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Uncertainty in quantitative analyses of topographic change: Error propagation and the role of thresholding

Topographic surveys inevitably contain error, introducing uncertainty into estimates of volumetric or mean change based on the differencing of repeated surveys. In the geomorphic community, uncertainty has often been framed as a problem of separating out real change from apparent change due purely to error, and addressed by removing measured change considered indistinguishable from random noise from analyses (thresholding). Thresholding is important when quantifying gross changes (i.e. total erosion or total deposition), which are systematically biased by random errors in stable parts of a landscape. However, net change estimates are not substantially influenced by those same random errors, and the use of thresholds results in inherently biased, and potentially misleading, estimates of net change and uncertainty. More generally, thresholding is unrelated to the important process of propagating uncertainty in order to place uncertainty bounds around final estimates. Error propagation methods for uncorrelated, correlated, and systematic errors are presented. Those equations demonstrate that uncertainties in modern net change analyses, as well as in gross change analyses using reasonable thresholds, are likely to be dominated by low‐magnitude but highly correlated or systematic errors, even after careful attempts to reduce those errors. In contrast, random errors with little to no correlation largely cancel to negligible levels when averaged or summed. Propagated uncertainty is then typically insensitive to the precision of individual measurements, and is instead defined by the relative mean error (accuracy) over the area of interest. Given that real‐world mean elevation changes in many landscape settings are often similar in magnitude to potential mean errors in repeat topographic analyses, reducing highly correlated or systematic errors will be central to obtaining accurate change estimates, while placing uncertainty bounds around those results provides essential context for their interpretation.

Earth Surface Processes and Landforms

Estimating sand concentrations using ADCP‐based acoustic inversion in a large fluvial system characterized by bi‐modal suspended‐sediment distributions

Quantifying sediment flux within rivers is a challenge for many disciplines due, mainly, to difficulties inherent to traditional sediment sampling methods. These methods are operationally complex, high cost, and high risk. Additionally, the resulting data provide a low spatial and temporal resolution estimate of the total sediment flux, which has impeded advances in the understanding of the hydro‐geomorphic characteristics of rivers. Acoustic technologies have been recognized as a leading tool for increasing the resolution of sediment data by relating their echo intensity level measurements to suspended sediment. Further effort is required to robustly test and develop these techniques across a wide range of conditions found in natural river systems. This article aims to evaluate the application of acoustic inversion techniques using commercially available, down‐looking acoustic Doppler current profilers (ADCPs) in quantifying suspended sediment in a large sand bed river with varying bi‐modal particle size distributions, wash load and suspended‐sand ratios, and water stages. To achieve this objective, suspended sediment was physically sampled along the Paraná River, Argentina, under various hydro‐sedimentological regimes. Two ADCPs emitting different sound frequencies were used to simultaneously profile echo intensity level within the water column. Using the sonar equation, calibrations were determined between suspended‐sand concentrations and acoustic backscatter to solve the inverse problem. The study also analyzed the roles played by each term of the sonar equation, such as ADCP frequency, power supply, instrument constants, and particle size distributions typically found in sand bed rivers, on sediment attenuation and backscatter. Calibrations were successfully developed between corrected backscatter and suspended‐sand concentrations for all sites and ADCP frequencies, resulting in mean suspended‐sand concentration estimates within about 40% of the mean sampled concentrations. Noise values, calculated using the sonar equation and sediment sample characteristics, were fairly constant across evaluations, suggesting that they could be applied to other sand bed rivers.

Earth Surface Processes and Landforms

Measurement method has a larger impact than spatial scale for plot-scale field-saturated hydraulic conductivity (Kfs) after wildfire and prescribed fire in forests

Abstract Wildfires raise risks of floods, debris flows, major geomorphologic and sedimentologic change, and water quality and quantity shifts. A principal control on the magnitude of these changes is field-saturated hydraulic conductivity (Kfs), which dictates surface runoff generation and is a key input into numerical models. This work synthesizes 73 Kfs datasets from the literature in the first year following fire at the plot scale (≤ 10 m2). A meta-analysis using a random effects analysis showed significant differences between burned and unburned Kfs. The reductions in Kfs after fire, expressed by the ratio of Kfs Burned / Kfs Unburned, were 0.46 (95% confidence interval of 0.31-0.70) combining wildfire and prescribed fire and 0.3 (95% confidence interval of 0.13-0.71) for wildfire. No significant differences for Kfs were observed between wildfire and prescribed fire or moderate and high fire severity. Both Kfs magnitude and variability depended more on measurement method than measurement support area at the plot scale, with methods applying head ≥0.5 cm producing larger estimates of Kfs. It is recommended that post-fire efforts to characterize Kfs for modeling or process-based interpretations use methods that reflect the dominant infiltration processes: tension infiltrometers and simulated rainfall methods when soil matrix flow dominates and ponded head methods when macropore flow is critical.

Earth Surface Processes and Landforms

Advances in computational morphodynamics using the International River Interface Cooperative (iRIC) software

Results from computational morphodynamics modeling of coupled flow-bed-sediment systems are described for ten applications as a review of recent advances in the field. Each of these applications is drawn from solvers included in the public-domain International River Interface Cooperative (iRIC) software package. For mesoscale river features such as bars, predictions of alternate and higher mode river bars are shown for flows with equilibrium sediment supply and for a single case of oversupplied sediment. For microscale bed features such as bedforms, computational results are shown for the development and evolution of two-dimensional bedforms using a simple closure-based two-dimensional model, for two- and three-dimensional ripples and dunes using a three-dimensional large-eddy simulation flow model coupled to a physics-based particle transport model, and for the development of bed streaks using a three-dimensional unsteady Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes solver with a simple sediment-transport treatment. Finally, macroscale or channel evolution treatments are used to examine the temporal development of meandering channels, a failure model for cantilevered banks, the effect of bank vegetation on channel width, the development of channel networks in tidal systems, and the evolution of bedrock channels. In all examples, computational morphodynamics results from iRIC solvers are shown to compare well to observations of natural bed morphology. For each of the three scales investigated here, brief suggestions for future work and potential research directions are offered.

Earth Surface Processes and Landforms

A physical model of the high-frequency seismic signal generated by debris flows

We propose a physical model for the high‐frequency (>1 Hz) spectral distribution of seismic power generated by debris flows. The modeled debris flow is assumed to have four regions where the impact rate and impulses are controlled by different mechanisms: the flow body, a coarser‐grained snout, a snout lip where particles fall from the snout on the bed, and a dilute front composed of saltating particles. We calculate the seismic power produced by this impact model in two end‐member scenarios, a thin‐flow and thick‐flow limit, which assume that the ratio of grain sizes to flow thicknesses are either near unity or much less than unity. The thin‐flow limit is more appropriate for boulder‐rich flows that are most likely to generate large seismic signals. As a flow passes a seismic station, the rise phase of the seismic amplitude is generated primarily by the snout while the decay phase is generated first by the snout and then the main flow body. The lip and saltating front generate a negligible seismic signal. When ground properties are known, seismic power depends most strongly on both particle diameter and average flow speed cubed, and also depends on length and width of the flow. The effective particle diameter for producing seismic power is substantially higher than the median grain size and close to the 73rd percentile for a realistic grain size distribution. We discuss how the model can be used to estimate effective particle diameter and average flow speed from an integrated measure of seismic power.

Earth Surface Processes and Landforms

Induced biological soil crust controls on wind erodibility and dust (PM10) emissions

Inducing biological soil crust (biocrust) development is an appealing approach for dust mitigation in drylands due to the resistance biocrusts can provide against erosion. Using a portable device, we evaluated dust emissions from surfaces either inoculated with biocrust, amended with a plant‐based soil stabilizer, or both at varying wind friction velocities. Four months after application, emissions from all treatments were either indistinguishable from or greater than controls, despite evidence of biocrust establishment. All treatments had greater surface roughness and showed more evidence of entrapment of windblown sediment than controls, factors which may have been partially responsible for elevated emissions. There was a synergistic effect of inoculation and stabilizer addition, resulting in a nearly two‐fold reduction in estimated emissions compared to either treatment alone. Stepwise regression analysis indicated that variables associated with surface crust strength (aggregate stability, penetration resistance) were negatively associated with emissions and variables associated with sediment supply (sand content, loose sediment cover) were positively associated with emissions. With more time to develop, the soil‐trapping activity and surface integrity of biocrust inoculum and soil stabilizer mixtures is expected to increase with the accumulation of surface biomass and enhancement of roughness through freeze–thaw cycles.

Utah

Controls on debris‐flow initiation on burned and unburned hillslopes during an exceptional rainstorm in southern New Mexico, USA

AbstractUsing observations from 688 debris flows, we analyse the hydrologic and landscape characteristics that influenced debris‐flow initiation mechanisms and locations in a watershed that had been partially burned by the 2012 Whitewater‐Baldy Complex Fire in the Gila Mountains, southern New Mexico. Debris flows can initiate due to different processes. Slopes can fail as discrete landslides and then become fluidized and move downstream as debris flows (landslide initiated) or progressive bulking of sediment from a distributed area can become channelized and concentrated as it moves downslope (runoff generated). In this study, we have an unusual opportunity to investigate both types of debris‐flow initiation mechanisms in our observations of debris flows, triggered by an exceptional rainstorm in the autumn of 2013. Additionally, we compare our observations with those of a dataset of 1138 debris flows in the Colorado Front Range, triggered during the same weather system. We found that runoff‐generated debris flows dominated in burn areas, and runoff required to start these flows could be well characterized by the Shields stress. Landslide‐initiated debris flows were dominant in unburned areas. Debris‐flow densities were tied to total rainfall and precipitation intensities. Like the observations in the Colorado Front Range, debris‐flow initiation locations were found primarily in areas of relatively sparse vegetation on south‐facing slopes between 25 and 40°, and with upslope contributing areas less than 1000 m 2 . In terms of preferential locations for debris‐flow initiations, 2013 vegetation coverage, approximated by Green–Red Vegetation Index metrics, proved to be more influential than the 2012 burn‐severity designation. The uniformity of observations between our study area and those in the Colorado Front Range indicate that the underlying hydrologic and landscape patterns of the debris‐flow initiation locations documented in these studies could be applicable to the wider southwest and Rocky Mountain regions.

New Mexico

Thresholds for post-wildfire debris flows: Insights from the Pinal Fire, Arizona, USA

Wildfire significantly alters the hydrologic properties of a burned area, leading to increases in overland flow, erosion, and the potential for runoff-generated debris flows. The initiation of debris flows in recently burned areas is well-characterized by rainfall intensity-duration (ID) thresholds. However, there is currently a paucity of data quantifying the rainfall intensities required to trigger post-wildfire debris flows, which limits our understanding of how and why rainfall ID thresholds vary in different climatic and geologic settings. In this study, we monitored debris-flow activity following the Pinal Fire in central Arizona, which differs from both a climatic and hydrogeomorphic perspective from other regions in the western U.S. where ID thresholds for post-wildfire debris flows are well-established, namely the Transverse Ranges of southern CA. Since the peak rainfall intensity within a rainstorm may exceed the rainfall intensity required to trigger a debris flow, the development of robust rainfall ID thresholds requires knowledge of the timing of debris flows within rainstorms. Existing post-wildfire debris-flow studies in Arizona only constrain the peak rainfall intensity within debris-flow-producing storms, which may far exceed the intensity that actually triggered the observed debris flow. In this study, we used pressure transducers within 5 burned drainage basins to constrain the timing of debris flows within rainstorms. Rainfall ID thresholds derived here from triggering rainfall intensities are, on average, 22 mm/h lower than ID thresholds derived under the assumption that the triggering intensity is equal to the maximum rainfall intensity recorded during a rainstorm. We then use a hydrologic model to demonstrate that the magnitude of the 15-minute rainfall ID threshold at the Pinal Fire site is associated with the rainfall intensity required to exceed a recently proposed dimensionless discharge threshold for debris-flow initiation. Model results further suggest that previously observed differences in regional ID thresholds between Arizona and the San Gabriel Mountains of southern CA may be attributed, in large part, to differences in the hydraulic properties of burned soils.

Arizona

Evaluating indicators of marsh vulnerability to sea level rise along a historical marsh loss gradient

Sea level rise (SLR) is threatening coastal marshes, leading to large‐scale marsh loss in several micro‐tidal systems. Early recognition of marsh vulnerability to SLR is critical in these systems to aid managers to take appropriate restoration or mitigation measures. However, it is not clear if current marsh vulnerability indicators correctly assess long‐term stability of the marsh system. In this study, two indicators of marsh stress were studied: (i) the skewness of the marsh elevation distribution, and (ii) the abundance of codominant species in mixtures. We combined high‐precision elevation measurements (GPS), LiDAR imagery, vegetation surveys and water level measurements to study these indicators in an organogenic micro‐tidal system (Blackwater River, Maryland, USA), where large‐scale historical conversion from marshes to shallow ponds resulted in a gradient of increasing marsh loss. The two indicators reveal increasingly stressed marshes along the marsh loss gradient, but suggest that the field site with the most marsh loss seems to experience less stress. For the latter site, previous research indicates that wind waves generated on interior marsh ponds contribute to lateral erosion of surrounding marsh edges and hence marsh loss. The eroded marsh sediment might temporarily provide the remaining marshes with the necessary sediment to keep up with relative SLR. However, this is only a short‐term alleviation, as lateral marsh edge erosion and sediment export lead to severe marsh loss in the long term. Our findings indicate that marsh elevation skewness and the abundance of codominant species in mixtures can be used to supplement existing marsh stress indicators, but that additional indices such as fetch length and the sediment budget should be included to account for lateral marsh erosion and sediment export and to correctly assess long‐term stability of micro‐tidal marshes.

Maryland

Measuring channel planform change from image time series: A generalizable, spatially distributed, probabilistic method for quantifying uncertainty

Channels change in response to natural or anthropogenic fluctuations in streamflow and/or sediment supply and measurements of channel change are critical to many river management applications. Whereas repeated field surveys are costly and time‐consuming, remote sensing can be used to detect channel change at multiple temporal and spatial scales. Repeat images have been widely used to measure long‐term channel change, but these measurements are only significant if the magnitude of change exceeds the uncertainty. Existing methods for characterizing uncertainty have two important limitations. First, while the use of a spatially variable image co‐registration error avoids the assumption that errors are spatially uniform, this type of error, as originally formulated, can only be applied to linear channel adjustments, which provide less information on channel change than polygons of erosion and deposition. Second, previous methods use a level‐of‐detection (LoD) threshold to remove non‐significant measurements, which is problematic because real changes that occurred but were smaller than the LoD threshold would be removed. In this study, we present a new method of quantifying uncertainty associated with channel change based on probabilistic, spatially varying estimates of co‐registration error and digitization uncertainty that obviates a LoD threshold. The spatially distributed probabilistic (SDP) method can be applied to both linear channel adjustments and polygons of erosion and deposition, making this the first uncertainty method generalizable to all metrics of channel change. Using a case study from the Yampa River, Colorado, we show that the SDP method reduced the magnitude of uncertainty and enabled us to detect smaller channel changes as significant. Additionally, the distributional information provided by the SDP method allowed us to report the magnitude of channel change with an appropriate level of confidence in cases where a simple LoD approach yielded an indeterminate result.

Earth Surface Processes and Landforms

Geometry of obstacle marks at instream boulders-Integration of laboratory investigations and field observations

Obstacle marks are instream bedforms, typically composed of an upstream frontal scour hole and a downstream sediment accumulation in the vicinity of an obstacle. Local scouring at infrastructure (e.g. bridge piers) is a well‐studied phenomenon in hydraulic engineering, while less attention is given to the time‐dependent evolution of frontal scour holes at instream boulders and their geometric relations (depth to width, and length ratio). Furthermore, a comparison between laboratory studies and field observations is rare. Therefore, the morphodynamic importance of such scour features to fluvial sediment transport and morphological change is largely unknown. In this study, obstacle marks at boulder‐like obstructions were physically modelled in 30 unscaled process‐focused flume experiments (runtime per experiment ≥ 5760 min) at a range of flows (subcritical, clear‐water conditions, emergent and submerged water levels) and boundary conditions designed to represent the field setting (i.e. obstacle tilting, and limited thickness of the alluvial layer). Additionally, geometries of scour holes at 90 in‐situ boulders (diameter ≥ 1 m) located in a 50‐km segment of the Colorado River in Marble Canyon (AZ) were measured from a 1 m‐resolution digital elevation model. Flume experiments reveal similar evolution of local scouring, irrespective of hydraulic conditions, controlled by the scour incision, whereas the thickness of the alluvial layer and obstacle tilting into the evolving frontal scour hole limit incision. Three temporal evolution phases—(1) rapid incision, (2) decreasing incision, and (3) scour widening—are identified based on statistical analysis of spatiotemporal bed elevation time series. A quantitative model is presented that mechanistically predicts enlargement in local scour length and width based on (1) scour depth, (2) the inclination of scour slopes, and (3) the planform area of the frontal scour hole bottom. The comparison of field observations and laboratory results demonstrates scale invariance of geometry, which implies similitude of processes and form rather than equifinality.

Earth Surface Processes and Landforms

Channel response to a dam‐removal sediment pulse captured at high‐temporal resolution using routine gage data

In this study, we captured how a river channel responds to a sediment pulse originating from a dam removal using multiple lines of evidence derived from streamflow gages along the Patapsco River, Maryland, USA. Gages captured characteristics of the sediment pulse, including travel times of its leading edge (~7.8 km yr −1 ) and peak (~2.6 km yr −1 ) and suggest both translation and increasing dispersion. The pulse also changed local hydraulics and energy conditions, increasing flow velocities and Froude number, due to bed fining, homogenization and/or slope adjustment. Immediately downstream of the dam, recovery to pre‐pulse conditions occurred within the year, but farther downstream recovery was slower, with the tail of the sediment pulse working through the lower river by the end of the study 7 years later. The patterns and timing of channel change associated with the sediment pulse were not driven by large flow or suspended sediment‐transporting events, with change mostly occurring during lower flows. This suggests pulse mobility was controlled by process‐factors largely independent of high flow. In contrast, persistent changes occurred to out‐of‐channel flooding dynamics. Stage associated with flooding increased during the arrival of the sediment pulse, 1 to 2 years after dam removal, suggesting persistent sediment deposition at the channel margins and nearby floodplain. This resulted in National Weather Service‐indicated flood stages being attained by 3–43% smaller discharges compared to earlier in the study period. This study captured a two‐signal response from the sediment pulse: (1) short‐ to medium‐term (weeks to months) translation and dispersion within the channel, resulting in aggradation and recovery of bed elevations and changing local hydraulics; and (2) dispersion and persistent longer‐term (years) effects of sediment deposition on overbank surfaces. This study further demonstrated the utility of US Geological Survey gage data to quantify geomorphic change, increase temporal resolution, and provide insights into trajectories of change over varying spatial and temporal scales.

Maryland

Flooding duration and volume more important than peak discharge in explaining 18 years of gravel–cobble river change

Floods play a critical role in geomorphic change, but whether peak magnitude, duration, volume, or frequency determines the resulting magnitude of erosion and deposition is a question often proposed in geomorphic effectiveness studies. This study investigated that question using digital elevation model differencing to compare and contrast three hydrologically distinct epochs of topographic change spanning 18 years in the 37-km gravel–cobble lower Yuba River in northern California, USA. Scour and fill were analysed by volume at segment and geomorphic reach scales. Each epoch's hydrology was characterized using 15-min and daily averaged flow to obtain distinct peak and recurrence, duration, and volume metrics. Epochs 1 (1999–2008) and 3 (2014–2017) were wetter than average with large floods reaching 3206 and 2466 m 3 /s, respectively, though of different flood durations. Epoch 2 (2008–2014) was a drought period with only four brief moderate floods (peak of 1245 m 3 /s). Total volumetric changes showed that major geomorphic response occurred primarily during large flood events; however, total scour and net export of sediment varied greatly, with 20 times more export in epoch 3 compared to epoch 1. The key finding was that greater peak discharge was not correlated with greater net and total erosion; differences were better explained by duration and volume above floodway-filling stage. This finding highlights the importance of considering flood duration and volume, along with peak, to assess flood magnitude in the context of flood management, frequency analysis, and resulting geomorphic changes.

California

Spatial and temporal controls on proglacial erosion rates: A comparison of four basins on Mount Rainier, 1960 to 2017

The retreat of alpine glaciers since the mid-19th century has triggered rapid landscape adjustments in many headwater basins. However, the degree to which decadal-scale glacier retreat is associated with systematic or substantial changes in overall coarse sediment export, with the potential to impact downstream river dynamics, remains poorly understood. Here, we use repeat topographic surveys to assess geomorphic change in four partly-glaciated basins on a stratovolcano (Mount Rainier) in Washington State at roughly decadal intervals from 1960 to 2017. The proglacial extents of the four basins show distinct geomorphic trajectories, ranging from substantial and sustained net erosion to relatively inactive with net deposition. These different trajectories correspond to differences in initial (1960) valley floor gradients, and can be effectively understood as valley floor grade adjustments. Significant erosion was most often accomplished by debris flows triggered by extreme rainfall or glacial outburst floods, though a single rockfall mobilized more material than all other events combined. Year-to-year runoff events had little measurable geomorphic impact. Exported material tended to accumulate in broad deposits within several kilometers of source areas and largely remained there through the end of the study period. Over 10- to 100-year timescales, we nd that the impact of glacier retreat on coarse sediment yield may then vary substantially according to the geometry and storage trends of the newly-exposed valley floor; the timing of that response may also be dictated, and potentially obscured, by stochastic and/or extreme events.

Washington

Sediment-ecological connectivity in a large river network

Sediment eroded from the headwaters of a large basin strongly influences channels and ecosystems far downstream, but the connection is often difficult to trace. Disturbance-dependent riparian trees are thought to rely primarily on floods for formation of the sand bars necessary for seedling establishment, but pulses of sediment should also promote formation of such features. In order to expand understanding of the role of sediment connectivity in governing ecological processes, here we explore the hypothesis that cottonwood forest along the Green and Yampa Rivers in Utah and Colorado are dominated by trees established a century ago during a period of extensive channel migration caused by significant headwater erosion. Analysis of historical documents and aerial photographs suggests that three key tributaries of the Yampa River underwent significant historical erosion from roughly 1880 to 1940. Average width and depth of tributaries with defined arroyos increased two to six times from historical surveys, resulting in the export of ~30 million metric tons of sediment, sizably increasing the sediment load and channel migration rate of the Yampa and Green Rivers. Establishment of major portions of several downstream cottonwood forests occurred during this period of historical erosion, increased sediment loads, and heightened channel migration rates, and the area of forest dating to that time is much greater than can be explained by high flows alone. Viewed collectively, our findings suggest tributary erosion played a vital role in successful downstream forest establishment, a link we contend is best illustrated through a sediment-ecological connectivity framework. Broadly, this framework facilitates consideration of linkages between morphological and ecological processes at the watershed-scale. Development and utilization of a watershed-scale sediment-ecological connectivity perspective highlights the value of sediment as a critical ecological resource to be managed jointly with flow to ensure the maintenance of vital riverine ecosystems.

Colorado, Utah

River floodplain abandonment and channel deepening coincide with the onset of clear-cut logging in a coastal California redwood forest

Changes in both land use and climate can alter the balance of transport capacity and sediment supply in rivers. Hence, the primary driver of recent incision or aggradation in alluvial channels is often unclear. The San Lorenzo River on the central coast of California is one location where both climate and land use—specifically, clear-cut forestry of coastal redwoods—could explain recent vertical incision and floodplain abandonment. At our field site on the San Lorenzo, we estimate the magnitude of recent incision using both the ratio of bankfull to critical Shields numbers ( τ bf * / τ c * "> 𝜏 ∗ 𝑏𝑓 / 𝜏 ∗ 𝑐 ) and the geomorphically effective discharge, calculated from historical gauge data. The Shields number ratio suggests that the normalized bankfull stress of the San Lorenzo River is in the upper 1–2% of West Coast rivers, and the effective discharge corresponds to flow depths ~2–4 m below current bankfull conditions. Radiocarbon ages from detrital charcoal in floodplain sediment reveal active floodplain deposition during the 1600s and possibly into the 1800s, constraining the timing of incision to the last few centuries. Multiple hanging tributaries above the mainstem San Lorenzo River, along with patterns in vegetation on terrace surfaces, corroborate our estimates of the magnitude and timing of incision. Taken together, our findings suggest that floodplain abandonment in this reach was mainly due to methods employed during logging that increased shear stress on the channel bed and reduced sediment storage capacity. We suggest that direct channel modifications in rivers can counterbalance increases in sediment delivery due to clear-cutting, resulting in channel incision rather than aggradation. Today, a young, lower surface appears to be forming adjacent to the San Lorenzo River, which we interpret as an incipient floodplain that is in equilibrium with modern sediment supply and transport capacity.

California

Influences of channel and floodplain modification on expansion of woody vegetation into Catahoula Lake, Louisiana, USA

Ecosystem structure of wetlands in managed floodplains depends on hydrological processes controlled by geomorphology and water management. Overlapping effects of direct modifications and geomorphic adjustments to management can combine to trigger changes to floodplain ecosystem structure. We examined the case of woody vegetation encroaching into the depressional Catahoula Lake, Louisiana, in the context of regional hydrologic and geomorphic modification in the floodplain of the Mississippi River. Historical aerial photographs indicated woody encroachment into Catahoula Lake for at least 80 years, and the rate of expansion has increased in recent decades. Historical stage analysis revealed that the downstream Red–Atchafalaya–Mississippi River system controls the lower limit of the lake water level when the large rivers are high, but channel enlargement and other hydrological changes there have reduced the frequency of backwater flooding by 42% since 1880. In addition, operation of the water control structure on the lake has altered its hydrological regime to be more regular among years. Historic stage analysis revealed current lake levels are lower in the high-water spring, less variable in the dry period, and lack the extreme high-water events of 100+ years ago, all of which facilitate the expansion of woody vegetation.

Louisiana

Hydrologic modification and channel evolution degrades connectivity on the Atchafalaya River floodplain

The Atchafalaya River Basin is the largest remaining forested wetland in the contiguous United States. Since 1960, dredging and channel erosion in the Basin have resulted in changes to the hydrologic connectivity that have not been quantified. Analyses were conducted to determine the hydraulic and geomorphic factors that have changed since discharge became controlled that may have decreased river/floodplain connectivity. We examined: (1) stage/discharge relationships from 1960 to 2014; (2) hydroperiods across the floodplain; (3) discharge distribution to the floodplain by comparing discharge measurements from 1959–1968 to 2005–2012; and (4) channel cross-sections and floodplain elevations. Our results indicate that much of the floodplain no longer receives headwater discharge (upstream to downstream, > 200 km 2 ) or receives too little discharge to alleviate stagnancy and hypoxia in the forested wetland at lower stages. Large portions of the Basin (400 km 2 ) have low water levels controlled by channel geomorphology and sea-level rise that inundate the forested floodplain for more than 50% of the calendar year. This extended duration of inundation contributes to hypoxia and likely reduces nutrient retention. The confinement of discharge to a large efficient channel compromises the ability of this system to respond to sea-level rise and subsidence. This study provides insight to the effects of flood management projects along Coastal Plain rivers and deltas.

Louisiana