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At least 1,027 records · Page 57Linked to original sources
USGS2017

Atmospheric rivers emerge as a global science and applications focus

Recent advances in atmospheric sciences and hydrology have identified the key role of atmo-spheric rivers (ARs) in determining the distribution of strong precipitation events in the midlatitudes. The growth of the subject is evident in the increase in scientific publications that discuss ARs (Fig. 1a). Combined with related phenomena, that is, warm conveyor belts (WCBs) and tropical moisture exports (TMEs), the frequency, position, and strength of ARs determine the occurrence of floods, droughts, and water resources in many parts of the world. A conference at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography in La Jolla, California, recently gathered over 100 experts in atmospheric, hydrologic, oceanic, and polar science; ecology; water management; and civil engineering to assess the state of AR science and to explore the need for new information. This first International Atmospheric Rivers Conference (IARC) allowed for much needed introductions and interactions across fields and regions, for example, participants came from five continents, and studies covered ARs in six continents and Greenland (Fig. 1b). IARC also fostered discussions of the status and future of AR science, and attendees strongly supported the idea of holding another IARC at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography in the summer of 2018.

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society↗
USGS2016

Resetting the bar: Establishing baselines for persistent contaminants after Hurricane Sandy in the coastal environments of New Jersey and New York, USA

In the immediate aftermath of natural disasters, public health officials and other first responders engage in many activities to protect the public and ecosystems in the affected area. These activities include critical tasks designed to minimize adverse consequences resulting from chemical and microbial contaminant exposures, such as acute disease incidence and transmission. However, once these urgent priorities have been met and situations requiring immediate attention have been stabilized, questions regarding the potential longer term threats to humans and ecosystems associated with persistent contaminant exposures remain. Research conducted to address these questions is frequently challenged by the lack of available baseline contaminant information collected before the event for comparison and perspective. In addition, deployments of field crews and collection of environmental samples typically occur days, weeks, or months after the event. Consequently, during and in the aftermath of disasters, public health agencies commonly advise the public to disinfect water, avoid contact with disturbed infrastructure (such as sewer lines), and (or) refrain from use of recreational waters, with the general focus on acute health threats; however, the persisting effects of such releases on local recreational waters, fisheries, and other estuarine habitats are often undetermined.

New Jersey, New York↗
USGS2010

Shallow subsurface structure of the Wasatch fault, Provo segment, Utah, from integrated compressional and shear-wave seismic reflection profiles with implications for fault structure and development

Integrated vibroseis compressional and experimental hammer-source, shear-wave, seismic reflection profiles across the Provo segment of the Wasatch fault zone in Utah reveal near-surface and shallow bedrock structures caused by geologically recent deformation. Combining information from the seismic surveys, geologic mapping, terrain analysis, and previous seismic first-arrival modeling provides a well-constrained cross section of the upper ~500 m of the subsurface. Faults are mapped from the surface, through shallow, poorly consolidated deltaic sediments, and cutting through a rigid bedrock surface. The new seismic data are used to test hypotheses on changing fault orientation with depth, the number of subsidiary faults within the fault zone and the width of the fault zone, and the utility of integrating separate elastic methods to provide information on a complex structural zone. Although previous surface mapping has indicated only a few faults, the seismic section shows a wider and more complex deformation zone with both synthetic and antithetic normal faults. Our study demonstrates the usefulness of a combined shallow and deeper penetrating geophysical survey, integrated with detailed geologic mapping to constrain subsurface fault structure. Due to the complexity of the fault zone, accurate seismic velocity information is essential and was obtained from a first-break tomography model. The new constraints on fault geometry can be used to refine estimates of vertical versus lateral tectonic movements and to improve seismic hazard assessment along the Wasatch fault through an urban area. We suggest that earthquake-hazard assessments made without seismic reflection imaging may be biased by the previous mapping of too few faults. ?? 2010 Geological Society of America.

Geological Society of America Bulletin↗
USGS2014

Using surface creep rate to infer fraction locked for sections of the San Andreas fault system in northern California from alignment array and GPS data

Surface creep rate, observed along five branches of the dextral San Andreas fault system in northern California, varies considerably from one section to the next, indicating that so too may the depth at which the faults are locked. We model locking on 29 fault sections using each section’s mean long‐term creep rate and the consensus values of fault width and geologic slip rate. Surface creep rate observations from 111 short‐range alignment and trilateration arrays and 48 near‐fault, Global Positioning System station pairs are used to estimate depth of creep, assuming an elastic half‐space model and adjusting depth of creep iteratively by trial and error to match the creep observations along fault sections. Fault sections are delineated either by geometric discontinuities between them or by distinctly different creeping behaviors. We remove transient rate changes associated with five large (M≥5.5) regional earthquakes. Estimates of fraction locked, the ratio of moment accumulation rate to loading rate, on each section of the fault system provide a uniform means to inform source parameters relevant to seismic‐hazard assessment. From its mean creep rates, we infer the main branch (the San Andreas fault) ranges from only 20%±10% locked on its central creeping section to 99%–100% on the north coast. From mean accumulation rates, we infer that four urban faults appear to have accumulated enough seismic moment to produce major earthquakes: the northern Calaveras (M 6.8), Hayward (M 6.8), Rodgers Creek (M 7.1), and Green Valley (M 7.1). The latter three faults are nearing or past their mean recurrence interval.

California↗
USGS2017

Combining multiple earthquake models in real time for earthquake early warning

The ultimate goal of earthquake early warning (EEW) is to provide local shaking information to users before the strong shaking from an earthquake reaches their location. This is accomplished by operating one or more real‐time analyses that attempt to predict shaking intensity, often by estimating the earthquake’s location and magnitude and then predicting the ground motion from that point source. Other EEW algorithms use finite rupture models or may directly estimate ground motion without first solving for an earthquake source. EEW performance could be improved if the information from these diverse and independent prediction models could be combined into one unified, ground‐motion prediction. In this article, we set the forecast shaking at each location as the common ground to combine all these predictions and introduce a Bayesian approach to creating better ground‐motion predictions. We also describe how this methodology could be used to build a new generation of EEW systems that provide optimal decisions customized for each user based on the user’s individual false‐alarm tolerance and the time necessary for that user to react.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗
USGS1997

Clastic rocks associated with the Midcontinent rift system in Iowa

The Middle Proterozoic Midcontinent Rift System (MRS) of North America is a failed rift that formed in response to region-wide stresses about 1,100 Ma. In Iowa, the MRS is buried beneath 2,200?3,500 ft of Paleozoic and Mesozoic sedimentary rocks and Quaternary glaciogenic deposits. An extremely large volume of sediments was deposited within basins associated with the rift at several stages during its development. Although the uplift of a rift-axial horst resulted in the erosional removal of most of these clastic rocks from the central region of the MRS in Iowa, thick sequences are preserved in a series of horst-bounding basins. Recent studies incorporating petrographic analysis, geophysical modeling, and other analytical procedures have led to the establishment of a preliminary stratigraphy for these clastic rocks and interpretations of basin geometries. This information has allowed the refinement of existing theories and history of MRS formation in Iowa. Additionally, drill samples previously interpreted as indicating the existence of early Paleozoic basins overlying the Proterozoic MRS basins were re-examined. Samples previously interpreted as deep-lying Paleozoic rocks are now known to have caved from upper levels of the drillhole and were out of stratigraphic position. No deep Paleozoic basins exist in this area. These investigations led to the development of petrographic parameters useful in differentiating the Proterozoic MRS Red clastics from Paleozoic clastic rocks having similar lithologies.

Bulletin↗
USGS1995

The active southwest margin of the Colorado Plateau: Uplift of mantle origin

During Cenozoic time, the Colorado Plateau was raised about 2 km above sea level. The most-recent and best-documented uplift of the plateau (∼1 km) has been concentrated at its southwest margin between 6 and 1 Ma, whereas the eastern Colorado Plateau may have been at high elevations since Eocene time. To better understand the recent tectonic activity at the southwest margin of the Colorado Plateau, we compile detailed crustal thickness and density information from seismic and gravity data for a region that includes northwest Arizona and the southern tip of Nevada. This information is used to isolate the mantle contribution to uplift. We find that there is relatively low density mantle underlying the southern margin of the plateau in northwest Arizona, which could result from about 60–80 km of thinning of the dense mantle lithosphere combined with about 100 °C of heating through a 100-km-thick mantle layer. The available estimates from earthquake-source seismology in or near the study area are compatible with this estimate of lithospheric thinning. We speculate that uplift may result from subduction-related thinning of the continental lithosphere.

Geological Society of America Bulletin↗
USGS2014

U.S. Geological Survey 2013 assessment of undiscovered resources in the Bakken and Three Forks Formations of the U.S. Williston Basin Province

The Upper Devonian Three Forks and Upper Devonian to Lower Mississippian Bakken Formations comprise a major United States continuous oil resource. Current exploitation of oil is from horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing of the Middle Member of the Bakken and upper Three Forks, with ongoing exploration of the lower Three Forks, and the Upper, Lower, and Pronghorn Members of the Bakken Formation. In 2008, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) estimated a mean of 3.65 billion bbl of undiscovered, technically recoverable oil resource within the Bakken Formation. The USGS recently reassessed the Bakken Formation, which included an assessment of the underlying Three Forks Formation. The Pronghorn Member of the Bakken Formation, where present, was included as part of the Three Forks assessment due to probable fluid communication between reservoirs. For the Bakken Formation, five continuous and one conventional assessment units (AUs) were defined. These AUs are modified from the 2008 AU boundaries to incorporate expanded geologic and production information. The Three Forks Formation was defined with one continuous and one conventional AU. Within the continuous AUs, optimal regions of hydrocarbon recovery, or “sweet spots,” were delineated and estimated ultimate recoveries were calculated for each continuous AU. Resulting undiscovered, technically recoverable resource estimates were 3.65 billion bbl for the five Bakken continuous oil AUs and 3.73 billion bbl for the Three Forks Continuous Oil AU, generating a total mean resource estimate of 7.38 billion bbl. The two conventional AUs are hypothetical and represent a negligible component of the total estimated resource (8 million barrels of oil).

AAPG Bulletin↗
USGS1986

Seismicity map of the state of Arizona

This map is one of a series of seismicity maps produced by the U. S. Geological Survey that show earthquake data of individual states or groups of states at the scale of 1:1,000,000. This map shows only those earthquakes with epicenters located within the boundaries of Arizona, even though earthquakes in nearby states or countries may have been felt or may have caused damage in Arizona. The data in table 1 were used to compile the seismicity map; these data are a corrected, expanded, and updated (through 1982) version of the data used by Algermissen (1969) for a study of seismic risk in the United States. The locations and intensities of some earthquakes were revised and intensities were assigned where none had been before. Many earthquakes were added to the original list from new data sources as well as from some old data sources that had not been previously used. The data in table 1 represent best estimates of the location of the epicenter, magnitude, and intensity of each earthquake on the basis of historical and current information. Some of the aftershocks from large earthquakes are listed, but not all, especially for earthquakes that occurred before seismic instruments were universally used. Table 1 includes earthquakes reported felt in Yuma, Arizona that had no corroborating reports from other areas. These events are listed with coordinates (32.7°N., 114.6° W.) near Yuma even though it is suspected that they may have actually occurred in the Imperial Valley, California or Baja California, Mexico. Very few earthquakes have been instrumentally located near Yuma and it is believed that most historical felt reports correspond to earthquakes that occurred in the seismic zone extending from the Gulf of California northward into California. It is known that some earthquakes located graphically from phase data prior to epicenter determinations by electronic computer were erroneously located in southern Arizona and actually had locations in the Gulf of California or northern Mexico. For detailed descriptions of the effects of earthquakes in Arizona see Bulletin 193, Arizona earthquakes, 1776-1980 (reference 343) which lists the localities where the earthquakes were felt and the effects at each place. This publication also includes isoseismal maps for 41 events. The latitude and longitude coordinates of each epicenter were rounded to the nearest tenth of a degree and sorted so that all identical locations were grouped and counted. These locations are represented on the map by a triangle. The number of earthquakes at each location is shown on the map by the arabic number to the right of the triangle. The Roman numeral to the left of the triangle is the maximum Modified Mercalli intensity (Wood and Neumann, 1931) of al 1 earthquakes with epicenters at that geographic location. The absence of an intensity value indicates that no intensities have been assigned to earthquakes at that location. The year shown below each triangle is the latest year for which the maximum intensity was recorded.

Arizona↗
USGS2022

Peak-flow and low-flow magnitude estimates at defined frequencies and durations for nontidal streams in Delaware

Reliable estimates of the magnitude of peak flows in streams are required for the economical and safe design of transportation and water conveyance structures. In addition, reliable estimates of the magnitude of low flows at defined frequencies and durations are needed for meeting regulatory requirements, quantifying base flows in streams and rivers, and evaluating time of travel and dilution of toxic spills. This report, in cooperation with the Delaware Department of Transportation and the Delaware Geological Survey, presents methods for estimating the magnitude of peak flows and low flows at defined frequencies and durations on nontidal streams in Delaware, at locations both monitored by streamflow-gage sites and ungaged. Methods are presented for estimating (1) the magnitude of peak flows for return periods ranging from 2 to 500 years (50-percent to 0.2-percent annual-exceedance probability), and (2) the magnitude of low flows as applied to 7-, 14-, and 30-consecutive day low-flow periods with recurrence intervals of 2, 10, and 20 years (50-, 10-, and 5-percent annual non-exceedance probabilities). These methods are applicable to watersheds that exhibit a full range of development conditions in Delaware. The report also describes StreamStats, a web application that allows users to easily obtain peak-flow and low-flow magnitude estimates for user-selected locations in Delaware. Peak-flow and low-flow magnitude estimates for ungaged sites are obtained using statistical regression analysis through a process known as regionalization, where information from a group of streamflow-gage sites within a region forms the basis for estimates for ungaged sites within the same region. Ninety-four streamflow-gage sites in and near Delaware with at least 10 years of nonregulated annual peak-flow data were used for the peak-flow regression analysis, a subset of the 121 sites for which peak-flow estimates were computed. These sites included both continuous-record streamflow-gage sites as well as partial record sites. Forty-five streamflow-gage sites with at least 10 years of nonregulated low-flow data available were used for the low-flow regression analyses, a subset of the 68 sites for which low-flow estimates were computed. Estimates for gaged sites are obtained by combining (1) the station peak-flow statistics (mean, standard deviation, and skew) and peak-flow estimates using the recent Bulletin 17C guidelines that incorporate the Expected Moments Algorithm with (2) regional estimates of peak-flow magnitude derived from regional regression equations and regional skew derived from sites with records greater than or equal to 35 years. Example peak-flow estimate calculations using the methods presented in the report are given for (1) ungaged sites, (2) gaged sites, (3) sites upstream or downstream from a gaged location, and (4) sites between gaged locations. Estimates for low-flow gaged sites are obtained by combining (1) the station low-flow statistics (mean, standard deviation, and skew) and low-flow estimates with (2) regional estimates of low-flow magnitude derived from regional regression equations. Example low-flow estimate calculations using the methods presented in the report are given for (1) ungaged sites, (2) gaged sites, (3) sites upstream or downstream from a gaged location, and (4) sites between gaged locations. A total of 54 sites in the Coastal Plain region were used to develop peak-flow regressions for the region and 40 sites were used for the Piedmont region. Similarly, 24 sites were used for low-flow regression equation development in the Coastal Plain, with 21 in the Piedmont. Peak and low-flow site inclusion in the Coastal Plain tended to be more restricted with tidal influence and ranges of basin characteristics, including drainage area, limiting regression equation development and application. Regional regression equations for peak flows and low flows, as applicable to ungaged sites in the Piedmont and Coastal Plain Physiographic Provinces in Delaware, are presented. Peak-flow regression equations used variables that quantified drainage area, basin slope, percent area with well-drained soils, percent area with poorly drained soils, impervious area, and percent area of surface water storage in estimating peak-flow estimates, whereas low-flow regression equations used only drainage area and percent poorly drained soils in the estimation of low flows. Average standard errors for peak-flow regressions tended to be lower than those for low- flow regressions, with lower errors in the Piedmont region for both peak- and low-flow regressions. For peak-flow estimates, a sensitivity analysis of Piedmont regression equation estimates to changes in impervious area is also presented. Additional topics associated with the analyses performed during the study are discussed, including (1) the availability and description of 32 basin and climatic characteristics considered during the development of the regional regression equations; (2) the treatment of increasing trends in the annual peak-flow series identified at 18 gaged sites and inclusion in or exclusion from the regional analysis; (3) regional skew analysis and determination of regression regions; (4) sample adjustments and removal of sites owing to regulation and redundancy; and (5) a brief comparison of peak- and low-flow estimates at gages used in previous studies.

Delaware↗
USGS1991

Real-time Seismic Amplitude Measurement (RSAM): a volcano monitoring and prediction tool

Seismicity is one of the most commonly monitored phenomena used to determine the state of a volcano and for the prediction of volcanic eruptions. Although several real-time earthquake-detection and data acquisition systems exist, few continuously measure seismic amplitude in circumstances where individual events are difficult to recognize or where volcanic tremor is prevalent. Analog seismic records provide a quick visual overview of activity; however, continuous rapid quantitative analysis to define the intensity of seismic activity for the purpose of predicing volcanic eruptions is not always possible because of clipping that results from the limited dynamic range of analog recorders. At the Cascades Volcano Observatory, an inexpensive 8-bit analog-to-digital system controlled by a laptop computer is used to provide 1-min average-amplitude information from eight telemetered seismic stations. The absolute voltage level for each station is digitized, averaged, and appended in near real-time to a data file on a multiuser computer system. Raw realtime seismic amplitude measurement (RSAM) data or transformed RSAM data are then plotted on a common time base with other available volcano-monitoring information such as tilt. Changes in earthquake activity associated with dome-building episodes, weather, and instrumental difficulties are recognized as distinct patterns in the RSAM data set. RSAM data for domebuilding episodes gradually develop into exponential increases that terminate just before the time of magma extrusion. Mount St. Helens crater earthquakes show up as isolated spikes on amplitude plots for crater seismic stations but seldom for more distant stations. Weather-related noise shows up as low-level, long-term disturbances on all seismic stations, regardless of distance from the volcano. Implemented in mid-1985, the RSAM system has proved valuable in providing up-to-date information on seismic activity for three Mount St. Helens eruptive episodes from 1985 to 1986 (May 1985, May 1986, and October 1986). Tiltmeter data, the only other telemetered geophysical information that was available for the three dome-building episodes, is compared to RSAM data to show that the increase in RSAM data was related to the transport of magma to the surface. Thus, if tiltmeter data is not available, RSAM data can be used to predict future magmatic eruptions at Mount St. Helens. We also recognize the limitations of RSAm data. Two examples of RSAM data associated with phreatic or shallow phreatomagmatic explosions were not preceded by the same increases in RSAM data or changes in tilt associated with the three dome-building eruptions. ?? 1991 Springer-Verlag.

Bulletin of Volcanology↗
USGS1999

Pennsylvanian carbonate buildups, Paradox basin: Increasing reserves in heterogeneous, shallow-shelf reservoirs

Productive carbonate buildups of Pennsylvanian age in the southern Paradox basin, Utah, contain up to 200 million bbl remaining oil potentially recoverable by enhanced recovery methods. These buildups comprise over 100 satellite fields to the giant Greater Aneth field, where secondary recovery operations thus far have been concentrated. Several types of satellite buildups exist and produce oil from the Desert Creek zone of the Paradox Formation. Many of the relevant fields have undergone early abandonment; wells in Desert Creek carbonate mounds commonly produce at very high initial rates (>1000 bbl/day) and then suffer precipitous declines. An important new study focused on the detailed characterization of five separate reservoirs has resulted in significant information relevant to their future redevelopment. Completed assessment of Anasazi field suggests that phylloid algal mounds, the major productive buildup type in this area, consist of ten separate lithotypes and can be described in terms of a two-level reservoir system with an underlying high-permeability mound-core interval overlain by a lower permeability but volumetrically larger supramound (mound capping) interval. Reservoir simulations and related performance predictions indicate that CO 2 flooding of these reservoirs should have considerable success in recovering remaining oil reserves.

American Association of Petroleum Geologists Bulle↗
USGS2013

Variability of displacement at a point: Implications for earthquake‐size distribution and rupture hazard on faults

To investigate the nature of earthquake‐magnitude distributions on faults, we compare the interevent variability of surface displacement at a point on a fault from a composite global data set of paleoseismic observations with the variability expected from two prevailing magnitude–frequency distributions: the truncated‐exponential model and the characteristic‐earthquake model. We use forward modeling to predict the coefficient of variation (CV) for the alternative earthquake distributions, incorporating factors that would effect observations of displacement at a site. The characteristic‐earthquake model (with a characteristic‐magnitude range of ±0.25) produces CV values consistent with the data (CV∼0.5) only if the variability for a given earthquake magnitude is small. This condition implies that rupture patterns on a fault are stable, in keeping with the concept behind the model. This constraint also bears upon fault‐rupture hazard analysis, which, for lack of point‐specific information, has used global scaling relations to infer variability in average displacement for a given‐size earthquake. Exponential distributions of earthquakes (from M 5 to the maximum magnitude) give rise to CV values that are significantly larger than the empirical constraint. A version of the model truncated at M 7, however, yields values consistent with a larger CV (∼0.6) determined for small‐displacement sites. Although this result allows for a difference in the magnitude distribution of smaller surface‐rupturing earthquakes, it may reflect, in part, less stability in the displacement profile of smaller ruptures and/or the tails of larger ruptures.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗
USGS2001

Geology and natural history of the San Francisco Bay area: A field-trip guidebook

A National Association of Geoscience Teachers Far Western Section (NAGT-FWS) field conference is an ideal forum for learning about the geology and natural history of the San Francisco Bay area. We visit classic field sites, renew old friendships, and make new ones. This collection of papers includes field guides and road logs for all of the Bay-area trips held during the NAGT-FWS 2001 Fall Field Conference and supplemental chapters on other aspects of the area’s natural and human history. The trips touch on many aspects of the geology and natural hazards of the Bay area, especially urban problems associated with living on an active tectonic plate margin: earthquake faults, coastal erosion, landslides, and the utilization of land and natural resources. We hope this conference not only provides a two-day learning opportunity for conference participants but that students and educators will use this field guidebook for future teaching and research. Many thanks are due to the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and San José State University (SJSU) for cohosting the conference. We are grateful to each of the field trip leaders for preparing the trips and writing the accompanying guides. We especially appreciate the many hours put in by the guidebook reviewers, Robert I. Tilling (USGS) and Paula Messina (SJSU), and to the USGS Western Publications Group for editing, layout, and web posting. Additional guidebook contributions include articles by John Galloway, Scott Starratt, Page Mosier, and Susan Toussaint. During the conference guest speakers include Robert I. Tilling (USGS Volcano Hazards Team) and Ross Stein (USGS Earthquake Hazards Team). Workshops prepared for the conference include GIS in the classroom, using USGS data by John Vogel (USGS) and Paula Messina (SJSU), and The Best of BAESI (Bay Area Earth Science Institute), a teacher training organization under the direction of Ellen Metzger (SJSU) and Richard Sedlock (SJSU). The conference provides an opportunity to showcase USGS scientific and education resources with self-guided tours of the USGS Library, the Earth Science Information Center (ESIC), the Visitor Center, and various laboratories on the USGS campus and includes a half-day participatory tour of the USGS research vessel the R/V Polaris and the USGS Marine Facility at the Port of Redwood City under the direction of Cynthia L. Brown, Francis Parchaso, and Tara Schraga. Beyond the names mentioned above, a host of USGS and SJSU staff, SJSU students, and NAGT-FWS members contributed to the preparation and orchestration of the conference. We couldn’t have done it alone. Leslie C. Gordon (USGS), Philip W. Stoffer (USGS), and Deborah Harden (SJSU) NAGT-FWS 2001 Fall Field Conference Organizers.

California↗
USGS2002

A record of large earthquakes on the southern Hayward fault for the past 500 years

The Hayward fault, a major branch of the right-lateral San Andreas fault system, traverses the densely populated eastern San Francisco Bay region, California. We conducted a paleoseismic investigation to better understand the Hayward fault's past earthquake behavior. The site is near the south end of Tyson's Lagoon, a sag pond formed in a right step of the fault in Fremont. Because the Hayward fault creeps at the surface, we identified paleoseismic events using features that we judge to be unique to ground ruptures or the result of strong ground motion, such as the presence of fault-scarp colluvial deposits and liquefaction. We correlate the most recent event evidence (E1) to the historical 1868 M 6.9 earthquake that caused liquefaction in the pond and recognize three additional paleoruptures since A.D. 1470 ± 110 yr. Event ages were estimated by chronological modeling, which incorporated historical and stratigraphic information and radiocarbon and pollen data. Modeled, mean age and 95-percentile ranges of the three earlier events are A.D. 1730 (1650-1790) yr (E2), A.D. 1630 (1530-1740) yr (E3), and A.D. 1470 (1360-1580) (E4). The ages of these paleoearthquakes yield a mean recurrence of 130 ± 40 yr. Although the mean recurrence is well determined for the period A.D. 1470-1868, individual intervals are less well determined: E1-E2, 140 +80/-70 yr; E2-E3, 100 +90/-100 yr; and E3-E4, 150 +130/-110 yr.

California↗
USGS1998

Late Quaternary slip on the Santa Cruz Island fault, California

The style, timing, and pattern of slip on the Santa Cruz Island fault were investigated by trenching the fault and by analysis of offset late Quaternary landforms. A trench excavated across the fault at Christi Beach, on the western coast of the island, exposed deformation of latest Pleistocene to Holocene sediments and pre-Quaternary rocks, recording repeated large-magnitude rupture events. The most recent earthquake at this site occurred ca. 5 ka. Coastal terraces preserved on western Santa Cruz Island have been dated using the uranium-series technique and by extrapolation using terrace elevations and the eustatic record. Offset of terraces and other landforms indicates that the Santa Cruz Island fault is predominantly left lateral, having a horizontal slip rate of not more than 1.1 mm/yr and probably about 0.8 mm/yr. The fault also has a smaller reverse component, slipping at a rate of between 0.1 and 0.2 mm/yr. Combined with measurements of slip per event, this information suggests a long-term average recurrence interval of at least 2.7 k.y. and probably 4–5 k.y., and average earthquake magnitudes of Mw 7.2–7.5. Sense of slip, recurrence interval, and earthquake magnitudes calculated here for the Santa Cruz Island fault are very similar to recent results for other faults along the southern margin of the western Transverse Range, including the Malibu Coast fault, the Santa Monica fault, the Hollywood fault, and the Raymond fault, supporting the contention that these faults constitute a continuous and linked fault system, which is characterized by large but relatively infrequent earthquakes.

California↗
USGS2008

Technical Manual for the Geospatial Stream Flow Model (GeoSFM)

The monitoring of wide-area hydrologic events requires the use of geospatial and time series data available in near-real time. These data sets must be manipulated into information products that speak to the location and magnitude of the event. Scientists at the U.S. Geological Survey Earth Resources Observation and Science (USGS EROS) Center have implemented a hydrologic modeling system which consists of an operational data processing system and the Geospatial Stream Flow Model (GeoSFM). The data processing system generates daily forcing evapotranspiration and precipitation data from various remotely sensed and ground-based data sources. To allow for rapid implementation in data scarce environments, widely available terrain, soil, and land cover data sets are used for model setup and initial parameter estimation. GeoSFM performs geospatial preprocessing and postprocessing tasks as well as hydrologic modeling tasks within an ArcView GIS environment. The integration of GIS routines and time series processing routines is achieved seamlessly through the use of dynamically linked libraries (DLLs) embedded within Avenue scripts. GeoSFM is run operationally to identify and map wide-area streamflow anomalies. Daily model results including daily streamflow and soil water maps are disseminated through Internet map servers, flood hazard bulletins and other media.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2013

Black bear density in Glacier National Park, Montana

We report the first abundance and density estimates for American black bears ( Ursus americanus ) in Glacier National Park (NP),Montana, USA.We used data from 2 independent and concurrent noninvasive genetic sampling methods—hair traps and bear rubs—collected during 2004 to generate individual black bear encounter histories for use in closed population mark–recapture models. We improved the precision of our abundance estimate by using noninvasive genetic detection events to develop individual-level covariates of sampling effort within the full and one-half mean maximum distance moved (MMDM) from each bear’s estimated activity center to explain capture probability heterogeneity and inform our estimate of the effective sampling area.Models including the one-halfMMDMcovariate received overwhelming Akaike’s Information Criterion support suggesting that buffering our study area by this distance would be more appropriate than no buffer or the full MMDM buffer for estimating the effectively sampled area and thereby density. Our modelaveraged super-population abundance estimate was 603 (95% CI¼522–684) black bears for Glacier NP. Our black bear density estimate (11.4 bears/100 km2, 95% CI¼9.9–13.0) was consistent with published estimates for populations that are sympatric with grizzly bears (U. arctos) and without access to spawning salmonids. Published 2013. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Montana↗