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At least 1,027 records · Page 57Linked to original sources
USGS2023

The Chesapeake Bay Land Change Model (CBLCM): Simulating future land use scenarios and potential impacts on water quality

The Chesapeake Bay Land Change Model (CBLCM) is an open-source pseudo-cellular automata land change model tailored for loose coupling with watershed models. The CBLCM simulates infill development, residential and commercial development, natural land and agricultural land conversion, and growth served by sewer or septic wastewater treatment. The CBLCM is unique among land change models by simulating multiple types of development and explicitly accounting for infill development and the spatial patterns of development densities. The CBLCM was used to simulate five future land use scenarios, holding population constant, for all counties within and adjacent to the Chesapeake Bay watershed from 2013 to 2055. Results are presented here for the state of Maryland over the period 2013–2025 to illustrate model functionality and validation. The growth management (GM) scenario achieved the least development and potential impacts to natural and agricultural lands while accommodating the same amount of population growth as the other four scenarios. Scenarios focusing exclusively on natural or agricultural land protection shifted development to unprotected areas resulting in unforeseen water quality consequences. Simultaneously achieving more compact development while protecting the most valued natural and agricultural lands requires a combination of GM and land conservation policies and actions.

Maryland↗
USGS2014

Using mark-recapture distance sampling methods on line transect surveys

Mark–recapture distance sampling (MRDS) methods are widely used for density and abundance estimation when the conventional DS assumption of certain detection at distance zero fails, as they allow detection at distance zero to be estimated and incorporated into the overall probability of detection to better estimate density and abundance. However, incorporating MR data in DS models raises survey and analysis issues not present in conventional DS. Conversely, incorporating DS assumptions in MR models raises issues not present in conventional MR. As a result, being familiar with either conventional DS methods or conventional MR methods does not on its own put practitioners in good a position to apply MRDS methods appropriately. This study explains the sometimes subtly different varieties of MRDS survey methods and the associated concepts underlying MRDS models. This is done as far as possible without giving mathematical details – in the hope that this will make the key concepts underlying the methods accessible to a wider audience than if we were to present the concepts via equations. We illustrate use of the two main types of MRDS model by using data collected on two different types of survey: a survey of ungulate faecal pellets where two observers searched independently of each other; and a cetacean survey that used a search protocol that could accommodate responsive movement, with only one observer searching independently and the other being aware of all detections. Synthesis and applications . Mark–recapture DS is a widely used method for estimating animal density and abundance when detection of animals at distance zero is not certain. Two observer configurations and three statistical models are described, and it is important to choose the most appropriate model for the observer configuration and target species in question. By way of making the methods more accessible to practicing ecologists, we describe the key ideas underlying MRDS methods, the sometimes subtle differences between them, and we illustrate these by applying different kinds of MRDS method to surveys of two different target species using different survey configurations.

Methods in Ecology and Evolution↗
USGS2017

Statistical design and analysis for plant cover studies with multiple sources of observation errors

Effective wildlife habitat management and conservation requires understanding the factors influencing distribution and abundance of plant species. Field studies, however, have documented observation errors in visually estimated plant cover including measurements which differ from the true value (measurement error) and not observing a species that is present within a plot (detection error). Unlike the rapid expansion of occupancy and N-mixture models for analysing wildlife surveys, development of statistical models accounting for observation error in plants has not progressed quickly. Our work informs development of a monitoring protocol for managed wetlands within the National Wildlife Refuge System. Zero-augmented beta (ZAB) regression is the most suitable method for analysing areal plant cover recorded as a continuous proportion but assumes no observation errors. We present a model extension that explicitly includes the observation process thereby accounting for both measurement and detection errors. Using simulations, we compare our approach to a ZAB regression that ignores observation errors (naïve model) and an “ad hoc” approach using a composite of multiple observations per plot within the naïve model. We explore how sample size and within-season revisit design affect the ability to detect a change in mean plant cover between 2 years using our model. Explicitly modelling the observation process within our framework produced unbiased estimates and nominal coverage of model parameters. The naïve and “ad hoc” approaches resulted in underestimation of occurrence and overestimation of mean cover. The degree of bias was primarily driven by imperfect detection and its relationship with cover within a plot. Conversely, measurement error had minimal impacts on inferences. We found >30 plots with at least three within-season revisits achieved reasonable posterior probabilities for assessing change in mean plant cover. For rapid adoption and application, code for Bayesian estimation of our single-species ZAB with errors model is included. Practitioners utilizing our R-based simulation code can explore trade-offs among different survey efforts and parameter values, as we did, but tuned to their own investigation. Less abundant plant species of high ecological interest may warrant the additional cost of gathering multiple independent observations in order to guard against erroneous conclusions.

Methods in Ecology and Evolution↗
USGS2025

Trends in richness and occupancy of Ugandan birds and relation to local tree cover

Changes in vegetation cover are occurring across sub-Saharan Africa and can have substantial effects on ecological communities, but limited data make understanding status and trends difficult for many taxa. We surveyed birds for several decades across Uganda using point counts. Using time-to-detection analysis in a trait-informed Bayesian multi-species occupancy framework, we model bird species richness as a function of year and local tree cover across 28 sites. We test for trends in richness and occupancy, and for the relationship between these and local and landscape-scale tree cover. Species richness increased at 75% of sites through the study period, and generalist bird species were most likely to be increasing in occupancy. Forest specialist bird species, and to a lesser extent generalists, responded positively to tree cover. Woody cover is changing across Uganda, with declines most pronounced in areas with the highest tree cover. This is likely to be causing declines in forest specialist species while favouring generalists. When tree cover decline is caused by conversion to croplands, rather than transitions to grasslands, grassland specialists are unlikely to benefit. Effects of climate and land use change and population pressure are likely to continue to alter woody plant cover and thus affect East African bird communities.

African Journal of Ecology↗
USGS2020

The effects of swimming exercise and dissolved oxygen on growth performance, fin condition and survival of rainbow trout Oncorhynchus mykiss

Swimming exercise and dissolved oxygen (DO) are important parameters to consider when operating intensive salmonid aquaculture facilities. While previous research has focused on each of these two variables in rainbow trout Oncorhynchus mykiss , studies examining both variables in combination, and their potential interaction, are absent from the scientific literature. Both swimming exercise (usually measured in body lengths per second, or BL/s) and DO can be readily controlled in modern aquaculture systems; therefore, we sought to evaluate the effects of these variables, separately and combined, on several outcomes in rainbow trout including growth performance, fin health and survival. Rainbow trout fry (18 g) were stocked into 12 circular 0.5 m 3 tanks, provided with either high (1.5–2 BL/s) or low (approximately 0.5 BL/s) swimming exercise and high (100% saturation) or low (70% saturation) DO, and grown to approximately 1 kg. By the conclusion of the study, higher DO was independently associated with significantly ( p < .05) increased growth performance. Significant differences were not noted in other outcomes, namely feed conversion, condition factor and mortality, although caudal and right pectoral fin damage was associated with low oxygen and low swimming exercise treatments respectively. Cardiosomatic index was significantly higher among exercised fish. These results suggest that swimming exercise and DO at saturation during the culture of rainbow trout can be beneficial to producers through improved growth performance and cardiac health.

Aquaculture Research↗
USGS2012

Deforestation trends of tropical dry forests in central Brazil

Tropical dry forests are the most threatened forest type in the world yet a paucity of research about them stymies development of appropriate conservation actions. The Paranã River Basin has the most significant dry forest formations in the Cerrado biome of central Brazil and is threatened by intense land conversion to pastures and agriculture. We examined changes in Paranã River Basin deforestation rates and fragmentation across three time intervals that covered 31 yr using Landsat imagery. Our results indicated a 66.3 percent decrease in forest extent between 1977 and 2008, with an annual rate of forest cover change of 3.5 percent. Landscape metrics further indicated severe forest loss and fragmentation, resulting in an increase in the number of fragments and reduction in patch sizes. Forest fragments in flatlands have virtually disappeared and the only significant forest remnants are mostly found over limestone outcrops in the eastern part of the basin. If current patterns persist, we project that these forests will likely disappear within 25 yr. These patterns may be reversed with creation of protected areas and involvement of local people to preserve small fragments that can be managed for restoration.

Biotropica↗
USGS2018

Effects of temperature and precipitation on grassland bird nesting success as mediated by patch size

Grassland birds are declining faster than any other bird guild across North America. Shrinking ranges and population declines are attributed to widespread habitat loss and increasingly fragmented landscapes of agriculture and other land uses that are misaligned with grassland bird conservation. Concurrent with habitat loss and degradation, temperate grasslands have been disproportionally affected by climate change relative to most other terrestrial biomes. Distributions of grassland birds often correlate with gradients in climate, but few researchers have explored the consequences of weather on the demography of grassland birds inhabiting a range of grassland fragments. To do so, we modeled the effects of temperature and precipitation on nesting success rates of 12 grassland bird species inhabiting a range of grassland patches across North America (21,000 nests from 81 individual studies). Higher amounts of precipitation in the preceding year were associated with higher nesting success, but wetter conditions during the active breeding season reduced nesting success. Extremely cold or hot conditions during the early breeding season were associated with lower rates of nesting success. The direct and indirect influence of temperature and precipitation on nesting success was moderated by grassland patch size. The positive effects of precipitation in the preceding year on nesting success were strongest in relatively small grassland patches and had little effect in large patches. Conversely, warm temperatures reduced nesting success in small grassland patches but increased nesting success in large patches. Mechanisms underlying these differences may be patch‐size‐induced variation in microclimates and predator activity. Although the exact cause is unclear, large grassland patches, the most common metric of grassland conservation, appears to moderate the effects of weather on grassland‐bird demography and could be an effective component of climate‐change adaptation.

Conservation Biology↗
USGS2024

Reframing conservation audiences from individuals to social beings

Environmental practitioners often develop communications and behavior change interventions that conceptualize individuals as consumers or as other limited, standalone personae. This view neglects the role of conservation audiences as social beings with complex social relationships and networks, potentially resulting in lost opportunities to increase the effectiveness of conservation interventions. We offer a reframing of individuals as members of social networks who can influence others through their many different societal roles. This framing may help individuals recognize their potential to affect large-scale societal structures and empower them to contribute to systemic changes. In practice, conservation organizations might increase the impact and reach of their behavioral interventions by targeting social referents (individuals or groups who people reference for accepted and desired behaviors) and leveraging interpersonal relationships. This includes encouraging individuals to make use of their networks to discuss issues such as biodiversity loss with a variety of acquaintances to normalize them as a topic of conversation. We argue that organizations can leverage the power of social networks to amplify change and promote the message that people change the world through their social ties, thereby inspiring audiences to further engage in conservation behaviors.

Conservation Letters↗
USGS2022

Priorities for translating goodwill between movement ecologists and conservation practitioners into effective collaboration

Addressing ongoing biodiversity loss requires collaboration between conservation scientists and practitioners. However, such collaboration has proved challenging. Despite the potential importance of tracking animal movements for conservation, reviews of the tracking literature have identified a gap between the academic discipline of movement ecology and its application to biodiversity conservation. Through structured conversations with movement ecologists and conservation practitioners, we aimed to understand whether the identified gap is also perceived in practice, and if so, what factors hamper collaboration and how these factors can be remediated. We found that both groups are motivated and willing to collaborate. However, because their motivations differ, there is potential for misunderstandings and miscommunications. In addition, external factors such as funder requirements, academic metrics, and journal scopes may limit the applicability of scientific results in a conservation setting. Potential solutions we identified included improved communication and better presentation of results, acknowledging each other's motivations and desired outputs, and adjustment of funder priorities. Addressing gaps between science and implementation can enhance collaboration and support conservation action to address the global biodiversity crisis more effectively.

Conservation Science and Practice↗
USGS2023

Seventy questions of importance to the conservation of the North Central grasslands of the United States in a changing climate

Successful conservation of ecosystems in a changing climate requires actionable research that directly supports the rethinking and revising of management approaches to address changing risks and opportunities. As an important first step toward actionable research, we reviewed and synthesized grassland management-related documents to identify broadly shared questions that, if answered, would help to support collective conservation of the grasslands in the northern Great Plains of the United States in a changing climate. A Management Priorities Working Group reviewed 183 grassland-relevant management documents and identified 70 questions. Feedback was iteratively provided by a Climate and Ecology Working Group, an Advisory Committee, and representatives from grassland management agencies and organizations. The identified questions generally fall under 15 topics: land conversion; restoration; disturbance regimes; woody encroachment; herbaceous invasives; grazing; water quality, quantity, and availability; animal species; private land; public understanding; legal and policy changes; economic incentives; coordination across management entities; accessibility of science and tools; and novel ways of thinking. These questions can inform a research agenda for researchers looking to conduct actionable science in the Great Plains grassland ecosystems. Both the approach and the questions presented here can also be adapted and applied in other regions and ecosystems.

Colorado, Kansas, Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota,↗
USGS2024

Flexible migration and habitat use strategies of an endangered waterbird during hydrological drought

Wildlife species confront threats from climate and land use change, exacerbating the influence of extreme climatic events on populations and biodiversity. Migratory waterbirds are especially vulnerable to hydrological drought via reduced availability of surface water habitats. We assessed how whooping cranes ( Grus americana ) modified habitat use and migration strategies during drought to evaluate their resilience to changing conditions and adaptive capacity. We categorized >8000 night-roost sites used by 146 cranes from 2010 to 2022 and examined relative use during non-drought, moderate drought, and extreme drought conditions. We found cultivated and uncultivated palustrine and lacustrine wetlands were generally used less during droughts than non-drought conditions. Conversely, impounded palustrine and lacustrine systems and rivers served more frequently as drought refugia (i.e., used more during drought than non-drought conditions). Night roosts occurred primarily on private lands (86% overall); public land use decreased with latitude and increased with drought severity, with greatest use (56%) occurring during severe autumn drought in the southern Great Plains. Quantifying use of identified critical habitats in the United States indicated that Cheyenne Bottoms State Waterfowl Management Area and Quivira National Wildlife Refuge were used less during drought, and the Central Platte River and Salt Plains National Wildlife Refuge received similar use during drought compared to non-drought conditions. Our findings provide insights into compensatory use of habitats, where impounded surface water may function in a complementary fashion with natural wetlands. Collectively, these and other types of wetlands distributed across the migration corridor provided a reliable network of habitat available across the Great Plains. A diversity of wetlands available during variable environmental conditions would be useful in supporting continued recovery of whooping cranes and likely have benefits for a wide array of migratory birds.

Conservation Science and Practice↗
USGS2025

Climate change refugia hotspots for priority species: A case study in East Africa

Natural resource managers and policymakers need actionable climate data to guide conservation decisions. Conserving climate change refugia, areas relatively buffered from contemporary climate change, is increasingly considered an effective strategy for adaptation. Despite tropical species facing heightened vulnerability to climate change, the tropics remain underserved in climate adaptation research. We coproduced with Tanzanian partners the first comprehensive assessment of climate change refugia across Tanzania through extensive consultation, in-person conversations, and field visits to priority ecosystems, ensuring our analysis addressed local conservation needs and decision-making contexts. We developed species distribution models for 33 terrestrial animal species using maximum entropy and boosted regression tree algorithms. We projected future suitable habitats for SSP126 and SSP585, for 2011–2040 and 2071–2100, using GFDL Earth System and the UK Earth System models. More than half under SSP126 and 79% of focal species under SSP585 lost their suitable habitat by 2100. Serengeti National Park, Northern Highlands Forest Reserve, and the Eastern Arc Mountains emerged as key climate change refugia, while other protected areas, including Kigosi and Ugalla River National Parks, had no climate change refugia. This assessment provides actionable insights for Tanzania's conservation prioritization while identifying critical research gaps in western and montane ecosystems.

Conservation Science and Practice↗
USGS2018

Predicting effects of large-scale reforestation on native and exotic birds

Aim Ecological restoration is critical for recovering biodiversity and ecosystem services, yet designing interventions to achieve particular outcomes remains fraught with challenges. In the extensive regions where non-native species are firmly established, it is unlikely that historical conditions can be fully reinstated. To what degree, and how rapidly, can human-dominated areas be shifted via restoration into regimes that benefit target species, communities or processes? Location We explore this question in a >20-year-old reforestation effort underway at Hakalau Forest National Wildlife Refuge in montane Hawaii. This large-scale planting of Acacia koa trees is designed to secure populations of globally threatened bird species by transitioning the site rapidly from pasture to native forest. Methods We surveyed all forest birds in multiple corridors of young planted trees, remnant corridors of mature trees along gulches and at sites within mature forest. Using a Bayesian hierarchical approach, we identified which factors (distance from forest, habitat type and surrounding tree cover) had the most important influence on native and exotic bird abundance in the reforestation area. Results We found that 90% of native and exotic bird species responded quickly, occupying corridors of native trees approximately a decade after planting. However, native and exotic forest birds responded to markedly different characteristics of the reforested area. Native bird abundance was strongly predicted by proximity to mature forest and remnant corridors; conversely, exotic bird abundance was best predicted by overall tree cover throughout the area reforested. Main conclusions Our results demonstrate that large-scale tree planting in corridors adjacent to mature forest can catalyse rapid recovery (both increased abundance and expanded distribution) of forest birds and that it is possible to design reforestation to benefit native species in novel ecosystems.

Hawaii↗
USGS2020

Frequency of extreme freeze events controls the distribution and structure of black mangroves (Avicennia germinans) near their northern range limit in coastal Louisiana

Aim Climate change is expected to result in the tropicalization of coastal wetlands in the northern Gulf of Mexico, as warming winters allow tropical mangrove forests to expand their distribution poleward at the expense of temperate salt marshes. Data limitations near mangrove range limits have hindered understanding of the effects of winter temperature extremes on mangrove distribution and structure. Here, we investigated the influence of extreme freeze events on the abundance, height and coverage of black mangroves ( Avicennia germinans ) near their northern range limit in Louisiana. Location Coastal Louisiana, USA. Methods We quantified the relationships between the frequency of extreme freeze events and A. germinans abundance, height and coverage using: (a) mangrove observation points recorded via aerial surveys from a fixed‐wing aircraft; (b) 30 years of temperature data; and (c) mangrove mortality and leaf damage temperature thresholds. We used freeze frequency data and mangrove–climate relationships to evaluate and spatially depict the risk of A. germinans freeze damage across Louisiana. Results We identified strong negative relationships between the frequency of extreme freeze events and A. germinans abundance, height and coverage. Avicennia germinans is most abundant, tall and continuous along the south‐eastern outer coast of Louisiana, where the frequency of extreme freeze events is reduced (i.e., lower risk of mangrove freeze damage) by the buffering effects of comparatively warm Gulf of Mexico waters. Conversely, the risk of A. germinans freeze damage has historically been very high across Louisiana's Chenier Plain and within more inland wetlands in the Deltaic Plain. Main conclusions Our analyses advance understanding of how the frequency of extreme freeze events controls the distribution, height and coverage of A. germinans near its northern range limit. In addition to informing climate‐smart coastal restoration efforts, our findings can be used to better anticipate and prepare for the tropicalization of temperate wetlands due to climate change.

Louisiana↗
USGS2022

Increased landscape disturbance and streamflow variability threaten fish biodiversity in the Red River catchment, USA

Aim Stream fish distributions are hypothesized to be strongly associated with landscape characteristics at multiple scales. Variation in flow regimes and intensity of landscape disturbance are associated with stream fish distributions; however, relationships are poorly understood in many high-diversity regions. Our objective was to identify occurrence relationships between fish distributions and streamflow and landscape characteristics in the south-central United States. Location Our study area was the central Red River catchment in Oklahoma, Texas and Arkansas, USA. Methods We used existing fish surveys to model the occurrence of a diverse, warmwater assemblage among hydraulic response units (HRUs). We used multispecies occupancy modelling to identify variation in occurrence probability among 111 stream fishes in relation to landscape disturbance and flow regime characteristics. Results We found occurrence relationships with landscape disturbance and 11 metrics comprising all flow-regime components. The relationships varied within both major species groups and some genera. Frequency and duration were the most common metrics underlying flow regime relationships. More common stream fishes tended to be positively associated with higher levels of landscape disturbance and flow regime metrics representing variability; conversely, narrow-ranged fishes tended to be negatively associated. Occurrence relationships with flow metrics representing high-flow events were predominately negative. As expected, many species were strongly associated with ecoregion with landscape disturbance and flow relationships held constant. Main conclusions Our study informs land use and water management decisions and stream fish conservation at multiple spatial scales. Collectively, the findings suggest potential homogenization of the Red River fish assemblage with increased landscape disturbance and streamflow variability. A reduction in landscape disturbance and maintenance of natural flow patterns at coarser scales may benefit endemic and narrow-ranged fishes. Our findings also help guide finer-scale land use and water management decisions by identifying stream network areas with a high occurrence probability of less tolerant fishes.

Arkansas, Oklahoma, Texas↗
USGS2022

Riparian buffers provide refugia during secondary forest succession

Aim Secondary forests regenerating from human disturbance are increasingly becoming a predominant forest type in many regions, and they play a significant role in forest community dynamics. Understanding the factors that underlie the variation in species responses during secondary succession is important for understanding community assembly and biodiversity monitoring and management. Because species vary in ecology and behaviour, responses to ecosystem change should vary among species. Here, we show that habitat type (riparian, upland), phylogeny, and species traits mediate anuran and lizard probability of occurrence and species richness in pasture and secondary forest. Location Sarapiquí and Osa Peninsula, Costa Rica. Methods We used phylogenetic occupancy models to estimate assemblage-level and species-specific responses to forest succession in 30 chronosequence sites that include pasture, secondary forest regenerating from pasture, and mature forest sites. Results For the majority of species, we found increasing probability of occurrence in upland habitats as forest regenerated from pasture to secondary forest and similar probability of occurrence in riparian habitats across pasture, secondary forest, and mature forest sites. Species' responses to forest stage were phylogenetically correlated, and the trend was especially strong for anuran response to pasture sites. Anurans with lentic larval habitat had a positive occupancy response to pasture upland habitat, and anurans with lotic larval habitat had a variable response to different forest stages compared to mature forest. Main Conclusions Our study, which focuses on sites that are minimally isolated from mature forest reference sites, indicated that anuran and lizard occupancy rapidly recovered to a level similar to mature forest in a relatively short time span (approximately 20 years). Riparian habitats are key ecosystem features in our system and provide refugia for organisms in early successional stages. Maintenance of vegetation along streams shows that we can mitigate forest conversion by maintaining riparian buffers.

Osa Peninsula, Sarapiquí↗
USGS2018

Gaps in kelp cover may threaten the recovery of California sea otters

Despite more than a century of federal protection, the California sea otter Enhydra lutris nereis remains threatened under the U.S. Endangered Species Act (ESA), and the population has not appreciably expanded its range in two decades. Here, we examine a novel dataset of 725 sea otter live strandings from 1984–2015 to gain insights into demographic and environmental factors underlying threats to sea otter recovery. Using multinomial logistic regression to evaluate spatiotemporal patterns of stranding causes, we demonstrate that increases in stranding rates, particularly outside the range center, are related to a substantial increase in shark bites. By contrast, trauma linked to human activities has declined dramatically, and now accounts for less than 5% of stranding cases. Within the range core, where the sea otter population seems regulated by prey availability, symptoms of energetic stress represent more than 63% of all strandings and are strongly associated with high sea otter density. Conversely, in range peripheries, the majority of strandings are caused by shark bite and neurological disease. Notably, these threats are virtually absent where nearshore habitat is characterized by at least 10% kelp canopy cover. Our analyses reveal that declining kelp cover may therefore constrain the population's spatial expansion and recovery in two key ways. Absence of kelp intensifies density‐independent threats in the range peripheries, and likely limits dispersal of reproductive females, which depend on kelp canopy for nursery habitat. These results highlight the significance of both top‐down and bottom‐up processes in population dynamics, and inform an ecosystem‐based approach to conservation planning.

California↗
USGS2024

Human activity drives establishment, but not invasion, of non-native plants on islands

Island ecosystems are particularly susceptible to the impacts of invasive species. Many rare and endangered species that are endemic to islands are negatively affected by invasions. Past studies have shown that the establishment of non-native species on islands is related to native plant richness, habitat heterogeneity, island age, human activity, and climate. However, it is unclear whether the factors promoting establishment (i.e. the formation of self-sustaining populations) also promote subsequent invasion (i.e. spread and negative impacts). Using data from 4308 non-native plant species across 46 islands and archipelagos globally, we examined which biogeographic characteristics influence established and invasive plant richness using generalized linear models nested within piecewise structural equation models. Our results indicate that anthropogenic land use (i.e. human modification) is strongly associated with establishment but not invasion, that climate (maximum monthly temperature) is strongly associated with invasion but not establishment, and that habitat heterogeneity (represented by maximum elevation and island area) is strongly associated with both establishment and invasion. Island isolation explains native plant richness well, but is not associated with established and invasive plant richness, likely due to anthropogenic introductions. We conclude that anthropogenic land use on islands is likely to be a proxy for the number of introductions (i.e. propagule pressure), which is more important for establishment than invasion. Conversely, islands with more diverse habitats and favorable (warm) climate conditions are likely to contain more available niche space (i.e. ‘vacant niches’) which create opportunities for both establishment and invasion. By evaluating multiple stages of the invasion process, we differentiate between the biogeographic characteristics that influence plant establishment (which does not necessarily lead to ecological impacts) versus those that influence subsequent plant invasion (which does lead to negative impacts).

Ecography↗