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Northern bobwhite response to habitat restoration in eastern oklahoma

In response to the decline of northern bobwhite ( Colinus virginianus ; hereafter, bobwhite) in eastern Oklahoma, USA, a cost-share incentive program for private landowners was initiated to restore early successional habitat. Our objectives were to determine whether the program had an effect on bobwhite occupancy in the restoration areas and evaluate how local-and landscape-level habitat characteristics affect occupancy in both restoration and control areas. We surveyed 14 sample units that received treatment between 2009 and 2011, and 17 sample units that were controls. We used single-season occupancy models, with year as a dummy variable, to test for an effect of restoration treatment and habitat variables on occupancy. We found no significant treatment effect. Model selection showed that occupancy was best explained by the combination of overstory canopy cover and habitat area at both the local and landscape scales. Moran's I revealed positive spatial autocorrelation in the 1,000-3,000-m distance band, indicating that the likelihood of bobwhite occupancy increased with proximity to other populations. We show that creating ≥ 20 ha of habitat within 1-3 km of existing bobwhite populations increases the chance of restoration being successful.

Wildlife Society Bulletin

Circum-Pacific seismic potential: 1989-1999

The seismic potential for 96 segments of simple plate boundaries around the circum-Pacific region is presented in terms of the conditional probability for the occurrence of either large or great interplate earthquakes during the next 5, 10, and 20 years (i.e., 1989-1994, 1989-1999 and 1989-2009). This study represents the first probabilistic summary of seismic potential on this scale, and involves the comparison of plate boundary segments that exhibit varying recurrence times, magnitudes, and tectonic regimes. Presenting these data in a probabilistic framework provides a basis for the uniform comparison of seismic hazard between these differing fault segments, as well as accounting for individual variations in recurrence time along a specific fault segment, and uncertainties in the determination of the average recurrence time. The definition of specific segments along simple plate boundaries relies on the mapping of earthquake rupture zones as defined by the aftershock distributions of prior large and great earthquakes, and historic descriptions of felt intensities and damage areas. The 96 segments are chosen to represent areas likely to be ruptured by "characteristic" earthquakes of a specified size or magnitude. The term characteristic implies repeated breakage of a plate boundary segment by large or great earthquakes whose source dimensions are similar from cycle to cycle. This definition does not exclude the possibility that occasionally adjacent characteristic earthquake segments may break together in a single, larger event. Conversely, a segment may also break in a series of smaller ruptures. Estimates of recurrence times and conditional probabilities for characteristic earthquakes along segments of simple plate boundaries are based on 1) the historic and instrumental record of large and great earthquake occurrence; 2) paleoseismic evidence of recurrence from radiometric dating of Holocene features produced by earthquakes; 3) direct calculations of recurrence time from the size of the most recent characteristic event and the long-term rates of plate motion assuming the validity of the time-predictable model for earthquake recurrence; and 4) the application of a lognormal distribution for the recurrence times of large and great earthquakes. Time-dependent estimates of seismic potential are based on a physical model of earthquake occurrence which assumes that the probability for an earthquake is low immediately following the occurrence of a characteristic earthquake and increases with time as the stress on the fault segment recovers the stress drop of the event. This study updates earlier work on seismic gaps by explicitly including both recurrence time information and the temporal proximity to the next event as factors in describing earthquake hazards. Currently, 11 out of 96 regions have a high (i.e., ???50%) probability of recurrence during the next 10 years and are characterized by either fairly short (i.e., less than 30-40 years) recurrence times or long elapsed times relative to the average recurrence time. The majority of these segments are located in the southwest Pacific (Vanuatu, New Guinea, and Tonga). When a longer time window is considered (e.g., 20 years or 1989-2009), 30 out of 96 regions have a high potential. Many of these regions are located near areas of high population density. These determinations do not preclude rupture of other fault segments, with less than a 50% chance in 10 or 20 years, or large and great earthquakes in areas we have not studied in detail. While this study has summarized the seismic potential for a large number of regions around the circum-Pacific, there are still a number of geographic and seismotectonic regions that need to be considered, including Indonesia, the Philippines, New Zealand, and the countries that surround the Caribbean basin. ?? 1991 Birkha??user Verlag.

Pure and Applied Geophysics PAGEOPH

Physical deposit measures and commercial potential: The case of titanium-bearing heavy-mineral deposits

Physical measures of mineral deposit characteristics, such as grade and tonnage, long have been used in both subjective and analytic models to predict favorability of areas for the occurrence of mineral deposits of particular types. After a deposit has been identified, however, the explorationist must decide whether to continue data collection, begin an economic feasibility study, or abandon the prospect. The decision maker can estimate the probability that a deposit will be commercial by examining physical measures. The amount of sampling data required before such a probability estimate can be considered reliable can be determined. A logit probability model estimated from onshore titanium-bearing heavy-mineral deposit data identifies and quantifies the relative influence of a deposit's physical measures on the chances of the deposit becoming commercial. A principal conclusion that can be drawn from the analysis is that, along with a measure of deposit size, the characteristics most important in predicting commercial potential are grades of the constituent minerals. Total heavy-mineral-bearing sand grade or even total titanium grade (without data on constituent mineral grades) are poor predictors of the deposit's commercial potential. ?? 1988 International Association for Mathematical Geology.

Mathematical Geology

Indopithecus giganteus distinct from Sivapithecus indicus

The very large Eurasian Miocene ape Indopithecus giganteus is distinct from contemporanious Sivapithecus (non-Dryopithecus)indicus. The probabilities that length and width for the only specimen of I. giganteus could be sampled from populations similar or identical to those of S. indicus are less than six chances in 100,000 for both parameters. ?? 1980 Japan Monkey Centre.

Primates

A downstream voyage with mercury

Retrospective essay for the Bulletin of Environmental Contamination and Toxicology. As I look back on my paper, “Effects of Low Dietary Levels of Methyl Mercury on Mallard Reproduction,” published in 1974 in the Bulletin of Environmental Contamination and Toxicology, a thought sticks in my mind. I realize just how much my mercury research was not unlike a leaf in a stream, carried this way and that, sometimes stalled in an eddy, restarted, and carried downstream at a pace and path that was not completely under my control. I was hired in 1969 by the Patuxent Wildlife Research Center to study the effects of environmental pollutants on the behavior of wildlife. A colleague was conducting a study on the reproductive effects of methylmercury on mallards ( Anas platyrhynchos ), and he offered to give me some of the ducklings. I conducted a pilot study, testing how readily ducklings approached a tape-recorded maternal call. Sample sizes were small, but the results suggested that ducklings from mercury-treated parents behaved differently than controls. That’s how I got into mercury research—pretty much by chance.

Bulletin of Environmental Contamination and Toxico

Evaluation of a method using survey counts and tag data to estimate the number of Pacific walruses ( Odobenus rosmarus divergens ) using a coastal haulout in northwestern Alaska

Increased periods of sparse sea ice over the continental shelf of the Chukchi Sea in late summer have reduced offshore haulout habitat for Pacific walruses ( Odobenus rosmarus divergens ) and increased opportunities for human activities in the region. Knowing how many walruses could be affected by human activities would be useful to conservation decisions. Currently, there are no adequate estimates of walrus abundance in the northeastern Chukchi Sea during summer–early autumn. Estimating abundance in autumn might be possible from coastal surveys of hauled out walruses during periods when offshore sea ice is unavailable to walruses. We evaluated methods to estimate the size of the walrus population that was using a haulout on the coast of northwestern Alaska in autumn by using aerial photography to count the number of hauled out walruses (herd size) and data from 37 tagged walruses to estimate availability (proportion of population hauled out). We used two methods to estimate availability, direct proportions of hauled out tagged walruses and smoothed proportions using local polynomial regression. Point estimates of herd size (4200–38,000 walruses) and total population size (76,000–287,000 walruses) ranged widely among days and between the two methods of estimating availability. Estimates of population size were influenced most by variation in estimates of availability. Coastal surveys might be improved most by counting walruses when the greatest numbers are hauled out, thereby reducing the influence of availability on population size estimates. The chance of collecting data during peak haulout periods would be improved by conducting multiple surveys.

Polar Biology

High prevalence of cestodes in Artemia spp. throughout the annual cycle: relationship with abundance of avian final hosts

Brine shrimp, Artemia spp. , act as intermediate hosts for a range of cestode species that use waterbirds as their final hosts. These parasites can have marked influences on shrimp behavior and fecundity, generating the potential for cascading effects in hypersaline food webs. We present the first comprehensive study of the temporal dynamics of cestode parasites in natural populations of brine shrimp throughout the annual cycle. Over a 12-month period, clonal Artemia parthenogenetica were sampled in the Odiel marshes in Huelva, and the sexual Artemia salina was sampled in the Salinas de Cerrillos in Almería. Throughout the year, 4–45 % of A. parthenogenetica were infected with cestodes (mean species richness = 0.26), compared to 27–72 % of A. salina (mean species richness = 0.64). Ten cestode species were recorded. Male and female A. salina showed similar levels of parasitism. The most prevalent and abundant cestodes were those infecting the most abundant final hosts, especially the Greater Flamingo Phoenicopterus ruber . In particular, the flamingo parasite Flamingolepis liguloides had a prevalence of up to 43 % in A. parthenogenetica and 63.5 % in A. salina in a given month. Although there was strong seasonal variation in prevalence, abundance, and intensity of cestode infections, seasonal changes in bird counts were weak predictors of the dynamics of cestode infections. However, infection levels of Confluaria podicipina in A. parthenogenetica were positively correlated with the number of their black-necked grebe Podiceps nigricollis hosts. Similarly, infection levels of Anomotaenia tringae and Anomotaenia microphallos in A. salina were correlated with the number of shorebird hosts present the month before. Correlated seasonal transmission structured the cestode community, leading to more multiple infections than expected by chance.

Almeria;Huelva

Recent explosive eruptions and volcano hazards at Soputan volcano—a basalt stratovolcano in north Sulawesi, Indonesia

Soputan is a high-alumina basalt stratovolcano located in the active North Sulawesi-Sangihe Islands magmatic arc. Although immediately adjacent to the still geothermally active Quaternary Tondono Caldera, Soputan’s magmas are geochemically distinct from those of the caldera and from other magmas in the arc. Unusual for a basalt volcano, Soputan produces summit lava domes and explosive eruptions with high-altitude ash plumes and pyroclastic flows—eight explosive eruptions during the period 2003–2011. Our field observations, remote sensing, gas emission, seismic, and petrologic analyses indicate that Soputan is an open-vent-type volcano that taps basalt magma derived from the arc-mantle wedge, accumulated and fractionated in a deep-crustal reservoir and transported slowly or staged at shallow levels prior to eruption. A combination of high phenocryst content, extensive microlite crystallization and separation of a gas phase at shallow levels results in a highly viscous basalt magma and explosive eruptive style. The open-vent structure and frequent eruptions indicate that Soputan will likely erupt again in the next decade, perhaps repeatedly. Explosive eruptions in the Volcano Explosivity Index (VEI) 2–3 range and lava dome growth are most probable, with a small chance of larger VEI 4 eruptions. A rapid ramp up in seismicity preceding the recent eruptions suggests that future eruptions may have no more than a few days of seismic warning. Risk to population in the region is currently greatest for villages located on the southern and western flanks of the volcano where flow deposits are directed by topography. In addition, Soputan’s explosive eruptions produce high-altitude ash clouds that pose a risk to air traffic in the region.

Bulletin of Volcanology

Fluid inclusion constraints on the geometry of the magmatic plumbing system beneath Mauna Loa – Part 2: Xenoliths

Mauna Loa volcano erupts crystal-poor material at its summit and more crystal-rich material on its rift zones. Some of the more olivine-rich lava flows contain xenoliths with diverse mineralogy, including cumulate harzburgites with high-Mg# orthopyroxenes and high-Fo olivines (both > 84). Previous experimental work and thermodynamic modelling has proposed that high-Mg# orthopyroxenes only crystallize from Mauna Loa melts at high pressures (> 6 kbar, > 20 km), leading to suggestions that there is a region of sub-Moho magma storage at Mauna Loa in addition to the geophysically imaged magma reservoir at 2–5 km depth below the summit. We use melt and fluid inclusion barometry combined with thermodynamic models to further investigate this suggestion. Fluid inclusion data from harzburgites and dunitic xenoliths yield storage depths remarkably similar to those found in non-xenolithic crystals from lavas and tephras, with a clear peak at ~ 2–3 km (below the summit). Depths from melt inclusions in these xenoliths overlap with fluid inclusion pressures, ruling out the possibility of fluid inclusion re-equilibration during a period of stalling in a shallower reservoir. We examine five different thermodynamic models and find that the minimum pressure of olivine-orthopyroxene co-saturation varies by ~ 4 kbar (~ 12 km). These models also fail to predict that orthopyroxene is stable in ~ 15–80% of compositionally relevant experimental charges which grew orthopyroxene. Overall, this shows that phase stability modelling is an unreliable method of determining magma storage depth at Mauna Loa. We suggest that model discrepancies reflect a lack of experimental constraints on orthopyroxene stability at > 1200 ℃ and 0.01–5 kbar. Based on the presence of large oikocrystic orthopyroxenes completely enclosing rounded olivine chadacrysts, we suggest that these harzburgitic xenoliths formed through the reaction of intruding melts with olivine mush piles within the Mauna Loa edifice at ~ 3 km depth below the summit, with no need for a deeper storage reservoir. The predominance of pre-eruptive shallow storage means that there is more chance of detecting reservoir destabilization with geophysical monitoring techniques compared to a scenario where melts are supplied from sub-Moho reservoirs.

Hawaii

Growth and erosion of volcanic islands since 1963 analyzed by multi-sensor satellite data and historical records

Most volcanic activity is taking place in the oceans. Depending on water depth, eruption recurrence times and volumes, a new island can form. The power of erosional forces, the type of erupted material and the efficiency of secondary processes determine the island’s lifetime. Since the famous eruption of Surtsey (Iceland) in 1963, at least another 23 volcanic islands have appeared. Some islands remained intact for years or decades, whereas others disappeared within just weeks or months. In this study, we analyzed satellite data to determine growth and erosion rates of the volcanic edifices related to these 24 islands. We combined multi-sensor (optical, thermal, radar) satellite data time series with information from literature and the Global Volcanism Program database. We developed a comprehensive dataset, including 19 parameters, on the islands’ lifetime, shape, area, volume, eruption style and duration, environmental conditions, development of sedimentary deposits, and the geomorphic evolution of the island over time. Our dataset is available in a database format. This database allows us to test eight hypotheses about factors influencing the islands’ lifetime. Our results show that instead of one single critical factor, a combination of different factors influences the life history of volcanic islands. For instance, we show that larger islands do not necessarily live longer. The mechanical properties of the eruption products affect the island’s structural integrity. Irrespective of the material, a minimum initial area of around 50,000 m 2 seems to be a reasonable threshold to give the island a chance to exist longer.

Bulletin of Volcanology

Testing an attachment method for solar-powered tracking devices on a long-distance migrating shorebird

Small solar-powered satellite transmitters and GPS data loggers enable continuous, multi-year, and global tracking of birds. What is lacking, however, are reliable methods to attach these tracking devices to small migratory birds so that (1) flight performance is not impacted and (2) tags are retained during periods of substantial mass change associated with long-distance migration. We developed a full-body harness to attach tags to Red Knots (Calidris canutus), a medium-sized shorebird (average mass 124 g) that undertakes long-distance migrations. First, we deployed dummy tags on captive birds and monitored them over a complete migratory fattening cycle (February–July 2013) during which time they gained and lost 31–110 g and underwent a pre-alternate moult of body feathers. Using each individual’s previous year fattening and moult data in captivity as controls, we compared individual mass and moult differences between years between the tagged and reference groups, and concluded that the attachment did not impact mass and moult cycles. However, some birds shed feathers under the tags and under the polyester harness line commonly used in avian harnesses. Feather shedding was alleviated by switching to smoothed-bottom tags and monofilament harness lines. To field-trial this design, we deployed 5-g satellite transmitters on ten Red Knots released on 3 October 2013 in the Dutch Wadden Sea. Bird movements and tag performance appeared normal. However, nine tags stopped transmitting 11–170 days post-release which was earlier than expected. We attribute this to bird mortality rather than failure of the attachments or transmitters and suggest that the extra weight and drag caused by the tag and its feather-blocking shield increased the chance of depredation by the locally common Peregrine Falcons (Falco peregrinus). Our results demonstrate that species- and place-specific contexts can strongly determine tagging success. While captive trials are an important first step in developing an attachment method, field trials are essential to fully assess attachment designs.

Wadden Sea

Non-native and native organisms moving into high elevation and high latitude ecosystems in an era of climate change: new challenges for ecology and conservation

Cold environments at high elevation and high latitude are often viewed as resistant to biological invasions. However, climate warming, land use change and associated increased connectivity all increase the risk of biological invasions in these environments. Here we present a summary of the key discussions of the workshop ‘Biosecurity in Mountains and Northern Ecosystems: Current Status and Future Challenges’ (Flen, Sweden, 1–3 June 2015). The aims of the workshop were to (1) increase awareness about the growing importance of species expansion—both non-native and native—at high elevation and high latitude with climate change, (2) review existing knowledge about invasion risks in these areas, and (3) encourage more research on how species will move and interact in cold environments, the consequences for biodiversity, and animal and human health and wellbeing. The diversity of potential and actual invaders reported at the workshop and the likely interactions between them create major challenges for managers of cold environments. However, since these cold environments have experienced fewer invasions when compared with many warmer, more populated environments, prevention has a real chance of success, especially if it is coupled with prioritisation schemes for targeting invaders likely to have greatest impact. Communication and co-operation between cold environment regions will facilitate rapid response, and maximise the use of limited research and management resources.

Biological Invasions

Factors affecting post-control reinvasion by seed of an invasive species, Phragmites australis , in the central Platte River, Nebraska.

Invasive plants, such as Phragmites australis , can profoundly affect channel environments of large rivers by stabilizing sediments and altering water flows. Invasive plant removal is considered necessary where restoration of dynamic channels is needed to provide critical habitat for species of conservation concern. However, these programs are widely reported to be inefficient. Post-control reinvasion is frequent, suggesting increased attention is needed to prevent seed regeneration. To develop more effective responses to this invader in the Central Platte River (Nebraska, USA), we investigated several aspects of Phragmites seed ecology potentially linked to post-control reinvasion, in comparison to other common species: extent of viable seed production, importance of water transport, and regeneration responses to hydrology. We observed that although Phragmites seed does not mature until very late in the ice-free season, populations produce significant amounts of viable seed (>50 % of filled seed). Most seed transported via water in the Platte River are invasive perennial species, although Phragmites abundances are much lower than species such as Lythrum salicaria , Cyperus esculentus and Phalaris arundinacea . Seed regeneration of Phragmites varies greatly depending on hydrology, especially timing of water level changes. Flood events coinciding with the beginning of seedling emergence reduced establishment by as much as 59 % compared to flood events that occurred a few weeks later. Results of these investigations suggest that prevention of seed set (i.e., by removal of flowering culms) should be a priority in vegetation stands not being treated annually. After seeds are in the seedbank, preventing reinvasion using prescribed flooding has a low chance of success given that Phragmites can regenerate in a wide variety of hydrologic microsites.

Nebraska

Betrayal: radio-tagged Burmese pythons reveal locations of conspecifics in Everglades National Park

The “Judas” technique is based on the idea that a radio-tagged individual can be used to “betray” conspecifics during the course of its routine social behavior. The Burmese python ( Python bivittatus ) is an invasive constrictor in southern Florida, and few methods are available for its control. Pythons are normally solitary, but from December–April in southern Florida, they form breeding aggregations containing up to 8 individuals, providing an opportunity to apply the technique. We radio-tracked 25 individual adult pythons of both sexes during the breeding season from 2007–2012. Our goals were to (1) characterize python movements and determine habitat selection for betrayal events, (2) quantify betrayal rates of Judas pythons, and (3) compare the efficacy of this tool with current tools for capturing pythons, both in terms of cost per python removed (CPP) and catch per unit effort (CPUE). In a total of 33 python-seasons, we had 8 betrayal events (24 %) in which a Judas python led us to new pythons. Betrayal events occurred more frequently in lowland forest (including tree islands) than would be expected by chance alone. These 8 events resulted in the capture of 14 new individuals (1–4 new pythons per event). Our effort comparison shows that while the Judas technique is more costly than road cruising surveys per python removed, the Judas technique yields more large, reproductive females and is effective at a time of year that road cruising is not, making it a potential complement to the status quo removal effort.

Florida

Methodological considerations of terrestrial laser scanning for vegetation monitoring in the sagebrush steppe

Terrestrial laser scanning (TLS) provides fast collection of high-definition structural information, making it a valuable field instrument to many monitoring applications. A weakness of TLS collections, especially in vegetation, is the occurrence of unsampled regions in point clouds where the sensor’s line-of-sight is blocked by intervening material. This problem, referred to as occlusion, may be mitigated by scanning target areas from several positions, increasing the chance that any given area will fall within the scanner’s line-of-sight from at least one position. Because TLS collections are often employed in remote regions where the scope of sampling is limited by logistical factors such as time and battery power, it is important to design field protocols which maximize efficiency and support increased quantity and quality of the data collected. This study informs researchers and practitioners seeking to optimize TLS sampling methods for vegetation monitoring in dryland ecosystems through three analyses. First, we quantify the 2D extent of occluded regions based on the range from single scan positions. Second, we measure the efficacy of additional scan positions on the reduction of 2D occluded regions (area) using progressive configurations of scan positions in 1 ha plots. Third, we test the reproducibility of 3D sampling yielded by a 5-scan/ha sampling methodology using redundant sets of scans. Analyses were performed using measurements at analysis scales of 5 to 50 cm across the 1-ha plots, and we considered plots in grass and shrub-dominated communities separately. In grass-dominated plots, a center-scan configuration and 5 cm pixel size sampled at least 90% of the area up to 18 m away from the scanner. In shrub-dominated plots, sampling at least 90% of the area was only achieved within a distance of 12 m. We found that 3 and 5 scans/ha are needed to sample at least ~ 70% of the total area (1 ha) in the grass and shrub-dominated plots, respectively, using 5 cm pixels to measure sampling presence-absence. The reproducibility of 3D sampling provided by a 5 position scan layout across 1-ha plots was 50% (shrub) and 70% (grass) using a 5-cm voxel size, whereas at the 50-cm voxel scale, reproducibility of sampling was nearly 100% for all plot types. Future studies applying TLS in similar dryland environments for vegetation monitoring may use our results as a guide to efficiently achieve sampling coverage and reproducibility in datasets.

Idaho

Using neutral landscape models to evaluate the umbrella species concept in an ecotone

Context Steep declines in North American rangeland biodiversity have prompted researchers and managers to use umbrella species as a tool to manage diverse suites of co-occurring wildlife, but efficacy of this method has been variable. Evaluation of prairie and shrubland grouse as umbrellas is typically restricted to observed overlap between umbrella and background species, but this approach does not distinguish between overlap due to ubiquity or niche overlap. Objectives We demonstrate a novel application of neutral landscape models (NLMs) to test the effectiveness of greater sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ) as an umbrella species for grassland songbirds at a grassland-sagebrush ecotone in northeastern Wyoming, USA. Methods We leveraged existing spatial data representing sage-grouse habitat in two distinct seasons (nesting and late brood-rearing) and density and distribution of eight grassland songbirds. We applied a permutation-based analysis using NLMs to determine whether overlap between background species and greater sage-grouse was greater than expected by chance. Results Three species (western meadowlark Sturnella neglecta , loggerhead shrike Lanius ludovicianus , and lark bunting Calamospiza melanocorys ) had greater overlap than expected with at least one type of greater sage-grouse habitat, while western kingbirds ( Tyrannus verticalis ) indicated avoidance of all sage-grouse habitat assessed. Conclusions NLMs provided a more nuanced evaluation of the umbrella species concept than previously available and allowed us to differentiate between overlap due to ubiquity (e.g., vesper sparrow; Pooecetes gramineus ) rather than overlap in habitat use. All grassland passerine species with greater than expected overlap with sage-grouse habitat either nest in sagebrush (loggerhead shrike) or often select nest locations underneath small shrubs (western meadowlark, lark bunting). These results indicate that nesting substrate is a potential niche axis to consider when evaluating the umbrella species concept, especially within sagebrush-grassland ecotones.

Wyoming

A methodology for the assessment of unconventional (continuous) resources with an application to the Greater Natural Buttes gas field, Utah

The Greater Natural Buttes tight natural gas field is an unconventional (continuous) accumulation in the Uinta Basin, Utah, that began production in the early 1950s from the Upper Cretaceous Mesaverde Group. Three years later, production was extended to the Eocene Wasatch Formation. With the exclusion of 1100 non-productive (“dry”) wells, we estimate that the final recovery from the 2500 producing wells existing in 2007 will be about 1.7 trillion standard cubic feet (TSCF) (48.2 billion cubic meters (BCM)). The use of estimated ultimate recovery (EUR) per well is common in assessments of unconventional resources, and it is one of the main sources of information to forecast undiscovered resources. Each calculated recovery value has an associated drainage area that generally varies from well to well and that can be mathematically subdivided into elemental subareas of constant size and shape called cells. Recovery per 5-acre cells at Greater Natural Buttes shows spatial correlation; hence, statistical approaches that ignore this correlation when inferring EUR values for untested cells do not take full advantage of all the information contained in the data. More critically, resulting models do not match the style of spatial EUR fluctuations observed in nature. This study takes a new approach by applying spatial statistics to model geographical variation of cell EUR taking into account spatial correlation and the influence of fractures. We applied sequential indicator simulation to model non-productive cells, while spatial mapping of cell EUR was obtained by applying sequential Gaussian simulation to provide multiple versions of reality (realizations) having equal chances of being the correct model. For each realization, summation of EUR in cells not drained by the existing wells allowed preparation of a stochastic prediction of undiscovered resources, which range between 2.6 and 3.4 TSCF (73.6 and 96.3 BCM) with a mean of 2.9 TSCF (82.1 BCM) for Greater Natural Buttes. A second approach illustrates the application of multiple-point simulation to assess a hypothetical frontier area for which there is no production information but which is regarded as being similar to Greater Natural Buttes.

Utah

An association between a cusk eel (Bassozetus sp.) and a black coral (Schizopathes sp.) in the deep western Indian Ocean

Detailed observations in the deep sea can reveal previously unknown behaviour, species interactions and fine-scale habitat heterogeneity. Here, the first in situ images of the black coral Schizopathes sp. (Anthozoa: Antipatharia) in the deep western Indian Ocean have been obtained from remotely operated vehicle video footage and time-lapse photography. In these images, there appears to be an association with the cusk eel Bassozetus (Family: Ophidiidae). In the primary observation, chance encounters revealed the fish interacted with the anitpatharian on multiple occasions over several days. Subsequent time-lapse camera footage showed the fish remained almost exclusively underneath the antipatharian for the duration of a 30-h deployment. Excursions from the cover of the antipatharian were for less than 2 min. The primary observation is supported by two similar encounters in the same region. Observed reduction in the tail-beat frequency of the fish under the antipatharian suggests reduced energy requirements for the ophidiid in this position. The observations demonstrate the role that even individual coral colonies play as a source of three-dimensional structure, providing habitat heterogeneity in the deep sea.

Marine Biodiversity Records