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At least 1,045 records · Page 58Linked to original sources
USGS2009

The influence of microtopography on soil nutrients in created mitigation wetlands

This study explores the relationship between microtopography and soil nutrients (and trace elements), comparing results for created and reference wetlands in Virginia, and examining the effects of disking during wetland creation. Replicate multiscale tangentially conjoined circular transects were used to quantify microtopography both in terms of elevation and by two microtopographic indices. Corresponding soil samples were analyzed for moisture content, total C and N, KCl-extractable NH4-N and NO3-N, and Mehlich-3 extractable P, Ca, Mg, K, Al, Fe, and Mn. Means and variances of soil nutrient/element concentrations were compared between created and natural wetlands and between disked and nondisked created wetlands. Natural sites had higher and more variable soil moisture, higher extractable P and Fe, lower Mn than created wetlands, and comparatively high variability in nutrient concentrations. Disked sites had higher soil moisture, NH4-N, Fe, and Mn than did nondisked sites. Consistently low variances (Levene test for inequality) suggested that nondisked sites had minimal nutrient heterogeneity. Across sites, low P availability was inferred by the molar ratio (Mehlich-3 [P/(Al + Fe)] < 0.06); strong intercorrelations among total C, total N, and extractable Fe, Al, and P suggested that humic-metal-P complexes may be important for P retention and availability. Correlations between nutrient/element concentrations and microtopographic indices suggested increased Mn and decreased K and Al availability with increased surface roughness. Disking appears to enhance water and nutrient retention, as well as nutrient heterogeneity otherwise absent from created wetlands, thus potentially promoting ecosystem development. ?? 2008 Society for Ecological Restoration International.

Restoration Ecology↗
USGS2009

The numerical and functional responses of a granivorous rodent and the fate of Neotropical tree seeds

Despite their potential to provide mechanistic explanations of rates of seed dispersal and seed fate, the functional and numerical responses of seed predators have never been explicitly examined within this context. Therefore, we investigated the numerical response of a small-mammal seed predator, Heteromys desmarestianus, to disturbance-induced changes in food availability and evaluated the degree to which removal and fate of seeds of eight tree species in a lowland tropical forest in Belize were related to the functional response of H. desmarestianus to varying seed densities. Mark-recapture trapping was used to estimate abundance of H. desmarestianus in six 0.5-ha grids from July 2000 to September 2002. Fruit availability and seed fate were estimated in each grid, and two experiments nested within the grids were used to determine (1) the form of the functional response for nine levels of fruit density (2-32 fruits/m 2 ), (2) the removal rate and handling times, and (3) the total proportion of fruits removed. The total proportion of fruits removed was determined primarily by the numerical response of H. desmarestianus to fruit availability, while removal rates and the proportion of seeds eaten or cached were related primarily to the form of the functional response. However, the numerical and functional responses interacted; H. desmarestianus showed strong spatial and temporal numerical responses to total fruit availability, and their density relative to fruit availability resulted in variation in the form of the functional response. Types I, II, and III functional responses were observed, as were density-independent responses, and these responses varied both among and within fruit species. The highest proportions of fruits were eaten when the Type III functional response was detected, which was when fruit availability was high relative to H. desmarestianus population density. Numerous idiosyncratic influences on seed fate have been documented, but our results indicate that shifts in the numerical and functional responses of seed predators to seasonal and interannual variation in seed availability potentially provide a general mechanistic explanation for patterns of removal and fate for vertebrate-dispersed seeds. ?? 2009 by the Ecological Society of America.

Ecology↗
USGS1986

Benthic invertebrate population characteristics as affected by water quality in coal-bearing regions of Tennessee

Benthic invertebrate and water quality data collected during previous U.S. Geological Survey studies to provide background hydrologic information on streams draining Tennessee coal reserves, were evaluated to identify possible relations between stream biota and water quality. Linear regressions produced low correlation coefficients relating the number of taxa/sample, total number of organisms/sample, sample diversity, and percentage composition of selected orders of invertebrates, with average water quality parameter values available at sampling stations (r is < 0.62 at p=0.05). Analyses of these data by linear regressions explained little of the variability in benthic invertebrate samples primarily because the distributions of benthic organisms along environmental gradients are nonlinear. Variability in substrate characteristics in the study area and seasonal insect emergence patterns also complicated interpretation of these data. However, analysis of variance tests did indicate significant trends towards reduced number of taxa, number of organisms, and sample diversity at stations with relatively poor water quality conditions. Decreasing percentage composition of Ephemeroptera was generally accompanied by an increase in percent Diptera at stations with higher water quality constituent concentrations and acidic pH (> than 0.6 units). These trends indicate significant differences in benthic communities at sites with evidence of more severe land use impacts. Additional data on benthic invertebrates, water quality, and physical habitat conditions, along with analyses of data using multivariate statistical methods are needed to define ecological relations between specific groups of invertebrates and environmental conditions.

Tennessee↗
USGS2017

Virginia flow-ecology modeling results—An initial assessment of flow reduction effects on aquatic biota

Background The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the Virginia Department of Environmental Quality (DEQ), reviewed a previously compiled set of linear regression models to assess their utility in defining the response of the aquatic biological community to streamflow depletion. As part of the 2012 Virginia Healthy Watersheds Initiative (HWI) study conducted by Tetra Tech, Inc., for the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and Virginia DEQ, a database with computed values of 72 hydrologic metrics, or indicators of hydrologic alteration (IHA), 37 fish metrics, and 64 benthic invertebrate metrics was compiled and quality assured. Hydrologic alteration was represented by simulation of streamflow record for a pre-water-withdrawal condition (baseline) without dams or developed land, compared to the simulated recent-flow condition (2008 withdrawal simulation) including dams and altered landscape to calculate a percent alteration of flow. Biological samples representing the existing populations represent a range of alteration in the biological community today. For this study, all 72 IHA metrics, which included more than 7,272 linear regression models, were considered. This extensive dataset provided the opportunity for hypothesis testing and prioritization of flow-ecology relations that have the potential to explain the effect(s) of hydrologic alteration on biological metrics in Virginia streams.

Virginia↗
USGS2020

Benthic habitat is an integral part of freshwater Mysis ecology

Diel vertical migration (DVM) is common in aquatic organisms. The trade‐off between reduced predation risk in deeper, darker waters during the day and increased foraging opportunities closer to the surface at night is a leading hypothesis for DVM behaviour. Diel vertical migration behaviour has dominated research and assessment frameworks for Mysis , an omnivorous mid‐trophic level macroinvertebrate that exhibits strong DVM between benthic and pelagic habitats and plays key roles in many deep lake ecosystems. However, some historical literature and more recent evidence indicate that mysids also remain on the bottom at night, counter to expectations of DVM. We surveyed the freshwater Mysis literature using Web of Science (WoS; 1945–2019) to quantify the frequency of studies on demographics, diets, and feeding experiments that considered, assessed, or included Mysis that did not migrate vertically but remained in benthic habitats. We supplemented our WoS survey with literature searches for relevant papers published prior to 1945, journal articles and theses not listed in WoS, and additional references known to the authors but missing from WoS (e.g. only 47% of the papers used to evaluate in situ diets were identified by WoS). Results from the survey suggest that relatively little attention has been paid to the benthic components of Mysis ecology. Moreover, the literature suggests that reliance on Mysis sampling protocols using pelagic gear at night provides an incomplete picture of Mysis populations and their role in ecosystem structure and function. We summarise current knowledge of Mysis DVM and provide an expanded framework that more fully considers the role of benthic habitat. Acknowledging benthic habitat as an integral part of Mysis ecology will enable research to better understand the role of Mysis in food web processes.

Freshwater Biology↗
USGS2021

Migration stopover ecology of Cinnamon Teal in western North America

Identifying migration routes and fall stopover sites of Cinnamon Teal ( Spatula cyanoptera septentrionalium) can provide a spatial guide to management and conservation efforts, and address vulnerabilities in wetland networks that support migratory waterbirds. Using high spatiotemporal resolution GPS-GSM transmitters, we analyzed 61 fall migration tracks across western North America during our three-year study (2017–2019). We marked Cinnamon Teal primarily during spring/summer in important breeding and molting regions across seven states (California, Oregon, Washington, Idaho, Utah, Colorado, and Nevada). We assessed fall migration routes and timing, detected 186 fall stopover sites, and identified specific North American ecoregions where sites were located. We classified underlying land cover for each stopover site and measured habitat selection for 12 land cover types within each ecoregion. Cinnamon Teal selected a variety of flooded habitats including natural, riparian, tidal, and managed wetlands; wet agriculture (including irrigation ditches, flooded fields, and stock ponds); wastewater sites; and golf and urban ponds. Wet agriculture was the most used habitat type (29.8% of stopover locations), and over 72% of stopover locations were on private land. Relatively scarce habitats such as wastewater ponds, tidal marsh, and golf and urban ponds were highly selected in specific ecoregions. In contrast, dry non-habitat across all ecoregions, and dry agriculture in the Cold Deserts and Mediterranean California ecoregions, was consistently avoided. Resources used by Cinnamon Teal often reflected wetland availability across the west and emphasize their adaptability to dynamic resource conditions in arid landscapes. Our results provide much needed information on spatial and temporal resource use by Cinnamon Teal during migration and indicate important wetland habitats for migrating waterfowl in the western United States.

Ecology and Evolution↗
USGS2025

Alternating movement strategies of a tropical raptor

The majority of raptor species reside in the tropics, yet very little is known about their movement ecology. However, quantifying movement behavior can provide otherwise elusive information on resource needs, habitat selection, and ecological constraints, which is important for understanding ecological patterns and the management of species of conservation concern. On the Island of Hawai‘i, Hawai‘i, USA, the endemic ‘Io, or Hawaiian Hawk ( Buteo solitarius ), is a species of conservation concern that little is known of their movement ecology, yet they are dependent on a fragmented and rapidly changing environment. We tracked 15 individuals for up to 18 months across a diverse landscape on the eastern side of the island. We found that all ‘Io occupied a relatively small geographic area, their place of residency, where they spent all or most of their time. However, 10 individuals also exhibited an alternative movement pattern, where individuals repeatedly commuted back and forth between their place of residency to another, geographically disjunct location. These commuter periods, which could last from 24–180 days, were characterized by frequent (9–259) movements, with individual trips lasting 4–77 h away from their place of residency and 12–47 h in between commuter trips. In most cases, individuals went to the same non-contiguous commuting destination, even across multiple commuting sessions, indicating high fidelity to commuting locations. The ‘Io is a forest adapted Buteo but occurs across a diverse landscape from forest to agriculture lands to urban areas. Habitat selection analysis indicated high individual variation among different birds, but generally a preference for forest patches at localized levels. The discovery of the alternative commuting strategy for many ‘Io represents a cryptic movement pattern in the species, demonstrating the power of small, long-lived Global Position System tracking devices to track movement and providing important insights into the ecology of a tropical island raptor.

Hawaii↗
USGS2024

Ecological trade-offs associated with fuel breaks in the sagebrush ecosystem

Background Unprecedented wildfire frequency, fueled by invasive annual grasses, threatens sagebrush ecosystems. To suppress wildfire and conserve sagebrush, land management agencies have installed fuel breaks across the sagebrush biome. However, despite the potential reduction in wildfire, fuel breaks may have ecological costs. Determining an acceptable balance between risks and benefits of fuel breaks is needed to avoid accelerating sagebrush loss, annual grass invasion, and habitat degradation. To evaluate the potential for ecological trade-offs to occur, we characterized the contexts in which known fuel breaks currently exist. We synthesized spatial data on all known fuel breaks and a suite of variables that may contribute to fuel break risks and benefits, including burn probabilities, predicted fuel break effectiveness, linear infrastructure, invasive annual grass cover, soil moisture conditions that confer resistance to invasion and resilience to disturbance, and priority wildlife habitats across the sagebrush biome. Results We found that within the sagebrush biome, fuel breaks are generally located in areas with high burn probability and are thus positioned well to intercept potential wildfires. However, fuel breaks are also frequently positioned in areas with lower predicted fuel break effectiveness relative to the sagebrush biome overall. Fuel breaks also are spatially associated with high invasive grass cover, indicating the need to better understand the causal relationship between fuel breaks and annual invasive grasses. We also show that the fuel break network is dense within priority wildlife habitats. Dense fuel breaks within wildlife habitats may trade off wildfire protection for decreased integrity of such habitats. Conclusions Our analyses describe the potential for fuel breaks to invoke ecological trade-offs and show that the balance of risks and benefits differs across sagebrush ecosystems. Strategic research and actions are needed to evaluate which factors tip the balance towards maximizing wildfire suppression while minimizing risk to sensitive ecological resources.

Arizona, California, Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Nev↗
USGS2026

Exploring management options for moose at their southern range limits considering growing disease risk

1. Populations of cold-adapted species are increasingly vulnerable along their low-latitude range limits due to shifting environmental conditions, biotic interactions, and anthropogenic pressures. Managing these populations is particularly challenging because of complex ecological dynamics, conflicting stakeholder interests, and decision-making under uncertainty. 2. We explored population growth (λ) of moose ( Alces alces ) under different hypothetical management scenarios, simulating combinations of five hypothetical harvest levels with three levels of disease impact. 3. Facing current disease, the population could support multiple levels of conservative harvest. Under elevated levels of disease-caused mortality, projections indicated declines for all harvest scenarios. We projected increases across all harvest scenarios when overlap with white-tailed deer ( Odocoileus virginianus ) was hypothetically reduced and disease mortality in moose minimized. We investigated whether uncertainty in moose demographic parameters altered population trajectory, and found changes in adult fecundity and calf survival could alter harvest decisions when λ<1. 4. Practical implication . While moose population trajectories may remain stable under current conditions, management of white-tailed deer that reduces moose exposure to lethal parasites may provide the greatest utility in sustaining moose in New York given the potential for increased disease. Continued monitoring of population size, growth, and disease prevalence would inform sustainable moose harvest levels that balance social and ecological management considerations.

New York↗
USGS2018

The epidemiology of avian pox and interaction with avian malaria in Hawaiian forest birds

Despite the purported role of avian pox ( Avipoxvirus spp.) in the decline of endemic Hawaiian birds, few studies have been conducted on the dynamics of this disease, its impact on free‐living avian populations, or its interactions with avian malaria ( Plasmodium relictum ). We conducted four longitudinal studies of 3–7 yr in length and used generalized linear models to evaluate cross‐sectional prevalence of active pox infection and individuals with healed deformities that had recovered from pox. Our goal was to understand how species, season, elevation, malaria infection, and other biological characteristics influenced pox infection in ʻApapane, Hawaiʻi ʻAmakihi, ʻIʻiwi, and Japanese White‐eye across low‐, mid‐, and high‐elevation forests on the island of Hawaiʻi. We also used multi‐state capture‐recapture (longitudinal) models to estimate pox infection rates, recovery rates, and potential pox‐related mortality. Pox infection rates were typically highest in low‐elevation forests, followed by mid‐elevation forests, and lowest in high‐elevation forests. We also found seasonal changes in pox prevalence throughout the annual cycle; typically increasing from spring through summer, peaking in fall, and declining in winter. These seasonal changes occurred in low‐ and mid‐elevation forests, but not in high elevations where pox infection was low. Seasonal and elevation patterns of pox infection are like those for avian malaria, strongly implicating mosquito vectors, rather than other biting arthropods or contact transmission, as the primary source of transmitting both diseases. Most native Hawaiian birds recovered from pox infection within 6 months; frequently without permanent lesions. Contrary to our expectations, we found no direct evidence that pox is a substantial mortality factor in any of the three native bird species we studied. Birds with chronic malaria infection were more likely to have both active pox infection and healed pox lesions suggesting a synergistic interaction that may influence the evolution of pox virulence. Because pox infection can be assessed visually, and birds have a high recovery rate, this disease may be a sensitive indicator of the seasonal and annual risk of transmission of malaria in Hawaiʻi.

Ecological Monographs↗
USGS2023

An integral projection model for gizzard shad (Dorosoma cepedianum) utilizing density-dependent age-0 survival

Gizzard shad (Dorosoma cepedianum) is a common freshwater fish species found throughout the central and eastern portions of North America. Within these regions, gizzard shad play several critical roles in the freshwater community such as serving as prey for other fish species and translocating nutrients from substrates into the water column. Because of this, it is important to understand gizzard shad population dynamics. Here, we introduce an integral projection model (IPM) for gizzard shad that incorporates empirical information from sources including Long Term Resource Monitoring (LTRM) upper Mississippi River restoration data. IPMs are a generalization of stage-based, matrix population models that have been used to describe a wide range of organisms, and as such are a natural choice for gizzard shad because many aspects of their life cycle have been studied. We tested model outputs against empirical patterns reported for gizzard shad from a different location along the Illinois River (La Grange Reach). Results of our work indicate that our model could serve as an important tool for predicting patterns within gizzard shad populations.

Ecological Modelling↗
USGS2007

Dynamic in-lake spawning migrations by female sockeye salmon

Precise homing by salmon to natal habitats is considered the primary mechanism in the evolution of population-specific traits, yet few studies have focused on this final phase of their spawning migration. We radio tagged 157 female sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) as they entered Lake Clark, Alaska, and tracked them every 1-10 days to their spawning locations. Contrary to past research, no specific shoreline migration pattern was observed (e.g., clockwise) nor did fish enter a tributary unless they spawned in that tributary. Tributary spawning fish migrated faster (mean = 4.7 km??day-1, SD = 2.7, vs. 1.6 km??day-1, SD = 2.1) and more directly (mean linearity = 0.8, SD = 0.2, vs. 0.4, SD = 0.2) than Lake Clark beach spawning fish. Although radio-tagged salmon migrated to within 5 km of their final spawning location in an average of 21.2 days (SD = 13.2), some fish migrated five times the distance necessary and over 50 days to reach their spawning destination. These results demonstrate the dynamic nature of this final phase of migration and support studies indicating a higher degree of homing precision by tributary spawning fish. ?? Journal compilation 2007 Blackwell Munksgaard No claim to original US government works.

Ecology of Freshwater Fish↗
USGS2014

Seedling ecology and restoration of blackbrush ( Coleogyne ramosissima ) in the Mojave Desert, United States

Increases in fire frequency are disrupting many ecological communities not historically subjected to fire. In the southwestern United States, the blackbrush ( Coleogyne ramosissima ) community is among the most threatened, often replaced by invasive annual grasses after fire. This long-lived shrub is vulnerable because it recruits sporadically, partially due to mast seeding and the absence of a seed bank. The goal of this study was to evaluate if shrub restoration can be enhanced by identifying and ameliorating recruitment limitations. Specifically, we tested the effect of encapsulating seeds in predation-deterring “seed balls.” We also tested the effects of nurse plants and mammalian exclusion cages on seedling emergence, growth, and survivorship. These experiments were conducted in a full-factorial design across three sites differing in elevation. Over 2 years, 13% of all planted seeds emerged and the effect of seed balls was overwhelmingly negative because of low emergence. Nurse plants had overall positive effects at Low Elevation, but negative effects at Mid- and High Elevation. Emergence and survival were highest in caged plots everywhere, and effect sizes increased with elevation. Interactions between the cage and the nurse plant treatments indicated that nurse plants tended to attract mammalian predators, lowering emergence and seedling survivorship, particularly at higher elevations. Findings conform to the stress-gradient hypothesis in that interactions among seedlings and mature plants shifted from facilitation to competition as environmental stress decreased with increasing elevation, suggesting that they are transferable to ecologically similar communities elsewhere. Knowledge of site-specific recruitment limitations can help minimize ineffective restoration efforts.

California;Nevada↗
USGS1976

Feeding ecology of breeding gadwalls on saline wetlands

The feeding ecology of breeding gadwalls ( Anas strepera ) from saline wetlands in North Dakota was examined in relation to sex, pair mates, reproductive status, food availability, and wetland type during the spring and summer of 1971 and 1972. Esophagi of males and females contained 40.4 and 48.2 percent animal food, respectively, between 17 April and 25 August. Animal foods consumed by paired females varied with reproductive condition and were independent of their mates. Invertebrates increased from 47.7 i?? 17.4 percent in the diet during prelaying to 72.0 i?? 18.4 percent during laying and declined to 46.3 i?? 30.0 percent during postlaying. Aquatic insects dominated the diet during egg-laying and were selected disproportionately relative to their availability. Esophageal contents indicated that diversity of plant and animal foods in the diet varied inversely with specific conductance. Major factors influencing food selection of the breeding birds are discussed as interactions among their physiological status, their anatomical and behavioral characteristics, and the abundance and behavior of food organisms as influenced by chemical and physical features of the environment. The data suggested that these interrelated ecological factors act simultaneously to control the phenology of events and determine the foods utilized.

North Dakota↗
USGS2010

Migration of waterfowl in the east asian flyway and spatial relationship to HPAI H5N1 outbreaks

Poyang Lake is situated within the East Asian Flyway, a migratory corridor for waterfowl that also encompasses Guangdong Province, China, the epicenter of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1. The lake is the largest freshwater body in China and a significant congregation site for waterfowl; however, surrounding rice fields and poultry grazing have created an overlap with wild waterbirds, a situation conducive to avian influenza transmission. Reports of HPAI H5N1 in healthy wild ducks at Poyang Lake have raised concerns about the potential of resilient free-ranging birds to disseminate the virus. Yet the role wild ducks play in connecting regions of HPAI H5N1 outbreak in Asia is hindered by a lack of information about their migratory ecology. During 2007-08 we marked wild ducks at Poyang Lake with satellite transmitters to examine the location and timing of spring migration and identify any spatiotemporal relationship with HPAI H5N1 outbreaks. Species included the Eurasian wigeon ( Anas penelope ), northern pintail ( Anas acuta ), common teal ( Anas crecca ), falcated teal ( Anas falcata ), Baikal teal ( Anas formosa ), mallard ( Anas platyrhynchos ), garganey ( Anas querquedula ), and Chinese spotbill ( Anas poecilohyncha ). These wild ducks (excluding the resident mallard and Chinese spotbill ducks) followed the East Asian Flyway along the coast to breeding areas in northern China, eastern Mongolia, and eastern Russia. None migrated west toward Qinghai Lake (site of the largest wild bird epizootic), thus failing to demonstrate any migratory connection to the Central Asian Flyway. A newly developed Brownian bridge spatial analysis indicated that HPAI H5N1 outbreaks reported in the flyway were related to latitude and poultry density but not to the core migration corridor or to wetland habitats. Also, we found a temporal mismatch between timing of outbreaks and wild duck movements. These analyses depend on complete or representative reporting of outbreaks, but by documenting movements of wild waterfowl, we present ecological knowledge that better informs epidemiological investigations seeking to explain and predict the spread of avian influenza viruses. ?? 2010 American Association of Avian Pathologists.

Avian Diseases↗
USGS2017

Comparison of acoustic recorders and field observers for monitoring tundra bird communities

Acoustic recorders can be useful for studying bird populations but their efficiency and accuracy should be assessed in pertinent ecological settings before use. We investigated the utility of an acoustic recorder for monitoring abundance of tundra‐breeding birds relative to point‐count surveys in northwestern Alaska, USA, during 2014. Our objectives were to 1) compare numbers of birds and species detected by a field observer with those detected simultaneously by an acoustic recorder; 2) evaluate how detection probabilities for the observer and acoustic recorder varied with distance of birds from the survey point; and 3) evaluate whether avian guild‐specific detection rates differed between field observers and acoustic recorders relative to habitat. Compared with the observer, the acoustic recorder detected fewer species (β Method = −0.39 ± 0.07) and fewer individuals (β Method = −0.56 ± 0.05) in total and for 6 avian guilds. Discrepancies were attributed primarily to differences in effective area surveyed (91% missed by device were >100 m), but also to nonvocal birds being missed by the recorder (55% missed <100 m were silent). The observer missed a few individuals and one species detected by the device. Models indicated that relative abundance of various avian guilds was associated primarily with maximum shrub height and less so with shrub cover and visual obstruction. The absence of a significant interaction between survey method (observer vs . acoustic recorder) and any habitat characteristic suggests that traditional point counts and acoustic recorders would yield similar inferences about ecological relationships in tundra ecosystems. Pairing of the 2 methods could increase survey efficiency and allow for validation and archival of survey results.

Alaska↗
USGS2016

Mid-21st-century climate changes increase predicted fire occurrence and fire season length, Northern Rocky Mountains, United States

Climate changes are expected to increase fire frequency, fire season length, and cumulative area burned in the western United States. We focus on the potential impact of mid-21st-century climate changes on annual burn probability, fire season length, and large fire characteristics including number and size for a study area in the Northern Rocky Mountains. Although large fires are rare they account for most of the area burned in western North America, burn under extreme weather conditions, and exhibit behaviors that preclude methods of direct control. Allocation of resources, development of management plans, and assessment of fire effects on ecosystems all require an understanding of when and where fires are likely to burn, particularly under altered climate regimes that may increase large fire occurrence. We used the large fire simulation model FSim to model ignition, growth, and containment of wildfires under two climate scenarios: contemporary (based on instrumental weather) and mid-century (based on an ensemble average of global climate models driven by the A1B SRES emissions scenario). Modeled changes in fire patterns include increased annual burn probability, particularly in areas of the study region with relatively short contemporary fire return intervals; increased individual fire size and annual area burned; and fewer years without large fires. High fire danger days, represented by threshold values of Energy Release Component (ERC), are projected to increase in number, especially in spring and fall, lengthening the climatic fire season. For fire managers, ERC is an indicator of fire intensity potential and fire economics, with higher ERC thresholds often associated with larger, more expensive fires. Longer periods of elevated ERC may significantly increase the cost and complexity of fire management activities, requiring new strategies to maintain desired ecological conditions and limit fire risk. Increased fire activity (within the historical range of frequency and severity, and depending on the extent to which ecosystems are adapted) may maintain or restore ecosystem functionality; however, in areas that are highly departed from historical fire regimes or where there is disequilibrium between climate and vegetation, ecosystems may be rapidly and persistently altered by wildfires, especially those that burn under extreme conditions.

Idaho↗
USGS2016

Flood effects provide evidence of an alternate stable state from dam management on the Upper Missouri River

We examine how historic flooding in 2011 affected the geomorphic adjustments created by dam regulation along the approximately 120 km free flowing reach of the Upper Missouri River bounded upstream by the Garrison Dam (1953) and downstream by Lake Oahe Reservoir (1959) near the City of Bismarck, ND, USA. The largest flood since dam regulation occurred in 2011. Flood releases from the Garrison Dam began in May 2011 and lasted until October, peaking with a flow of more than 4200 m 3 s −1 . Channel cross-section data and aerial imagery before and after the flood were compared with historic rates of channel change to assess the relative impact of the flood on the river morphology. Results indicate that the 2011 flood maintained trends in island area with the loss of islands in the reach just below the dam and an increase in island area downstream. Channel capacity changes varied along the Garrison Segment as a result of the flood. The thalweg, which has been stable since the mid-1970s, did not migrate. And channel morphology, as defined by a newly developed shoaling metric, which quantifies the degree of channel braiding, indicates significant longitudinal variability in response to the flood. These results show that the 2011 flood exacerbates some geomorphic trends caused by the dam while reversing others. We conclude that the presence of dams has created an alternate geomorphic and related ecological stable state, which does not revert towards pre-dam conditions in response to the flood of record. This suggests that management of sediment transport dynamics as well as flow modification is necessary to restore the Garrison Segment of the Upper Missouri River towards pre-dam conditions and help create or maintain habitat for endangered species. Published 2016. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Upper Missouri River↗