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Search indexed USGS publications on groundwater, aquifers, geologic maps, mineral resources and earthquakes. Explore source records by subject and place.

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At least 1,045 records · Page 58Linked to original sources
USGS2017

Glacierized headwater streams as aquifer recharge corridors, subarctic Alaska

Arctic river discharge has increased in recent decades although sources and mechanisms remain debated. Abundant literature documents permafrost thaw and mountain glacier shrinkage over the past decades. Here we link glacier runoff to aquifer recharge via a losing headwater stream in subarctic Interior Alaska. Field measurements in Jarvis Creek (634 km 2 ), a subbasin of the Tanana and Yukon Rivers, show glacier meltwater runoff as a large component (15–28%) of total annual streamflow despite low glacier cover (3%). About half of annual headwater streamflow is lost to the aquifer (38 to 56%). The estimated long-term change in glacier-derived aquifer recharge exceeds the observed increase in Tanana River base flow. Our findings suggest a linkage between glacier wastage, aquifer recharge along the headwater stream corridor, and lowland winter discharge. Accordingly, glacierized headwater streambeds may serve as major aquifer recharge zones in semiarid climates and therefore contributing to year-round base flow of lowland rivers.

Alaska↗
USGS2012

Glacier variability in the conterminous United States during the twentieth century

Glaciers of the conterminous United States have been receding for the past century. Since 1900 the recession has varied from a 24 % loss in area (Mt. Rainier, Washington) to a 66 % loss in the Lewis Range of Montana. The rates of retreat are generally similar with a rapid loss in the early decades of the 20th century, slowing in the 1950s–1970s, and a resumption of rapid retreat starting in the 1990s. Decadal estimates of changes in glacier area for a subset of 31 glaciers from 1900 to 2000 are used to test a snow water equivalent model that is subsequently employed to examine the effects of temperature and precipitation variability on annual glacier area changes for these glaciers. Model results indicate that both winter precipitation and winter temperature have been important climatic factors affecting the variability of glacier variability during the 20th Century. Most of the glaciers analyzed appear to be more sensitive to temperature variability than to precipitation variability. However, precipitation variability is important, especially for high elevation glaciers. Additionally, glaciers with areas greater than 1 km 2 are highly sensitive to variability in temperature.

Climate Change↗
USGS2022

Wetlands under global change

Wetlands are among the ecosystem types most threatened by global change, including both climate change and other anthropogenic factors such as sea level rise, urban development, deforestation, agricultural land use, drainage, levees, tidal flow restrictions, pollution, eutrophication, and fires. Wetlands not only store disproportionate amounts of carbon compared to other terrestrial ecosystems, but they lie at the terrestrial-aquatic interface crucial to understanding landscape and global scale biogeochemical cycles. In this chapter, we focus on the major global change factors affecting wetlands and the responses of different wetland types to those global change factors. Special attention is given to direct responses to increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide levels. Because of their hydrological connections and placement at the terrestrial-aquatic interface, the conservation of wetlands involves accounting for uncertainties related to interacting stressors. While the past decades have seen many important experimental and observational studies of wetland responses to global change factors, large uncertainties remain, especially within tropical regions where even the basic extent of wetland ecosystems is not well documented.

Book chapter↗
USGS2014

The Pacific Islands Climate Science Center five-year science agenda, 2014-2018

From the heights of Mauna Kea on Hawaiʻi Island to the depths of the Mariana Trench, from densely populated cities to sparse rural indigenous communities and uninhabited sandy atolls, the Pacific region encompasses diverse associations of peoples and places that are directly affected by changes to the atmosphere, ocean, and land. The peoples of the Pacific are among the first to observe and experience the effects of global climatic changes. Because the Pacific region is predominantly composed of vast ocean expanses punctuated only by small, isolated emergent islands and atolls, marine processes are critical factors in the region’s climate systems, and their impacts occur here to a greater degree than in continental regions. Rates of sea-level rise in the region during the modern altimetry period exceed the global rate, with the highest increases occurring in the western North Pacific (Cazenave and Llovel, 2010; Nerem and others, 2010; Timmermann and others, 2010). The ocean has also warmed during this period. Since the 1970s, sea-surface temperature has increased at a rate of 0.13 to 0.41 °F (0.07 to 0.23 °C) per decade, depending on the location (Keener and others, 2012a). Ocean chemistry has changed during this period as well, with surface pH having dropped by 0.1 pH units (Feely and others, 2009; Doney and others, 2012). Over the past century, air temperature has increased throughout the Pacific region. In Hawaiʻi, average temperatures increased by 0.08 °F per decade during the period 1919 to 2006, and in recent years, the rate of increase has been accelerating, particularly at high elevations (Giambelluca and others, 2008). In the western North Pacific, temperatures also increased over the past 60 years (Lander and Guard, 2003; Lander, 2004; Lander and Khosrowpanah, 2004; Kruk and others, 2013), with a concurrent warming trend in the central South Pacific since the 1950s (Australian Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO, 2011).

Hawai'i↗
USGS2007

Hydrology of Polk County, Florida

Local water managers usually rely on information produced at the State and regional scale to make water-resource management decisions. Current assessments of hydrologic and water-quality conditions in Polk County, Florida, commonly end at the boundaries of two water management districts (South Florida Water Management District and the Southwest Florida Water Management District), which makes it difficult for managers to determine conditions throughout the county. The last comprehensive water-resources assessment of Polk County was published almost 40 years ago. To address the need for current countywide information, the U.S. Geological Survey began a 3?-year study in 2002 to update information about hydrologic and water-quality conditions in Polk County and identify changes that have occurred. Ground-water use in Polk County has decreased substantially since 1965. In 1965, total ground-water withdrawals in the county were about 350 million gallons per day. In 2002, withdrawals totaled about 285 million gallons per day, of which nearly 95 percent was from the Floridan aquifer system. Water-conservation practices mainly related to the phosphate-mining industry as well as the decrease in the number of mines in operation in Polk County have reduced total water use by about 65 million gallons per day since 1965. Polk County is underlain by three principal hydrogeologic units. The uppermost water-bearing unit is the surficial aquifer system, which is unconfined and composed primarily of clastic deposits. The surficial aquifer system is underlain by the intermediate confining unit, which grades into the intermediate aquifer system and consists of up to two water-bearing zones composed of interbedded clastic and carbonate rocks. The lowermost hydrogeologic unit is the Floridan aquifer system. The Floridan aquifer system, a thick sequence of permeable limestone and dolostone, consists of the Upper Floridan aquifer, a middle semiconfining unit, a middle confining unit, and the Lower Floridan aquifer. The Upper Floridan aquifer provides most of the water required to meet demand in Polk County. Data from about 300 geophysical and geologic logs were used to construct hydrogeologic maps showing the tops and thicknesses of the aquifers and confining units within Polk County. Thickness of the surficial aquifer system ranges from several feet thick or less in the extreme northwestern part of the county and along parts of the Peace River south of Bartow to more than 200 feet along the southern part of the Lake Wales Ridge in eastern Polk County. Thickness of the intermediate aquifer system/intermediate confining unit is highly variable throughout the county because of past erosional processes and sinkhole formation. Thickness of the unit ranges from less than 25 feet in the extreme northwestern part of the county to more than 300 feet in southwestern Polk County. The altitude of the top of the Upper Floridan aquifer in the county ranges from about 50 feet above National Geodetic Vertical Datum of 1929 (NGVD 29) in the northwestern part to more than 250 feet below NGVD 29 in the southern part. Water levels in the Upper Floridan aquifer fluctuate seasonally, increasing during the wet season (June through September) and decreasing during the rest of the year. Water levels in the Upper Floridan aquifer also can change from year to year, depending on such factors as pumpage and climatic variations. In the southwestern part of the county, fluctuations in water use related to phosphate mining have had a major impact on ground-water levels. Hydrographs of selected wells in southwestern Polk County show a general decline in water levels that ended in the mid-1970s. This water-level decline coincides with an increase in water use associated with phosphate mining. A substantial increase in water levels that began in the mid-1970s coincides with a period of decreasing water use in the county. Despite reductions in water use since 1970, howev

Scientific Investigations Report↗
USGS2020

Quantitative paleoflood hydrology

This chapter reviews the paleohydrologic techniques and approaches used to reconstruct the magnitude and frequency of past floods using geological evidence. Quantitative paleoflood hydrology typically leads to two phases of analysis: (1) documentation and assessment of flood physical evidence (paleostage indicators), and (2) relating identified flood evidence to flood discharge, based on hydraulic calculations. Most paleoflood studies rely on stratigraphic sequences of fine-grained flood deposits found in slack-water and eddy environments in bedrock rivers to enable the estimates of paleodischarges for floods of past few centuries or millennia. Geochronology, commonly based on techniques such as optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) and radiocarbon, enable paleoflood age estimates. Such paleoflood discharge and age information can vastly improve flood frequency estimates, particularly for large and rare floods for which quantile estimates are typically poorly constrained by short historical records. The inclusion of such physical evidence of flooding into flood frequency assessments has been aided by new techniques of frequency analysis that can efficiently employ such data. Consequently, paleoflood analysis is supporting probability risk management of critical infrastructure such as nuclear facilities, dams, or bridges. Paleoflood studies also support understanding of the recurrence of geomorphically effective flows and assessment of non-stationarity in the frequency of large floods due to climate, land-use, or other environmental changes.

Llobregat River↗
USGS2011

Simulation of groundwater flow in a volatile organic compound-contaminated area near Bethpage, Nassau County, New York: A discussion of modeling considerations

The 2010 Bethpage groundwater-flow model (ARCADIS, 2010) was based on a steady state assumption. Although it is widely acknowledged that significant water-level changes have occurred in the past, the reviewed model does not represent changing water levels. The steady state approach limits the effectiveness of the following: 1. identification of sources of contamination, 2. analysis of model accuracy, 3. model calibration, and 4. simulations of future scenarios. Future plume movement was simulated in an incomplete manner through an unchanging groundwater-flow field. Available time-series information on temporal variation of factors affecting groundwater-flow dynamics includes: 1. public-supply pumping, 2. groundwater discharges from systems remediating volatile organic compound (VOC) plumes, 3. recharge and precipitation rates, and 4. water levels and streamflows. Transient phenomena that might be useful in future hypothetical simulations include pumping variations, redirection of containment-system waters for industrial use, and climate-change scenarios. Public-domain computer programs, U.S. Geological Survey guidance reports on transient-state calibration and uncertainty methods (Doherty and Hunt, 2010), and additional local and regional datasets are available to provide additional confidence in model evaluations and allow better evaluation of their limitations.

New York↗
USGS2024

Limited preservation of strike-slip surface displacement in the geomorphic record

Offset geomorphic markers are commonly used to interpret slip history of strike-slip faults and have played an important role in forming earthquake recurrence models. These data sets are typically analyzed using cumulative probability methods to interpret average amounts of slip in past earthquakes. However, interpretation of the geomorphic record to infer surface slip history is complicated by slip variability, measurement uncertainty, and modification of offset features in the landscape. To investigate how well geomorphic data record surface slip, we use offset measurements from recent strike-slip surface ruptures ( n = 39), faults with geomorphic evidence of multiple strike-slip earthquakes ( n = 29), and synthetic slip distributions with added noise ( n > 10,000) to examine the constraints of the geomorphic record and the underlying assumptions of the cumulative offset probability distribution analysis method. We find that the geomorphic record is unlikely to resolve more than two paleo-slip distributions, except in specific cases with low slip variability, high slip-per-event, and semiarid climate. In cases where site-specific conditions allow for interpretation of more than two earthquakes, lateral extrapolation along a fault is not straightforward because on-fault displacement and distributed deformation may be spatially variable in each earthquake. We also find that average slip in modern earthquakes is adequately recovered by probability methods, but the reported prevalence of strike-slip faults with characteristic slip history is not supported by geomorphic data. We also propose updated methods to interpret slip history and construct uncertainty bounds for paleo-slip distributions.

Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth↗
USGS2001

Biomes of western North America at 18,000, 6000 and 0 14C yr BP reconstructed from pollen and packrat midden data

A new compilation of pollen and packrat midden data from western North America provides a refined reconstruction of the composition and distribution of biomes in western North America for today and for 6000 and 18,000 radiocarbon years before present (14C yr BP). Modern biomes in western North America are adequately portrayed by pollen assemblages from lakes and bogs. Forest biomes in western North America share many taxa in their pollen spectra and it can be difficult to discriminate among these biomes. Plant macrofossils from packrat middens provide reliable identification of modern biomes from arid and semiarid regions, and this may also be true in similar environments in other parts of the world. However, a weighting factor for trees and shrubs must be used to reliably reconstruct modern biomes from plant macrofossils. A new biome, open conifer woodland, which includes eurythermic conifers and steppe plants, was defined to categorize much of the current and past vegetation of the semiarid interior of western North America. At 6000 14C yr BP, the forest biomes of the coastal Pacific North-west and the desert biomes of the South-west were in near-modern positions. Biomes in the interior Pacific North-west differed from those of today in that taiga prevailed in modern cool/cold mixed forests. Steppe was present in areas occupied today by open conifer woodland in the northern Great Basin, while in the central and southern Rocky Mountains forests grew where steppe grows today. During the mid-Holocene, cool conifer forests were expanded in the Rocky Mountains (relative to today) but contracted in the Sierra Nevada. These differences from the forests of today imply different climatic histories in these two regions between 6000 14C yr BP and today. At 18,000 14C yr BP, deserts were absent from the South-west and the coverage of open conifer woodland was greatly expanded relative to today. Steppe and tundra were present in much of the region now covered by forests in the Pacific North-west.

Journal of Biogeography↗
USGS2018

Iterative near-term ecological forecasting: Needs, opportunities, and challenges

Two foundational questions about sustainability are “How are ecosystems and the services they provide going to change in the future?” and “How do human decisions affect these trajectories?” Answering these questions requires an ability to forecast ecological processes. Unfortunately, most ecological forecasts focus on centennial-scale climate responses, therefore neither meeting the needs of near-term (daily to decadal) environmental decision-making nor allowing comparison of specific, quantitative predictions to new observational data, one of the strongest tests of scientific theory. Near-term forecasts provide the opportunity to iteratively cycle between performing analyses and updating predictions in light of new evidence. This iterative process of gaining feedback, building experience, and correcting models and methods is critical for improving forecasts. Iterative, near-term forecasting will accelerate ecological research, make it more relevant to society, and inform sustainable decision-making under high uncertainty and adaptive management. Here, we identify the immediate scientific and societal needs, opportunities, and challenges for iterative near-term ecological forecasting. Over the past decade, data volume, variety, and accessibility have greatly increased, but challenges remain in interoperability, latency, and uncertainty quantification. Similarly, ecologists have made considerable advances in applying computational, informatic, and statistical methods, but opportunities exist for improving forecast-specific theory, methods, and cyberinfrastructure. Effective forecasting will also require changes in scientific training, culture, and institutions. The need to start forecasting is now; the time for making ecology more predictive is here, and learning by doing is the fastest route to drive the science forward.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of↗
USGS2014

Temporal variability of carbon and nutrient burial, sediment accretion, and mass accumulation over the past century in a carbonate platform mangrove forest of the Florida Everglades.

The objective of this research was to measure temporal variability in accretion and mass sedimentation rates (including organic carbon (OC), total nitrogen (TN), and total phosphorous (TP)) from the past century in a mangrove forest on the Shark River in Everglades National Park, USA. The 210 Pb Constant Rate of Supply model was applied to six soil cores to calculate annual rates over the most recent 10, 50, and 100 year time spans. Our results show that rates integrated over longer timeframes are lower than those for shorter, recent periods of observation. Additionally, the substantial spatial variability between cores over the 10 year period is diminished over the 100 year record, raising two important implications. First, a multiple-decade assessment of soil accretion and OC burial provides a more conservative estimate and is likely to be most relevant for forecasting these rates relative to long-term processes of sea level rise and climate change mitigation. Second, a small number of sampling locations are better able to account for spatial variability over the longer periods than for the shorter periods. The site average 100 year OC burial rate, 123 ± 19 (standard deviation) g m -2 yr -1 , is low compared with global mangrove values. High TN and TP burial rates in recent decades may lead to increased soil carbon remineralization, contributing to the low carbon burial rates. Finally, the strong correlation between OC burial and accretion across this site signals the substantial contribution of OC to soil building in addition to the ecosystem service of CO 2 sequestration.

Florida↗
USGS2014

Trends in conservation research and management in Hawai‘i over the past 20 years

Hawaiʻi, an archipelago of the most isolated inhabited islands on the planet, faces unique and extreme challenges to its biodiversity. We examined how the conservation community has responded to these challenges and how the responses have changed over time, using twenty years of abstracts from the Hawaiʻi Conservation Conference, a yearly gathering of the majority of scientists, managers and the public in Hawaiʻi. Of the 2145 abstracts considered, 60% percent reported research results; 40.0% reported information on conservation and resource management programmes and institutions (i.e., non-research abstracts). Initially, applied research abstracts predominated, but in recent years the number of basic research abstracts has become similar. Across taxonomic groups, terrestrial plants, mammals and birds were the dominant research subjects, fish, algae and fungi were noticeably less studied relative to their diversity in Hawaiʻi. Bird and fish species studied were mostly native; research on most other taxa was evenly divided between native and non-native species. Topics have oscillated in frequency over the years, but there have been no dramatic trends, with the exception of climate change and Local Ecological Knowledge (LEK). Although there is an increasing trend in LEK and cross-disciplinary studies, the number of related abstracts have remained uncommon through the period, accounting for less than 5.0% of total research abstracts analyzed. Our results offer an oportunity for the conservation community to take a closer look at reported effort to better address key conservation questions for Hawaiʻi.

Hawaiʻi↗
USGS2020

Loss of coastal islands along Florida’s Big Bend region: Implications for breeding American oystercatchers

Many coastal-dependent species have undergone large-scale population declines due to impacts from habitat loss, including American oystercatchers ( Haematopus palliatus ). Islands along the Big Bend region of Florida’s Gulf Coast provide important nesting habitat for oystercatchers, but reproductive success here is low and habitat degradation and loss are a major concern. To determine rates and characteristics of habitat loss, we quantified changes in island sizes within two major breeding areas of the Big Bend: the Barge Canal spoil islands and natural islands at Cedar Key. We digitized aerial photographs from the past ~ 40 years, measured area and shoreline retreat of nesting islands, and identified trends over time by fitting linear mixed effects models. The total area of the ten Barge Canal spoil islands decreased by 55% between 1979 and 2016. At Cedar Key, the total area of the six islands measured decreased by 39% between 1974 and 2016, 85% of which occurred after 1995, indicating an increase in erosion rates correlated with oyster reef declines. Changes in available nesting habitat varied between the Barge Canal and Cedar Key islands due to differences in physical attributes; however, all islands significantly decreased in size over time. Given the long life and high site fidelity of American oystercatchers, these islands may currently be acting as an ecological trap for this species. Climate change, sea-level rise, and loss of oyster reefs are likely to continue to drive oystercatcher habitat loss throughout their range; thus, creation and restoration of oyster reefs and nesting islands will become increasingly important.

Florida↗
USGS2016

Observations and modeling of fjord sedimentation during the 30 year retreat of Columbia Glacier, AK

To explore links between glacier dynamics, sediment yields and the accumulation of glacial sediments in a temperate setting, we use extensive glaciological observations for Columbia Glacier, Alaska, and new oceanographic data from the fjord exposed during its retreat. High-resolution seismic data indicate that 3.2 × 10 8 m 3 of sediment has accumulated in Columbia Fjord over the past three decades, which corresponds to ~5 mm a −1 of erosion averaged over the glaciated area. We develop a general model to infer the sediment-flux history from the glacier that is compatible with the observed retreat history, and the thickness and architecture of the fjord sediment deposits. Results reveal a fivefold increase in sediment flux from 1997 to 2000, which is not correlated with concurrent changes in ice flux or retreat rate. We suggest the flux increase resulted from an increase in the sediment transport capacity of the subglacial hydraulic system due to the retreat-related steepening of the glacier surface over a known subglacial deep basin. Because variations in subglacial sediment storage can impact glacial sediment flux, in addition to changes in climate, erosion rate and glacier dynamics, the interpretation of climatic changes based on the sediment record is more complex than generally assumed.

Alaska↗
USGS2002

Rodent middens, a new method for Quaternary research in arid zones of South America

In arid and semi-arid regions of South America, historical evidence for climate and vegetation change is scarce despite its importance for determining reference conditions and rates of natural variability in areas susceptible to modern desertification. Normal lines of evidence, such as pollen stratigraphies from lakes, are either rare or unobtainable in deserts; studies of late Quaternary vegetation history are few and generally inconclusive. This gap in knowledge may be corrected with discovery and development of fossil rodent middens in rocky environments throughout arid South America. These middens, mostly the work of Lagidium, Phyllotis, Abrocoma and Octodontomys, are rich in readily identifiable plant macrofossils, cuticles and pollen, as well as vertebrate and insect remains. In the North American deserts, more than 2,500 woodrat (Neotoma) middens analyzed since 1960 have yielded a detailed history of environmental change during the past 40,000 years. Preliminary work in the pre-puna, Monte and Patagonian Deserts of western Argentina, the Atacama Desert of northern Chile/southern Peru, the Mediterranean matorral of central Chile, and the Puna of the Andean altiplano suggest a similar potential for rodent middens in South America. Here we borrow from the North American experience to synthesize methodologies and approaches, summarize preliminary work, and explore the potential of rodent midden research in South America.

Revista Chilena de Historia Natural↗
USGS2019

Submarine permafrost map in the arctic modelled using 1D transient heat flux (SuPerMAP)

Offshore permafrost plays a role in the global climate system, but observations of permafrost thickness, state, and composition are limited to specific regions. The current global permafrost map shows potential offshore permafrost distribution based on bathymetry and global sea level rise. As a first‐order estimate, we employ a heat transfer model to calculate the subsurface temperature field. Our model uses dynamic upper boundary conditions that synthesize Earth System Model air temperature, ice mass distribution and thickness, and global sea level reconstruction and applies globally distributed geothermal heat flux as a lower boundary condition. Sea level reconstruction accounts for differences between marine and terrestrial sedimentation history. Sediment composition and pore water salinity are integrated in the model. Model runs for 450 ka for cross‐shelf transects were used to initialize the model for circumarctic modeling for the past 50 ka. Preindustrial submarine permafrost (i.e., cryotic sediment), modeled at 12.5‐km spatial resolution, lies beneath almost 2.5 ×10 6 km 2 of the Arctic shelf. Our simple modeling approach results in estimates of distribution of cryotic sediment that are similar to the current global map and recent seismically delineated permafrost distributions for the Beaufort and Kara seas, suggesting that sea level is a first‐order determinant for submarine permafrost distribution. Ice content and sediment thermal conductivity are also important for determining rates of permafrost thickness change. The model provides a consistent circumarctic approach to map submarine permafrost and to estimate the dynamics of permafrost in the past.

Journal of Geophysical Research C: Oceans↗
USGS2013

Biogeographic perspective of speciation among desert tortoises in the genus Gopherus : a preliminary evaluation

The enduring processes of time, climate, and adaptation have sculpted the distribution of organisms we observe in the Sonoran Desert. One such organism is Morafka’s desert tortoise, Gopherus morafkai. We apply a genomic approach to identify the evolutionary processes driving diversity in this species and present preliminary findings and emerging hypotheses. The Sonoran Desert form of the tortoise exhibits a continuum of genetic similarity spanning 850 km of Sonoran desertscrub extending from Empalme, Sonora, to Kingman, Arizona. However, at the ecotone between desertscrub and foothills thornscrub we identify a distinct, Sinaloan lineage and this occurrence suggests a more complex evolutionary history for G. morafkai. By using multiple loci from throughout the tortoise’s genome, we aim to determine if divergence between these lineages occurred in allopatry, and further to investigate for signatures of past or current genetic introgression. This international, collaborative project will assist state and federal agencies in developing management strategies that best preserve the evolutionary potential of Morafka’s desert tortoise. Ultimately, an understanding of the evolutionary history of desert tortoises will not only clarify the forces that have driven the divergence in this group, but also contribute to our knowledge of the biogeographic history of the Southwestern deserts and how diversity is maintained within them.

Proceedings↗
USGS2019

Quantifying trends and uncertainty in prehistoric forest composition

Forest ecosystems in eastern North America were in flux over the last several thousand years, well before Euro-American land clearance and the 20th-century onset of anthropogenic climate change. However, the magnitude and uncertainty of prehistoric vegetation change have been difficult to quantify because of the multiple ecological, dispersal, and sedimentary processes that govern the relationship between forest composition and fossil pollen assemblages. Here we extend STEPPS, a Bayesian hierarchical spatio-temporal pollen-vegetation model, to estimate changes in forest composition in the upper Midwestern United States from about 2000 to 200 years ago. Using this approach, we identify areas of statistically and ecologically significant change. Between 2000 and 200 years ago, forest composition significantly changed across broad regions of north-central Wisconsin and Minnesota. Rates of compositional change varied spatially, and can be linked to previously reported events. The single largest change is the infilling of Tsuga canadensis in northern Wisconsin over the past 2000 years. Despite this range in-filling, the range limit of T. canadensis was largely stable, with modest expansion westward. The regional ecotone between temperate hardwood forests and northern mixed hardwood/conifer forests shifted southwestward by 15-20 km in Minnesota and Northwestern Wisconsin. Fraxinus, Ulmus, and other mesic hardwoods expanded in the Big Woods region of southern Minnesota. However, some areas showed no significant change, suggesting high complexity in the spatiotemporal patterns of past forest dynamics. The increasing density of paleoecological data networks and advances in statistical modeling approaches now enables the confident detection of subtle but significant changes in forest composition over the last 2000 years.

Minnesota, Wisconsin↗