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Preliminary assessment of channel stability and bed-material transport in the Coquille River basin, southwestern Oregon

This report summarizes a preliminary study of bed-material transport, vertical and lateral channel changes, and existing datasets for the Coquille River basin, which encompasses 2,745 km 2 (square kilometers) of the southwestern Oregon coast. This study, conducted to inform permitting decisions regarding instream gravel mining, revealed that: The 115.4-km-long study area on the South Fork and mainstem Coquille River can be divided into four reaches on the basis of topography and hydrology. In the fluvial (nontidal, or dominated by riverine processes) reaches on the South Fork Coquille River, the channel consists of bedrock and alluvium in the Powers Reach and mostly alluvium in the Broadbent Reach. In both fluvial reaches, the channel alternates between confined and unconfined segments and contains gravel bars. In the tidally affected Myrtle Point and Bandon Reaches, the channel consists of alluvial deposits and contains sparse gravel and sand bars as well as expansive mud flats and tidal marshes near the Coquille River mouth. The 15.4- and 14.6-km-long study areas on the Middle and North Forks of the Coquille River, respectively, were treated as distinct reaches. The channel beds consist of mixed bedrock and alluvium in the Bridge Reach on the Middle Fork Coquille River and alluvium in the Gravelford Reach on the North Fork Coquille River. Both of these reaches contain fewer bars than the Powers and Broadbent Reaches on the South Fork Coquille River and are predominately fluvial. Channel condition, bed-material transport, and the distribution and area of bars have likely been influenced by logging and splash damming, dredging and wood removal for navigation, historical and ongoing instream gravel mining, gold mining, fires, and mass movements. These anthropogenic and natural disturbances likely have varying effects on channel condition and sediment flux throughout the study area and over time. Available data include at least eight sets of aerial and orthophotographs that were taken of the study area from 1939 to 2011 that are available for assessing long-term changes in channel condition, bar area, and vegetation establishment patterns. Additionally, a high-resolution Light Detection And Ranging (LiDAR) survey conducted in 2008 for nearly the entire study area would be useful in future quantitative analyses of channel morphology and bed-material transport. Previous studies found (1) substantial bank erosion in the Broadbent Reach, resulting in banks with near vertical profiles and heights exceeding 7.6 m, (2) erosion of over 40,000 square meters of riparian land from 1939 to 1992, (3) incision along the South Fork Coquille River, and (4) potential for lateral channel migration at several locations along the mainstem and South Fork Coquille River. A review of deposited and mined bed-material estimates derived largely from repeat surveys at instream mining sites on the South Fork Coquille River indicates that bed material transported by the river tends to rebuild mined bar surfaces in most years. Reported annual deposition volumes for 1996–2009 indicate average transport of over 34,700 cubic meters per year (m 3 /yr) of bed material into the South Fork Coquille River study area. The spatial variation in the number and area of gravel bars is controlled by factors such as valley confinement, channel slope, basin geology, and tidal extent. The Powers and Broadbent Reaches of the South Fork Coquille River have the greatest abundance of gravel bars, likely owing to a substantial area of the South Fork Coquille River basin draining the gravel-producing Klamath Mountains geologic province. From 1939 to 2009, the fluvial reaches all had a net loss in bar area, ranging from 24 percent in the Powers Reach to 56 percent in the Bridge Reach. In the Powers and Broadbent Reaches, the declines in active bar area were associated primarily with vegetation establishment on bar surfaces and lateral bar erosion. The reductions in active bar area were attributed to vegetation establishment in the Bridge and Gravelford Reaches as well as some lateral bar erosion in the Bridge Reach. In contrast, the tidal Myrtle Point and Bandon Reaches had a net increase in bar area (28 and 29 percent, respectively) from 1939 to 2009. In the Myrtle Point Reach, these increases in bar area were primarily attributed to lateral channel migration that led to the deposition of bed material at newly formed bars. In the Bandon Reach, bar area increased primarily in the lower 5.4 km of the reach owing possibly to factors such as tide differences between the photographs and sediment deposition. Analyses of multiple channel cross sections along the South Fork Coquille River as well as historical stage-discharge data collected by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) at Powers, Oregon, indicate that the bed of the South Fork Coquille River has locally lowered, as much as 1.9 m from 1994 to 2008 for one site in the Broadbent Reach. Stage-discharge data indicate persistent incision at the Powers site since 1939 (with a net incision of about 0.3 m) that has been interrupted by episodic aggradation apparently corresponding with large floods. For the Bridge and Gravelford Reaches on the Middle and North Forks of the Coquille River, channel cross sections indicate a mix of aggradation and incision as well as bank erosion and deposition from 1992 to 2010 and 2000 to 2009, respectively. Cross sections in the tidal reaches indicate local incision of 0.4 m in at one site in the Myrtle Point Reach from 2004 to 2008 and 0.5 m at one site in in the Bandon Reach from 2000 to 2010. On the South Fork Coquille River, the median diameter of surface particles varied from 78.0 mm (millimeters) at China Flat Bar slightly upstream of the study area to 48.8 mm at Seals Bar in the Broadbent Reach. The armoring ratio (or ratio of the median grain sizes of the surface and subsurface layers) for Seals Bar was 3.5, indicating that the river’s transport capacity likely exceeds sediment supply at this site. Most fluvial reaches in the Coquille River study area are likely supply-limited, meaning that the river’s transport capacity exceeds the supply of bed-material, as indicated by the intermittent bedrock outcrops in the Powers and Bridge Reaches and the paucity of bars in the Bridge and Gravelford Reaches. The Broadbent Reach of the South Fork Coquille River may be presently and probably was historically transport-limited, meaning that bed-material transport is primarily a function of local transport capacity. However, the locally coarse bed texture, high armoring ratio measured at Seals Bar, and recent channel incision indicate that sediment supply has likely diminished relative to transport capacity in recent decades. Because of exceedingly low gradients, the tidal Myrtle Point and Bandon Reaches are transport limited. Bed material in these reaches is primarily sand and finer grain-size material, much of which is probably transported as suspended load from upstream reaches. The tidal reaches will be most susceptible to watershed conditions affecting the supply and transport of fine sediment. Compared to the nearby Chetco and Rogue Rivers and Hunter Creek on the southwestern Oregon coast, the Coquille River likely has lower overall transport of gravel bed material. While the conclusion of lower bed-material transport in the Coquille River is tentative in the absence of actual transport measurements or transport capacity calculations, empirical evidence including the much lower area and frequency of bars for most of the Coquille River study area and the head of tide reaching to RKM (river kilometer) 63.2 on the South Fork Coquille River supports this conclusion. More detailed investigations of bed-material transport rates and channel morphology would support assessments of lateral and vertical channel condition and longitudinal trends in bed material. Such assessments would be most practical for the Powers and Broadbent Reaches and relevant to several ongoing management and ecological issues pertaining to sand and gravel transport. The tidal Bandon and Myrtle Point Reaches may also be logical subjects for in-depth analyses of fine sediment deposition and transport (and associated channel and riparian conditions and processes) rather than coarse bed material.

Oregon↗

Evaluating management alternatives for Wyoming elk feedgrounds in consideration of chronic wasting disease

Executive Summary The authors used decision and modeling analyses to evaluate management alternatives for a decision on whether to permit Cervus canadensis (elk) feeding on two sites on Bridger-Teton National Forest, Dell Creek and Forest Park. Supplemental feeding of elk could increase the transmission of chronic wasting disease (CWD) locally and disease spread regionally, potentially impacting elk populations over time with wider implications for Odocoileus hemionus (mule deer) and Odocoileus virginianus (white-tailed deer) populations and hunting, tourism, and regional revenue. Supplemental feeding is thought to improve overwinter elk survival and reduce the commingling of elk with cattle during months when brucellosis transmission risk is highest. We worked with the U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service to identify their fundamental objectives and associated performance metrics related to this feedground decision. We then developed disease and habitat selection models to quantify the effect of four management alternatives on select performance metrics. The four alternatives were to continue to permit feeding, phaseout permits to feed in three years, permit feeding on an emergency basis, or stop permitting feeding. In this report, we present methods and summarized results on disease and habitat selection models and summaries of other performance metrics analyzed by BIO-WEST, Inc. and Cirrus Ecological Solutions as part of an Environmental Impact Statement. Data from Wyoming Game and Fish Department (WGFD) supported the assumption that supplemental elk feeding allows for larger elk populations in a region. We documented that herd units (HU) without feedgrounds had 23 percent lower densities of elk per area of winter range when compared against HUs with feedgrounds, after accounting for differences in sightability of elk during counts on and off feedgrounds. Thus, throughout our analyses, we assumed feedground closures would reduce elk carrying capacity resulting in an average decline of previously fed elk population segments by 23 percent (5th and 95th percentiles = [11 percent, 35 percent]) by year 20. Most of that decline occurred within the first few years after a feedground ceases to operate. We used a panel of CWD experts to help estimate CWD trans-mission in fed and unfed elk population segments. In aggregate, the expert panel estimated that median values of direct and indirect transmission of CWD are expected to be 1.9 and 4 times higher, respectively, in fed elk populations compared to unfed elk. We used these disease transmission estimates in combination with local elk demographic rates and carrying capacity estimates to project disease and population dynamics. In year 20, we predicted CWD prevalence would increase to 42 percent (5th and 95th percentiles = [29 percent, 55 percent]), and 13 percent (5th and 95th percentiles = [4 percent, 26 percent]) on average for fed and unfed elk population segments, respectively, given a starting prevalence of 1.6 percent. The prevalence estimates for the unfed elk population segments are in the range of previous observations of CWD in elk in the western United States. The average CWD prevalence from 2016 to 2018 in the unfed elk population of Wind Cave National Park in South Dakota was 18 percent overall but up to 30 percent in some regions (Sargeant and others, 2021). Meanwhile, CWD prevalence in the Iron Mountain and Laramie Peak elk herds in Wyoming from 2016 to 2018 was 14 percent and 7 percent, respectively, despite being present since at least 2002 (Wyoming Game and Fish Department, 2020b). From 2016 to 2020, elk that were fed at Dell Creek and Forest Park constituted on average 12–20 percent of the total elk on their respective HUs. As a result, the differences between management alternatives are modest when considering the closure of only one feedground on a HU. The no feeding alternative for Forest Park resulted in a CWD prevalence of 17 percent (SD = 7 percent) in the Afton HU compared to 20 percent (SD = 7 percent) with continued feeding by year 20. In the Upper Green River HU, no feeding on Dell Creek resulted in a CWD prevalence of 27 percent (SD = 6 percent) compared to 30 percent (SD = 5 percent) with continued feeding. In terms of disease-associated mortality, we predicted the closure of Forest Park and Dell Creek feedgrounds would reduce the total number of CWD mortalities by 9 percent in the Upper Green River HU and 26 percent in the Afton HU during the 20-year timespan. Our spatial analyses predicted that management alternative effects vary by HU as a function of private property and other wildlife winter ranges proximity relative to feedground location. The predicted number of elk abortions on private land, as a proxy for brucellosis risk to cattle, may increase by 8–21 percent in the absence of feeding at Dell Creek and Forest Park. Eight feedgrounds are located on Bridger-Teton National Forest, all of which have permits that have expired or will expire prior to 2028. In addition, WGFD could change their management of feedgrounds given new information; therefore, we also assessed the cumulative effects of continued feeding, phaseout, and no feeding management alternatives across five HUs south of Jackson, Wyoming (Afton HU, Fall Creek HU, Piney HU, Pinedale HU, and Upper Green River HU). These five HUs ranged from about 41 to 85 percent of the elk herd using feedgrounds, which corresponded to a CWD prevalence at year 20 of 23–34 percent if all feedgrounds in those five HUs remained open relative to 12 to 14 percent if all feedgrounds were closed. We predicted feedground closures may result in immediate reductions in population size relative to alternatives that continue feeding (for example, continued feeding and emergency feeding alternatives); however, over longer periods of time, CWD-associated mortality leads to larger population reductions. The no feeding alternative resulted in higher elk population sizes compared to the continued feeding alternative after about 10 years of implementation. Delayed action under a phaseout alternative resulted in increasing the CWD prevalence to 20 percent relative to 12 to 14 percent, on average, without feeding on HUs with a large population of fed elk such as the Upper Green River HU. Summarizing our cumulative results across all five of the analyzed HUs, we predicted continued feeding will lead to fewer elk by year 20 (mean = 8,300, standard deviation [SD] = 740) compared to no feeding at U.S. Department of Agri-culture Forest Service sites (10,700, SD = 890). The closure of all feedgrounds was projected to result in the largest elk populations at year 20 (12,500, SD = 980). No feeding at all sites also resulted in the largest cumulative harvest of 57,700 (SD = 2,600) compared to 51,100 (SD = 3,800) for continued feeding at all current feedground sites on the five HUs. Continued feeding also resulted in the lowest brucellosis costs to producers ($194,600, SD = $11,500) compared to no feeding on all feedgrounds ($243,000, SD = $13,700). Assuming moderate reductions in hunter interest because of increasing CWD prevalence in elk, we predicted that no feeding resulted in regional revenues generated by hunting activities of $190 million (SD = $10 million) compared to $173 million (SD = $10 million) for continued feeding over the 20-year timeframe. Recent CWD detections in mule deer and elk in Grand Teton National Park has elevated the importance of the cur-rent decision on whether, and how, to permit elk feeding on Dell Creek and Forest Park and the management of the other feedgrounds. Aggressive male harvest has slowed, but not stopped, the increasing prevalence of CWD in mule deer (Conner and others, 2021). It is unclear whether harvest management can be an effective tool to slow the spread of CWD in elk. There are also no effective treatments or vaccines for CWD, and it is unlikely that any will be developed that can be easily deployed in the near future. Thus, reducing artificial aggregations is one of the few management approaches suggested by the Western Association of Fish and Wildlife Agencies (Almberg and others, 2017). Future surveillance and monitoring can be designed to resolve uncertainties that can improve future decision-making. If feedgrounds close, research could quantify elk population reductions in the absence of feeding, the redistribution of fed elk to other places, or the consequences of elk movement on private property. If feedgrounds remain open, research could assess how rapidly CWD spreads in artificial aggregations of elk; however, surveillance programs would need to be designed with sufficient power to detect initial changes of CWD prevalence. Delaying action on feedground management was projected to be costly. Results of the phaseout alternative relative to the no feeding alternative suggested a 3-year delay was enough for substantial long-term changes in CWD prevalence. The long-term persistence of infectious CWD prions in the environment suggests that feedground management decisions may have long-lasting consequences. Our results indicated tradeoffs in the ability of a management agency to achieve all their objectives, and all management alternatives resulted in significant reductions in elk population size. This report contains the foundational elements for formal decision analysis methods, which can be implemented to help decision makers transparently evaluate the consequences of decision alternatives and identify the set of actions that best achieve agency and stakeholder priorities.

Wyoming↗