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Regression Equations for Monthly and Annual Mean and Selected Percentile Streamflows for Ungaged Rivers in Maine

In an effort to delineate hydrologic conditions in Maine, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Maine Department of Transportation, used streamflow data to develop dependent variables for 130 regression equations for estimating monthly and annual mean and 1, 5, 10, 25, 50, 75, 90, 95, and 99 percentile streamflows for ungaged, unregulated rivers in Maine. Daily streamflow data from 24 rural unregulated basins with drainage areas between 14.9 and 1,419 square miles in Maine and northern New Hampshire were used in the derivation of the equations. Streamflow data collected from October 1, 1982, through September 30, 2012, were used to derive the dependent variables for this study to represent current [2015] hydrologic conditions in Maine and northern New Hampshire. Weighted least squares regression techniques were used to derive the final coefficients and measures of uncertainty for the regression equations. Eight basin characteristics serve as the explanatory variables: drainage area, distance from the coast, mean and maximum basin elevation, mean basin slope, mean basin percentage of hydrologic soil group A, fraction of sand and gravel aquifers, and percentage of open water. The largest average errors of prediction are associated with regression equations for the lowest streamflows derived for months during which the lowest streamflows of the year occur (such as the 5 and 1 monthly percentiles for August and September). The regression equations have been derived on the basis of streamflow and basin characteristics data for unregulated, rural drainage basins without substantial streamflow or drainage modifications (for example, diversions and (or) regulation by dams or reservoirs, tile drainage, irrigation, channelization, and impervious paved surfaces), therefore using the equations for regulated or urbanized basins with substantial streamflow or drainage modifications will yield results of unknown error. Input basin characteristics derived using techniques or datasets other than those documented in this report or using values outside the ranges used to develop these regression equations also will yield results of unknown error.

Maine

Rapid diagnostic test to detect and discriminate infectious hematopoietic necrosis virus (IHNV) genogroups U and M to aid management of Pacific Northwest salmonid populations

Infectious hematopoietic necrosis virus (IHNV) is an acute pathogen of salmonids in North America, Europe, and Asia that is phylogenetically classified into five major virus genogroups (U, M, L, E, and J). The geographic range of the U and M genogroup isolates overlap in the North American Columbia River Basin and Washington Coast region, where these genogroups pose different risks depending on the species of Pacific salmon ( Oncorhynchus spp.). For certain management decisions, there is a need to both test for IHNV presence and rapidly determine the genogroup. Herein, we report the development and validation of a U/M multiplex reverse transcription, real-time PCR (RT-rPCR) assay targeting the IHNV nucleocapsid (N) protein gene. The new U/M RT-rPCR is a rapid, sensitive, and repeatable assay capable of specifically discriminating between North American U and M genogroup IHNV isolates. However, one M genogroup isolate obtained from commercially cultured Idaho rainbow trout ( O. mykiss ) showed reduced sensitivity with the RT-rPCR test, suggesting caution may be warranted before applying RT-rPCR as the sole surveillance test in areas associated with the Idaho trout industry. The new U/M assay had high diagnostic sensitivity (DSe > 94%) and specificity (DSp > 97%) in free-ranging adult Pacific salmon, when assessed relative to cell culture, the widely accepted reference standard, as well as the previously validated universal N RT-rPCR test. The high diagnostic performance of the new U/M assay indicates the test is suitable for surveillance, diagnosis, and confirmation of IHNV in Pacific salmon from the Pacific Northwest regions where the U and M genogroups overlap.

Animals

Forces shaping future U.S. coal production and use

More than half of the electricity in the United States is generated by coal-fired powerplants. U.S. coal producers sell almost 90 percent of their product for electricity generation, and so, the future of the U.S. coal industry will be determined by the future of coal-fired electricity-generation plants. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is completing a National Coal Resource Assessment (NCRA) of five major coal-producing regions of the United States (fig. 1): (1) the Appalachian Basin, (2) the Illinois Basin, (3) the Gulf Coast, (4) the Colorado Plateau, and (5) the Northern Rocky Mountains and Great Plains. The Powder River and Williston Basins are the principal producing areas of the Northern Rocky Mountains and Great Plains region.

Fact Sheet

Data base for a national mineral-resource assessment of undiscovered deposits of gold, silver, copper, lead, and zinc in the conterminous United States

For this assessment, the conterminous United States was divided into 12 regions Adirondack Mountains, Central and Southern Rocky Mountains, Colorado Plateau, East Central, Great Basin, Great Plains, Lake Superior, Northern Appalachians, Northern Rocky Mountains, Pacific Coast, Southern Appalachians, and Southern Basin and Range. The assessment, which was conducted by regional assessment teams of scientists from the USGS, was based on the concepts of permissive tracts and deposit models. Permissive tracts are discrete areas of the United States for which estimates of numbers of undiscovered deposits of a particular deposit type were made. A permissive tract is defined by its geographic boundaries such that the probability of deposits of the type delineated occurring outside the boundary is neglible. Deposit models, which are based on a compilation of worldwide literature and on observation, are sets of data in a convenient form that describe a group of deposits which have similar characteristics and that contain information on the common geologic attributes of the deposits and the environments in which they are found. Within each region, the assessment teams delineated permissive tracts for those deposit models that were judged to be appropriate and, when the amount of information warranted, estimated the number of undiscovered deposits. A total of 46 deposit models were used to assess 236 separate permissive tracts. Estimates of undiscovered deposits were limited to a depth of 1 km beneath the surface of the Earth. The estimates of the number of undiscovered deposits of gold, silver, copper, lead, and zinc were expressed in the form of a probability distribution. Commonly, the number of undiscovered deposits was estimated at the 90th, 50th, and 10th percentiles. A Monte Carlo simulation computer program was used to combine the probability distribution of the number of undiscovered deposits with the grade and tonnage data sets associated with each deposit model to obtain the probability distribution for undiscovered metal.

conterminous United States

Texture and depositional history of near-surface alluvial deposits in the central part of the western San Joaquin Valley, California

Saline conditions and associated high levels of selenium and other soluble trace elements in soil, shallow ground water, and agricultural drain water of the western San Joaquin Valley, California, have prompted a study of the texture of near-surface alluvial deposits in the central part of the western valley. Texture is characterized by the percentage of coarse-grained sediment present within a specified subsurface depth interval and is used as a basis for mapping the upper 50 feet of deposits. Resulting quantitative descriptions of the deposits are used to interpret the late Quaternary history of the area. Three hydrogeologic units--Coast Range alluvium, flood-basin deposits, and Sierran sand--can be recognized in the upper 50 feet of deposits in the central part of the western San Joaquin Valley. The upper 30 feet of Coast Range alluvium and the adjacent 5 to 35 feet of flood-basin deposits are predominantly fine grained. These fine-grained Coast Range deposits are underlain by coarse-grained channel deposits. The fine-grained flood basin deposits are underlain by coarse-grained Sierran sand. The extent and orientation of channel deposits below 20 feet in the Coast Range alluvium indicate that streams draining the Coast Range may have been tributary to the axial stream that deposited the Sierran sand and that streamflow may have been to the southeast. The fining-upward stratigraphic sequence in the upper 50 feet of deposits and the headward retreat of tributary stream channels from the valley trough with time support a recent hypothesis of climatic control of alluviation in the western San Joaquin Valley.

California

Estuarine sediment transport by gravity-driven movement of the nepheloid layer, Long Island Sound

Interpretation of sidescan-sonar imagery provides evidence that down-slope gravity-driven movement of the nepheloid layer constitutes an important mode of transporting sediment into the basins of north-central Long Island Sound, a major US East Coast estuary. In the Western Basin, this transport mechanism has formed dendritic drainage systems characterized by branching patterns of low backscatter on the seafloor that exceed 7.4 km in length and progressively widen down-slope, reaching widths of over 0.6 km at their southern distal ends. Although much smaller, dendritic patterns of similar morphology are also present in the northwestern part of the Central Basin. Because many contaminants display affinities for adsorption onto fine-grained sediments, and because the Sound is affected by seasonal hypoxia, mechanisms and dispersal pathways by which inorganic and organic sediments are remobilized and transported impact the eventual fate of the contaminants and environmental health of the estuary.

Connecticut, Massachussetts, New York

Status of White Sturgeon (Acipenser transmontanus Richardson, 1863) throughout the species range, threats to survival, and prognosis for the future

White Sturgeon, Acipenser transmontanus (WS), are distributed throughout three major river basins on the West Coast of North America: the Sacramento-San Joaquin, Columbia, and Fraser River drainages. Considered the largest North American freshwater fish, some WS use estuarine habitat and make limited marine movements between river basins. Some populations are listed by the United States or Canada as threatened or endangered (upper Columbia River above Grand Coulee Dam; Kootenai River; lower, middle and, upper Fraser River and Nechako River), while others do not warrant federal listing at this time (Sacramento-San Joaquin Rivers; Columbia River below Grand Coulee Dam; Snake River). Threats that impact WS throughout the species’ range include fishing effects and habitat alteration and degradation. Several populations suffer from recruitment limitations or collapse due to high early life mortality associated with these threats. Efforts to preserve WS populations include annual monitoring, harvest restrictions, habitat restoration, and conservation aquaculture. This paper provides a review of current knowledge on WS life history, ecology, physiology, behavior, and genetics and presents the status of WS in each drainage. Ongoing management and conservation efforts and additional research needs are identified to address present and future risks to the species.

Journal of Applied Ichthyology

Processes and rates of sediment and wood accumulation in headwater streams of the Oregon Coast Range, USA

Channels that have been scoured to bedrock by debris flows provide unique opportunities to calculate the rate of sediment and wood accumulation in low-order streams, to understand the temporal succession of channel morphology following disturbance, and to make inferences about processes associated with input and transport of sediment. Dendrochronology was used to estimate the time since the previous debris flow and the time since the last stand-replacement fire in unlogged basins in the central Coast Range of Oregon. Debris flow activity increased 42 per cent above the background rate in the decades immediately following the last wildfire. Changes in wood and sediment storage were quantified for 13 streams that ranged from 4 to 144 years since the previous debris flow. The volume of wood and sediment in the channel, and the length of channel with exposed bedrock, were strongly correlated with the time since the previous debris flow. Wood increased the storage capacity of the channel and trapped the majority of the sediment in these steep headwater streams. In the absence of wood, channels that have been scoured to bedrock by a debris flow may lack the capacity to store sediment and could persist in a bedrock state for an extended period of time. With an adequate supply of wood, low-order channels have the potential of storing large volumes of sediment in the interval between debris flows and can function as one of the dominant storage reservoirs for sediment in mountainous terrain.

Oregon

Riparian litter inputs to streams in the central Oregon Coast Range

Riparian-zone vegetation can influence terrestrial and aquatic food webs through variation in the amount, timing, and nutritional content of leaf and other litter inputs. We investigated how riparian-forest community composition, understory density, and lateral slope shaped vertical and lateral litter inputs to 16 streams in the Oregon Coast Range. Riparian forests dominated by deciduous red alder delivered greater annual vertical litter inputs to streams (504 g m −2 y −1 ) than did riparian forests dominated by coniferous Douglas-fir (394 g m −2 y −1 ). Deciduous forests also contributed greater lateral litter inputs per meter of stream bank on one side (109 g m −1 y −1 ) than did coniferous forests (63 g m −1 y −1 ). Total litter inputs from deciduous forests exceeded those from coniferous forests most strongly in November, coincident with an autumn peak in litter inputs. Lateral litter inputs contributed most to total inputs during winter in both forest types. Annual lateral litter movement increased with slope at deciduous sites, but only in spring/summer months at coniferous sites. Neither experimental removal of understory vegetation nor installation of mesh fences to block downslope litter movement affected lateral litter inputs to streams, suggesting that ground litter moves <5 m downslope annually. N concentrations of several litter fractions were higher at deciduous sites and, when combined with greater litter amounts, yielded twice as much total litter N flux to streams in deciduous than coniferous sites. The presence of red alder in riparian forests along many small streams of the deeply incised and highly dendritic basins of the Oregon Coast Range enhances total fluxes and seasonality of litter delivery to both terrestrial and aquatic food webs in this region and complements the shade and large woody debris provided by large coniferous trees.

Oregon

Monitoring long-term effects of offshore oil and gas development along the Southern California outer continental shelf and slope: Background environmental conditions in the Santa Maria Basin

Potential environmental impacts of materials discharged from oil and gas development and production platforms off the coast of southern California (Santa Maria Basin) are being monitored during an ongoing, long-term (fiveyear) field program. The study combines hypothesis testing of platform effects with basic research on the structure and dynamics of the regional ecosystem over a time series encompassing both seasonal and repeated annual scales. Oceanographic features and processes that are being measured focus on the benthos and include biological community indices and species abundances for hard-bottom and soft-bottom (macroinfauna and meiofauna) assemblages; levels and distributions of trace metals and hydrocarbons in bottom sediments, suspended particulates, animal tissues, and pore waters; water currents and otherphysical-oceanographicfeatures; various sedimentological properties (sediment grain size, total organic carbon, shear strength, distribution of mineral types, radioisotope profiles, and degrees of sediment mixing as a result of bioturbation); sediment and pollutant-transport processes; and animal-sediment-pollutant interactions. Synoptic measurement of these different environmental variables over the extended sampling period provides an opportunity to examine long-term variability in the benthic environment with respect to both natural and anthropogenic causes. Efforts to distinguish between natural variability and low-level cumulative impacts of drilling are given special attention. Results obtained during the first two years of sampling provide a basis for beginning to understand environmental processes and relations important in detecting and interpreting any subsequent impacts caused by drilling activities in this complex and productive region of the California outer continental shelf and slope. Background chemical, physical, and biological data generated during this period demonstrate that impacts of discharges from oil and gas operations should be detectable, if they occur, and should be distinguishable from natural environmental variability. Small inputs of barium and petroleum hydrocarbons have been detected and appear to be associated with the minor drilling activities that have occurred in the area thus far, however, these initial inputs have not led to any noticeable biological impacts. These initial results are hopefully of value for two reasons: (1) in providing a summary of basic chemical, physical, and biological features of the benthic environment within the Santa Maria Basin; and (2) in presenting information on research strategies that should be considered in designing studies dealing with similar resource-management problems in other parts of the world.

California

Variations on a method for evaluating decadal-scale changes in the groundwater quality of two GAMA coastal study units 2004–14, California GAMA Priority Basin Project

Decadal changes in groundwater quality in two study units on the north-central California coast were evaluated by the Priority Basin Project (PBP) of the Groundwater Ambient Monitoring and Assessment (GAMA) Program. Groundwater samples collected from wells during 2004–05 were compared on a pair-wise basis to samples collected from the same wells during 2014. The data set consisted of paired-samples from 50 public supply wells in 2 GAMA-PBP study units (25 wells each in the North San Francisco Bay and the Monterey Bay and Salinas Valley Basins), with analytical results for 160 water-quality constituents. Statistical analysis was done on grouped results for the 59 constituents that were detected in at least 10 percent of the samples during either sampling period to evaluate decadal-scale change by a step-trend analysis. The data for both of the sampling periods were processed three different ways, resulting in three variations of the paired results to be submitted for statistical analyses. The first evaluation method variation processed data only to facilitate comparison of data when one or both of the results was a non-detection. The second and third variations applied the additional requirement that differences between initial and decadal-sample results exceed a defined threshold to prevent small differences from supporting the conclusion of a step trend. One method for setting the difference threshold between initial-sampling and resampling results is based on criteria used by the GAMA-PBP to determine whether or not replicate results are acceptable. The other difference-threshold-setting method uses a calculated confidence interval around each result based on demonstrated analytical variability for the constituents during each sampling period. Finally, constituents for which decadal-scale changes were statistically significant were identified using the Wilcoxon-Pratt signed-rank test on each of the three evaluation method variations. Step trends were identified by at least 1 of the 3 method variations for 33 constituents. After considering other factors, however, such as water-quality context and the results of quality-control samples, it was concluded that decadal changes were meaningful for 14 constituents in at least 1 of the 2 study units. Constituents for which step trends indicated meaningful increases were dissolved oxygen, total nitrogen, nitrate, orthophosphate, calcium, chloride, sulfate, iron, and lithium. Constituents for which step trends indicated meaningful decreases were temperature, arsenic, lead, the isotopic ratio of carbon-13, and tritium.

California

Comparison of the physical and geotechnical properties of gas-hydrate-bearing sediments from offshore India and other gas-hydrate-reservoir systems

The sediment characteristics of hydrate-bearing reservoirs profoundly affect the formation, distribution, and morphology of gas hydrate. The presence and type of gas, porewater chemistry, fluid migration, and subbottom temperature may govern the hydrate formation process, but it is the host sediment that commonly dictates final hydrate habit, and whether hydrate may be economically developed. In this paper, the physical properties of hydrate-bearing regions offshore eastern India (Krishna-Godavari and Mahanadi Basins) and the Andaman Islands, determined from Expedition NGHP-01 cores, are compared to each other, well logs, and published results of other hydrate reservoirs. Properties from the hydrate-free Kerala-Konkan basin off the west coast of India are also presented. Coarser-grained reservoirs (permafrost-related and marine) may contain high gas-hydrate-pore saturations, while finer-grained reservoirs may contain low-saturation disseminated or more complex gas-hydrates, including nodules, layers, and high-angle planar and rotational veins. However, even in these fine-grained sediments, gas hydrate preferentially forms in coarser sediment or fractures, when present. The presence of hydrate in conjunction with other geologic processes may be responsible for sediment porosity being nearly uniform for almost 500 m off the Andaman Islands. Properties of individual NGHP-01 wells and regional trends are discussed in detail. However, comparison of marine and permafrost-related Arctic reservoirs provides insight into the inter-relationships and common traits between physical properties and the morphology of gas-hydrate reservoirs regardless of location. Extrapolation of properties from one location to another also enhances our understanding of gas-hydrate reservoir systems. Grain size and porosity effects on permeability are critical, both locally to trap gas and regionally to provide fluid flow to hydrate reservoirs. Index properties corroborate more advanced consolidation and triaxial strength test results and can be used for predicting behavior in other NGHP-01 regions. Pseudo-overconsolidation is present near the seafloor and is underlain by underconsolidation at depth at some NGHP-01 locations.

Journal of Marine and Petroleum Geology

Effects of imported recharge on fluoride trends in groundwater used for public supply in California

Fluoride is a naturally occurring element in groundwater that supports bone and dental health at low concentrations but can cause health problems at elevated concentrations in drinking water. This study investigates spatial and temporal trends for fluoride concentrations in untreated groundwater from over 20,000 public supply wells in California. The presence of a significant temporal trend in fluoride concentrations in a well was assessed using the Mann-Kendall test and a spatial-weighting approach was used to identify the areal extent of the groundwater resources with significant trends. Less than 2% of the groundwater resources used for public supply in the state have concentrations above the California maximum contaminant level of 2 mg/L. Approximately 14% of the groundwater resource used for public supply show a significant recent trend (2000–2019), with decreasing trends occurring in 10% of the resource. Potential drivers for trends were evaluated in two of the areas in southern California with the greatest prevalence of trends but distinct climate and hydrogeological characteristics. Aquifers in the Mojave and Whitewater River watersheds, located in the desert region, and the Los Angeles Basin, located on the coast, have been replenished with imported and treated water over the last half century to maintain sustainable groundwater levels. The recharge of imported water with different chemistries has altered the geochemical conditions in the aquifers, driving changes in fluoride concentrations.

California

Precipitation regime change in Western North America: The role of atmospheric rivers

Daily precipitation in California has been projected to become less frequent even as precipitation extremes intensify, leading to uncertainty in the overall response to climate warming. Precipitation extremes are historically associated with Atmospheric Rivers (ARs). Sixteen global climate models are evaluated for realism in modeled historical AR behavior and contribution of the resulting daily precipitation to annual total precipitation over Western North America. The five most realistic models display consistent changes in future AR behavior, constraining the spread of the full ensemble. They, moreover, project increasing year-to-year variability of total annual precipitation, particularly over California, where change in total annual precipitation is not projected with confidence. Focusing on three representative river basins along the West Coast, we show that, while the decrease in precipitation frequency is mostly due to non-AR events, the increase in heavy and extreme precipitation is almost entirely due to ARs. This research demonstrates that examining meteorological causes of precipitation regime change can lead to better and more nuanced understanding of climate projections. It highlights the critical role of future changes in ARs to Western water resources, especially over California.

California

National assessment of carbon dioxide enhanced oil recovery and associated carbon dioxide retention resources — Summary

Introduction In 2020, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) completed a probabilistic assessment of the volume of technically recoverable oil resources that might be produced by using current carbon dioxide enhanced oil recovery (CO 2 -EOR) technologies in amenable conventional oil reservoirs underlying the onshore and State waters areas of the conterminous United States. The assessment also includes estimates of the mass of CO 2 that could be stored (retained) in the assessed oil reservoirs following the application of the CO 2 -EOR process. The USGS assessment team evaluated more than 3,500 oil reservoirs that were miscible to injected CO 2 . The assessed reservoirs are in 185 previously defined USGS plays in 33 petroleum provinces of 7 national regions. The team estimated that the total technically recoverable oil resulting from the application of the CO 2 -EOR process ranges from approximately 25,000 million barrels (MMbbl) at the P 5 percentile to as much as 32,000 MMbbl at the P 95 percentile, with a mean of 29,000 MMbbl. The associated CO 2 retention ranges from approximately 7,400 million metric tons (Mt) at the P 5 percentile to as much as 9,500 Mt at the P 95 percentile, with a mean of 8,400 Mt. The results are summarized in this fact sheet and are provided in more detail in the companion data release and circular. The West Texas and Eastern New Mexico region (primarily its Permian Basin) and the Gulf Coast region together contain 60 percent of the mean assessed CO 2 -EOR oil potential and 61 percent of the mean assessed CO 2 retention. Other regions with significant resource potential include the Midcontinent region and the Rocky Mountains and Northern Great Plains region.

Continental United States

Engineering and Economics of the USGS Circum-Arctic Oil and Gas Resource Appraisal (CARA) Project

This Open-File report contains illustrative materials, in the form of PowerPoint slides, used for an oral presentation given at the Fourth U.S. Geological Survey Workshop on Reserve Growth of petroleum resources held on March 10-11, 2008. The presentation focused on engineering and economic aspects of the Circum-Arctic Oil and Gas Resource Appraisal (CARA) project, with a special emphasis on the costs related to the development of hypothetical oil and gas fields of different sizes and reservoir characteristics in the North Danmarkshavn Basin off the northeast coast of Greenland. The individual PowerPoint slides highlight the topics being addressed in an abbreviated format; they are discussed below, and are amplified with additional text as appropriate. Also included in this report are the summary results of a typical ?run? to generate the necessary capital and operating costs for the development of an offshore oil field off the northeast coast of Greenland; the data are displayed in MS Excel format generated using Questor software (IHS Energy, Inc.). U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) acknowledges that this report includes data supplied by IHS Energy, Inc.; Copyright (2008) all rights reserved. IHS Energy has granted USGS the permission to publish this report.

Open-File Report

Probability analysis of the relation of salinity to freshwater discharge in the St. Sebastian River, Florida

The St. Sebastian River lies in the southern part of the Indian River basin on the east coast of Florida. Increases in freshwater discharge due to urbanization and changes in land use have reduced salinity in the St. Sebastian River and, consequently, salinity in the Indian River, affecting the commercial fishing industry. Wind, water temperature, tidal flux, freshwater discharge, and downstream salinity all affect salinity in the St. Sebastian River estuary, but freshwater discharge is the only one of these hydrologic factors which might be affected by water-management practices. A probability analysis of salinity conditions in the St. Sebastian River estuary, taking into account the effects of freshwater discharge over a period from May 1992 to March 1996, was used to determine the likelihood (probability) that salinities, as represented by daily mean specific- conductance values, will fall below a given threshold. The effects of freshwater discharge on salinities were evaluated with a simple volumetric model fitted to time series of measured specific conductance, by using nonlinear optimization techniques. Specific-conductance values for two depths at monitored sites represent stratified flow which results from differences in salt concentration between freshwater and saltwater. Layering of freshwater and saltwater is assumed, and the model is applied independently to each layer with the assumption that the water within the layer is well mixed. The model of specific conductance as a function of discharge (a salinity response model) was combined with a model of residual variation to produce a total probability model. Flow distributions and model residuals were integrated to produce a salinity distribution and determine differences in salinity probabilities as a result of changes in water-management practices. Two possible management alternatives were analyzed: stormwater detention (reducing the peak rate of discharge but not reducing the overall flow volume) and stormwater retention (reducing peak discharges without later release). Detention of freshwater discharges increased the probability of specific- conductance values falling below a given limit (20,000 microsiemens per centimeter) for all sites but one. The retention of freshwater input to the system decreased the likelihood of falling below a selected limit of specific conductance at all sites. For limits of specific conductance (1,000 microsiemens per centimeter or 20,000 microsiemens per centimeter, depending on the site), the predicted days of occurrence below a limit decreased ranging from 17 to 68 percent of the predicted days of occurrence for unregulated flow. The primary finding to be drawn from the discharge-salinity analysis is that an empirical-response model alone does not provide adequate information to assess the response of the system to changes in flow regime. Whether a given level of discharge can produce a given response on a given day is not as important as the probability of that response on a given day and over a period of many days. A deterministic model of the St. Sebastian River estuary based only on discharge would predict that retention of discharge peaks should increase the average salinity conditions in the St. Sebastian River estuary. The probabilistic model produces a very different response indicating that salinity can decrease by a power of three as discharges increase, and that random factors can predominate and control salinity until discharges increase sufficiently to flush the entire system of saltwater.

Florida

Ground water in Santa Clara Valley, California

Santa Clara Valley extends southeastward from San Francisco, lying between the Diablo Range on the northeast and the Santa Cruz and Gabilan ranges on the southwest. (See Pl. I.) Its north end is occupied by the southern part of San Francisco Bay. Toward the south it rises gradually and becomes increasingly rough until it ceases to be a valley. Its trend is approximately parallel to the Pacific coast and to the main structural trend of the Coast Ranges. The drainage basin of Santa Clara Valley is about 140 miles long and has a maximum width of/ about 45 miles; the area tributary to the valley south of latitude 37° 40' is about 3,100 square miles.1 The valley itself has a length of about 100 miles, of which 70 miles is south of San Francisco Bay, a maximum width of about 15 miles, and an area, exclusive of the part. occupied by the bay, of about 590 square miles, or about 380,000 acres. This report covers only that part of Santa Clara Valley lying south · of latitude 37° 40', but there is some land north of this line on the east side of San Francisco Bay that may properly be considered a part of the valley.

California