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At least 109 records · Page 6Linked to original sources

USGS1997

Daily air temperature interpolated at high spatial resolution over a large mountainous region

Two methods are investigated for interpolating daily minimum and maximum air temperatures ( T min and T max ) at a 1 km spatial resolution over a large mountainous region (830000 km 2 ) in the U.S. Pacific Northwest. The methods were selected because of their ability to (1) account for the effect of elevation on temperature and (2) efficiently handle large volumes of data. The first method, the neutral stability algorithm (NSA), used the hydrostatic and potential temperature equations to convert measured temperatures and elevations to sea-level potential temperatures. The potential temperatures were spatially interpolated using an inverse-squared-distance algorithm and then mapped to the elevation surface of a digital elevation model (DEM). The second method, linear lapse rate adjustment (LLRA), involved the same basic procedure as the NSA, but used a constant linear lapse rate instead of the potential temperature equation. Cross-validation analyses were performed using the NSA and LLRA methods to interpolate T min and T max each day for the 1990 water year, and the methods were evaluated based on mean annual interpolation error (IE). The NSA method showed considerable bias for sites associated with vertical extrapolation. A correction based on climate station/grid cell elevation differences was developed and found to successfully remove the bias. The LLRA method was tested using 3 lapse rates, none of which produced a serious extrapolation bias. The bias-adjusted NSA and the 3 LLRA methods produced almost identical levels of accuracy (mean absolute errors between 1.2 and 1.3°C), and produced very similar temperature surfaces based on image difference statistics. In terms of accuracy, speed, and ease of implementation, LLRA was chosen as the best of the methods tested.

Columbia River basin↗

USGS1997

Climate change and the detection of trends in annual runoff

This study examines the statistical likelihood of detecting a trend in annual runoff given an assumed change in mean annual runoff, the underlying year-to-year variability in runoff, and serial correlation of annual runoff. Means, standard deviations, and lag-1 serial correlations of annual runoff were computed for 585 stream gages in the conterminous United States, and these statistics were used to compute the probability of detecting a prescribed trend in annual runoff. Assuming a linear 20% change in mean annual runoff over a 100 yr period and a significance level of 95%, the average probability of detecting a significant trend was 28% among the 585 stream gages. The largest probability of detecting a trend was in the northwestern U.S., the Great Lakes region, the northeastern U.S., the Appalachian Mountains, and parts of the northern Rocky Mountains. The smallest probability of trend detection was in the central and southwestern U.S., and in Florida. Low probabilities of trend detection were associated with low ratios of mean annual runoff to the standard deviation of annual runoff and with high lag-1 serial correlation in the data.

conterminous United States↗

USGS2010

Relating large-scale climate variability to local species abundance: ENSO forcing and shrimp in Breton Sound, Louisiana, USA

Climate creates environmental constraints (filters) that affect the abundance and distribution of species. In estuaries, these constraints often result from variability in water flow properties and environmental conditions (i.e. water flow, salinity, water temperature) and can have significant effects on the abundance and distribution of commercially important nekton species. We investigated links between large-scale climate variability and juvenile brown shrimp Farfantepenaeus aztecus abundance in Breton Sound estuary, Louisiana (USA). Our goals were to (1) determine if a teleconnection exists between local juvenile brown shrimp abundance and the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and (2) relate that linkage to environmental constraints that may affect juvenile brown shrimp recruitment to, and survival in, the estuary. Our results identified a teleconnection between winter ENSO conditions and juvenile brown shrimp abundance in Breton Sound estuary the following spring. The physical connection results from the impact of ENSO on winter weather conditions in Breton Sound (air pressure, temperature, and precipitation). Juvenile brown shrimp abundance effects lagged ENSO by 3 mo: lower than average abundances of juvenile brown shrimp were caught in springs following winter El Niño events, and higher than average abundances of brown shrimp were caught in springs following La Niña winters. Salinity was the dominant ENSO-forced environmental filter for juvenile brown shrimp. Spring salinity was cumulatively forced by winter river discharge, winter wind forcing, and spring precipitation. Thus, predicting brown shrimp abundance requires incorporating climate variability into models.

Climate Research↗

USGS2011

Effects of temperature changes on maize production in Mozambique

We examined intraseasonal changes in maize phenology and heat stress exposure over the 1979-2008 period, using Mozambique meteorological station data and maize growth requirements in a growing degree-day model. Identifying historical effects of warming on maize growth is particularly important in Mozambique because national food security is highly dependent on domestic food production, most of which is grown in already warm to hot environments. Warming temperatures speed plant development, shortening the length of growth periods necessary for optimum plant and grain size. This faster phenological development also alters the timing of maximum plant water demand. In hot growing environments, temperature increases during maize pollination threaten to make midseason crop failure the norm. In addition to creating a harsher thermal environment, we find that early season temperature increases have caused the maize reproductive period to start earlier, increasing the risk of heat and water stress. Declines in time to maize maturation suggest that, independent of effects to water availability, yield potential is becoming increasingly limited by warming itself. Regional variations in effects are a function of the timing and magnitude of temperature increases and growing season characteristics. Continuation of current climatic trends could induce substantial yield losses in some locations. Farmers could avoid some losses through simple changes to planting dates and maize varietal types.

Climate Research↗

USGS2018

A 42 year inference of cloud base height trends in the Luquillo Mountains of northeastern Puerto Rico

The Luquillo Mountains of eastern Puerto Rico are home to the only tropical rainforest managed by the United States Forest Service, with cloud-immersed forests historically occupying the highest elevations. However, within the past 50 yr, studies of the Luquillo cloud forest have suggested an increase in cloud base heights (CBH), although the CBH in the area was not quantified until recently. The present work uses radiosonde observations from nearby San Juan, Puerto Rico, to contextualize the present-day CBH within a 42 yr (1975−2016) proxy record and determine evidence for rising cloud base. Two key questions are addressed: (1) Can theoretical CBH calculations from San Juan provide a reasonable proxy for CBHs in the Luquillo Mountains? (2) Does a significant trend accompany the CBH lifting inferred from recent work in the region? The mean-layer lifted condensation level (MLLCL), a thermodynamic parameter expressing the altitude at which a rising air parcel reaches 100% relative humidity, serves as the proxy. The 42 yr MLLCL time series corroborates both the low CBHs claimed in the 1980s and the higher CBHs documented by recent work. When considering all available radiosonde data, statistically significant increasing CBH trends are detected for all seasons. However, when the record is standardized to correct for progressive vertical resolution improvements to radiosonde observations, recent CBH increases are more modest than initially indicated, and statistically significant increases are only apparent in the late rainfall season.

Puerto Rico↗

USGS2002

Climate variability from the Florida Bay sedimentary record: Possible teleconnections to ENSO, PNA and CNP

We analyzed decadal and interannual climate variability in South Florida since 1880 using geochemical and faunal paleosalinity indicators from isotopically dated sediment cores at Russell Bank in Florida Bay (FB). Using the relative abundance of 2 ostracode species and the Mg/Ca ratios in Loxoconcha matagordensis shells to reconstruct paleosalinity, we found evidence for cyclic oscillations in the salinity of central FB. During this time salinity fluctuated from as low as ~18 parts per thousand (ppt) to as high as ~57 ppt. Time series analyses suggest, in addition to a 5.6 yr Mg/Ca based salinity periodicity, there are 3 other modes of variability in paleosalinity indicators: 6-7, 8-9, and 13-14 yr periods which occur in all paleo-proxies. To search for factors that might cause salinity to vary in FB, we compared the Russell Bank paleosalinity record to South Florida winter rainfall, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and the winter Pacific North American (PNA) index, and a surrogate for the PNA in the winter season, the Central North Pacific (CNP) index. SOI and PNA/CNP appear to be associated with South Florida winter precipitation. Time series analyses of SOI and winter rainfall for the period 1910-1999 suggest ~5, 6-7, 8-9 and 13-14 yr cycles. The 6-7 yr and 13-14 yr cycles correspond to those observed in the faunal and geochemical time series from Russell Bank. The main periods of the CNP index are 5-6 and 13-15 yr, which are similar to those observed in FB paleosalinity. Cross-spectral analyses show that winter rainfall and salinity are coherent at 5.6 yr with a salinity lag of ~1.6 mo. These results suggest that regional rainfall variability influences FB salinity over interannual and decadal timescales and that much of this variability may have its origin in climate variability in the Pacific Ocean/atmosphere system.

Climate Research↗

USGS2002

Trends and temperature sensitivity of moisture conditions in the conterminous United States

Observed (1895-1999) trends in climatic moisture conditions in the conterminous United States (US) characterized by (1) annual precipitation minus annual potential evapotranspiration (PMPE), (2) annual surplus (water that eventually becomes streamflow), and (3) annual deficit (the amount of water that must be supplied by irrigation to grow vegetation at an optimum rate) are examined. The sensitivity of moisture conditions across the conterminous US to increases in temperature also are examined. Results indicate that there have been statistically significant trends in PMPE, annual surplus, and annual deficit for some parts of the conterminous US. Most of the significant trends in PMPE have been increasing trends primarily in the eastern US. Annual surplus also has increased over the eastern US, whereas the magnitudes of annual deficit have decreased. For the conterminous US as a whole, there has been a statistically significant increase in PMPE and annual surplus; however, there is no significant trend in annual deficit. Results also indicate that PMPE and annual deficit in the warmest regions of the conterminous US are most sensitive to increase in temperature. The high sensitivity of PMPE and annual deficit in these regions to increases in temperature is related to the relation between temperature and the saturation vapor pressure of air. The increases in potential evapotranspiration for a given change in temperature are larger for high temperatures than for low temperatures. The regions with the highest sensitivity of annual surplus to increases in temperature are the humid regions of the country. In these regions, annual surplus is large and increased potential evapotranspiration, resulting from increased temperature, has a significant effect on reducing annual surplus. In the dry regions of the country, annual surplus is so low that increases in potential evapotranspiration only result in small decreases in annual surplus.

Climate Research↗

USGS2002

Effects of ENSO on weather-type frequencies and properties at New Orleans, Louisiana, USA

Examination of historical climate records indicates a significant relation between the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and seasonal temperature and precipitation in Louisiana. In this study, a 40 yr record of twice daily (06:00 and 15:00 h local time) weather types are used to study the effects of ENSO variability on the local climate at New Orleans, Louisiana. Tropical Pacific sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) for the NINO3.4 region are used to define ENSO events (i.e. El Nino and La Nina events), and daily precipitation and temperature data for New Orleans are used to define weather-type precipitation and temperature properties. Data for winters (December through February) 1962-2000 are analyzed. The 39 winters are divided into 3 categories; winters with NINO3.4 SST anomalies < -1degreesC (La Nina events), winters with NINO3.4 anomalies > 1degreesC (El Nino events), and neutral conditions (all other years). For each category, weather-type frequencies and properties (i.e. precipitation and temperature) are determined and analyzed. Results indicate that El Nino events primarily affect precipitation characteristics of weather types at New Orleans, whereas the effects of La Nina events are most apparent in weather-type frequencies. During El Nino events, precipitation for some of the weather types is greater than during neutral and La Nina conditions and is related to increased water vapor transport from the Tropics to the Gulf of Mexico. The changes in weather-type frequencies during La Nina events are indicative of a northward shift in storm tracks and/or a decrease in storm frequency in southern Louisiana.

Louisiana↗

USGS2004

VEMAP Phase 2 bioclimatic database. I. Gridded historical (20th century) climate for modeling ecosystem dynamics across the conterminous USA

Analysis and simulation of biospheric responses to historical forcing require surface climate data that capture those aspects of climate that control ecological processes, including key spatial gradients and modes of temporal variability. We developed a multivariate, gridded historical climate dataset for the conterminous USA as a common input database for the Vegetation/Ecosystem Modeling and Analysis Project (VEMAP), a biogeochemical and dynamic vegetation model intercomparison. The dataset covers the period 1895—1993 on a 0.5° latitude/longitude grid. Climate is represented at both monthly and daily timesteps. Variables are: precipitation, mininimum and maximum temperature, total incident solar radiation, daylight-period irradiance, vapor pressure, and daylight-period relative humidity. The dataset was derived from US Historical Climate Network (HCN), cooperative network, and snowpack telemetry (SNOTEL) monthly precipitation and mean minimum and maximum temperature station data. We employed techniques that rely on geostatistical and physical relationships to create the temporally and spatially complete dataset. We developed a local kriging prediction model to infill discontinuous and limited-length station records based on spatial autocorrelation structure of climate anomalies. A spatial interpolation model (PRISM) that accounts for physiographic controls was used to grid the infilled monthly station data. We implemented a stochastic weather generator (modified WGEN) to disaggregate the gridded monthly series to dailies. Radiation and humidity variables were estimated from the dailies using a physically-based empirical surface climate model (MTCLIM3). Derived datasets include a 100 yr model spin-up climate and a historical Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) dataset. The VEMAP dataset exhibits statistically significant trends in temperature, precipitation, solar radiation, vapor pressure, and PDSI for US National Assessment regions. The historical climate and companion datasets are available online at data archive centers.

Climate Research↗

USGS2011

The ANTOSTRAT legacy: Science collaboration and international transparency in potential marine mineral resource exploitation of Antarctica

The Antarctic Offshore Stratigraphy project (ANTOSTRAT; 1989–2002) was an extremely successful collaboration in international marine geological science that also lifted the perceived “veil of secrecy” from studies of potential exploitation of Antarctic marine mineral resources. The project laid the groundwork for circum-Antarctic seismic, drilling, and rock coring programs designed to decipher Antarctica’s tectonic, stratigraphic, and climate histories. In 2002, ANTOSTRAT evolved into the equally successful and currently active Antarctic Climate Evolution research program. The need for, and evolution of, ANTOSTRAT was based on two simple tenets within SCAR and the Antarctic Treaty: international science collaboration and open access to data. The ANTOSTRAT project may be a helpful analog for other regions of strong international science and geopolitical interests, such as the Arctic. This is the ANTOSTRAT story.

Book chapter↗

USGS2001

Recent growth of conifer species of western North America: Assessing spatial patterns of radial growth trends

We explored spatial patterns of low-frequency variability in radial tree growth among western North American conifer species and identified predictors of the variability in these patterns. Using 185 sites from the International Tree-Ring Data Bank, each of which contained 10a??60 raw ring-width series, we rebuilt two chronologies for each site, using two conservative methods designed to retain any low-frequency variability associated with recent environmental change. We used factor analysis to identify regional low-frequency patterns in site chronologies and estimated the slope of the growth trend since 1850 at each site from a combination of linear regression and time-series techniques. This slope was the response variable in a regression-tree model to predict the effects of environmental gradients and species-level differences on growth trends. Growth patterns at 27 sites from the American Southwest were consistent with quasi-periodic patterns of drought. Either 12 or 32 of the 185 sites demonstrated patterns of increasing growth between 1850 and 1980 A.D., depending on the standardization technique used. Pronounced growth increases were associated with high-elevation sites (above 3000 m) and high-latitude sites in maritime climates. Future research focused on these high-elevation and high-latitude sites should address the precise mechanisms responsible for increased 20th century growth.

Canadian Journal of Forest Research↗

USGS2023

Karst terrain promotes thermal resiliency in headwater streams

The response of stream ecosystems to climate change will depend in part on groundwater processes that reduce the sensitivity of streams to atmospheric conditions. We investigated the thermal sensitivity of streams across a gradient of groundwater inputs defined by karst terrain (carbonate parent materials) in the headwaters of the Potomac River basin in eastern North America. We collected stream temperature data and quantified thermal sensitivity for 30 sites from the relationship between daily mean water and air temperatures. Our analysis demonstrates that thermal sensitivity is lower for streams in karst terrain than elsewhere, and that the effect of karst terrain is more important than effects of elevation or basin size in this regard. Our study indicates the importance of karstic groundwater for stream thermal resiliency and suggests the importance of riparian vegetation for maintaining stream temperatures elsewhere. Our study also provides a simple and rapid method for climate change research that can be implemented in conjunction with watershed organizations and citizen science networks.

West Virginia↗

USGS2003

Preparing for climate change: The potential consequences of climate variability and change

Over the past decades, scientific research has greatly advanced the knowledge and understanding of global environmental change. Research supported by the U. S. Global Change Research Programme (USGCRP) and research and assessment results by international organizations such as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the World Climate Research Program (WCRP), and the International Geosphere and Biosphere Programme (IGBP) have demonstrated that human activities exert powerful environmental influences on global, regional, and local scales. Recent findings by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 1997) indicate that human activities are increasing the atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and other greenhouse gases such as nitrous oxide (NO x ), methane (CH 4 ), chlorofluorocarbons (CFCS), partially halogenated fluorocarbons, and ozone (O 3 ), which alter radiative balances, and tend to warm the Earth’s surface. These changes in greenhouse gases and aerosols constitute key factors in global and regional changes in temperature, precipitation, and other climate variables, resulting in local and regional changes in soil moisture, an increase in global mean sea level, and prospects for more severe extreme high temperature events, floods, and droughts in some places. In the United States and elsewhere in the industrialized world, energy use contributes to global warming more than any other human activity. This is because most of our energy comes from carbon-based fossil fuels (coal, oil, and natural gas). Fossil fuels provide energy for a variety of purposes, including transporting goods and people, manufacturing products, heating and cooling buildings, lighting spaces, and cooking foods. Each year U.S. energy use releases more than 5.5 billion tons of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. Present global CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere are 130% of pre-industrial levels (Figure 1). The global surface temperature last century is warmer than any other century in the past millennium. The global average temperature has increased by about 1 o F over the last century and is projected to rise another 2-6.5 o F by year 2100 (Figure 2). The last two decades have been the warmest last century. Average global sea level has risen about 4 to 10 inches in the last hundred years, and is projected to rise another 6-38 inches by year 2100. Mid- and low- latitude mountain glaciers have retreated world-wide last century. As greenhouse gases continue to accumulate in the atmosphere, it is expected that an increase in rainfall amount and consequent increase in river flooding will occur. Recent floods in the Gulf Coast areas (1993, 1997) are examples of such events, and perhaps indicate the high sensitivity of flood occurrence to changing climate. Because of its unique location adjacent to the Gulf of Mexico, the Gulf Coast region of the United States is particularly vulnerable to various environmental alterations resulting from climate change.

Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi,↗

USGS1999

Estimates of runoff using water-balance and atmospheric general circulation models

The effects of potential climate change on mean annual runoff in the conterminous United States (U.S.) are examined using a simple water-balance model and output from two atmospheric general circulation models (GCMs). The two GCMs are from the Canadian Centre for Climate Prediction and Analysis (CCC) and the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research (HAD). In general, the CCC GCM climate results in decreases in runoff for the conterminous U.S., and the HAD GCM climate produces increases in runoff. These estimated changes in runoff primarily are the result of estimated changes in precipitation. The changes in mean annual runoff, however, mostly are smaller than the decade-to-decade variability in GCM-based mean annual runoff and errors in GCM-based runoff. The differences in simulated runoff between the two GCMs, together with decade-to-decade variability and errors in GCM-based runoff, cause the estimates of changes in runoff to be uncertain and unreliable.

Conference Paper↗

USGS2006

Change in atmospheric mineral aerosols in response to climate: Last glacial period, preindustrial, modern, and doubled carbon dioxide climates

Desert dust simulations generated by the National Center for Atmospheric Research's Community Climate System Model for the current climate are shown to be consistent with present day satellite and deposition data. The response of the dust cycle to last glacial maximum, preindustrial, modern, and doubled-carbon dioxide climates is analyzed. Only natural (non-land use related) dust sources are included in this simulation. Similar to some previous studies, dust production mainly responds to changes in the source areas from vegetation changes, not from winds or soil moisture changes alone. This model simulates a +92%, +33%, and -60% change in dust loading for the last glacial maximum, preindustrial, and doubled-carbon dioxide climate, respectively, when impacts of carbon dioxide fertilization on vegetation are included in the model. Terrestrial sediment records from the last glacial maximum compiled here indicate a large underestimate of deposition in continental regions, probably due to the lack of simulation of glaciogenic dust sources. In order to include the glaciogenic dust sources as a first approximation, we designate the location of these sources, and infer the size of the sources using an inversion method that best matches the available data. The inclusion of these inferred glaciogenic dust sources increases our dust flux in the last glacial maximum from 2.1 to 3.3 times current deposition. Copyright 2006 by the American Geophysical Union.

Journal of Geophysical Research D: Atmospheres↗

USGS2020

Using value of information to prioritize research needs for migratory bird management under climate change: A case study using federal land acquisition in the United States

In response to global habitat loss, many governmental and non‐governmental organizations have implemented land acquisition programs to protect critical habitats permanently for priority species. The ability of these protected areas to meet future management objectives may be compromised if the effects of climate change are not considered in acquisition decisions. Unfortunately, the effects of climate change on ecological systems are complex and plagued by uncertainty, making it difficult for organizations to prioritize research needs to improve decision‐making. Herein, we demonstrate the use of qualitative value of information analysis to identify and prioritize which sources of uncertainty should be reduced to improve land acquisition decisions to protect migratory birds in the face of climate change. The qualitative value of information analysis process involves four steps: ( i ) articulating alternative hypotheses; ( ii ) determining the magnitude of uncertainty regarding each hypothesis; ( iii ) evaluating the relevance of each hypothesis to acquisition decision‐making; and ( iv ) assessing the feasibility of reducing the uncertainty surrounding each hypothesis through research and monitoring. We demonstrate this approach using the objectives of 3 U.S. federal land acquisition programs that focus on migratory bird management. We used a comprehensive literature review, expert elicitation, and professional judgement to evaluate 11 hypotheses about the effect of climate change on migratory birds. Based on our results, we provide a list of priorities for future research and monitoring to reduce uncertainty and improve land acquisition decisions for the programs considered in our case study. Reducing uncertainty about how climate change will influence the spatial distribution of priority species and biotic homogenization were identified as the highest priorities for future research due to both the value of this information for improving land acquisition decisions and the feasibility of reducing uncertainty through research and monitoring. Research on how changes in precipitation patterns and winter severity will influence migratory bird abundance is also expected to benefit land acquisition decisions. By contrast, hypotheses about phenology and migration distance were identified as low priorities for research. By providing a rigorous and transparent approach to prioritizing research, we demonstrate that qualitative value of information is a valuable tool for prioritizing research and improving management decisions in other complex, high‐uncertainty cases where traditional quantitative value of information analysis is not possible. Given the inherent complexity of ecological systems under climate change, and the difficulty of identifying management‐relevant research priorities, we expect this approach to have wide applications within the field of natural resource management.

Biological Reviews↗

USGS2025

Prioritization of research on drought assessment in a changing climate

Drought is a period of abnormally dry weather that leads to hydrological imbalance. Drought assessments determine the characteristics, severity, and impacts of a drought. Climate change adds conceptual and quantitative challenges to traditional drought assessments. This paper highlights the challenges of assessing drought in a climate made non-stationary by human activities or natural variability. To address these challenges, we then identify 10 key research priorities for advancing drought science and improving assessments in a changing climate. The priorities focus on improving drought indicators to account for non-stationarity, evaluating drought impacts and their trends, addressing regional differences in non-stationarity, determining the physical drivers of drought and how they are changing, capturing precipitation variability, and understanding the drivers of aridification. Ultimately, improved drought assessments will inform better risk management, adaptation strategies, and planning, especially in areas where climate change significantly alters drought dynamics. This perspective offers a path toward more accurate and effective drought management in a non-stationary climate system.

Earth's Future↗

USGS2016

Identifying alternate pathways for climate change to impact inland recreational fishers

Fisheries and human dimensions literature suggests that climate change influences inland recreational fishers in North America through three major pathways. The most widely recognized pathway suggests that climate change impacts habitat and fish populations (e.g., water temperature impacting fish survival) and cascades to impact fishers. Climate change also impacts recreational fishers by influencing environmental conditions that directly affect fishers (e.g., increased temperatures in northern climates resulting in extended open water fishing seasons and increased fishing effort). The final pathway occurs from climate change mitigation and adaptation efforts (e.g., refined energy policies result in higher fuel costs, making distant trips more expensive). To address limitations of past research (e.g., assessing climate change impacts for only one pathway at a time and not accounting for climate variability, extreme weather events, or heterogeneity among fishers), we encourage researchers to refocus their efforts to understand and document climate change impacts to inland fishers.

Fisheries↗