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USGS2019

Using scenarios to evaluate vulnerability of grassland communities to climate change in the Southern Great Plains of the United States

Scenario planning is a useful tool for identifying key vulnerabilities of ecological systems to changing climates, informed by the potential outcomes for a set of divergent, plausible, and relevant climate scenarios. We evaluated potential vulnerabilities of grassland communities to changing climate in the Southern Great Plains (SGP) and the Landscape Conservation Design pilot area (LCD) for the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, Science Applications Program, Great Plains Landscape Conservation Cooperative. Four climate scenarios (warm-dry, warm-wet, hot-dry, and hot-wet) from atmospheric-ocean general circulation models were selected to represent a suite of plausible future climatic conditions. For each scenario, and for contemporary climatic conditions, we predicted the spatial patterns of relative productivity for indicator grass species using statistical models of relative above-ground net primary productivity (hereafter, productivity) based on temperature, precipitation, and soil texture (percent sand, silt, or clay). Two indicator grass species were selected to represent each of four focal grassland communities: semi-desert grasslands, shortgrass prairie, mixed-grass prairie, and tallgrass prairie. Changes in spatial patterning of bioclimatic conditions conducive for each indicator species as predicted for each climate scenario relative to current land use were used to evaluate potential vulnerability and conservation opportunities for grassland communities. Specifically, the following questions were addressed for each focal grassland community: (1) Where is the productivity of each species predicted to increase, decrease, or remain stable relative to estimated contemporary productivity for the SGP and LCD pilot area, (2) where is the productivity of the two indicator species for each community predicted to increase, decrease, or remain stable, (3) which grassland communities are most vulnerable to changes in composition and vertical structure, (4) how do current land-use patterns contribute to potential vulnerabilities of grassland communities for the climate scenarios evaluated, and (5) how can managers use the vulnerabilities identified to evaluate conservation opportunities in the SGP and LCD? Current land-use patterns, in combination with the potential effects of a changing climate, pose greater risks to mixed-grass and tallgrass prairies of the SGP compared to semi-desert grasslands and shortgrass prairie. For most climate scenarios evaluated, bioclimatic conditions conducive to the taller species were predicted to contract within some or all the current distribution of mixed-grass and tallgrass prairies within the SGP. An increase in precipitation, however, could potentially ameliorate the negative effects of increasing temperatures as evidenced by higher productivity for the hot-wet scenario compared to the other scenarios for the most vulnerable species. Compounding their greater vulnerability to increasing temperatures coupled with decreasing precipitation, the mixed-grass and tallgrass prairies have been greatly fragmented and converted, primarily by agriculture. In contrast, the climate scenarios evaluated are generally conducive to stable or increasing productivity of indicator species for semi-desert grasslands and shortgrass prairie. In addition, conversion and fragmentation of semi-desert grasslands and shortgrass prairie were relatively low. These results suggest that the synergistic effects of land use and changing climatic conditions could have the greatest effects on the composition and structure of mixed-grass and tallgrass prairies in the SGP. ScienceBase data release files that support this report are available at https://doi.org/10.5066/P9DGJHEP (Manier and others, 2019).

Colorado, Kansas, Nebraska, New Mexico, Oklahoma, ↗

USGS2009

The South Florida Ecosystem Portfolio Model - A Map-Based Multicriteria Ecological, Economic, and Community Land-Use Planning Tool

The South Florida Ecosystem Portfolio Model (EPM) prototype is a regional land-use planning Web tool that integrates ecological, economic, and social information and values of relevance to decision-makers and stakeholders. The EPM uses a multicriteria evaluation framework that builds on geographic information system-based (GIS) analysis and spatially-explicit models that characterize important ecological, economic, and societal endpoints and consequences that are sensitive to regional land-use/land-cover (LULC) change. The EPM uses both economics (monetized) and multiattribute utility (nonmonetized) approaches to valuing these endpoints and consequences. This hybrid approach represents a methodological middle ground between rigorous economic and ecological/ environmental scientific approaches. The EPM sacrifices some degree of economic- and ecological-forecasting precision to gain methodological transparency, spatial explicitness, and transferability, while maintaining credibility. After all, even small steps in the direction of including ecosystem services evaluation are an improvement over current land-use planning practice (Boyd and Wainger, 2003). There are many participants involved in land-use decision-making in South Florida, including local, regional, State, and Federal agencies, developers, environmental groups, agricultural groups, and other stakeholders (South Florida Regional Planning Council, 2003, 2004). The EPM's multicriteria evaluation framework is designed to cut across the objectives and knowledge bases of all of these participants. This approach places fundamental importance on social equity and stakeholder participation in land-use decision-making, but makes no attempt to determine normative socially 'optimal' land-use plans. The EPM is thus a map-based set of evaluation tools for planners and stakeholders to use in their deliberations of what is 'best', considering a balancing of disparate interests within a regional perspective. Although issues of regional ecological sustainability can be explored with the EPM (for example, changes in biodiversity potential and regional habitat fragmentation), it does not attempt to define or evaluate long-term ecological sustainability as such. Instead, the EPM is intended to provide transparent first-order indications of the direction of ecological, economic, and community change, not to make detailed predictions of ecological, economic, and social outcomes. In short, the EPM is an attempt to widen the perspectives of its users by integrating natural and social scientific information in a framework that recognizes the diversity of values at stake in South Florida land-use planning. For terrestrial ecosystems, land-cover change is one of the most important direct drivers of changes in ecosystem services (Hassan and others, 2005). More specifically, the fragmentation of habitat from expanding low-density development across landscapes appears to be a major driver of terrestrial species decline and the impairment of terrestrial ecosystem integrity, in some cases causing irreversible impairment from a land-use planning perspective (Brody, 2008; Peck, 1998). Many resource managers and land-use planners have come to realize that evaluating land-use conversions on a parcel-by-parcel basis leads to a fragmented and narrow view of the regional effects of natural land-cover loss to development (Marsh and Lallas, 1995). The EPM is an attempt to integrate important aspects of the coupled natural-system/human-system view from a regional planning perspective. The EPM evaluates proposed land-use changes, both conversion and intensification, in terms of relevant ecological, economic, and social criteria that combine information about probable land-use outcomes, based on ecological and environmental models, as well as value judgments, as expressed in user-modifiable preference models. Based on on-going meetings and interviews with stakeholders and potential tool users we foc

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2015

Wyoming Basin Rapid Ecoregional Assessment

The Wyoming Basin Rapid Ecoregional Assessment was conducted in partnership with the Bureau of Land Management (BLM). The overall goals of the BLM Rapid Ecoregional Assessments (REAs) are to identify important ecosystems and wildlife habitats at broad spatial scales; identify where these resources are at risk from Change Agents, including development, wildfire, invasive species, disease and climate change; quantify cumulative effects of anthropogenic stressors; and assess current levels of risk to ecological resources across a range of spatial scales and jurisdictional boundaries by assessing all lands within an ecoregion. There are several components of the REAs. Management Questions, developed by the BLM and stakeholders for the ecoregion, identify the regionally significant information needed for addressing land-management responsibilities. Conservation Elements represent regionally significant species and ecological communities that are of management concern. Change Agents that currently affect or are likely to affect the condition of species and communities in the future are identified and assessed. REAs also identify areas that have high conservation potential that are referred to as “large intact areas.” At the ecoregion level, the ecological value of large intact areas is based on the assumption that because these areas have not been greatly altered by human activities (such as development), they are more likely to contain a variety of plant and animal communities and to be resilient and resistant to changes resulting from natural disturbances such as fire, insect outbreaks, and disease. The Wyoming Basin Ecoregion encompasses approximately 133,656 square kilometers (51,604.87 square miles), including portions of Wyoming, Colorado, Utah, Idaho, and Montana. The Wyoming Basin has some of the highest quality wildlife habitats remaining in the Intermountain West. The wide variety of habitats includes intermountain basins dominated by sagebrush shrublands interspersed with deciduous and conifer woodlands and montane or subalpine forests at higher elevations. The Wyoming Basin also supports ranching and agricultural operations that are important to the region’s economy and vital to conserving habitats for wildlife. The region also contains abundant energy resources, including large natural gas reserves and areas of high wind-energy potential. Combined with increased residential and industrial development, fast-paced energy development is resulting in notable land-use changes, including habitat loss and fragmentation. In the Wyoming Basin REA, we evaluated the following seven communities as Conservation Elements: streams and rivers, wetlands, riparian forests and shrublands, sagebrush steppe, desert shrublands, foothill shrublands and woodlands, and mountain forests and alpine zones. We evaluated a total of 14 species and species assemblages as Conservation Elements: aspen forests and woodlands, five-needle pine forests and woodlands, juniper woodlands, cutthroat trout, three-species fish assemblage, northern leatherside chub, sauger, spadefoot assemblage, greater sage-grouse, golden eagle, ferruginous hawk, sagebrush-obligate birds, pygmy rabbit, and mule deer. We evaluated Management Questions (Core and Integrated) for each species and community for the Wyoming Basin REA. Core Management Questions address primary management issues, including (1) where is the Conservation Element, and what are its key ecological attributes (characteristics of species and communities that may affect their long-term persistence or viability); (2) what and where are the Change Agents; and (3) how do the Change Agents affect the key ecological attributes? Integrated Management Questions synthesize the Core Management Questions as follows: (1) where are the areas with high landscape-level ecological values; (2) where are the areas with high landscape-level risks; and (3) where are the potential areas for conservation, restoration, and development? The associated maps and key findings for each Management Question are summarized for each Conservation Element in individual chapters. Additional chapters on landscape intactness and an REA synthesis are included.

Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Utah, Wyoming↗

USGS2022

Human-cougar interactions: A literature review related to common management questions

Interactions between humans and cougars ( Puma concolor ) present unique challenges for wildlife managers; reducing occurrences that lead to conflict is a priority for state and provincial wildlife agencies throughout western North America, including Washington. With an increase in management emphasis of human-wildlife conflict resolution, a growing body of scientific literature related to cougar wildland-urban ecology and the factors that contribute to interactions between cougars and people has developed. Based on discussions with the Fish and Wildlife Commission, our 10-member Human-Cougar Interaction Science Review Team assessed both the analytical and ecological merits of current literature, focusing on data and methods, to summarize the current state of knowledge on human-cougar interactions and factors affecting these interactions. We did not use our review findings to provide management recommendations or evaluate/suggest policy alternatives, but we did highlight important information gaps, research needs, and proposed strategies for conducting scientific investigations to benefit managers and policy makers in the future. We used bibliographic lists, keyword searches in research databases, and new literature encountered as citations within papers we reviewed to identify 96 potential studies for review. We evaluated 41 studies that aligned with eight commonly asked questions regarding how various factors contribute to cougar proximity to, and interactions with people. Our review concluded that the roles of cougar removals (Question 1), cougar population size or trajectory (Question 2), the abundance or diversity of prey (Question 3), human population size, distribution, or recreation levels (Question 6), human attitudes (Question 7), and competition with other large carnivores (Question 8) in cougar interactions with people remain uncertain. We found the studies evaluating the efficacy of nonlethal deterrents (Question 4) provided some evidence that these methods reduce conflict, most notably that flashing lights can reduce interactions in specific situations. Our review of papers investigating the role of landscape characteristics (Question 5) revealed spatial ecology to be the most reliably studied and best understood facet of cougar wildland-urban ecology; study designs in these investigations were also the most rigorous. Most cougar use, and subsequent interactions with people, occur at the wildland-urban interface or in exurban and rural residential settings immediately adjacent because these habitats provide both abundant native prey (deer) and stalking cover, or they retain enough native landcover, connectivity, and prey to support cougar use, but with a human presence at a level that does not substantially deter cougars. We identified only a limited number of informative studies in our review, primarily because many studies did not collect data to specifically address relevant management questions after developing testable hypotheses. Much of the literature we reviewed was derived from ad hoc mining of pre-existing data that had been collected for other routine reasons, data were often not assessed for accuracy, and confounding factors were inadequately addressed. Consequently, many factors theorized to contribute to cougar interactions with people require more rigorous investigation. Because wildland-urban systems are complex, and interactions encompass both human and cougar behavior, we recommend the use of long-term studies that incorporate both ecological and anthropogenic factors within a control-treatment design with replicate study sites to address questions with direct management relevance.

Report↗

USGS2013

Thermokarst and thaw-related landscape dynamics -- an annotated bibliography with an emphasis on potential effects on habitat and wildlife

Permafrost has warmed throughout much of the Northern Hemisphere since the 1980s, with colder permafrost sites warming more rapidly (Romanovsky and others, 2010; Smith and others, 2010). Warming of the near-surface permafrost may lead to widespread terrain instability in ice-rich permafrost in the Arctic and the Subarctic, and may result in thermokarst development and other thaw-related landscape features (Jorgenson and others, 2006; Gooseff and others, 2009). Thermokarst and other thaw-related landscape features result from varying modes and scales of permafrost thaw, subsidence, and removal of material. An increase in active-layer depth, water accumulation on the soil surface, permafrost degradation and associated retreat of the permafrost table, and changes to lake shores and coastal bluffs act and interact to create thermokarst and other thaw-related landscape features (Shur and Osterkamp, 2007). There is increasing interest in the spatial and temporal dynamics of thermokarst and other thaw-related features from diverse disciplines including landscape ecology, hydrology, engineering, and biogeochemistry. Therefore, there is a need to synthesize and disseminate knowledge on the current state of near-surface permafrost terrain. The term "thermokarst" originated in the Russian literature, and its scientific use has varied substantially over time (Shur and Osterkamp, 2007). The modern definition of thermokarst refers to the process by which characteristic landforms result from the thawing of ice-rich permafrost or the melting of massive ice (van Everdingen, 1998), or, more specifically, the thawing of ice-rich permafrost and (or) melting of massive ice that result in consolidation and deformation of the soil surface and formation of specific forms of relief (Shur, 1988). Jorgenson (2013) identifies 23 distinct thermokarst and other thaw-related features in the Arctic, Subarctic, and Antarctic based primarily on differences in terrain condition, ground-ice volume, and heat and mass transfer processes. Typical Arctic thermokarst landforms include thermokarst lakes, collapsed pingos, sinkholes, and pits. Thermokarst is differentiated from thermal erosion, which refers to the erosion of the land surface by thermal and mechanical processes (Mackay, 1970; van Everdingen, 1998). Typical thermal erosional features include thermo-erosional gullies. Thermal abrasion is further differentiated from thermokarst and thermal erosion by association with the reworking of ocean, river, and lake bluffs (Are, 1988). Typical thermo-abrasion features include erosional niches at the base of bluffs. Thermal denudation is another distinct term that refers to the effect of incoming solar energy on the thaw of frozen slopes and permafrost bodies that subsequently become transported downhill by gravity (Shur and Osterkamp, 2007). Active layer detachment slides and thaw slumps are typical thermal denudation features. Shur and Osterkamp (2007) noted that these various transport processes may occur together with thermokarst or in instances that would not be considered thermokarst. This compilation of references regarding thermokarst and other thaw-related features is focused on the Arctic and the Subarctic. References were drawn from North America as well as Siberia. English-language literature mostly was targeted, with 167 references annotated in version 1.0; however, an additional 28 Russian-language references were taken from Shur and Osterkamp (2007) and are provided at the end of this document. This compilation may be missing key references and inevitably will become outdated soon after publication. We hope that this document, version 1.0, will serve as the foundation for a comprehensive compilation of thermokarst and permafrost-terrain stability references, and that it will be updated continually over the coming years.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2012

Simulation of climate change in San Francisco Bay Basins, California: Case studies in the Russian River Valley and Santa Cruz Mountains

As a result of ongoing changes in climate, hydrologic and ecologic effects are being seen across the western United States. A regional study of how climate change affects water resources and habitats in the San Francisco Bay area relied on historical climate data and future projections of climate, which were downscaled to fine spatial scales for application to a regional water-balance model. Changes in climate, potential evapotranspiration, recharge, runoff, and climatic water deficit were modeled for the Bay Area. In addition, detailed studies in the Russian River Valley and Santa Cruz Mountains, which are on the northern and southern extremes of the Bay Area, respectively, were carried out in collaboration with local water agencies. Resource managers depend on science-based projections to inform planning exercises that result in competent adaptation to ongoing and future changes in water supply and environmental conditions. Results indicated large spatial variability in climate change and the hydrologic response across the region; although there is warming under all projections, potential change in precipitation by the end of the 21st century differed according to model. Hydrologic models predicted reduced early and late wet season runoff for the end of the century for both wetter and drier future climate projections, which could result in an extended dry season. In fact, summers are projected to be longer and drier in the future than in the past regardless of precipitation trends. While water supply could be subject to increased variability (that is, reduced reliability) due to greater variability in precipitation, water demand is likely to steadily increase because of increased evapotranspiration rates and climatic water deficit during the extended summers. Extended dry season conditions and the potential for drought, combined with unprecedented increases in precipitation, could serve as additional stressors on water quality and habitat. By focusing on the relationship between soil moisture storage and evapotranspiration pressures, climatic water deficit integrates the effects of increasing temperature and varying precipitation on basin conditions. At the fine-scale used for these analyses, this variable is an effective indicator of the areas in the landscape that are the most resilient or vulnerable to projected changes. These analyses have shown that regardless of the direction of precipitation change, climatic water deficit is projected to increase, which implies greater water demand to maintain current agricultural resources or land cover. Fine-scale modeling provides a spatially distributed view of locations in the landscape that could prove to be resilient to climatic changes in contrast to locations where vegetation is currently living on the edge of its present-day bioclimatic distribution and, therefore, is more likely to perish or shift to other dominant species under future warming. This type of modeling and the associated analyses provide a useful means for greater understanding of water and land resources, which can lead to better resource management and planning.

California↗

USGS2025

Mammalian responses to select Type 3 Watershed Experiment prescriptions in the Olympic Experimental State Forest: A camera-based monitoring approach

The Type 3 Watershed Experiment is a landscape-scale management experiment designed to assess the ecological, economic, and social benefits of timber harvest and post-harvest management prescriptions in upland and riparian systems of the Washington Coast Range ecoregion. The experiment is being conducted on state trust lands in the Olympic Experimental State Forest (OESF), which are managed by the Washington Department of Natural Resources (WADNR). A wide variety of abiotic and biotic responses are being studied for the experiment, but no current studies include mammalian responses. The goal of this study is to use camera traps to assess patterns of medium and large mammal use of treatment blocks associated with the Type 3 Watershed Experiment, including the Complex Early Seral (CES) prescription and Variable Retention Harvest (VRH) prescription, in comparison to unharvested second growth forests. We are using a block design to assess responses of the medium and large mammal community to the CES and VRH prescriptions. Target taxa include Columbia black-tailed deer, Roosevelt elk, black bear, cougar, coyote, bobcat, fisher, and other medium sized mammals of interest. Mammalian use at the management prescription sites will be compared to use at the unharvested control sites (second growth forest stands). We will conduct an initial study in 2024─2025 for proof of concept after a pilot period of camera deployment. We anticipate that the cameras will be deployed continuously year-round for at least three years and possibly longer to assess longer-term patterns of use of these prescriptions. The project includes 48 cameras deployed evenly across CES, VRH, and control units. All our camera deployments are collocated at sites where avian monitoring is also occurring, and several also overlap with areas where the amphibian community is being surveyed, providing spatial linkages among different wildlife datasets. We will assess mammal community responses to forest management prescriptions using a variety of approaches. For the different prescriptions, we will examine the occurrence of a suite of species, measure species richness (alpha and beta diversity), estimate relative use, and quantify species persistence (i.e., the amount of time a species spends in a given prescription). We will estimate the influence of select habitat conditions on individual species use and on total species richness using mixed-effects models. The results of this study will provide estimates of initial responses of the mammalian community to the focal management prescriptions and serve as baseline data for long-term monitoring. This research will provide natural resource managers with a better understanding of how the mammalian community responds to and uses different types of habitats after timber harvest operations and will assess how those patterns change over time as vegetation develops under different silviculture prescriptions.

Washington↗

USGS1996

South Florida wetlands ecosystem; biogeochemical processes in peat

The South Florida wetlands ecosystem is an environment of great size and ecological diversity (figs. 1 and 2). The landscape diversity and subtropical setting of this ecosystem provide a habitat for an abundance of plants and wildlife, some of which are unique to South Florida. South Florida wetlands are currently in crisis, however, due to the combined effects of agriculture, urbanization, and nearly 100 years of water management. Serious problems facing this ecosystem include (1) phosphorus contamination producing nutrient enrichment, which is causing changes in the native vegetation, (2) methylmercury contamination of fish and other wildlife, which poses a potential threat to human health, (3) changes in the natural flow of water in the region, resulting in more frequent drying of wetlands, loss of organic soils, and a reduction in freshwater flow to Florida Bay, (4) hypersalinity, massive algal blooms, and seagrass loss in parts of Florida Bay, and (5) a decrease in wildlife populations, especially those of wading birds. This U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) project focuses on the role of organic-rich sediments (peat) of South Florida wetlands in regulating the concentrations and impact of important chemical species in the environment. The cycling of carbon, nitrogen, phosphorus, and sulfur in peat is an important factor in the regulation of water quality in the South Florida wetlands ecosystem. These elements are central to many of the contamination issues facing South Florida wetlands, such as nutrient enrichment, mercury toxicity, and loss of peat. Many important chemical and biological reactions occur in peat and control the fate of chemical species in wetlands. Wetland scientists often refer to these reactions as biogeochemical processes, because they are chemical reactions usually mediated by microorganisms in a geological environment. An understanding of the biogeochemical processes in peat of South Florida wetlands will provide a basis for evaluating the effects on water quality of (1) constructing buffer wetlands to alleviate nutrient contamination and (2) replumbing the ecosystem to restore natural water flow. The results may also suggest new approaches for solving problems of contamination and water quality in these wetlands. A second focus of this project will be on the geochemical history of the South Florida ecosystem. Peat is a repository of the history of past environmental conditions in the wetland. Before effective action can be taken to correct many of the problems facing these wetlands, we must first study the biogeochemistry of the peat at depth in order to understand whether current problems are the result of recent human activity or are part of a long-term natural cycle. Coordination with other (USGS) projects for South Florida is ongoing. These projects are studying the biological history of the ecosystem by using pollen and shells buried in the peat, together with procedures for dating the peat at various depths, to develop an overall ecosystem history model, with emphasis on the last 100 years.

Fact Sheet↗

USGS2020

Forage and habitat for pollinators in the northern Great Plains—Implications for U.S. Department of Agriculture conservation programs

Managed and wild pollinators are critical components of agricultural and natural systems. Despite the well-known value of insect pollinators to U.S. agriculture, Apis mellifera (Linnaeus, 1758; honey bees) and wild bees currently face numerous stressors that have resulted in declining health. These declines have engendered support for pollinator conservation efforts across all levels of government, private businesses, and nongovernmental organizations. In 2014, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) and the U.S. Geological Survey initiated an interagency agreement to evaluate honey bee forage across multiple States in the northern Great Plains and upper Midwest. The long-term goal of this study was to provide an empirical evaluation of floral resources used by honey bees, and the relative contribution of multiple land covers and USDA conservation programs to bee health and productivity. Our multi-State analysis of land-use change from 2006 to 2016 revealed loss of grassland and increases in corn and soybean area in North and South Dakota, representing a significant loss of bee-friendly land covers in areas that support the highest density of summer bee yards in the entire United States. Our landscape models demonstrate the importance of the Conservation Reserve Program in providing safe locations for beekeepers to keep honey bees during the summer and highlights how land use in the northern Great Plains has a lasting effect on the health of honey bee colonies during almond pollination the subsequent spring. Our multiseason, multi-State genetic analysis of honey bee-collected pollen revealed Melilotus spp., Asteraceae, Trifolium spp., Fabaceae, Sonchus arvensis , Symphyotrichum cordifolium , and Solidago spp. were the top taxa detected; Melilotus spp. represented 42 percent of all detected taxa. Symphyotrichum cordifolium , Solidago spp., and Grindelia spp. were the top native forbs detected in honey bee-collected pollen. We also conducted plant and bee surveys on private lands enrolled in the Conservation Reserve Program and Environmental Quality Incentives Program. In general, we found significant variability in floral resources and pollinator utilization across USDA programs and practices. On average, greater than 75 percent of honey bee flower observations on private lands enrolled in a USDA conservation program were on non-native forbs, whereas 33 percent of wild bee flower observations were on non-native forbs. Melilotus officinalis and Medicago sativa were the most visited by honey bees, wherease Medicago sativa and Helianthus maximiliani were the most visited by wild bees. Our analysis of nectar dearth periods in June and September for honey bees revealed that although Melilotus officinalis and Medicago sativa were highly visited, less common native forb species such as Ratibida columnifera , Agastache foeniculum , and Gaillardia aristata were preferred species. However, these preferred species were relatively rare on the landscape and are, therefore, unlikely to make up a sizable part of the honey bee diet. In addition to our empirical results, we also showcase how the U.S. Geological Survey Pollinator Library, a decision-support tool for natural resource managers, can be used to design cost-effective seeding mixes for pollinators. Collectively, the results of this research will assist USDA with maximizing the ecological impact and cost-effectiveness of their conservation programs on pollinators in the northern Great Plains.

Minnesota, North Dakota, South Dakota↗

USGS2005

Grass buffers for playas in agricultural landscapes: A literature synthesis

We summarize current knowledge about grass buffers for protecting small, isolated wetlands in agricultural contexts, including information relevant to protecting playas from runoff containing sediments, nutrients, pesticides, and other contaminants, and information on how buffers may affect densities and productivity of grassland birds. Land-uses surrounding the approximately 60,000 playas within the Playa Lakes Region (PLR), including intensive agriculture, feedlots, and oil extraction, can contribute to severe degradation of playas. Farming and grazing can lead to significant sedimentation in nearby playas, eliminating their ability to hold water, support the region’s biodiversity, or adequately recharge aquifers. Contaminants further degrade habitats and threaten the water quality of underlying aquifers, including the Ogallala Aquifer. Grass buffers hold promise as a management tool to reduce the amount of sediments and contaminants from agricultural runoff that enters playas. Effective buffer width is determined by acceptable sediment-reduction levels, potential water flow and velocity, landscape and soil variables, buffer species, and vegetation structure. Various models have been developed to predict buffer effectiveness; however, most of these models, including those provided by the Natural Resource Conservation Service (NRCS), remain unvalidated. The majority of buffer-effectiveness literature is based on simulated conditions in experimental trays or plots; no published studies of buffer design or effectiveness specifically address playas. Nonetheless, some general patterns have emerged regarding buffer design/effectiveness. Buffers 10–60 m wide are generally considered adequate for trapping most sediments, although in some cases buffers need to be >200 m. The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Partners for Wildlife Program in the Southern High Plains recommend a buffer width of ~33 m planted with a diverse mix of native shortgrasses and mixed grasses as a starting point. Most dissolved contaminants, however, are removed from runoff only when they infiltrate the soil, where microbes or other processes can break down or sequester contaminants. Promoting runoff infiltration requires wider buffers with denser stem densities than those required for filtering sediments, which may result in hydrological changes in playas. Ultimately, the balance between runoff and infiltration determines whether or not water eventually reaches a given basin. Long-term buffer effectiveness requires regular maintenance, including excavation to remove overburdens of sediments, repairing vegetation damage, and removing over-mature vegetation or invasions of noxious weeds. Buffers may not be enough to protect playas; best management practices (BMPs; e.g., conservation tillage, contour tilling, and mulching herbicides into soil after application) that diminish soil erosion and contaminant runoff also may be necessary. Nutrient loads in runoff can be minimized by balancing nutrient input with nutrient requirements for livestock and crops. Pesticide application practices also require careful evaluation. Mowing or grazing rather than use of herbicides offer alternatives for suppressing invasive or undesirable plant species in buffers. Future research should entail multiple-scale approaches at regional, wetland-complex, and individual watershed scales. Information needs include direct measures of buffer effectiveness in ‘real-world’ systems, refinement and field tests of buffer-effectiveness models, how buffers may affect floral and faunal communities of playas, and basic ecological information on playa function and playa wildlife ecology. Understanding how wildlife communities respond to patch size and habitat fragmentation is crucial for addressing questions regarding habitat quality of grass buffers in playa systems.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2013

Population ecology of variegate darter (Etheostoma variatum) in Virginia

Variegate darters ( Etheostoma variatum ) were listed as endangered in Virginia in 1992. Reasons for listing included habitat degradation and concerns about current and future impacts of coal mining throughout their Virginia range. Prior to this research, little was known about variegate darter distribution, habitat use, or populations in Virginia. Two primary goals of this research were to gain knowledge about the current population ecology and the relationship between landscape-level factors (e.g., land cover changes, watershed size, isolation from other populations) on current and past variegate darter population sizes. We investigated distribution, habitat suitability, population genetics, and population size and structure of variegate darters in the upper Big Sandy River drainage, Buchanan, Dickenson, and Wise Co., Virginia. Our results indicate variegate darters are primarily found in the Levisa Fork, with highest densities and abundances between its confluence with Dismal Creek and the Virginia-Kentucky border. Sporadic occurrences in smaller tributaries to the Levisa and Tug forks indicate they exist more widely in low densities, especially near the confluence with the Tug and Levisa mainstems. Detection of variegate darters in smaller tributaries was inconsistent, with reach-level occupancy estimates varying among years. We detected young-of-year variegate darters every year we sampled, but age 1 + darters were indistinguishable from older darters based on standard length. Variegate darter population size and stability in Virginia were estimated via multiple methods, including site occupancy surveys, mark-recapture studies, and population genetic analysis. Using mark-recapture methods at five sites, we estimated overall population size in 2011 to be approximately 12,800 individuals in the 35-km reach between the Levisa Fork - Dismal Creek confluence and the Virginia-Kentucky border. Age structure seemed stable, with breeding adults and young-of-year collected annually during 2008-2011. Population genetic analysis indicated variegate darters in the Levisa Fork and its tributaries are part of a single genetic population. Historical and current genetic stability were seen in our analysis of the variegate darter population, with no genetic differentiation among riffles across the upper Levisa Fork watershed, indicating dispersal among these sites is enough to overcome random genetic drift. This population is genetically isolated from downstream populations by the dam at Fishtrap Lake, Pike Co., Kentucky, and is beginning to show genetic isolation from other nearby populations. As expected, the Virginia population is most closely related to those in the Russell Fork and Levisa Fork downstream of the dam. Regular monitoring of variegate darters in the Levisa Fork mainstem from the Dismal Creek confluence to the Virginia-Kentucky border would facilitate better understanding of normal fluctuations of population size and distribution, as well as assessments of population status. This reach encompasses the core of the variegate darter population in Virginia, and its persistence will determine long-term viability of this species. Given that little is known about long-term population trends, we suggest that annual site-occupancy and population size estimates be made at ten randomly selected riffles for at least ten years to understand normal levels of variability. Thereafter, these population parameters could be monitored bi-annually as a way to detect shrinking distribution or abundance, especially after any fish kill or other pollution event in the Levisa Fork. We further suggest that the sites upstream and downstream of the saline diffusor pipe be monitored to detect changes in the extent of the impact zone. Overall, the variegate darter population in Virginia appears stable, although primarily confined to the lower 35 km of the Levisa Fork. Nevertheless, variegate darters in Virginia remain susceptible to extirpation due to catastrophic events, both physical (chemical spill) and biological (disease outbreak or invasive species introduction).

Virginia, West Virginia↗

USGS2006

The Amphibian Research and Monitoring Initiative (ARMI): 5-year report

The Amphibian Research and Monitoring Initiative (ARMI) is an innovative, multidisciplinary program that began in 2000 in response to a congressional directive for the Department of the Interior to address the issue of amphibian declines in the United States. ARMI’s formulation was cross-disciplinary, integrating U.S. Geological Survey scientists from Biology, Water, and Geography to develop a course of action (Corn and others, 2005a). The result has been an effective program with diverse, yet complementary, expertise. ARMI’s approach to research and monitoring is multiscale. Detailed investigations focus on a few species at selected local sites throughout the country; monitoring addresses a larger number of species over broader areas (typically, National Parks and National Wildlife Refuges); and inventories to document species occurrence are conducted more extensively across the landscape. Where monitoring is conducted, the emphasis is on an ability to draw statistically defensible conclusions about the status of amphibians. To achieve this objective, ARMI has instituted a monitoring response variable that has nationwide applicability. At research sites, ARMI focuses on studying species/environment interactions, determining causes of observed declines, and developing new techniques to sample populations and analyze data. Results from activities at all scales are provided to scientists, land managers, and policymakers, as appropriate. The ARMI program and the scientists involved contribute significantly to understanding amphibian declines at local, regional, national, and international levels. Within National Parks and National Wildlife Refuges, findings help land managers make decisions applicable to amphibian conservation. For example, the National Park Service (NPS) selected amphibians as a vital sign for several of their monitoring networks, and ARMI scientists provide information and assistance in developing monitoring methods for this NPS effort. At the national level, ARMI has had major exposure at a variety of meetings, including a dedicated symposium at the 2004 joint meetings of the Herpetologists’ League, the American Society of Ichthyologists and Herpetologists, and the Society for the Study of Amphibians and Reptiles. Several principal investigators have brought international exposure to ARMI through venues such as the World Congress of Herpetology in South Africa in 2005 (invited presentation by Dr. Gary Fellers), the Global Amphibian Summit, sponsored by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) and Wildlife Conservation International, in Washington, D.C., 2005 (invited participation by Dr. P.S. Corn), and a special issue of the international herpetological journal Alytes focused on ARMI in 2004 (edited by Dr. C.K. Dodd, Jr.). ARMI research and monitoring efforts have addressed at least 7 of the 21 Threatened and Endangered Species listed by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (California red-legged frog [Rana draytonii], Chiricahua leopard frog [R. chiricahuensis], arroyo toad [Bufo californicus], dusky gopher frog [Rana sevosa], mountain yellow-legged frog [R. muscosa], flatwoods salamander [Ambystoma cingulatum], and the golden coqui [Eleutherodactylus jasperi]), and 9 additional species of concern recognized by the IUCN. ARMI investigations have addressed time-sensitive research, such as emerging infectious diseases and effects on amphibians related to natural disasters like wildfire, hurricanes, and debris flows, and the effects of more constant, environmental change, like urban expansion, road development, and the use of pesticides. Over the last 5 years, ARMI has partnered with an extensive list of government, academic, and private entities. These partnerships have been fruitful and have assisted ARMI in developing new field protocols and analytic tools, in using and refining emerging technologies to improve accuracy and efficiency of data handling, in conducting amphibian disease, malformation, and environmental effects research, and in implementing a network of monitoring and research sites. Accomplishments from these endeavors include more than 40 publications on amphibian status and trends, nearly 100 publications on amphibian ecology and causes of declines, and over 30 methodological publications. Several databases have emerged as a result of ARMI and its partnerships; one, a digital atlas of ranges for all U.S. amphibian species, was used by the IUCN to display amphibian distribution maps in the Global Amphibian Assessment Project. Given the scope of ARMI and the panoply of projects, findings have had implications for policy. Investigations that demonstrate amphibian declines or illuminate causes of declines provide valuable information about habitat management, environmental effects, mechanisms for the spread of disease, and human/amphibian interfaces. This information has been made available to land managers, scientists, educators, Congress and other policymakers, and the public. The support afforded ARMI by Congress has been influential in the program’s development and success. The value of ARMI’s efforts will continue to increase as we are able to extend our studies spatially and temporally to answer critical questions with more confidence. We are using ARMI’s resources efficiently and continuing to develop innovative mechanisms for leveraging resources for maximum effectiveness during challenging financial times. This report is a 5-year retrospective of the structure, methodology, progress, and contributions to the broader scientific community that have resulted from this national USGS program. We evaluate ARMI’s success to date, with regard to the challenges faced by the program and the strengths that have emerged. We chart objectives for the next 5 years that build on current accomplishments, highlight areas meriting further research, and direct efforts to overcome existing weaknesses.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2014

U.S. Geological Survey Karst Interest Group Proceedings, Carlsbad, New Mexico, April 29-May 2, 2014

Karst aquifer systems are present throughout parts of the United States and some of its territories, and have developed in carbonate rocks (primarily limestone and dolomite) that span an interval of time encompassing more than 550 million years. The depositional environments, diagenetic processes, post-depositional tectonic events, and geochemical weathering processes that form karst aquifers are varied and complex, and involve biological, chemical, and physical changes. These factors, combined with the diverse climatic regimes under which karst development in these rocks has taken place, result in the unique dual- or triple-porosity nature of karst aquifers. These complex hydrogeologic systems typically represent challenging and unique conditions to scientists attempting to study groundwater flow and contaminant transport in these terrains. The dissolution of carbonate rocks and the subsequent development of distinct and beautiful landscapes, caverns, and springs has resulted in the most exceptional karst areas of the United States being designated as national or state parks; commercial caverns and known privately owned caves number in the tens of thousands. Both public and private properties provide access for scientists to study the flow of groundwater in situ. Likewise, the range and complexity of landforms and groundwater flow systems associated with karst terrains are enormous, perhaps more than for any other aquifer type. Karst aquifers and landscapes that form in tropical areas, such as the cockpit karst along the north coast of Puerto Rico, differ greatly from karst landforms in more arid climates, such as the Edwards Plateau in west-central Texas or the Guadalupe Mountains near Carlsbad, New Mexico, where hypogenic processes have played a major role in speleogenesis. Many of these public and private lands also contain unique flora and fauna associated with these karst hydrogeologic systems. As a result, numerous federal, state, and local agencies have a strong interest in the study of karst terrains. Many of the major springs and aquifers in the United States have developed in carbonate rocks, such as the Floridan aquifer system in Florida and parts of Alabama, Georgia, and South Carolina; the Ozark Plateaus aquifer system in parts of Arkansas, Kansas, Missouri, and Oklahoma; and the Edwards-Trinity aquifer system in west-central Texas. These aquifers, and the springs that discharge from them, serve as major water-supply sources and as unique ecological habitats. Competition for the water resources of karst aquifers is common, and urban development and the lack of attenuation of contaminants in karst areas can impact the ecosystem and water quality of these aquifers. The concept for developing a platform for interaction among scientists within the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) working on karst-related studies evolved from the November 1999 National Ground-Water Meeting of the USGS. As a result, the Karst Interest Group (KIG) was formed in 2000. The KIG is a loose-knit, grass-roots organization of USGS and non-USGS scientists and researchers devoted to fostering better communication among scientists working on, or interested in, karst science. The primary mission of the KIG is to encourage and support interdisciplinary collaboration and technology transfer among scientists working in karst areas. Additionally, the KIG encourages collaborative studies between the different mission areas of the USGS as well as other federal and state agencies, and with researchers from academia and institutes. The KIG also encourages younger scientists by participation of students in the poster and oral sessions. To accomplish its mission, the KIG has organized a series of workshops that are held near nationally important karst areas. To date (2014) six KIG workshops, including the workshop documented in this report, have been held. The workshops typically include oral and poster sessions on selected karst-related topics and research, as well as field trips to local karst features. Proceedings of the workshops are published by the USGS and are available online at http://water.usgs.gov/ogw/karst/kig . The first KIG workshop was held in St. Petersburg, Florida, February 13–16, 2001, in the vicinity of the large springs and other karst features of the Floridan aquifer system. The second KIG workshop was held August 20–22, 2002, in Shepherdstown, West Virginia, in proximity to the carbonate aquifers of the northern Shenandoah Valley and highlighted an invited presentation on karst literature by the late Barry F. Beck of P.E. LaMoreaux and Associates. The third KIG workshop was held September 12–15, 2005, in Rapid City, South Dakota, nearby to karst features in evaporites and limestones of the Madison Group in the Black Hills of South Dakota, including Wind Cave National Park and Jewel Cave National Monument. The workshop also included a featured presentation by Thomas Casadevall, Central Region Director, USGS, on the status of earth science at the USGS and evening trips to Jewel Cave led by Mike Wiles, National Park Service (NPS) and Wind Cave led by Rod Horrocks, NPS. The fourth KIG workshop was held May 27–29, 2008, and hosted by the Hoffman Environmental Research Institute and Center for Cave and Karst Studies at Western Kentucky University in Bowling Green, Kentucky, near Mammoth Cave National Park and karst features of the Chester Upland and Pennyroyal Plateau. The workshop featured a late-night field trip into Mammoth Cave with Rickard Toomey and Rick Olsen, NPS. The fifth workshop was held April 26–29, 2011, and was a joint meeting of the USGS KIG and University of Arkansas HydroDays, hosted by the Department of Geosciences at the University of Arkansas in Fayetteville. The workshop featured an outstanding field trip to the unique karst terrain along the Buffalo National River of the southern Ozarks and a keynote presentation on paleokarst in the United States by Art and Peggy Palmer. This sixth and current 2014 KIG workshop is hosted by the National Cave and Karst Research Institute (NCKRI) in Carlsbad, New Mexico, with Director of NCKRI, George Veni, serving as co-chair of the workshop with Eve Kuniansky, USGS. The session planning committee for this sixth workshop includes Van Brahana, USGS retired and University of Arkansas Professor Emeritus; Tom Byl, USGS and Tennessee State University; Zelda Bailey, former Director of NCKRI and retired Director, National Institute of Standards and Technology, Boulder Laboratory, Colorado; Patrick Tucci, USGS retired; and Mike Bradley, Allan Clark, Geoff Delin, Daniel Doctor, James Kaufmann, Eve Kuniansky, Randy Orndorff, Larry Spangler, and Dave Weary of the USGS. The karst hydrology field trip on Thursday will be led by Lewis Land (NCKRI karst hydrologist) and the optional Friday field trip on the geology of Carlsbad Caverns National Park will be led by George Veni. The keynote speaker is Dr. Penelope Boston, Director of Cave and Karst Studies at New Mexico Tech, Socorro, and Academic Director at NCKRI, who will address the future of karst research. Additionally, there is a featured presentation “Irish karst and its management,” by Caoimhe Hickey, The Geological Survey of Ireland, preceding a panel discussion on “Collaboration During Times of Limited Resources.” The extended abstracts of USGS authors were peer reviewed and approved for publication by the U.S. Geological Survey. Articles submitted by university researchers and other federal and state agencies did not go through the formal USGS peer review and approval process, and therefore may not adhere to our editorial standards or stratigraphic nomenclature and is not research conducted or data collected by the USGS. However, all articles had at a minimum of two peer reviews, and all articles were edited for consistency of appearance in the published Proceedings. The use of trade, firm or product names in any article is for descriptive purposes only and does not imply endorsement by the U.S. Government. The USGS, Office of Groundwater, provides technical support for the Karst Interest Group website and public availability of the Proceedings from these workshops, and the USGS Groundwater Resources Program funds the publication costs. Finally, the cover illustration is the work of Ann Tihansky, USGS, used since the first KIG workshop in 2000.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2007

Hydrogeologic Framework and Ground-Water Budget of the Spokane Valley-Rathdrum Prairie Aquifer, Spokane County, Washington, and Bonner and Kootenai Counties, Idaho

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Idaho Department of Water Resources and Washington State Department of Ecology, investigated the hydrogeologic framework and ground-water budget of the Spokane Valley-Rathdrum Prairie (SVRP) aquifer located in northern Idaho and northeastern Washington. Descriptions of the hydrogeologic framework, water-budget components, and further data needs are provided. The SVRP aquifer, which covers about 370 square miles including the Rathdrum Prairie, Idaho, and the Spokane Valley and Hillyard Trough, Washington, is the sole source of drinking water for more than 500,000 residents. Continued growth, water-management issues, and potential effects on water availability and water quality in the aquifer and in the Spokane and Little Spokane Rivers have illustrated the need to better understand and manage the region's water resources. The SVRP aquifer consists mostly of gravels, cobbles, and boulders - deposited during a series of outburst floods resulting from repeated collapse of the ice dam that impounded ancient Glacial Lake Missoula. In most places, the SVRP aquifer is bounded by bedrock of pre-Tertiary granite or metasedimentary rocks, or Miocene basalt and associated sedimentary deposits. Discontinuous fine-grained layers are scattered throughout the SVRP aquifer at considerably different altitudes and with considerably different thicknesses. In the Hillyard Trough and the Little Spokane River Arm of the aquifer, a massive fine-grained layer with a top altitude ranging from about 1,500 to 1,700 feet and thickness ranging from about 100 to 200 feet separates the aquifer into upper and lower units. Most of the Spokane Valley part of the aquifer is devoid of fine-grained layers except near the margins of the valley and near the mouths of lakes. In the Rathdrum Prairie, multiple fine-grained layers are scattered throughout the aquifer with top altitudes ranging from about 1,700 to 2,400 feet with thicknesses ranging from 1 to more than 135 feet. The altitude of the base of the aquifer ranges from less than 1,800 feet near Lake Pend Oreille to less than 1,200 feet near the aquifer's outlet near Long Lake. The thickness of the aquifer is more than 800 feet in the northwestern part of the northern Rathdrum Prairie, through the West Channel area, and through the west-central part of the Rathdrum Prairie. In Washington, the areas of greatest thickness, more than 600 feet, are mapped in the central parts of the Spokane Valley, Spokane, and the Hillyard Trough. Recharge or inflow to the SVRP aquifer occurs from six main sources: the Spokane River, lakes, infiltration from precipitation over the aquifer, tributaries, infiltration from landscape irrigation and septic systems, and subsurface inflow. Discharge or outflow from the SVRP aquifer occurs from five main sources: the Spokane River, the Little Spokane River, pumpage, subsurface discharge to Long Lake, and infiltration of ground water to sewers. Total estimated mean annual inflow to and outflow from the SVRP aquifer is about 1,470 cubic feet per second. Several data needs were identified during this investigation that would improve the definition of the hydrogeologic framework and ground-water budget components for the SVRP aquifer study area. Deep drilling along the axis of the aquifer could determine the depth to the bottom of the aquifer where data are currently unavailable as well as identify the presence of fine-grained layers and their thickness. A more detailed analysis of the geologic and hydrologic setting near the southern ends of Spirit and Hoodoo Valleys could help determine the location of the ground-water divide between the two valleys and the Rathdrum Prairie. Better estimates of seepage into the aquifer from Coeur d'Alene Lake and Lake Pend Oreille and underflow from the aquifer to Long Lake would strengthen the recharge and discharge estimates of the aquifer. A hydrochemical study incorporating analyses of envi

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2020

Assessment of methods for soil monitoring in the Adirondack region of New York

Repeated sampling to detect changes in forest soils was rarely used before 1990, but the value of soil monitoring in understanding environmental change is becoming well established. The growing number of resampling studies has shown that sampling designs and procedures must be adapted to the objectives of the monitoring program and the soils being monitored. In the Adirondack region, current priorities include the response of soils to large increases, and more recently, large decreases in acidic deposition, and changes driven by trending climate such as altered pools of soil organic carbon, as well as other unforeseen factors that will occur in the future. To improve methods and assess the feasibility of long-term soil monitoring in the Adirondack region, the United States Geological Survey (USGS) conducted a pilot project to evaluate a new sampling method for characterizing soils on a watershed basis. Results obtained with this new approach, referred to as the ADK sampling method, was compared to methods used in previous sampling conducted in 2004 as part of the Western Adirondack Stream Survey (WASS), and also to previous high-replication pit sampling in the North and South Tributary watersheds of Buck Creek (North Buck and South Buck). The number of sampling locations and spatial distribution of sampling points within watersheds differed among the methods, although pit excavation was used to obtain samples in all cases. In addition, this investigation evaluated the use of small diameter corers as a means to measure forest floor mass with greater accuracy and precision than commonly used methods such as pit excavation. Sufficient statistical power to detect ecologically relevant changes in upper profile horizons (Oe, Oa and upper 10 cm of the B) were achieved with the ADK sampling method that utilized 18 pit excavations per watershed. The sampling locations were organized within each watershed into three study areas (six sampling locations per study area) that represented the primary types of landscape within the watershed. Sampling at 18 locations per watershed was found to be nearly as effective at detecting changes as sampling at 28 locations per watershed. Numerous significant changes (P < 0.10) were detected with both 18 and 28 sampling locations at sampling intervals of 12 to 16 years. The relationship between soil data obtained with the ADK method and stream chemistry at the base of the watershed suggested that this approach adequately characterized soil variability within the watershed for the purpose of studying soil-stream linkages. Significant changes in upper B horizon calcium (P < 0.10) and Oa horizon aluminum (P < 0.01) were detected when the data from the four WASS watersheds were combined with the two Buck Creek watersheds, which suggested that there would be value in resampling other WASS watersheds previously sampled in 2004 to support a regional assessment. Study results support small diameter cores as a useful method to monitor changes in the organic matter mass of the forest floor. This method showed high reproducibility in repeated sampling tests and lower spatial variability in sample data than traditional approaches when compared on a watershed basis. Soil coring is also faster and requires less equipment than pit excavation methods, which makes it more conducive to sampling over large areas. However, organic matter mass of the forest floor determined by coring was consistently less than the values obtained by the ADK sampling method that used pit sampling and vertical horizon measurements, and also literature values of a previous Adirondack study that utilized pit sampling in which the entire horizon was collected over a measured area. However, a high correlation (R2 = 0.87) occurred between organic matter content (expressed as Mg ha-1) determined by coring and the ADK sampling method. Differing methods with regard to where sample could be collected, and how organic matter was collected for chemical analysis were the likely reasons for differences in quantification of forest floor organic mass. Collection of forest floor cores in conjunction with the ADK method is recommended to provide improved sensitivity in detecting changes in the forest floor in proximity of where full analyses of the soil profile are being done. This duel sampling approach represents an optimized method for measuring and understanding how Adirondack soils will change in the future.

New York↗

USGS2010

Southeast Regional Assessment Project for the National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center, U.S. Geological Survey

The Southeastern United States spans a broad range of physiographic settings and maintains exceptionally high levels of faunal diversity. Unfortunately, many of these ecosystems are increasingly under threat due to rapid human development, and management agencies are increasingly aware of the potential effects that climate change will have on these ecosystems. Natural resource managers and conservation planners can be effective at preserving ecosystems in the face of these stressors only if they can adapt current conservation efforts to increase the overall resilience of the system. Climate change, in particular, challenges many of the basic assumptions used by conservation planners and managers. Previous conservation planning efforts identified and prioritized areas for conservation based on the current environmental conditions, such as habitat quality, and assumed that conditions in conservation lands would be largely controlled by management actions (including no action). Climate change, however, will likely alter important system drivers (temperature, precipitation, and sea-level rise) and make it difficult, if not impossible, to maintain recent historic conditions in conservation lands into the future. Climate change will also influence the future conservation potential of non-conservation lands, further complicating conservation planning. Therefore, there is a need to develop and adapt effective conservation strategies to cope with the effects of climate and landscape change on future environmental conditions. Congress recognized this important issue and authorized the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center (NCCWSC; http://nccw.usgs.gov/) in the Fiscal Year 2008. The NCCWSC will produce science that will help resource management agencies anticipate and adapt to climate change impacts to fish, wildlife, and their habitats. With the release of Secretarial Order 3289 on September 14, 2009, the mandate of the NCCWSC was expanded to address climate change-related impacts on all Department of the Interior (DOI) resources. The NCCWSC will establish a network of eight DOI Regional Climate Science Centers (RCSCs) that will work with a variety of partners to provide natural resource managers with tools and information that will help them anticipate and adapt conservation planning and design for projected climate change. The forecasting products produced by the RCSCs will aid fish, wildlife, and land managers in designing suitable adaptive management approaches for their programs. The DOI also is developing Landscape Conservation Cooperatives (LCCs) as science and conservation action partnerships at subregional scales. The USGS is working with the Southeast Region of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS) to develop science collaboration between the future Southeast RCSC and future LCCs. The NCCWSC Southeast Regional Assessment Project (SERAP) will begin to develop regional downscaled climate models, land cover change models, regional ecological models, regional watershed models, and other science tools. Models and data produced by SERAP will be used in a collaborative process between the USGS, the FWS (LCCs), State and federal partners, nongovernmental organizations, and academia to produce science at appropriate scales to answer resource management questions. The SERAP will produce an assessment of climate change, and impacts on land cover, ecosystems, and priority species in the region. The predictive tools developed by the SERAP project team will allow end users to better understand potential impacts of climate change and sea level rise on terrestrial and aquatic populations in the Southeastern United States. The SERAP capitalizes on the integration of five existing projects: (1) the Multi-State Conservation Grants Program project "Designing Sustainable Landscapes," (2) the USGS multidisciplinary Science Thrust project "Water Availability for Ecological Needs," (3) the USGS Southeast Pilot Project "Climate Change in the Southeastern U.S. and its Impacts on Bird Distributions and Habitats," (4) a sea-level rise impacts study envisioned jointly with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and (5) two USGS sea-level rise impact assessment projects that address inundation hazards and provide probabilistic forecasts of coastal geomorphic change. The SERAP will expand on these existing projects and include the following tasks, which were initiated in summer 2009: * Regionally downscaled probabilistic climate-change projections * Integrated coastal assessment * Integrated terrestrial assessment * Multi-resolution assessment of potential climate change effects on biological resources: aquatic and hydrologic dynamics * Optimal conservation strategies to cope with climate change The SERAP seeks to formally integrate these tasks to aid conservation planning and design so that ecosystem management decisions can be optimized for providing desirable outcomes across a range of species and environments. The following chapters detail SERAP's efforts in providing a suite of regional climate, watershed, and landscape-change analyses and develop the interdisciplinary framework required for the biological planning phases of adaptive management and strategic conservation. The planning phase will include the identification of conservation alternatives, development of predictive models and decision support tools, and development of a template to address similar challenges and goals in other regions. The project teams will explore and develop ways to link the various ecological models arising from each component. The SERAP project team also will work closely with members of the LCCs and other partnerships throughout the life of the project to ensure that the objectives of the project meet resources mangers needs in the Southeast.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2017

U.S. Geological Survey Karst Interest Group Proceedings, San Antonio, Texas, May 16–18, 2017

Introduction and Acknowledgments Karst aquifer systems are present throughout parts of the United States and some of its territories, and have developed in carbonate rocks (primarily limestone and dolomite) and evaporites (gypsum, anhydrite, and halite) that span an interval of time encompassing more than 550 million years. The depositional environments, diagenetic processes, post-depositional tectonic events, and geochemical weathering processes that form karst aquifers are varied and complex. These factors involve biological, chemical, and physical changes that when combined with the diverse climatic regimes in which karst development has taken place, result in the unique dual- or triple-porosity nature of karst aquifers. These complex hydrogeologic systems typically represent challenging and unique conditions to scientists attempting to study groundwater flow and contaminant transport in these terrains. The dissolution of carbonate rocks and the subsequent development of distinct and beautiful landscapes, caverns, and springs have resulted in the most exceptional karst areas being designated as national or state parks. Tens of thousands of similar areas in the United States have been developed into commercial caverns and known privately owned caves. Both public and private properties provide access for scientists to study the flow of groundwater in situ . Likewise, the range and complexity of landforms and groundwater flow systems associated with karst terrains are enormous, perhaps more than for any other aquifer type. Karst aquifers and landscapes that form in tropical areas, such as the cockpit karst along the north coast of Puerto Rico, differ greatly from karst landforms in more arid climates, such as the Edwards Plateau in west-central Texas or the Guadalupe Mountains near Carlsbad, New Mexico, where hypogenic processes have played a major role in speleogenesis. Many of these public and private lands also contain unique flora and fauna associated with these karst hydrogeologic systems. As a result, numerous federal, state, and local agencies have a strong interest in the study of karst terrains. Many of the major springs and aquifers in the United States have developed in carbonate rocks, such as the Floridan aquifer system in Florida and parts of Alabama, Georgia, and South Carolina; the Ozark Plateaus aquifer system in parts of Arkansas, Kansas, Missouri, and Oklahoma; and the Edwards-Trinity aquifer system in west-central Texas. These aquifers, and the springs that discharge from them, serve as major water-supply sources and form unique ecological habitats. Competition for the water resources of karst aquifers is common, and urban development and the lack of attenuation of contaminants in karst areas due to dissolution features that form direct pathways into karst aquifers can impact the ecosystem and water quality associated with these aquifers. The concept for developing a platform for interaction among scientists within the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) working on karst-related studies evolved from the November 1999 National Groundwater Meeting of the USGS. As a result, the Karst Interest Group (KIG) was formed in 2000. The KIG is a loose-knit, grass-roots organization of USGS and non-USGS scientists and researchers devoted to fostering better communication among scientists working on, or interested in, karst science. The primary mission of the KIG is to encourage and support interdisciplinary collaboration and technology transfer among scientists working in karst areas. Additionally, the KIG encourages collaborative studies between the different mission areas of the USGS as well as with other federal and state agencies, and with researchers from academia and institutes. To accomplish its mission, the KIG has organized a series of workshops that have been held near nationally important karst areas. To date (2017) seven KIG workshops, including the workshop documented in this report, have been held. The workshops typically include oral and poster sessions on selected karst-related topics and research, as well as field trips to local karst areas. To increase non-USGS participation an effort was made for the workshops to be held at a university or institute beginning with the fourth workshop. Proceedings of the workshops are published by the USGS and are available online at the USGS publications warehouse https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/ by using the search term “karst interest group.” The first KIG workshop was held in St. Petersburg, Florida, in 2001, in the vicinity of the large springs and other karst features of the Floridan aquifer system. The second KIG workshop was held in 2002, in Shepherdstown, West Virginia, in proximity to the carbonate aquifers of the northern Shenandoah Valley, and highlighted an invited presentation on karst literature by the late Barry F. Beck of P.E. LaMoreaux and Associates. The third KIG workshop was held in 2005, in Rapid City, South Dakota, near evaporite karst features in limestones of the Madison Group in the Black Hills of South Dakota. The Rapid City KIG workshop included field trips to Wind Cave National Park and Jewel Cave National Monument, and featured a presentation by Thomas Casadevall, then USGS Central Region Director, on the status of Earth science at the USGS. The fourth KIG workshop in 2008 was hosted by the Hoffman Environmental Research Institute and Center for Cave and Karst Studies at Western Kentucky University in Bowling Green, Kentucky, near Mammoth Cave National Park and karst features of the Chester Upland and Pennyroyal Plateau. The workshop featured a late-night field trip into Mammoth Cave led by Rickard Toomey and Rick Olsen, National Park Service. The fifth KIG workshop in 2011 was a joint meeting of the USGS KIG and University of Arkansas HydroDays, hosted by the Department of Geosciences at the University of Arkansas in Fayetteville. The workshop featured an outstanding field trip to the unique karst terrain along the Buffalo National River in the southern Ozarks, and a keynote presentation on paleokarst in the United States was delivered by Art and Peggy Palmer. The sixth KIG workshop was hosted by the National Cave and Karst Research Institute (NCKRI) in 2014, in Carlsbad, New Mexico. George Veni, Director of the NCKRI, served as a co-chair of the workshop with Eve Kuniansky of the USGS. The workshop featured speaker Dr. Penelope Boston, Director of Cave and Karst Studies at New Mexico Tech, Socorro, and Academic Director at the NCKRI, who addressed the future of karst research. The field trip on evaporite karst of the lower Pecos Valley was led by Lewis Land (NCKRI karst hydrologist), and the field trip on the geology of Carlsbad Caverns National Park was led by George Veni. This current seventh KIG workshop is being held in San Antonio at the University of Texas at San Antonio (UTSA). This 2017 workshop is being hosted by the Department of Geological Sciences’ Student Geological Society (SGS), and student chapters of the American Association of Petroleum Geologists (AAPG) and Association of Engineering Geologists (AEG), with support by the UTSA Department of Geological Sciences and Center for Water Research. The UTSA student chapter presidents, Jose Silvestre (SGS), John Cooper (AAPG), and Tyler Mead (AEG) serve as co-chairs of the 2017 workshop with Eve Kuniansky of the USGS. The technical session committee is chaired by Eve Kuniansky, USGS, and includes Michael Bradley, Tom Byl, Rebecca Lambert, John Lane, and James Kaufmann, all USGS, and Patrick Tucci, retired USGS. The logistics committee includes Amy Clark, Yongli Gao, and Lance Lambert (Department Chair), UTSA Department of Geological Sciences; and Ryan Banta and Allan Clark, USGS, San Antonio, Texas. The field trip committee is chaired by Allan Clark and includes Amy Clark, Yongli Gao, and Keith Muehlestein, UTSA; Marcus Gary, Edwards Aquifer Authority and University of Texas at Austin; Ron Green, Southwest Research Institute; Geary Schindel, Edwards Aquifer Authority; and George Veni, NCKRI. Additionally, two organizations have assisted the UTSA student chapters in hosting the meeting by donating funds to the chapters: the Edwards Aquifer Authority, San Antonio, Texas, and the Barton Springs Edwards Aquifer Authority, Austin, Texas. Additionally, Yongli Gao, Center for Water Research and Department of Geological Sciences, UTSA, helped develop sessions on cave and karst research in China for this workshop. These proceedings could not have been accomplished without the assistance of Lawrence E. Spangler as co-editor who not only has subject matter expertise, but also serves as an editor with the USGS Science Publishing Network. We sincerely hope that this workshop continues to promote future collaboration among scientists of varied and diverse backgrounds, and improves our understanding of karst aquifer systems in the United States and its territories. The extended abstracts of USGS authors were peer reviewed and approved for publication by the USGS. Articles submitted by university researchers and other federal and state agencies did not go through the formal USGS peer review and approval process, and therefore may not adhere to USGS editorial standards or stratigraphic nomenclature. However, all articles had a minimum of two peer reviews and were edited for consistency of appearance in the proceedings. The use of trade, firm or product names is for descriptive purposes only and does not imply endorsement by the U.S. Government. The USGS Water Availability and Use Science Program funded the publication costs of the proceedings.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2013

Identification of metrics to monitor salt marsh integrity on National Wildlife Refuges in relation to conservation and management objectives

Executive Summary Most salt marshes in the US have been degraded by human activities, and threats from physical alterations, surrounding land-use, species invasions, and global climate change persist. Salt marshes are unique and highly productive ecosystems with high intrinsic value to wildlife, and many National Wildlife Refuges (NWRs) have been established in coastal areas to protect large tracts of salt marsh and wetland-dependent species. Various management practices are employed routinely on coastal NWRs to restore and enhance marsh integrity and ensure ecosystem sustainability. Prioritizing NWR salt marshes for application of management actions and choosing among multiple management options requires scientifically-based methods for assessing marsh condition. Monitoring is integral to structured decision-making (SDM), a formal process for decomposing a decision into its essential elements. Within a natural resource context, SDM involves identifying management objectives, alternative management actions, and expected management outcomes. The core of SDM is a set of criteria for measuring system performance and evaluating management responses. Therefore, use of SDM to frame natural resource decisions leads to logical selection of monitoring attributes that are linked explicitly to management needs. We used SDM to guide selection of variables for monitoring the ecological integrity of salt marshes within the National Wildlife Refuge System (NWRS). Our objectives were to identify indicators of salt marsh integrity that are effective across large geographic regions, responsive to a wide range of threats, and feasible to implement within funding and staffing constraints of the NWRS. In April, 2008, we engaged interdisciplinary experts in a week-long rapid prototyping SDM workshop to define the essential elements of salt marsh management decisions on refuges throughout the northeastern, southwestern, and northwestern US, corresponding to respective Regions 5, 2, and 1 of the US Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS). Through this process we identified measurable attributes for monitoring salt marsh ecosystems that are integrated into conservation practice and target management objectives. The following salt marsh attributes were identified through the SDM process either for describing state condition to determine management needs or for evaluating the achievement of management objectives: historical condition and geomorphic setting; ditch density; surrounding land use; ratio of open water area to vegetation area; rate of pesticide application; environmental contaminant concentration; change in marsh surface elevation relative to sea level rise; tidal range and groundwater level; surface topography; salinity; and species composition and abundance of vegetation, invasive species, invertebrates, nekton, and breeding and wintering birds. The identified attributes were too broadly defined to serve as operational monitoring variables. Therefore, we tested specific metrics for quantifying most of these attributes in summers of 2008 and 2009. The first four attributes in the above list can be characterized by office-based analysis of existing GIS data layers. The remaining attributes require field-based methods for assessment. We were forced to exclude a small number of attributes from field tests due to inconsistent data (pesticide application rate, environmental contaminant concentrations) or requirements that exceeded the scope of this project (change in marsh surface elevation; surface topography; benthic invertebrates; wintering birds). We evaluated potential metrics for evaluating all remaining field attributes. In partnership with NWRS biologists, we tested rapid versus intensive metrics for monitoring field attributes (tidal range and groundwater level; marsh surface elevation; salinity; and species composition and abundance of vegetation, invasive species, nekton, and breeding birds) at coastal refuges throughout FWS Region 5. Seven refuges participated in metric testing in 2008: Rachel Carson (ME), Parker River (MA), Wertheim (NY), E. B. Forsythe (NJ), Bombay Hook (DE), Prime Hook (DE), and Eastern Shore of Virginia Complex (VA). These seven and two additional refuges participated in metric testing in 2009: Rhode Island Complex (RI) and Stewart B. McKinney (CT). We based all field metrics on existing protocols for salt marsh assessment. Sampling locations were determined randomly within delineated marsh study units (MSUs) at each refuge. Detailed field methods are provided in appendices to this report. Measurements for individual metrics were averaged across samples within MSUs during each year of sampling. Each year, correlation or regression analysis was conducted on average measurements across MSUs within each attribute set to identify redundant metrics. Statistical redundancy between a pair of metrics within an attribute set (i.e., correlation or regression slopes with p-values < 0.05) was considered justification for eliminating one of the pair from the regional set of monitoring metrics. Decisions regarding metric elimination versus retention were based on feasibility of monitoring, considering such factors as sampling time, resources required, and potential for regional standardization in implementation. The result of these tests is a reduced suite of monitoring metrics that targets NWRS management decisions and is practicable for implementing on a regional scale. Based on these tests, we recommend the following list of metrics for monitoring integrity of NWRS salt marshes (marsh attribute category is in parentheses): (historical condition and geomorphic setting) position of marsh in the landscape, marsh shape, degree of fill and/or fragmentation, degree of tidal flushing, amount of aquatic edge; (ditch density) ranking of ditch density from none to severe; (surrounding land use) relative proportion of agricultural land in a 150-m buffer around the marsh, relative proportion of natural land in a 150-m buffer around the marsh, relative proportion of natural land in a 1-km buffer around the marsh; (ratio of open water area to vegetation area) ratio of open water to emergent herbaceous wetlands within the marsh; (marsh surface elevation) elevation referenced to NAVD88 in a representative area of the marsh; (tidal range and groundwater level) percent of time the marsh surface is flooded during deployment of a continuous water-level monitor at a representative marsh location, mean depth of surface flooding as measured by a continuous water-level monitor at a representative location; (salinity) salinity measured in surface water; (vegetation community) vegetation species richness using the point-intercept method in 100-m diameter survey plots, percent cover of various marsh community types within 100-m diameter survey plots; (invasive species abundance) percent cover of invasive plant species measured using the point-intercept method in 100-m diameter survey plots; (nekton community) nekton density, nekton species richness, length of Fundulus heteroclitus ; (breeding bird community) abundance of Willets counted per point during standard call-broadcast surveys, summed abundance of tidal marsh obligate species (Clapper Rail, Willet, Saltmarsh Sparrow, Seaside Sparrow) counted per point during standard call-broadcast surveys. Metrics describing the historical condition, geomorphic setting, and broad landscape features can be assessed using existing GIS databases. Our results support use of rapid methods to assess the majority of field metrics; only those used to describe the nekton community must be measured using intensive methods (throw traps or ditch nets, dependant on habitat configuration). Implementation of these metrics for quantitative assessment of NWRS salt marsh integrity in FWS Region 5 requires developing sampling designs for each refuge. Additionally, it is important to determine how the monitoring information will be used within a management context. SDM should be used to complete the analysis of salt marsh management decisions. The next steps would involve 1) prioritizing and weighting the management objectives; 2) predicting responses to individual management actions in terms of objectives and metrics; 3) using multiattribute utility theory to convert all measurable attributes to a common utility scale; 4) determining the total management benefit of each action by summing utilities across objectives; and 5) maximizing the total management benefits within cost constraints for each refuge. This process would allow the optimum management decisions for NWRS salt marshes to be selected and implemented based directly on monitoring data and current understanding of marsh responses to management actions. Monitoring the outcome of management actions would then allow new monitoring data to be incorporated into subsequent decisions.

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