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At least 1,045 records · Page 58Linked to original sources

Managing an invasive corallimorph at Palmyra Atoll National Wildlife Refuge, Line Islands, Central Pacific

In 2007, a phase shift from corals to corallimorpharians (CM) centered around a shipwreck was documented at Palmyra Atoll, Line Islands. Subsequent surveys revealed CM to be overgrowing the reef benthos, including corals and coralline algae, potentially placing coral ecosystems in the atoll at risk. This prompted the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, the lead management agency of the atoll, to remove the shipwreck. Subsequent surveys showed reductions in CM around the ship impact site. We explain patterns of spread of the CM in terms of both life history and local currents and show with a pilot study that pulverized bleach may be an effective tool to eradicate CM on a local scale. If applied strategically, particularly in heavily infested (> 66% cover) areas, active intervention such as this could be an effective management tool to reduce CM impact on localized areas and decrease colonization rate of remaining reefs. This is the first documentation of the response of an invasive cnidarian to shipwreck removal. While this was a singular event in Palmyra, the spatial and temporal patterns of this invasion and the eradications lessons described herein, are useful for anticipating and controlling similar situations elsewhere.

Palmyra Atoll National Wildlife Refuge↗

Monitoring long-term changes of urban surface temperature using time-series land cover and remote sensing data across 50 major cities in the United States

The increase of developed land changes the Earth’s ecosystems and, in doing so, impacts the natural environment and further affects the services it provides to humans. Urban growth and associated land cover transitions alter the thermal and physical properties of the land surface, resulting in surface temperature change in urban areas. In this study, we integrated both land cover and surface temperature information to characterize surface temperature spatiotemporal variations using the recently available time series of Landsat land surface temperature and annual land change products. We analyzed over thirty-year trends of land surface temperature (LST) in urban and surrounding non-urban lands. We found that the transitions of different land cover types to urban affected urban LST trends differently, and further impacted the temporal trend of urban heat island intensity.

continental United States↗

Challenge theme 4: People in the Borderlands: Chapter 6 in United States-Mexican Borderlands: Facing tomorrow's challenges through USGS science

The management of shared resources in the United States–Mexican border region requires cooperation from the people of both countries to assess and understand their relation to the environment. Society is dependent on the long-term healthy functioning of ecosystems and their ability to supply food and raw materials. Likewise, resources and services obtained from nature could be used efficiently within the society. A more equitable distribution of costs and benefits related to goods and services can lead to fewer tensions and a higher quality of life for all the people in the Borderlands. Urban development, background contamination from mineral ore deposits, irrigation, sewage effluent, and even global climate change all have the potential to alter the stability of the fragile systems in the Borderlands (Brady and others, 2001, 2002; Norman, 2007, 2010; Gu and others, 2008; Norman, Gray, and others, 2008; Norman, Hirsch, and Ward, 2008; Norman, Callegary, and others, 2010; Norman, Huth, and others, 2010; Norman, Levick, and others, 2010; Norman, Tallent-Halsell, and others, 2010; Norman, Villarreal, and others 2012). Social efficiency means that because resources should be used where they are needed most, they should be distributed proportionally among human societies and individuals (Azar and others, 1996). Despite the critical role natural resources play in maintaining human and environmental health, current knowledge of the manner in which natural and human-caused forces interact to limit these resources—including their quality and quantity (such as through spatiotemporal changes in precipitation, evapotranspiration, pumping of groundwater, and release of contaminants)—is inadequate. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is trying to understand the relation between changing landscapes, changing demographics, and a changing climate in the Borderlands while the environmental, economic, and societal issues continue to be intertwined between the two nations.

United States-Mexico Borderlands↗

Inventory of Anchialine Pools in Hawaii's National Parks

BACKGROUND Anchialine (?near the sea?) pools are rare and localized brackish waters along coastal lava flows that exhibit tidal fluctuations without a surface connection with the ocean (Fig. 1). In Hawai`i, these pools were frequently excavated or otherwise modified by Hawaiians to serve as sources of drinking water, baths and fish ponds. National Parks in Hawai`i possess the full spectrum of pool types, from walled fish ponds to undisturbed pools in collapsed lava tubes, cracks and caves. Pools contain relatively rare and unique fauna threatened primarily by invasive species and habitat loss. In collaboration with the National Park Service?s Inventory and Monitoring Program, the U.S. Geological Survey?s Pacific Island Ecosystems Research Center undertook inventories of these unique ecosystems in two National Parks on the island of Hawai`i: Hawai`i Volcanoes National Park and Kaloko-Honokohau National Historical Park.

Fact Sheet↗

The Fort Collins Science Center

With a focus on biological research, the U.S. Geological Survey Fort Collins Science Center (FORT) develops and disseminates science-based information and tools to support natural resource decision-making. This brochure succinctly describes the integrated science capabilities, products, and services that the FORT science community offers across the disciplines of aquatic systems, ecosystem dynamics, information science, invasive species science, policy analysis and social science assistance, and trust species and habitats.

Colorado↗

Environmental impact of the Big Cypress Swamp jetport

Development of the proposed jetport and its attendant facilities will lead to land drainage and development for agriculture, industry, housing, transportation, and services in the Big Cypress Swamp which will inexorably destroy the south Florida ecosystem and this the Everglades National Park.

Florida↗

Power analysis of water quality of standing water bodies in the Pacific Island Network, 2009–2017

The National Park Service (NPS) Inventory and Monitoring Division (IMD) aims to provide data on park ecosystems' health to guide management decisions. Since 2007, NPS IMD has monitored water quality in marine areas, streams, anchialine pools, wetlands, and lakes in the Pacific Island Network (PACN) national parks. To maintain long-term monitoring program efficiency, protocols are reviewed and revised every 10 years based on trend analyses, including new power analyses for significant sampling regime changes. This report focuses on standing water bodies, evaluating statistical power across different sampling intensities to detect water quality trends and anomalies. It covers 10 areas with a varying number of sample stations. Data from 2009–2017 for nine water quality parameters were examined, and statistical power was assessed by using linear regression and Wilcoxon two-sample tests with 80% power and a Type I error rate of 0.05. Results show that higher sampling effort and larger effect sizes increase the power to detect changes, although power varies by parameter and site due to differences in mean and variance. The analysis results may be used to devise optimal sampling strategies, including balancing the number of sample sites and sampling frequency. Periodic evaluations and adaptive strategies are essential for maintaining statistical power and for the long-term management of the PACN water quality monitoring program, especially in the context of climate change.

Hawaii↗

Mapping karst groundwater flow paths and delineating recharge areas for Fern Cave, Alabama, through the use of dye tracing

Fern Cave in Jackson County, Alabama, is a 15.6-mile-long (25.1-kilometer) cave system, managed by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service and Southeastern Cave Conservancy, that has the second highest biodiversity of any cave in the southeastern United States. Groundwater in karst ecosystems is known to be susceptible to impacts from human-induced land-use activities in watersheds that contribute recharge to the groundwater system. To provide the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service with necessary baseline information on the groundwater flow system in Fern Cave, the U.S. Geological Survey and the Kentucky Geological Survey conducted a series of dye traces during 2019–21 to delineate the watershed recharging the cave system. The dye traces identified two separate streams that flow through the cave and a recharge area of 1.73 square miles (4.48 square kilometers) draining to the cave system. Current land use within the recharge area is dominated by deciduous forest with minimal additional land use types, indicating a low potential for undesirable effects to the cave by anthropogenic sources.

Alabama↗

Aboveground allometric models for freeze-affected black mangroves (Avicennia germinans): Equations for a climate sensitive mangrove-marsh ecotone

Across the globe, species distributions are changing in response to climate change and land use change. In parts of the southeastern United States, climate change is expected to result in the poleward range expansion of black mangroves ( Avicennia germinans ) at the expense of some salt marsh vegetation. The morphology of A. germinans at its northern range limit is more shrub-like than in tropical climes in part due to the aboveground structural damage and vigorous multi-stem regrowth triggered by extreme winter temperatures. In this study, we developed aboveground allometric equations for freeze-affected black mangroves which can be used to quantify: (1) total aboveground biomass; (2) leaf biomass; (3) stem plus branch biomass; and (4) leaf area. Plant volume (i.e., a combination of crown area and plant height) was selected as the optimal predictor of the four response variables. We expect that our simple measurements and equations can be adapted for use in other mangrove ecosystems located in abiotic settings that result in mangrove individuals with dwarf or shrub-like morphologies including oligotrophic and arid environments. Many important ecological functions and services are affected by changes in coastal wetland plant community structure and productivity including carbon storage, nutrient cycling, coastal protection, recreation, fish and avian habitat, and ecosystem response to sea level rise and extreme climatic events. Coastal scientists in the southeastern United States can use the identified allometric equations, in combination with easily obtained and non-destructive plant volume measurements, to better quantify and monitor ecological change within the dynamic, climate sensitive, and highly-productive mangrove-marsh ecotone.

Louisiana↗

Riparian ecosystem creation and restoration: a literature summary

Riparian ecosystems generally compose a minor proportion of surrounding areas, but typically are more structurally diverse and more productive in plant and animal biomass than adjacent upland areas. Riparian areas supply food, cover, and water (especially important in the arid West) for a large diversity of animals, and serve as migration routes and forest connectors between habitats for a variety of wildlife, particularly ungulates and birds. Because riparian ecosystems often are relatively small areas and occur in conjunction with waterways, they are vulnerable to severe alteration. Riparian ecosystems throughout the U.S. have been heavily impacted by man's activities. Riparian ecosystem creation and restoration have been used as mitigation for project impacts from highway, bridge, and pipeline construction; water development; flood control channel modifications; industrial and residential development; agriculture; irrigation; livestock grazing; mining; and accidental habitat loss. Creation of a riparian ecosystem in| a more mesic upland area (e.g., ‘grassland or cropland) adjacent to a river requires appropriate water supply and grading the topography to suitable elevations to support plantings of riparian vegetation. Restoration involves returning the ecosystem to pre disturbance conditions and typically implies revegetation. Removing exotic vegetation or restoring water supplies to pre disturbance level also may be involved. Enhancement of riparian ecosystems commonly refers to improving existing conditions to increase habitat value, usually by increasing plant or community diversity to increase value for wildlife. Managing a riparian ecosystem typically involves enhancement techniques. However, creation and restoration projects often involve use of techniques considered more management-oriented (e.g., fencing to prevent cattle grazing until planted vegetation of a created or restored wetland is established). Protection of an existing riparian ecosystem from impact should be of utmost importance during planning and construction phases of development projects. If loss or damage is unavoidable, wetland creation or restoration can be used as mitigation. Compared to other wetland types (e.g., coastal wetlands), projects and techniques involving creation or restoration of riparian ecosystems are not well documented. For example, only 8% of the records in the WCR Data Base contained information on riparian ecosystems, whereas 31% of the records contained information on coastal emergent or forested ecosystems. To provide a source of currently available literature, riparian information from 92 records (primarily published papers or reports) in the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service's (FWS) Wetland Creation-Restoration (WCR) Data Base (Schneller-McDonald et al. 1988) was used to develop a literature summary of creation and restoration of riparian ecosystems. The summary provides an overview of the status of riparian ecosystems in the U.S., a discussion of several riparian functions, and a review of some techniques used for planning, implementing, monitoring, and measuring project success of creation-restoration efforts. Case studies of various creation or restoration projects are used to demonstrate these techniques and to report some results of their use. Several well-documented case studies are discussed in detail to illustrate more extensive efforts to plan, implement, or monitor riparian ecosystem creation-restoration projects. For the purpose of this report, riparian ecosystems are defined as landscapes adjacent to drainageways of floodplains that exhibit vegetation, soil, and hydrologic mosaics along topographic and moisture gradients that are distinct from the predominant landscape surface types. Major plant communities are described under palustrine system in Cowardin et al. (1979). Literature from the WCR Data Base was used to provide a summary of riparian ecosystem creation-restoration literature. Thus, information concerning natural systems is not included unless discussed in these articles. This focus allows the reader to compare relative information available on riparian ecosystem creation-restoration efforts. However, this focus also results in limited information in some sections of the report (e.g., Status of Riparian Ecosystems in the U.S.). Individuals involved in riparian ecosystem creation-restoration efforts are encouraged to thoroughly examine available literature on natural and altered systems. Brinson et al. (1981) provide a comprehensive review and synthesis of the ecology and status of riparian ecosystems. Over 500 articles are cited in their 124-page report. Chapters include the following topics: status of riparian ecosystems in the U.S., ecological functions and properties of riparian ecosystems (e.g., geomorphology, primary productivity, nutrient cycling, hydrology), importance of riparian ecosystems to fish and wildlife, and considerations in valuation (ecologic and economic) of riparian ecosystems. Brinson et al. (1981) also discuss management of riparian ecosystems. Riparian ecosystem management literature was not included in the WCR Data Base, unless the article also discussed creation or restoration.

Report↗

Anatomical and genetic variation of western Oxyloma (Pulmonata: Succineidae) concerning the endangered Kanab ambersnail ( Oxyloma haydeni kanabense ) in Arizona and Utah

The land snail genus Oxyloma (Pulmonata: Succineidae) includes the Federally endangered Kanab ambersnail (Oxyloma haydeni kanabense Pilsbry), which is known at the time of this study from only two locations in the United States: Three Lakes, Utah, and Vaseys Paradise, Arizona, on the Colorado River in Grand Canyon National Park. Since 1994, the Kanab ambersnail has received much attention because its presence at Vaseys Paradise has implications for the ecosystem-wide management of the Colorado River. This attention is primarily because an experimental high-flow release of water from Glen Canyon Dam in 1996 destroyed or degraded Kanab ambersnail habitat at Vaseys Paradise. This experimental high flow was designed to replicate natural flow regimes throughout the Grand Canyon river corridor. However, as a result of the habitat destruction at Vaseys Paradise, in 1996, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service ruled that no further experimental high-discharge floods could be carried out until additional Kanab ambersnail populations were discovered or established. This mandate created a situation where the management of a single endangered species conflicted directly with the management of an entire ecosystem. Although since 1996, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service has permitted the use of flows as high as stage heights equivalent to 44,000 cubic feet per second, higher flows were requested by various Grand Canyon stakeholders and scientists but were not possible owing to low storage of Lake Powell. Adding to the controversy about Oxyloma and the Kanab ambersnail were previous anatomical and genetic analyses of the genus, which showed that genetic characteristics of specimens did not correspond with their identifications based on traditional taxonomic criteria, raising questions about the validity of the taxonomy of Oxyloma and the protected status of Kanab ambersnails. Specifically, a previous study suggested that the endangered Kanab ambersnail population at Three Lakes was more closely related to other, non-endangered ambersnail populations across the Southwest. In contrast, the Kanab ambersnail population at Vaseys Paradise appeared to be genetically distinct from all other ambersnail populations studied. Management options for the ambersnail population at Vaseys Paradise, at the time of this study, conflict with ecosystem-wide measures proposed to benefit other natural resources in the Grand Canyon. The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service will not revise the 1995 Kanab Ambersnail Recovery Plan until further genetic and anatomical analyses provide more fine-scale taxonomic resolution of the identity of Oxyloma populations on the Colorado Plateau and elsewhere in the American Southwest. Likewise, interagency cooperators cannot revise down-listing criteria for the Kanab ambersnail until substantial evidence is provided identifying distinct Oxyloma taxa or a larger group of conspecifics that reasonably could be managed as one species. Therefore, given the current controversy about the taxonomy of Oxyloma and the endangered Kanab ambersnail, new detailed analyses were completed of morphological and genetic variation from many Oxyloma specimens collected at 12 western North American locations. These new data have allowed us to evaluate many issues related to Kanab ambersnail taxonomy. Using this dataset, the study of shells and anatomy indicates that the holotype of Oxyloma haydeni kanabense plausibly can be regarded as a member of the same species as the populations of Oxyloma analyzed in this study. Additionally, the presence of gene flow among all populations is evidence that they are members of the same species. Almost all the observed genetic diversity can be accounted for by short-distance or long-distance dispersal events between populations in this study. Our major taxonomic conclusion is that all samples collected for this study were drawn from populations of the same species.

Arizona;Utah↗

Analysis of bathymetric surveys to identify coastal vulnerabilities at Cape Canaveral, Florida

Cape Canaveral, Florida, is a prominent feature along the Southeast U.S. coastline. The region includes Merritt Island National Wildlife Refuge, Cape Canaveral Air Force Station, NASA’s Kennedy Space Center, and a large portion of Canaveral National Seashore. The actual promontory of the modern Cape falls within the jurisdictional boundaries of Cape Canaveral Air Force Station. Erosion hazards result from winter and tropical storms, changes in sand resources, sediment budgets, and sea-level rise. Previous work by the USGS has focused on the vulnerability of the dunes to storms, where updated bathymetry and topography have been used for modeling efforts. Existing research indicates that submerged shoals, ridges, and sandbars affect patterns of wave refraction and height, coastal currents, and control sediment transport. These seabed anomalies indicate the availability and movement of sand within the nearshore environment, which may be directly related to the stability of the Cape Canaveral shoreline. Understanding the complex dynamics of the offshore bathymetry and associated sediment pathways can help identify current and future erosion vulnerabilities due to short-term (for example, hurricane and other extreme storms) and long-term (for example, sea-level rise) hazards. The purpose of this work is to describe an updated bathymetric dataset collected in 2014 and compare it to previous datasets. The updated data focus on the bathymetric features and sediment transport pathways that connect the offshore regions to the shoreline and, therefore, are related to the protection of other portions of the coastal environment, such as dunes, that support infrastructure and ecosystems. Previous survey data include National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) National Ocean Service (NOS) hydrographic survey from 1956 and a USGS survey from 2010 that is augmented with NOS surveys from 2006 and 2007. The primary result of this analysis is documentation and quantification of the nature and rates of bathymetric changes that are near (within about 2.5 km) the current Cape Canaveral shoreline and interpretation of the impact of these changes on future erosion vulnerability.

Florida↗

A future for the inland fish and fisheries hidden within the sustainable development goals

The United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are a unifying call for change - guiding global actions at multiple levels of governance for a better planet and better lives. Consequently, achieving the “future we want” may be hindered by overlooking valuable natural resources and services that are not explicitly included in the SDGs. Not recognizing the direct, intrinsic value of some natural resources may threaten the sustainability of the services they provide and their contributions to the SDGs. Here, we use inland aquatic ecosystems, and the fish and fisheries therein, as an example to explore opportunities for recognition and inclusion of other natural resources that are missing from the SDGs. Key resources absent from the SDGs are less likely to be incorporated in global, national, and regional objectives, dialogues, and policies. We outline multiple potential pathways for better inclusion and capitalization of contributions from these overlooked natural resources during the operationalization of the SDGs and other global instruments.

Frontiers in Environmental Science↗

Climate change vulnerability assessment for guiding ecosystem restoration in fire-prone landscapes of the western U.S.

Climate-driven alterations to fire regimes challenges forest management and restoration in the western United States, where increased wildfire severity threatens ecosystem integrity and resilience. In this study, we demonstrate the application of the FireCLIME (Fire-Climate-Landscape Interactions in Montane Ecosystems) Vulnerability Assessment (VA) as a decision-support tool for evaluating management actions, including restoration strategies, under climate uncertainty. Through collaborative workshops with USDA Forest Service managers, we assessed three project areas in two national forests: Lincoln National Forest (LNF, New Mexico) and Bighorn National Forest (BNF, Wyoming). These two locations represent distinct climate zones, forest ecosystems, and fire regimes. We examined how changing climate and fire regimes affect ecosystem vulnerability with the FireCLIME VA, which integrates exposure to climate and fire regime changes, ecosystem response factors, and adaptive capacity via management intervention to compare vulnerability outcomes relative to desired future conditions (DFC). Results revealed that forests that departed more from historical conditions (LNF) exhibited greater vulnerability. Soil burn severity and associated erosion emerged as common vulnerability drivers across all sites. For both forests, treatments were able to reduce departure from DFC. Treatment effectiveness varied by ecosystem type; some interventions demonstrated broad capacity to lower vulnerability and achieve DFC for a wide range of components, while others had more targeted effects for specific components. This assessment framework reveals substantial synergy between climate adaptation planning and restoration ecology principles, suggesting that vulnerability assessments can effectively guide restoration planning under climate uncertainty by balancing risk reduction with ecosystem resilience enhancement.

New Mexico, Wyoming↗

Monitoring Ground-Water Quality in Coastal Ecosystems

INTRODUCTION The Cape Cod National Seashore (CACO) extends along more than 70 km of Atlantic Ocean open-beach coastline and includes three large saltwater bays - Wellfleet Harbor, Nauset Marsh, and Pleasant Bay (fig. 1). CACO encompasses about 18,000 ha of uplands, lakes, wetlands, and tidal lands (Godfrey and others, 1999) including most habitats typical of the sandy coast in National seashores and parks extending southward from Massachusetts to Florida. In 1995, CACO was selected by the National Park Service (NPS) as a prototype park typifying the Atlantic and Gulf Coast biogeographic region for long-term coastal ecosystem monitoring. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is currently (2007) assisting the NPS in the development of protocols for a Long-Term Coastal Ecosystem Monitoring Program at the CACO in Massachusetts. The overall purpose of the monitoring program is to characterize both natural and human-induced change in the biological resources of the CACO, over a time scale of decades, in the context of a changing global ecosystem.

Open-File Report↗

Mercury in the Walker River Basin, Nevada and California: Sources, distribution, and potential effects on the ecosystem

Mercury is one of the most serious contaminants of water, sediment, and biota in Nevada because of its use during 19th century mining activities to recover gold and silver from ores. In 1998, mercury problems were discovered in the Walker River Basin of California and Nevada when blood drawn from three common loons from Walker Lake was analyzed and found to have severely elevated mercury levels. From 1999 to 2001, the U.S. Geological Survey and the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service collected water, sediment, and biological samples to determine mercury sources, distribution, and potential effects on the Walker River Basin ecosystem. Total-mercury concentrations ranged from 0.62 to 57.11 ng/L in streams from the Walker River system and ranged from 1.02 to 26.8 ng/L in lakes and reservoirs. Total-mercury concentrations in streambed sediment ranged from 1 to 13,600 ng/g, and methylmercury concentrations ranged from 0.07 to 32.1 ng/g. The sediment-effects threshold for mercury for fresh-water invertebrates is 200 ng/g, which was exceeded at nine stream sites in the Walker River Basin. The highest mercury concentrations were in streams with historic mines and milling operations in the watershed. The highest mercury concentration in sediment, 13,600 ng/g, was found in Bodie Creek near Bodie, Calif., a site of extensive gold mining and milling activities during the 19th century. Sediment cores taken from Walker Lake show total-mercury concentrations exceeding 1,000 ng/g at depths greater than 15 cm below lake bottom. The presence of 137Cs above 8 cm in one core indicates that the upper 8 cm was deposited sometime after 1963. The mercury peak at 46 cm in that core, 2,660 ng/g, likely represents the peak of mining and gold extraction in the Bodie and Aurora mining districts between 1870 and 1880. Mercury concentrations in aquatic invertebrates at all sites downstream from mining activities in the Rough Creek watershed, which drains the Bodie and Aurora mining districts, were elevated (range 0.263 to 0.863 ?g/g, dry weight). Mercury concentrations in the Walker Lake tui chub, the most abundant and likely prey for common loons, ranged from approximately 0.09 ?g/g to approximately 0.9 ?g/g (wet weight). Larger tui chub in the lake, which are most likely older, had the highest mercury concentrations. Blood samples from 94 common loons collected at Walker Lake between 1998 and 2001 contained a mean mercury concentration of 2.96 ?g/g (standard deviation 1.72 ?g/g). These levels were substantially higher than those found in more than 1,600 common loons tested across North America. Among the 1,600 common loons, the greatest blood mercury concentration, 9.46 ?g/g, was from a loon at Walker Lake. According to risk assessments for northeastern North America, blood mercury concentrations exceeding 3.0 ?g/g cause behavioral, reproductive, and physiological effects. At least 52 percent of the loons at Walker Lake are at risk for adverse effects from mercury on the basis of their blood-mercury concentrations. The larger loons staging in the spring are the most at risk group. The elevated mercury levels found in tui chub and common loons indicate that there is a potential threat to the well being and reproduction of fish and wildlife that use Walker Lake. Wildlife that use Weber Reservoir may also be at risk because it is the first reservoir downstream from mining activities in the Bodie and Aurora areas and mercury concentrations in sediment were elevated. Additional data on mercury concentrations in top level predators, such as piscivorous fish and birds, are needed to assess public health and other environmental risks.

California, Nevada↗

Baseline conditions and projected future hydro-climatic change in National Parks in the conterminous United States

The National Park Service (NPS) manages hundreds of parks in the United States, and many contain important aquatic ecosystems and/or threatened and endangered aquatic species vulnerable to hydro-climatic change. Effective management of park resources under future hydro-climatic uncertainty requires information on both baseline conditions and the range of projected future conditions. A monthly water balance model was used to assess baseline (1981-1999) conditions and a range of projected future hydro-climatic conditions in 374 NPS parks. General circulation model outputs representing 214 future climate simulations were used to drive the model. Projected future changes in temperature (T), precipitation (P), and runoff (R) are expressed as departures from historical baselines. Climate simulations indicate increasing T in 2030 for all parks with 50th percentile simulations projecting increases of 1.67 oC or more in 50% of parks. Departures in 2030 P indicate a mix of mostly increases and some decreases, with 50th percentile simulations projecting increases in P in more than 70% of parks. Departures in R for 2030 are mostly decreases , with the 50th percentile simulations projecting decreases in R in more than 50% of parks in all seasons except winter. Hence in many parks, R is projected to decrease even when P is projected to increase because of increasing T in all NPS parks. Projected changes in future hydro-climatic conditions can also be assessed for individual parks, and Rocky Mountain National Park and Congaree National Park are used as examples.

Water↗