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At least 109 records · Page 6Linked to original sources
USGS2015

Niche divergence builds the case for ecological speciation in skinks of the Plestiodon skiltonianus species complex

Adaptation to different thermal environments has the potential to cause evolutionary changes that are sufficient to drive ecological speciation. Here, we examine whether climate-based niche divergence in lizards of the Plestiodon skiltonianus species complex is consistent with the outcomes of such a process. Previous work on this group shows that a mechanical sexual barrier has evolved between species that differ mainly in body size and that the barrier may be a by-product of selection for increased body size in lineages that have invaded xeric environments; however, baseline information on niche divergence among members of the group is lacking. We quantified the climatic niche using mechanistic physiological and correlative niche models and then estimated niche differences among species using ordination techniques and tests of niche overlap and equivalency. Our results show that the thermal niches of size-divergent, reproductively isolated morphospecies are significantly differentiated and that precipitation may have been as important as temperature in causing increased shifts in body size in xeric habitats. While these findings alone do not demonstrate thermal adaptation or identify the cause of speciation, their integration with earlier genetic and behavioral studies provides a useful test of phenotype–environment associations that further support the case for ecological speciation in these lizards.

Ecology and Evolution↗
USGS2018

A method to detect discontinuities in census data

The distribution of pattern across scales has predictive power in the analysis of complex systems. Discontinuity approaches remain a fruitful avenue of research in the quest for quantitative measures of resilience because discontinuity analysis provides an objective means of identifying scales in complex systems and facilitates delineation of hierarchical patterns in processes, structure, and resources. However, current discontinuity methods have been considered too subjective, too complicated and opaque, or have become computationally obsolete; given the ubiquity of discontinuities in ecological and other complex systems, a simple and transparent method for detection is needed. In this study, we present a method to detect discontinuities in census data based on resampling of a neutral model and provide the R code used to run the analyses. This method has the potential for advancing basic and applied ecological research.

Ecology and Evolution↗
USGS2016

Mercury in western North America: A synthesis of environmental contamination, fluxes, bioaccumulation, and risk to fish and wildlife

Western North America is a region defined by extreme gradients in geomorphology and climate, which support a diverse array of ecological communities and natural resources. The region also has extreme gradients in mercury (Hg) contamination due to a broad distribution of inorganic Hg sources. These diverse Hg sources and a varied landscape create a unique and complex mosaic of ecological risk from Hg impairment associated with differential methylmercury (MeHg) production and bioaccumulation. Understanding the landscape-scale variation in the magnitude and relative importance of processes associated with Hg transport, methylation, and MeHg bioaccumulation requires a multidisciplinary synthesis that transcends small-scale variability. The Western North America Mercury Synthesis compiled, analyzed, and interpreted spatial and temporal patterns and drivers of Hg and MeHg in air, soil, vegetation, sediments, fish, and wildlife across western North America. This collaboration evaluated the potential risk from Hg to fish, and wildlife health, human exposure, and examined resource management activities that influenced the risk of Hg contamination. This paper integrates the key information presented across the individual papers that comprise the synthesis. The compiled information indicates that Hg contamination is widespread, but heterogeneous, across western North America. The storage and transport of inorganic Hg across landscape gradients are largely regulated by climate and land-cover factors such as plant productivity and precipitation. Importantly, there was a striking lack of concordance between pools and sources of inorganic Hg, and MeHg in aquatic food webs. Additionally, water management had a widespread influence on MeHg bioaccumulation in aquatic ecosystems, whereas mining impacts where relatively localized. These results highlight the decoupling of inorganic Hg sources with MeHg production and bioaccumulation. Together the findings indicate that developing efforts to control MeHg production in the West may be particularly beneficial for reducing food web exposure instead of efforts to simply control inorganic Hg sources.

Science of the Total Environment↗
USGS2022

Antecedent climatic conditions spanning several years influence multiple land-surface phenology events in semi-arid environments

Ecological processes are complex, often exhibiting non-linear, interactive, or hierarchical relationships. Furthermore, models identifying drivers of phenology are constrained by uncertainty regarding predictors, interactions across scales, and legacy impacts of prior climate conditions. Nonetheless, measuring and modeling ecosystem processes such as phenology remains critical for management of ecological systems and the social systems they support. We used random forest models to assess which combination of climate, location, edaphic, vegetation composition, and disturbance variables best predict several phenological responses in three dominant land cover types in the U.S. Northwestern Great Plains (NWP). We derived phenological measures from the 25-year series of AVHRR satellite data and characterized climatic predictors (i.e., multiple moisture and/or temperature based variables) over seasonal and annual timeframes within the current year and up to 4 years prior. We found that antecedent conditions, from seasons to years before the current, were strongly associated with phenological measures, apparently mediating the responses of communities to current-year conditions. For example, at least one measure of antecedent-moisture availability [precipitation or vapor pressure deficit (VPD)] over multiple years was a key predictor of all productivity measures. Variables including longer-term lags or prior year sums, such as multi-year-cumulative moisture conditions of maximum VPD, were top predictors for start of season. Productivity measures were also associated with contextual variables such as soil characteristics and vegetation composition. Phenology is a key process that profoundly affects organism-environment relationships, spatio-temporal patterns in ecosystem structure and function, and other ecosystem dynamics. Phenology, however, is complex, and is mediated by lagged effects, interactions, and a diversity of potential drivers; nonetheless, the incorporation of antecedent conditions and contextual variables can improve models of phenology.

Idaho, Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dako↗
USGS2026

Co-producing coastal bird research on the Gulf Coast through structured decision making (SDM) and constructed value of information (CVoI)

Conservation practitioners face the complex challenge of addressing global biodiversity threats within social-ecological systems with multiple jurisdictions, numerous interest groups, and changing environmental conditions. Bridging the research-to-implementation gap between scientists and managers, which integrates diverse perspectives that represent the variety of considerations impacting management outcomes can help to inform efficient and effective conservation. Avian conservation programs along the U.S. Gulf Coast exemplify these challenges, as management decisions must address diverse threats to declining coastal bird populations across large breeding, wintering, and migratory ranges while facing uncertainty surrounding the efficacy of large-scale strategies. This provides opportunities for improving management through co-produced research with structured decision making (SDM). We present a case study that demonstrates the application of co-production principles and SDM to collaboratively develop high-priority research questions informing effective avian conservation and management. Additionally, we applied a constructed value of information (CVoI) framework to identify and prioritize which uncertainties to reduce and better understand how research questions impact management actions. The integration of SDM’s five-step decision making framework ensured key principles of co-production were met, while co-production enhanced SDM outcomes by incorporating diverse perspectives and knowledge bases. CVoI further allowed participants to collectively determine final high-priority research questions in the face of complexity and uncertainty. Together, these approaches supported co-produced knowledge-generation, strategic hypothesis prioritization, and identification of research questions most likely to improve conservation decisions. This case study from the U.S. Gulf Coast demonstrates how co-produced research through SDM offers a broadly applicable approach for navigating ecological complexity and bridging the research-to-implementation gap in avian conservation.

Gulf Coast↗
USGS2014

Social-ecological resilience and law in the Platte River Basin

Efficiency and resistance to rapid change are hallmarks of both the judicial and legislative branches of the United States government. These defining characteristics, while bringing stability and predictability, pose challenges when it comes to managing dynamic natural systems. As our understanding of ecosystems improves, we must devise ways to account for the non-linearities and uncertainties rife in complex social-ecological systems. This paper takes an in-depth look at the Platte River basin over time to explore how the system's resilience—the capacity to absorb disturbance without losing defining structures and functions—responds to human driven change. Beginning with pre-European settlement, the paper explores how water laws, policies, and infrastructure influenced the region's ecology and society. While much of the post-European development in the Platte River basin came at a high ecological cost to the system, the recent tri-state and federal collaborative Platte River Recovery and Implementation Program is a first step towards flexible and adaptive management of the social-ecological system. Using the Platte River basin as an example, we make the case that inherent flexibility and adaptability are vital for the next iteration of natural resources management policies affecting stressed basins. We argue that this can be accomplished by nesting policy in a resilience framework, which we describe and attempt to operationalize for use across systems and at different levels of jurisdiction. As our current natural resources policies fail under the weight of looming global change, unprecedented demand for natural resources, and shifting land use, the need for a new generation of adaptive, flexible natural resources govern-ance emerges. Here we offer a prescription for just that, rooted in the social , ecological and political realities of the Platte River basin. Social-Ecological Resilience and Law in the Platte River Basin (PDF Download Available) . Available from: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/273678974_Social-Ecological_Resilience_and_Law_in_the_Platte_River_Basin [accessed Oct 18 2017].

Idaho Law Review↗
USGS2018

Quantification of the indirect use value of functional group diversity based on the ecological role of species in the ecosystem

An important issue in biodiversity valuation is gaining a better understanding of how biodiversity conservation affects economic activities and human welfare. Quantifying the economic benefits of biodiversity for human well-being is not straightforward. Here, we expand the ecosystem service cascade by (i) attributing a methodology to the different steps of the cascade to assess the effects of changes in functional group diversity on economic activities; (ii) including multiple attributes for defining functional diversity and (iii) integrating a dynamic ecological model simulating complex interactions and feedbacks between species with an economic model assessing the effects of changes in functional group diversity for gross revenues. The stepwise methodological framework integrates a production function approach with a market price-based approach in order to investigate the indirect use value of functional group diversity based on the ecological role of species in the ecosystem. The methodology is applied to estimate the relationship between the gross economic value of Chinook salmon (Pacific Northwest, United States) and the diversity of freshwater macroinvertebrates. The results of our analysis emphasize the importance of biological diversity for sustaining ecosystem goods and services. The analysis provides a tractable framework for quantitatively exploring the economic consequences of changes in functional group diversity.

Ecological Economics↗
USGS2012

Plague

Plague offers readers an overview of this highly complex disease caused by the bacteria Yersinia pestis . The history of the disease, as well as information about Yersinia pestis and its transmission by fleas, is described. The section Geographic Distribution presents areas of the world and United States where plague occurs most commonly in rodents and humans. Species Susceptibility describes infection and disease rates in rodents, humans, and other animals. Disease Ecology considers the complex relationship among rodents, domestic and wild animals, and humans and explores possible routes of transmission and maintenance of the organism in the environment. The effects of climate change, the potential for Y. pestis to be used as a bioweapon, and the impact of plague on conservation of wildlife are considered in Points to Ponder . Disease Prevention and Control outlines methods of prevention and treatment including vaccination for prairie dogs and black-footed ferrets. A glossary of technical terms is included. Tonie E. Rocke, the senior author and an epizootiologist at the USGS National Wildlife Health Center (NWHC), is a prominent researcher on oral vaccination of prairie dogs to prevent plague. She is currently working to transfer her success in the laboratory to the field to control plague in prairie dogs. Rachel C. Abbott, a biologist at the NWHC, is assisting Dr. Rocke in this process and will coordinate field trials of the vaccine. Milt Friend, first director of the NWHC, wrote the foreword. Plague is intended for scholars and the general public. The material is presented in a simple, straightforward manner that serves both audiences. Numerous illustrations and tables provide easily understood summaries of key points and information.

Circular↗
USGS2020

Identifying research needs to inform white-nose syndrome management decisions

Ecological understanding of host–pathogen dynamics is the basis for managing wildlife diseases. Since 2008, federal, state, and provincial agencies and tribal and private organizations have collaborated on bat and white‐nose syndrome (WNS) surveillance and monitoring, research, and management programs. Accordingly, scientists and managers have learned a lot about the hosts, pathogen, and dynamics of WNS. However, effective mitigation measures to combat WNS remain elusive. Host–pathogen systems are complex, and identifying ecological research priorities to improve management, choosing among various actions, and deciding when to implement those actions can be challenging. Through a cross‐disciplinary approach, a group of diverse subject matter experts created an influence diagram used to identify uncertainties and prioritize research needs for WNS management. Critical knowledge gaps were identified, particularly with respect to how WNS dynamics and impacts may differ among bat species. We highlight critical uncertainties and identify targets for WNS research. This tool can be used to maximize the likelihood of achieving bat conservation goals within the context and limitations of specific real‐world scenarios.

Conservation Biology↗
USGS2024

A new method for bioassessment of ecosystems with complex communities and environmental gradients

Bioassessment of complex and heterogeneous ecosystems is a challenge when there are multiple, strong, natural environmental gradients; unknown, or spatially varying, mixtures of stressors; and large numbers of taxa with unknown responses to both the environmental gradients and the stressors. Current methods of bioassessment are not designed for use under this set of constraints. To address this gap, we have developed an assessment method appropriate for well-sampled, heterogeneous systems with many taxa. In the bioassessment described below, we model taxa occurrence as a function of natural environmental gradients, then use residual covariance patterns between all pairs of taxa to estimate the impact of human disturbance across sites as a latent construct. The derivation of the method from an underlying causal model allows the metric value at each site and the associated taxa responses to be partitioned into contributions from a set of putative stressors. We apply this method as a case study to the subtidal benthic invertebrate community of Puget Sound, WA (USA) and demonstrate a partial decomposition of the metric values to a set of stressors including sediment organic carbon, nitrogen, metals, and organic pollutants. While this method provides new opportunities to estimate, communicate, and understand the ecological condition of complex, heterogeneous ecosystems, due to the requirement for broad, detailed data to inform its estimates, it will likely be most appropriate for monitoring programs.

Washington↗
USGS2010

The transboundary nature of seabird ecology

The term ‘seabird’ is generally applied to avian species that forage in the marine environment over open water. Seabirds typically nest in colonies and are long-lived species with low annual reproductive rates. Seabird breeding sites typically occur on islands or along coasts and as such are often at the boundaries of ecological or political zones. During the breeding season, seabirds cross a very distinct terrestrial/marine ecological boundary on a regular basis to forage. Even relatively ‘local’ species cross multiple jurisdictions within a day (e.g., state lands and waters, and federal waters) while pelagic species may transit through international waters on a daily, weekly, or monthly time-frame. Seabird life-histories expose individuals and populations to environmental conditions affecting both terrestrial and marine habitats. The wide-ranging and transboundary nature of seabird ecology also exposes these species to various environmental and anthropogenic forces such as contamination, commercial fisheries and climate forcing that also are transboundary in nature. Therefore, wherever conservation of seabirds or the management of their populations is the goal, consideration must be given to ecosystem dynamics on land and at sea. Because the jurisdiction of agencies does not cross the land-sea boundary in the same manner as the seabirds they are managing, these efforts are facilitated by multi-agency communication and collaboration. By their very nature and by the nature of the systems that they must function within, seabirds embody the complexity of wildlife ecology and conservation in the twenty-first century.

Book chapter↗
USGS2014

Quantifying and valuing ecosystem services: An application of ARIES to the San Pedro River basin, USA

A large body of research exists that identifies and values ecosystem services - the benefits that ecosystems provide to humans (MA, 2005) - and their underlying ecological processes. However, the development of software decision support tools that integrate ecology, economics and geography that can be independently used within the public, private, academic and NGO sectors is a more recent phenomenon (Ruhl et al., 2007; Daily et al., 2009). Spurred by growing demand for more sophisticated analysis of the social and economic consequences of land management decisions, the US Department of Interior - Bureau of Land Management (BLM) launched a pilot project with the US Geological Survey (USGS) to assess the usefulness and feasibility of ecosystem service assessment and valuation tools to provide inputs to decision-making. The project analysed ecosystem services in the US portion of the San Pedro River watershed, which includes the BLM-managed San Pedro Riparian National Conservation Area (SPRNCA), to improve the understanding of complex social and ecological relationships that transcend administrative divisions. The BLM manages some 99 million hectares, primarily in the western United States, and 283 million hectares of sub-surface mineral estate. BLM's multiple-use mission requires that it appropriately balance non-extractive uses such as habitat conservation, recreation and archaeological heritage protection and the extractive use of resources such as timber, oil and gas, coal, uranium, and other minerals.

Arizona↗
USGS2016

Species traits and catchment-scale habitat factors influence the occurrence of freshwater mussel populations and assemblages

Conservation of freshwater unionid mussels presents unique challenges due to their distinctive life cycle, cryptic occurrence and imperilled status. Relevant ecological information is urgently needed to guide their management and conservation. We adopted a modelling approach, which is a novel application to freshwater mussels to enhance inference on rare species, by borrowing data among species in a hierarchical framework to conduct the most comprehensive occurrence analysis for freshwater mussels to date. We incorporated imperfect detection to more accurately examine effects of biotic and abiotic factors at multiple scales on the occurrence of 14 mussel species and the entire assemblage of the Tar River Basin of North Carolina, U.S.A. The single assemblage estimate of detection probability for all species was 0.42 (95% CI, 0.36–0.47) with no species- or site-specific detection effects identified. We empirically observed 15 mussel species in the basin but estimated total species richness at 21 (95% CI, 16–24) when accounting for imperfect detection. Mean occurrence probability among species ranged from 0.04 (95% CI, 0.01–0.16) for Alasmidonta undulata, an undescribed Lampsilis sp. , and Strophitus undulatus to 0.67 (95% CI, 0.42–0.86) for Elliptio icterina . Median occurrence probability among sites was <0.30 for all species with the exception of E. icterina . Site occurrence probability generally related to mussel conservation status, with reduced occurrence for endangered and threatened species. Catchment-scale abiotic variables (stream power, agricultural land use) and species traits (brood time, host specificity, tribe) influenced the occurrence of mussel assemblages more than reach- or microhabitat-scale features. Our findings reflect the complexity of mussel ecology and indicate that habitat restoration alone may not be adequate for mussel conservation. Catchment-scale management can benefit an entire assemblage, but species-specific strategies may be necessary for successful conservation. The hierarchical multispecies modelling approach revealed findings that could not be elucidated by other means, and the approach may be applied more broadly to other river basins and regions. Accurate measures of assemblage dynamics, such as occurrence and species richness, are required to create management plans for effective conservation.

Freshwater Biology↗
USGS2023

Observed and projected functional reorganization of riverine fish assemblages from global change

Climate and land-use/land-cover change (‘global change’) are restructuring biodiversity, globally. Broadly, environmental conditions are expected to become warmer, potentially drier (particularly in arid regions), and more anthropogenically developed in the future, with spatiotemporally complex effects on ecological communities. We used functional traits to inform Chesapeake Bay Watershed fish responses to future climate and land-use scenarios (2030, 2060, and 2090). We modelled the future habitat suitability of focal species representative of key trait axes (substrate, flow, temperature, reproduction, and trophic) and used functional and phylogenetic metrics to assess variable assemblage responses across physiographic regions and habitat sizes (headwaters through large rivers). Our focal species analysis projected future habitat suitability gains for carnivorous species with preferences for warm water, pool habitats, and fine or vegetated substrates. At the assemblage level, models projected decreasing habitat suitability for cold-water, rheophilic, and lithophilic individuals but increasing suitability for carnivores in the future across all regions. Projected responses of functional and phylogenetic diversity and redundancy differed among regions. Lowland regions were projected to become less functionally and phylogenetically diverse and more redundant while upland regions (and smaller habitat sizes) were projected to become more diverse and less redundant. Next, we assessed how this model projected assemblage changes 2005-2030 related to observed time-series trends (1999–2016). Halfway through the initial projecting period (2005–2030), we found observed trends broadly followed modelled patterns of increasing proportions of carnivorous and lithophilic individuals in lowland regions but showed opposing patterns for functional and phylogenetic metrics. Leveraging observed and predicted analyses simultaneously helps elucidate the instances and causes of discrepancies between model predictions and ongoing observed changes. Collectively, results highlight the complexity of global change impacts across broad landscapes that likely relate to differences in assemblages’ intrinsic sensitivities and external exposure to stressors.

Global Change Biology↗
USGS2017

Pneumonia in bighorn sheep: Risk and resilience

Infectious disease was an important driver of historic declines and extirpations of bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis) in North America and continues to impede population restoration and management. Domestic sheep have long been linked to pneumonia outbreaks in bighorn sheep and this association has now been confirmed in 13 captive commingling experiments. However, ecological and etiological complexities still hinder our understanding and control of the disease. We provide an overview of the current state of knowledge about the biology and management of respiratory disease in bighorn sheep and propose strategies for moving forward. Epizootic pneumonia in bighorn sheep is polymicrobial. Mycoplasma ovipneumoniae, a bacterium host-specific to Caprinae and commonly carried by healthy domestic sheep and goats appears to be a necessary primary agent. All-age epizootics following introduction of M. ovipneumoniae along with other pathogens into bighorn sheep populations are usually severe (median mortality 47%) but fatality rates vary widely, from 15 – 100%. Disease severity may be influenced by the strain of M. ovipneumoniae, by secondary bacterial and viral pathogens, and by factors affecting transmission and host immunity. Once introduced, M. ovipneumoniae can persist in bighorn sheep populations for decades. Carrier dams transmit the pathogen to their susceptible lambs, triggering fatal pneumonia outbreaks in nursery groups, which limits recruitment and slows or prevents population recovery. The result is that demographic costs of pathogen persistence often outweigh the impacts of the initial invasion and die-off. There is currently no effective vaccine or antibiotic for domestic or wild sheep and to date, no management actions have been successful in reducing morbidity, mortality, or disease spread once pathogen invasion has occurred. Molecular-based strain typing suggests that spillover of M. ovipneumoniae into bighorn sheep populations from domestic small ruminants is ongoing, and that consequences of pathogen invasion are amplified by movements of infected bighorn sheep. Therefore, current disease management strategies focus on reducing risk of spillover from reservoir populations of domestic small ruminants and on limiting transmission among bighorn sheep. A broad array of approaches has been tried and more are needed to prevent pathogen introduction, induce disease fadeout in persistently infected populations, and promote population resilience across the diverse landscapes bighorn sheep inhabit. A comprehensive examination of disease dynamics across populations could help elucidate how disease fades out naturally and if population resilience can be increased in the face of infection. Cross-jurisdictional adaptive management experiments and transdisciplinary collaboration, including partnerships with members of the domestic sheep and goat community, are needed to facilitate innovation and speed progress towards sustainable solutions for managing pneumonia to protect and restore bighorn sheep populations.

California, Idaho, Nevada, Oregon, Utah, Washingto↗
USGS2019

Reducing wet ammonium deposition in Rocky Mountain National Park: The development and evaluation of a pilot early warning system for agricultural operations in eastern Colorado

Agricultural emissions are the primary source of ammonia (NH3) deposition in Rocky Mountain National Park (RMNP), a Class I area, that is granted special air quality protections under the Clean Air Act. Between 2014 and 2016, the pilot phase of the Colorado agricultural nitrogen early warning system (CANEWS) was developed for agricultural producers to voluntarily and temporarily minimize emissions of NH3 during periods of upslope winds. The CANEWS was created using trajectory analyses driven by outputs from an ensemble of numerical weather forecasts together with the climatological expertise of human forecasters. Here, we discuss the methods for the CANEWS and offer preliminary analyses of 33 months of the CANEWS based on atmospheric deposition data from two sites in RMNP as well as responses from agricultural producers after warnings were issued. Results showed that the CANEWS accurately predicted 6 of 9 high N deposition weeks at a lower-elevation observation site, but only 4 of 11 high N deposition weeks at a higher-elevation site. Sixty agricultural producers from 39 of Colorado’s agricultural operations volunteered for the CANEWS, and a two-way line of communication between agricultural producers and scientists was formed. For each warning issued, an average of 23 producers responded to a post-warning survey. Over 75% of responding CANEWS participants altered their practices after an alert. While the current effort was insufficient to reduce atmospheric deposition, we were encouraged by the collaborative spirit between agricultural, scientific, and resource management communities. Solving a broad and complex social-ecological problem requires both a technological approach, such as the CANEWS, and collaboration and trust from all participants, including agricultural producers, land managers, university researchers, and environmental agencies.

Colorado↗
USGS2016

Panarchy use in environmental science for risk and resilience planning

Environmental sciences have an important role in informing sustainable management of built environments by providing insights about the drivers and potentially negative impacts of global environmental change. Here, we discuss panarchy theory, a multi-scale hierarchical concept that accounts for the dynamism of complex socio-ecological systems, especially for those systems with strong cross-scale feedbacks. The idea of panarchy underlies much of system resilience, focusing on how systems respond to known and unknown threats. Panarchy theory can provide a framework for qualitative and quantitative research and application in the environmental sciences, which can in turn inform the ongoing efforts in socio-technical resilience thinking and adaptive and transformative approaches to management.

Environment Systems and Decisions↗
USGS2018

Machine learning for ecosystem services

Recent developments in machine learning have expanded data-driven modelling (DDM) capabilities, allowing artificial intelligence to infer the behaviour of a system by computing and exploiting correlations between observed variables within it. Machine learning algorithms may enable the use of increasingly available ‘big data’ and assist applying ecosystem service models across scales, analysing and predicting the flows of these services to disaggregated beneficiaries. We use the Weka and ARIES software to produce two examples of DDM: firewood use in South Africa and biodiversity value in Sicily, respectively. Our South African example demonstrates that DDM (64–91% accuracy) can identify the areas where firewood use is within the top quartile with comparable accuracy as conventional modelling techniques (54–77% accuracy). The Sicilian example highlights how DDM can be made more accessible to decision makers, who show both capacity and willingness to engage with uncertainty information. Uncertainty estimates, produced as part of the DDM process, allow decision makers to determine what level of uncertainty is acceptable to them and to use their own expertise for potentially contentious decisions. We conclude that DDM has a clear role to play when modelling ecosystem services, helping produce interdisciplinary models and holistic solutions to complex socio-ecological issues.

Ecosystem Services↗