Search USGS⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search USGS

Results for “Risk Analysis”

Search indexed USGS publications on groundwater, aquifers, geologic maps, mineral resources and earthquakes. Explore source records by subject and place.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 1,009 records · Page 56Linked to original sources

A natural resource condition assessment for Sequoia and Kings Canyon National Parks: Appendix 14: plants of conservation concern

Sequoia and Kings Canyon National Parks are located in the California Floristic Province, which has been named one of world‘s hotspots of endemic biodiversity (Myers et al. 2000). The California Floristic Province is the largest and most important geographic floristic unit in California and extends from the Klamath Mountains of southwestern Oregon to the northwestern portion of Baja California (Hickman 1993). The Sierra Nevada, one of six regions that make up the California Floristic Province, covers nearly 20% of the land in California yet contains over 50% of its flora. Within the Sierra Nevada, the southern Sierra supports more Sierran endemic and rare plant taxa than the central and northern portions of the region (Shevock 1996). Sequoia and Kings Canyon National Parks (SEKI) encompass roughly 20% of the southern Sierra Nevada region. The parks overlap three floristic subregions (central Sierra Nevada High, southern Sierra Nevada High, and southern Sierra Nevada Foothills), and border the Great Basin Floristic Province. The parks support a rich and diverse vascular flora composed of over 1,560 taxa. Of these, 150 taxa are identified as having special status. The term special status is applied here to include taxa that are state or federally listed, rare in California, or at risk because they have a limited distribution. Only one species from these parks is listed under the state or federal Endangered Species Acts ( Carex tompkinsii , Tompkins‘ sedge, is listed as a rare species under the California Endangered Species Act), and one species is under review for federal endangered listing ( Pinus albicaulis , whitebark pine). However, an absence of threatened and endangered species recognized by Endangered Species Acts is not equivalent to an absence of species at risk. There are 83 plant taxa documented as occurring in SEKI that are considered imperiled or vulnerable in the state by the California Department of Fish and Game‘s California Natural Diversity Database (CNDDB 2010a). There are an additional 66 taxa not formally listed by CNDDB that are recognized as having special status because their distribution is restricted to the Sierra Nevada. Special status plants are distributed throughout the two parks and inhabit a wide range of environments along the length of the elevation gradient that characterizes these parks. Ideally, we would assess the condition (status and trends) of each of the taxa on the SEKI special status plant list, documenting current population sizes, demographic rates and demographic trends. We would also hope to quantify the effects of individual stressors on each species based on existing monitoring and research. However, no data are available for most of the species on the special status plant list. For those few species (12 herbaceous species and two tree species) for which we possess some change over time information, the data are not adequate to make a competent assessment. Note that we have not explored the tree demographic information in any detail, as is covered in the NRCA Intact Forest/Five Needle Pines and Sequoia chapters. In general, we are unable to present an ‗integrity‘ metric for special status species in the parks, since the data to quantify the condition of each species in such a manner is not available. In contrast, the park does possess substantial data describing biodiversity in the parks. Therefore, our analysis focuses on describing the distribution and rarity of special status plants within the parks, with a particular focus on assessing the spatial distribution of species richness. We hope that such information will prove useful to park managers in determining which areas in the parks merit the most attention (for example in developing monitoring protocols). We also assess potential vulnerability of special status species to the stressors chosen by the NRCA working group, using both park data and available literature. As a first step, we spent considerable effort updating and refining the criteria for the special status plant list, as this list defines which taxa are considered in our assessment. Observation data of these species was then compiled from all known sources in order to provide a comprehensive view of where special status plants have been documented and, ultimately, to enable the most informed determinations of areas in the parks that potentially support the highest number of rare and endemic taxa. These ‗hot spot‘ analyses are presented by geographic region, vegetation type and elevation. For these and other analyses presented in this report, we place more focus on summarizing findings for the herbaceous and shrub special status taxa than on special status trees. The trees which qualify as special status are the focus of other NRCA chapters, including Giant Sequoia and Intact Forests/Five-needle Pines. We do, however, present their mapped distributions and provide overviews of research related to the special status tree taxa in the Stressors section of this report.

California↗

Remotely sensed fine-fuel changes from wildfire and prescribed fire in a semi-arid grassland

The spread of flammable invasive grasses, woody plant encroachment, and enhanced aridity have interacted in many grasslands globally to increase wildfire activity and risk to valued assets. Annual variation in the abundance and distribution of fine-fuel present challenges to land managers implementing prescribed burns and mitigating wildfire, although methods to produce high-resolution fuel estimates are still under development. To further understand how prescribed fire and wildfire influence fine-fuels in a semi-arid grassland invaded by non-native perennial grasses, we combined high-resolution Sentinel-2A imagery with in situ vegetation data and machine learning to estimate yearly fine-fuel loads from 2015 to 2020. The resulting model of fine-fuel corresponded to field-based validation measurements taken in the first (R 2 "> 2 = 0.52, RMSE = 218 kg/ha) and last year (R 2 "> 2 = 0.63, RMSE = 196 kg/ha) of this 6-year study. Serial prediction of the fine-fuel model allowed for an assessment of the effect of prescribed fire (average reduction of −80 kg/ha 1-year post fire) and wildfire (−260 kg/ha 1-year post fire) on fuel conditions. Post-fire fine-fuel loads were significantly lower than in unburned control areas sampled just outside fire perimeters from 2015 to 2020 across all fires ( t = 1.67, p < 0.0001); however, fine-fuel recovery occurred within 3–5 years, depending upon burn and climate conditions. When coupled with detailed fuels data from field measurements, Sentinel-2A imagery provided a means for evaluating grassland fine-fuels at yearly time steps and shows high potential for extended monitoring of dryland fuels. Our approach provides land managers with a systematic analysis of the effects of fire management treatments on fine-fuel conditions and provides an accurate, updateable, and expandable solution for mapping fine-fuels over yearly time steps across drylands throughout the world

Arizona↗

Brine contamination to aquatic resources from oil and gas development in the Williston Basin, United States

The Williston Basin, which includes parts of Montana, North Dakota, and South Dakota in the United States and the provinces of Manitoba and Saskatchewan in Canada, has been a leading domestic oil and gas producing region for more than one-half a century. Currently, there are renewed efforts to develop oil and gas resources from deep geologic formations, spurred by advances in recovery technologies and economic incentives associated with the price of oil. Domestic oil and gas production has many economic benefits and provides a means for the United States to fulfill a part of domestic energy demands; however, environmental hazards can be associated with this type of energy production in the Williston Basin, particularly to aquatic resources (surface water and shallow groundwater) by extremely saline water, or brine, which is produced with oil and gas. The primary source of concern is the migration of brine from buried reserve pits that were used to store produced water during recovery operations; however, there also are considerable risks of brine release from pipeline failures, poor infrastructure construction, and flow-back water from hydraulic fracturing associated with modern oilfield operations. During 2008, a multidisciplinary (biology, geology, water) team of U.S. Geological Survey researchers was assembled to investigate potential energy production effects in the Williston Basin. Researchers from the U.S. Geological Survey participated in field tours and met with representatives from county, State, tribal, and Federal agencies to identify information needs and focus research objectives. Common questions from agency personnel, especially those from the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, were “are the brine plumes (plumes of brine-contaminated groundwater) from abandoned oil wells affecting wetlands on Waterfowl Production Areas and National Wildlife Refuges?” and “are newer wells related to Bakken and Three Forks development different than the older, abandoned wells (in terms of potential for affecting aquatic resources)?” Of special concern were the wetland habitats of the ecologically important Prairie Pothole Region, which overlays a part of the Williston Basin and is recognized for the production of a majority of North America’s migratory waterfowl. On the basis of the concerns raised by on-the-ground land managers, as well as findings from previous research, a comprehensive study was developed with the following goals: summarize existing information pertaining to oil and gas production and aquatic resources in the Williston Basin; assess brine plume migration from new and previously studied sites in the Prairie Pothole Region; perform a regional, spatial evaluation of oil and gas production activities and aquatic resources; assess the potential for brine contamination to wetlands and streams; and hold a decision analysis workshop with key stakeholders to discuss issues pertaining to oil and gas production and environmental effects and to identify information gaps and research needs. This report represents an initial, multidisciplinary evaluation of measured and potential environmental effects associated with oil and gas production in the Williston Basin and Prairie Pothole Region. Throughout this report there are reviews of current knowledge, and discussions relating to data gaps and research needs. On the basis of the information presented, future research needs include: regional geophysical and water-quality assessments to establish baselines for current conditions and estimate the extent of previous brine contamination, investigations into the direct effects of brine to biotic communities, and evaluations to identify the most effective techniques to mitigate brine contamination.

Montana, North Dakota↗

Chemical characteristics of wildfire ash across the globe and their environmental and socio-economic implications

The mobilisation of potentially harmful chemical constituents in wildfire ash can be a major consequence of wildfires, posing widespread societal risks. Knowledge of wildfire ash chemical composition is crucial to anticipate and mitigate these risks. Here we present a comprehensive dataset on the chemical characteristics of a wide range of wildfire ashes (42 types and a total of 148 samples) from wildfires across the globe and examine their potential societal and environmental implications. An extensive review of studies analysing chemical composition in ash was also performed to complement and compare our ash dataset. Most ashes in our dataset had an alkaline reaction (mean pH 8.8, ranging between 6 – 11.2). Important constituents of wildfire ash were organic carbon (mean: 204 g kg-1), calcium, aluminium, and iron (mean: 47.9, 17.9 and 17.1 g kg-1). Mean nitrogen and phosphorus ranged between 1 - 25 g kg-1, and between 0.2 to 9.9 g kg-1, respectively. The largest concentrations of metals of concern for human and ecosystem health were observed for manganese (mean: 1488 mg kg-1; three ecosystems > 1000 mg kg-1), zinc (mean: 181 mg kg-1; two ecosystems > 500 mg kg-1) and lead (mean: 66.9 mg kg-1; two ecosystems > 200 mg kg-1). Burn severity and sampling timing were key factors influencing ash chemical characteristics like pH, carbon and nitrogen concentrations. The highest readily dissolvable fractions (as a % of ash dry weight) in water were observed for sodium (18%) and magnesium (11.4%). Although concentrations of elements of concern were very close to, or exceeded international contamination standards in some ashes, the actual effect of ash will depend on factors like ash loads and the dilution into environmental matrices such as water, soil and sediment. Our approach can serve as an initial methodological standardisation of wildfire ash sampling and chemical analysis protocols.

Environment International↗

Potential spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 by wildfowl: dispersal ranges and rates determined from large-scale satellite telemetry

1. Migratory birds are major candidates for long-distance dispersal of zoonotic pathogens. In recent years, wildfowl have been suspected of contributing to the rapid geographic spread of the highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 virus. Experimental infection studies reveal that some wild ducks, geese and swans shed this virus asymptomatically and hence have the potential to spread it as they move. 2. We evaluate the dispersive potential of HPAI H5N1 viruses by wildfowl through an analysis of the movement range and movement rate of birds monitored by satellite telemetry in relation to the apparent asymptomatic infection duration (AID) measured in experimental studies. We analysed the first large-scale data set of wildfowl movements, including 228 birds from 19 species monitored by satellite telemetry in 2006&ndash;2009, over HPAI H5N1 affected regions of Asia, Europe and Africa. 3. Our results indicate that individual migratory wildfowl have the potential to disperse HPAI H5N1 over extensive distances, being able to perform movements of up to 2900 km within timeframes compatible with the duration of asymptomatic infection. 4. However, the likelihood of such virus dispersal over long distances by individual wildfowl is low: we estimate that for an individual migratory bird there are, on average, only 5&ndash;15 days per year when infection could result in the dispersal of HPAI H5N1 virus over 500 km. 5. Staging at stopover sites during migration is typically longer than the period of infection and viral shedding, preventing birds from dispersing a virus over several consecutive but interrupted long-distance movements. Intercontinental virus dispersion would therefore probably require relay transmission between a series of successively infected migratory birds. 6. Synthesis and applications . Our results provide a detailed quantitative assessment of the dispersive potential of HPAI H5N1 virus by selected migratory birds. Such dispersive potential rests on the assumption that free-living wildfowl will respond analogously to captive, experimentally-infected birds, and that asymptomatic infection will not alter their movement abilities. Our approach of combining experimental exposure data and telemetry information provides an analytical framework for quantifying the risk of spread of avian-borne diseases.

Journal of Applied Ecology↗

Hydrogeology, water quality, and ecology of Anderton Branch near the Quail Hollow Landfill, Bedford County, Tennessee, 1995-99

The Quail Hollow Landfill, located in southeastern Bedford County on the Highland Rim overlooking the Central Basin karst region of Tennessee, is constructed on the gravelly, clay-rich residuum of the Fort Payne Formation of Mississippian age. A conceptual hydrologic model of the landfill indicated that Anderton Branch was at risk of being affected by the landfill. Ground water flowing beneath the landfill mixes with percolating rainwater that has passed through the landfill and discharges to the surface from numerous weeps, seeps, and springs present in the area. Anderton Branch, adjacent to the landfill site on the north and east, receives most of the discharge from these weeps, seeps, and springs. Anderton Branch also receives water from the Powell Branch drainage basin to the west and south because of diverted flow of ground water through Harrison Spring Cave. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Bedford County Solid Waste Authority, conducted a study to evaluate the effect of the Quail Hollow Landfill on ground- and surface-water quality. During storm runoff, specific conductance was elevated, and cadmium, iron, manganese, lead, and nickel concentrations in Anderton Branch frequently exceeded maximum contaminant levels for drinking water for the State of Tennessee. High chloride inputs to Anderton Branch were detected at two locations?a barnyard straddling the stream and a tributary draining a pond that receives water directly from the landfill. The chloride inputs probably contribute to chloride load levels that are three times higher for Anderton Branch than for the control stream Anthony Branch. Although toxic volatile organic compounds were detected in water from monitoring wells at the landfill, no organic contaminants were detected in domestic water wells adjacent to the landfill or in Anderton Branch. Sons Spring, a karst spring near the landfill, has been affected by the landfill as indicated by an increase in chloride concentrations from 4 milligrams per liter in 1974 to 59 milligrams per liter in 1996. Analysis of water samples from Sons Spring detected concentrations of nickel that exceeded primary drinking-water standards and Tennessee Department of Environment and Conservation fish and aquatic life chronic standards. Trichloroethene, 1,1-dichloroethene, and 1,1-dichloroethane also were detected at Sons Spring. The presence of these chlorinated solvents imply the landfill origin of the contaminants in Sons Spring. Continuous monitoring at Sons Spring indicated a pattern of decreased specific conductance and lower contaminant concentrations after a storm. Contaminant concentrations increased with specific conductance to pre-storm levels after several days. The benthic macroinvertebrate community in Anderton Branch adjacent to the landfill was not different from the communities at control sites upstream and in Anthony Branch. Sons Spring, however, has low abundance and numbers of benthic macroinvertebrate taxa. Toxicity studies using Ceriodaphnia dubia indicated no toxicity in the base flow or storm water in Anderton Branch or in a tributary draining a pond that receives water from the landfill and Sons Spring; however, water collected from Sons Spring resulted in 100 percent mortality to all organisms within 48 hours. High concentrations of nickel were detected in crayfish tissue from control sites and Anderton Branch. Analysis of sediment samples also indicates nickel concentrations are high at control sites upstream of the landfill. Increased levels of the biomarker metallothionein detected in crayfish from Anderton Branch likely are not caused by nickel or cadmium because the levels present in the tissue are not correlated with metallothionein levels. Despite the high levels of certain metals in Anderton Branch during storm flow, the lack of toxicity and the health of the benthic community imply no detectable negative effect from the landfill to the stream. Sons Spring, howe

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Water-resources-related information for the Milwaukee Metropolitan Sewerage District planning area, Wisconsin, 1970-2002

The Milwaukee Metropolitan Sewerage District (MMSD) Corridor Study is a three-phase project designed to improve the understanding of water resources in the stream corridors of the MMSD planning area by initially compiling existing data and using the compiled information to develop 3-year baseline and long-term monitoring plans. This report is one of the products of Phase I of the Corridor Study. A literature review of surface-water-quality, surface water- quantity, and ecology studies conducted from 1970 through 2001 was completed and is summarized in this report. An inventory of Geographic Information System spatial coverages available for the MMSD planning area has been assembled. A database of water, sediment, and tissue (fish, shellfish, and others) chemistry, macroinvertebrates, fish, algae, habitat, geomorphic, and other physical and ecological data was compiled from data sets from MMSD, U.S. Geological Survey, Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources, and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. More than 2.7 million results are available in the MMSD Corridor Study database and the compilation of multiple datasets allows for retrieving data from a central database rather than from each of the source datasets. Data for 1970 through 2002 were collected for the 420-square-mile planning area by various agencies using different field data-collection and laboratory analysis methods. Chemical constituents and ecological components that are important to an urban setting and well represented in the database were selected for further investigation. Each constituent or component is described in this report with some or all of the following: a text summary, map of sampling locations, and in some cases median concentrations, statistical distributions of concentrations by subwatershed, table of summary statistics by subwatershed, and graphs of temporal and (or) seasonal trends. Physical data presented in the report include streamflow, stream stage, and precipitation data. Chemical indicators of water quality presented in the report include field measurements and miscellaneous constituents (pH, alkalinity, specific conductance, hardness, dissolved oxygen, biochemical oxygen demand, and chloride), sediment (total suspended solids and suspended sediment), nutrients (total nitrogen, nitrate, Kjeldahl nitrogen, total phosphorus, and dissolved phosphorus), trace elements (cadmium, mercury, copper, lead, arsenic, chromium, nickel, and zinc), pesticides (historically used pesticides and pesticides still in use), and polychlorinated biphenyls. Ecological indicators of water quality discussed in the report include community surveys of macroinvertebrates and fish, chlorophyll a concentrations, habitat assessments and channel-measurement data, and fecal coliform and E. coli bacterial counts. In addition to the compilation of the database, a major purpose of this investigation was to identify additional sampling that should be conducted under the baseline monitoring phase, which will be the second phase of the Corridor Study. Additional sampling may include: &bull; Some subwatersheds, such as those in the headwaters. &bull; Emerging contaminants such as pharmaceuticals and personal care products (PPCPs), human hormones, organic wastewater contaminants, and other constituents that result from human activity. &bull; E. coli, which can serve as an indicator of health risk to swimmers and other recreational water users. &bull; Pesticides in all media. &bull; PCBs. &bull; Trace elements in water, bed sediment, and tissues (fish, shellfish, and others). &bull; Samples during winter months or during early snowmelt episodes to address constituents such as chloride and some nutrients that have seasonal variability and that may be affected by factors such as road deicing during the winter. &bull; Samples for macroinvertebrate and fish-community data and habitat assessments. &bull; Physical data such as stream-channel cross-section profiles, bridge-scour assessments, flood-plain maps, structures, and shoreline conditions.

Wisconsin↗

Trace silicon determination in biological samples by inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (ICP-MS): Insight into volatility of silicon species in hydrofluoric acid digests for optimal sample preparation and introduction to ICP-MS

A method for the determination of trace levels of silicon from biological materials by inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (ICP-MS) has been developed. The volatility of water-soluble silicon species, hexafluorosilicic acid (H 2 SiF 6 ), and sodium metasilicate (Na 2 SiO 3 ) was investigated by evaporating respective solutions (50 µg/mL silicon) in nitric acid (HNO 3 ), nitric acid + hydrochloric acid (HNO 3 + HCl), and nitric acid + hydrochloric acid + hydrofluoric acid (HNO 3 + HCl + HF) at 120 °C on a hot-block to near dryness. The loss of silicon from H 2 SiF 6 solutions was substantial (>99%) regardless of the digestion medium. Losses were also substantial (>98%) for metasilicate solutions heated in HNO 3 + HCl + HF, while no significant loss occurred in HNO 3 or HNO 3 + HCl. These results show that H 2 SiF 6 species were highly volatile and potential losses could confound accuracy at trace level determinations by ICP-MS if digestates prepared in HF are heated to eliminate HF. Among the various matrices comprising major elements, sodium appeared to be effective in reducing silicon loss from H 2 SiF 6 solutions. Excess sodium chloride (NaCl) matrix provided better stability, improving silicon recoveries by up to about 80% in evaporated HF digestates of soil and mine waste samples, but losses could not be fully prevented. To safely remove excess acids and circumvent the adverse effects of excess HF (e.g., risk of high Si background signals), a two-step digestion scheme was adopted for the preparation of biological samples containing trace silicon levels. A closed-vessel digestion was performed either in 4 mL of concentrated HNO 3 and 1 mL of concentrated HCl or 4 mL of concentrated HNO 3 , 1 mL of concentrated HCl and 1 mL of concentrated HClO 4 on a hot plate at 140 °C. Digestates were then evaporated to incipient dryness at 120 °C to remove the acids. A second closed-vessel digestion was carried out to dissolve silicates in 0.5 mL of concentrated HNO 3 and 0.5 mL of concentrated HF at 130 °C. After digestion, digestates were diluted to 10 mL. The solution containing about 5% HNO 3 and 5% HF was directly analyzed by ICP-MS equipped with an HF-inert sample introduction system. The limit of detection was about 110 µg/L for 28 Si when using the Kinetic Energy Discrimination (KED) mode. The method was used to determine silicon in various plant and tissue certified reference materials. Data were acquired for 28 Si using KED and standard (STD) modes, and 74 Ge and 103 Rh as internal standard elements. There was not any significant difference between the accuracy and precision of the results obtained with 74 Ge and 103 Rh within the same measurement mode. Precision, calculated as relative standard deviation for four replicate analyses, varied from 5.3 (tomato leaves) to 21% (peach leaves) for plant and from 2.2 (oyster tissue) to 33% (bovine liver) for tissue SRM/CRMs. Poor precision was attributed to material heterogeneity and the large particle size distribution. An analysis of lung tissue samples from those with occupational exposure to silica dust revealed that tissues possessed substantial levels of water-soluble silicates, but the most silicon was present in the particulate matter fraction.

Minerals↗

Framework for implementing damping scaling factors in U.S. Geological Survey National Seismic Hazard Models

Traditionally, probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) has focused on calculating ground motion hazard curves for elastic, 5%-damped pseudo spectral accelerations, Sa(T,5%), which are used as the basis for engineering design parameters and targets for ground motion selection and modification. However, structures and geotechnical systems can exhibit a wide range of damping ratios both above and below the 5% level, depending on the construction material, structural system, nonstructural elements, or subsurface soil properties. When spectral parameters at such damping levels are required for certain applications, 5%-damped accelerations have traditionally been extracted from PSHA-based hazard curves and adjusted outside of the hazard integral using damping scaling factors (DSF) such as those from Newmark & Hall (1982). Recent advances in the development of more rigorous and comprehensive damping scaling models (e.g., Rezaeian et al., 2014; Rezaeian et al., 2021) have allowed for the modeling of means and standard deviations of DSFs as functions of earthquake source and path properties for crustal, intraslab, and subduction interface tectonic environments. These DSF models can be applied to ground motion model (GMM) estimates of Sa(T,5%) for a given earthquake rupture scenario to produce a corresponding mean and standard deviation Sa at a specified damping ratio β, Sa(T,β). In this study, the DSF models of Rezaeian et al. (2014) and Rezaeian et al. (2021) are implemented within the U.S. Geological Survey National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) PSHA framework to calculate probabilistic hazard curves for spectral accelerations at damping ratios from 0.5% to 30%. The DSF models are applied directly to the mean and standard deviation of Sa(T,5%) predictions from each GMM in the NSHM logic tree. Resulting hazard curves and uniform hazard and risk spectra for Sa(T,β) are presented for several geographic locations and compared with corresponding spectra estimated using current design practices by applying the same DSFs outside of the PSHA calculation. Key differences between the two methods for estimating Sa(T,β) are discussed, and potential strategies are presented for the implementation and usage of the hazard-consistent Sa(T,β) in building codes. Comparing the results to those from DSFs used in current design practices that are mainly based on Newmark & Hall (1982) is not explored in this study.

Conference Paper↗

Distribution, abundance, and genomic diversity of the endangered antioch dunes evening primrose (Oenothera deltoides subsp. howellii) surveyed in 2019

Sand dune ecosystems are highly dynamic landforms found along coastlines and riverine deltas where a supply of sand-sized material is available to be delivered by aquatic and wind environments. These unique ecosystems provide habitat for a variety of endemic and rare plant and animal species. Sand dunes have been affected by human development, sand mining, and shoreline stabilization from invasive weeds. This report provides a summary of a comprehensive literature review, field survey, and genomic analysis for the Antioch Dunes evening primrose ( Oenothera deltoides subsp. howellii , hereafter howellii ), an endemic species to the San Francisco Bay-Delta, California, which was listed as a federally endangered subspecies in 1978. Howellii is found on a historic dune sheet (the Antioch sand sheet) near the confluence of the Sacramento and San Joaquin Rivers. The Antioch sand sheet has been greatly altered by sand mining and land conversion into agriculture and urban development. In chapter A, we describe results of the literature review and field survey. We found howellii at eight locations with over 90 percent of the adult population and nearly 99 percent of juveniles observed on the Antioch Dunes National Wildlife Refuge. We measured a negative relationship between howellii numbers and invasive weed cover, illustrating the importance of mobilized open sand for this species. In chapter B, we describe the genomic study results. We surveyed genomic diversity by using double-digest restriction-site associated sequencing to estimate population genetic structure and levels of diversity across all surveyed occurrences. The genomic analyses included outgroup samples of the closely related Oenothera deltoides subsp. cognata and three occurrences of an unknown taxon with intermediate morphology to cognata and howellii , which also occurs on the Antioch sand sheet, east of the Antioch Dunes National Wildlife Refuge. These three morphologically distinctive groups formed genetically distinctive clusters and well-supported monophyletic clades in clustering and phylogenetic analyses, respectively. There was no indication of recent hybridization among any of the groups. Among howellii occurrences, the Antioch Dunes National Wildlife Refuge contained the greatest genetic diversity. Our approach, which combined field surveys, habitat assessments, and genetic analyses, can provide useful information for the conservation and management of rare and at-risk plant species and highlights the uniqueness of the Antioch sand sheet floral diversity through the discovery of a putative new taxon within the bird-cage evening primrose species complex.

California↗

Statistical methods for simulating structural stormwater runoff best management practices (BMPs) with the Stochastic Empirical Loading and Dilution Model (SELDM)

This report documents statistics for simulating structural stormwater runoff best management practices (BMPs) with the Stochastic Empirical Loading and Dilution Model (SELDM). The U.S. Geological Survey developed SELDM and the statistics documented in this report in cooperation with the Federal Highway Administration to indicate the risk for stormwater flows, concentrations, and loads to exceed user-selected water-quality goals and the potential effectiveness of mitigation measures to reduce such risks. In SELDM, three treatment variables—hydrograph extension, volume reduction, and water-quality treatment—are simulated by using the trapezoidal distribution and the rank correlation with the associated runoff variables. This report describes methods for calculating the trapezoidal distribution statistics and rank correlation coefficients for these treatment variables and methods for estimating the minimum irreducible concentration (MIC), which is the lowest expected effluent concentration from a BMP site or a category of BMPs. These statistics are different from the statistics commonly used to characterize or compare BMPs; they are designed to provide a stochastic transfer function to approximate the quantity, duration, and quality of BMP effluent given the associated inflow values for a population of storm events. Analyses for this study were done with data extracted from a modified copy of the December 2019 version of the International Stormwater Best Management Practices Database. Statistics for volume reduction, hydrograph extension, and water-quality treatment were developed with selected data. The medians of the best-fit statistics for selected constituents were used to construct generalized cumulative distribution functions for the three treatment variables. For volume reduction and hydrograph extension, selection of a Spearman’s rank correlation coefficient (rho) value that is the average of the median and maximum values for the BMP category may help generate realistic simulation results in SELDM. The median rho value may be selected to help generate realistic simulation results for water-quality treatment variables. Water-quality treatment statistics, including trapezoidal ratios and MIC values, were developed for 51 runoff-quality constituents commonly measured in highway and urban runoff studies. Statistics were calculated for water-quality properties, sediment and solids, nutrients, major and trace inorganic elements, organic compounds, and biologic constituents. Analysis of MIC values provides information to guide professional judgement for selecting values for simulating water quality at sites of interest. The MIC is a lower bound for BMP discharge concentrations and will therefore replace simulated BMP discharge concentrations below the selected value. A new method for estimating MIC values, the lognormal variate of inflow concentrations, was developed in this report and these statistics were calculated for individual constituents and constituent categories. Inflow quality is correlated to MIC values for some constituents, but regional soil concentrations were not strongly correlated to MIC values.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Predicting sea-level rise vulnerability of terrestrial habitat and wildlife of the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands

If current climate change trends continue, rising sea levels may inundate low-lying islands across the globe, placing island biodiversity at risk. Recent models predict a rise of approximately one meter (1 m) in global sea level by 2100, with larger increases possible in areas of the Pacific Ocean. Pacific Islands are unique ecosystems home to many endangered endemic plant and animal species. The Northwestern Hawaiian Islands (NWHI), which extend 1,930 kilometers (km) beyond the main Hawaiian Islands, are a World Heritage Site and part of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument. These NWHI support the largest tropical seabird rookery in the world, providing breeding habitat for 21 species of seabirds, 4 endemic land bird species and essential foraging, breeding, or haul-out habitat for other resident and migratory wildlife. In recent years, concern has grown about the increasing vulnerability of the NWHI and their wildlife populations to changing climatic patterns, particularly the uncertainty associated with potential impacts from global sea-level rise (SLR) and storms. In response to the need by managers to adapt future resource protection strategies to climate change variability and dynamic island ecosystems, we have synthesized and down scaled analyses for this important region. This report describes a 2-year study of a remote northwestern Pacific atoll ecosystem and identifies wildlife and habitat vulnerable to rising sea levels and changing climate conditions. A lack of high-resolution topographic data for low-lying islands of the NWHI had previously precluded an extensive quantitative model of the potential impacts of SLR on wildlife habitat. The first chapter (chapter 1) describes the vegetation and topography of 20 islands of Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument, the distribution and status of wildlife populations, and the predicted impacts for a range of SLR scenarios. Furthermore, this chapter explores the potential effects of SLR on wildlife breeding habitats for each island. The subsequent chapter (chapter 2) details a study of the Laysan Island ecosystem, describing a quantitative model that incorporates SLR, storm wave, and rising groundwater inundation. Wildlife, storm, and oceanographic data allowed for an assessment of the phenological and spatial vulnerability of Laysan Island's breeding bird species to SLR and storms. Using remote sensing and geospatial techniques, we estimated topography, classified vegetation, modeled SLR, and evaluated a range of climate change scenarios. On the basis of high-resolution airborne data collected during 2010-11 (root-mean-squared error = 0.05-0.18 m), we estimated the maximum elevation of 20 individual islands extending from Kure Atoll to French Frigate Shoals (range: 1.8-39.7 m) and computed the mean elevation (1.7 m, standard deviation 1.1 m) across all low-lying islands. We also analyzed general climate models to describe rainfall and temperature scenarios expected to influence adaptation of some plants and animals for this region. Outcomes for the NWHI predicted an increase in temperature of 1.8-2.6 degrees Celsius (&deg;C) and an annual decrease in precipitation of 24.7-76.3 millimeters (mm) across the NWHI by 2100. Our models of passive SLR (excluding wave-driven effects, erosion, and accretion) showed that approximately 4 percent of the total land area in the NWHI will be lost with scenarios of +1.0 m of SLR and 26 percent will be lost with +2.0 m of SLR. Some atolls are especially vulnerable to SLR. For example, at Pearl and Hermes Atoll our analysis indicated substantial habitat losses with 43 percent of the land area inundated at +1.0 m SLR and 92 percent inundated at +2.0 m SLR. Across the NWHI, seven islands will be completely submerged with +2.0 m SLR. The limited global ranges of some tropical nesting birds make them particularly vulnerable to climate change impacts in the NWHI. Climate change scenarios and potential SLR impacts presented here emphasize the need for early climate change adaptation and mitigation planning, especially for species with limited breeding distributions and/or ranges restricted primarily to the low-lying NWHI: Cyperus pennatiformis var. bryanii , Black-footed Albatross ( Phoebastria nigripes ), Laysan Albatross ( P. immutabilis ), Bonin Petrel ( Pterodroma hypoleuca ), Gray-backed Tern ( Onychoprion lunatus ), Laysan Teal ( Anas laysanensis ), Laysan Finch ( Telespiza cantans ), and Hawaiian monk seal ( Monachus schauinslandi ). Furthermore, SLR scenarios that include the effects of wave dynamics and groundwater rise may indicate amplified vulnerability to climate change driven habitat loss on low-lying islands. In chapter 2, we incorporated the combined effects of SLR, dynamic wave-driven inundation, and rising groundwater in a quantitative study specifically for the Laysan Island ecosystem. This is the first hydrodynamic model to simulate the combined impacts of SLR and wave-driven inundation in the NWHI. We developed a high-resolution digital elevation model (mean vertical accuracy of 0.32 m) for the island. Then using recent satellite imagery, geospatial models, and historical oceanographic, storm, and biological data we estimated potential inundation extent, habitat loss, and wildlife population impacts for a range of potential SLR scenarios (0.00, +0.50, +1.00, +1.50, and +2.00 m) that may occur over the next century. Additionally, we estimated the carrying capacity of Laysan Island for five species based on the available population monitoring data and described how potential losses in nesting habitat could influence population dynamics for Black-footed Albatross, Laysan Albatross, Red-footed Booby (Sula sula), Laysan Teal, and Laysan Finch. For some other seabird populations (Masked Booby, S. dactylatra ; Brown Booby, S. leucogaster ; Great Frigatebird, Fregata minor ; and Sooty Tern, Onychoprion fuscata ), we used recent colony distribution data, land cover maps, and nesting behavior to estimate potential losses of nesting habitat from SLR and wave-driven inundation. We observed far greater potential impacts of SLR to wildlife with the dynamic wave-driven modeling approach than with the passive modeling approach. Depending on SLR scenario and coastal orientation, during storms under a +2.00 m SLR scenario, the wave-driven inundation model predicted three times more inundation than the passive model (17.2 percent of total terrestrial area versus 4.6 percent, respectively). Large-wave events generally added 1 m of water height to passive inundation surfaces, therefore our dynamic models (during storm events) forecasted comparable inundation extents earlier than passive models. Although wave-driven water levels were highest in the northwest quadrant of Laysan Island, the greatest extent of inundation occurred in the southeast where coastal dunes less than 3 m above mean sea level provide little protection from wave-driven inundation. When wave-driven inundation was included in the SLR model for Laysan Island greater nesting habitat loss and potential impacts on wildlife population dynamics were predicted. The consequences of habitat loss due to SLR may be worse for species with colonies in the wave-exposed coastal zones (for example, Black-footed Albatross) and for populations already near the island's carrying capacity (for example, Laysan Teal). Species whose peak incubation and chick-rearing periods coincide with seasonally high wave heights also will be increasingly vulnerable, especially those species nesting on the ground in areas vulnerable to inundation, such as Gray-backed Tern and Black-footed Albatross. Other species that have space for population growth, or are not restricted to a narrow range of habitat types on Laysan (for instance, Sooty Terns), may be less sensitive to habitat loss from SLR over the next century. Our assessments of inundation risk, habitat loss, and wildlife species vulnerability synthesize current knowledge about individual islands and contribute to a broader understanding of the impacts of inundation from SLR and storm-induced waves. Yet, most NWHI and their bird populations lack monitoring data to evaluate adaptations to and impacts of climate change. Exceptions include some data sets from long-term monitoring of wildlife populations, tides, or weather at French Frigate Shoals, Laysan Island, and Midway Atoll. These data sets are potentially valuable baselines, which could be informative for adaptive learning (integrating management and science) to predict, adapt, and mitigate the effects of climate change on NWHI wildlife in the future. This study provides the first quantitative vulnerability assessment for all of the low-lying NWHI, and results identify biological communities, locales, and resident endangered species of Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument expected to be at risk from SLR. This report is also intended as a reference for managers and conservation planners, a tool to identify and potentially reduce uncertainty, and a starting place for developing climate change monitoring priorities and future scientific studies.

Hawai'i↗

Assessing the robustness of quantitative fatty acid signature analysis to assumption violations

Knowledge of animal diets can provide important insights into life history and ecology, relationships among species in a community and potential response to ecosystem change or perturbation. Quantitative fatty acid signature analysis (QFASA) is a method of estimating diets from data on the composition, or signature, of fatty acids stored in adipose tissue. Given data on signatures of potential prey, a predator diet is estimated by minimizing the distance between its signature and a mixture of prey signatures. Calibration coefficients, constants derived from feeding trials, are used to account for differential metabolism of individual fatty acids. QFASA has been widely applied since its introduction and several variants of the original estimator have appeared in the literature. However, work to compare the statistical properties of QFASA estimators has been limited. One important characteristic of an estimator is its robustness to violations of model assumptions. The primary assumptions of QFASA are that prey signature data contain representatives of all prey types consumed and the calibration coefficients are known without error. We investigated the robustness of two QFASA estimators to a range of violations of these assumptions using computer simulation and recorded the resulting bias in diet estimates. We found that the Aitchison distance measure was most robust to errors in the calibration coefficients. Conversely, the Kullback&ndash;Leibler distance measure was most robust to the consumption of prey without representation in the prey signature data. In most QFASA applications, investigators will generally have some knowledge of the prey available to predators and be able to assess the completeness of prey signature data and sample additional prey as necessary. Conversely, because calibration coefficients are derived from feeding trials with captive animals and their values may be sensitive to consumer physiology and nutritional status, their applicability to free-ranging animals is difficult to establish. We therefore recommend that investigators first make any improvements to the prey signature data that seem warranted and then base estimation on the Aitchison distance measure, as it appears to minimize risk from violations of the assumption that is most difficult to verify.

Methods in Ecology and Evolution↗

Flight characteristics forecast entry by eagles into rotor-swept zones of wind turbines

Operators of wind power facilities can mitigate wildlife mortality by slowing or stopping wind turbines (hereafter ‘curtail’) when birds are at an increased risk of collision. Some facility operators curtail when individual birds have flight characteristics (e.g. altitude, distance or relative bearing of a bird's flight path) that exceed some threshold value, but thresholds currently in use have not been empirically evaluated. Overly restrictive thresholds can cause turbine curtailment for birds that never enter rotor-swept zones, thereby resulting in excess power loss. We evaluated the probability that birds, specifically eagles, entered the rotor-swept zone (hereafter ‘entry probability’) in response to their flight characteristics. We used an automated monitoring system to classify individuals as eagles or non-eagles and record flight paths of purported eagles at a wind facility in Wyoming, USA. We used logistic regression with occupancy dynamics and a distance-dependent colonization process to model entry probability. As a result, this model allowed entry probability to decrease with horizontal distance to the nearest turbine. The probability of entry varied with distance to the nearest turbine and approached zero when that distance was more than 202 m. Entry probability peaked when eagles flew 89 m above ground, corresponding to hub heights of turbines (80 m), and decreased to near-zero at altitudes of 189 m or more. Entry probabilities were greatest when flight paths were near the rotor-swept zone and when eagles flew slowly toward the nearest turbine. Compass bearing of a flight path was not associated with entry probability. Our model accurately forecasted entry probability in Wyoming (area under the curve (AUC) = 0.96) and was transferable to another facility in California, USA (AUC = 0.97); therefore, our results may be applicable across a variety of settings. Curtailment criteria can be based on flight path characteristics to forecast entry into rotor-swept zones. The use of distance and altitude thresholds when making curtailment decisions is justified. However, this analysis suggests alteration of the time to collision threshold, with curtailment initiated at greater distances as the speed of the bird decreases. Our novel modelling method and our results can inform curtailment criteria in any situation where curtailment decisions are made in real-time.

Wyoming↗

Evaluation of mercury in rainbow trout collected from Duck Valley Indian Reservation reservoirs, southwestern Idaho and northern Nevada, 2007, 2009, and 2013

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Shoshone-Paiute Tribes of the Duck Valley Indian Reservation, analyzed mercury (Hg) concentration in rainbow trout ( Oncorhynchus mykiss ) collected from three reservoirs on the reservation (Mountain View, Lake Billy Shaw, and Sheep Creek) during sampling events in 2007, 2009, and 2013, to determine the risk of Hg exposure to Tribal members and the general public. Mercury concentration in predatory fish tends to increase with fish length, and this tendency was true for rainbow trout in the reservoirs on the reservation (r 2 = 0.44&ndash;0.70). Mean (average) and median Hg concentrations in fish tissue were determined for each reservoir for each sample year. All Hg concentrations were less than the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency&rsquo;s water-quality criterion of 0.30 milligram per kilogram (mg/kg wet weight [ww]) and the Idaho Department of Environmental Quality&rsquo;s reasonable potential to exceed threshold of 0.24 mg/kg. Idaho Department of Health and Welfare toxicologists determined that the Hg concentrations in rainbow trout in this study would not warrant a fish-consumption advisory for this species. Throughout this report, statistical findings with a p -value of less than 0.05 are referred to as &ldquo;significant.&rdquo; Mean Hg concentrations in fish-tissue samples collected from Mountain View Reservoir were higher in 2007 (0.12 mg/kg ww) than in 2009 and 2013 (0.07 and 0.06 mg/kg ww, respectively), indicating a significant mean decrease. Mean Hg concentrations in fish-tissue samples collected from Lake Billy Shaw showed no significant differences among sample years (2007, 0.12 mg/kg ww; 2009, 0.07 mg/kg ww; 2013, 0.09 mg/kg ww). Mean Hg concentrations in fish-tissue samples collected from Sheep Creek Reservoir significantly increased in 2013 (0.10 mg/kg ww) from concentrations in 2007 and 2009 (0.06 and 0.05 mg/kg ww, respectively). These temporal and spatial variations are not unexpected, as each body of water may differ in the factors and conditions affecting the rate of methylation and demethylation. Coupled with the dynamic put-and-take fishery, the outcomes reflect the system complexities among reservoirs despite their fairly close proximity to one another. The influence of these other factors is evident when the analysis of atmospheric Hg deposition at Mercury Deposition Network site NV02 in northern Nevada showed no significant linear trend in wet Hg deposition rates for 2003&ndash;2013 (average 3.02 micrograms per square meter).

Idaho, Nevada↗

Atlantic Salmon (Salmo salar) climate scenario planning pilot report

Scenario planning is a structured process that embraces uncertainty and explores plausible alternative future conditions under different assumptions to help manage risk and prioritize actions ( Schwartz 1996, Peterson et al . 2003). It has been used by a variety of organizations to explore and help prepare for the future, lends itself well to exploring the uncertainty surrounding changing environmental conditions, and is widely applicable to natural resource management issues. The conservation and management of protected resources for example, can be particularly challenging when the rate and magnitude of climate-related changes, and the response of species to those changes, are uncertain (NMFS 2016). The structured process of scenario planning can help resource managers navigate through potentially paralyzing uncertainties, manage risk, and evaluate/prioritize management actions associated with adapting to, and managing for, climate change (Moore et al . 2013). Atlantic salmon ( Salmo salar ) is a species highly vulnerable to climate change in the Northeast Atlantic (Hare et al . 2016a). Based on this and the above reasons, a scenario planning initiative was piloted by NOAA Fisheries to explore what the agency can do to improve U.S.Atlantic salmon population resilience to changing climate conditions in riverine, estuarine(transition), and marine environments across its current range (U.S. headwaters to Greenland). Project objectives were: 1) to better understand the challenges of managing Atlantic salmon in a changing climate; 2) to identify and discuss potential management actions and research activities that can be undertaken to increase our understanding of the drivers of Atlantic salmon productivity and resilience; 3) to increase collaborations and coordination related to the speciesrecovery; and 4) to explore how scenario planning can be used to support decisions. Outcomes from this initiative included, but were not limited to, the identification of high priority research and management actions to further collaborations and efforts to recover this species. The identified high priority actions were those that could be undertaken in the near-term(1-5 years) using current resources and in consideration of potential future conditions. Examples of identified actions by habitat (not in order of priority) included: 1) synthesize and refine range-wide life stage specific quantitative environmental thresholds for temperature, flow, etc.; 2) assess watershed habitat productivity; 3) assess forage fish and survival connection and options for marine migration monitoring; and 4) reduce dam-associated indirect estuarine mortality rate. In addition, a number of high priority climate-related actions were included in the revised Atlantic Salmon Recovery Plan (USFWS and NMFS 2019, Appendix 16) and at least two newly NOAA Fisheries funded projects are now underway (1. conduct range-wide habitat analysis and synthesize life stage specific quantitative thresholds and 2. identify locations of cold water refugia under a changing climate). This is the first use of the scenario planning process (NPS 2013) by NOAA Fisheries. This report documents an important example of applying scenario planning to marine species/environments and may serve as a useful reference for other case studies.

Atlantic Ocean↗

Least Bell's Vireos and Southwestern Willow Flycatchers at the San Luis Rey Flood Risk Management Project Area in San Diego County, California—Breeding activities and habitat use—2022 annual report

Executive Summary We completed four protocol surveys for Least Bell’s Vireos ( Vireo bellii pusillus ; vireo) during the breeding season, supplemented by weekly territory monitoring visits. We identified a total of 133 territorial male vireos; 114 were confirmed as paired, and 3 were confirmed as single males. For the remaining 16 territories, we were unable to confirm breeding status. Two transient vireos were detected in 2022. The vireo population in the Project Area increased by 9 percent from 2021 to 2022. The vireo population at Marine Corps Base Camp Pendleton also increased (4 percent), whereas the population at Marine Corps Air Station remained relatively stable (decreased from 10 pairs to 9) and the Otay River population decreased by 10 percent (2 territories). We used an index of treatment (Treatment Index) to evaluate the effect of on-going vegetation clearing on the Project Area vireo population. The Treatment Index measures the cumulative effect of vegetation treatment within a territory (since 2005) by using the percentage area treated weighted by the number of years since treatment. We determined that the Treatment Index for unoccupied habitat was more than four times that of occupied habitat, indicating that vireos selected habitat that was less treated in which to settle. We monitored vireo nests at three general site types: (1) within the flood channel where exotic and native vegetation removal has occurred regularly (Channel), (2) three sites near the flood channel where limited exotic and native vegetation removal has occurred (Off-channel), and (3) three sites that have been actively restored by planting native vegetation (Restoration). Nesting activity was monitored in 80 territories, 3 of which were occupied by single males and 1 by a male whose breeding status could not be confirmed. Overall, 38 percent of completed nests were successful and nest success did not differ among the three sites. In 2022, there were no differences with regard to clutch size, hatching, or fledging success among Channel, Off-channel and Restoration sites. Overall breeding success and productivity were slightly higher in 2022 than in 2021, with 72 percent of pairs fledgling at least one young and pairs fledging an average of 2.2±1.7 young. To investigate if the cumulative years of treatment had an effect on vireo reproductive effort, we looked at the effects of the Treatment Index on reproductive parameters. Results from generalized linear models indicated that treatment did not have an effect on vireo nesting effort or the number of vireo fledglings per pair produced in 2022. Similarly, we did not detect an effect of Treatment Index on daily survival rate (DSR) of nests. Analysis of vegetation data collected at vireo nests from 2006 to 2022 did not reveal an effect of vegetation cover at the nest on DSR. We did find, however, that Channel nests were placed higher in the host plant than Off-channel nests. In the Channel and Off-channel sites, successful nests were placed closer to the edge of the host plants than unsuccessful nests. Additionally, successful Off-channel nests were placed lower in the vegetation, in shorter host plants, and closer to the edge of the vegetation clump than unsuccessful nests. Red/arroyo willow ( Salix laevigata or Salix lasiolepis ) were the species most commonly selected for nesting by vireos in all three site types. Black willow ( Salix gooddingii ) and mule fat ( Baccharis salicifolia ) also were commonly used. Vireos used a wider variety of species for nesting in Channel and Off-channel sites (eight and six species, respectively) compared to Restoration sites (two species), although there was limited nesting in Restoration sites in 2022. There were 43 vireos banded before the 2022 breeding season that were resighted and identified at the Project Area in 2022, all of which were originally banded in the Project Area. Adult birds of known age ranged from 1 to 7 years old. A total of 146 vireos were newly banded in 2022. There were 8 adult vireos banded with a unique color combination, and 138 nestlings were banded with a single dark blue numbered federal band on the left leg. Between 2006 and 2022, survivorship of males (66±11 percent) was consistently higher than that of females (59±12 percent). First-year birds from 2006 to 2022 had an average annual survivorship of 15±6 percent. First-year dispersal in 2022 averaged 6.7±7.4 kilometers (km), with the longest dispersal (15.3 km) by a male that was recaptured at Fallbrook Creek, Fallbrook Naval Weapons Station (FNWS). From 2007 to 2011, most returning first-year vireos returned to the Project Area, whereas from 2014 to 2016, the majority of returning birds dispersed to areas outside of the Project Area. From 2018 to 2021, the trend shifted, and more first-year vireos returned to the Project area. In 2022, only one first-year vireo returned to the project area and two dispersed to sites outside the Project Area (upstream to the middle San Luis Rey River and to Fallbrook Creek, FNWS). However, the total number of identified first-year vireos was low and the trend in 2022 will likely shift as additional returning first-year vireos are identified in subsequent years. Most of the returning adult male vireos showed strong between-year site fidelity to their previous territories. Seventy-three percent of males (27/37) occupied a territory in 2022 that they had defended in 2021 (within 100 meters [m]). There were no females (0/4) detected in 2022 that returned to a territory they occupied in 2021; however, 50 percent of females (2/4) detected in 2022 returned to areas adjacent to their previous territories (within 300 m). The average between-year movement for returning adult vireos was 0.3±0.7 km. The amount of treatment at adults’ 2021 territories did not affect the distance adults moved to their 2022 territories. We completed four protocol surveys for the endangered Southwestern Willow Flycatcher ( Empidonax traillii extimus ; flycatcher) at the Project Area between May 16 and July 25, 2022. Four transient Willow Flycatchers were detected in the Project Area in 2022. Two transients were detected in Reach 1, one in Reach 3a, and one in Pilgrim Pond. There were not any resident flycatchers documented in the Project Area in 2022. A total of 46 vegetation transects (528 points) were sampled at the Project Area in 2022. Seventy-one percent (378/528) of points were located in the Channel, and 22 percent (115/528) were in Upper Pond. The remaining 7 percent (35/528) of points were at the Whelan Restoration site. Foliage cover below 2 m was higher at the Channel points compared to Upper Pond and Whelan Restoration, which can be attributed to the dense herbaceous vegetation that grows after mowing. Above 2 m, foliage cover was similar at the Channel and Whelan Restoration sites and was higher than at Upper Pond. Average canopy height was higher in the Channel (5.6±3.4 m) compared to Upper Pond (4.7±2.9 m) and Whelan Restoration (4.6±1.9 m). From 2006 to 2022, total foliage cover declined above 2 m in the Channel, in contrast to Upper Pond and Whelan Restoration, where little directional change in vegetation cover has occurred and where vegetation cover has largely recovered to 2006 levels. Within the Channel, the steepest declines occurred between 2009 and 2013 and between 2014 and 2016. Since 2016, we observed an increase in foliage cover, largely herbaceous, between 0 and 2 m within the Channel. The percent cover remained below levels detected before 2009 for other height classes. We sampled vegetation at 44 vireo nests and 44 random plots (“territory” plots) within territories in the Channel and Upper Pond after the 2022 breeding season. Vireos in the Channel established territories in areas with significantly more cover from 3 to 6 m but less cover below 2 m relative to the available habitat. Within territories, Channel vireos selected nest sites with significantly more foliage cover from 2 to 3 m. Vireos at Upper Pond established territories in areas with significantly more foliage cover from 5 to 6 m and below 1 m relative to available habitat. However, within territories, Upper Pond vireos selected nest sites with significantly less foliage cover from 5 to 6 m and below 1 m. Data either are not available or have limited availability owing to restrictions of the funding entity (U.S. Army Corps of Engineers). Please contact Christopher Chabot, Planning Division, Los Angeles District, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, for more information.

Califoria↗

Metagenomic analysis of planktonic microbial consortia from a non-tidal urban-impacted segment of James River

Knowledge of the diversity and ecological function of the microbial consortia of James River in Virginia, USA, is essential to developing a more complete understanding of the ecology of this model river system. Metagenomic analysis of James River's planktonic microbial community was performed for the first time using an unamplified genomic library and a 16S rDNA amplicon library prepared and sequenced by Ion PGM and MiSeq, respectively. From the 0.46-Gb WGS library (GenBank:SRR1146621; MG-RAST:4532156.3), 4 × 10 6 reads revealed >3 × 10 6 genes, 240 families of prokaryotes, and 155 families of eukaryotes. From the 0.68-Gb 16S library (GenBank:SRR2124995; MG-RAST:4631271.3; EMB:2184), 4 × 10 6 reads revealed 259 families of eubacteria. Results of the WGS and 16S analyses were highly consistent and indicated that more than half of the bacterial sequences were Proteobacteria , predominantly Comamonadaceae . The most numerous genera in this group were Acidovorax (including iron oxidizers, nitrotolulene degraders, and plant pathogens), which accounted for 10 % of assigned bacterial reads. Polaromonas were another 6 % of all bacterial reads, with many assignments to groups capable of degrading polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons. Albidiferax (iron reducers) and Variovorax (biodegraders of a variety of natural biogenic compounds as well as anthropogenic contaminants such as polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons and endocrine disruptors) each accounted for an additional 3 % of bacterial reads. Comparison of these data to other publically-available aquatic metagenomes revealed that this stretch of James River is highly similar to the upper Mississippi River, and that these river systems are more similar to aquaculture and sludge ecosystems than they are to lakes or to a pristine section of the upper Amazon River. Taken together, these analyses exposed previously unknown aspects of microbial biodiversity, documented the ecological responses of microbes to urban effects, and revealed the noteworthy presence of 22 human-pathogenic bacterial genera (e.g., Enterobacteriaceae , pathogenic Pseudomonadaceae , and ‘ Vibrionales' ) and 6 pathogenic eukaryotic genera (e.g., Trypanosomatidae and Vahlkampfiidae). This information about pathogen diversity may be used to promote human epidemiological studies, enhance existing water quality monitoring efforts, and increase awareness of the possible health risks associated with recreational use of James River.

Virginia↗