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At least 1,063 records · Page 59Linked to original sources

Use of the MODFLOW 6 water mover package to represent natural and managed hydrologic connections

The latest release of MODFLOW 6, the current core version of the MODFLOW groundwater modeling software, debuted a new package dubbed the “mover” (MVR). Using a generalized approach, MVR facilitates the transfer of water among any arbitrary combination of simulated features (i.e., pumping wells, stream, drains, lakes, etc.) within a MODFLOW 6 simulation. Four “rules” controlling the amount of water transferred from a providing feature to a receiving feature are currently available. In this way, MVR can represent natural connections between features, for example streams entering or exiting lakes, and perhaps more interestingly, it also can transfer water among simulated features to more accurately simulate water management. An example model representative of an agricultural setting demonstrates some of the available MVR connections. For example, an irrigation event that transfers surface water from an irrigation delivery ditch to multiple cropped areas demonstrates a “one-to-many” connection that is possible within MVR. Conversely, irrigation or precipitation runoff from multiple fields may be routed to a particular stream segment using “many-to-one” MVR connections. MVR supports many additional connection types, several of which are demonstrated by the included example problem.

Groundwater↗

A regional model comparison between MODPATH and MT3D of groundwater travel time distributions

Groundwater quality changes in wells and streams lag behind changes to land use due to groundwater travel times. Two contaminant transport methods were compared to assess differences in their simulated travel time distributions (TTDs) to streams and wells in the Wisconsin Central Sands. MODPATH simulates advective groundwater flow with particle tracking, while MT3D simulates age-mass using a finite difference solution without dispersion to allow for direct comparison of the two methods. MODPATH appropriately simulates groundwater TTDs from the water table to surface discharge but is subject to inaccuracies at weak-sink well cells due to the flow-model grid discretization and imprecise location of well discharge within well cells. MT3D better represents weak-sink well cells since it removes mass in proportion to the prescribed pumping rate, although travel time within well cells is neglected. Conversely, MT3D's treatment of surface water boundary cells is not as accurate as MODPATH because mass should be removed from the water table rather than the full cell volume. MT3D simulations of TTDs can also be confounded by the instantaneous vertical distribution of mass introduced throughout recharge cells instead of at the water table, which initiates mass along deeper flow paths. We evaluated 9 MODPATH and 13 MT3D implementations, generating differences in median travel times of up to 18 years. Both methods have strengths and weaknesses, with MT3D better representing weak-sink well cell behavior and MODPATH better representing surficial recharge and discharge. The effect of these characteristics on simulated TTDs, along with ideas for ameliorating method weaknesses, is discussed.

Wisconsin↗

Spatial, road geometric, and biotic factors associated with Barn Owl mortality along an interstate highway

Highway programs typically focus on reducing vehicle collisions with large mammals because of economic or safety reasons while overlooking the millions of birds that die annually from traffic. We studied wildlife‐vehicle collisions along an interstate highway in southern Idaho, USA, with among the highest reported rates of American Barn Owl Tyto furcata road mortality. Carcass data from systematic and ad hoc surveys conducted in 2004–2006 and 2013–2015 were used to explore the extent to which spatial, road geometric, and biotic factors explained Barn Owl‐vehicle collisions. Barn Owls outnumbered all other identified vertebrate species of roadkill and represented > 25% of individuals and 73.6% of road‐killed birds. At a 1‐km highway segment scale, the number of dead Barn Owls decreased with increasing numbers of human structures, cumulative length of secondary roads near the highway, and width of the highway median. Number of dead Barn Owls increased with higher commercial average annual daily traffic (CAADT), small mammal abundance index, and with grass rather than shrubs in the roadside verge. The small mammal abundance index was also greater in roadsides with grass versus mixed shrubs, suggesting that Barn Owls may be attracted to grassy portions of the highway with more abundant small mammals for hunting prey. When assessed at a 3‐km highway segment scale, the number of dead Barn Owls again increased with higher CAADT as well as with greater numbers of dairy farms. At a 5‐km scale, number of dead Barn Owls increased with greater percentage of cropland near the highway. While human conversion of the environment from natural shrub‐steppe to irrigated agriculture in this region of Idaho has likely enhanced habitat for Barns Owls, it simultaneously has increased risk for owl‐vehicle collisions where an interstate highway traverses the altered landscape. We review some approaches for highway mitigation and suggest that reducing wildlife‐vehicle collisions involving Barn Owls may contribute to the persistence of this species.

Idaho↗

Comparative dynamics of small mammal populations in treefall gaps and surrounding understorey within Amazonian rainforest

Variation in food resource availability can have profound effects on habitat selection and dynamics of populations. Previous studies reported higher food resource availability and fruit removal in treefall gaps than in the understorey. Therefore, gaps have been considered 'keystone habitat' for Neotropical frugivore birds. Here we test if this prediction would also hold for terrestrial small mammals. In the Amazon, we quantified food resource availability in eleven treefall gaps and paired understorey habitats and used feeding experiments to test if two common terrestrial rodents ( Oryzomys megacephalus and Proechimys spp.) would perceive differences between habitats. We live-trapped small mammals in eleven gaps and understorey sites for two years, and compared abundance, fitness components (survival and per capita recruitment) and dispersal of these two rodent species across gaps and understorey and seasons (rainy and dry). Our data indicated no differences in resource availability and consumption rate between habitats. Treefall gaps may represent a sink habitat for Oryzomys where individuals had lower fitness, apparently because of habitat-specific ant predation on early life stages, than in the understorey, the source habitat. Conversely, gaps may be source habitat for Proechimys where individuals had higher fitness, than in the understorey, the sink habitat. Our results suggest the presence of source-sink dynamics in a tropical gap-understorey landscape, where two rodent species perceive habitats differently. This may be a mechanism for their coexistence in a heterogeneous and species-diverse system.

World Biosphere Park Manu↗

Habitat, topographical, and geographical components structuring shrubsteppe bird communities

Landscapes available to birds to select for breeding locations are arrayed along multiple dimensions. Identifying the primary gradients structuring shrubsteppe bird communities in the western United States is important because widespread habitat loss and alteration are shifting the environmental template on which these birds depend. We integrated field habitat surveys, GIS coverages, and bird counts from 61 Breeding Bird Survey routes located in shrubsteppe habitats across a >800 000 km2 region to determine the gradients of habitat, topography, and geography underlying bird communities. A small set of habitat features dominated the primary environmental gradients in a canonical ordination; the 13 species in the shrubsteppe bird community were closely packed along the first two axes. Using hierarchical variance partitioning, we identified habitat as the most important pure (31% explained variation) or shared component. Topography (9%) and geography (4%) were minor components but each shared a larger contribution with habitat (habitat-topography 21%; habitat-geography 22%) in explaining the organization of the bird community. In a second tier partition of habitat structure, pure composition (% land cover) was more important (45%) than configuration (patch size and edge) (7%); the two components shared 27% of the explained variation in the bird community axes. Local (9%), community (14%), and landscape (10%) levels contributed equally. Adjacent organizational levels had a larger shared contribution (local-community 26%; community-landscape 27%) than more separated local-landscape levels (21%). Extensive conversion of shrubsteppe habitats to agriculture, exotic annual grasslands, or pinyon (Pinus spp.)-juniper (Juniperus spp.) woodlands is occurring along the primary axes of habitat structure. Because the shrubsteppe bird community was organized along short gradients dominated by habitat features, relatively small shifts in their available environment will exert a strong influence on these bird populations in the absence of buffering by alternative gradients. ?? 2008 The Authors.

Ecography↗

Stable isotope and pen feeding trial studies confirm the value of horseshoe crab Limulus polyphemus eggs to spring migrant shorebirds in Delaware Bay

We used stable isotope (SI) methods in combination with pen feeding trials to determine the importance of eggs of the Atlantic horseshoe crab Limulus polyphemus to migratory fattening of red knots Calidris canutus rufa and ruddy turnstones Arenaria interpres morinella during spring stopover in Delaware Bay. By manifesting measurable fractionation (ca +3‰) and rapid turnover, blood plasma δ 15 nitrogen proved a functional marker for SI diet tracking during the short 3-week stopover. Blood samples from free-ranging knots (3 data sets) and turnstones (1 data set) produced similar convergence of plasma δ 15 N signatures with increasing body mass that indicated highly similar diets. Asymptotes deviated slightly (0.3‰ to 0.7‰) from that of captive shorebirds fed a diet of only crab eggs during stopover, thus confirming a strong crab egg-shorebird linkage. The plasma δ 15 N crab-egg diet asymptote was enriched ca +4.5‰ and therefore readily discriminated from that of either blue mussels Mytilus edulis or coquina clams Donax variabilis , the most likely alternative prey of knots in Delaware Bay. Crab eggs were highly palatable to captive knots and turnstones which achieved rates of mass gain (3–11 g/d) comparable to that of free-ranging birds. Peak consumption rates during hyperphagic events were 23,940 and 19,360 eggs/bird/d, respectively. The empirical conversions of eggs consumed to body mass gained (5,017 eggs/g for knots and 4,320 eggs/g for turnstones) indicate the large quantities of crab eggs required for the maintenance of these shorebird populations during stopover.

Delaware↗

Growth, body composition and hepatic tyrosine aminotransferase activity in cortisol-fed channel catfish, Ictalurus punctatus Rafinesque

Metabolic consequences of chronic elevation of cortisol in the diet of yearling channel catfish, Ictalurus punctatus , were studied. Cortisol was incorporated into the diet in concentrations of 1, 10, 50 and 100 μg/g of food. This diet was offered at 3% of the body weight per day for 10 weeks. Fish were individually weighed and measured at 2-week intervals and feeding rates were adjusted. Body weight, liposomatic index and condition factor were significantly lower and food conversion was significantly higher in fish fed 50 or 100 μng cortisol/g of food when compared with controls. The hepatosomatic index of fish fed cortisol at the rate of 100 μg/g of food decreased significantly. Specific activity of hepatic tyrosine aminotransferase was significantly higher at the two highest cortisol doses. Long-term cortisol administration can reduce growth and condition factor by activating gluconeogenic mechanisms in which lipids and amino acids, rather than carbohydrates, are used for energy production. The metabolic effects of exogenous cortisol in this study offer an explanation for the decreased growth of fish under conditions that activate the secretion of endogenous cortisol.

Journal of Fish Biology↗

Partial replacement of fish meal with spray-dried blood powder to reduce phosphorus concentrations in diets for juvenile rainbow trout, Oncorhynchus mykiss (Walbaum)

Feeds formulated with 5.7, 11.4 and 22.7% spray-dried blood powder, also called blood flour (88.1% protein, 0.2% total phosphorus), were compared with a control diet with 49% herring meal (64% protein, 2.1% total phosphorus) and no blood powder for rearing juvenile rainbow trout. Oncorhynchus my kiss (Walbaum). Diets with 5.7, 11.4 and 22.7% blood powder contained 1.22,1.03 and 0.84% phosphorus, respectively, compared with 1.36% phosphorus in the control diet. Over 12 weeks, differences in mean specific growth (range 2.23-2.35 day −1 ) or feed conversion (range 1.04-1.09) among the four diets were not significant ( P > 0.05). Apparent digestibility of phosphorus in the diet with 22.7% blood powder was greater (45.2%) than that in the control diet (31.6%). Increases in phosphorus concentrations in the water in which trout were fed diets with blood powder (range 16-20 μg −1 total phosphorus) were 33-47% less ( P <0.05) than in tanks where trout were fed the control diet (30μg −1 total phosphorus). Feed formulations for rainbow trout prepared with 22.7% blood powder and 17.0% fish meal would contain 65.3% less fish meal and 38% less total phosphorus than present in the control diet, which was a representation of a modern feed formulation for rainbow trout.

Aquaculture Research↗

Body-wave traveltime and amplitude shifts from asymptotic travelling wave coupling

We explore the sensitivity of finite-frequency body-wave traveltimes and amplitudes to perturbations in 3-D seismic velocity structure relative to a spherically symmetric model. Using the approach of coupled travelling wave theory, we consider the effect of a structural perturbation on an isolated portion of the seismogram. By convolving the spectrum of the differential seismogram with the spectrum of a narrow window taper, and using a Taylor's series expansion for wavenumber as a function of frequency on a mode dispersion branch, we derive semi-analytic expressions for the sensitivity kernels. Far-field effects of wave interactions with the free surface or internal discontinuities are implicitly included, as are wave conversions upon scattering. The kernels may be computed rapidly for the purpose of structural inversions. We give examples of traveltime sensitivity kernels for regional wave propagation at 1 Hz. For the direct SV wave in a simple crustal velocity model, they are generally complicated because of interfering waves generated by interactions with the free surface and the Mohorovic??ic?? discontinuity. A large part of the interference effects may be eliminated by restricting the travelling wave basis set to those waves within a certain range of horizontal phase velocity. ?? Journal compilation ?? 2006 RAS.

Geophysical Journal International↗

A three-dimensional geophysical model of the crust in the Barents Sea region: Model construction and basement characterization

BARENTS50, a new 3-D geophysical model of the crust in the Barents Sea Region has been developed by the University of Oslo, NORSAR and the U.S. Geological Survey. The target region comprises northern Norway and Finland, parts of the Kola Peninsula and the East European lowlands. Novaya Zemlya, the Kara Sea and Franz-Josef Land terminate the region to the east, while the Norwegian-Greenland Sea marks the western boundary. In total, 680 1-D seismic velocity profiles were compiled, mostly by sampling 2-D seismic velocity transects, from seismic refraction profiles. Seismic reflection data in the western Barents Sea were further used for density modelling and subsequent density-to-velocity conversion. Velocities from these profiles were binned into two sedimentary and three crystalline crustal layers. The first step of the compilation comprised the layer-wise interpolation of the velocities and thicknesses. Within the different geological provinces of the study region, linear relationships between the thickness of the sedimentary rocks and the thickness of the remaining crystalline crust are observed. We therefore, used the separately compiled (area-wide) sediment thickness data to adjust the total crystalline crustal thickness according to the total sedimentary thickness where no constraints from 1-D velocity profiles existed. The BARENTS50 model is based on an equidistant hexagonal grid with a node spacing of 50 km. The P -wave velocity model was used for gravity modelling to obtain 3-D density structure. A better fit to the observed gravity was achieved using a grid search algorithm which focussed on the density contrast of the sediment-basement interface. An improvement compared to older geophysical models is the high resolution of 50 km. Velocity transects through the 3-D model illustrate geological features of the European Arctic. The possible petrology of the crystalline basement in western and eastern Barents Sea is discussed on the basis of the observed seismic velocity structure. The BARENTS50 model is available at http://www.norsar.no/seismology/barents3d/ .

Geophysical Journal International↗

Imaging with cross-hole seismoelectric tomography

We propose a cross-hole imaging approach based on seismoelectric conversions (SC) associated with the transmission of seismic waves from seismic sources located in a borehole to receivers (electrodes) located in a second borehole. The seismoelectric (seismic-to-electric) problem is solved using Biot theory coupled with a generalized Ohm's law with an electrokinetic streaming current contribution. The components of the displacement of the solid phase, the fluid pressure, and the electrical potential are solved using a finite element approach with Perfect Match Layer (PML) boundary conditions for the seismic waves and boundary conditions mimicking an infinite material for the electrostatic problem. We develop an inversion algorithm using the electrical disturbances recorded in the second borehole to localize the position of the heterogeneities responsible for the SC. Because of the ill-posed nature of the inverse problem (inherent to all potential-field problems), regularization is used to constrain the solution at each time in the SC-time window comprised between the time of the seismic shot and the time of the first arrival of the seismic waves in the second borehole. All the inverted volumetric current source densities are aggregated together to produce an image of the position of the heterogeneities between the two boreholes. Two simple synthetic case studies are presented to test this concept. The first case study corresponds to a vertical discontinuity between two homogeneous sub-domains. The second case study corresponds to a poroelastic inclusion (partially saturated by oil) embedded into an homogenous poroelastic formation. In both cases, the position of the heterogeneity is recovered using only the electrical disturbances associated with the SC. That said, a joint inversion of the seismic and seismoelectric data could improve these results.

Geophysical Journal International↗

Impact of land use and land cover change on groundwater recharge and quality in the southwestern US

Humans have exerted large‐scale changes on the terrestrial biosphere, primarily through agriculture; however, the impacts of such changes on the hydrologic cycle are poorly understood. The purpose of this study was to test the hypothesis that the conversion of natural rangeland ecosystems to agricultural ecosystems impacts the subsurface portion of the hydrologic cycle by changing groundwater recharge and flushing salts to underlying aquifers. The hypothesis was examined through point and areal studies investigating the effects of land use/land cover (LU/LC) changes on groundwater recharge and solute transport in the Amargosa Desert (AD) in Nevada and in the High Plains (HP) in Texas, US. Studies use the fact that matric (pore‐water‐pressure) potential and environmental‐tracer profiles in thick unsaturated zones archive past changes in recharging fluxes. Results show that recharge is related to LU/LC as follows: discharge through evapotranspiration (i.e., no recharge; upward fluxes <0.1 mm yr −1 ) in natural rangeland ecosystems (low matric potentials; high chloride and nitrate concentrations); moderate‐to‐high recharge in irrigated agricultural ecosystems (high matric potentials; low‐to‐moderate chloride and nitrate concentrations) (AD recharge: ∼130–640 mm yr −1 ); and moderate recharge in nonirrigated (dryland) agricultural ecosystems (high matric potentials; low chloride and nitrate concentrations, and increasing groundwater levels) (HP recharge: ∼9–32 mm yr −1 ). Replacement of rangeland with agriculture changed flow directions from upward (discharge) to downward (recharge). Recent replacement of rangeland with irrigated ecosystems was documented through downward displacement of chloride and nitrate fronts. Thick unsaturated zones contain a reservoir of salts that are readily mobilized under increased recharge related to LU/LC changes, potentially degrading groundwater quality. Sustainable land use requires quantitative knowledge of the linkages between ecosystem change, recharge, and groundwater quality.

Global Change Biology↗

Fidelity and breeding probability related to population density and individual quality in black brent geese Branta bernicla nigricans

1. Patterns of temporary emigration (associated with non-breeding) are important components of variation in individual quality. Permanent emigration from the natal area has important implications for both individual fitness and local population dynamics. 2. We estimated both permanent and temporary emigration of black brent geese (Branta bernicla nigricans Lawrence) from the Tutakoke River colony, using observations of marked brent geese on breeding and wintering areas, and recoveries of ringed individuals by hunters. We used the likelihood developed by Lindberg, Kendall, Hines & Anderson 2001 (Combining band recovery data and Pollock's robust design to model temporary and permanent emigration. Biometrics, 57, 273-281) to assess hypotheses and estimate parameters. 3. Temporary emigration (the converse of breeding) varied among age classes up to age 5, and differed between individuals that bred in the previous years vs. those that did not. Consistent with the hypothesis of variation in individual quality, individuals with a higher probability of breeding in one year also had a higher probability of breeding the next year. 4. Natal fidelity of females ranged from 0.70 ?? 0.07-0.96 ?? 0.18 and averaged 0.83. In contrast to Lindberg et al. (1998), we did not detect a relationship between fidelity and local population density. Natal fidelity was negatively correlated with first-year survival, suggesting that competition among individuals of the same age for breeding territories influenced dispersal. Once females nested at the Tutakoke River, colony breeding fidelity was 1.0. 5. Our analyses show substantial variation in individual quality associated with fitness, which other analyses suggest is strongly influenced by early environment. Our analyses also suggest substantial interchange among breeding colonies of brent geese, as first shown by Lindberg et al. (1998).

Journal of Animal Ecology↗

Landscape genetics of high mountain frog metapopulations

Explaining functional connectivity among occupied habitats is crucial for understanding metapopulation dynamics and species ecology. Landscape genetics has primarily focused on elucidating how ecological features between observations influence gene flow. Functional connectivity, however, may be the result of both these between‐site (landscape resistance) landscape characteristics and at‐site (patch quality) landscape processes that can be captured using network based models. We test hypotheses of functional connectivity that include both between‐site and at‐site landscape processes in metapopulations of Columbia spotted frogs ( Rana luteiventris ) by employing a novel justification of gravity models for landscape genetics (eight microsatellite loci, 37 sites, n = 441). Primarily used in transportation and economic geography, gravity models are a unique approach as flow (e.g. gene flow) is explained as a function of three basic components: distance between sites, production/attraction (e.g. at‐site landscape process) and resistance (e.g. between‐site landscape process). The study system contains a network of nutrient poor high mountain lakes where we hypothesized a short growing season and complex topography between sites limit R. luteiventris gene flow. In addition, we hypothesized production of offspring is limited by breeding site characteristics such as the introduction of predatory fish and inherent site productivity. We found that R. luteiventris connectivity was negatively correlated with distance between sites, presence of predatory fish (at‐site) and topographic complexity (between‐site). Conversely, site productivity (as measured by heat load index, at‐site) and growing season (as measured by frost‐free period between‐sites) were positively correlated with gene flow. The negative effect of predation and positive effect of site productivity, in concert with bottleneck tests, support the presence of source–sink dynamics. In conclusion, gravity models provide a powerful new modelling approach for examining a wide range of both basic and applied questions in landscape genetics.

Idaho↗

Evolution of a trench-slope basin within the Cascadia subduction margin: The Neogene Humboldt Basin, California

The Neogene Humboldt (Eel River) Basin is located along the north-eastern margin of the Pacific Ocean within the Cascadia subduction zone. This sedimentary basin originated near the base of the accretionary prism in post-Eocene time. Subduction processes since that time have elevated strata in the south-eastern portion of the basin above sea level. High-resolution chronostratigraphic data from the onshore portion of the Humboldt Basin enable correlation of time-equivalent lithofacies across the palaeomargin, reconstruction of slope-basin evolution, and preliminary delineation of climatic and tectonic influence on lithological variation. Emergent basin fill is divided into five lithofacies which clearly document shoaling of the inner trench slope from deep-water environments in early Miocene time to paralic environments in Pleistocene time. The oldest strata consist of hemipelagic mudstones and minor debris-flow breccias deposited in a deep-water setting during elevated sea level. These strata are overlain by glauconite-rich, fine-grained turbidites which heralded an increasing influx of terrigenous detritus. Water depths shoaled earlier in the eastern basin area as the palaeoshoreline prograded seaward. Turbidite deposition ceased in the eastern basin area at about 2-2 Ma, whereas 22 km to the west, turbidite deposition continued until about 1-8 Ma. Lithofacies at the western study site change abruptly across a middle Pleistocene unconformity from outer shelf to paralic deposits. In the east, a more complete Pleistocene section records transition from outer to inner shelf, beach and fluvial environments. The Humboldt Basin lithofacies sequence is overprinted by eustatic control of sediment source. Comparison of sediment character with palaeoceanographic conditions indicates dominance of hemipelagic facies during periods of elevated sea level in the middle Miocene and early Pliocene when depocentres were isolated from terrigenous sediment. Glauconite-rich facies were mobilized from an upper slope setting following these periods of elevated sea level and redeposited in a deep-marine environment. Pleistocene shoreline lithofacies display glacio-esutatic control of depositional environment by recording several cycles of nearshore to fluvial progressions. General models of accretionary prism behaviour and trench-slope basin evolution are compatible with the overall coarsening-upward lithofacies sequence filling the Humboldt Basin. Early structural barriers precluded deposition of terrigenous material except from locally derived debris flows; subsequent shoaling and burial of deactivated thrust-folds enabled turbidity flows to reach the basin floor. However, late-stage tectonism apparently controlled the onset of coarse-grained deposition in this sequence. Significant sand-rich turbidite deposition began in the middle Pliocene, synchronous with tectonic uplift of the southern basin margin. Conversely, cessation of turbidite deposition in the eastern basin area in latest Pliocene time was synchronous with growth of anticlinal structures which again blocked widespread dispersal of turbidity flows. This middle Pliocene to Holocene period of crustal shortening is synchronous with continued reduction in spreading rate along the southern Juan de Fuca ridge, and probably reflects partial coupling between the subducting lithosphere and the overlying accretionary prism.

California↗

A horizon scanning assessment of current and potential future threats to migratory shorebirds

We review the conservation issues facing migratory shorebird populations that breed in temperate regions and use wetlands in the non-breeding season. Shorebirds are excellent model organisms for understanding ecological, behavioural and evolutionary processes and are often used as indicators of wetland health. A global team of experienced shorebird researchers identified 45 issues facing these shorebird populations, and divided them into three categories (natural, current anthropogenic and future issues). The natural issues included megatsunamis, volcanoes and regional climate changes, while current anthropogenic threats encompassed agricultural intensification, conversion of tidal flats and coastal wetlands by human infrastructure developments and eutrophication of coastal systems. Possible future threats to shorebirds include microplastics, new means of recreation and infectious diseases. We suggest that this review process be broadened to other taxa to aid the identification and ranking of current and future conservation actions.

Ibis↗

Alternative natural gas contract and pricing structures and incentives of the LNG industry

Gas conversion to liquefied gas (LNG) and transport by LNG tankers is one option for meeting expanding gas consumption and for gas traded internationally. This paper examines the impact of the traditional gas contract provisions of indefinite pricing, market out price ceilings, and take‐or‐pay requirements on the profitability of LNG projects in the context of markets characterized by price and quantity uncertainty. Simulation experiments are used to examine and calibrate the effects of those provisions. The results provide guidance to operators, host countries and purchasers in structuring such contracts. The paper also assesses prospects of future expansion of world LNG capacity.

Natural Resources Forum↗

Edge and area effects on the occurrence of migrant forest songbirds

Concerns about forest fragmentation and its conservation implications have motivated numerous studies that investigate the influence of forest patch area and forest edge on songbird distribution patterns. The generalized effects of forest patch size and forest edge on animal distributions is still debatable because forest patch size and forest edge are often confounded and because of an incomplete synthesis of available data. To fill a portion of this gap, we incorporated all available published data (33 papers) in meta-analyses of forest edge and area effects on site occupancy patterns for 26 Neotropical migrant forest-nesting songbirds in eastern North America. All reported area effects are confounded or potentially confounded by edge effects, and we refer to these as "confounded" studies. The converse, however, is not true and most reported edge effects are independent of patch area. When considering only nonconfounded studies of edge effects, only 1 of 17 species showed significant edge avoidance and 3 had significant affinity for edges. In confounded studies, 12 of 22 species showed significant avoidance of small patches and edges, and 1 had an affinity for small patches and edges. Furthermore, average effect sizes averaged across studies or species tended to be higher for confounded studies than for edge studies. We discuss three possible reasons for differences in results between these two groups of studies. First, studies of edge effects tended to be carried out in landscapes with greater forest cover than studies of confounded effects; among confounded effects studies, as forest cover increased, we observed a nonsignificant trend towards decreasing strength of small patch or edge avoidance effects. Thus, the weaker effects in edge studies may be due to the fact that these studies were conducted in forest-dominated landscapes. Second, we may have detected strong effects only in confounded studies because area effects are much stronger than edge effects on bird occurrence, and area effects drive the results in confounded studies. Third, edge and area effects may interact in such a way that edge effects become more important as forest patch size decreases; thus, both edge and area effects are responsible for results in confounded studies. These three explanations cannot be adequately separated with existing data. Regardless, it is clear that fragmentation of forests into small patches is detrimental to many migrant songbird species. ??2005 Society for Conservation Biology.

Conservation Biology↗