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At least 1,027 records · Page 57Linked to original sources
USGS2006

Sensitivity of potential evapotranspiration and simulated flow to varying meteorological inputs, Salt Creek watershed, DuPage County, Illinois

The Lamoreux Potential Evapotranspiration (LXPET) Program computes potential evapotranspiration (PET) using inputs from four different meteorological sources: temperature, dewpoint, wind speed, and solar radiation. PET and the same four meteorological inputs are used with precipitation data in the Hydrological Simulation Program-Fortran (HSPF) to simulate streamflow in the Salt Creek watershed, DuPage County, Illinois. Streamflows from HSPF are routed with the Full Equations (FEQ) model to determine water-surface elevations. Consequently, variations in meteorological inputs have potential to propagate through many calculations. Sensitivity of PET to variation was simulated by increasing the meteorological input values by 20, 40, and 60 percent and evaluating the change in the calculated PET. Increases in temperatures produced the greatest percent changes, followed by increases in solar radiation, dewpoint, and then wind speed. Additional sensitivity of PET was considered for shifts in input temperatures and dewpoints by absolute differences of ?10, ?20, and ?30 degrees Fahrenheit (degF). Again, changes in input temperatures produced the greatest differences in PET. Sensitivity of streamflow simulated by HSPF was evaluated for 20-percent increases in meteorological inputs. These simulations showed that increases in temperature produced the greatest change in flow. Finally, peak water-surface elevations for nine storm events were compared among unmodified meteorological inputs and inputs with values predicted 6, 24, and 48 hours preceding the simulated peak. Results of this study can be applied to determine how errors specific to a hydrologic system will affect computations of system streamflow and water-surface elevations.

Illinois↗
USGS2012

Changes in water budgets and sediment yields from a hypothetical agricultural field as a function of landscape and management characteristics--A unit field modeling approach

Crop agriculture occupies 13 percent of the conterminous United States. Agricultural management practices, such as crop and tillage types, affect the hydrologic flow paths through the landscape. Some agricultural practices, such as drainage and irrigation, create entirely new hydrologic flow paths upon the landscapes where they are implemented. These hydrologic changes can affect the magnitude and partitioning of water budgets and sediment erosion. Given the wide degree of variability amongst agricultural settings, changes in the magnitudes of hydrologic flow paths and sediment erosion induced by agricultural management practices commonly are difficult to characterize, quantify, and compare using only field observations. The Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model was used to simulate two landscape characteristics (slope and soil texture) and three agricultural management practices (land cover/crop type, tillage type, and selected agricultural land management practices) to evaluate their effects on the water budgets of and sediment yield from agricultural lands. An array of sixty-eight 60-year simulations were run, each representing a distinct natural or agricultural scenario with various slopes, soil textures, crop or land cover types, tillage types, and select agricultural management practices on an isolated 16.2-hectare field. Simulations were made to represent two common agricultural climate regimes: arid with sprinkler irrigation and humid. These climate regimes were constructed with actual climate and irrigation data. The results of these simulations demonstrate the magnitudes of potential changes in water budgets and sediment yields from lands as a result of landscape characteristics and agricultural practices adopted on them. These simulations showed that variations in landscape characteristics, such as slope and soil type, had appreciable effects on water budgets and sediment yields. As slopes increased, sediment yields increased in both the arid and humid environments. However, runoff did not increase with slope in the arid environment as was observed in the humid environment. In both environments, clayey soils exhibited the greatest amount of runoff and sediment yields while sandy soils had greater recharge and lessor runoff and sediment yield. Scenarios simulating the effects of the timing and type of tillage practice showed that no-till, conservation, and contouring tillages reduced sediment yields and, with the exception of no-till, runoff in both environments. Changes in land cover and crop type simulated the changes between the evapotransporative potential and surface roughness imparted by specific vegetations. Substantial differences in water budgets and sediment yields were observed between most agricultural crops and the natural covers selected for each environment: scrub and prairie grass for the arid environment and forest and prairie grass for the humid environment. Finally, a group of simulations was performed to model selected agricultural management practices. Among the selected practices subsurface drainage and strip cropping exhibited the largest shifts in water budgets and sediment yields. The practice of crop rotation (corn/soybean) and cover cropping (corn/rye) were predicted to increase sediment yields from a field planted as conventional corn.

Scientific Investigations Report↗
USGS2012

Disputes over science and dispute resolution approaches - A survey of Bureau of Reclamation employees

Water resources in parts of the Western United States are over-allocated, which intensifies the pressure to support water management decisions with strong scientific evidence. Because scientific studies sometimes provide uncertain or competing results or recommendations, science can become a source of disputes during decision-making processes. The Bureau of Reclamation (Reclamation) is an important water manager in the Western United States, and Reclamation decision processes are often contested by a variety of affected constituencies. We conducted a Web-based survey of Reclamation employees to determine (1) which types of disputes over science are occurring and how common they are, (2) which approaches have been used by Reclamation to try to resolve these different types of disputes, (3) how useful Reclamation employees find these approaches at resolving these types of disputes, (4) the final outcomes of these disputes and the decision-making processes that were hindered by the disputes over science, and (5) the potential usefulness of several different types of dispute resolution resources that Reclamation could provide for employees that become involved in disputes over science. The calculated minimum response rate for the survey was 59 percent. Twenty-five percent of respondents indicated that they had been involved in a dispute over science while working at Reclamation. Native species and species listed under the Endangered Species Act of 1973 were the most common issue types reported in these disputes over science. Survey respondents indicated that they used a variety of approaches to resolve disputes over science and rated most approaches as either neutral or somewhat helpful in these endeavors. Future research is needed to determine whether there are additional variables underlying these disputes that were not measured in this survey that may identify when dispute resolution methods are most effective, or whether resolving aspects of these disputes, such as differing interpretations of science, is very difficult or impossible regardless of the dispute resolution methods used.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2021

Structured decision making and optimal bird monitoring in the northern Gulf of Mexico

The avian conservation community struggles to design and implement large scale, long-term coordinated bird monitoring programs within the northern Gulf of Mexico due to the complexity of the conservation enterprise in the region; this complexity arises from the diverse stakeholders, multiple jurisdictions, complex ecological processes, myriad habitats, and over 500 species of birds using the region for at least some part of their annual cycle. In addition, long-term monitoring over large spatial scales is difficult because of the need for monitoring data to both (1) evaluate management and restoration outcomes, and (2) provide reliable information about the status and trends of bird populations over time. To address these challenges, the Gulf of Mexico Avian Monitoring Network developed a problem statement: “How can a cost-effective monitoring strategy for the Gulf Coast bird community and ecosystem be developed that evaluates ongoing conservation activities and chronic and acute threats; maximizes learning; and is flexible and holistic enough to detect novel ecological threats and evaluate new and emerging conservation activities?” A structured decision-making framework was then used to articulate and quantify stakeholder values related to the problem statement. One use of the stakeholder values was to develop a regional, strategic plan for bird monitoring, which is presented elsewhere. A formal and complete decision support tool for conservation investments in monitoring and research guided by the stakeholder values is presented in this report. The technical aspects of the stakeholder value model and a portfolio analysis that could be used to guide decision making when allocating resources for monitoring activities is described. Whereas the decision analysis presented here could be useful to any decision maker faced with difficult choices about resource allocation, it is designed for decision makers who request monitoring study proposals and then determine which combination of proposals to fund. The portfolio decision support tool is designed to help funding agencies and organizations identify resource allocation strategies to maximize stated objectives. To begin the decision analysis, an objectives hierarchy and quantitative performance metrics from the values of the Gulf of Mexico bird conservation community were created by a panel of regional stakeholders. Each fundamental objective and sub-objective in the hierarchy is composed of several performance metrics. To test the decision support tool, the authors evaluated a combination of monitoring study proposals written for the region and simulated proposals. Each proposal was scored against the performance metrics and used multi-attribute utility theory to combine the multiple objectives into a measure of total monitoring benefit. The total monitoring benefit and costs of each proposal were then used in a constrained optimization routine to identify optimal monitoring portfolios, that is, a combination of activities that maximizes monitoring benefits while meeting cost and other constraints of interest to stakeholders. A graphical solution based on the concept of Pareto efficiency, which is useful in situations when cost constraints and exact budgets are not known, is also provided. Finally, an evaluation of the sensitivity of the decision-making framework to the weights assigned to objectives by stakeholders is included. This decision support tool allows decision makers to identify an optimal suite of monitoring proposals with a transparent portfolio analysis that includes user-defined constraints (such as costs).

Alabama, Florida, Louisiana, Mississippi, Texas↗
USGS2008

Summary of geologic data and development of A Priori Rupture Models for the Elsinore, San Jacinto, and Garlock faults

This appendix to the WGCEP Earthquake Rate Model 2 summarizes geologic data and documents the development of the rupture models for the Elsinore, San Jacinto, and Garlock faults. For the summary of available geologic data, the documentation is organized by fault and fault segment and includes a summary of slip rates, event timing and recurrence, slip-per-event, and historical seismicity for each segment. This information is compiled from the published literature as well as newer studies that have not yet been published. For the unpublished data, we either are familiar, having visited the paleoseismic sites, or participated in the data collection, or we have solicited the principal investigators at each site for their latest results. While these unpublished results are preliminary, we have chosen to include them because the results were considered in development of the rupture models and it is unlikely that the sites will be formally published before the WGCEP Earthquake Rate Model is finalized. The second part of this document describes the construction of the rupture models used in the WGCEP Earthquake Rate Model 2, and the rationale that went into the construction of these models, with a summary of what types of data were considered when the rupture models were created.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2017

Water quality and bed sediment quality in the Albemarle Sound, North Carolina, 2012–14

The Albemarle Sound region was selected in 2012 as one of two demonstration sites in the Nation to test and improve the design of the National Water Quality Monitoring Council’s National Monitoring Network (NMN) for U.S. Coastal Waters and Tributaries. The goal of the NMN for U.S. Coastal Waters and Tributaries is to provide information about the health of our oceans, coastal ecosystems, and inland influences on coastal waters for improved resource management. The NMN is an integrated, multidisciplinary, and multi-organizational program using multiple sources of data and information to augment current monitoring programs. This report presents and summarizes selected water-quality and bed sediment-quality data collected as part of the demonstration project conducted in two phases. The first phase was an occurrence and distribution study to assess nutrients, metals, pesticides, cyanotoxins, and phytoplankton communities in the Albemarle Sound during the summer of 2012 at 34 sites in Albemarle Sound, nearby sounds, and various tributaries. The second phase consisted of monthly sampling over a year (March 2013 through February 2014) to assess seasonality in a more limited set of constituents including nutrients, cyanotoxins, and phytoplankton communities at a subset (eight) of the sites sampled in the first phase. During the summer of 2012, few constituent concentrations exceeded published water-quality thresholds; however, elevated levels of chlorophyll a and pH were observed in the northern embayments and in Currituck Sound. Chlorophyll a , and metals (copper, iron, and zinc) were detected above a water-quality threshold. The World Health Organization provisional guideline based on cyanobacterial density for high recreational risk was exceeded in approximately 50 percent of water samples collected during the summer of 2012. Cyanobacteria capable of producing toxins were present, but only low levels of cyanotoxins below human health benchmarks were detected. Finally, 12 metals in surficial bed sediments were detected at levels above a published sediment-quality threshold. These metals included chromium, mercury, copper, lead, arsenic, nickel, and cadmium. Sites with several metal concentrations above the respective thresholds had relatively high concentrations of organic carbon or fine sediment (silt plus clay), or both and were predominantly located in the western and northwestern parts of the Albemarle Sound. Results from the second phase were generally similar to those of the first in that relatively few constituents exceeded a water-quality threshold, both pH and chlorophyll a were detected above the respective water-quality thresholds, and many of these elevated concentrations occurred in the northern embayments and in Currituck Sound. In contrast to the results from phase one, the cyanotoxin, microcystin was detected at more than 10 times the water-quality threshold during a phytoplankton bloom on the Chowan River at Mount Gould, North Carolina in August of 2013. This was the only cyanotoxin concentration measured during the entire study that exceeded a respective water-quality threshold. The information presented in this report can be used to improve understanding of water-quality conditions in the Albemarle Sound, particularly when evaluating causal and response variables that are indicators of eutrophication. In particular, this information can be used by State agencies to help develop water-quality criteria for nutrients, and to understand factors like cyanotoxins that may affect fisheries and recreation in the Albemarle Sound region.

North Carolina, Virginia↗
USGS2017

Regional patterns of Mesozoic-Cenozoic magmatism in western Alaska revealed by new U-Pb and 40Ar/39Ar ages

In support of regional geologic framework studies, we obtained 50 new argon-40/argon-39 ( 40 Ar/ 39 Ar) ages and 33 new uranium-lead (U-Pb) ages from igneous rocks of southwestern Alaska. Most of the samples are from the Sleetmute and Taylor Mountains quadrangles; smaller collections or individual samples are from the Bethel, Candle, Dillingham, Goodnews Bay, Holy Cross, Iditarod, Kantishna River, Lake Clark, Lime Hills, McGrath, Medfra, Talkeetna, and Tanana quadrangles. A U-Pb zircon age of 317.7±0.6 million years (Ma) reveals the presence of Pennsylvanian intermediate igneous (probably volcanic) rocks in the Tikchik terrane, Bethel quadrangle. A U-Pb zircon age of 229.5±0.2 Ma from gabbro intruding the Rampart Group of the Angayucham-Tozitna terrane, Tanana quadrangle, confirms and tightens a previously cited Triassic age for this intrusive suite. A fresh mafic dike in Goodnews Bay quadrangle yielded a 40 Ar/ 39 Ar whole rock age of 155.0±1.9 Ma; this establishes a Jurassic or older age for the previously unconstrained (Paleozoic? to Mesozoic?) sandstone unit that it intrudes. A thick felsic tuff in the Gemuk Group in Taylor Mountains quadrangle yielded a U-Pb zircon age of 153.0±2.0 Ma, extending the age of magmatism in this part of the Togiak terrane back into the Late Jurassic. We report three new U-Pb zircon ages between 120 and 110 Ma—112.0±0.9 Ma from syenite in the Candle quadrangle, 114.9±0.3 Ma from orthogneiss assigned to the Ruby terrane in Iditarod quadrangle, and 116.6±0.1 Ma from a gabbro of the Dishna River mafic-ultramafic complex in Iditarod quadrangle. The latter result requires a substantial age revision, from Triassic to Cretaceous, for at least some rocks that have been mapped as the Dishna River mafic-ultramafic complex. A tuff in the Upper Cretaceous Kuskokwim Group yielded a U-Pb zircon (sensitive high-resolution ion microprobe, SHRIMP) age of 88.3±1.0 Ma; we speculate that the eruptive source was an arc along the trend of the Pebble porphyry copper deposit along the Gulf of Alaska continental margin. More than half of the new ages fall between 75 and 65 Ma, confirming the existence, based on conventional potassium-argon (K-Ar) ages, of a 70-Ma igneous flare-up across southwestern Alaska. Our new ages hint that during this pulse, the locus of magmatism shifted toward the Gulf of Alaska, that is, toward a more outboard position. This shift is consistent with the hypothesis that magmatism was the product of rollback of a subducted slab, which at that time would have been the Resurrection Plate. Intrusive rocks in the Taylor Mountains and Sleetmute quadrangles in the age range of 63 to 59 Ma were emplaced shortly before the onset of ridge subduction as dated by near-trench plutons in the adjacent part of the Chugach accretionary complex. Southwestern Alaska at this time would have been positioned above a very young subducted slab belonging to the Resurrection Plate; magmas, in this scenario, were generated near the edge of the slab window related to ridge subduction. A 56.3±0.2 Ma granite in Taylor Mountains quadrangle and a 54.7±0.7 Ma ashfall tuff in McGrath quadrangle were likely emplaced above the Resurrection-Kula slab window, which by this time is inferred to have entered the region. Another ashfall tuff in McGrath quadrangle, at 42.8±0.5 Ma, likely belongs to the Meshik Arc, the product of renewed subduction after inferred passage of the slab window. A 49.0±0.3-Ma rhyolite in Taylor Mountains quadrangle is about the age of the transition from slab window to renewed subduction. Two plutons in the western Alaska Range, at 31.8±0.4 and 30.9±0.6 Ma, belong to a suite of gabbro to peralkaline granite of unknown origin. Finally, a 4.6±0.1-Ma basalt from a flow in Taylor Mountains quadrangle belongs to the Neogene basaltic province of western Alaska. These rocks were erupted in a distal retroarc setting; the cause of magmatism is unknown.

Alaska↗
USGS2008

Development of final a-fault rupture models for WGCEP/ NSHMP Earthquake Rate Model 2

This appendix discusses how we compute the magnitude and rate of earthquake ruptures for the seven Type-A faults (Elsinore, Garlock, San Jacinto, S. San Andreas, N. San Andreas, Hayward-Rodgers Creek, and Calaveras) in the WGCEP/NSHMP Earthquake Rate Model 2 (referred to as ERM 2. hereafter). By definition, Type-A faults are those that have relatively abundant paleoseismic information (e.g., mean recurrence-interval estimates). The first section below discusses segmentation-based models, where ruptures are assumed be confined to one or more identifiable segments. The second section discusses an un-segmented-model option, the third section discusses results and implications, and we end with a discussion of possible future improvements. General background information can be found in the main report.

Open-File Report↗
USGS1950

Fifth special report of the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory of the Hawaiian Volcano Research Association and the U.S. Geological Survey: Abrasion hardness

After reviewing the work of sclerometry, this paper shows that yielding and relative softness are the mechanical basis of what should be called malacometry. The experiments have been made with diamond drills, ring cuts, end millers and grinding wheels. Auerbach's "limited scope of the Mohs list" is quantitatively confirmed. The wear of diamonds is examined. A program is carried out, for rotary or annular abrasion by diamond under three applications of energy, each progressively slower. A selected commercial talc is the control substance of softness value 100. The instruments used are synchronous motors, drill presses, wheel grinders, and watchmaker lathes. Some 200 minerals, woods, metals, glasses and plastics were originally measured. Hardness tables and curves are shown for comparison with volumetric abradability. For a Mohs succession the softer substances abrade relatively more under higher energy of contact friction, and any one substance shows higher relative values under lower energy of attrition; in other words, under slower scratching. An artificially cut diamond octahedron gives more consistent results than a natural crystal, under light pressures. Standard successions of relative abradability measurements do not hold good under different energies of attack. Functions of plasticity, brittleness, cleavage, powder lubricity, ductility and the like introduce various anomalies, and constancy of pressure varies with variable yielding. The supposition that rhythmic instrumental abrading will hold its mechanical constants, while the substance attacked yields in accord with its own surface molecular mobility relative to a control substance, is only approximately true. At low energies the approximation is better than at high, but at high speeds the wear of tool is less. Hence the advantage of using with slow speed a replaceable tool. Substances of different categories such as steels and woods, differ in behavior from minerals. The Mohs System has the great advantage of extending the controls from mineral to mineral up through the whole scale, and is purely qualitative. It is not numerically quantitative at all in terms of equal units. A principal result of this investigation is that 80 per cent of the Mohs Scale, Numbers 3 to 10, are by common consent within 1 per cent of a malacometric scale numbered 1 to 100. The scientists who determined this relation were the sclerometry investigators of the nineteenth century, who mistakenly thought that the wide intervals of sclerometry are between the hard minerals. They used the reciprocals of the measures of yielding. The simple scratch tester finally arrived at is quite different from the instruments of Parts II and III. It eliminates diamond drilling, retains the Mohs controls and utilizes a dental grinding wheel and a modern low speed motor. The object of this research has been to design a simple instrument for many uses, especially for the mechanic's shop. It is planned for manufacture at an early date. The author is indebted to Dr. Earl Ingerson, Chief, Geochemistry and Petrology Branch, for critical correction and approval of this paper, by authority of the Director, U. S. Geological Survey.

Report of the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory↗
USGS2013

Native Prairie Adaptive Management: a multi region adaptive approach to invasive plant management on Fish and Wildlife Service owned native prairies

Much of the native prairie managed by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS) in the Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) of the northern Great Plains is extensively invaded by the introduced cool-season grasses, smooth brome ( Bromus inermis ) and Kentucky bluegrass ( Poa pratensis ). Management to suppress these invasive plants has had poor to inconsistent success. The central challenge to managers is selecting appropriate management actions in the face of biological and environmental uncertainties. In partnership with the FWS, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) developed an adaptive decision support framework to assist managers in selecting management actions under uncertainty and maximizing learning from management outcomes. This joint partnership is known as the Native Prairie Adaptive Management (NPAM) initiative. The NPAM decision framework is built around practical constraints faced by FWS refuge managers and includes identification of the management objective and strategies, analysis of uncertainty and construction of competing decision models, monitoring, and mechanisms for model feedback and decision selection. Nineteen FWS field stations, spanning four states of the PPR, have participated in the initiative. These FWS cooperators share a common management objective, available management strategies, and biological uncertainties. Though the scope is broad, the initiative interfaces with individual land managers who provide site-specific information and receive updated decision guidance that incorporates understanding gained from the collective experience of all cooperators. We describe the technical components of this approach, how the components integrate and inform each other, how data feedback from individual cooperators serves to reduce uncertainty across the whole region, and how a successful adaptive management project is coordinated and maintained on a large scale. During an initial scoping workshop, FWS cooperators developed a consensus management objective: increase the composition of native grasses and forbs on native sod while minimizing cost. Cooperators agreed that decision guidance should be provided annually and should account for local, real-time vegetation conditions observed on the ground. Over the course of development, two prototypes of the decision framework were considered. The final framework recognized four alternative actions that managers could take in any given year: (1) Graze—targeted use of grazing ungulates to achieve defoliation, (2) Burn—application of prescribed fire as the single form of defoliation, (3) Burn/Graze—a combination treatment, and (4) Rest—no action. The study area included northern mixed-grass and tallgrass prairie. Native vegetation in mixed–grass prairie has a strong cool-season component and thus the dominant native species have a phenology similar to that of smooth brome and Kentucky bluegrass, making management of those species challenging. In contrast, tallgrass prairie has a strong warm-season native component, leading to an existence of cool-season windows, periods of time in the fall and spring when cool‐season invasive grass species are actively growing and vulnerable to damage via select management actions, but warm‐season grass species are not active and are thus less susceptible to damage via the same actions. This dichotomy between prairie types necessitated the development of separate but parallel decision support systems for mixed-grass and tallgrass biomes. Management units are parcels of native prairie that receive a single management treatment at any one time over their entire extent. At any particular time, the vegetation state of each management unit is characterized by the amount of cover of native grasses and forbs and the type of invasive grass that is dominant. In addition, each unit has a defoliation state which reflects the number of years since the last defoliation event and an index to how intensively the unit was managed during the previous 7 years. State-transition models are used to predict the state of a management unit in year t+1 from its state in year t and a prescribed management action that was applied between the two monitoring events. Alternative models are built around key uncertainties that make choice of a management action difficult. Three uncertainties revolve around whether the effect of management actions depends on (1) type of dominant invader, (2) past defoliation history, and (3) level of invasion. Two additional uncertainties are considered when choosing a management action for tallgrass units: (4) the effectiveness of grazing within the cool-season window as a surrogate for burning when smooth brome is the dominant invader, and (5) the differential effect of active management outside the window as compared to rest. Because data on the probability of transitioning from one state to another under the various models were lacking, expert opinion and elicitation were used to parameterize the models. In addition, cooperators participated in elicitation exercises to extract their beliefs regarding the value of having native prairie compared to the cost of achieving it. Quantifying the subjective expression of utility in this way allowed for mathematical representation of the management objective into an objective function. By maximizing the objective function, cumulative utility is maximized, leading to the identification of a sequence of decisions that will achieve the management objective. The NPAM system adopted a vegetation monitoring protocol that was rapid, inexpensive, and familiar to many of the cooperators. The monitoring protocol served three purposes: (1) determining current vegetation and defoliation states of each unit, (2) evaluating progress toward the management objective, and (3) assessing predictive performance of the alternative models. The management year runs from September 1 to August 31. Management can be applied anytime during that period and monitoring takes places from late June to mid-August. Cooperators enter vegetation data and management information into a centralized database by August 25 of each year. Given the current state of the system (vegetation and defoliation states) and the current understanding of the system (or the belief state), identifying the current best management decision is a matter of looking up the combination (that is, system state and belief state) in the appropriate (mixed-grass or tallgrass) optimal decision table. Given complete uncertainty at the outset of decision-making, initial assignment of equal belief weights to each model was believed reasonable. The decisions in the optimal decision table that correspond to the current belief state constitute the current optimal decision policy. By August 31 of each year, individual cooperators are provided with a recommended management action for each of their management units for the upcoming management year. Upon receiving the management recommendations for their units, managers consider the recommendation, along with other relevant information, and at some point during the year one of the management alternatives is carried out. This iterative cycle of making and implementing a management decision, predicting the response, monitoring the outcome, comparing predicted and observed outcomes, updating model weights, and recommending a management action for the next cycle is expected to result in an accumulation of weight on a representative model of system dynamics, thereby increasing understanding needed to effectively manage native prairies. The NPAM system is now entering its second full year of complete operation, and represents one of only a few fully implemented applications of adaptive management within the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. NPAM is truly unique in that it originated from the ground up as a result of the leadership and steadfastness of several refuge biologists and managers confronted with a common problem. These biologists recognized that working together across a large landscape presented perhaps the best opportunity for halting and reversing the invasion of native grasslands by non-native cool-season grasses. Importantly, the NPAM system encapsulates the collective thinking and experience of tens if not hundreds of individuals who have battled this vexing problem for much of their careers. The NPAM initiative is rooted in principles of adaptive management, thereby affording the opportunity for grassland managers to pursue management objectives while acquiring information to reduce uncertainty and improve future management. The project introduced a number of technical innovations that will serve as templates for conservation efforts throughout and beyond the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. First, NPAM is an on-the-ground implementation of active adaptive management—possibly the first of its kind in conservation management—in which recommended management actions result from a prospective analysis of future learning (Williams, 1996). Second, by the use of dynamic optimization, NPAM demonstrates how decisions can be made that take into account possible future transitions of the system. Third, NPAM demonstrates how models of partial controllability are an effective means of accommodating unpredictable circumstances that cause a manager to follow a different course than was intended. Finally, the database developed for NPAM is an unparalleled system that enables the rapid integration of data from the field for the generation of ‘just-in-time’ management recommendations. In all, NPAM provides an example of how a science-management partnership can be forged to achieve large-scale conservation objectives.

Minnesota;Montana;North Dakota;South Dakota↗
USGS2023

Groundwater availability, geochemistry, and flow pathways to public-supply wells in the Atlantic Coastal Plain and bedrock aquifers, Aiken County and part of Lexington County, South Carolina, 2015–2019

Between 2015 and 2019, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) studied concerns related to projected increases in demand for groundwater, in collaboration with municipal water providers and county managers within the study area, Aiken County and part of Lexington County, South Carolina. A three-dimensional (3D), numerical groundwater-flow model of the Atlantic Coastal Plain (ACP) aquifers, confining units, and the underlying bedrock aquifer in the study area was constructed using the USGS software program MODFLOW–NWT in conjunction with a groundwater-recharge model using the Soil-Water-Balance (SWB) model. Water budgets for dry (2012) and wet (2015) year conditions, future (2017–2065) groundwater-demand scenarios based on general circulation models (GCMs) of future climates, and future agricultural irrigation demands were simulated. Overall, the GCMs projected increased recharge rates. Simulation of projected increased demand on groundwater by agriculture irrigation indicated little drawdown in the study area. Groundwater-quality samples were collected from representative public-supply wells (PSWs) and analyzed in the field and laboratory. In general, the groundwater in the ACP aquifers is acidic, dilute, and oxic. Conversely, groundwater in the bedrock aquifer was of neutral pH, mineralized, and anoxic. Total-radium concentrations across all PSWs ranged from 0.55 to 6.69 picocuries per liter (pCi/L). Groundwater from some PSWs contained detectable but low concentrations of commonly and historically used volatile organic compounds, such as chloroform, methyl tert -butyl ether (MTBE), cis -1,2-dichloroethylene ( cis -1,2-DCE), 1,1-dichloroethane (1,1-DCA), and 1,1-dichloroethylene (1,1-DCE). The stable isotopes of groundwater sampled from all wells indicate the possibility that groundwater from the bedrock aquifer may discharge into the ACP. Finally, groundwater age-dating results and MODPATH simulations indicate recharge between the 1950s and 1980s for PSWs in the ACP and recharge between the 1940s and 1950s for PSWs in bedrock. Maximum groundwater-flow pathways ranged from 270 to 7,470 feet, with the longest simulated-flow pathway for wells pumped at higher rates.

South Carolina↗
USGS2010

Evidence for a novel marine harmful algal bloom: Cyanotoxin (Microcystin) transfer from land to sea otters

"Super-blooms" of cyanobacteria that produce potent and environmentally persistent biotoxins (microcystins) are an emerging global health issue in freshwater habitats. Monitoring of the marine environment for secondary impacts has been minimal, although microcystin-contaminated freshwater is known to be entering marine ecosystems. Here we confirm deaths of marine mammals from microcystin intoxication and provide evidence implicating land-sea flow with trophic transfer through marine invertebrates as the most likely route of exposure. This hypothesis was evaluated through environmental detection of potential freshwater and marine microcystin sources, sea otter necropsy with biochemical analysis of tissues and evaluation of bioaccumulation of freshwater microcystins by marine invertebrates. Ocean discharge of freshwater microcystins was confirmed for three nutrient-impaired rivers flowing into the Monterey Bay National Marine Sanctuary, and microcystin concentrations up to 2,900 ppm (2.9 million ppb) were detected in a freshwater lake and downstream tributaries to within 1 km of the ocean. Deaths of 21 southern sea otters, a federally listed threatened species, were linked to microcystin intoxication. Finally, farmed and free-living marine clams, mussels and oysters of species that are often consumed by sea otters and humans exhibited significant biomagnification (to 107 times ambient water levels) and slow depuration of freshwater cyanotoxins, suggesting a potentially serious environmental and public health threat that extends from the lowest trophic levels of nutrient-impaired freshwater habitat to apex marine predators. Microcystin-poisoned sea otters were commonly recovered near river mouths and harbors and contaminated marine bivalves were implicated as the most likely source of this potent hepatotoxin for wild otters. This is the first report of deaths of marine mammals due to cyanotoxins and confirms the existence of a novel class of marine "harmful algal bloom" in the Pacific coastal environment; that of hepatotoxic shellfish poisoning (HSP), suggesting that animals and humans are at risk from microcystin poisoning when consuming shellfish harvested at the land-sea interface.

California↗
USGS2024

Annotated bibliography of scientific research relevant to oil and gas reclamation best management practices in the western United States, published from 1969 through 2020

Integrating recent scientific knowledge into management decisions supports effective natural resource management and can lead to better resource outcomes. However, finding and accessing scientific knowledge can be time consuming and costly. To assist in this process, the U.S. Geological Survey has created a series of annotated bibliographies on topics of management concern for lands in the western United States (U.S.). Oil and gas development on public lands is a long-standing and substantial component of local and regional economies and has expanded in recent decades, particularly on public lands in the western U.S. This development is associated with extensive networks of pipelines, roads, and processing facilities, across which reclamation is Federally mandated following initial well pad development (“interim” reclamation) and once resource extraction is complete (“final” reclamation). Reclamation is critical for recovering ecological services to energy-affected lands, including vegetation productivity, wildlife habitat, water and air quality, and soil stability (for example, resistance to wind and water erosion). However, reclamation of oil and gas affected lands in the western U.S. has proved challenging due to an array of regulatory and environmental factors, such as minimally developed soils, short growing seasons, herbivory, high winds, invasive species, rugged terrain, and in particular, arid climates associated with low total precipitation, high evapotranspiration rates, and highly variable precipitation patterns. We compiled and summarized journal articles, government reports, technical reports, proceedings, and theses and dissertations relevant to oil and gas reclamation. We constrained our search to products published on or before December 31, 2020 but did not limit our search by a starting date; the earliest product resulting from this effort was published in March 1969. Second, we manually scanned the last 15 years (2005-2020) of tables of contents in journals, bibliographies, and proceedings of which we were aware would contain articles highly relevant to this bibliography. We carried out the search for these products through multiple means: (1) performing a structured search of two reference databases, (2) examining articles published since 2005 in highly relevant scientific journals and conference proceedings, and (3) reviewing additional material suggested by authors of products identified in steps 1 and 2. Our search was intentionally broad in order to identify as much relevant work as possible, much of which is professionally applied and tested within the industry of oil and gas reclamation, but which remains unpublished in scientific journals. We refined the initial list of products by removing: (1) duplicates, (2) products not written in English, (3) products that were not relevant to the arid ecosystems of western North America, (4) products that were not released as research, data products, or review articles in journals or as formal scientific reports, and (5) products with data which were not relevant to reclamation of oil and gas-affected lands, or for which the study did not present new data, findings, or syntheses relevant to reclamation of oil and gas-affected lands. We summarized each product using a consistent structure (background, objectives, methods, location, findings, and implications) and assigned standardized management topics to each. Management topics are intended to aid online searching within the bibliography and are described in more detail in the Methods Section of this report; they include what type of disturbance the product addresses (well pads, mining, pipelines), what aspect of oil and gas reclamation they pertain to (practices, standards, monitoring), what type of data are present in the product (for instance soil or vegetation recovery data), and an indication if the product were from a source other than a published, peer-reviewed outlet (such as dissertations or unpublished professional reports – these are identified as grey literature). The review process for this annotated bibliography included an initial internal colleague review of each summary, requesting input on each summary from an author of the original product, and a formal peer-review. Our initial searches resulted in 3,197 total products, of which 290 met our criteria for inclusion. “Reclamation Practices” is by far the management topic most addressed, followed by “Reclamation Monitoring,” for example, products assessing what and how monitoring methods are used to track and measure reclamation outcome. This document may be accessed at https://doi.org/10.3133/ofr20231068 or from the U.S. Geological Survey Publication Warehouse ( https://pubs.usgs.gov/ ). The 1-page product summaries herein will also be used to create a bibliography at https://apps.usgs.gov/science-for-resource-managers that includes links to each original product, where available, and in which subject matter will be searchable by topic, location, and year. The studies compiled and summarized here may inform planning and management actions that seek to reclaim landscapes across the western U.S. which have been affected by oil and gas development.

Open-File Report↗
USGS1991

Use of the Priestley-Taylor evaporation equation for soil water limited conditions in a small forest clearcut

The Priestley-Taylor equation, a simplification of the Penman equation, was used to allow calculations of evapotranspiration under conditions where soil water supply limits evapotranspiration. The Priestley-Taylor coefficient, α, was calculated to incorporate an exponential decrease in evapotranspiration as soil water content decreases. The method is appropriate for use when detailed meteorological measurements are not available. The data required to determine the parameter for the α coefficient are net radiation, soil heat flux, average air temperature, and soil water content. These values can be obtained from measurements or models. The dataset used in this report pertains to a partially vegetated clearcut forest site in southwest Oregon with soil depths ranging from 0.48 to 0.70 m and weathered bedrock below that. Evapotranspiration was estimated using the Bowen ratio method, and the calculated Priestley-Taylor coefficient was fitted to these estimates by nonlinear regression. The calculated Priestley-Taylor coefficient (α′) was found to be approximately 0.9 when the soil was near field capacity (0.225 cm 3 cm −3 ). It was not until soil water content was less than 0.14 cm 3 cm −3 that soil water supply limited evapotranspiration. The soil reached a final residual water content near 0.05 cm 3 cm −3 at the end of the growing season.

Agricultural and Forest Meteorology↗
USGS2006

The changing shapes of active volcanoes: History, evolution, and future challenges for volcano geodesy

At the very heart of volcanology lies the search for the 'plumbing systems' that form the inner workings of Earth’s active volcanoes. By their very nature, however, the magmatic reservoirs and conduits that underlie these active volcanic systems are elusive; mostly they are observable only through circumstantial evidence, using indirect, and often ambiguous, surficial measurements. Of course, we can infer much about these systems from geologic investigation of materials brought to the surface by eruptions and of the exposed roots of ancient volcanoes. But how can we study the magmatic processes that are occurring beneath Earth’s active volcanoes? What are the geometry, scale, physical, and chemical characteristics of magma reservoirs? Can we infer the dynamics of magma transport? Can we use this information to better forecast the future behavior of volcanoes? These questions comprise some of the most fundamental, recurring themes of modern research in volcanology. The field of volcano geodesy is uniquely situated to provide critical observational constraints on these problems. For the past decade, armed with a new array of technological innovations, equipped with powerful computers, and prepared with new analytical tools, volcano geodesists have been poised to make significant advances in our fundamental understanding of the behavior of active volcanic systems. The purpose of this volume is to highlight some of these recent advances, particularly in the collection and interpretation of geodetic data from actively deforming volcanoes. The 18 papers that follow report on new geodetic data that offer valuable insights into eruptive activity and magma transport; they present new models and modeling strategies that have the potential to greatly increase understanding of magmatic, hydrothermal, and volcano-tectonic processes; and they describe innovative techniques for collecting geodetic measurements from remote, poorly accessible, or hazardous volcanoes. To provide a proper context for these studies, we offer a short review of the evolution of volcano geodesy, as well as a case study that highlights recent advances in the field by comparing the geodetic response to recent eruptive episodes at Mount St. Helens. Finally, we point out a few areas that continue to challenge the volcano geodesy community, some of which are addressed by the papers that follow and which undoubtedly will be the focus of future research for years to come.

Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research↗
USGS2008

An atlas of ShakeMaps for selected global earthquakes

An atlas of maps of peak ground motions and intensity 'ShakeMaps' has been developed for almost 5,000 recent and historical global earthquakes. These maps are produced using established ShakeMap methodology (Wald and others, 1999c; Wald and others, 2005) and constraints from macroseismic intensity data, instrumental ground motions, regional topographically-based site amplifications, and published earthquake-rupture models. Applying the ShakeMap methodology allows a consistent approach to combine point observations with ground-motion predictions to produce descriptions of peak ground motions and intensity for each event. We also calculate an estimated ground-motion uncertainty grid for each earthquake. The Atlas of ShakeMaps provides a consistent and quantitative description of the distribution and intensity of shaking for recent global earthquakes (1973-2007) as well as selected historic events. As such, the Atlas was developed specifically for calibrating global earthquake loss estimation methodologies to be used in the U.S. Geological Survey Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) Project. PAGER will employ these loss models to rapidly estimate the impact of global earthquakes as part of the USGS National Earthquake Information Center's earthquake-response protocol. The development of the Atlas of ShakeMaps has also led to several key improvements to the Global ShakeMap system. The key upgrades include: addition of uncertainties in the ground motion mapping, introduction of modern ground-motion prediction equations, improved estimates of global seismic-site conditions (VS30), and improved definition of stable continental region polygons. Finally, we have merged all of the ShakeMaps in the Atlas to provide a global perspective of earthquake ground shaking for the past 35 years, allowing comparison with probabilistic hazard maps. The online Atlas and supporting databases can be found at http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/shakemap/atlas.php/.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2013

Environmental consequences of the Retsof Salt Mine roof collapse

In 1994, the largest salt mine in North America, which had been in operation for more than 100 years, catastrophically flooded when the mine ceiling collapsed. In addition to causing the loss of the mine and the mineral resources it provided, this event formed sinkholes, caused widespread subsidence to land, caused structures to crack and subside, and changed stream flow and erosion patterns. Subsequent flooding of the mine drained overlying aquifers, changed the groundwater salinity distribution (rendering domestic wells unusable), and allowed locally present natural gas to enter dwellings through water wells. Investigations including exploratory drilling, hydrologic and water-quality monitoring, geologic and geophysical studies, and numerical simulation of groundwater flow, salinity, and subsidence have been effective tools in understanding the environmental consequences of the mine collapse and informing decisions about management of those consequences for the future. Salt mines are generally dry, but are susceptible to leaks and can become flooded if groundwater from overlying aquifers or surface water finds a way downward into the mined cavity through hundreds of feet of rock. With its potential to flood the entire mine cavity, groundwater is a constant source of concern for mine operators. The problem is compounded by the viscous nature of salt and the fact that salt mines commonly lie beneath water-bearing aquifers. Salt (for example halite or potash) deforms and “creeps” into the mined openings over time spans that range from years to centuries. This movement of salt can destabilize the overlying rock layers and lead to their eventual sagging and collapse, creating permeable pathways for leakage of water and depressions or openings at land surface, such as sinkholes. Salt is also highly soluble in water; therefore, whenever water begins to flow into a salt mine, the channels through which it flows increase in diameter as the surrounding salt dissolves. Some mines leak at a slow rate for decades before a section of rock gives way, allowing what initially was a trickle of water to suddenly become a cascade and finally a torrent. Other mines become flooded and are destroyed when an errant drill hole punctures the mine ceiling, allowing water from overlying sources to flow into the mine. Either scenario can cause catastrophic flooding and permanent loss of the mine. Occasionally, a mine that has remained dry for a century will undergo a roof collapse that results in flooding.

New York↗
USGS2013

Wyoming Basin Rapid Ecoregional Assessment: Work Plan

The overall goal of the Rapid Ecoregional Assessments (REAs) being conducted for the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) is to provide information that supports regional planning and analysis for the management of ecological resources. The REA provides an assessment of baseline ecological conditions, an evaluation of current risks from drivers of ecosystem change, and a predictive capacity for evaluating future risks. The REA also may be used for identifying priority areas for conservation or restoration and for assessing the cumulative effects of a variety of land uses. There are several components of the REAs. Management Questions, developed by the BLM and partners for the ecoregion, identify the information needed for addressing land-management responsibilities. Conservation Elements represent regionally significant aquatic and terrestrial species and communities that are to be conserved and (or) restored. The REA also will evaluate major drivers of ecosystem change (Change Agents) currently affecting or likely to affect the status of Conservation Elements. We selected 8 major biomes and 19 species or species assemblages to be included as Conservation Elements. We will address the four primary Change Agents—development, fire, invasive species, and climate change—required for the REA. The purpose of the work plan for the Wyoming Basin REA is to document the selection process for, and final list of, Management Questions, Conservation Elements, and Change Agents. The work plan also presents the overall assessment framework that will be used to assess the status of Conservation Elements and answer Management Questions.

Wyoming↗