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USGS2000

Middle- and late-Wisconsin paleobotanic and paleoclimatic records from the southern Colorado Plateau, USA

The Colorado Plateau is a distinct physiographic province in western North America, which presently straddles the transition between summer-wet and summer-dry climatic regimes to the south and northwest, respectively. In addition to climate, the diversity of environments and plant communities on the Colorado Plateau has resulted from extreme topographic diversity. Desert lowlands as low as 360 m elevation are surrounded by forested plateaus, and even higher peaks greater than 3800 m elevation. This environmental diversity provides a unique opportunity to study the history of biotic communities in an arid region of North America. Although the Colorado Plateau harbours numerous potential sites, the paleoecological record of the Plateau is poorly known. Potential deposits for analysis include packrat middens, alluvial and cave sites at lower elevations, and lake, bog and wetland sites at higher elevations. Forty-six sites have been analysed across the nearly 337,000 km2 region, of which 27 contain records that span Marine Oxygen Isotope Stage (IS) 2 data, with IS 3 information coming from only 12 sites. Most IS 2 and 3 sites are clustered along the lowland regions of the Colorado River corridor and the uplands of the Mogollon Rim area. We compiled selected data from long paleoecological records to examine patterns of vegetation and climate change across the southern Colorado Plateau for the middle and late Wisconsin. During the middle Wisconsin, mixed conifers covered middle-elevations presently dominated by ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa), and juniper (Juniperus) woodland grew at elevations today covered by blackbrush (Coleogyne) and sagebrush (Artemisia) desert. During the late Wisconsin, boreal conifers, primarily Engelmann spruce (Picea engelmannii), replaced the mixed conifer association. Estimates of mean annual temperatures (MAT) during IS 3 were at least 3-4??C cooler than today, whereas IS 2 MAT estimates are at least 5??C colder. Our investigation of millennial-scale climatic variability within the region provided equivocal results. The packrat midden sequence could not distinguish vegetation changes that might be associated with Heinrich events in the North Atlantic. From the lake records, however, many Heinrich events were associated with generally drier intervals, often with elevated sagebrush pollen concentrations. Future paleoecological investigations should concentrate on the northern Colorado Plateau, as well as the eastern and western margins. Additional sites, along with closer-spaced sampling in regions already studied, will be important in determining the history of important climatic phenomena such as the timing of the Arizona monsoon.

Conference Paper↗

USGS2016

Climate, streamflow, and legacy effects on growth of riparian Populus angustifolia in the arid San Luis Valley, Colorado

Knowledge of the factors affecting the vigor of desert riparian trees is important for their conservation and management. I used multiple regression to assess effects of streamflow and climate (12–14 years of data) or climate alone (up to 60 years of data) on radial growth of clonal narrowleaf cottonwood ( Populus angustifolia ), a foundation species in the arid, Closed Basin portion of the San Luis Valley, Colorado. I collected increment cores from trees (14–90 cm DBH) at four sites along each of Sand and Deadman creeks (total N = 85), including both perennial and ephemeral reaches. Analyses on trees <110 m from the stream channel explained 33–64% of the variation in standardized growth index (SGI) over the period having discharge measurements. Only 3 of 7 models included a streamflow variable; inclusion of prior-year conditions was common. Models for trees farther from the channel or over a deep water table explained 23–71% of SGI variability, and 4 of 5 contained a streamflow variable. Analyses using solely climate variables over longer time periods explained 17–85% of SGI variability, and 10 of 12 included a variable indexing summer precipitation. Three large, abrupt shifts in recent decades from wet to dry conditions (indexed by a seasonal Palmer Drought Severity Index) coincided with dramatically reduced radial growth. Each shift was presumably associated with branch dieback that produced a legacy effect apparent in many SGI series: uncharacteristically low SGI in the year following the shift. My results suggest trees in locations distant from the active channel rely on the regional shallow unconfined aquifer, summer rainfall, or both to meet water demands. The landscape-level differences in the water supplies sustaining these trees imply variable effects from shifts in winter-versus monsoon-related precipitation, and from climate change versus streamflow or groundwater management.

California↗

USGS1996

Climatic significance of the bristlecone pine latewood frost-ring record at Almagre Mountain, Colorado, U.S.A.

From 1900 to 1993, latewood frost rings occurred in 1903, 1912, 1941, 1961, and 1965 in 10 to 21% of the sampled bristlecone pines at Almagre Mountain, Colorado. In early to mid September in each of those years, a severe outbreak of unseasonably cold air from higher latitudes produced a memorable or historic late-summer snowstorm in the western United States. Record subfreezing temperatures during these snowstorms probably caused the latewood frost rings, shortened (by about 1 mo in 1912) already colder than normal growing seasons, and caused crop damage in parts of the Western United States. Latewood frost rings recorded in relatively high percentages of the sampled trees (such as the 1805 event in 61% of sampled trees) were probably caused by multiple severe outbreaks of unseasonably cold air from higher latitudes that occurred from early September (possibly as early as mid- or late August) to mid-September. Analyses of 1900-1992 temperature data for two widely separated Colorado stations, Fort Collins and Colorado Springs, show that average summer (June-September) temperatures during latewood frost-ring years in this century were 1.5 and 2.0°C cooler than normal, respectively. Mountain snowpack probably persisted through these cool summers and was subsequently buried by the earlier than normal snowfall in September. Latewood frost-ring, ring-width, historical, and other data suggest that severe to cataclysmic volcanic eruptions from 1812 to 1835 triggered (1) an extended period of climatic cooling from as early as 1816 or 1817 through the early 1850s in the Southern Rocky Mountains, (2) catastrophic winters in Colorado and Wyoming in 1842-43 and 1844-45, and in the Great Salt Lake Basin in 1836-37, that caused large-scale destruction of bison and other large plains animals, and (3) Little Ice Age alpine glacial advances in about 1850-60 in the western United States.

Colorado↗

USGS2023

Under-forecasting wet avalanche cycles: Case studies and lessons learned from two wet avalanche cycles in northwest Montana and central Colorado

Predicting the timing and location of natural wet avalanche events is challenging, especially the release of wet slabs. In this study, we describe the existing snowpack structure, weather, and observed avalanche activity for two separate wet avalanche cycles in different avalanche climate types: northwest Montana and central Colorado. In both cases, the regional avalanche forecast centers initially predicted an avalanche hazard rating lower than the observed avalanche hazard and did not initially predict the occurrence of wet slab avalanches. Large wet slab avalanche activity began during the early stages of the first, rapid warming event of the season in both regions, challenging the notion that a lack of overnight refreeze is important for large wet avalanche cycles. This highlights the need for improvement in forecasting wet avalanche events/cycles. Here, we discuss lessons learned and operational strategies for improving forecast accuracy during significant melting events. These include focused field assessments in shallow snowpack areas and low elevation terrain, proactive late-day monitoring beyond normal field hours, and additional meteorological considerations, such as cloud cover and energy balance assessments, prior to and during notable warm-ups.

Colorado, Montana↗

USGS1976

Water resources of Dinosaur National Monument, Colorado and Utah

Dinosaur National Monument, partly in the Rocky Mountain System and partly in the Colorado Plateaus physiographic province, covers an area of 322 square miles (834 square kilometres) in northwestern Colorado and northeastern Utah. The climate is generally cool and pleasant in May, early June, September, and October; winters are cold. Normal annual precipitation ranges from less than 8 to more than 16 inches (203 to 406 millimetres). Geologic formations in the monument range in age from upper Precambrian to Holocene, but not all ages are represented. The monument is on the south limb of the east-trending regional fold representing the Uinta Mountains. Faults and subsidary folds on the south slope of the Uinta Mountains complicate the geology and hydrology of the area. None of the surface streams in the monument are diverted for public supply, but the Green and Yampa Rivers are a recreational resource for boaters. The flow of the Green River is regulated by Flaming Gorge Reservoir; however, flood potentials are estimated for the Yampa River and three smaller streams. Facilities in the monument are not endangered by probable mean annual floods, but may sustain some damage to facilities by the 25- or 50-year floods. Major aquifers in the monument are sandstone and limestone formations, but these formations are drained in the higher areas. Alluvium along the major stream channels yields small amounts of water to wells, but some of the water is not of suitable chemical quality for public supply. All public water supplies in 1971 were obtained from wells, and the use of water during 1970 was estimated to be 15 million gallons (46 acre-feet or 0.057 cubic hectometres). Most of the ground water obtained from sandstone and limestone is of suitable chemical quality for public supply.

Colorado, Utah↗

USGS2015

Climate change and wildfire risk in an expanding wildland–urban interface: a case study from the Colorado Front Range Corridor

Context Wildfire is a particular concern in the wildland–urban interface (WUI) of the western United States where human development occurs close to flammable natural vegetation. Objectives (1) Assess the relative influences of WUI expansion versus climate-driven fire regime change on spatial and temporal patterns of burned WUI, and (2) determine whether WUI developed in the future will have higher or lower wildfire risk than existing WUI. Methods We projected the spatial pattern of the WUI and its associated wildfire risk from 2005 to 2050 at 90-m spatial resolution and 5-year intervals in Colorado Front Range using CHANGE, a landscape change model that simulates land cover and land use change, natural vegetation dynamics, and wildfire in a unified framework. A total of four scenarios from a factorial design with static versus changing WUI and static versus changing fire regimes were simulated to examine the effects of WUI expansion and climate-driven fire regime change on burned area in the WUI. Results Both WUI expansion and fire regime change contributed to the increase of burned WUI, but fire regime change had a stronger influence. The effects of WUI expansion and fire regime change had a combined influence greater than the sum of their individual effects. This interaction was a result of projected WUI expansion into regions of higher wildfire risk than existing WUI. Conclusions The human footprint will continue to expand into wildland areas and must be considered along with climate effects when assessing the impacts of changing fire regimes in future landscapes.

Landscape Ecology↗

USGS1982

Evaluation of sediment yield and sediment data-collection network in the Piceance basin, northwestern Colorado

Statistical relationships were developed between suspended-sediment discharge and several regional factors of climate, physiography, and land use in the Piceance basin, northwestern Colorado. The purpose of the study was to evaluate the existing sediment collection network, especially in regard to detecting changes in suspended-sediment discharge due to the development in the basin. Spatial- and time variability were examined using multiple linear regression techniques. Because of the short period of record, monthly mean sediment loads were used to determine shifts or changes in trends due to mining and related activities in the basin. Dummy variable analysis was used to detect these premining and postmining differences in the regression lines and also to detect seasonal differences in the sediment discharge. Differences did exist in the sediment discharge from season to season and before and after mining; however, due to the variability and short period of record the cause of these differences could not be adequately determined. Part of the high variability in sediment discharge was due to variability in the water discharge. Therefore, if the network is to be improved, the emphasis needs to be on improvement of the water-discharge. The results of the monthly mean regression analysis were used in the mean monthly and mean annual analysis for determination of initial network design equations. These were only preliminary in nature and could be improved with additional data. (USGS)

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

USGS1988

Climate and ephemeral-stream processes: Twentieth-century geomorphology and alluvial stratigraphy of the Little Colorado River, Arizona

During the first 40 years of the twentieth century, erosion was the dominant geomorphic process affecting the morphology of the Little Colorado River channel. The discharge regimen was one of frequent large floods and high annual discharge that created a wide sandy channel free of vegetation. In the 1940s and early 1950s, average annual precipitation declined, reducing annual discharge to about 57% of that of the preceding period as well as reducing the frequency of large floods. The channel adjusted to the new hydrologic regimen by reducing its width. Parts of the channel were frequently dry, and riparian vegetation, primarily nonnative salt cedar, became established on the higher channel surfaces. Precipitation and discharge thereafter increased and aggradation by overbank deposition was the primary geomorphic process, as indicated by accretion of 2 to 5 m of flood-plain alluvium between 1952 and 1978. Events of 1980, however, suggest that the flood plain has ceased to accrete, although climate has not fluctuated. The flood plain has probably reached a critical height above the channel, beyond which further accretion is unlikely under the existing discharge regimen. The recent history of the Little Colorado broadly suggests that flood-plain development was initiated by climatically induced hydrologic fluctuations. Flood-plain deposits in the stratigraphic column of such ephemeral streams may record repeated adjustments to altered hydrologic conditions.

Arizona, New Mexico↗

USGS2020

Colorado River flow dwindles as warming-driven loss of reflective snow energizes evaporation

The sensitivity of river discharge to climate-system warming is highly uncertain, and the processes that govern river discharge are poorly understood, which impedes climate-change adaptation. A prominent exemplar is the Colorado River, where meteorological drought and warming are shrinking a water resource that supports more than 1 trillion dollars of economic activity per year. A Monte Carlo simulation with a radiation-aware hydrologic model resolves the longstanding, wide disparity in sensitivity estimates and reveals the controlling physical processes. We estimate that annual mean discharge has been decreasing by 9.3% per degree Celsius of warming because of increased evapotranspiration, mainly driven by snow loss and a consequent decrease in reflection of solar radiation. Projected precipitation increases likely will not suffice to fully counter the robust, thermodynamically induced drying. Thus, an increasing risk of severe water shortages is expected.

Arizona, Colorado, Idaho, New Mexico, Utah, Wyomin↗

USGS2012

The influence of reservoirs, climate, land use and hydrologic conditions on loads and chemical quality of dissolved organic carbon in the Colorado River

Longitudinal patterns in dissolved organic carbon (DOC) loads and chemical quality were identified in the Colorado River from the headwaters in the Rocky Mountains to the United States-Mexico border from 1994 to 2011. Watershed- and reach-scale climate, land use, river discharge and hydrologic modification conditions that contribute to patterns in DOC were also identified. Principal components analysis (PCA) identified site-specific precipitation and reach-scale discharge as being correlated with sites in the upper basin, where there were increases in DOC load from the upstream to downstream direction. In the lower basin, where DOC load decreased from upstream to downstream, sites were correlated with site-specific temperature and reach-scale population, urban land use and hydrologic modification. In the reaches containing Lakes Powell and Mead, the two largest reservoirs in the United States, DOC quantity decreased, terrestrially derived aromatic DOC was degraded and/or autochthonous less aromatic DOC was produced. Taken together, these results suggest that longitudinal patterns in the relatively unregulated upper basin are influenced by watershed inputs of water and DOC, whereas DOC patterns in the lower basin are reflective of a balance between watershed contribution of water and DOC to the river and loss of water and DOC due to hydrologic modification and/or biogeochemical processes. These findings suggest that alteration of constituent fluxes in rivers that are highly regulated may overshadow watershed processes that would control fluxes in comparable unregulated rivers. Further, these results provide a foundation for detailed assessments of factors controlling the transport and chemical quality of DOC in the Colorado River.

Arizona, California, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico,↗

USGS2017

Application of synthetic scenarios to address water resource concerns: A management-guided case study from the Upper Colorado River Basin

Water managers are increasingly interested in better understanding and planning for projected resource impacts from climate change. In this management-guided study, we use a very large suite of synthetic climate scenarios in a statistical modeling framework to simultaneously evaluate how (1) average temperature and precipitation changes, (2) initial basin conditions, and (3) temporal characteristics of the input climate data influence water-year flow in the Upper Colorado River. The results here suggest that existing studies may underestimate the degree of uncertainty in future streamflow, particularly under moderate temperature and precipitation changes. However, we also find that the relative severity of future flow projections within a given climate scenario can be estimated with simple metrics that characterize the input climate data and basin conditions. These results suggest that simple testing, like the analyses presented in this paper, may be helpful in understanding differences between existing studies or in identifying specific conditions for physically based mechanistic modeling. Both options could reduce overall cost and improve the efficiency of conducting climate change impacts studies.

Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Utah, Wyoming↗

USGS2023

Restoration research actions to address rapid change in drylands: Insights from the Colorado Plateau

The rapid intensification of ecological extremes in response to climate change and human land use is perhaps nowhere more apparent than in drylands, including the semiarid region of the Colorado Plateau in the southwestern United States. Here, we describe research directions to aid in the restoration of Colorado Plateau ecosystems during the UN Decade on Ecosystem Restoration (2021–2030) that 1) address high levels of heterogeneity 2) explore simultaneous global change drivers 3) are co-produced with a broad range of partners and 4) center Indigenous ways of knowing. We highlight restoration research efforts led by early career scientists grappling with informing management actions in a region where a rapidly changing climate intersects with historic grazing and continued land use pressures to create novel ecological extremes. We highlight restoration research efforts led by early career researchers grappling with informing management actions in a region where novel ecological extremes are the result of historic grazing, continued land-use pressures, and a rapidly changing climate.

Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Utah↗

USGS2015

Hydrologic implications of GRACE satellite data in the Colorado River Basin

Use of GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment) satellites for assessing global water resources is rapidly expanding. Here we advance application of GRACE satellites by reconstructing long-term total water storage (TWS) changes from ground-based monitoring and modeling data. We applied the approach to the Colorado River Basin which has experienced multiyear intense droughts at decadal intervals. Estimated TWS declined by 94 km 3 during 1986–1990 and by 102 km 3 during 1998–2004, similar to the TWS depletion recorded by GRACE (47 km 3 ) during 2010–2013. Our analysis indicates that TWS depletion is dominated by reductions in surface reservoir and soil moisture storage in the upper Colorado basin with additional reductions in groundwater storage in the lower basin. Groundwater storage changes are controlled mostly by natural responses to wet and dry cycles and irrigation pumping outside of Colorado River delivery zones based on ground-based water level and gravity data. Water storage changes are controlled primarily by variable water inputs in response to wet and dry cycles rather than increasing water use. Surface reservoir storage buffers supply variability with current reservoir storage representing ∼2.5 years of available water use. This study can be used as a template showing how to extend short-term GRACE TWS records and using all available data on storage components of TWS to interpret GRACE data, especially within the context of droughts.

Water Resources Research↗

USGS2015

Desert grassland responses to climate and soil moisture suggest divergent vulnerabilities across the southwestern United States

Climate change predictions include warming and drying trends, which are expected to be particularly pronounced in the southwestern United States. In this region, grassland dynamics are tightly linked to available moisture, yet it has proven difficult to resolve what aspects of climate drive vegetation change. In part, this is because it is unclear how heterogeneity in soils affects plant responses to climate. Here, we combine climate and soil properties with a mechanistic soil water model to explain temporal fluctuations in perennial grass cover, quantify where and the degree to which incorporating soil water dynamics enhances our ability to understand temporal patterns, and explore the potential consequences of climate change by assessing future trajectories of important climate and soil water variables. Our analyses focused on long-term (20–56 years) perennial grass dynamics across the Colorado Plateau, Sonoran, and Chihuahuan Desert regions. Our results suggest that climate variability has negative effects on grass cover, and that precipitation subsidies that extend growing seasons are beneficial. Soil water metrics, including the number of dry days and availability of water from deeper (>30 cm) soil layers, explained additional grass cover variability. While individual climate variables were ranked as more important in explaining grass cover, collectively soil water accounted for 40–60% of the total explained variance. Soil water conditions were more useful for understanding the responses of C 3 than C 4 grass species. Projections of water balance variables under climate change indicate that conditions that currently support perennial grasses will be less common in the future, and these altered conditions will be more pronounced in the Chihuahuan Desert and Colorado Plateau. We conclude that incorporating multiple aspects of climate and accounting for soil variability can improve our ability to understand patterns, identify areas of vulnerability, and predict the future of desert grasslands.

Global Change Biology↗

USGS2022

Geologic, geomorphic, and edaphic underpinnings of dryland ecosystems: Colorado Plateau landscapes in a changing world

Drylands represent more than 41% of the global land surface and are at degradation risk due to land use and climate change. Developing strategies to mitigate degradation and restore drylands in the face of these threats requires an understanding of how drylands are shaped by not only soils and climate, but also geology and geomorphology. However, few studies have completed such a comprehensive analysis that relates spatial variation in plant communities to all aspects of the geologic–geomorphic–edaphic–plant–climate system. The focus of this study is the Colorado Plateau, a high-elevation dryland in the southwestern United States, which is particularly sensitive to future change due to climate vulnerability and increasing land-use pressure. Here, we examined 135 long-term vegetation-monitoring sites in three national parks and characterized connections between geology, geomorphology, soils, climate, and dryland plant communities. To first understand the geologic and geomorphic influences on soil formation and characteristics, we explore associations between soil pedons, bedrock geology, and geomorphology. Then, we characterize principal axes of variation in plant communities and ascertain controls and linkages between components of the edaphic–geomorphic system and plant community ordinations. Geologic and geomorphic substrate exerted controls on important properties of the soil profile, particularly depth, water-holding capacity, rockiness, salinity, and fine sands. Ordination identified five distinct plant communities and three primary axes of variation, representing gradients of woody- to herbaceous-dominated communities (Axis 1), saline scrublands to C 3 grasslands (Axis 2), and annual to perennial communities (Axis 3). Geology, geomorphology, and soil explained a large proportion of variation in Axis 1 (74%), while climate variables largely explained Axis 2 (68%), and Axis 3 was not well explained by the random forest models. The variables identified as most influential to each axis were, respectively: (1) soil depth; (2) aridity, lithology, and soil salinity; and (3) temperature and precipitation. We posit that Axis 3 represents a land degradation gradient due to historic grazing, likely exacerbated by dry conditions. Results provide a novel framework that links the geologic and geomorphic evolution of landscapes, with the distribution of soils and plant communities that can guide ecosystem management, exemplifying an approach applicable to drylands globally.

Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Utah↗

USGS2015

Western water and climate change

The western United States is a region long defined by water challenges. Climate change adds to those historical challenges, but does not, for the most part, introduce entirely new challenges; rather climate change is likely to stress water supplies and resources already in many cases stretched to, or beyond, natural limits. Projections are for continued and, likely, increased warming trends across the region, with a near certainty of continuing changes in seasonality of snowmelt and streamflows, and a strong potential for attendant increases in evaporative demands. Projections of future precipitation are less conclusive, although likely the northernmost West will see precipitation increases while the southernmost West sees declines. However, most of the region lies in a broad area where some climate models project precipitation increases while others project declines, so that only increases in precipitation uncertainties can be projected with any confidence. Changes in annual and seasonal hydrographs are likely to challenge water managers, users, and attempts to protect or restore environmental flows, even where annual volumes change little. Other impacts from climate change (e.g., floods and water-quality changes) are poorly understood and will likely be location dependent. In this context, four iconic river basins offer glimpses into specific challenges that climate change may bring to the West. The Colorado River is a system in which overuse and growing demands are projected to be even more challenging than climate-change-induced flow reductions. The Rio Grande offers the best example of how climate-change-induced flow declines might sink a major system into permanent drought. The Klamath is currently projected to face the more benign precipitation future, but fisheries and irrigation management may face dire straits due to warming air temperatures, rising irrigation demands, and warming waters in a basin already hobbled by tensions between endangered fisheries and agricultural demands. Finally, California's Bay-Delta system is a remarkably localized and severe weakness at the heart of the region's trillion-dollar economy. It is threatened by the full range of potential climate-change impacts expected across the West, along with major vulnerabilities to increased flooding and rising sea levels.

Ecological Applications↗

USGS2018

Snow sublimation in mountain environments and its sensitivity to forest disturbance and climate warming

Snow sublimation is an important component of the snow mass balance, but the spatial and temporal variability of this process is not well understood in mountain environments. This study combines a process‐based snow model (SnowModel) with eddy covariance (EC) measurements to investigate (1) the spatio‐temporal variability of simulated snow sublimation with respect to station observations, (2) the contribution of snow sublimation to the ablation of the snowpack, and (3) the sensitivity and response of snow sublimation to bark beetle‐induced forest mortality and climate warming across the north‐central Colorado Rocky Mountains. EC‐based observations of snow sublimation compared well with simulated snow sublimation at stations dominated by surface and canopy sublimation, but blowing snow sublimation in alpine areas was not well captured by the EC instrumentation. Water balance calculations provided an important validation of simulated sublimation at the watershed scale. Simulated snow sublimation across the study area was equivalent to 28% of winter precipitation on average, and the highest relative snow sublimation fluxes occurred during the lowest snow years. Snow sublimation from forested areas accounted for the majority of sublimation fluxes, highlighting the importance of canopy and sub‐canopy surface sublimation in this region. Simulations incorporating the effects of tree mortality due to bark‐beetle disturbance resulted in a 4% reduction in snow sublimation from forested areas. Snow sublimation rates corresponding to climate warming simulations remained unchanged or slightly increased, but total sublimation losses decreased by up to 6% because of a reduction in snow covered area and duration.

Water Resources Research↗

USGS2014

Characterizing recent and projecting future potential patterns of mountain pine beetle outbreaks in the Southern Rocky Mountains

The recent widespread mountain pine beetle (MPB) outbreak in the Southern Rocky Mountains presents an opportunity to investigate the relative influence of anthropogenic, biologic, and physical drivers that have shaped the spatiotemporal patterns of the outbreak. The aim of this study was to quantify the landscape-level drivers that explained the dynamic patterns of MPB mortality, and simulate areas with future potential MPB mortality under projected climate-change scenarios in Grand County, Colorado, USA. The outbreak patterns of MPB were characterized by analysis of a decade-long Landsat time-series stack, aided by automatic attribution of change detected by the Landsat-based Detection of Trends in Disturbance and Recovery algorithm (LandTrendr). The annual area of new MPB mortality was then related to a suite of anthropogenic, biologic, and physical predictor variables under a general linear model (GLM) framework. Data from years 2001–2005 were used to train the model and data from years 2006–2011 were retained for validation. After stepwise removal of non-significant predictors, the remaining predictors in the GLM indicated that neighborhood mortality, winter mean temperature anomaly, and residential housing density were positively associated with MPB mortality, whereas summer precipitation was negatively related. The final model had an average area under the curve (AUC) of a receiver operating characteristic plot value of 0.72 in predicting the annual area of new mortality for the independent validation years, and the mean deviation from the base maps in the MPB mortality areal estimates was around 5%. The extent of MPB mortality will likely expand under two climate-change scenarios (RCP 4.5 and 8.5) in Grand County, which implies that the impacts of MPB outbreaks on vegetation composition and structure, and ecosystem functioning are likely to increase in the future.

Colorado↗