy of PAOvCWD using a deer population in south-central Pennsylvania infected with CWD for > 10 years. To support applications of our model, we developed a user-friendly R pipeline that allows implementation with relatively minor modifications. Our pipeline includes four steps: • Steps 1 and 2 generate regional percent forest cover rasters and curate population-level demographics. • Step 3 initializes landscapes and agents using our PAOvPOP model. • Step 4 assesses CWD transmission and management responses using our PAOvCWD model.

Pennsylvania↗

USGS2017

Systems approaches for coastal hazard assessment and resilience

The framework presented herein supports a changing paradigm in the approaches used by coastal researchers, engineers, and social scientists to model the impacts of climate change and sea level rise (SLR) in particular along low-gradient coastal landscapes. Use of a System of Systems (SoS) approach to the coastal dynamics of SLR is encouraged to capture the nonlinear feedbacks and dynamic responses of the bio-geo-physical coastal environment to SLR, while assessing the social, economic, and ecologic impacts. The SoS approach divides the coastal environment into smaller subsystems such as morphology, ecology, and hydrodynamics. Integrated models are used to assess the dynamic responses of subsystems to SLR; these models account for complex interactions and feedbacks among individual systems, which provides a more comprehensive evaluation of the future of the coastal system as a whole. Results from the integrated models can be used to inform economic services valuations, in which economic activity is connected back to bio-geo-physical changes in the environment due to SLR by identifying changes in the coastal subsystems, linking them to the understanding of the economic system and assessing the direct and indirect impacts to the economy. These assessments can be translated from scientific data to application through various stakeholder engagement mechanisms, which provide useful feedback for accountability as well as benchmarks and diagnostic insights for future planning. This allows regional and local coastal managers to create more comprehensive policies to reduce the risks associated with future SLR and enhance coastal resilience.

Book chapter↗

USGS2011

Economic importance of bats in agriculture

White-nose syndrome (WNS) and the increased development of wind-power facilities are threatening populations of insectivorous bats in North America. Bats are voracious predators of nocturnal insects, including many crop and forest pests. We present here analyses suggesting that loss of bats in North America could lead to agricultural losses estimated at more than $3.7 billion/year. Urgent efforts are needed to educate the public and policy-makers about the ecological and economic importance of insectivorous bats and to provide practical conservation solutions.

Science↗