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USGS2017

Model selection for the North American Breeding Bird Survey: A comparison of methods

The North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) provides data for >420 bird species at multiple geographic scales over 5 decades. Modern computational methods have facilitated the fitting of complex hierarchical models to these data. It is easy to propose and fit new models, but little attention has been given to model selection. Here, we discuss and illustrate model selection using leave-one-out cross validation, and the Bayesian Predictive Information Criterion (BPIC). Cross-validation is enormously computationally intensive; we thus evaluate the performance of the Watanabe-Akaike Information Criterion (WAIC) as a computationally efficient approximation to the BPIC. Our evaluation is based on analyses of 4 models as applied to 20 species covered by the BBS. Model selection based on BPIC provided no strong evidence of one model being consistently superior to the others; for 14/20 species, none of the models emerged as superior. For the remaining 6 species, a first-difference model of population trajectory was always among the best fitting. Our results show that WAIC is not reliable as a surrogate for BPIC. Development of appropriate model sets and their evaluation using BPIC is an important innovation for the analysis of BBS data.

Condor↗

USGS1997

Population trends of black terns from the North American Breeding Bird Survey, 1966-1996

Data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey indicate a survey-wide decline in Black Terns (Chlidonias niger) at an average rate of 3.1% annually during 1966-1996. Black Terns in Canada decreased at an average annual rate of 3.5% during this interval, while the United States population showed no significant trends. The long-term declines largely reflect trends prior to 1980, when the continental, Canadian, and United States populations decreased at average annual rates of 7.5%, 5.6%, and 11.9%, respectively. Most population trends were reversed during the 1990s, causing trend estimates over the 1980-1996 interval to become more positive. Associations between patterns of change in Black Terns, Mallards (Anas platyrhynchos), and numbers of ponds in the northern Great Plains suggest some relationships exist between habitat availability and the population trajectories.

Colonial Waterbirds↗

USGS1981

The North American Breeding Bird Survey

A brief history of the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) and a discussion of the technique are presented. The approximately 2000 random roadside routes conducted yearly during the breeding season throughout North America produce an enormous bank of data on distribution and abundance of breeding birds with great potential use. Data on about one million total birds of 500 species per year are on computer tape to facilitate accessibility and are available to any serious investigator. The BBS includes the advantages of wide geographic coverage, sampling of most habitat types, standardization of data collection, and a relatively simple format. The Survey is limited by placement of roads (e.g., marshes and rugged mountainous areas are not well sampled), traffic noise interference in some cases and preference of some bird species for roadside habitats. These and other problems and biases of the BBS are discussed. The uniformity of the technique allows for detecting changes in populations and for creation of maps of relative abundance. Examples of each are presented.

Book chapter↗

USGS1997

Population trends of Black Terns from the North American Breeding Bird Survey, 1966-1996

Data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey indicate a survey-wide decline in Black Terns (Chlidonias niger) at an average rate of 3.1% annually during 1966-1996. Black Terns in Canada decreased at an average annual rate of 3.5% during this interval, while the United States population showed no significant trends. These long-term declines largely reflect trends prior to 1980, when the continental, Canadian, and United States populations decreased at average annual rates of 7.5%, 5.6%, and 11.9%, respectively. Most population trends were reversed during the 1990s, causing trend estimates over the 1980-1996 interval to become more positive. Associations between patterns of change in Black Terns, Mallards (Anas platyrhynchos), and numbers of ponds in the northern Great Plains suggest some relationships exist between habitat availability and the population trajectories.

Waterbirds↗

USGS2017

The first 50 years of the North American Breeding Bird Survey

The vision of Chandler (Chan) S. Robbins for a continental-scale omnibus survey of breeding birds led to the development of the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS). Chan was uniquely suited to develop the BBS. His position as a government scientist had given him experience with designing and implementing continental-scale surveys, his research background made him an effective advocate of the need for a survey to monitor pesticide effects on birds, and his prominence in the birding community gave him connections to infrastructure—a network of qualified volunteer birders who could conduct roadside surveys with standardized point counts. Having started in the eastern United States and the Atlantic provinces of Canada in 1966, the BBS now provides population change information for ∼546 species in the continental United States and Canada, and recently initiated routes in Mexico promise to greatly expand the areas and species covered by the survey. Although survey protocols have remained unchanged for 50 years, the BBS remains relevant in a changing world. Several papers that follow in this Special Section of The Condor: Ornithological Advances review how the BBS has been applied to conservation assessments, especially in combination with other large-scale survey data. A critical feature of the BBS program is an active research program into field and analytical methods to enhance the quality of the count data and to control for factors that influence detectability. Papers in the Special Section also present advances in BBS analyses that improve the utility of this expanding and sometimes controversial survey. In this Perspective, we introduce the Special Section by reviewing the history of the BBS, describing current analyses, and providing summary trend results for all species, highlighting 3 groups of conservation concern: grassland-breeding birds, aridland-breeding birds, and aerial insectivorous birds.

The Condor↗

USGS1994

Mourning dove population trend estimates from Call-Count and North American Breeding Bird Surveys

The mourning dove ( Zenaida macrour a) Call-count Survey and the North American Breeding Bird Survey provide information on population trends of mourning doves throughout the continental United States. Because surveys are an integral part of the development of hunting regulations, a need exists to determine which survey provides precise information. We estimated population trends from 1966 to 1988 by state and dove management unit, and assessed the relative efficiency of each survey. Estimates of population trend differ ( P < 0.05) between surveys in 11 of 48 states; 9 of 11 states with divergent results occur in the Eastern Management Unit. Differences were probably a consequence of smaller sample sizes in the Callcount Survey. The Breeding Bird Survey generally provided trend estimates with smaller variances than did the Callcount Survey. Although the Callcount Survey probably provides more withinroute accuracy because of survey methods and timing, the Breeding Bird Survey has a larger sample size of survey routes and greater consistency of coverage in the Eastern Unit.

continental United States↗

USGS2019

BbsAssistant: An R package for downloading and handling data and information from the North American Breeding Bird Survey

This R package contains functions for downloading and munging data from the U.S. Geological Surveys North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) via file transfer protocol (FTP) (Pardieck, Ziolkowski Jr, Lutmerding, & Hudson, 2018; J. R. Sauer et al., 2017). This package was created to allow the user to bulk-download the BBS point count and related (e.g., route-level conditions) via FTP, and to quickly subset the data by taxonomic classifications and/or geographical locations. This package also maintains data containing the trend and annual indices from the most recent (1996-2017) hierarchical population analyses (J. Sauer et al., 2017).

Journal of Open Source Software↗

USGS1985

A search for stability gradients in North American breeding bird communities

To search for the existence of stability gradients in North American breeding land bird communities we operationally defined stability (after Jarvinen 1979) as year-to-year persistence in species composition and distribution of species abundances. From the census data for 174 study plots we derived nine indices that estimate the annual variability of species composition, the species abundance distribution, diversity, and breeding density. The resulting matrix of study plot by stability indices was used to estimate the correlation structure of the stability indices. The correlation matrix was, in turn, subjected to a principal components analysis to derive synthetic gradients of variation. We then searched for patterns of variation in these stability gradients associated with either geographic location or habitat type. Three independent principal component axes reproduced most of the variation in the initial data and were interpreted as gradients of variation in species turnover, diversity, and breeding abundance. Thus, the annual stability of community structure apparently responds independently to species and abundance variation. Despite the clarity of the derived gradients, few patterns emerged when the plots were ordinated by either habitat or geographic location. In general, grasslands showed greater annual variation in diversity than forested habitats, and, for some habitats, northern communities were less stable than more southern communities. However, few of these patterns were very strong, and we interpret them cautiously.

The Auk↗

USGS1995

Population trends from the North American Breeding Bird Survey

INTRODUCTION: Most Neotropical migrant birds are difficult to count accurately and are moderately common over large breeding distributions. Consequently, little historical information exists on their large-scale population changes, and most of this information is anecdotal. Surveys begun in this century such as Breeding Bird Censuses and Christmas Bird Counts have the potential to provide this information, but only the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) achieves the extensive continental coverage necessary to document population changes for most Neotropical migrant birds. Conservationists and ecologists have begun to use BBS data to estimate population trends, but there is still widespread confusion over exactly what these data show regarding population changes. In this chapter, we review the current state of knowledge regarding population changes in Neotropical migrant birds and the methods used to analyze these changes. The primary emphasis is on the BBS (Robbins et al. 1986) because this survey provides the best available data for estimating trends of Neotropical migrants on a continental scale. To address questions about methods of analyzing survey data, we review and compare some alternative methods of analyzing BBS data. We also discuss the effectiveness of the BBS in sampling Neotropical migrant species, and review possibilities for use of alternative data sets to verify trends from the BBS.

Book chapter↗

USGS2015

Estimating regional landbird populations from enhanced North American Breeding Bird Surveys

Estimating the size of bird populations is central to effective conservation planning and prudent management. I updated estimated regional bird populations for the East Gulf Coastal Plain of Mississippi using data from 275 North American Breeding Bird Surveys from 2009 to 2013. However, regional bird populations estimated from count surveys of breeding birds may be biased due to lack of empirical knowledge of the distance at which a species is effectively detected and the probability of detecting a species if it is present. I used data recorded within two distance classes (0–50 m and >50–400 m) and three 1-min time intervals on 130 Breeding Bird Surveys to estimate detection probability and effective detection distance for 77 species. Incorporating these empirical estimates of detection probability and detection distance resulted in estimated regional populations for these species that were markedly greater than regional populations estimated without species-specific estimates of detection parameters. Using the same Breeding Bird Survey data, I also estimated probability of site occupancy for 66 species and extrapolated this to the proportion of area occupied in the East Gulf Coastal Plain of Mississippi. I combined the area occupied with the reported range of breeding territory size for 54 species to obtain independent estimates of regional bird populations. Although the true population of these species is unknown, estimated populations that incorporated empirical estimates of detection probability and detection distance were more likely to be within the range of independently estimated, occupancy-based, regional population estimates than were population estimates that lacked empirical detection and distance information.

Mississippi↗

USGS1994

Observer differences in the North American Breeding Bird Survey

Because count data collected in many bird surveys are only an index to population size, factors that can influence the counts must be identified and incorporated into analyses. Observer quality is often ignored in analyses of population changes from survey data, but observers differ in methods and capabilities and, hence, tend to count different numbers of birds. We assess the consequences of between-observer differences in counts for estimation of population trends in the North American Breeding Bird Survey. Observer differences in numbers of birds counted were found in 50% of the 369 species we examined. For many species, observers in later years tended to count more birds than observers in earlier years, suggesting an increase in observer quality over time. Analysis of population trends from 1966 through 1991 indicates that failure to include observers as covariables in the analysis results in an overly optimistic view of population trends.

The Auk↗

USGS2014

Modeling participation duration, with application to the North American Breeding Bird Survey

We consider “participation histories,” binary sequences consisting of alternating finite sequences of 1s and 0s, ending with an infinite sequence of 0s. Our work is motivated by a study of observer tenure in the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS). In our analysis, j indexes an observer’s years of service and X j is an indicator of participation in the survey; 0s interspersed among 1s correspond to years when observers did not participate, but subsequently returned to service. Of interest is the observer’s duration D = max { j : X j = 1}. Because observed records X = ( X 1 , X 2 ,..., X n ) 1 are of finite length, all that we can directly infer about duration is that D ⩾ max { j ⩽ n : X j = 1}; model-based analysis is required for inference about D . We propose models in which lengths of 0s and 1s sequences have distributions determined by the index j at which they begin; 0s sequences are infinite with positive probability, an estimable parameter. We found that BBS observers’ lengths of service vary greatly, with 25.3% participating for only a single year, 49.5% serving for 4 or fewer years, and an average duration of 8.7 years, producing an average of 7.7 counts.

Communications in Statistics - Theory and Methods↗

USGS2003

Use of North American Breeding Bird Survey data to estimate population change for bird conservation regions

Conservation planning requires information at a variety of geographic scales, and it is often unclear whether surveys designed for other purposes will provide appropriate information for management at various scales. We evaluated the use of the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) to meet information needs for conservation planning in Bird Conservation Regions (BCRs). The BBS originally was developed to provide regional estimates for states, provinces, physiographic regions, and larger areas. Many analyses have used physiographic regions within states/provinces as strata. We evaluated potential consequences of using BCRs instead of the BBS physiographic regions, testing for spatial differences in sample intensity within states and provinces. We reclassified the BBS survey routes to BCRs and conducted route regression trend (interval-specific population change) analyses for a variety of regions and time intervals. Our results were similar to those based on traditional BBS regions and suggest minimal consequences of the reclassification for the BBS sample. We summarized population change within BCRs and assessed the efficiency of the BBS in estimating population change for 421 species surveyed. As would be expected from an omnibus survey, many species appeared to be poorly monitored by the BBS, with 42% of species encountered at <1 bird per route from the survey, and 28% of trend estimates too imprecise to detect a 3% per year change over 35 years. Our results indicated that the quality of the survey for estimation of population change varied among BCRs. Population trends of species were heterogeneous over space and time, varying among BCRs for 76% of species and over time for 39% of species. Regional heterogeneity also existed in trends of species groups from the BBS. While 49% of all species in the survey had increasing populations, grassland breeding birds showed consistent declines, with only 18% of species having positive trend estimates. Bird Conservation Regions appear to provide reasonable strata for summary of BBS data.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗

USGS2005

Using the North American Breeding Bird Survey as a tool for conservation: A critique of Bart et al. (2004)

Bart et al. (2004) develop methods for predicting needed samples for estimation of long-term trends from Count survey data, and they apply these methods to the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS). They recommend adding approximately 40% more survey routes ill the BBS to allow for estimation of long-term (i.e., 20 year) trends for a collection of species. We critique several aspects of their analysis and suggest that their focus on long-term trends and expansion of the present survey design will provide limited benefits for conservation because it fails to either enhance the credibility of the survey or better tie the survey to regional management activities. A primary innovation claimed by Bart et al. (2004) is the incorporation of bias in estimation of study planning. We question the value of this approach, as it requires reliable estimates of range of future bias. We show that estimates of bias used by Bart et al. (2004) are speculative. Failure to obtain better estimates of this bias is likely to compromise the credibility of future analyses of the survey. We also note that the generic analysis of population trends that they provide is of questionable validity and is unlikely to be relevant for regions and species of management concern.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗

USGS2017

Use of North American Breeding Bird Survey data in avian conservation assessments

Conservation resources are limited, and prioritizing species based on their relative vulnerability and risk of extinction is a fundamental component of conservation planning. In North America, the conservation consortium Partners in Flight (PIF) has developed and implemented a data-driven species assessment process, at global and regional scales, based on quantitative vulnerability criteria. This species assessment process has formed the biological basis for PIF's continental and regional planning and has informed the ranking and legal listing of bird species for conservation protection by state, provincial, and national agencies in Canada, the U.S., and Mexico. Because of its long time series, extensive geographic and species coverage, standardized survey methods, and prompt availability of results, the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) has been an invaluable source of data, allowing PIF to assign objective vulnerability scores calibrated across more than 460 landbird species. BBS data have been most valuable for assessing long-term population trends (PT score). PIF has also developed methods for estimating population size by extrapolating from BBS abundance indices, allowing the assignment of categorical population size (PS) scores for landbird species. At regional scales, BBS relative abundance indices have allowed PIF to assess the area importance (i.e. stewardship responsibility) of each Bird Conservation Region (BCR) for each species, using measures of both relative density and percent of total population in each BCR. Besides direct applicability to assessment scores, PIF has recently used BBS trend data to create new metrics of conservation urgency (e.g., ‘half-life'), as well as for setting population objectives for tracking progress toward meeting conservation goals. Future directions include integrating BBS data with other sources (e.g., eBird) to assess additional species and nonbreeding season measures, working closely with BBS coordinators to expand surveys into Mexico, and providing assessment scores at implementation-relevant scales, such as for migratory bird joint ventures.

The Condor↗

USGS2024

Informative priors can account for location uncertainty in stop-level analyses of the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS), allowing fine-scale ecological analyses

Ecological inferences are often based on the locations at which species are present, but many species records have substantial uncertainty in spatial metadata, limiting their utility for fine-scale analyses. This is especially prevalent in historical records such as museum specimens, and in some citizen-science data. For example, the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) has 55+ years of bird data from regular transects (“routes”) across the continent but was not designed to capture the spatial component of point count events, limiting analyses of species-habitat relationships for which it would otherwise be well suited. We present a new methodology for quantifying location uncertainty in BBS records using digitized estimated stop locations, deriving the corresponding environmental covariate uncertainty distributions, and incorporating this information into hierarchical species distribution models using informative Bayesian priors. This approach allows for estimation of species–environment relationships in a way that fully accounts for underlying spatial uncertainty. We quantify stop-location uncertainty in BBS data across the central United States, model bird–land cover relationships in the upper Midwest, and validate our method by comparing posterior land cover estimates to known covariate values for a subset of GPS-digitized stop locations. We provide code for implementing this method in R. Posterior land cover estimates (forest, grass/hay, and developed land cover), based on our informative priors, were highly correlated with known land cover values from GPS-digitized stop locations. Our approach thus makes it possible to responsibly leverage large historic and citizen science databases, such as the BBS, for fine-scale ecological analyses.

Ornithological Applications↗

USGS2017

North American Breeding Bird Survey in Mississippi

Does it seem like you are hearing fewer Northern Bobwhite (Colinus virginianus) calls in recent years than you remember when you were younger? Conversely, have you also noticed hearing more “cooing” of Eurasian Collared-Doves (Streptopelia decaocto)? Do such experiences reflect changes in bird populations or are they false impressions? Well, fortunately for us, we have one of the most powerful wildlife data sets freely available, only a few mouse clicks away, for divining these answers. For most of our songbirds, their population trends are estimated from data gathered during the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS).

Mississippi↗

USGS2013

Modeling trends from North American Breeding Bird Survey data: a spatially explicit approach

Population trends, defined as interval-specific proportional changes in population size, are often used to help identify species of conservation interest. Efficient modeling of such trends depends on the consideration of the correlation of population changes with key spatial and environmental covariates. This can provide insights into causal mechanisms and allow spatially explicit summaries at scales that are of interest to management agencies. We expand the hierarchical modeling framework used in the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) by developing a spatially explicit model of temporal trend using a conditional autoregressive (CAR) model. By adopting a formal spatial model for abundance, we produce spatially explicit abundance and trend estimates. Analyses based on large-scale geographic strata such as Bird Conservation Regions (BCR) can suffer from basic imbalances in spatial sampling. Our approach addresses this issue by providing an explicit weighting based on the fundamental sample allocation unit of the BBS. We applied the spatial model to three species from the BBS. Species have been chosen based upon their well-known population change patterns, which allows us to evaluate the quality of our model and the biological meaning of our estimates. We also compare our results with the ones obtained for BCRs using a nonspatial hierarchical model (Sauer and Link 2011). Globally, estimates for mean trends are consistent between the two approaches but spatial estimates provide much more precise trend estimates in regions on the edges of species ranges that were poorly estimated in non-spatial analyses. Incorporating a spatial component in the analysis not only allows us to obtain relevant and biologically meaningful estimates for population trends, but also enables us to provide a flexible framework in order to obtain trend estimates for any area.

PLoS ONE↗