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Seasonality of biological and physical systems as indicators of climatic variation and change

Evidence-based responses to climate change by society require operational and sustained information including biophysical indicator systems that provide up-to-date measures of trends and patterns against historical baselines. Two key components linking anthropogenic climate change to impacts on socio-ecological systems are the periodic inter- and intra-annual variations in physical climate systems (seasonality) and in plant and animal life cycles (phenology). We describe a set of national indicators that reflect sub-seasonal to seasonal drivers and responses of terrestrial physical and biological systems to climate change and variability at the national scale. Proposed indicators and metrics include seasonality of surface climate conditions (e.g., frost and freeze dates and durations), seasonality of freeze/thaw in freshwater systems (e.g., timing of stream runoff and durations of lake/river ice), seasonality in ecosystem disturbances (e.g., wildfire season timing and duration), seasonality in vegetated land surfaces (e.g., green-up and brown-down of landscapes), and seasonality of organismal life-history stages (e.g., timings of bird migration). Recommended indicators have strong linkages to variable and changing climates, include abiotic and biotic responses and feedback mechanisms, and are sufficiently simple to facilitate communication to broad audiences and stakeholders interested in understanding and adapting to climate change.

Climatic Change↗

The ACER pollen and charcoal database: A global resource to document vegetation and fire response to abrupt climate changes during the last glacial period

Quaternary records provide an opportunity to examine the nature of the vegetation and fire responses to rapid past climate changes comparable in velocity and magnitude to those expected in the 21st century. The best documented examples of rapid climate change in the past are the warming events associated with the Dansgaard-Oeschger (D-O) cycles during the last glacial period, which were sufficiently large to have had a potential feedback through changes in albedo and greenhouse gas emissions on climate. Previous reconstructions of vegetation and fire changes during the D-O cycles used independently constructed age models, making it difficult to compare the changes between different sites and regions. Here we present the ACER (Abrupt Climate Changes and Environmental Responses) global database which includes 93 pollen records from the last glacial period (73–15 ka) with a temporal resolution better than 1,000 years, 32 of which also provide charcoal records. A harmonized and consistent chronology based on radiometric dating (¹⁴C, ²³⁴U/²³⁰Th, OSL, ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar dated tephra layers) has been constructed for 86 of these records, although in some cases additional information was derived using common control points based on event stratigraphy. The ACER database compiles metadata including geospatial and dating information, pollen and charcoal counts and pollen percentages of the characteristic biomes, and is archived in Microsoft AccessTM at doi:10.1594/PANGAEA.870867.

Earth System Science Data↗

Changing amounts and sources of moisture in the U.S. southwest since the Last Glacial Maximum in response to global climate change

The U.S. southwest has a limited water supply and is predicted to become drier in the 21st century. An improved understanding of factors controlling moisture sources and availability is aided by reconstruction of past responses to global climate change. New stable isotope and growth-rate records for a central Texas speleothem indicate a strong influence of Gulf of Mexico (GoM) moisture and increased precipitation from 15.5 to 13.5 ka, which includes the majority of the Bølling–Allerød warming (BA: 14.7–12.9 ka). Coeval speleothem records from 900 and 1200 km to the west allow reconstruction of regional moisture sources and atmospheric circulation. The combined isotope and growth-rate time series indicates 1) increased GoM moisture input during the majority of the BA, producing greater precipitation in Texas and New Mexico; and 2) a retreat of GoM moisture during Younger Dryas cooling (12.9–11.5 ka), reducing precipitation. These results portray how late-Pleistocene atmospheric circulation and moisture distribution in this region responded to global changes, providing information to improve models of future climate.

Texas↗

Behavioral flexibility as a mechanism for coping with climate change

Of the primary responses to contemporary climate change – “move, adapt, acclimate, or die” – that are available to organisms, “acclimate” may be effectively achieved through behavioral modification. Behavioral flexibility allows animals to rapidly cope with changing environmental conditions, and behavior represents an important component of a species’ adaptive capacity in the face of climate change. However, there is currently a lack of knowledge about the limits or constraints on behavioral responses to changing conditions. Here, we characterize the contexts in which organisms respond to climate variability through behavior. First, we quantify patterns in behavioral responses across taxa with respect to timescales, climatic stimuli, life-history traits, and ecology. Next, we identify existing knowledge gaps, research biases, and other challenges. Finally, we discuss how conservation practitioners and resource managers can incorporate an improved understanding of behavioral flexibility into natural resource management and policy decisions.

Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment↗

A regional synthesis of climate data to inform the 2025 State Wildlife Action Plans in the Northeast U.S.

The State Wildlife Action Plans (SWAPs) are proactive planning documents, known as “comprehensive wildlife conservation strategies,” that assess the health of each state’s wildlife and habitats, identify current management and conservation challenges, and outline needed actions to conserve natural resources over the long term. SWAPs are revised every 10 years, with the last revision in 2015 and the next revision anticipated in 2025. State managers have a long history of managing for threats such as land-use change, pollution, and harvest. However, they have expressed a lack of expertise and capacity to keep pace with the rapid advances in climate science and noted that much of the information available is not scaled to meet their needs; thus making the prospect of integrating climate information into SWAPs a daunting task. (Johnson, 2018; Yocum et al., 2021; Blandford, 2022). This report, led by the Northeast Climate Adaptation Science Center (NE CASC), directly addresses SWAP climate science data needs through a Northeast regional synthesis across four key areas of climate science: 1) observed and projected climate changes, 2) species responses to climate change, 3) climate vulnerabilities and risks, and 4) scale-specific adaptation strategies and actions. In addition, case studies of climate adaptation efforts and climate threat to-action narratives provide illustrative examples of how climate change frameworks and tools are being operationalized in decision-making processes related to Regional Species of Greatest Conservation Need (RSGCN) and their habitats across the region. Lists of recent climate resources were also synthesized into extensive data tables to provide SWAP writing teams with a comprehensive platform of information to support content development (AFWA 2022).

Connecticut, Delaware, Maine, Maryland, Massachuse↗

Projected changes of regional lake hydrologic characteristics in response to 21st century climate change

Inland lakes are socially and ecologically important components of many regional landscapes. Exploring lake responses to plausible future climate scenarios can provide important information needed to inform stakeholders of likely effects of hydrologic changes on these waterbodies in coming decades. To assess potential climate effects on lake hydrology, we combined a previously published spatially explicit, processed-based hydrologic modeling framework implemented over the lake-rich landscape of the Northern Highlands Lake District within the United States with an ensemble of climate change scenarios for the 2050s (2041–2070) and 2080s (2071–2100). Model results quantify the effects of climate change on water budgets and lake stage elevations for 3692 lakes and highlight the importance of landscape and hydrologic setting for the response of specific lake types to climate change. All future climate projections resulted in loss of ice cover and snowpack as well as increased evaporation, but variability in climate projections (warmer conditions, wet winters combined with wet or dry summers) interacted with lake characteristics and landscape position to produce variable lake hydrologic changes. Water levels for drainage lakes (lakes with substantial surface water inflows and outflows) showed nearly no change, whereas minimum water levels for seepage lakes (minimal surface water fluxes) decreased by an average of up to 2.64 m by the end of the 21st century. Our physically based modeling approach is parsimonious and computationally efficient and can be applied to other lake-rich regions to investigate interregional variability in lake hydrologic response to future climate scenarios.

Michigan, Wisconsin↗

Development of the Wildlife Adaptation Menu for Resource Managers

The Climate Change Response Framework is an example of a collaborative, cross-boundary approach to create a set of tools, partnerships, and actions to support climate-informed conservation and land management. Historically, this effort has focused on the needs of forest managers and forestry professionals. In recent years, however, there has been increasing demand for science and tools to address climate change adaptation in wildlife management and conservation. Not only do wildlife and resource managers need the best available science, it must also be presented in a usable format with feasible options within the purview of an individual manager. The research team is first completing a comprehensive review of peer-reviewed studies to summarize what wildlife-related management actions currently exist in climate change adaptation. They will then develop and test a “menu” of climate change adaptation actions that are suitable for wildlife management in terrestrial ecosystems. This Wildlife Adaptation Menu will be modeled off existing adaptation menus for Forestry and Urban Forestry, and it will be designed to be used in conjunction with the Adaptation Workbook . In addition to a menu of adaption strategies and approaches, the scientists will also identify site-level tactics and develop case studies demonstrating the use and implementation of the menu. To ensure that information and tools meet the needs of managers, the team is involving and integrating input from wildlife managers at every step of the process. Managers will be involved in scoping the project, testing the menu, and implementing the menu.

Final Report↗

Pollinators in peril? A multipark approach to evaluating bee communities in habitats vulnerable to effects from climate change

In 2010, collaborators from the National Park Service (Ann Rodman, Yellowstone National Park), USGS (Sam Droege and Ralph Grundel), and Harvard University (Jessica Rykken) were awarded funding from the NPS Climate Change Response Program to launch just such an investigation in almost 50 units of the National Park System (fig. 1). The main objectives of this multiyear project were to: Compare bee communities in three “vulnerable” habitats (high elevation, inland arid, coastal) and paired “common” habitats, representative of the landscape matrix, in order to determine whether vulnerable habitats have a distinctive bee fauna that may be at higher risk under climate change scenarios. Inform natural resource managers at each park about the bee fauna at their paired sites, including the presence of rare and endemic species, and make suggestions for active management strategies to promote native bee habitat if warranted. Increase awareness among park natural resource staffs, interpreters, and visitors of native bee diversity and natural history, the essential role of bees in maintaining healthy ecosystems, and potential threats from climate change to pollinator-dependent ecosystems.

Park Science↗

Streamflow changes in the Sierra Nevada, California, simulated using a statistically downscaled general circulation model scenario of climate change

Simulations of future climate using general circulation models (GCMs) suggest that rising concentrations of greenhouse gases may have significant consequences for the global climate. Of less certainty is the extent to which regional scale (i.e., sub-GCM grid) environmental processes will be affected. In this chapter, a range of downscaling techniques are critiqued. Then a relatively simple (yet robust) statistical downscaling technique and its use in the modelling of future runoff scenarios for three river basins in the Sierra Nevada, California, is described. This region was selected because GCM experiments driven by combined greenhouse-gas and sulphate-aerosol forcings consistently show major changes in the hydro-climate of the southwest United States by the end of the 21st century. The regression-based downscaling method was used to simulate daily rainfall and temperature series for streamflow modelling in three Californian river basins under current-and future-climate conditions. The downscaling involved just three predictor variables (specific humidity, zonal velocity component of airflow, and 500 hPa geopotential heights) supplied by the U.K. Meteorological Office couple ocean-atmosphere model (HadCM2) for the grid point nearest the target basins. When evaluated using independent data, the model showed reasonable skill at reproducing observed area-average precipitation, temperature, and concomitant streamflow variations. Overall, the downscaled data resulted in slight underestimates of mean annual streamflow due to underestimates of precipitation in spring and positive temperature biases in winter. Differences in the skill of simulated streamflows amongst the three basins were attributed to the smoothing effects of snowpack on streamflow responses to climate forcing. The Merced and American River basins drain the western, windward slope of the Sierra Nevada and are snowmelt dominated, whereas the Carson River drains the eastern, leeward slope and is a mix of rainfall runoff and snowmelt runoff. Simulated streamflow in the American River responds rapidly and sensitively to daily-scale temperature and precipitation fluctuations and errors; in the Merced and Carson Rivers, the response to the same short-term influences is much less. Consequently, the skill of simulated flows was significantly lower in the American River model than in the Carson and Merced. The physiography of the three basins also accounts for differences in their sensitivities to future climate change. Increases in winter precipitation exceeding +100% coupled with mean temperature rises greater than +2°C result in increased winter streamflows in all three basins. In the Merced and Carson basins, these streamflow increases reflect large changes in winter snowpack, whereas the streamflow changes in the lower elevation American basin are driven primarily by rainfall runoff. Furthermore, reductions in winter snowpack in the American River basin, owing to less precipitation falling as snow and earlier melting of snow at middle elevations, lead to less spring and summer streamflow. Taken collectively, the downscaling results suggest significant changes to both the timing and magnitude of streamflows in the Sierra Nevada by the end of the 21st Century. In the higher elevation basins, the HadCM2 scenario implies more annual streamflow and more streamflow during the spring and summer months that are critical for water-resources management in California. Depending on the relative significance of rainfall runoff and snowmelt, each basin responds in its own way to regional climate forcing. Generally, then, climate scenarios need to be specified — by whatever means — with sufficient temporal and spatial resolution to capture subtle orographic influences if projections of climate-change responses are to be useful and reproducible.

California↗

Shallow marine response to global climate change during the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum, Salisbury Embayment, USA

The Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) was an interval of extreme warmth that caused disruption of marine and terrestrial ecosystems on a global scale. Here we examine the sediments, flora, and fauna from an expanded section at Mattawoman Creek-Billingsley Road (MCBR) in Maryland and explore the impact of warming at a nearshore shallow marine (30–100 m water depth) site in the Salisbury Embayment. Observations indicate that at the onset of the PETM, the site abruptly shifted from an open marine to prodelta setting with increased terrestrial and fresh water input. Changes in microfossil biota suggest stratification of the water column and low-oxygen bottom water conditions in the earliest Eocene. Formation of authigenic carbonate through microbial diagenesis produced an unusually large bulk carbon isotope shift, while the magnitude of the corresponding signal from benthic foraminifera is similar to that at other marine sites. This proves that the landward increase in the magnitude of the carbon isotope excursion measured in bulk sediment is not due to a near instantaneous release of 12 C-enriched CO 2 . We conclude that the MCBR site records nearshore marine response to global climate change that can be used as an analog for modern coastal response to global warming.

Maryland, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Virginia↗

Adaptive capacity of freshwater organisms in North America: Current understanding and future applications

Freshwater species are increasingly threatened by climate change, yet our ability to assess their vulnerability remains incomplete. Typically, climate change vulnerability assessments (CCVAs) evaluate three components: exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. Adaptive capacity, defined as the ability of a species to adjust to changing conditions, provides critical insight into how species may persist under future scenarios and can strengthen conservation planning by highlighting opportunities for resilience and targeted management strategies. Trait-based approaches offer a promising path for managers to operationalize adaptive capacity by identifying measurable biological and ecological traits that influence climate change response strategies. However, these insights are rarely integrated into broader vulnerability frameworks that support conservation decision making. We build on previous research to synthesize current understanding of adaptive capacity for three freshwater taxa in North America: fishes, mussels, and crayfishes. Our objectives were to: (1) assess the relevance of adaptive capacity factors for fishes, mussels, and crayfishes; (2) identify key opportunities and gaps in linking trait-based information into adaptive capacity assessments; and (3) illustrate how incorporating adaptive capacity can enhance management decisions for freshwater species under climate change. We used an expert workshop, literature review, and case studies to identify relevant adaptive capacity factors, assess available information, and evaluate inclusion in management contexts. We found that all three taxa had sufficient information to inform adaptive capacity assessments. In addition to existing adaptive capacity factors, we identified Morphology as an important yet underutilized cross-cutting diagnostic category when information was limited. By explicitly linking trait-based approaches with adaptive capacity frameworks, we offer practical guidance for improving climate adaptation strategies and prioritizing management actions for freshwater biodiversity under accelerating global change.

Global Change Biology Communications↗

Do competitors modulate rare plant response to precipitation change?

Ecologists increasingly suspect that climate change will directly impact species physiology, demography, and phenology, but also indirectly affect these measures via changes to the surrounding community. Unfortunately, few studies examine both the direct and indirect pathways of impact. Doing so is important because altered competitive pressures can reduce or magnify the direct responses of a focal species to climate change. Here, we examine the effects of changing rainfall on three rare annual plant species in the presence and absence of competition on the California Channel Islands. We used rain-out shelters and hand watering to exclude and augment early, late, and season-long rainfall, spanning the wide range of precipitation change forecast for the region. In the absence of competition, droughts reduced the population growth rates of two of three focal annuals, while increased rainfall was only sometimes beneficial, As compared to the focal species, the dominant competitors were more sensitive to the precipitation treatments, benefiting from increased season-long precipitation and harmed by droughts. Importantly, the response of two of three competitors to the precipitation treatments tended to be positively correlated with those of the focal annuals. Although this leads to the expectation that increased competition will counter the direct benefits of favorable conditions, such indirect effects of precipitation change proved weak to nonexistent in our experiment. Competitors had little influence on the precipitation response of two focal species, due to their low sensitivity to competition and highly variable precipitation responses. Competition did affect how our third focal species responded to precipitation change, but this effect only approached significance, and whether it truly resulted from competitor response to precipitation change was unclear. Our work suggests that even when competitors respond to climate change, these responses may have little effect on the focal species. Ultimately, the strength of the indirect effect depends on how strongly climate change alters competition, and how sensitive focal species are to changes in competition. ?? 2010 by the Ecological Society of America.

Ecology↗

Global methane emissions from rivers and streams

Methane (CH 4 ) is a potent greenhouse gas and its concentrations have tripled in the atmosphere since the industrial revolution. There is evidence that global warming has increased CH 4 emissions from freshwater ecosystems 1 , 2 , providing positive feedback to the global climate. Yet for rivers and streams, the controls and the magnitude of CH 4 emissions remain highly uncertain 3 , 4 . Here we report a spatially explicit global estimate of CH 4 emissions from running waters, accounting for 27.9 (16.7–39.7) Tg CH 4 per year and roughly equal in magnitude to those of other freshwater systems 5 , 6 . Riverine CH 4 emissions are not strongly temperature dependent, with low average activation energy ( E M = 0.14 eV) compared with that of lakes and wetlands ( E M = 0.96 eV) 1 . By contrast, global patterns of emissions are characterized by large fluxes in high- and low-latitude settings as well as in human-dominated environments. These patterns are explained by edaphic and climate features that are linked to anoxia in and near fluvial habitats, including a high supply of organic matter and water saturation in hydrologically connected soils. Our results highlight the importance of land–water connections in regulating CH 4 supply to running waters, which is vulnerable not only to direct human modifications but also to several climate change responses on land.

Nature↗

Decision analysis to advance environmental sustainability

Decision analysis provides a robust framework for complex decisions related to environmental sustainability and conservation, including for energy and water, fisheries and wildlife management, agriculture, and climate change response. The complexities of these problems stem from their large scope and scale, which leads to multiple decision makers, stakeholders, rightsholders, and other entities with potentially competing objectives. These problems often are time limited (e.g., urgent action is required to prevent species’ extinction), involve management interventions over long time scales and delayed responses to management (deep uncertainty), and are impeded by limited resources (funding, capacity, etc.). In this Special Issue on “Decision Analysis to Advance Environmental Sustainability,” we present five case studies of applications of decision analysis to complex problems in environmental sustainability and conservation. These case studies incorporate multiple objectives related to ecological and environmental sustainability, economic and social concerns, and logistics of implementation. They showcase a wide range of tools and applications to these problems. We also provide suggestions for new avenues of research and application of decision analysis to problems of environmental sustainability and conservation, including how to incorporate other decision-making tools into decision analysis processes, how to broaden the reach of decision analysis to other sustainability problems, how to incorporate more stakeholders and rightsholders into the decision process, the potential to incorporate new technology into these processes, identifying more creative alternatives, how to secure more funding, ways to move from decision to action, and how to move beyond status quo to make big transitions necessary to achieve sustainability.

Decision Analysis↗

Scientific developments ISFD3

Highlights, trends, and consensus from the 63 papers submitted to the Scientific Developments theme of the Third International Symposium on Flood Defence (ISFD) are presented. Realizing that absolute protection against flooding can never be guaranteed, trends in flood management have shifted: (1) from flood protection to flood-risk management, (2) from reinforcing structural protection to lowering flood levels, and (3) to sustainable management through integrated problem solving. Improved understanding of watershed responses, climate changes, applications of GIS and remote-sensing technologies, and advanced analytical tools appeared to be the driving forces for renewing flood-risk management strategies. Technical competence in integrating analytical tools to form the basin wide management systems are demonstrated by several large, transnation models. However, analyses from social-economic-environmental points of view are found lag in general. ?? 2006 Taylor & Francis Group.

Conference Paper↗

Migratory behavior and winter geography drive differential range shifts of eastern birds in response to recent climate change

Over the past half century, migratory birds in North America have shown divergent population trends relative to resident species, with the former declining rapidly and the latter increasing. The role that climate change has played in these observed trends is not well understood, despite significant warming over this period. We used 43 y of monitoring data to fit dynamic species distribution models and quantify the rate of latitudinal range shifts in 32 species of birds native to eastern North America. Since the early 1970s, species that remain in North America throughout the year, including both resident and migratory species, appear to have responded to climate change through both colonization of suitable area at the northern leading edge of their breeding distributions and adaption in place at the southern trailing edges. Neotropical migrants, in contrast, have shown the opposite pattern: contraction at their southern trailing edges and no measurable shifts in their northern leading edges. As a result, the latitudinal distributions of temperate-wintering species have increased while the latitudinal distributions of neotropical migrants have decreased. These results raise important questions about the mechanisms that determine range boundaries of neotropical migrants and suggest that these species may be particularly vulnerable to future climate change. Our results highlight the potential importance of climate change during the nonbreeding season in constraining the response of migratory species to temperature changes at both the trailing and leading edges of their breeding distributions. Future research on the interactions between breeding and nonbreeding climate change is urgently needed.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of↗

Decadal-timescale estuarine geomorphic change under future scenarios of climate and sediment supply

Future estuarine geomorphic change, in response to climate change, sea-level rise, and watershed sediment supply, may govern ecological function, navigation, and water quality. We estimated geomorphic changes in Suisun Bay, CA, under four scenarios using a tidal-timescale hydrodynamic/sediment transport model. Computational expense and data needs were reduced using the morphological hydrograph concept and the morphological acceleration factor. The four scenarios included (1) present-day conditions; (2) sea-level rise and freshwater flow changes of 2030; (3) sea-level rise and decreased watershed sediment supply of 2030; and (4) sea-level rise, freshwater flow changes, and decreased watershed sediment supply of 2030. Sea-level rise increased water levels thereby reducing wave-induced bottom shear stress and sediment redistribution during the wind-wave season. Decreased watershed sediment supply reduced net deposition within the estuary, while minor changes in freshwater flow timing and magnitude induced the smallest overall effect. In all future scenarios, net deposition in the entire estuary and in the shallowest areas did not keep pace with sea-level rise, suggesting that intertidal and wetland areas may struggle to maintain elevation. Tidal-timescale simulations using future conditions were also used to infer changes in optical depth: though sea-level rise acts to decrease mean light irradiance, decreased suspended-sediment concentrations increase irradiance, yielding small changes in optical depth. The modeling results also assisted with the development of a dimensionless estuarine geomorphic number representing the ratio of potential sediment import forces to sediment export forces; we found the number to be linearly related to relative geomorphic change in Suisun Bay. The methods implemented here are widely applicable to evaluating future scenarios of estuarine change over decadal timescales. ?? The Author(s) 2009.

Estuaries and Coasts↗

Limited hydrologic response to Pleistocene climate change in deep vadose zones - Yucca Mountain, Nevada

Understanding the movement of water through thick vadose zones, especially on time scales encompassing long-term climate change, is increasingly important as societies utilize semi-arid environments for both water resources and sites viewed as favorable for long-term disposal or storage of hazardous waste. Hydrologic responses to Pleistocene climate change within a deep vadose zone in the eastern Mojave Desert at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, were evaluated by uranium-series dating of finely layered hyalitic opal using secondary ion mass spectrometry. Opal is present within cm-thick secondary hydrogenic mineral crusts coating floors of lithophysal cavities in fractured volcanic rocks at depths of 200 to 300 m below land surface. Uranium concentrations in opal fluctuate systematically between 5 and 550 μg/g. Age-calibrated profiles of uranium concentration correlate with regional climate records over the last 300,000 years and produce time-series spectral peaks that have distinct periodicities of 100- and 41-ka, consistent with planetary orbital parameters. These results indicate that the chemical compositions of percolating solutions varied in response to near-surface, climate-driven processes. However, slow (micrometers per thousand years), relatively uniform growth rates of secondary opal and calcite deposition spanning several glacial–interglacial climate cycles imply that water fluxes in the deep vadose zone remained low and generally buffered from the large fluctuations in available surface moisture during different climates.

Nevada↗