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Modeling wetland plant community response to assess water-level regulation scenarios in the Lake Ontario-St. Lawrence River basin

The International Joint Commission has recently completed a five-year study (2000-2005) to review the operation of structures controlling the flows and levels of the Lake Ontario - St. Lawrence River system. In addition to addressing the multitude of stakeholder interests, the regulation plan review also considers environmental sustainability and integrity of wetlands and various ecosystem components. The present paper outlines the general approach, scientific methodology and applied management considerations of studies quantifying the relationships between hydrology and wetland plant assemblages (% occurrence, surface area) in Lake Ontario and the Upper and Lower St. Lawrence River. Although similar study designs were used across the study region, different methodologies were required that were specifically adapted to suit the important regional differences between the lake and river systems, range in water-level variations, and confounding factors (geomorphic types, exposure, sediment characteristics, downstream gradient of water quality, origin of water masses in the Lower River). Performance indicators (metrics), such as total area of wetland in meadow marsh vegetation type, that link wetland response to water levels will be used to assess the effects of different regulation plans under current and future (climate change) water-supply scenarios.

Environmental Monitoring and Assessment↗

The areal extent of brown shrimp habitat suitability in Mobile Bay, Alabama, USA: Targeting vegetated habitat restoration

The availability of wetlands and shallow water habitats significantly influences Gulf of Mexico (GOM) penaeid shrimp fishery productivity. However, the GOM region has the highest rate of wetland loss in the USA. Protection and management of these vital GOM habitats are critical to sustainable shrimp fisheries. Brown shrimp (Farfantepenaeus aztecus) are a major component of GOM fisheries. We present an approach for estimating the areal extent of suitable habitat for post-larval and juvenile brown shrimp in Mobile Bay, Alabama, using an existing habitat suitability index model for the northern GOM calculated from probabilistic survey of water quality and sediment data, land cover data, and submerged aquatic vegetation coverages. This estuarine scale approach is intended to support targeted protection and restoration of these habitats. These analyses indicate that approximately 60% of the area of Mobile Bay is categorized as suitable to near optimal for post-larval and juvenile shrimp and 38% of the area is marginally to minimally suitable. We identify potential units within Mobile Bay for targeted restoration to improve habitat suitability. ?? 2010 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.

Environmental Monitoring and Assessment↗

An index of reservoir habitat impairment

Fish habitat impairment resulting from natural and anthropogenic watershed and in-lake processes has in many cases reduced the ability of reservoirs to sustain native fish assemblages and fisheries quality. Rehabilitation of impaired reservoirs is hindered by the lack of a method suitable for scoring impairment status. To address this limitation, an index of reservoir habitat impairment (IRHI) was developed by merging 14 metrics descriptive of common impairment sources, with each metric scored from 0 (no impairment) to 5 (high impairment) by fisheries scientists with local knowledge. With a plausible range of 5 to 25, distribution of the IRHI scores ranged from 5 to 23 over 482 randomly selected reservoirs dispersed throughout the USA. The IRHI reflected five impairment factors including siltation, structural habitat, eutrophication, water regime, and aquatic plants. The factors were weakly related to key reservoir characteristics including reservoir area, depth, age, and usetype, suggesting that common reservoir descriptors are poor predictors of fish habitat impairment. The IRHI is rapid and inexpensive to calculate, provides an easily understood measure of the overall habitat impairment, allows comparison of reservoirs and therefore prioritization of restoration activities, and may be used to track restoration progress. The major limitation of the IRHI is its reliance on unstandardized professional judgment rather than standardized empirical measurements. ?? 2010 US Government.

Environmental Monitoring and Assessment↗

Using maintenance records from a long-term sensor monitoring network to evaluate the relationship between maintenance schedule and data quality

Sensor-based environmental monitoring networks are beginning to provide the large-scale, long-term data required to address important fundamental and applied questions in ecology. However, the data quality from deployed sensors can be difficult and costly to ensure. In this study, we use maintenance records from the 12-year history of Louisiana’s Coastwide Reference Monitoring System (CRMS) to assess the relationship between various dimensions of data quality and the frequency of field visits to the sensors. We use hierarchical Bayesian models to estimate the probability of missing data, the probability that a corrective offset of the sensor is required, and the magnitude of required offsets for water elevation and salinity data. We compared these estimates to predetermined risk thresholds to the help identify maintenance schedules that balanced the efficient use of labor resources without sacrificing data quality. We found that the relationship between data quality and increasing maintenance interval varied across metrics. Additionally, for most metrics, the maintenance interval when the metric’s credible interval and risk threshold intersected varied throughout the year and with wetland type. These results suggest that complex maintenance schedules, in which field visits vary in frequency throughout the year and with environmental context, are likely to provide the best tradeoff between labor cost and data quality. This analysis demonstrates that quantitative assessment of maintenance records can positively impact the sustainability of long-term data collection projects by helping identify new potential efficiencies in monitoring program management.

Louisiana↗

Irrigated agriculture influences selenium levels in an endangered marsh bird

Selenium bioaccumulation in aquatic food webs poses risks to wildlife, particularly in wetlands receiving irrigation runoff. The Salton Sea, California’s largest lake, is primarily sustained by agricultural drainage. This drainage creates wetland habitat along the lakeshore that many bird species depend on, including the federally endangered Yuma Ridgway’s rail ( Rallus obsoletus yumanensis ). However, these marshes may pose an ecological trap – attracting rails despite high selenium exposure. We captured rails during the 2020–2023 breeding seasons and compared rail selenium levels within three types of marshes (fed with irrigation runoff, Colorado River water, or groundwater). We collected blood, breast feathers, and head feathers of rails in all three water sources for selenium comparisons. We tagged adult rails with GPS transmitters to locate nests and foraging locations where we collected eggshells, unhatched eggs, and prey. We assessed selenium exposure by collecting multiple prey species commonly eaten by rails in all three water sources. Selenium concentrations varied among sampling locations. Selenium concentrations in most sample types were predominately influenced by water source and marsh inflow velocity (sometimes in combination with marsh size). Distance to inflow, however, did not influence selenium concentrations in any sample type. Selenium concentrations were highest in agricultural-fed marshes compared to river-fed and spring-fed marshes. Increased marsh inflow velocities resulted in lower selenium concentrations. Given the risk of an ecological trap, our results suggest that supplementing wetlands with Colorado River water could mitigate selenium bioaccumulation in Yuma Ridgway’s rails.

California↗

Panarchy use in environmental science for risk and resilience planning

Environmental sciences have an important role in informing sustainable management of built environments by providing insights about the drivers and potentially negative impacts of global environmental change. Here, we discuss panarchy theory, a multi-scale hierarchical concept that accounts for the dynamism of complex socio-ecological systems, especially for those systems with strong cross-scale feedbacks. The idea of panarchy underlies much of system resilience, focusing on how systems respond to known and unknown threats. Panarchy theory can provide a framework for qualitative and quantitative research and application in the environmental sciences, which can in turn inform the ongoing efforts in socio-technical resilience thinking and adaptive and transformative approaches to management.

Environment Systems and Decisions↗

Effectiveness of lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush) suppression in Lake Pend Oreille, Idaho: 2006–2016

The nonnative lake trout ( Salvelinus namaycush Walbaum, 1792) population in Lake Pend Oreille, Idaho increased exponentially during 1999–2006. This led to an unsustainable level of predation mortality on kokanee ( Oncorhynchus nerka Walbaum, 1792), increased the conservation threat to native bull trout ( Salvelinus confluentus Suckley, 1859), and jeopardized the popular recreational fishery for kokanee and rainbow trout ( Oncorhynchus mykiss Walbaum, 1792). In response, lake trout were suppressed since 2006 using incentivized angling, gill netting, and trap netting. From 2006 through 2016, 193,982 lake trout were removed (50% by gill netting; 44% by angling; 6% by trap netting). During this period, age-8 + (adult) lake trout abundance declined by 64%, age-3 (recruit) abundance declined by 56%, and mean total annual mortality ( A ) was 31.1%. Lake trout did not show evidence of a density-dependent response. Kokanee did not collapse and rebounded to abundances not observed since before lake trout expansion. Bull trout abundance declined during suppression, but the population was sustained. Lake trout suppression allowed a harvest fishery for kokanee and trophy fishery for rainbow trout to be restored. We conclude that suppression can be an effective management action for mitigating effects of nonnative lake trout in a large, deep lake.

Hydrobiologia↗

The origin of shallow lakes in the Khorezm Province, Uzbekistan, and the history of pesticide use around these lakes

The economy of the Khorezm Province in Uzbekistan relies on the large-scale agricultural production of cotton. To sustain their staple crop, water from the Amu Darya is diverted for irrigation through canal systems constructed during the early to mid-twentieth century when this region was part of the Soviet Union. These diversions severely reduce river flow to the Aral Sea. The Province has >400 small shallow (<3 m deep) lakes that may have originated because of this intensive irrigation. Sediment cores were collected from 12 lakes to elucidate their origin because this knowledge is critical to understanding water use in Khorezm. Core chronological data indicate that the majority of the lakes investigated are less than 150 years old, which supports a recent origin of the lakes. The thickness of lacustrine sediments in the cores analyzed ranged from 20 to 60 cm in all but two of the lakes, indicating a relatively slow sedimentation rate and a relatively short-term history for the lakes. Hydrologic changes in the lakes are evident from loss on ignition and pollen analyses of a subset of the lake cores. The data indicate that the lakes have transitioned from a dry, saline, arid landscape during pre-lake conditions (low organic carbon content) and low pollen concentrations (in the basal sediments) to the current freshwater lakes (high organic content), with abundant freshwater pollen taxa over the last 50&ndash;70 years. Sediments at the base of the cores contain pollen taxa dominated by Chenopodiaceae and Tamarix , indicating that the vegetation growing nearby was tolerant to arid saline conditions. The near surface sediments of the cores are dominated by Typha/Sparganium , which indicate freshwater conditions. Increases in pollen of weeds and crop plants indicate an intensification of agricultural activities since the 1950s in the watersheds of the lakes analyzed. Pesticide profiles of DDT (dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane) and its degradates and &gamma;-HCH (gamma-hexachlorocyclohexane), which were used during the Soviet era, show peak concentrations in the top 10 cm of some of the cores, where estimated ages of the sediments (1950&ndash;1990) are associated with peak pesticide use during the Soviet era. These data indicate that the lakes are relatively young (mostly <150 years old) and that without irrigation and canal inputs from the Amu Darya, the lakes would not exist as freshwater lakes.

Khorezm Province↗

Exploring subtle land use and land cover changes: A framework for future landscape studies

Land cover and land use changes can have a wide variety of ecological effects, including significant impacts on soils and water quality. In rural areas, even subtle changes in farming practices can affect landscape features and functions, and consequently the environment. Fine-scale analyses have to be performed to better understand the land cover change processes. At the same time, models of land cover change have to be developed in order to anticipate where changes are more likely to occur next. Such predictive information is essential to propose and implement sustainable and efficient environmental policies. Future landscape studies can provide a framework to forecast how land use and land cover changes is likely to react differently to subtle changes. This paper proposes a four step framework to forecast landscape futures at fine scales by coupling scenarios and landscape modelling approaches. This methodology has been tested on two contrasting agricultural landscapes located in the United States and France, to identify possible landscape changes based on forecasting and backcasting agriculture intensification scenarios. Both examples demonstrate that relatively subtle land cover and land use changes can have a large impact on future landscapes. Results highlight how such subtle changes have to be considered in term of quantity, location, and frequency of land use and land cover to appropriately assess environmental impacts on water pollution (France) and soil erosion (US). The results highlight opportunities for improvements in landscape modelling.

Landscape Ecology↗

Prioritizing landscapes for grassland bird conservation with hierarchical community models

Context Given widespread population declines of birds breeding in North American grasslands, management that sustains wildlife while supporting rancher livelihoods is needed. However, management effects vary across landscapes, and identifying areas with the greatest potential bird response to conservation is a pressing research need. Objectives We developed a hierarchical modeling approach to study grassland bird response to habitat factors at multiple scales and levels. We then identified areas to prioritize for implementing a bird-friendly ranching program. Methods Using bird survey data from grassland passerine species and 175 sites (2009–2018) across northeast Wyoming, USA, we fit hierarchical community distance sampling models and evaluated drivers of site-level density and regional-level distribution. We then created spatially-explicit predictions of bird density and distribution for the study area and predicted outcomes from pasture-scale management scenarios. Results Cumulative overlap of species distributions revealed areas with greater potential community response to management. Within each species’ potential regional-level distribution, the grassland bird community generally responded negatively to cropland cover and vegetation productivity at local scales (up to 10 km of survey sites). Multiple species declined with increasing bare ground and litter cover, shrub cover, and grass height measured within sites. Conclusions We demonstrated a novel approach to multi-scale and multi-level prioritization for grassland bird conservation based on hierarchical community models and extensive population monitoring. Pasture-scale management scenarios also suggested the examined community may benefit from less bare ground cover and shorter grass height. Our approach could be extended to other bird guilds in this region and beyond.

Wyoming↗

Using landscape metrics to characterize towns along an urban-rural gradient

Context Urban-rural gradients are useful tools when examining the influence of human disturbances on ecological, social and coupled systems, yet the most commonly used gradient definitions are based on single broad measures such as housing density or percent forest cover that fail to capture landscape patterns important for conservation. Objectives We present an approach to defining urban–rural gradients that integrates multiple landscape pattern metrics related to ecosystem processes important for natural resources and wildlife sustainability. Methods We develop a set of land cover composition and configuration metrics and then use them as inputs to a cluster analysis process that, in addition to grouping towns with similar attributes, identifies exemplar towns for each group. We compare the outcome of the cluster-based urban-rural gradient typology to outcomes for four commonly-used rule-based typologies and discuss implications for resource management and conservation. Results The resulting cluster-based typology defines five town types (urban, suburban, exurban, rural, and agricultural) and notably identifies a bifurcation along the gradient distinguishing among rural forested and agricultural towns. Landscape patterns (e.g., core and islet forests) influence where individual towns fall along the gradient. Designations of town type differ substantially among the five different typologies, particularly along the middle of the gradient. Conclusions Understanding where a town occurs along the urban-rural gradient could aid local decision-makers in prioritizing and balancing between development and conservation scenarios. Variations in outcomes among the different urban-rural gradient typologies raise concerns that broad-measure classifications do not adequately account for important landscape patterns. We suggest future urban-rural gradient studies utilize more robust classification approaches.

Connecticut. Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, ↗

Landscape- and local- level variables affect monarchs in Midwest grasslands

Context It is estimated that over one billion milkweed stems need to be restored to sustain the eastern North American migratory population of monarch butterflies; where and in what context the stems should be placed on the landscape is key to addressing habitat deficits. Objectives We assessed how the amount of appropriate habitat surrounding a particular patch of monarch habitat affects monarch presence and reproduction. To ensure that habitat restoration efforts are targeted towards areas that maximize monarch population growth, it is important to understand the effects of landscape heterogeneity on monarch occurrence in habitat patches (i.e. grasslands with milkweeds) across the landscape. Methods Over two summers (2018–2019), we surveyed monarch adults, larvae, and eggs at sixty grassland sites in Wisconsin that varied in patch size and landscape context (proportion grassland, forest edge density, and road density). We also estimated milkweed density and floral richness to characterize local patch quality. Results Adult monarch abundance was highest at patches with the lowest proportion of surrounding grassland and lowest road density, and was heavily influenced by patch quality variables. Egg and larva density in a patch increased with milkweed density and floral richness within a patch. Patch size was unrelated to monarch abundance. Conclusions These results suggest that optimal sites for monarch habitat restoration are within landscapes which contain little habitat and that high milkweed density and floral richness and abundance should be conservation goals.

Wisconsin↗

Supporting climate adaptation for rural Mekong River Basin communities in Thailand

Climate change impacts on large river basins, such as the Mekong River Basin (MRB), are complex due to shared governance and interconnected socioeconomic areas, making them highly vulnerable to change. The MRB, spanning six countries including Thailand, is crucial for the food and economic security of > 60 million people. However, in 2021, Thailand was ranked as the 9th highest risk country affected by climate change. To integrate climate adaptation in Thailand's MRB, we examined the effects of climate change on rapidly developing farmer and fisher communities in northeastern Thailand and explored feasible adaptation options. Using an interdisciplinary approach that included literature review, participatory action methods, and the resist-accept-direct (RAD) framework, we found that climate change is projected to increase temperatures, precipitation, extreme events, erosion, and water clarity, while decreasing heavy sediment transport. These changes negatively impact agriculture, fisheries, human health, and tourism. We identified several adaptation strategies across environmental, ecological, and human health categories to accommodate local needs, such as preventing habitat degradation (e.g., from dams and deforestation), providing fish refuge and passage, and supporting technical capacity. Community-driven adaptation planning and implementation are essential for supporting global sustainable development in a changing climate.

Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Ch↗

Volatility of bitumen prices and implications for the industry

Sustained crude oil price increases have led to increased investment in and production of Canadian bitumen to supplement North American oil supplies. For new projects, the evaluation of profitability is based on a prediction of the future price path of bitumen and ultimately light/medium crude oil. This article examines the relationship between the bitumen and light crude oil prices in the context of a simple error-correction economic-adjustment model. The analysis shows bitumen prices to be significantly more volatile than light crude prices. Also, the dominant effect of an oil price shock on bitumen prices is immediate and is amplified, both in absolute terms and percentage price changes. It is argued that the bitumen industry response to such market risks will likely be a realignment toward vertical integration via new downstream construction, mergers, or on a de facto basis by the establishment of alliances. ?? 2008 International Association for Mathematical Geology.

Natural Resources Research↗

Commercial possibilities for stranded conventional gas from Alaska's North Slope

Stranded gas resources are defined for this study as gas resources in discrete accumulations that are not currently commercially producible, or producible at full potential, for either physical or economic reasons. Approximately 35 trillion cubic feet (TCF) of stranded gas was identified on Alaska’s North Slope. The commercialization of this resource requires facilities to transport gas to markets where sales revenue will be sufficient to offset the cost of constructing and operating a gas delivery system. With the advent of the shale gas revolution, plans for a gas pipeline to the conterminous US have been shelved (at least temporarily) and the State and resource owners are considering a liquefied natural gas (LNG) export project that targets Asian markets. This paper focuses on competitive conditions for Asian gas import markets by estimating delivered costs of competing supplies from central Asia, Russia, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Australia in the context of a range of import gas demand projections for the period from 2020 to 2040. These suppliers’ costs are based on the cost of developing, producing, and delivering to markets tranches of the nearly 600 TCF of recoverable gas from their own conventional stranded gas fields. The results of these analyses imply that Alaska’s gas exports to Asia will likely encounter substantial competitive challenges. The sustainability of Asia’s oil-indexed LNG pricing is also discussed in light of a potentially intense level of competition.

Alaska↗

Fertilizer consumption and energy input for 16 crops in the United States

Fertilizer use by U.S. agriculture has increased over the past few decades. The production and transportation of fertilizers (nitrogen, N; phosphorus, P; potassium, K) are energy intensive. In general, about a third of the total energy input to crop production goes to the production of fertilizers, one-third to mechanization, and one-third to other inputs including labor, transportation, pesticides, and electricity. For some crops, fertilizer is the largest proportion of total energy inputs. Energy required for the production and transportation of fertilizers, as a percentage of total energy input, was determined for 16 crops in the U.S. to be: 19–60% for seven grains, 10–41% for two oilseeds, 25% for potatoes, 12–30% for three vegetables, 2–23% for two fruits, and 3% for dry beans. The harvested-area weighted-average of the fraction of crop fertilizer energy to the total input energy was 28%. The current sources of fertilizers for U.S. agriculture are dependent on imports, availability of natural gas, or limited mineral resources. Given these dependencies plus the high energy costs for fertilizers, an integrated approach for their efficient and sustainable use is needed that will simultaneously maintain or increase crop yields and food quality while decreasing adverse impacts on the environment.

Natural Resources Research↗

A volcanic activity alert-level system for aviation: Review of its development and application in Alaska

An alert-level system for communicating volcano hazard information to the aviation industry was devised by the Alaska Volcano Observatory (AVO) during the 1989–1990 eruption of Redoubt Volcano. The system uses a simple, color-coded ranking that focuses on volcanic ash emissions: Green—normal background; Yellow—signs of unrest; Orange—precursory unrest or minor ash eruption; Red—major ash eruption imminent or underway. The color code has been successfully applied on a regional scale in Alaska for a sustained period. During 2002–2011, elevated color codes were assigned by AVO to 13 volcanoes, eight of which erupted; for that decade, one or more Alaskan volcanoes were at Yellow on 67 % of days and at Orange or Red on 12 % of days. As evidence of its utility, the color code system is integrated into procedures of agencies responsible for air-traffic management and aviation meteorology in Alaska. Furthermore, it is endorsed as a key part of globally coordinated protocols established by the International Civil Aviation Organization to provide warnings of ash hazards to aviation worldwide. The color code and accompanying structured message (called a Volcano Observatory Notice for Aviation) comprise an effective early-warning message system according to the United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction. The aviation color code system currently is used in the United States, Russia, New Zealand, Iceland, and partially in the Philippines, Papua New Guinea, and Indonesia. Although there are some barriers to implementation, with continued education and outreach to Volcano Observatories worldwide, greater use of the aviation color code system is achievable.

Alaska↗

Legumes in prairie restoration: evidence for wide cross-nodulation and improved inoculant delivery

Background and aims Prairie restoration aims to create self-sustaining, resilient prairies that ameliorate biodiversity loss and soil deterioration associated with conversion of native grasslands to agriculture. Legumes are a key component of the nitrogen-limited prairie ecosystem. Evidence suggests that lack of suitable rhizobia may explain legume absence from restored prairies. This study explores effects of novel alternative inoculant delivery methods on: (a) prairie legume establishment, (b) soil biological properties, and (c) inoculant strain ability to nodulate the host over time. Methods Alternative inoculation methods for seven legume species were tested in a replicated field experiment. Legume establishment, microbial biomass carbon and nitrogen, and rhizobial inoculant strain recovery were measured over a 3-year period. Results Legume species richness in the second growing season was enhanced by a soil-applied granular clay inoculant, while seed-applied powdered peat inoculation was generally ineffective. When Dalea rhizobia were recovered 3-year after planting, only 2 % from the seed-applied inoculation treatment identified with the inoculant strains, whereas this amount ranged from 53 to 100 % in the other inoculation treatments. Some legumes established unexpectedly effective symbioses with strains not originally intended for them. Conclusions Results provide new insights on inoculation of native legumes, especially when a mix of seeds is involved and the restoration targets harsh environments.

Minnesota↗