SEARCH · Search USGS

Results for “Coastal Futures”

Search indexed USGS publications on groundwater, aquifers, geologic maps, mineral resources and earthquakes. Explore source records by subject and place.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 1,027 records · Page 57Linked to original sources

USGS2022

Budburst timing of valley oaks at Hastings Reservation, central coastal California

We studied the timing of budburst of valley oak ( Quercus lobata Née) at Hastings Reservation, central coastal California. Similar to other taxa, budburst was advanced by warmer temperatures. Over the 30-year study period, however, there were no significant trends in either air temperature or the timing of budburst, except during the 2014–2016 drought, during which the earliest budburst dates were advanced. Several individual tree characteristics correlated with budburst timing, including access to ground water, soil available phosphorus, and elevation, the effects of which were in turn correlated with winter microclimatic conditions of individual trees. Budburst timing was significantly related to both subsequent acorn production and radial growth; trees leafing out on or near the population mean for the year experienced greater radial growth and produced larger acorn crops than trees leafing out earlier or later than the mean. Differences in acorn production were due to both differences in phenology among trees and plasticity in the phenology of individual trees across years, while differences in radial growth were primarily due to plasticity in individual tree phenology. Valley oak phenology exhibits considerable variability; the extent to which this plasticity will help this keystone California species adapt to future climate change remains to be seen.

California↗

USGS2022

Golden eagle occupancy surveys and monitoring strategy in coastal southern California, United States

Golden eagles ( Aquila chrysaetos ) are of increasing conservation concern in western North America. Effective conservation measures for this wide-ranging, federally protected raptor species require monitoring frameworks that accommodate strong inference on the status of breeding populations across vast landscapes. We used a broad-scale sampling design to identify relationships between landscape conditions, detection rates, and site occupancy by territorial pairs of golden eagles in coastal southern California, United States. In 2016 and 2017, we surveyed 175 territory-sized sample sites (13.9-km 2 randomly selected grid cells) up to four times each year and detected a pair of eagles at least once in 22 (12.6%) sites. The probability of detecting pairs of eagles varied substantially between years and declined with increasing amounts of forest cover at survey sites, which obscured observations of eagles during ground-based surveys. After accounting for variable detection, the mean estimate of expected site occupancy by eagle pairs was 0.156 (SE = 0.081). Site-level estimates of occupancy were greatest (>0.30) at sample sites with more rugged terrain conditions, <20% human development, and lower amounts of scrubland vegetation cover. The proportion of a sample site with open grassland or forest cover was not strongly correlated with occupancy. We estimated that approximately 16% of the 5,338-km 2 sampling frame was used by resident pairs of golden eagles, corresponding to a sparsely distributed population of about 60 pairs (95% CI = 19 – 151 pairs). Our study provided baseline data for future surveys of golden eagles along with a widely applicable monitoring framework for identifying spatial conservation priorities in urbanizing landscapes.

California↗

USGS1926

Pleistocene plants from North Carolina

The field work upon which this report is based was done in 1906 and 1907 as a part of the cooperative study of the Atlantic Coastal Plain, under the direction of the late William Bullock Clark. Associated with the writer in this work were L. W. Stephenson, B. L. Miller, Jr., and J. E. Pogue. Preliminary accounts of the plants collected were published in 1907 and 1909. As has been frequently emphasized, the study of the Pleistocene floras in this country is in an exceedingly backward state as measured by the volume and precision of our knowledge of Pleistocene floras in Europe. Researches in Pleistocene geology in North America have been confined almost entirely to glaciology, and the problem of the correlation of the glacial deposits with those outside the glaciated area has not been solved, nor is there any general agreement regarding the genesis of the Pleistocene deposits south of the terminal moraines. The present account of what is known of the Pleistocene flora of North Carolina and the conclusions that may be legitimately derived from it is offered in the hope that it may stimulate an interest in a neglected field of research and form a small part of the evidence upon which to base future more comprehensive conclusions and generalizations. A word of explanation regarding the illustrations is required. Nearly all of them have been made from leaves preserved as carbonaceous films in the peaty clays. These specimens were carefully washed out, and blue prints were made directly from them. Outlines and as much of the venation as could be seen were inked on the blue prints, which were then bleached. This procedure made it possible to handle a much larger amount of material and prevented any possible damage to the exceedingly fragile specimens, which were mounted on cards or between glass. The accompanying drawings were made from tracings of the original nature prints.

North Carolina↗

USGS2014

A probabilistic method for constructing wave time-series at inshore locations using model scenarios

Continuous time-series of wave characteristics (height, period, and direction) are constructed using a base set of model scenarios and simple probabilistic methods. This approach utilizes an archive of computationally intensive, highly spatially resolved numerical wave model output to develop time-series of historical or future wave conditions without performing additional, continuous numerical simulations. The archive of model output contains wave simulations from a set of model scenarios derived from an offshore wave climatology. Time-series of wave height, period, direction, and associated uncertainties are constructed at locations included in the numerical model domain. The confidence limits are derived using statistical variability of oceanographic parameters contained in the wave model scenarios. The method was applied to a region in the northern Gulf of Mexico and assessed using wave observations at 12 m and 30 m water depths. Prediction skill for significant wave height is 0.58 and 0.67 at the 12 m and 30 m locations, respectively, with similar performance for wave period and direction. The skill of this simplified, probabilistic time-series construction method is comparable to existing large-scale, high-fidelity operational wave models but provides higher spatial resolution output at low computational expense. The constructed time-series can be developed to support a variety of applications including climate studies and other situations where a comprehensive survey of wave impacts on the coastal area is of interest.

Coastal Engineering↗

USGS2003

Changes in wetland sediment elevation following major storms: implications for estimating trends in relative sea-level rise

Hurricanes can be important agents of geomorphic change in coastal marshes and mangrove forests. Hurricanes can cause large-scale redistribution of sediments within the coastal environment resulting in sedimentation, erosion, disruption of vegetated substrates, or some combination of these processes in coastal wetlands. It has been proposed that such sediment pulsing events are important at maintaining wetland sediment elevations in sediment-poor settings with high rates of relative sea-level rise, such as the Mississippi River Delta. But do these pulsing events result in a net gain in sediment elevation even when substantial amounts of sediment are deposited? Clearly sediment erosion and scour would result in a loss of elevation. But will a substantial sediment deposit on poorly consolidated sediments always result in a net gain in elevation? If the wetland vegetation is killed by wind, tidal surge, or the introduction of saline water, will there be a collapse of sediment elevation in the absence of root production and ongoing decomposition of root matter? During the past decade several wetlands where my colleagues and I have monitored sedimentation and elevation change have been struck by one to several hurricanes. This paper describes the range of sediment elevation responses to hurricane strikes, the suggested mechanisms driving those responses, the implications for estimating long-term trends in relative sea-level rise, and future research needs for improving our understanding of the role that major storms play in wetland sediment elevation dynamics. For many wetlands the change in sediment elevation was directly proportional to the amount of sediment deposited by the storm. But surprisingly, there was a loss of elevation in some wetlands with substantial sediment deposits. In these wetlands, the impact of the storm was either direct (sedimentation and compaction) or indirect (vegetation death), and the effect on sediment elevation was either permanent or temporary. For example, 2 cm of sediment deposited by Hurricane Andrew on a healthy salt marsh in south Louisiana had a direct and positive effect on sediment elevation. But in a deteriorated salt marsh a 3 cm thick sediment deposit was associated with a permanent loss in elevation (we have monitored this site for 10 years). The apparent mechanism driving elevation loss was compaction of the weakened substrate by the weight of the sediment deposit, the storm surge waters, or both. Clearly, storm-related sediment pulses are not going to save this marsh from becoming submerged by rising sea level. A temporary loss in elevation, as much as 2 cm, was observed in a North Carolina salt marsh with a highly organic substrate after each of 3 successive hurricanes even when sediment was deposited. The loss in elevation was apparently related to degassing of the chronically flooded substrate while the rebound in elevation was apparently related to a temporary drawdown of marsh water levels. Interestingly, sediment elevation increased after Hurricane Dennis in 1999, although the increase was less than the thickness of the sediment deposit. Further research is required to determine the mechanisms driving storm-related elevation change (i.e., compaction and expansion) in this marsh. There were two marshes where the gain in sediment elevation was greater than the thickness of the sediment deposit, but the effect was short-lived. In a high salt marsh in southern California, we hypothesize that the temporary spike in elevation was related to the flushing of salts from the hypersaline soils, which enhanced root growth that led to an increase in elevation. In a marsh with a highly organic substrate in north Florida, temporary increases in elevation (as much as 2 cm) greater than the thickness of the sediment deposit were apparently related to groundwater fluxes, which may have been influenced by enhanced runoff from storm rainfall. Lastly, Hurricane Mitch

Book chapter↗

USGS2022

Great Lakes spatial priorities study

Spatial data about the bathymetry, habitat characteristics, underlying geology, and other features of the ocean and inland seas are essential for decision-making. Marine research and management organizations use these data to help ensure safe navigation, promote sustainable fisheries, extract energy, and protect marine habitats in the coastal and ocean waters of the U.S. Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) and Laurentian Great Lakes. Many of these organizations may have overlapping or shared mapping interests without knowing it. In a multi-jurisdictional planning environment, it can be challenging and cumbersome to determine where other entities have shared or overlapping mapping interests, especially across a transnational region such as the Great Lakes. State and provincial governments, federal governments, academia, tribes and First Nations, and other stakeholders from both the U.S. and Canada all have mapping interests across Great Lakes waters. Identifying and communicating target geographies for new data collection that are shared among multiple organizations can both help to avoid redundancy of new mapping efforts, and create opportunities for greater efficiency through collaboration. To address this issue, a spatial priorities study was conducted using a geospatial tool developed by the National Ocean Services National Centers for Coastal and Ocean Science (NCCOS). The tool provided an easy-to-use online interface in which programs can identify their priorities in a simple and straightforward way. This study asked representatives of Great Lakes management and science organizations to identify the areas for which they needed maps of lakebed features on a near-term, mid-term, and long-term timeframe, and why. Then, the responses were analyzed and overlaid to determine areas of shared mapping need and opportunity and to determine the types of map products needed. The analysis revealed high interest among multiple organizations in discrete geographies including the Minnesota and Wisconsin shoreline from Duluth to the eastern extent of the Bayfield Peninsula, Green Bay in Lake Michigan, and the southern coastlines of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario, the St. Marys River, and the northern Lake Superior coastal waters near Grand Portage, MN. Lower priority mapping interest were distributed widely across all lakes, but tended to be concentrated in nearshore areas (<30 m depth). The analysis also indicated that the top mapping justifications were Habitat/biota/natural area, Benthic exploration, Commercial and recreational fishing, and Scientific research. The top desired map product types were Elevation, Substrate/sub-bottom geologic characterization, and Habitat map/characterization, although participants on some lakes noted other less prevalent product types. Following from previously conducted NOAA and non-NOAA Federal spatial prioritization exercises, the results of this regional focus can help mapping organizations better understand how their priorities align with the needs of regional organizations, allow for more efficient coordination and funding, and enable partners to leverage assets and resources to fill their most pressing data and information gaps across Great Lakes waters. The U.S. Mapping Coordination Site hosts the results of this study and other spatial prioritization studies. Through this website, one can interact with the study results along with recent and planned mapping efforts. NOAA intends to update their spatial priorities on a three- to five-year basis. Future studies should strive to expand participation of federal agencies, state and local governments, federally-recognized tribes, academia, and private industry (among other stakeholders) to seek out ocean mapping partnerships in conjunction with the National Ocean Mapping, Exploration and Characterization (NOMEC) goals map once, use many times.”

Great Lakes↗

USGS2014

Tsunami vertical-evacuation planning in the U.S. Pacific Northwest as a geospatial, multi-criteria decision problem

Tsunami vertical-evacuation (TVE) refuges can be effective risk-reduction options for coastal communities with local tsunami threats but no accessible high ground for evacuations. Deciding where to locate TVE refuges is a complex risk-management question, given the potential for conflicting stakeholder priorities and multiple, suitable sites. We use the coastal community of Ocean Shores (Washington, USA) and the local tsunami threat posed by Cascadia subduction zone earthquakes as a case study to explore the use of geospatial, multi-criteria decision analysis for framing the locational problem of TVE siting. We demonstrate a mixed-methods approach that uses potential TVE sites identified at community workshops, geospatial analysis to model changes in pedestrian evacuation times for TVE options, and statistical analysis to develop metrics for comparing population tradeoffs and to examine influences in decision making. Results demonstrate that no one TVE site can save all at-risk individuals in the community and each site provides varying benefits to residents, employees, customers at local stores, tourists at public venues, children at schools, and other vulnerable populations. The benefit of some proposed sites varies depending on whether or not nearby bridges will be functioning after the preceding earthquake. Relative rankings of the TVE sites are fairly stable under various criteria-weighting scenarios but do vary considerably when comparing strategies to exclusively protect tourists or residents. The proposed geospatial framework can serve as an analytical foundation for future TVE siting discussions.

Washington↗

USGS2017

Tambora and the mackerel year: Phenology and fisheries during an extreme climate event

Global warming has increased the frequency of extreme climate events, yet responses of biological and human communities are poorly understood, particularly for aquatic ecosystems and fisheries. Retrospective analysis of known outcomes may provide insights into the nature of adaptations and trajectory of subsequent conditions. We consider the 1815 eruption of the Indonesian volcano Tambora and its impact on Gulf of Maine (GoM) coastal and riparian fisheries in 1816. Applying complex adaptive systems theory with historical methods, we analyzed fish export data and contemporary climate records to disclose human and piscine responses to Tambora’s extreme weather at different spatial and temporal scales while also considering sociopolitical influences. Results identified a tipping point in GoM fisheries induced by concatenating social and biological responses to extreme weather. Abnormal daily temperatures selectively affected targeted fish species—alewives, shad, herring, and mackerel—according to their migration and spawning phenologies and temperature tolerances. First to arrive, alewives suffered the worst. Crop failure and incipient famine intensified fishing pressure, especially in heavily settled regions where dams already compromised watersheds. Insufficient alewife runs led fishers to target mackerel, the next species appearing in abundance along the coast; thus, 1816 became the “mackerel year.” Critically, the shift from riparian to marine fisheries persisted and expanded after temperatures moderated and alewives recovered. We conclude that contingent human adaptations to extraordinary weather permanently altered this complex system. Understanding how adaptive responses to extreme events can trigger unintended consequences may advance long-term planning for resilience in an uncertain future.

Maine, Massachusetts↗

USGS2008

Environmental drivers in mangrove establishment and early development: A review

Mangroves have a global distribution within coastal tropical and subtropical climates, and have even expanded to some temperate locales. Where they do occur, mangroves provide a plethora of goods and services, ranging from coastal protection from storms and erosion to direct income for human societies. The mangrove literature has become rather voluminous, prompting many subdisciplines within a field that earlier in the 20th century received little focus. Much of this research has become diffuse by sheer numbers, requiring detailed syntheses to make research results widely available to resource managers. In this review, we take an inclusive approach in focusing on eco-physiological and growth constraints to the establishment and early development of mangrove seedlings in the intertidal zone. This is a critical life stage for mangroves, i.e., the period between dispersal and recruitment to the sapling stage. We begin with some of the research that has set the precedent for seedling-level eco-physiological research in mangroves, and then we focus on recent advances (circa. 1995 to present) in our understanding of temperature, carbon dioxide, salinity, light, nutrient, flooding, and specific biotic influences on seedling survival and growth. As such, we take a new approach in describing seedling response to global factors (e.g., temperature) along with site-specific factors (e.g., salinity). All variables will strongly influence the future of seedling dynamics in ways perhaps not yet documented in mature forests. Furthermore, understanding how different mangrove species can respond to global factors and regional influences is useful for diagnosing observed mortality within mangrove wetlands, managed or natural. This review provides an updated eco-physiological knowledge base for future research and reforestation activity, and for understanding important links among climate change, local physico-chemical condition, and establishment and early growth of mangrove seedlings.

Aquatic Botany↗

USGS1989

Sedimentary framework of the southern Maine inner continental shelf: Influence of glaciation and sea-level change

Although the tidally influenced shoreline of Maine is longer than that of virtually any other state, almost no research on its geology has been published. In order to go some way towards remedying this, 1500 km of high-resolution seismic reflection data and 800 km of sidescan sonar imagery have been collected. On the basis of these data and observations made during ten submersible dives, more than 800 bottom samples were collected and evaluated for texture and composition. The understanding of the sedimentary framework of the southern Maine shelf and the processes that maintain it are summarized, and future research directions to evaluate the strategic mineral potential are indicated. In the past 14,000 years, the Maine shelf has experienced a deglaciation and two marine transgressions separated by a regression. The deglaciation was accompanied by the first transgression and deposited till interbedded with up to 40 m of glaciomarine sediment (the Presumpscot Formation) across the shelf. The first transgression culminated about 12,500 yrs B.P., and its landward limit is marked by large glaciomarine deltas 50-100 km landward of the present-day coast. Sea level fell until about 9500 yrs B.P., when shorelines were cut at about the 65 m depth and some large "lowstand deltas" were deposited. Sea level has risen since then and in the general absence of modern river sediment input marine processes have reworked the older sediment. Five shelf environments have been defined in terms of their surficial sediment and stratigraphy. Nearshore ramps are sandy regions extending to about 30 m deep offshore of sandy beaches. These may be reworked lowstand deltas, and possess the thickest bodies of sand in the region. Nearshore basins are mud-filled troughs seaward of coastal areas lacking significant river input. Slumping glaciomarine deposits provide most of the Holocene mud that floors these basins. Rocky zones are extensive areas of exposed rock most common in the 30-50 m depth range. These are areas of high carbonate productivity and provide shell fragments to adjacent areas. The outer basins are muddy regions that begin at the 65 m shoreline and extend beyond the 100 m isobath to the deep Gulf of Maine. Finally, shelf valleys are former stream courses that connect nearshore ramps and basins to the outer basins. These bedrock-framed valleys are filled with sand and mud and are apparently still active conduits for the offshore movement of sediment. The mineralogy of the shelf sediment is complex, and it is not yet clear whether glacial homogenization has obliterated distinctions between river drainage basins and the adjacent shelf. Studies are continuing into northern Maine and analysis of the heavy mineralogy of the shelf sediment utilizing a 2 m Humphrey Spiral to process large grab samples and cores has begun. ?? 1989.

Marine Geology↗

USGS2009

Simulation of Groundwater Flow in the Coastal Plain Aquifer System of Virginia

The groundwater model documented in this report simulates the transient evolution of water levels in the aquifers and confining units of the Virginia Coastal Plain and adjacent portions of Maryland and North Carolina since 1890. Groundwater withdrawals have lowered water levels in Virginia Coastal Plain aquifers and have resulted in drawdown in the Potomac aquifer exceeding 200 feet in some areas. The discovery of the Chesapeake Bay impact crater and a revised conceptualization of the Potomac aquifer are two major changes to the hydrogeologic framework that have been incorporated into the groundwater model. The spatial scale of the model was selected on the basis of the primary function of the model of assessing the regional water-level responses of the confined aquifers beneath the Coastal Plain. The local horizontal groundwater flow through the surficial aquifer is not intended to be accurately simulated. Representation of recharge, evapotranspiration, and interaction with surface-water features, such as major rivers, lakes, the Chesapeake Bay, and the Atlantic Ocean, enable simulation of shallow flow-system details that influence locations of recharge to and discharge from the deeper confined flow system. The increased density of groundwater associated with the transition from fresh to salty groundwater near the Atlantic Ocean affects regional groundwater flow and was simulated with the Variable Density Flow Process of SEAWAT (a U.S. Geological Survey program for simulation of three-dimensional variable-density groundwater flow and transport). The groundwater density distribution was generated by a separate 108,000-year simulation of Pleistocene freshwater flushing around the Chesapeake Bay impact crater during transient sea-level changes. Specified-flux boundaries simulate increasing groundwater underflow out of the model domain into Maryland and minor underflow from the Piedmont Province into the model domain. Reported withdrawals accounted for approximately 75 percent of the total groundwater withdrawn from Coastal Plain aquifers during the year 2000. Unreported self-supplied withdrawals were simulated in the groundwater model by specifying their probable locations, magnitudes, and aquifer assignments on the basis of a separate study of domestic-well characteristics in Virginia. The groundwater flow model was calibrated to 7,183 historic water-level observations from 497 observation wells with the parameter-estimation codes UCODE-2005 and PEST. Most water-level observations were from the Potomac aquifer system, which permitted a more complex spatial distribution of simulated hydraulic conductivity within the Potomac aquifer than was possible for other aquifers. Zone, function, and pilot-point approaches were used to distribute assigned hydraulic properties within the aquifer system. The good fit (root mean square error = 3.6 feet) of simulated to observed water levels and reasonableness of the estimated parameter values indicate the model is a good representation of the physical groundwater flow system. The magnitudes and temporal and spatial distributions of residuals indicate no appreciable model bias. The model is intended to be useful for predicting changes in regional groundwater levels in the confined aquifer system in response to future pumping. Because the transient release of water stored in low-permeability confining units is simulated, drawdowns resulting from simulated pumping stresses may change substantially through time before reaching steady state. Consequently, transient simulations of water levels at different future times will be more accurate than a steady-state simulation for evaluating probable future aquifer-system responses to proposed pumping.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2014

Analysis of projected water availability with current basin management plan, Pajaro Valley, California

The projection and analysis of the Pajaro Valley Hydrologic Model (PVHM) 34 years into the future using MODFLOW with the Farm Process (MF-FMP) facilitates assessment of potential future water availability. The projection is facilitated by the integrated hydrologic model, MF-FMP that fully couples the simulation of the use and movement of water from precipitation, streamflow, runoff, groundwater flow, and consumption by natural and agricultural vegetation throughout the hydrologic system at all times. MF-FMP allows for more complete analysis of conjunctive-use water-resource systems than previously possible with MODFLOW by combining relevant aspects of the landscape with the groundwater and surface-water components. This analysis is accomplished using distributed cell-by-cell supply-constrained and demand-driven components across the landscape within “water-balance subregions” (WBS) comprised of one or more model cells that can represent a single farm, a group of farms, watersheds, or other hydrologic or geopolitical entities. Analysis of conjunctive use would be difficult without embedding the fully coupled supply-and-demand into a fully coupled simulation, and are difficult to estimate a priori. The analysis of projected supply and demand for the Pajaro Valley indicate that the current water supply facilities constructed to provide alternative local sources of supplemental water to replace coastal groundwater pumpage, but may not completely eliminate additional overdraft. The simulation of the coastal distribution system (CDS) replicates: 20 miles of conveyance pipeline, managed aquifer recharge and recovery (MARR) system that captures local runoff, and recycled-water treatment facility (RWF) from urban wastewater, along with the use of other blend water supplies, provide partial relief and substitution for coastal pumpage (aka in-lieu recharge). The effects of these Basin Management Plan (BMP) projects were analyzed subject to historical climate variations and assumptions of 2009 urban water demand and land use. Water supplied directly from precipitation, and indirectly from reuse, captured local runoff, and groundwater is necessary but inadequate to satisfy agricultural demand without coastal and regional storage depletion that facilitates seawater intrusion. These facilities reduce potential seawater intrusion by about 45% with groundwater levels in the four regions served by the CDS projected to recover to levels a few feet above sea level. The projected recoveries are not high enough to prevent additional seawater intrusion during dry-year periods or in the deeper aquifers where pumpage is greater. While these facilities could reduce coastal pumpage by about 55% of the historical 2000–2009 pumpage for these regions, and some of the water is delivered in excess of demand, other coastal regions continue to create demands on coastal pumpage that will need to be replaced to reduce seawater intrusion. In addition, inland urban and agricultural demands continue to sustain water levels below sea level causing regional landward gradients that also drive seawater intrusion. Seawater intrusion is reduced by about 45% but it supplies about 55% of the recovery of groundwater levels in the coastal regions served by the CDS. If economically feasible, water from summer agricultural runoff and tile-drain returnflows could be another potential local source of water that, if captured and reused, could offset the imbalance between supply and demand as well as reducing discharge of agricultural runoff into the National Marine Sanctuary of Monterey Bay. A BMP update (2012) identifies projects and programs that will fund a conservation program and will provide additional, alternative water sources to reduce or replace coastal and inland pumpage, and to replenish the aquifers with managed aquifer recharge in an inland portion of the Pajaro Valley.

California↗

USGS2018

Sea‐level rise, habitat loss, and potential extirpation of a salt marsh specialist bird in urbanized landscapes

Sea‐level rise (SLR) impacts on intertidal habitat depend on coastal topology, accretion, and constraints from surrounding development. Such habitat changes might affect species like Belding's savannah sparrows ( Passerculus sandwichensis beldingi ; BSSP), which live in high‐elevation salt marsh in the Southern California Bight. To predict how BSSP habitat might change under various SLR scenarios, we first constructed a suitability model by matching bird observations with elevation. We then mapped current BSSP breeding and foraging habitat at six estuarine sites by applying the elevation‐suitability model to digital elevation models. To estimate changes in digital elevation models under different SLR scenarios, we used a site‐specific, one‐dimensional elevation model (wetland accretion rate model of ecosystem resilience). We then applied our elevation‐suitability model to the projected digital elevation models. The resulting maps suggest that suitable breeding and foraging habitat could decline as increased inundation converts middle‐ and high‐elevation suitable habitat to mudflat and subtidal zones. As a result, the highest SLR scenario predicted that no suitable breeding or foraging habitat would remain at any site by 2100 and 2110. Removing development constraints to facilitate landward migration of high salt marsh, or redistributing dredge spoils to replace submerged habitat, might create future high salt marsh habitat, thereby reducing extirpation risk for BSSP in southern California.

Ecology and Evolution↗

USGS2022

Mechanisms controlling climate warming impact on the occurrence of hypoxia in Chesapeake Bay

A Climate change represents an increasing stressor on estuarine and coastal ecosystems. A series of simulations were run using the Integrated Compartment Water Quality Model to determine the magnitude of various mechanisms controlling the effect of climate warming on dissolved oxygen (DO) in the Chesapeake Bay. The results suggested that the average hypoxic volume in the summer would increase by 9% (410 Mm 3 ) from 1995 to 2025 as air temperature increases by 1.06°C and water temperature by 0.9°C. The change in DO solubility contributes 55% of the total climate warming effect, biological rates 33%, and stratification 11%. The Rappahannock Shoal, a hydraulic control point, plays a major role in determining the effect of climate warming on DO in the Bay. Due to the abrupt change in bathymetry, the convergence between seaward-moving freshwater and landward-moving saltwater causes downwelling and enhanced vertical mixing which introduces surface water of higher temperature to the deep channel and accelerates organic matter remineralization and oxygen consumption in deep waters. Surface water DO concentrations will decrease under climate warming conditions due to lower DO solubility, reducing DO flux to the deep channel and contributing to hypoxia development. These findings provide critical information for future management decision making regarding the effects of climate warming on DO in Chesapeake Bay and other estuaries.

Maryland, Virginia↗

USGS2017

Effects of isolation on ant assemblages depend on microhabitat

How isolation affects biological communities is a fundamental question in ecology and conservation biology. Local diversity (α) and regional diversity (γ) are consistently lower in insular areas. The pattern of species turnover (β diversity) and the influence of isolation on competitive interactions are less predictable. Differences in communities across microhabitats within an isolated patch could contribute to the variability in patterns related to isolation. Trees form characteristically dense and sparse patches (low vs. high isolation) in floating marshes in coastal Louisiana, and canopy and root areas around these trees could support distinct ant communities. Consequently, trees in floating marshes provide an ideal environment to study the effects of isolation on community assemblages in different microhabitats. We sampled ant communities in 120 trees during the summer of 2016. We found ant α diversity was not different between the canopy and roots, and the magnitude and directional effects of isolation on ants were inconsistent between the canopy and root areas. In the roots of sparse sites, ant diversity (α, β, and γ) was lower, species composition was changed, and the signature of interspecific competition was more prominent compared to dense sites. In the canopy, however, significant differences between dense and sparse sites were only detected in α and γ diversity, and ant species co‐occurrence was not significantly different from a random distribution. The inconsistent responses of ants in canopy and root areas to isolation may be due to the differences of species pool size, environmental harshness, and species interactions between strata. In addition, these findings indicate that communities in distinct microenvironments can respond differentially to habitat isolation. We suggest incorporating organisms from different microhabitats into future research to better understand the influence of isolation on the assembly of biological communities.

Ecosphere↗

USGS2024

Deep vs shallow: GPS tags reveal a dichotomy in movement patterns of loggerhead turtles foraging in a coastal bay

Background Individual variation in movement strategies of foraging loggerhead turtles have been documented on the scale of tens to hundreds of kilometers within single ocean basins. Use of different strategies among individuals may reflect variations in resources, predation pressure or competition. It is less common for individual turtles to use different foraging strategies on the scale of kilometers within a single coastal bay. We used GPS tags capable of back-filling fine-scale locations to document movement patterns of loggerhead turtles in a coastal bay in Northwest Florida, U.S.A. Methods Iridium-linked GPS tags were deployed on loggerhead turtles at a neritic foraging site in Northwest Florida. After filtering telemetry data, point locations were transformed to movement lines and then merged with the original point file to define travel paths and assess travel speed. Home ranges were determined using kernel density function. Diurnal behavioral shifts were examined by examining turtle movements compared to solar time. Results Of the 11 turtles tagged, three tracked turtles remained in deep (~ 6 m) water for almost the entire tracking period, while all other turtles undertook movements from deep water locations, located along edges and channels, to shallow (~ 1–2 m) shoals at regular intervals and primarily at night. Three individuals made short-term movements into the Gulf of Mexico when water temperatures dropped, and movement speeds in the Gulf were greater than those in the bay. Turtles exhibited a novel behavior we termed drifting. Conclusions This study highlighted the value provided to fine-scale movement studies for species such as sea turtles that surface infrequently by the ability of these GPS tags to store and re-upload data. Future use of these tags at other loggerhead foraging sites, and concurrent with diving and foraging data, would provide a powerful tool to better understand fine-scale movement patterns of sea turtles.

Florida↗

USGS2016

Methane turnover and environmental change from Holocene biomarker records in a thermokarst lake in Arctic Alaska

Arctic lakes and wetlands contribute a substantial amount of methane to the contemporary atmosphere, yet profound knowledge gaps remain regarding the intensity and climatic control of past methane emissions from this source. In this study, we reconstruct methane turnover and environmental conditions, including estimates of mean annual and summer temperature, from a thermokarst lake (Lake Qalluuraq) on the Arctic Coastal Plain of northern Alaska for the Holocene by using source-specific lipid biomarkers preserved in a radiocarbon-dated sediment core. Our results document a more prominent role for methane in the carbon cycle when the lake basin was an emergent fen habitat between ~12,300 and ~10,000 cal yr BP, a time period closely coinciding with the Holocene Thermal Maximum (HTM) in North Alaska. Enhanced methane turnover was stimulated by relatively warm temperatures, increased moisture, nutrient supply, and primary productivity. After ~10,000 cal yr BP, a thermokarst lake with abundant submerged mosses evolved, and through the mid-Holocene temperatures were approximately 3°C cooler. Under these conditions, organic matter decomposition was attenuated, which facilitated the accumulation of submerged mosses within a shallower Lake Qalluuraq. Reduced methane assimilation into biomass during the mid-Holocene suggests that thermokarst lakes are carbon sinks during cold periods. In the late-Holocene from ~2700 cal yr BP to the most recent time, however, temperatures and carbon deposition rose and methane oxidation intensified, indicating that more rapid organic matter decomposition and enhanced methane production could amplify climate feedback via potential methane emissions in the future.

The Holocene↗

USGS1985

Water resources of the southeast lowlands, Missouri; with a section on water quality

The Southeast Lowlands of Missouri occupies 4,000 square miles of prime agricultural land of the Coastal Plain in the extreme southeastern corner of Missouri. Even though this area receives about 4 feet of rainfall per year, there is a rapidly increasing demand for water for irrigation. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the water resources of this area with particular emphasis on the extent of irrigation and the potential of the groundwater system to support further irrigation development. The area is underlain by consolidated aquifers of Paleozoic age and unconsolidated aquifers of Mesozoic and Cenozoic age. The consolidated aquifers, although possessing the potential to yield large quantities of water, generally are not used throughout much of the area because they lie at considerable death and alternate supplies are readily available. The McNairy aquifer, which underlies about three-fourths of the area, ranges from 0 to 600 feet in thickness with the top lying from 0 to more than 2,200 feet below land surface. This system is attractive as a municipal water supply because of its large artesian head and the small iron and hardness concentrations of the water. Although this system is now used exclusively for municipal water supplies, the McNairy may become more important in the future as a heat source. The Wilcox Group (undivided), which underlies more than one-half of the area and almost always lies less than 300 feet below land surface, is as much as 1,400 feet thick. However, usually only the basal 250 to 500 feet of this group is used as an aquifer. This system, which in some areas is capable of yielding as much as 1,500 gallons per minute to properly constructed wells, is now primarily used for municipal supplies. The alluvial aquifer underlies most of the area and is locally capable of yielding more than 3,000 gallons per minute. This aquifer generally is 100 to 200 feet thick, but in several places more than 250 feet of alluvium has been reported. Irrigation wells withdraw an estimated 95,000 acre-feet per year from this aquifer, whereas municipal, industrial, and domestic wells withdraw an estimated additional 17,000 acre-feet per year. This compares to nearly 6 million acre-feet per year natural discharge and a total storage of 60 million acre feet. The surface-water system in the area consists of a few natural rivers and many manmade ditches. Although a considerable quantity of water is available from the surface-water system, this system is not extensively used because attractive alternative sources are readily available.

Missouri↗