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Monitoring CO2 emissions in tree kill areas near the resurgent dome at Long Valley Caldera, California

We report results of yearly measurements of the diffuse CO 2 flux and shallow soil temperatures collected since 2006 across two sets of tree-kill areas at Long Valley Caldera, California. These data provide background information about CO 2 discharge during a period with moderate seismicity, but little to no deformation. The tree kills are located at long-recognized areas of weak thermal fluid upflow, but have expanded in recent years, possibly in response to geothermal fluid production at Casa Diablo. The amount of CO 2 discharged from the older kill area at Basalt Canyon is fairly constant and is around 3-5 tonnes of CO 2 per day from an area of about 15,000 m 2 . The presence of isobutane in gas samples from sites in and around Basalt Canyon suggests that geothermal fluid production directly effects fluid upflow in the region close to the power plant. The average fluxes at Shady Rest are lower than average fluxes at Basalt Canyon, but the area affected by fluid upflow is larger. Total CO 2 discharged from the central portion of the kill area at Shady Rest has been variable, ranging from 6 to11 tonnes per day across 61,000 m 2 . Gas collected at Shady Rest contains no detectable isobutane to link emissions chemically to geothermal fluid production, but two samples from 2009-10 have detectable H 2 S and suggest an increasing geothermal character of emitted gas. The appearance of this gas at the surface may signal increased drawdown of water levels near the geothermal productions wells.

California

Organic contaminants, trace and major elements, and nutrients in water and sediment sampled in response to the Deepwater Horizon oil spill

Beach water and sediment samples were collected along the Gulf of Mexico coast to assess differences in contaminant concentrations before and after landfall of Macondo-1 well oil released into the Gulf of Mexico from the sinking of the British Petroleum Corporation's Deepwater Horizon drilling platform. Samples were collected at 70 coastal sites between May 7 and July 7, 2010, to document baseline, or "pre-landfall" conditions. A subset of 48 sites was resampled during October 4 to 14, 2010, after oil had made landfall on the Gulf of Mexico coast, called the "post-landfall" sampling period, to determine if actionable concentrations of oil were present along shorelines. Few organic contaminants were detected in water; their detection frequencies generally were low and similar in pre-landfall and post-landfall samples. Only one organic contaminant--toluene--had significantly higher concentrations in post-landfall than pre-landfall water samples. No water samples exceeded any human-health benchmarks, and only one post-landfall water sample exceeded an aquatic-life benchmark--the toxic-unit benchmark for polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH) mixtures. In sediment, concentrations of 3 parent PAHs and 17 alkylated PAH groups were significantly higher in post-landfall samples than pre-landfall samples. One pre-landfall sample from Texas exceeded the sediment toxic-unit benchmark for PAH mixtures; this site was not sampled during the post-landfall period. Empirical upper screening-value benchmarks for PAHs in sediment were exceeded at 37 percent of post-landfall samples and 22 percent of pre-landfall samples, but there was no significant difference in the proportion of samples exceeding benchmarks between paired pre-landfall and post-landfall samples. Seven sites had the largest concentration differences between post-landfall and pre-landfall samples for 15 alkylated PAHs. Five of these seven sites, located in Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama, had diagnostic geochemical evidence of Macondo-1 oil in post-landfall sediments and tarballs. For trace and major elements in water, analytical reporting levels for several elements were high and variable. No human-health benchmarks were exceeded, although these were available for only two elements. Aquatic-life benchmarks for trace elements were exceeded in 47 percent of water samples overall. The elements responsible for the most exceedances in post-landfall samples were boron, copper, and manganese. Benchmark exceedances in water could be substantially underestimated because some samples had reporting levels higher than the applicable benchmarks (such as cobalt, copper, lead and zinc) and some elements (such as boron and vanadium) were analyzed in samples from only one sampling period. For trace elements in whole sediment, empirical upper screening-value benchmarks were exceeded in 57 percent of post-landfall samples and 40 percent of pre-landfall samples, but there was no significant difference in the proportion of samples exceeding benchmarks between paired pre-landfall and post-landfall samples. Benchmark exceedance frequencies could be conservatively high because they are based on measurements of total trace-element concentrations in sediment. In the less than 63-micrometer sediment fraction, one or more trace or major elements were anthropogenically enriched relative to national baseline values for U.S. streams for all sediment samples except one. Sixteen percent of sediment samples exceeded upper screening-value benchmarks for, and were enriched in, one or more of the following elements: barium, vanadium, aluminum, manganese, arsenic, chromium, and cobalt. These samples were evenly divided between the sampling periods. Aquatic-life benchmarks were frequently exceeded along the Gulf of Mexico coast by trace elements in both water and sediment and by PAHs in sediment. For the most part, however, significant differences between pre-landfall and post-landfall samples were limited to concentrations of PAHs in sediment. At five sites along the coast, the higher post-landfall concentrations of PAHs were associated with diagnostic geochemical evidence of Deepwater Horizon Macondo-1 oil.

Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Te

Delineation of the Pahute Mesa–Oasis Valley groundwater basin, Nevada

This report delineates the Pahute Mesa–Oasis Valley (PMOV) groundwater basin, where recharge occurs, moves downgradient, and discharges to Oasis Valley, Nevada. About 5,900 acre-feet of water discharges annually from Oasis Valley, an area of springs and seeps near the town of Beatty in southern Nevada. Radionuclides in groundwater beneath Pahute Mesa, an area of historical underground nuclear testing at the Nevada National Security Site, are believed to be migrating toward Oasis Valley. Delineating the boundary of the PMOV groundwater basin is necessary to adequately assess the potential for transport of radionuclides from Pahute Mesa to Oasis Valley. The PMOV contributing area is defined based on regional water-level contours, geologic controls, and knowledge of adjacent flow systems. The viability of this area as the contributing area to Oasis Valley and the absence of significant interbasin flow between the PMOV groundwater basin and adjacent basins are shown regionally and locally. Regional constraints on the location of the contributing area boundary and on the absence of interbasin groundwater flow are shown by balancing groundwater discharges in the PMOV groundwater basin and adjacent basins against available water from precipitation. Internal consistency for the delineated contributing area is shown by matching measured water levels, groundwater discharges, and transmissivities with simulated results from a single-layer, steady-state, groundwater-flow model. An alternative basin boundary extending farther north than the final boundary was rejected based on a poor chloride mass balance and a large imbalance in the northern area between preferred and simulated recharge.

California, Nevada

Nutrient and metal loads estimated by using discrete, automated, and continuous water-quality monitoring techniques for the Blackstone River at the Massachusetts-Rhode Island State line, water years 2013–14

Flow-proportional composite water samples were collected in water years 2013 and 2014 by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Massachusetts Department of Environmental Protection, from the Blackstone River at Millville, Massachusetts (U.S. Geological Survey station 01111230), about 0.5 mile from the border with Rhode Island. Samples were collected in order to better understand the dynamics of selected nutrient and metal constituents, assist with planning, guide activities to meet water-quality goals, and provide real-time water-quality information to the public. An automated system collected the samples at 14-day intervals to determine total and dissolved nitrogen and phosphorus concentrations, to provide accurate monthly nutrient concentration data, and to calculate monthly load estimates. Concentrations of dissolved trace metals and total aluminum were determined from 4-day composite water samples that were collected twice monthly by the automated system. Results from 4-day composites provide stakeholders with information to evaluate trace metals on the basis of chronic 4-day exposure criteria for aquatic life, and the potential to use the biotic ligand model to evaluate copper concentrations. Nutrient, trace metal, suspended sediment, dissolved organic carbon, and chlorophyll a concentrations were determined from discrete samples collected at the Millville station and from across the stream transect at the upstream railroad bridge, and these concentrations served as a means to evaluate the representativeness of the Millville point location. Analytical results from samples collected with the automated flow-proportional sampling system provided the means to calculate monthly and annual loading data. Total nitrogen and total phosphorus loads in water year (WY) 2013 were about 447,000 and 36,000 kilograms (kg), respectively. In WY 2014, annual loads of total nitrogen and total phosphorus were about 342,000 and 21,000 kg, respectively. Total nitrogen and total phosphorus loads from WYs 2013 and 2014 were about 56 and 65 percent lower than those reported for WYs 2008 and 2009. The higher loads in 2008 and 2009 may be explained by the higher than average flows in WY 2009 and by facility upgrades made by wastewater treatment facilities in the basin. Median loads were determined from composite samples collected with the automated system between October 2012 and October 2014. Median dissolved cadmium and chromium 4-day loads were 0.55 and 0.84 kg, respectively. Dissolved copper and total lead median 4-day loads were 8.02 and 1.42 kg, respectively. The dissolved nickel median 4-day load was 5.45 kg, and the dissolved zinc median 4-day load was 36 kg. Median total aluminum 4-day loads were about 197 kg. Spearman’s rank correlation analyses were used with discrete sample concentrations and continuous records of temperature, specific conductance, turbidity, and chlorophyll a to identify correlations between variables that could be used to develop regression equations for estimating real-time concentrations of constituents. Correlation coefficients were generated for flow, precipitation, antecedent precipitation, physical parameters, and chemical constituents. A 95-percent confidence limit for each value of Spearman’s rho was calculated, and multiple linear regression analysis using ordinary least squares regression techniques was used to develop regression equations for concentrations of total phosphorus, total nitrogen, suspended sediment concentration, total copper, and total aluminum. Although the correlations are based on the limited amount of data collected as part of this study, the potential to monitor water-quality changes in real time may be of value to resource managers and decision makers.

Massachusetts, Rhode Island

Flood-frequency estimates for Ohio streamgages based on data through water year 2015 and techniques for estimating flood-frequency characteristics of rural, unregulated Ohio streams

Estimates of the magnitudes of annual peak streamflows with annual exceedance probabilities of 0.5, 0.2, 0.1, 0.04, 0.02, 0.01, and 0.002 (equivalent to recurrence intervals of 2-, 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, 100-, and 500-years, respectively) were computed for 391 streamgages in Ohio and adjacent states based on data collected through the 2015 water year. The flood-frequency estimates were computed following guidance outlined in Bulletin 17C, developed by the Advisory Committee on Water Information. The Bulletin 17C guidelines retain the basic statistical framework of the superseded Bulletin 17B guidelines; however, the Bulletin 17C guidelines add several enhancements including an improved method of moments approach for fitting the log-Pearson Type III (LPIII) distribution to the flood peaks (called the expected moments algorithm), a generalization of the Grubbs Beck low-outlier test (called the Multiple Grubbs Beck test) that permits identification of multiple potentially influential low floods, and new methods for estimating regional skew and uncertainty. Equations for estimating flood-frequency characteristics at ungaged sites on rural, unregulated streams in Ohio were developed with a two-step process involving ordinary least-squares and generalized least-squares regression techniques. Data from 333 streamgages with 10 or more years of unregulated record were screened for redundancy and a regression dataset was selected that was composed of flood-frequency and basin-characteristic data for 275 streamgages in Ohio and adjacent states. Two sets of equations were developed—one set, referred to as the “simple model,” uses regression region and drainage area as regressor variables, and a second set, referred to as the “full model,” uses regression region, drainage area, main-channel slope, and the percentage of the watershed covered by water and wetlands as regressor variables. The average standard errors of prediction ranged from about 40.5 to 46.5 percent for the simple-model equations and from about 37.2 to 40.3 percent for the full-model equations. For sites meeting the rural, unregulated criteria, flood-frequency estimates determined by means of LPIII analyses are reported along with weighted flood-frequency estimates, computed as a function of the LPIII estimates and the regression estimates. For sites with homogenous periods of regulation, flood-frequency estimates determined by means of LPIII analyses are reported. Ninety-five percent confidence limits are reported for all estimates. Values of regressor variables were determined from digital spatial datasets by means of a geographic information system (GIS). The GIS datasets and the new full-model equations have been incorporated into Ohio’s StreamStats application, a web-based, GIS-backed system designed to facilitate the estimation of streamflow statistics at ungaged locations on streams. Seasonal patterns in peak flows were assessed for 295 streamgages in Ohio. Annual peak flows occurred most frequently between January and April, with March having the highest frequency of occurrence. The month with the fewest number of annual peaks was October. Peak-of-record flows occurred most frequently in March, followed by January (months in which two of Ohio’s most severe widespread floods in recent history occurred). None of the peak-of-record flows occurred in October and only two occurred in November. Temporal trend in annual peak flows were assessed for 133 streamgages on unregulated streams in Ohio with 30 or more years of systematic record. Trends were assessed by computing the rank correlation (as measured with the two-sided Kendall’s tau statistic) between time and annual peak flows. Weak but statistically significant trends were indicated at 15 of the 133 streamgages. Of the 15 streamgages with significant trend in annual peak flows, 12 had an upward trend (positive tau) and 3 had a downward trend (negative tau). All 12 streamgages with positive tau values were at latitudes north of 40°33', and streamgages with negative tau values were at latitudes south of 40°33'.

Ohio

Evaluation of ground-water contribution to streamflow in coastal Georgia and adjacent parts of Florida and South Carolina

Stream-aquifer relations in the coastal area of Georgia and adjacent parts of Florida and South Carolina were evaluated as part of the Coastal Georgia Sound Science Initiative, the Georgia Environmental Protection Division's strategy to protect the Upper Floridan aquifer from saltwater intrusion. Ground-water discharge to streams was estimated using three methods: hydrograph separation, drought-streamflow measurements, and linear-regression analysis of streamflow duration. Ground-water discharge during the drought years of 1954, 1981, and 2000 was analyzed for minimum ground-water contribution to streamflow. Hydrograph separation was used to estimate baseflow at eight streamflow gaging stations during the 31-year period 1971?2001. Six additional streamflow gaging stations were evaluated using linear-regression analysis of flow duration to determine mean annual baseflow. The study area centers on three major river systems ? the Salkehatchie?Savannah?Ogeechee, Altamaha?Satilla?St Marys, and Suwannee ? that interact with the underlying ground-water system to varying degrees, largely based on the degree of incision of the river into the aquifer and on the topography. Results presented in this report are being used to calibrate a regional ground-water flow model to evaluate ground-water flow and stream-aquifer relations of the Upper Floridan aquifer. Hydrograph separation indicated decreased baseflow to streams during drought periods as water levels declined in the aquifer. Average mean annual baseflow ranged from 39 to 74 percent of mean annual streamflow, with a mean contribution of 58 percent for the period 1971?2001. In a wet year (1997), baseflow composed from 33 to 70 percent of mean annual streamflow. Drought-streamflow analysis estimated baseflow contribution to streamflow ranged from 0 to 24 percent of mean annual streamflow. Linear-regression analysis of streamflow duration estimated the Q35 (flow that is equaled or exceeded 35 percent of the time) as the most reasonable estimate of baseflow. The Q35, when compared to mean annual streamflow, estimated a baseflow contribution ranging from 65 to 102 percent of streamflow. The Q35 estimate tends to overestimate baseflow as evidenced by the baseflow contribution greater than 100 percent. Ground-water contributions to streamflow are greatest during winter when evapotranspiration is low, and least during summer when evapotranspiration is high. Baseflow accounted for a larger percentage of streamflow at gaging stations in the Salkehatchie?Savannah?Ogeechee River Basin than in the other two basins. This difference is due largely to the availability of data, proximity to the Piedmont physiographic province where the major rivers originate and are by supplied ground water, and proximity to the upper Coastal Plain where there is greater topographic relief and interconnection between streams and aquifers.

Florida, Georgia, South Carolina

Water-level and land-subsidence studies in the Mojave River and Morongo groundwater basins

Since 1992, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the Mojave Water Agency (MWA), has constructed a series of regional water-table maps for intermittent years in a continuing effort to monitor groundwater conditions in the Mojave River and Morongo groundwater basins. The previously published data, which were used to construct these maps, can be accessed on the interactive map. The associated reports describing the groundwater conditions for the Mojave River groundwater basin for 1992 (Stamos and Predmore, 1995), the Morongo groundwater basin for 1994 (Trayler and Koczot, 1995), and for both groundwater basins for 1996 (Mendez and Christensen, 1997); for 1998 (Smith and Pimentel, 2000), for 2000 (Smith, 2002), for 2002 (Smith and others, 2004), for 2004 (Stamos and others, 2004), and for 2006 (Stamos and others, 2007) can be accessed using this web site. Spatially detailed maps of interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) methods were used to characterize land subsidence associated with groundwater-level declines during various intervals of time between 1992 and 1999 in the Mojave River and Morongo groundwater basins (Sneed and others, 2003). Concerns related to the potential for new or renewed land subsidence in the basins resulted in a cooperative study between the MWA and the USGS in 2006. InSAR data were developed to determine the location, extent, and magnitude of vertical land-surface changes in the Mojave River and Morongo groundwater basins for time intervals ranging from about 35 days to 14 months between 1999 and 2000 and between 2003 and 2004. (interactive Google map) The results from many future land-subsidence studies, which are scheduled about every 10 years, will be available on this website. Mapping of water-level contours, water-level change and numerous InSAR images were combined in an interactive map. This interactive map may be customized to your needs and viewed at a scale that is appropriate for the data.

California

Simulation of groundwater and surface-water interaction and lake resiliency at Crystal Lake, City of Crystal Lake, Illinois

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the City of Crystal Lake, Illinois, started a study to increase understanding of groundwater and surface-water interaction between the glacial aquifer and the city’s namesake lake, Crystal Lake, and the effect of higher and lower precipitation conditions on groundwater and lake levels. The results from this study could be used by the city and others to aid in lake management strategies. This report describes the hydrologic lake budget and each of the budget components, which are then used in the construction, calibration, and application of a regional groundwater flow model. The flow model is used to simulate the shallow groundwater flow system and the lake responses to increased and decreased precipitation under the current weir elevation and the proposed lowered weir elevation. Using the program groundwater flow analytic element model (GFLOW), a two-dimensional, steady-state model was constructed. The model was calibrated by matching target water levels and stream base flows by adjusting model input parameters. A sensitivity analysis was completed by adjusting the parameters within reasonable ranges and noting the magnitude of changes in model calibration targets. Potential effects of extended wet and dry periods (within historical ranges and published predicted ranges) were evaluated by adjusting precipitation, groundwater recharge, and discharge at Crystal Lake culvert outlet in the model and comparing the resulting simulated lake stage and water budgets to stages and water budgets from the calibrated model. Model results under average, wet, and dry conditions with a lowered weir of 1 foot at the Crystal Lake culvert outlet indicate minor changes in the simulated lake-water budgets and associated lake levels and groundwater elevation contours; however, simulations with an increased outflow at the Crystal Lake culvert outlet decreased the lake water levels by as much as 1.87 feet and also decreased the groundwater levels surrounding the lake by about 1–2 feet during average and wet conditions.

Illinois

A comparison of consumptive-use estimates derived from the simplified surface energy balance approach and indirect reporting methods

Recent advances in remote-sensing technology and Simplified Surface Energy Balance (SSEB) methods can provide accurate and repeatable estimates of evapotranspiration (ET) when used with satellite observations of irrigated lands. Estimates of ET are generally considered equivalent to consumptive use (CU) because they represent the part of applied irrigation water that is evaporated, transpired, or otherwise not available for immediate reuse. The U.S. Geological Survey compared ET estimates from SSEB methods to CU data collected for 1995 using indirect methods as part of the National Water Use Information Program (NWUIP). Ten-year (2000-2009) average ET estimates from SSEB methods were derived using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) 1-kilometer satellite land surface temperature and gridded weather datasets from the Global Data Assimilation System (GDAS). County-level CU estimates for 1995 were assembled and referenced to 1-kilometer grid cells to synchronize with the SSEB ET estimates. Both datasets were seasonally and spatially weighted to represent the irrigation season (June-September) and those lands that were identified in the county as irrigated. A strong relation (R2 greater than 0.7) was determined between NWUIP CU and SSEB ET data. Regionally, the relation is stronger in arid western states than in humid eastern states, and positive and negative biases are both present at state-level comparisons. SSEB ET estimates can play a major role in monitoring and updating county-based CU estimates by providing a quick and cost-effective method to detect major year-to-year changes at county levels, as well as providing a means to disaggregate county-based ET estimates to sub-county levels. More research is needed to identify the causes for differences in state-based relations.

Scientific Investigations Report

Questa baseline and pre-mining ground-water quality investigation 15.—Methods of phase II and III well installation and development and results of well logging, hydraulic testing, and water-level measurements in the Red River Valley, New Mexico, 2002-04

In April 2001, the U.S. Geological Survey and the New Mexico Environment Department began a cooperative study to infer the pre-mining ground-water chemistry at the Molycorp molybdenum mine site in the Red River Valley of north- central New Mexico. This report is one in a series of reports that can be used to determine pre-mining ground-water conditions at the mine site. Weathering of hydrothermally altered bedrock in the study area has resulted in steep, highly erosive, and sparsely vegetated scar areas that are clearly visible from the ground and in aerial photographs. Runoff from intense summer rainfall over tributary drainages containing scar areas can transport large quantities of sediment and form debris fans where these tributaries join the Red River. Twenty-nine observation wells were installed in three phases as part of this study in the Red River Valley and tributary drainages. Eight Phase II observation wells were drilled using an air-rotary/hammer rig. Three Phase II and 10 phase III small-diameter wells were installed using a direct-push rig. Lithologic logs were recorded for all eight Phase II drilled wells. Borehole geophysical logging (including natural gamma, induction, and single-detector neutron) was conducted in three Phase II wells. Aquifer tests conducted during 2003 to estimate the hydraulic properties of debris-flow and Red River alluvial deposits in and near Straight Creek included a flow-meter survey, slug tests, and a pumping test. Results of a flow-meter survey in well SC-7A indicated that about 77 percent of the water entered the well from a 10-foot-thick zone near the top of the screened interval and about 23 percent of the water entered the well from a 15-foot-thick zone near the bottom of the screened interval. Slug tests, performed in 11 wells during June 3-5, 2003, indicated that the mean and median estimated hydraulic conductivities for debris-flow deposits were 15.25 and 15.35 feet per day, respectively, for bedrock were 0.12 and 0.08 feet per day, respectively, and for mixed debris flow and Red River alluvium were 73-207 (estimated range) and 80 feet per day. In general, bedrock has the smallest hydraulic conductivity, debris-flow material has the next highest hydraulic conductivity, and mixed debris flow and Red River alluvium has the largest hydraulic conductivity. A pumping test conducted December 3-4, 2003, using well AWWT-1 as the pumped well, and wells AWWT-2, SC-5A, SC-5B, SC-7A, and SC-8A as observation wells, indicated estimated transmissivity of 12,000 to 34,000 feet squared per day and estimated hydraulic conductivity of 230 to 340 feet per day. Water-level measurements in wells SC-6A, SC-7A, SC-8A, and the Hottentot, Hansen, and La Bobita wells show that water levels typically rose rapidly during melting of the winter snowpack in the springtime and then generally declined during the rest of the year. The water-level rise in response to spring snowmelt occurred earlier and was smaller at larger distances from the Red River. Differences between the stage in the Red River and water levels in wells SC-8A and SC-9A, and the absence of water in well SC-9A at the time of well completion, indicate that the Red River has a poor hydraulic connection to the underlying ground-water system and the surface-water system is perched above the ground-water system at this site. Water levels in Phase III wells indicate that the Red River and the shallow ground-water system are connected hydraulically from near wells 4-1D and 4-1S downstream to near wells 2-1 and 2-2 but are poorly connected near the La Bobita well and well 1.

New Mexico

Regionalized equations for bankfull-discharge and channel characteristics of streams in New York State—Hydrologic Region 5 in central New York

Equations that relate drainage area to bankfull discharge and channel dimensions (width, depth, and cross-sectional area) at gaged sites are needed to define bankfull discharge and channel dimensions at ungaged sites and to provide information for the design of stream-restoration projects. Such equations are most accurate if derived from streams within an area of uniform hydrologic, climatic, and physiographic conditions and applied only within that region. A study to develop equations to predict bankfull data for ungaged streams in New York established eight regions that coincided with previously defined hydrologic regions. This report presents drainage areas and bankfull characteristics (discharge and channel dimensions) for streams in central New York (Region 5) selected for this pilot study. Stream-survey data and discharge records from seven active (currently gaged) sites and nine inactive (discontinued gaged) sites were used in regression analyses to relate size of drainage area to bankfull discharge and bankfull channel width, depth, and cross-sectional area. The resulting equations are: (1) bankfull discharge, in cubic feet per second = 45.3*(drainage area, in square miles) 0.856 ; (2) bankfull channel width, in feet = 13.5*(drainage area, in square miles) 0.449 ; (3) bankfull channel depth, in feet = 0.801*(drainage area, in square miles) 0.373 ; and (4) bankfull channel cross-sectional area, in square feet = 10.8*(drainage area, in square miles) 0.823 . The high correlation coefficients (R 2 ) for these four equations (0.96, 0.92, 0.91, 0.98, respectively) indicate that much of the variation in the variables is explained by the size of the drainage area. Recurrence intervals for the estimated bankfull discharge of each stream ranged from 1.11 to 3.40 years; the mean recurrence interval was 1.51 years. The 16 surveyed streams were classified by Rosgen stream type; most were mainly C-type reaches, with occasional B- and F-type reaches. The Region 5 equation was compared with equations developed for six other large areas in the Northeast. The major differences among results indicate a need to refine equations so they can be applied by water-resources managers to local planning and design efforts.

Scientific Investigations Report

Hydrogeologic characterization of the Yucaipa groundwater subbasin

Introduction Water management in the Santa Ana River watershed in San Bernardino and Riverside Counties in southern California (fig. A1) is complex with various water purveyors navigating geographic, geologic, hydrologic, and political challenges to provide a reliable water supply to stakeholders. As the population has increased throughout southern California, so has the demand for water. The Yucaipa groundwater subbasin (hereafter referred to as “Yucaipa subbasin”), one of nine groundwater subbasins in what the California Department of Water Resources (DWR) refers to as the Upper Santa Ana Valley groundwater basin (California Department of Water Resources, 2016; fig. A1; the DWR naming convention is used within this report), is no exception; steady population growth since the 1940s and changes in water use have forced local water purveyors to regularly adapt their water infrastructure. Water demands within the Yucaipa subbasin have historically been supplied by groundwater, but water imported via the California State Water Project has augmented the total water supply through direct use and through anthropogenic recharge at the Wilson Creek and Oak Glen Creek spreading basins since 2002. Overall demand for groundwater continues to rise, and local water managers are concerned that despite the influx of imported water, groundwater levels may decline to a point where producing water will be uneconomical, severely limiting the ability of local agencies to meet water-supply demand. To better understand the hydrogeology and water resources in the Yucaipa subbasin, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) initiated a study in cooperation with the San Bernardino Valley Municipal Water District (SBVMWD) to characterize and model the hydrologic system of the Yucaipa subbasin and the surrounding Yucaipa Valley watershed (YVW; fig. A2). To gain this comprehensive understanding, a three-dimensional (3D) hydrogeologic framework model (HFM; Cromwell and Matti, 2022) was constructed to quantify the structure and extent of hydrogeologic units in the YVW; the hydrologic system was conceptualized and quantified (described in chapter A); and the Yucaipa Integrated Hydrological Model (YIHM; described in chapter B ) was developed to simulate the integrated surface-water and aquifer systems, including natural and anthropogenic recharge and discharge throughout the study area during 1947–2014.

Scientific Investigations Report

Hydrogeologic framework, hydrology, and refined conceptual model of groundwater flow for Coastal Plain aquifers at the Standard Chlorine of Delaware, Inc. Superfund Site, New Castle County, Delaware, 2005-12

From 1966 to 2002, activities at the Standard Chlorine of Delaware chemical facility in New Castle County, Delaware resulted in the contamination of groundwater, soils, and wetland sediment. In 2005, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in partnership with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Region 3, and the Delaware Department of Natural Resources and Environmental Control began a multi-year investigation of the hydrogeologic framework and hydrology of the confined aquifer system. The goals of the ongoing study at the site (the Potomac Aquifer Study) are to determine the hydraulic connection between the Columbia and Potomac aquifers, determine the direction of groundwater flow in the Potomac aquifer, and identify factors affecting the fate of contaminated groundwater. This report describes progress made towards these goals based on available data collected through September 2012. The regional hydrogeologic framework indicates that the site is underlain by Coastal Plain sediments of the Columbia, Merchantville, and Potomac Formations. Two primary aquifers underlying the site, the Columbia and the upper Potomac, are separated by the Merchantville Formation confining unit. Local groundwater flow in the surficial (Columbia) aquifer is controlled by topography and generally flows northward and discharges to nearby surface water. Regional flow within the Potomac aquifer is towards the southeast, and is strongly influenced by major water withdrawals locally. Previous investigations at the site indicated that contaminants, primarily benzene and chlorinated benzene compounds, were present in the Columbia aquifer in most locations; however, there were only limited detections in the upper Potomac aquifer as of 2004. From 2005 through 2012, the USGS designed a monitoring network, assisted with exploratory drilling, collected data at monitoring wells, conducted geophysical surveys, evaluated water-level responses in wells during pumping of a production well, and evaluated major aquifer withdrawals. Data collected through these efforts were used to refine the local conceptual flow system. The refined conceptual flow system for the site includes: (a) identification of gaps in confining units in the study area, (b) identification and correlation of multiple water-bearing sand intervals within the upper Potomac Formation, (c) connections between groundwater and surface water, (d) connections between shallow and deeper groundwater, (e) new water-level (or potentiometric surface) maps and inferred flow directions, and (f) identification of major local pumping well influences. The implications of the revised conceptual flow system on the occurrence and movement of site contaminants are that the resulting detection of contaminants in the upper Potomac aquifer at specific well locations can be attributed primarily to either advective lateral transport, direct vertical contaminant transport, or a combination of vertical and lateral movement resulting from changes in water withdrawal rates over time.

Delaware

Potentiometric surfaces (2013, 2015), groundwater quality (2010–15), and water-level changes (2011–13, 2013–15) in the Sparta-Memphis aquifer in Arkansas

The Sparta-Memphis aquifer, present across much of eastern Arkansas, is the second most used groundwater resource in the State, with the Mississippi River Valley alluvial aquifer being the primary groundwater resource. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with Arkansas Department of Agriculture-Natural Resources Division, Arkansas Geological Survey, Natural Resources Conservation Service, Union County Water Conservation Board, and the Union County Conservation District, collects groundwater data across the Sparta-Memphis aquifer extent in Arkansas. This report presents water-level data for measurements conducted during two time periods, January–May 2013 and January–June 2015, and discusses water-level altitude changes for the 2011–13 and 2013–15 periods in the Sparta-Memphis aquifer. Accompanying water-level data in this report include groundwater-quality data for the period 2010–15 in the Sparta-Memphis aquifer. Groundwater data can guide ongoing and future groundwater-monitoring efforts and inform management of the aquifers in Arkansas. Water levels measured at 306 wells from January to May 2013 and 273 wells from January to June 2015 are graphically presented as potentiometric-surface maps. Measurements from 2011, 2013, and 2015 were used in the construction of 2011–13 and 2013–15 water-level change maps. Select long-term hydrographs are included in the report to illustrate water-level changes at the local scale. Water-level data show the influence of climate, pumping, and conservation and management efforts on groundwater levels. With respect to climate, the study area experienced extreme drought conditions between January 2011 and December 2012. The proximate effects of drought—increased evapotranspiration, decreased recharge, and increased irrigation needs—resulted in water-level declines that were particularly notable in the northern and central portions of the study area. Groundwater sampled in 2010–15 from 148 wells completed in the Sparta-Memphis aquifer was analyzed for specific conductance, pH, chloride (Cl) concentration, and bromide (Br) concentration. In 2015, groundwater-quality data from 103 wells completed in the Sparta-Memphis aquifer had a median specific conductance of 356 microsiemens per centimeter at 25 degrees Celsius and a median Cl concentration of 9.5 milligrams per liter (mg/L). The data show two areas of higher Cl (greater than 10 mg/L) and higher Br (greater than 0.5 mg/L) concentrations in Union, Calhoun, and Bradley Counties in southern Arkansas and Monroe and Phillips Counties in eastern-central Arkansas. A Cl and Br mixing model indicates the two regions of wells may have different sources of higher salinity. In the greater Union County area, water in most wells may be a mixture of recharge or precipitation and higher salinity groundwater from the Nacatoch aquifer. Water in wells in eastern-central Arkansas may be sourced from aquifers having a higher Cl concentration (and thus, also a higher Cl-to-Br ratio).

Arkansas

Geology and undiscovered resource assessment of the potash-bearing, Middle Devonian (Givetian), Prairie Evaporite, Elk Point Basin, Canada and United States

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) assessed undiscovered potash resources in the Elk Point Basin in Canada and the United States as part of a global mineral resource assessment. The Elk Point Basin is a large, Middle Devonian (Givetian) intracratonic evaporite basin covering approximately 1,200,000 square kilometers (km 2 ) and filled mainly with marine evaporite and minor clastic sedimentary rocks that contain stratabound potash-bearing salt. The potash-bearing salt is concentrated in four stratigraphic members (Patience Lake, Belle Plaine, White Bear, and Esterhazy) in the upper 100 meters (m) of the Prairie Evaporite and are separated by beds of halite (NaCl) that contain lesser—presently non-economic—amounts of sylvite (KCl) and carnallite (KMgCl 3 ·6H 2 O). The principal ore-bearing salt contains mainly sylvite. Four permissive tracts were defined that permit the presence of undiscovered stratabound potash (both sylvite- and carnallite-bearing salt) using geological criteria. Permissive tracts are defined by the spatial extent of each stratigraphic member that is at least 1 m thick, are less than 3 kilometers (km) from the surface, contain at least 4 percent equivalent potassium oxide (K 2 O), and contain the currently known resources. The permissive tracts include known potash deposits and potash occurrences as wells or mines not in production and show where undiscovered potash resources may be present. Well data are used to define the extent, thickness, average K 2 O equivalent grades, and volumes of each member. Data were supplied by the Saskatchewan Geological Survey or were obtained from published National Instrument (NI) 43-101 technical reports and other published reports, such as annual 10-K reports or news releases. The Elk Point Basin is the world’s largest source of potash, producing 23.0 million metric tons (Mt) of potassium chloride (KCl) (the equivalent of about 14.4 Mt of K 2 O) in 2018. In terms of global importance, the Elk Point Basin may contain 40 to greater than 50 percent of the world’s potash resources. Since 1962, potash companies have mined more than 1.5 trillion metric tons of ore containing 605 Mt of KCl (the equivalent of about 380 Mt of K 2 O). The total value of the ore produced through 2018 is on the order of $70 trillion (CAD). Potash is currently produced from eight conventional and three underground solution mines at depths ranging from 900 m to nearly 1,800 m. Estimates of the amount of potash in the Elk Point Basin vary considerably and the data and methods used in those estimations are not well documented. Known potash resources are approximately 99 billion metric tons (Bt) of ore containing 22 Bt of K 2 O equivalent. As a result of new mine openings and increased production capacity at existing mines, the total production capacity of mines in the Elk Point Basin has increased significantly (to about 32.8 Mt of KCl or 22.8 Mt of K 2 O equivalent per year). Additional production capacity of about 31 Mt of KCl (or 17 Mt of K 2 O equivalent) per year could be realized over the next decade if several current (as of 2019) exploration and development projects reach production status. Stratabound potash-bearing salt of the Prairie Evaporite presently underlies a total area of about 188,000 km 2 and has a total volume of about 2,690 cubic kilometers (km 3 ). Post-depositional solution processes considerably modified the mineralogy and presence of the potash-bearing salt. These changes had a profound effect on the volume and grade of potash resources that remained in the Prairie Evaporite and are a major consideration of exploration and mining operations as well as in this assessment of undiscovered potash resources. This USGS assessment includes the locations and possible amounts of undiscovered potash resources in the Prairie Evaporite. Volumes for each stratigraphic member were computed using member thicknesses and areal extent modified by actual, estimated geologic loss owing to salt dissolution and extraction ratios, as well as estimated distribution of carnallite and sylvite. Both sylvite- and carnallite-bearing salts were assessed for potash in this study. The assessment uses modern published grade and tonnage data. The amount of undiscovered potash is estimated by using Monte Carlo simulations to combine volume estimates of the potash-bearing members with probability distributions for average grade and bulk density. Mean potash grades (expressed as percentage of K 2 O equivalent) calculated using drill core analyses are 17.76 for the Patience Lake Member, 15.98 for the Belle Plaine Member, 10.66 for the White Bear Member, and 15.30 for the Esterhazy Member. Geologic losses reported as extraction ratios during mining may range from 27.5 to 41.6 percent and are dependent on mining method and local geologic conditions. The assessment determined that mean estimated undiscovered K 2 O equivalent resources for the Patience Lake, Belle Plaine, White Bear, and Esterhazy Members are 340, 220, 34, and 190 Bt, respectively, and estimated a total mean of 790 Bt for the entire Prairie Evaporite above a depth of 3 km. The total mineralized rock tonnage is estimated to be about 5,000 Bt. Most of the assessed potash is located within Saskatchewan with lesser amounts in Alberta and Manitoba as well as Montana and North Dakota within the United States. Although carnallite is mined for potash in Europe, it has historically been avoided in mining plans for potash-producing companies in Saskatchewan because of mining, processing, and grade considerations. Carnallite-rich salt is locally present in concentrations and volumes that could be a significant resource of magnesium chloride (MgCl 2 ) obtained as a byproduct of processing the carnallite for potash. Previously estimated reserves (not NI 43-101 compliant) of mineralized material from 1955 to 2019 are 695 Mt at 22.1 percent MgCl 2 . The total amount of K 2 O equivalent as carnallite was estimated during this USGS assessment to be about 120 Bt (or 180 Bt KCl). With uncertainties in defining the areal extent of carnallite in each of the potash-bearing members, the amount of MgCl 2 as carnallite in the Elk Point Basin could be approximately 180 Bt.

Elk Point basin

Hydrogeologic framework, groundwater movement, and water budget in the Chimacum Creek basin and vicinity, Jefferson County, Washington

This report presents information used to characterize the groundwater flow system in the Chimacum Creek basin. It includes descriptions of the geology and hydrogeologic framework; groundwater recharge and discharge; groundwater levels and flow directions; seasonal fluctuations in groundwater level; interactions between aquifers and the surface-water system; and a groundwater budget. The study area covers 124 square miles in northeastern Jefferson County, Washington, and includes the Chimacum Creek basin, which drains an area of about 37 square miles. The area is underlain by a north-thickening sequence of unconsolidated glacial and interglacial deposits that overlie sedimentary and igneous bedrock units that crop out along the margins and western interior of the study area. Six hydrogeologic units consisting of unconsolidated aquifers and confining units, along with an underlying bedrock unit, were identified. A surficial hydrogeologic map was developed and used with well information from 187 drillers' logs to construct 4 hydrogeologic sections, and maps showing the extent and thickness of the units. Natural recharge was estimated using precipitation-recharge relation regression equations developed for western Washington, and estimates were calculated for return flow from data on domestic indoor and outdoor use and irrigated agriculture. Results from synoptic streamflow measurements and water table elevations determined from monthly measurements at monitoring wells are presented and compared with those from a study conducted during 2002-03. A water budget was calculated comprising long-term average recharge, domestic public-supply withdrawals and return flow, self-supplied domestic withdrawals and return flow, and irrigated agricultural withdrawals and return flow.

Washington

Developing fluvial fish species distribution models across the conterminous United States—A framework for management and conservation

This report explains the steps and specific methods used to predict fluvial fish occurrences in their native ranges for the conterminous United States. In this study, boosted regression tree models predict distributions of 271 ecologically important fluvial fish species using relations between fish presence/absence and 22 natural and anthropogenic landscape variables. Models developed for the freshwater portions of the ranges for species represented 28 families. Cyprinidae was the family with the most species (87 of 271) modeled for this study, followed by Percidae (34) and Ictaluridae (17). Model predictive performance was evaluated using four metrics: area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, sensitivity, specificity, and True Skill Statistic, which are all from tenfold cross-validation results. The relative importance of the predictor variables in the boosted regression tree models was calculated and ranked for each species. The three strongest natural predictors of fish distributions were network catchment area, the mean annual air temperature of the local catchment, and the maximum elevation of the local catchment, while the three strongest anthropogenic predictors were downstream main stem dam density, distance to downstream main stem dam, and the percentage of pasture/hay land use area within network catchment boundaries. Study results showed 61 fish species were sensitive to climate variables, and 40 fish species were sensitive to anthropogenic stressors. The models developed in this study can be used to derive critical information regarding habitat protection priorities, anthropogenic threats, and potential effects of climate change on habitat suitability, aiding in efforts to conserve fluvial fishes now and into the future.

Conterminous United States

Areal distribution and concentration of contaminants of concern in surficial streambed and lakebed sediments, Lake St. Clair and tributaries, Michigan, 1990-2003

As part of the Lake St. Clair Regional Monitoring Project, the U.S. Geological Survey evaluated data collected from surficial streambed and lakebed sediments in the Lake Erie-Lake St. Clair drainages. This study incorporates data collected from 1990 through 2003 and focuses primarily on the U.S. part of the Lake St. Clair Basin, including Lake St. Clair, the St. Clair River, and tributaries to Lake St. Clair. Comparable data from the Canadian part of the study area are included where available. The data are compiled into 4 chemical classes and consist of 21 compounds. The data are compared to effects-based sediment-quality guidelines, where the Threshold Effect Level and Lowest Effect Level represent concentrations below which adverse effects on biota are not expected and the Probable Effect Level and Severe Effect Level represent concentrations above which adverse effects on biota are expected to be frequent. Maps in the report show the spatial distribution of the sampling locations and illustrate the concentrations relative to the selected sediment-quality guidelines. These maps indicate that sediment samples from certain areas routinely had contaminant concentrations greater than the Threshold Effect Concentration or Lowest Effect Level. These locations are the upper reach of the St. Clair River, the main stem and mouth of the Clinton River, Big Beaver Creek, Red Run, and Paint Creek. Maps also indicated areas that routinely contained sediment contaminant concentrations that were greater than the Probable Effect Concentration or Severe Effect Level. These locations include the upper reach of the St. Clair River, the main stem and mouth of the Clinton River, Red Run, within direct tributaries along Lake St. Clair and in marinas within the lake, and within the Clinton River headwaters in Oakland County. Although most samples collected within Lake St. Clair were from sites adjacent to the mouths of its tributaries, samples analyzed for trace-element concentrations were collected throughout the lake. The distribution of trace-element concentrations corresponded well with the results of a two-dimensional hydrodynamic model of flow patterns from the Clinton River into Lake St. Clair. The model was developed independent from the bed sediment analysis described in this report; yet it showed a zone of deposition for outflow from the Clinton River into Lake St. Clair that corresponded well with the spatial distribution of trace-element concentrations. This zone runs along the western shoreline of Lake St. Clair from L'Anse Creuse Bay to St. Clair Shores, Michigan and is reflected in the samples analyzed for mercury and cadmium. Statistical summaries of the concentration data are presented for most contaminants, and selected statistics are compared to effects-based sediment-quality guidelines. Summaries were not computed for dieldrin, chlordane, hexachlorocyclohexane, lindane, and mirex because insufficient data are available for these contaminants. A statistical comparison showed that the median concentration for hexachlorobenzene, anthracene, benz[ a ]anthracene, chrysene, and pyrene are greater than the Threshold Effect Concentration or Lowest Effect Level. Probable Effect Concentration Quotients provide a mechanism for comparing the concentrations of contaminant mixtures against effects-based biota data. Probable Effect Concentration Quotients were calculated for individual samples and compared to effects-based toxicity ranges. The toxicity-range categories used in this study were nontoxic (quotients < 0.5) and toxic (quotients > 0.5). Of the 546 individual samples for which Probable Effect Concentration Quotients were calculated, 469 (86 percent) were categorized as being nontoxic and 77 (14 percent) were categorized as being toxic. Bed-sediment samples with toxic Probable Effect Concentration Quotients were collected from Paint Creek, Galloway Creek, the main stem of the Clinton River, Big Beaver Creek, Red Run, Clinton River towards the mouth, Lake St. Clair along the western shore, and the St. Clair River near Sarnia.

Michigan