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At least 1,063 records · Page 59Linked to original sources

USGS1998

Limitations to mapping habitat use areas in changing landscapes using the Mahalanobis distance statistic

We tested the potential of a GIS mapping technique, using a resource selection model developed for black-tailed jackrabbits (Lepus californicus) and based on the Mahalanobis distance statistic, to track changes in shrubsteppe habitats in southwestern Idaho. If successful, the technique could be used to predict animal use areas, or those undergoing change, in different regions from the same selection function and variables without additional sampling. We determined the multivariate mean vector of 7 GIS variables that described habitats used by jackrabbits. We then ranked the similarity of all cells in the GIS coverage from their Mahalanobis distance to the mean habitat vector. The resulting map accurately depicted areas where we sighted jackrabbits on verification surveys. We then simulated an increase in shrublands (which are important habitats). Contrary to expectation, the new configurations were classified as lower similarity relative to the original mean habitat vector. Because the selection function is based on a unimodal mean, any deviation, even if biologically positive, creates larger Malanobis distances and lower similarity values. We recommend the Mahalanobis distance technique for mapping animal use areas when animals are distributed optimally, the landscape is well-sampled to determine the mean habitat vector, and distributions of the habitat variables does not change.

Journal of Agricultural, Biological, and Environme↗

USGS1968

Sedimentary features of the Blackhawk formation (Cretaceous) at Sunnyside, Carbon County, Utah

The Blackhawk Formation at Sunnyside, Utah, was deposited along the western margin of the Western Interior Cretaceous sea during southeastward withdrawal of the sea. Sand was the dominant type of land-derived sediment deposited in the Sunnyside district during the regressive phases. Sand bodies prograded seaward in response to changing sediment supply from a source west of Sunnyside. Where conditions were favorable for the accumulation of vegetable material, peat deposits formed and were later changed to bituminous Coal by diagenesis. Studies of the coal bed show that the coals were formed from accumulation of small, low-growing plants and plant debris that was transported into the area of accumulation. Remains of large plants in the coals are rare. Trace fossils, which are tracks, trails and burrows formed by organisms and preserved in the rock, are extremely abundant in the Blackhawk rocks. These biogenic sedimentary structures are common in Cretaceous deposits throughout the western United States. Trace fossil distribution in the rocks is controlled by the depositional environment preferred by their creators. A study of the trace fossils of a. locality allows a more precise determination of the conditions during deposition of the sediments. Water depth, bottom conditions, salinity, current velocity and amount of suspended nutrients in the water are some of the environmental factors that may be reconstructed by studying trace fossils. The Blackhawk Formation at Sunnyside comprises the members, the Kenilworth Member and the Sunnyside Member. Field studies show that the formation may be further subdivided in the Sunnyside district., according to the precepts of units of mappable thickness and similar lithologic characteristics. The Blackhawk pinches out eastward and north. ward into the Mancos Shale, and names for submembers become meaningless. Names are of value in the region of interest, however, because of the prominence of the named units. Coal mining is the main industry of the Book Cliffs region. Mines of the Sunnyside district are plagued by coal mine bumps, which are sudden, catastrophic releases of stress in the coal. Bumps cause loss of life, property age, and loss of profit to mining companies. Bumps occur when shear stress built up in the coal exceeds the shear Strength of the coal. Differential overburden pressure, faulting and tectonic activity, and lithology and structure of roof rocks are factors which influence bumps. Petroleum and natural gas (methane), which occur locally in pockets in the roof rocks above coal beds, may be diagenetic products of organic-rich sediments.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2026

Investigating hydrologic alteration under historical and future scenarios in the Mobile River and Perdido River basins using the cubist algorithm

This study investigates the impacts of human activities and climate variability on hydrologic alterations in the Mobile River and Perdido River Basins of Alabama. The research uses a machine learning approach, specifically cubist models, to quantify and predict changes in flow duration curves (FDCs) under both historical (1980–2009) and future climate scenarios. Future climate projections include the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) and the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP2 4.5 and SSP5 8.5), evaluated for two future periods: 1980–2069 and 1980–2099. The models incorporate a wide range of covariates, including basin geomorphology, aquifer characteristics, land cover, water storage, environmental factors, solar radiation, census data, and water use data. Under the baseline period (1980–2009), most level 12 hydrologic unit codes (HUC12s) in both basins showed alterations, with substantial differences observed between pre- and post-alteration FDCs. The model performance varied, with a Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiency between 0.91 and 0.95 for testing and between 0.98 and 0.99 for training during the baseline period. Future projections under the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios generally differed significantly from baseline conditions across all flow regimes ( p < 0.05). In contrast, SSP2 4.5 showed comparatively limited statistical significance, while SSP5 8.5 exhibited significant departures from baseline conditions across all flow regimes, reflecting the greater influence of high-emissions climate forcing on projected hydrologic alterations. Overall, the RCP scenarios projected more widespread statistically significant changes than the corresponding SSP scenarios at the same forcing level, particularly when comparing RCP4.5 with SSP2-4.5, while both RCP8.5 and SSP5-8.5 consistently indicated greater hydrologic alterations than their moderate-emissions counterparts. These findings highlight the importance of considering different flow regimes when assessing the impacts of climate variability on streamflow. This study contributes to the understanding of hydrologic alterations in the Mobile River and Perdido River Basins, providing insights for water resource management and ecological conservation efforts in the region.

Alabama↗

USGS2018

Fire, vegetation, and Holocene climate in a southeastern Tibetan lake: a multi-biomarker reconstruction from Paru Co

The fire history of the Tibetan Plateau over centennial to millennial timescales is not well known. Recent ice core studies reconstruct fire history over the past few decades but do not extend through the Holocene. Lacustrine sedimentary cores, however, can provide continuous records of local environmental change on millennial scales during the Holocene through the accumulation and preservation of specific organic molecular biomarkers. To reconstruct Holocene fire events and vegetation changes occurring on the southeastern Tibetan Plateau and the surrounding areas, we used a multi-proxy approach, investigating multiple biomarkers preserved in core sediment samples retrieved from Paru Co, a small lake located in the Nyainqentanglha Mountains (29°47′45.6′′ N, 92°21′07.2′′ E; 4845 m a.s.l.). Biomarkers include n -alkanes as indicators of vegetation, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) as combustion proxies, fecal sterols and stanols (FeSts) as indicators of the presence of humans or grazing animals, and finally monosaccharide anhydrides (MAs) as specific markers of vegetation burning processes. Insolation changes and the associated influence on the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) affect the vegetation distribution and fire types recorded in Paru Co throughout the Holocene. The early Holocene (10.7–7.5 cal kyr BP) n -alkane ratios demonstrate oscillations between grass and conifer communities, resulting in respective smouldering fires represented by levoglucosan peaks, and high-temperature fires represented by high-molecular-weight PAHs. Forest cover increases with a strengthened ISM, where coincident high levoglucosan to mannosan (L ∕ M) ratios are consistent with conifer burning. The decrease in the ISM at 4.2 cal kyr BP corresponds with the expansion of regional civilizations, although the lack of human FeSts above the method detection limits excludes local anthropogenic influence on fire and vegetation changes. The late Holocene is characterized by a relatively shallow lake surrounded by grassland, where all biomarkers other than PAHs display only minor variations. The sum of PAHs steadily increases throughout the late Holocene, suggesting a net increase in local to regional combustion that is separate from vegetation and climate change.

Climate of the Past↗

USGS2018

Factors influencing elk recruitment across ecotypes in the Western United States

Ungulates are key components in ecosystems and economically important for sport and subsistence harvest. Yet the relative importance of the effects of weather conditions, forage productivity, and carnivores on ungulates are not well understood. We examined changes in elk ( Cervus canadensis ) recruitment (indexed as age ratios) across 7 states and 3 ecotypes in the northwestern United States during 1989–2010, while considering the effects of predator richness, forage productivity, and precipitation. We found a broad‐scale, long‐term decrease in elk recruitment of 0.48 juveniles/100 adult females/year. Weather conditions (indexed as summer and winter precipitation) showed small, but measurable, influences on recruitment. Forage productivity on summer and winter ranges (indexed by normalized difference vegetation index [NDVI] metrics) had the strongest effect on elk recruitment relative to other factors. Relationships between forage productivity and recruitment varied seasonally and regionally. The productivity of winter habitat was more important in southern parts of the study area, whereas annual variation in productivity of summer habitat had more influence on recruitment in northern areas. Elk recruitment varied by up to 15 juveniles/100 adult females across the range of variation in forage productivity. Areas with more species of large carnivores had relatively low elk recruitment, presumably because of increased predation. Wolves ( Canis lupus ) were associated with a decrease of 5 juveniles/100 adult females, whereas grizzly bears ( Ursus arctos ) were associated with an additional decrease of 7 juveniles/100 adult females. Carnivore species can have a critical influence on ungulate recruitment because their influence rivals large ranges of variation in environmental conditions. A more pressing concern, however, stems from persistent broad‐scale decreases in recruitment across the distribution of elk in the northwestern United States, irrespective of carnivore richness. Our results suggest that wildlife managers interested in improving recruitment of elk consider the combined effects of habitat and predators. Efforts to manage summer and winter ranges to increase forage productivity may have a positive effect on recruitment.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗

USGS2016

Integrating subsistence practice and species distribution modeling: assessing invasive elodea’s potential impact on Native Alaskan subsistence of Chinook salmon and whitefish

Alaska has one of the most rapidly changing climates on earth and is experiencing an accelerated rate of human disturbance, including resource extraction and transportation infrastructure development. Combined, these factors increase the state’s vulnerability to biological invasion, which can have acute negative impacts on ecological integrity and subsistence practices. Of growing concern is the spread of Alaska’s first documented freshwater aquatic invasive plant Elodea spp. (elodea). In this study, we modeled the suitable habitat of elodea using global and state-specific species occurrence records and environmental variables, in concert with an ensemble of model algorithms. Furthermore, we sought to incorporate local subsistence concerns by using Native Alaskan knowledge and available statewide subsistence harvest data to assess the potential threat posed by elodea to Chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ) and whitefish ( Coregonus nelsonii ) subsistence. State models were applied to future climate (2040–2059) using five general circulation models best suited for Alaska. Model evaluations indicated that our results had moderate to strong predictability, with area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve values above 0.80 and classification accuracies ranging from 66 to 89 %. State models provided a more robust assessment of elodea habitat suitability. These ensembles revealed different levels of management concern statewide, based on the interaction of fish subsistence patterns, known spawning and rearing sites, and elodea habitat suitability, thus highlighting regions with additional need for targeted monitoring. Our results suggest that this approach can hold great utility for invasion risk assessments and better facilitate the inclusion of local stakeholder concerns in conservation planning and management.

Alaska↗

USGS2014

Using scenario planning to evaluate the impacts of climate change on wildlife populations and communities in the Florida Everglades

It is uncertain how climate change will impact hydrologic drivers of wildlife population dynamics in freshwater wetlands of the Florida Everglades, or how to accommodate this uncertainty in restoration decisions. Using projections of climate scenarios for the year 2060, we evaluated how several possible futures could affect wildlife populations (wading birds, fish, alligators, native apple snails, amphibians, threatened and invasive species) across the Everglades landscape and inform planning already underway. We used data collected from prior research and monitoring to parameterize our wildlife population models. Hydrologic data were simulated using a spatially explicit, regional-scale model. Our scenario evaluations show that expected changes in temperature, precipitation, and sea level could significantly alter important ecological functions. All of our wildlife indicators were negatively affected by scenarios with less rainfall and more evapotranspiration. Under such scenarios, habitat suitability was substantially reduced for iconic animals such as wading birds and alligators. Conversely, the increased rainfall scenario benefited aquatic prey productivity and apex predators. Cascading impacts on non-native species is speculative, but increasing temperatures could increase the time between cold events that currently limit expansion and abundance of non-native fishes, amphibians, and reptiles with natural ranges in the tropics. This scenario planning framework underscored the benefits of proceeding with Everglades restoration plans that capture and clean more freshwater with the potential to mitigate rainfall loss and postpone impacts of sea level rise.

Florida↗

USGS2006

Development of land segmentation, stream-reach network, and watersheds in support of hydrological simulation program: Fortran (HSPF) modeling, Chesapeake Bay watershed, and adjacent parts of Maryland, Delaware, and Virginia

The U.S. Geological Survey, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Chesapeake Bay Program Office, Interstate Commission on the Potomac River Basin, Maryland Department of the Environment, Virginia Department of Conservation and Recreation, Virginia Department of Environmental Quality, and the University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science are collaborating on the Chesapeake Bay Regional Watershed Model, using Hydrological Simulation Program - FORTRAN to simulate streamflow and concentrations and loads of nutrients and sediment to Chesapeake Bay. The model will be used to provide information for resource managers. In order to establish a framework for model simulation, digital spatial datasets were created defining the discretization of the model region (including the Chesapeake Bay watershed, as well as the adjacent parts of Maryland, Delaware, and Virginia outside the watershed) into land segments, a stream-reach network, and associated watersheds. Land segmentation was based on county boundaries represented by a 1:100,000-scale digital dataset. Fifty of the 254 counties and incorporated cities in the model region were divided on the basis of physiography and topography, producing a total of 309 land segments. The stream-reach network for the Chesapeake Bay watershed part of the model region was based on the U.S. Geological Survey Chesapeake Bay SPARROW (SPAtially Referenced Regressions On Watershed attributes) model stream-reach network. Because that network was created only for the Chesapeake Bay watershed, the rest of the model region uses a 1:500,000-scale stream-reach network. Streams with mean annual streamflow of less than 100 cubic feet per second were excluded based on attributes from the dataset. Additional changes were made to enhance the data and to allow for inclusion of stream reaches with monitoring data that were not part of the original network. Thirty-meter-resolution Digital Elevation Model data were used to delineate watersheds for each stream reach. State watershed boundaries replaced the Digital Elevation Model-derived watersheds where coincident. After a number of corrections, the watersheds were coded to indicate major and minor basin, mean annual streamflow, and each watershed's unique identifier as well as that of the downstream watershed. Land segments and watersheds were intersected to create land-watershed segments for the model.

Delaware, Maryland, Virginia↗

USGS2006

Proceedings of the U.S. Geological Survey Sixth Biennial Geographic Information Science Workshop, Denver, Colorado, April 24-28, 2006

The U.S. Geological Survey's (USGS) Sixth Biennial Geographic Information Science Workshop April 24 - 28, 2006, at the Denver Federal Center in Denver, Colorado, provides a unique opportunity for multi-disciplinary Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and associated scientific professionals to share, learn, present, and discuss a wide variety of geospatial-related topics. Information is exchanged through a series of plenary sessions, hands-on technical workshops, user and commercial vendor demonstrations, lecture and poster sessions, and specialty meetings. Workshop attendance is limited to Department of Interior (DOI) and USGS employees and contractors; however, plenary, hands-on, and lecture sessions have presenters from other Federal agencies, numerous commercial vendors, universities, and several consortia. Over 175 participants are expected to attend the Workshop. Several prominent speakers are featured at this Workshop. Monday evening Star Guest Speaker and National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Astronaut Captain Dominic Gorie will talk about his experiences as a veteran of three space flights and over 32 days in space, including the NASA Space Shuttle Radar Topography Mission that mapped more than 47 million miles of the Earth's land surface. Selected as an astronaut candidate by NASA in December 1994, Captain Gorie is currently Chief of the Astronaut Shuttle Branch. Monday evening also features a town hall meeting with Geographic Information Office (GIO) leaders Karen Siderelis, Kevin Gallagher, Bob Pierce, Steve Guptill, Mark DeMulder, John Mahoney, and Mark Negri, who will discuss changes and activities within the GIO in an open discussion format. Tuesday plenary sessions feature keynote speaker Dr. P. Patrick Leahy, Acting USGS Director. Dr. Leahy holds undergraduate and graduate degrees in geology (1968) and geophysics (1970) from Boston College. In 1979, he received his doctorate in geology from Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, where he specialized in regional ground-water studies and hydraulics. Dr. Leahy has been with the USGS since 1974, and has held various technical and managerial positions, including Associate Director for Geology and Chief of the National Water-Quality Assessment (NAWQA) Program. Dr. Leahy will be discussing a broad range of topics including Bureau accomplishments, initiatives, and budgets. The purpose of this proceedings volume is to serve as an activity reference for Workshop attendees as well as an archive of technical abstracts submitted, presented, and discussed at the Workshop. Author, co-author, and presenter names, affiliations, and contact information are listed with presentation titles along with submitted abstracts. Some hands-on sessions are offered twice. In these instances, abstracts submitted for publication are presented in the proceedings on both days they are offered. All acronyms used in these proceedings are explained in the text of each abstract. The term 'ArcGIS' refers to an integrated collection of GIS software products produced by Environmental Systems Research Institute, Inc. (ESRI).

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2000

Altitude, depth, and thickness of the Galena-Platteville Bedrock Unit in the subcrop area of Illinois and Wisconsin

The Galena-Platteville bedrock unit is a carbonate deposit of Ordovician age, composed of the Galena and Platteville Groups in Illinois and the Sinnippee Group in Wisconsin. It is the uppermost bedrock unit (subcrop) in most of northern Illinois and southern and eastern Wisconsin. The subcrop area is shaded in figure 1 of sheet 1 (Batten and others, 1997). The unit is predominately dolomite, with limestone in some areas, and has a weathered surface. Across the subcrop area, the hydrologic characteristics of the bedrock unit vary substantially. The bedrock unit may be either a confining unit or an aquifer. In areas where the Galena-Platteville bedrock unit is an aquifer, the unit is a dependable source of water for many private wells and some municipal-water-supply systems. Ground water in the Galena-Platteville bedrock aquifer is susceptible to contamination because the bedrock unit is near land surface in much of the study area, and the fractures in the unit allow rapid movement of water providing limited capacity to attenuate contaminants. The subcrop (study) area covers approximately 7,850 square miles in northern Illinois and Wisconsin. In the study area, volatile organic compounds and other contaminants have been detected in the aquifer at various sites (Mills, 1993; Kay and others, 1994). Many sources of contaminants, including landfills and industrial facilities, are known or suspected. In order to determine the possible effects of contamination on the ground-water supply, an understanding of the regional hydrogeologic framework of the Galena-Platteville bedrock unit is needed. Published and unpublished map and point data describing the geologic properties of the Galena-Platteville bedrock unit are available from many sources. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA), has selected and compiled a large portion of the available data to create computer data bases and maps. The objective of this effort is to compile and publish these data in a series of reports (U.S. Geological Survey Water-Resources Investigations Reports (WRIR) 974054-A, WRIR 97-4054-B, WRIR 97-4054-C). This is the third in that series of reports. The report describes the altitude, thickness, and depth from land surface of the subcrop area of the Galena-Platteville bedrock unit. The report series will enable investigators involved in site-specific studies within the subcrop area to understand the regional geologic framework of the unit and to find additional reference sources. This report consists of four sheets that show the altitude (sheet 1), depth from land surface (sheet 2), total thickness (sheet 3), and location of altitude data (sheet 4) of the lithologic units that constitute the Galena-Platteville bedrock unit within the subcrop area. The sheets also show major known geologic features within the Galena-Platteville study area in Illinois and Wisconsin. A geographic information system (GIS) was used to generate data layers (coverages) from point data and from published and unpublished contour maps at various scales and detail. Standard GIS procedures were used to change the coverages into the maps shown on the sheets presented in this report. A list of references for the data used to prepare the maps is provided.

Illinois, Wisconsin↗

USGS2014

Identifying sources of aeolian mineral dust: Present and past

Aeolian mineral dust is an important component of the Earth’s environmental systems, playing roles in the planetary radiation balance, as a source of fertilizer for biota in both terrestrial and marine realms and as an archive for understanding atmospheric circulation and paleoclimate in the geologic past. Crucial to understanding all of these roles of dust is the identification of dust sources. Here we review the methods used to identify dust sources active at present and in the past. Contemporary dust sources, produced by both glaciogenic and non-glaciogenic processes, can be readily identified by the use of Earth-orbiting satellites. These data show that present dust sources are concentrated in a global dust belt that encompasses large topographic basins in low-latitude arid and semiarid regions. Geomorphic studies indicate that specific point sources for dust in this zone include dry or ephemeral lakes, intermittent stream courses, dune fields, and some bedrock surfaces. Back-trajectory analyses are also used to identify dust sources, through modeling of wind fields and the movement of air parcels over periods of several days. Identification of dust sources from the past requires novel approaches that are part of the geologic toolbox of provenance studies. Identification of most dust sources of the past requires the use of physical, mineralogical, geochemical, and isotopic analyses of dust deposits. Physical properties include systematic spatial changes in dust deposit thickness and particle size away from a source. Mineralogy and geochemistry can pinpoint dust sources by clay mineral ratios and Sc-Th-La abundances, respectively. The most commonly used isotopic methods utilize isotopes of Nd, Sr, and Pb and have been applied extensively in dust archives of deep-sea cores, ice cores, and loess. All these methods have shown that dust sources have changed over time, with far more abundant dust supplies existing during glacial periods. Greater dust supplies in glacial periods are likely due to greater production of glaciogenic dust particles from expanded ice sheets and mountain glaciers, but could also include dust inputs from exposed continental and insular shelves now submerged. Future dust sources are difficult to assess, but will likely differ from those of the present because of global warming. Global warming could bring about shifts in dust sources by changes in degree or type of vegetation cover, changes in wind strength, and increases or decreases in the size of water bodies. A major uncertainty in assessing dust sources of the future is related to changes inhuman land use, which could affect land surface cover, particularly due to increased agricultural endeavors and water usage.

Book chapter↗

USGS2014

Dissolved-solids sources, loads, yields, and concentrations in streams of the conterminous United States

Recent studies have shown that excessive dissolved-solids concentrations in water can have adverse effects on the environment and on agricultural, domestic, municipal, and industrial water users. Such effects motivated the U.S. Geological Survey’s National Water Quality Assessment Program to develop a SPAtially-Referenced Regression on Watershed Attributes (SPARROW) model that has improved the understanding of sources, loads, yields, and concentrations of dissolved solids in streams of the conterminous United States. Using the SPARROW model, long-term mean annual dissolved-solids loads from 2,560 water-quality monitoring stations were statistically related to several spatial datasets that are surrogates for dissolved-solids sources and land-to-water delivery processes. Specifically, sources in the model included variables representing geologic materials, road deicers, urban lands, cultivated lands, and pasture lands. Transport of dissolved solids from these sources was modulated by land-to-water delivery variables that represent precipitation, streamflow, soil, vegetation, terrain, population, irrigation, and artificial drainage characteristics. Where appropriate, the load estimates, source variables, and transport variables were statistically adjusted to represent conditions for the base year 2000. The nonlinear least-squares estimated SPARROW model was used to predict long-term mean annual conditions for dissolved-solids sources, loads, yields, and concentrations in a digital hydrologic network representing nearly 66,000 stream reaches and their corresponding incremental catchments that drain the Nation. Nationwide, the predominant source of dissolved solids yielded from incremental catchments and delivered to local streams is geologic materials in 89 percent of the catchments, road deicers in 5 percent of the catchments, pasture lands in 3 percent of the catchments, urban lands in 2 percent of the catchments, and cultivated lands in 1 percent of the catchments. Whereas incremental catchments with dissolved solids that originated predominantly from geologic sources or from urban lands are found across much of the Nation, incremental catchments with dissolved solids yields that originated predominantly from road deicers are largely found in the Northeast, and incremental catchments with dissolved solids that originated predominantly from cultivated or pasture lands are largely found in the West. The total amount of dissolved solids delivered to the Nation’s streams is 271.9 million metric tons (Mt) annually, of which 194.2 million Mt (71.4%) come from geologic sources, 37.7 million Mt (13.9%) come from road deicers, 18.2 million Mt (6.7%) come from pasture lands, 13.9 million Mt (5.1%) come from urban lands, and 7.9 million Mt (2.9%) come from cultivated lands. Nationwide, the median incremental-catchment yield delivered to local streams is 26 metric tons per year per square kilometer [(Mt/yr)/km 2 ]. Ten percent of the incremental catchments yield less than 4 (Mt/yr)/km 2 , and 10 percent yield more than 90 (Mt/yr)/km 2 . Incremental-catchment yields greater than 50 (Mt/yr)/km 2 mostly occur along the northern part of the West Coast and in a crescent shaped band south of the Great Lakes. For example, the median incremental-catchment yield is 81 (Mt/yr)/km 2 for the Great Lakes, 78 (Mt/yr)/km 2 for the Ohio, and 74 (Mt/yr)/km 2 for the Upper Mississippi water-resources regions. Incremental-catchment yields less than 10 (Mt/yr)/km 2 mostly occur in a wide band across the arid lowland of the interior West that excludes areas along the coast and the extensive, higher mountain ranges. For example, the median incremental-catchment yield is 3 (Mt/yr)/km 2 for the Lower Colorado, 5 (Mt/yr)/km 2 for the Rio Grande, and 8 (Mt/yr)/km 2 for the Great Basin water-resources regions. Predicted incremental loads were cascaded down through the reach network, with loads accumulating from reach to reach. For most stream reaches, the entire incremental load of dissolved solids delivered to the reach was transported to either the ocean or to one of the large streams flowing along the U.S. international boundary without losses occurring along the way. The exceptions to this include streams in the southwestern part of the country, such as the Colorado River, Rio Grande, and streams of internally drained drainages in the Great Basin, where dissolved-solids loads decreased through streamflow diversion for off-stream use, or by infiltration through the streambed. Long-term mean annual flow-weighted concentrations were derived from the predicted accumulated-load and stream-discharge data. Widespread low concentrations, generally less than 100 milligrams per liter (mg/L), occur in many reaches of the New England, South Atlantic-Gulf, and Pacific Northwest water-resources regions as a result of moderate dissolved-solids yields and high runoff rates. Widespread moderate concentrations, generally between 100 and 500 mg/L, occur in many reaches of the Great Lakes, Ohio, and Upper Mississippi River water-resources regions. Whereas dissolved-solids yields are generally high in these regions, runoff rates are also high, which helps moderate concentrations in these regions. Widespread higher concentrations, generally greater than 500 mg/L, occur across a belt of reaches that extends almost continuously from Canada to Mexico in the Midwest, cutting through the Souris-Red-Rainy, Missouri, Arkansas-White-Red, Texas-Gulf, and Rio Grande water-resources regions. Although dissolved-solids yields are moderate to low in these areas, low runoff rates result in the high concentrations for these areas. In 12.6 percent of the Nation’s stream reaches, predicted concentrations of dissolved solids exceed 500 mg/L, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s secondary, nonenforceable drinking water standard. While this standard provides a metric for evaluating predicted concentrations in the context of drinking-water supplies, it should be noted that it only applies to drinking water actually served to customers by water utilities, and it does not apply to all stream reaches in the Nation nor does it apply during times when water is not being withdrawn for use. Exceedance of 500 mg/L is more pronounced in certain water-resources regions than others. For example, about half of the reaches in the Souris-Red-Rainy region have concentrations predicted to exceed 500 mg/L, and between 25 and 37 percent of the reaches in the Missouri, Arkansas-White-Red, Texas-Gulf, Rio Grande, and Lower Colorado regions are predicted to exceed 500 mg/L. Development of stream-load data for use in the SPARROW model also provided long-term temporal trend information in dissolved-solids concentrations at the monitoring stations for their period of record, which was constrained between 1980 and 2009. For the 2,560 monitoring stations used in this study, long-term trends in flow-adjusted dissolved-solids concentrations increased over time at 23 percent of the stations, decreased at 18 percent of the stations, and did not change over time at 59 percent of the stations. Long-term trends show a strong regional spatial pattern where from the western parts of the Great Plains to the West Coast, concentrations mostly either did not change or decreased over time, and from the eastern parts of the Great Plains to the East Coast, concentrations mostly either did not change or increased over time. Results from the trend analysis and from the SPARROW model indicate that, compared to monitoring stations with no trends or decreasing trends, stations with increasing trends are associated with a smaller percentage of the predicted dissolved-solids load originating from geologic sources, and a larger percentage originating from urban lands and road deicers. Conversely, compared to stations with increasing trends or no trends, stations with decreasing trends have a larger percentage of the predicted dissolved-solids load originating from geologic sources and a smaller percentage originating from urban lands and road deicers. Stations with decreasing trends also have larger percentages of predicted dissolved-solids load originating from cultivated lands and pasture lands, compared to stations with increasing trends or no trends.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2023

New indicators of ecological resilience and invasion resistance to support prioritization and management in the sagebrush biome, United States

Ecosystem transformations to altered or novel ecological states are accelerating across the globe. Indicators of ecological resilience to disturbance and resistance to invasion can aid in assessing risks and prioritizing areas for conservation and restoration. The sagebrush biome encompasses parts of 11 western states and is experiencing rapid transformations due to human population growth, invasive species, altered disturbance regimes, and climate change. We built on prior use of static soil moisture and temperature regimes to develop new, ecologically relevant and climate responsive indicators of both resilience and resistance. Our new indicators were based on climate and soil water availability variables derived from process-based ecohydrological models that allow predictions of future conditions. We asked: (1) Which variables best indicate resilience and resistance? (2) What are the relationships among the indicator variables and resilience and resistance categories? (3) How do patterns of resilience and resistance vary across the area? We assembled a large database ( n = 24,045) of vegetation sample plots from regional monitoring programs and derived multiple climate and soil water availability variables for each plot from ecohydrological simulations. We used USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service National Soils Survey Information, Ecological Site Descriptions, and expert knowledge to develop and assign ecological types and resilience and resistance categories to each plot. We used random forest models to derive a set of 19 climate and water availability variables that best predicted resilience and resistance categories. Our models had relatively high multiclass accuracy (80% for resilience; 75% for resistance). Top indicator variables for both resilience and resistance included mean temperature, coldest month temperature, climatic water deficit, and summer and driest month precipitation. Variable relationships and patterns differed among ecoregions but reflected environmental gradients; low resilience and resistance were indicated by warm and dry conditions with high climatic water deficits, and moderately high to high resilience and resistance were characterized by cooler and moister conditions with low climatic water deficits. The new, ecologically-relevant indicators provide information on the vulnerability of resources and likely success of management actions, and can be used to develop new approaches and tools for prioritizing areas for conservation and restoration actions.

Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution↗

USGS2024

Widespread chemical dilution of streams continues as long-term effects of acidic deposition slowly reverse

Studies of recovery from acidic deposition have focused on reversal of acidification and its associated effects, but as recovery proceeds slowly, chemical dilution of surface waters is emerging as a key factor in the recovery process that has significant chemical and biological implications. This investigation uses long-term chemical records from 130 streams in the Adirondack region of New York, USA, to evaluate the role of ongoing decreases in conductance, an index of dilution, in the recovery of these streams. Stream chemistry data spanning up to 40 years (1980s–2022) showed that acid-neutralizing capacity has increased in 92% of randomly selected streams, but that harmful levels of acidification still occur in 37% of these streams. Conductance and Ca 2+ concentrations decreased in 79% of streams, and SO 4 2− concentrations in streams continued to show strong decreases but remained several times higher than concentrations in precipitation. These changes were ongoing through 2022 even though acidic deposition levels were approaching those estimated for pre-industrialization. Further dilution is continuing through ongoing decreases in stream SO 4 2− . Nevertheless, Ca 2+ continued to be leached from soils by SO 4 2− , organic acids and NO 3 − , limiting the replenishment of available soil Ca 2+ , a prerequisite to stem further dilution of stream water.

Environmental Pollution↗

USGS2020

Accounting for land in the United States: Integrating physical land cover, land use, and monetary valuation

Land plays a critical role in both economic and environmental accounting. As an asset, it occupies a unique position at the intersection of the System of National Accounts (SNA), the System of Environmental-Economic Accounting Central Framework (SEEA-CF), and (as a spatial unit) SEEA Experimental Ecosystem Accounting (SEEA-EEA), making land a natural starting point for developing natural capital accounts more generally. We develop a pilot set of national and subnational land accounts for the United States that are consistent with the SEEA-CF and SNA principles, quantified in both physical and monetary terms. The physical accounts utilize detailed land use (National Land Use Database) and land cover (National Land Cover Database) datasets, which provide insights into how land cover in the U.S. is changing over time. To provide aggregate estimates of land values, we use a hedonic approach that exploits fine-grain microdata (“big data” from Zillow) that contains detailed information from hundreds of millions of property transactions and their corresponding physical characteristics covering much of the U.S. Methodologically, we show that it is feasible to produce monetary accounts for land that can be directly linked to and integrated with physical land cover/use. Overall, U.S. land cover has shown declines in forests, cropland, and pasture with increases in barren, scrub/shrub, and developed classes, which are particularly concentrated in the U.S. Southeast. Nominal land values in the U.S. fell about 28% ($7 trillion) from the boom to bust periods in the prior decade, albeit with substantial regional variation, and have subsequently experienced a nearly full recovery in recent years. We estimate private land in the contiguous 48 states to be worth approximately $25.1 trillion in 2016.

Ecosystem Services↗

USGS2007

Calibrating a forest landscape model to simulate frequent fire in Mediterranean-type shrublands

In Mediterranean-type ecosystems (MTEs), fire disturbance influences the distribution of most plant communities, and altered fire regimes may be more important than climate factors in shaping future MTE vegetation dynamics. Models that simulate the high-frequency fire and post-fire response strategies characteristic of these regions will be important tools for evaluating potential landscape change scenarios. However, few existing models have been designed to simulate these properties over long time frames and broad spatial scales. We refined a landscape disturbance and succession (LANDIS) model to operate on an annual time step and to simulate altered fire regimes in a southern California Mediterranean landscape. After developing a comprehensive set of spatial and non-spatial variables and parameters, we calibrated the model to simulate very high fire frequencies and evaluated the simulations under several parameter scenarios representing hypotheses about system dynamics. The goal was to ensure that observed model behavior would simulate the specified fire regime parameters, and that the predictions were reasonable based on current understanding of community dynamics in the region. After calibration, the two dominant plant functional types responded realistically to different fire regime scenarios. Therefore, this model offers a new alternative for simulating altered fire regimes in MTE landscapes. ?? 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Environmental Modelling and Software↗

USGS2012

Heterogeneous detection probabilities for imperiled Missouri River fishes: implications for large-river monitoring programs

Occupancy modeling was used to determine (1) if detection probabilities (p) for 7 regionally imperiled Missouri River fishes (Scaphirhynchus albus, Scaphirhynchus platorynchus, Cycleptus elongatus, Sander canadensis, Macrhybopsis aestivalis, Macrhybopsis gelida, and Macrhybopsis meeki) differed among gear types (i.e. stationary gill nets, drifted trammel nets, and otter trawls), and (2) how detection probabilities were affected by habitat (i.e. pool, bar, and open water), longitudinal position (five 189 to 367 rkm long segments), sampling year (2003 to 2006), and season (July 1 to October 30 and October 31 to June 30). Adult, large-bodied fishes were best detected with gill nets (p: 0.02–0.74), but most juvenile large-bodied and all small-bodied species were best detected with otter trawls (p: 0.02–0.58). Trammel nets may be a redundant sampling gear for imperiled fishes in the lower Missouri River because most species had greater detection probabilities with gill nets or otter trawls. Detection probabilities varied with river segment for S. platorynchus, C. elongatus, and all small-bodied fishes, suggesting that changes in habitat influenced gear efficiency or abundance changes among river segments. Detection probabilities varied by habitat for adult S. albus and S. canadensis, year for juvenile S. albus, C. elongatus, and S. canadensis, and season for adult S. albus. Concentrating sampling effort on gears with the greatest detection probabilities may increase species detections to better monitor a population's response to environmental change and the effects of management actions on large-river fishes.

Endangered Species Research↗

USGS2012

Effects of urban development on stream ecosystems in nine metropolitan study areas across the United States

Urban development is an important agent of environmental change in the United States. The urban footprint on the American landscape has expanded during a century and a half of almost continuous development. Eighty percent of Americans now live in metropolitan areas, and the advantages and challenges of living in these developed areas—convenience, congestion, employment, pollution—are part of the day-to-day realities of most Americans. Nowhere are the environmental changes associated with urban development more evident than in urban streams. Contaminants, habitat destruction, and increasing streamflow flashiness resulting from urban development have been associated with the disruption of biological communities, particularly the loss of sensitive aquatic species. Every stream is connected downstream to larger water bodies, including rivers, reservoirs, and ultimately coastal waters. Inputs of chemical contaminants or sediments at any point along the stream can cause degradation downstream with adverse effects on biological communities and on economically valuable resources, such as fisheries and tourism. In response to general concerns about the degradation of urban streams, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) conducted a national-scale, scientific investigation of the effects of urban development on stream ecosystems. Nine metropolitan study areas of the United States were selected—Portland, Oregon; Salt Lake City, Utah; Birmingham, Alabama; Atlanta, Georgia; Raleigh, North Carolina; Boston, Massachusetts; Denver, Colorado; Dallas, Texas; and Milwaukee, Wisconsin. The studies were conducted in Salt Lake City, Birmingham, and Boston in 1999–2000; in Atlanta, Raleigh, and Denver in 2002–2003; and in Portland, Dallas, and Milwaukee in 2003–2004. The comprehensive investigation of all nine studies focused on three broad questions of interest to decision makers: What are the primary effects of urban development on stream ecosystems? How do the effects of urban development on stream ecosystems vary regionally across the country? Which urban-related stressors are most closely linked to biological community degradation, and how can multiple stressors be managed to protect stream health as a watershed becomes increasingly urbanized?

Alabama;Colorado;Georgia;Massachusetts;North Carol↗