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USGS1976

Comments on recent canvasback habitat trends and threats on Chesapeake Bay

During the last 22 years, the North American winter population of canvasbacks has fluctuated from 481,000 in 1955 to 179,000 in 1972. The Chesapeake Bay population has averaged 33 percent of the North American population and 64 percent of the Atlantic Flyway population. In Maryland, significant annual fluctuations have been recorded between the eastern and western shore of Chesapeake Bay. In 1968, 11 percent of the Bay canvasbacks were on the western shore, whereas in 1971, 87 percent of the birds wintered in this area. This increase in 1971 is believed to be in response to large populations of small Rangia cuneata clams. I n recent years, mortality of small clams and reduced spawning have resulted in a larger size class for Rangia making them less desirable as a waterfowl food. Canvasback populations in 1975 and 1976 were more dispersed in Chesapeake Bay when the predominant food of canvasbacks was Macoma balthica. In the last 5 years, the number of canvasbacks wintering in Chesapeake Bay has declined slightly, while the North American and Atlantic Flyway populations have increased. Increases have been noted in New Jersey and North Carolina. This trend may indicate that the quality of canvasback habitat in Chesapeake Bay is declining at a faster rate than other areas along the Atlantic coast.

Book chapter↗

USGS1980

Estimating the size and trend of the California condor population, 1965-1978

During 1965-1978, three principal methods were used to measure the size and trend of the California Condor (Gymnogyps californianus) population. An October survey conducted by as many as 136 observers had limited value because daily activity patterns of condors were unpredictable and because analysis of results could not be standardized. Evaluation of 4,381 condor observations by cooperators, and results of comparative surveys done in 1970-1971 and 1977-1978 show declines in numbers of condor sightings, numbers of condors per sighting, and in the numbers of sightings including more than one immature-plumaged bird. The data cannot be evaluated statistically, but they suggest a marked decline in the condor population between 1965 and 1978. Future refinements of survey techniques are dependent on having individually recognizable condors in the population.

California Fish and Game↗

USGS1994

Estimating equations estimates of trends

The North American Breeding Bird Survey monitors changes in bird populations through time using annual counts at fixed survey sites. The usual method of estimating trends has been to use the logarithm of the counts in a regression analysis. It is contended that this procedure is reasonably satisfactory for more abundant species, but produces biased estimates for less abundant species. An alternative estimation procedure based on estimating equations is presented.

Bird Populations↗

USGS2011

Analysis of trends in climate, streamflow, and stream temperature in north coastal California

As part of a broader project analyzing trends in climate, streamflow, vegetation, salmon, and ocean conditions in northern California national park units, we compiled average monthly air temperature and precipitation data from 73 climate stations, streamflow data from 21 river gaging stations, and limited stream temperature data from salmon-bearing rivers in north coastal California. Many climate stations show a statistically significant increase in both average maximum and average minimum air temperature in early fall and midwinter during the last century. Concurrently, average September precipitation has decreased. In many coastal rivers, summer low flow has decreased and summer stream temperatures have increased, which affects summer rearing habitat for salmonids. Nevertheless, because vegetative cover has also changed during this time period, we cannot ascribe streamflow changes to climate change without first assessing water budgets. Although shifts in the timing of the centroid of runoff have been documented in snowmelt-dominated watersheds in the western United States, this was not the case in lower elevation coastal rivers analyzed in this study.

California↗

USGS2008

Turning population trend monitoring into active conservation: Can we save the cascades frog (Rang cascadae) in the Lassen Region of California?

Monitoring the distribution, population size, and trends of declining species is necessary to evaluate their vulnerability to extinction. It is the responsibility of scientists to alert management professionals of the need for preemptive action if a species approaches imminent, regional extirpation. This is the case with Rana cascadae (Cascades Frog) populations near Lassen Peak From 1993 to 2007, we conducted 1,873 amphibian surveys at 856 sites within Lassen Volcanic National Park and Lassen National Forest, California, USA. These surveys encompassed all R. cascadae habitats: ponds, lakes, meadows, and streams on those lands. We found frogs at only six sites during 14 years of surveys, and obtained one report of a single frog at one additional locality. These sites represented < 1% of the historically suitable habitat within the Lassen region. The number of R. cascadae in the Lassen area has declined since 1991, and one population is now extirpated. We found no evidence of reproduction in most of the populations, and reproduction at all but one of the other sites remained lower than the annual reproductive output of one breeding pair for > 12 years. Causes for the decline remain unclear, but introduced trout, disease, and pesticides are likely factors. We recommend that (1) additional protection for R. cascadae within 50 km of Lassen Peak; (2) investigation of the genetics of R. cascadae in California; (3) research into the role of possible causative factors in these declines; and (4) implementation of a feasibility study to captive breed and reintroduce R. cascadae in the Lassen area. Copyright ?? 2008. Gary Fellers. All rights reserved.

Herpetological Conservation and Biology↗

USGS1985

QUALITY ASSURANCE PROGRAM FOR WET DEPOSITION SAMPLING AND CHEMICAL ANALYSES FOR THE NATIONAL TRENDS NETWORK.

The purpose of the National Trends Network is to delineate the major inorganic constituents in the wet deposition in the United States. The approach chosen to monitor the Nation's wet deposition is to install approximately 150 automatic sampling devices with at least one collector in each state. Samples are collected at one week intervals, removed from collectors, and transported to an analytical laboratory for chemical analysis. The quality assurance program has divided wet deposition monitoring into 5 parts: (1) Sampling site selection, (2) sampling device, (3) sample container, (4) sample handling, and (5) laboratory analysis. Each of these five components is being examined using existing designs or new designs. Each existing or proposed sampling site is visited and a criteria audit is performed.

Conference Paper↗

USGS1995

Trend analyses of sediment data for the DEC project

Daily stream discharge, suspended-sediment concentration, and suspended-sediment discharge data were collected at eight sites in six watersheds of the Demonstration Erosion Control project in the Yazoo River Basin in north-central Mississippi during the period July 1985 through September 1991. The project is part of an ongoing interagency program of planning, design, construction, monitoring, and evaluation to alleviate flooding, erosion, sedimentation, and water-quality problems for watersheds located in the bluff hills upstream of the Mississippi River alluvial plain. This paper presents preliminary results of trend analyses for stream discharge and sediment data for the eight project sites. More than 550 stream discharge measurements and 20,000 suspended-sediment samples have been collected at the eight sites since 1985.

Conference Paper↗

USGS2001

Trends in Northern Hemisphere surface cyclone frequency and intensity

One of the hypothesized effects of global warming from increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases is a change in the frequency and/or intensity of extratropical cyclones. In this study, winter frequencies and intensities of extratropical cyclones in the Northern Hemisphere for the period 1959-97 are examined to determine if identifiable trends are occurring. Results indicate a statistically significant decrease in midlatitude cyclone frequency and a significant increase in high-latitude cyclone frequency. In addition, storm intensity has increased in both the high and midlatitudes. The changes in storm frequency correlate with changes in winter Northern Hemisphere temperature and support hypotheses that global warming may result in a northward shift of storm tracks in the Northern Hemisphere.

Journal of Climate↗

USGS2004

Edwards plateau: Analysis of land cover trends

The Land Cover Trends project studies the rates, causes, and consequences of contemporary (1973-2000) change in land use and land cover in the United States on an ecoregional basis. The Edwards Plateau ecoregion is the focus of this report. Landsat imagery from five dates during a nearly 30-year period are interpreted for randomly selected sample blocks. The resulting data provide the foundation for estimating change. Along with the image analysis, site visits to 90% of the sampled areas, geographical profiles, and socioeconomic data for the ecoregion are synthesized to assess regional driving forces and consequences of change. Complete project methodology can be found in Loveland et al [1].

Conference Paper↗

USGS2011

Distribution, population status and trends of Kittlitz's murrelet Brachyramphus brevirostris in Lower Cook Inlet and Kachemak Bay, Alaska

Lower Cook Inlet (LCI) in south-central Alaska is unusual among the breeding areas of Kittlitz's Murrelet Brachyramphus brevirostris because of human impacts on the marine and terrestrial environments and because of the lack of tidewater glaciers. In LCI the Kittlitz's Murrelet co-exists with the more abundant Marbled Murrelet, which complicates abundance estimates because of the difficulty of species identification. We compared survey data for an area with overlapping coverage in LCI (Core area) in 1993 (June) and from 1996 to 1999 (July-early August). Within this LCI Core area, the surveys in 1996-1999 estimated ~1600 Kittlitz's Murrelets and ~17 000 Marbled Murrelets, including prorated unidentified murrelets. The Kittlitz's Murrelet population declined between 1993 and 1999 at 26% per annum (84% overall). Simultaneously, Marbled Murrelets declined by 12% per annum (56% overall), though the decline was not statistically significant. Declines were estimated conservatively because the 1993 survey was conducted in June, when both murrelet species are less abundant on the water. We also surveyed Kachemak Bay, a large embayment of LCI, during mid-summer (July) of 2005-2007 and estimated a population of 2047 Kittlitz's Murrelets (SD 1120, n = 3 years) residing primarily in the inner bay. Marbled Murrelets numbered 11 040 (SD 1306) and were found throughout the bay. On one transect set in inner Kachemak Bay, Kittlitz's Murrelet density in late summer (1-16 August) declined 7.5% per annum between 1988 and 2007 (n = 6 years), and Marbled Murrelet density increased 4.9% per annum. On two other transect sets in the inner bay, however, neither murrelet species showed a change in density between 1996 and 2007. Inner Kachemak Bay is a persistent hotspot for Kittlitz's Murrelet and may attract murrelets from LCI and beyond. We recommend monitoring murrelet populations in Kachemak Bay, although Kittlitz's Murrelets likely move between the main body of Cook Inlet and Kachemak Bay, and a complete LCI survey is needed to gauge regional population trends.

Marine Ornithology: Journal of Seabird Research an↗

USGS2011

Status and trend of the Kittlitz's Murrelet Brachyramphus brevirostris in Glacier Bay, Alaska

We conducted standardized surveys for marine birds in Glacier Bay in seven years between 1991 and 2008. From our most recent survey, a combination of line- and strip-transect methods completed in 2008, we estimated that 4981 (95% CI 1293–8670) Kittlitz’s Murrelets Brachyramphus brevirostris resided in Glacier Bay during the month of June, together with 12 195 (5607–18 783) Marbled Murrelets B. marmoratus . When counts were prorated to assign unidentified Brachyramphus murrelets to species, population estimates increased to 5641 Kittlitz’s Murrelets and 13 810 Marbled Murrelets. Our surveys of bird numbers in Glacier Bay between 1991 and 2008 revealed that Kittlitz’s Murrelet declined by ≥85% during this period. Trend analysis suggested a rate of decline between -10.7% and -14.4% per year. No direct human impacts (e.g., bycatch, oil pollution, vessel disturbance) in our study area could fully account for a decline of this magnitude. Widespread declines of Brachyramphus murrelets and Harbor Seals Phoca vitulina in the Gulf of Alaska during the 1980s-1990s suggest large-scale influences on these marine predators, perhaps related to climate-mediated cycles in food supply. Other natural factors that may impact Glacier Bay populations include predation by avian and terrestrial predators, widespread glacial retreat and its effect on nesting and foraging habitats, and competition for food with marine predators whose abundance in Glacier Bay has increased markedly in recent years (Humpback Whales Megaptera novaeangliae and Steller Sea Lions Eumetopias jubatus ).

Alaska↗

USGS1997

Pesticides in ground water: distribution, trends, and governing factors

A comprehensive review of published information on the distribution and behavior of pesticides and their transformation products in ground water indicates that pesticides from every chemical class have been detected in ground waters of the United States. Many of these compounds are commonly present at low concentrations in ground water beneath agricultural land. Little information is available on their occurrence beneath non-agricultural land, although the intensity of their use in such areas (on lawns, golf courses, rights of way, timberlands, etc.) is often comparable to, or greater than agricultural use. Information on pesticides in ground water is not sufficient to provide either a statistically representative view of pesticide occurrence in ground water across the United States, or an indication of long-term trends or changes in the severity or extent of this contamination over the past three decades. This is largely due to wide variations in analytical detection limits, well selection procedures, and other design features among studies conducted in different areas or at different times. Past approaches have not been well suited for distinguishing "point source" from "nonpoint source" pesticide contamination. Among the variety of natural and anthropogenic factors examined, those that appear to be most strongly associated with the intensity of pesticide contamination of ground water are the depth, construction and age of the sampled wells, the amount of recharge (by precipitation or irrigation), and the depth of tillage. Approaches commonly employed for predicting pesticide distributions in the subsurface--including computer simulations, indicator solutes (e.g., nitrate or tritium), and ground-water vulnerability assessments--generally provide unreliable predictions of pesticide occurrence in ground water. Such difficulties may arise largely from a general failure to account for the preferential transport of pesticides in the subsurface. Significant improvements in understanding and predicting the occurrence and fate of pesticides in ground water are likely to depend on: (1) greater coordination of ground-water sampling across the nation to ensure consistency of study design, and thus comparability of results; (2) more extensive analyses for pesticide transformation products during ground-water monitoring studies; (3) substantially enhanced communication among investigators conducting laboratory experiments, small-scale field studies and large-scale monitoring studies; and (4) more routine testing of predictions of pesticide behavior and ground-water vulnerability against actual field observations of pesticide occurrence in ground water

Book↗

USGS2010

Status and trends of native birds in the Keauhou and Kilauea forest, Hawai`i Island

A Safe Harbor Agreement (SHA) is a voluntary arrangement between the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service and non-Federal landowners to promote the protection, conservation, and recovery of listed species without imposing further land use restrictions on the landowners. Kamehameha Schools is considering entering into a SHA for their Keauhou and Kīlauea Forest lands on the island of Hawai′i. Bird surveys were conducted in 2008 to determine the current occurrence and density of listed species for the Keauhou and Kīlauea Forest, a prerequisite for establishing an agreement. Because of different management practices in the proposed SHA area we stratified the survey data into intact and altered forest strata. The listed passerines—′Akiapōlā′au (Hemignathus munroi), Hawai′i Creeper (Oreomystis mana), and Hawai′i ′Ākepa (Loxops coccineus)—occur in both strata but at low densities. The endangered ′Io (Hawaiian Hawk; Buteo solitarius) also occurs within both strata at low densities. This report was prepared for the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service and Kamehameha Schools to provide information they can use to establish baseline levels for the SHA. In addition, we describe the status and trends of the non-listed native birds.

Hawaii↗

USGS2012

Appendix A: other methods for estimating trends of Arctic birds

The Arctic PRISM was designed to determine shorebird population size and trend. During an extensive peer review of PRISM, some reviewers suggested that measuring demographic rates or monitoring shorebirds on migration would be more appropriate than estimating population size on the breeding grounds. However, each method has its own limitations. For demographic monitoring, an unbiased estimate based on a large sample of first-year survivorship would be extremely difficult for shorebirds in the arctic because the needed sample size would be unobtainable (in Canada at least) and the level of effort that would need to be expended (both financial and human resource-wise) would far exceed that of the current Arctic PRISM methodology. For migration monitoring, issues such as changes in use of monitored to non-monitored sites, residency times, and detection rates introduce bias that has not yet been resolved. While we believe demographic and migration monitoring are very valuable and are already components of the PRISM approach (e.g., Tier 2 sites focus on the collection of demographic data), we do not believe that either is likely to achieve the PRISM accuracy target of an 80% power to detect a 50% decline.

Book chapter↗

USGS2014

Use of multi-sensor active fire detections to map fires in the United States: the future of monitoring trends in burn severity

The effort to utilize satellite-based MODIS, AVHRR, and GOES fire detections from the Hazard Monitoring System (HMS) to identify undocumented fires in Florida and improve the Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity (MTBS) mapping process has yielded promising results. This method was augmented using regression tree models to identify burned/not-burned pixels (BnB) in every Landsat scene (1984–2012) in Worldwide Referencing System 2 Path/Rows 16/40, 17/39, and 1839. The burned area delineations were combined with the HMS detections to create burned area polygons attributed with their date of fire detection. Within our study area, we processed 88,000 HMS points (2003–2012) and 1,800 Landsat scenes to identify approximately 300,000 burned area polygons. Six percent of these burned area polygons were larger than the 500-acre MTBS minimum size threshold. From this study, we conclude that the process can significantly improve understanding of fire occurrence and improve the efficiency and timeliness of assessing its impacts upon the landscape.

Conference Paper↗

USGS1982

Results of a modeling workshop concerning economic and environmental trends and concomitant resource management issues in the Mobile Bay area

During the past decade, the southern regions of the U.S. have experienced rapid change which is expected to continue into the foreseeable future. Growth in population, industry, and resource development has been attributed to a variety of advantages such as an abundant and inexpensive labor force, a mild climate, and the availability of energy, water, land, and other natural resources. While this growth has many benefits for the region, it also creates the potential for increased air, water, and solid waste pollution, and modification of natural habitats. A workshop was convened to consider the Mobile Bay area as a site-specific case of growth and its environmental consequences in the southern region. The objectives of the modeling workshop were to: (1) identify major factors of economic development as they relate to growth in the area over the immediate and longer term; (2) identify major environmental and resource management issues associated with this expected growth; and (3) identify and characterize the complex interrelationships among economic and environmental factors. This report summarizes the activities and results of a modeling workshop concerning economic growth and concomitant resource management issues in the Mobile Bay area. The workshop was organized around construction of a simulation model representing the relationships between a series of actions and indicators identified by participants. The workshop model had five major components. An Industry Submodel generated scenarios of growth in several industrial and transportation sectors. A Human Population/Economy Submodel calculated human population and economic variables in response to employment opportunities. A Land Use/Air Quality Submodel tabulated changes in land use, shoreline use, and air quality. A Water Submodel calculated indicators of water quality and quantity for fresh surface water, ground water, and Mobile Bay based on discharge information provided by the Industry and Human Population/Economy Submodels. Finally, a Fish Submodel calculated indicators of habitat quality for finfish and shellfish, utilizing information on water quality and wetlands acreage. The workshop was successful in identifying many of the critical interrelations between components of the Mobile area system. Not all of those interactions, such as the feedback of air quality as a limitation on development, could be incorporated into the workshop model because of the model's broad spatial scale and because of uncertainties or data gaps. Thus, the value of the modeling workshop was in the areas outlines below, rather than in the predictive power of the initial model developed at the workshop. First, participants developed a holistic perspective on the interactions which will determine future economic and environmental trends within the Mobile Bay area. Potential environmental consequences and limitations to grown identified at the workshop included: shoreline and water access; water quality of Mobile Bay; finfish and shellfish habitat quality with respect to dissolved oxygen and coliforms; air quality; and acreage of critical wetland habitat. Second, the model's requirements for specific, quantitative information stimulated supporting analyses, such as economic input-output calculations, which provide additional insight into the Mobile Bay area system. Third, the perspective of the Mobile area as an interacting system was developed in an open, cooperative forum which my provide a foundation for conflict resolution based on common understanding. Finally, the identification of model limitations and uncertainties should be useful in guiding the efficient allocation of future research effort.

Alabama↗

USGS2003

Acropora corals in Florida: status, trends, conservation, and prospects for recovery

Despite representing the northern extent of Acropora spp. in the Caribbean, most of the Florida reef line from Palm Beach through the Keys was built by these species. Climatic factors appear to have bee important agents of Acropora loss within historic (century) time frames. In the recent past (1980-present), available quantitative evidence suggests dramatic declines occurred in A. cervicornis first (late 70's to 84) with collapse of A. palmata occuring later (1981-86). However, recent monitoring studies (1996-2001) show continued decline of remnant populations of A. palmata . Current trends in A. cervicornis in the Florida Keys are hard to assess given its exceedingly low abundance, except in Broward County, FL where recently discovered A. cervicornis thickets are thriving. While the State of Florida recognizes A. palmata and A. cervicornis as endangered species (Deyrup and Franz 1994), this designation carries no management implications. The current management plan of the FKNMS provides many strategies for coral conservation, among them minimizing the threat of vessel groundings and anchor damage, and prohibitions on collection, touching, and damage from fishery and recreational users. Although Acropopra spp. are not explicitly given any special consideration, they are implicitly by Santuary management. Restoration approaches undertaken in the Florida Keys include rescue of fragments damaged by groudings and experimental work to culture broadcast-spawned larvae to re-seed natural substrates. Neither of these efforts have yet realized full success.

Book↗

USGS2011

Catfish science: Status and trends in the 21st century

Catfish science, the study of the fish order Siluriformes, is a diverse and expanding field in terms of advances and breadth of topics. We compiled literature from primary fisheries journals as an index of interest and advances in catfish science to examine temporal trends in the field. The number of catfish scientific publications varied over the past century with strong peaks during 1975–1979 and 2005–2010, which may be the result of interactive scientific and societal influences. Catfish biology was the predominant publication topic until the late 1990s, when ecology, techniques, and management publications became more prevalent. Articles on catfish ecology were most numerous in both the first and second international catfish symposia, but publications on techniques and conservation were more numerous in the second catfish symposium than the first. We summarize the state of knowledge, recent advances, and areas for future attention among topics in catfish science, including sampling and aging techniques, population dynamics, ecology, fisheries management, species diversity, nonnative catfish, and human dimensions, with an emphasis on the gains in this second symposium. Areas that we expect to be pursued in the future are development of new techniques and validation of existing methods; expansion of research to less-studied catfish species; broadening temporal, spatial, and organizational scales; interdisciplinary approaches; and research on societal views and constituent demands. Meeting these challenges will require scientists to span beyond their professional comfort zones to effectively reach higher standards. We look forward to the coming decade and the many advances in the conservation, ecology, and management of catfish that will be shared.

Conference Paper↗