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At least 1,009 records · Page 56Linked to original sources

USGS2010

Resilience of Alaska’s boreal forest to climatic change

This paper assesses the resilience of Alaska’s boreal forest system to rapid climatic change. Recent warming is associated with reduced growth of dominant tree species, plant disease and insect outbreaks, warming and thawing of permafrost, drying of lakes, increased wildfire extent, increased postfire recruitment of deciduous trees, and reduced safety of hunters traveling on river ice. These changes have modified key structural features, feedbacks, and interactions in the boreal forest, including reduced effects of upland permafrost on regional hydrology, expansion of boreal forest into tundra, and amplification of climate warming because of reduced albedo (shorter winter season) and carbon release from wildfires. Other temperature-sensitive processes for which no trends have been detected include composition of plant and microbial communities, long-term landscape-scale change in carbon stocks, stream discharge, mammalian population dynamics, and river access and subsistence opportunities for rural indigenous communities. Projections of continued warming suggest that Alaska’s boreal forest will undergo significant functional and structural changes within the next few decades that are unprecedented in the last 6000 years. The impact of these social–ecological changes will depend in part on the extent of landscape reorganization between uplands and lowlands and on policies regulating subsistence opportunities for rural communities.

Alaska↗

USGS2017

Frequent outburst floods from South Tahoma Glacier, Mount Rainier, USA: Relation to debris flows, meteorological origin, and implications for subglacial hydrology

Destructive debris flows occur frequently at glacierized Mount Rainier volcano, Washington, U.S.A. Twenty-three such flows have occurred in the Tahoma Creek valley since 1967. Hydrologic and geomorphic evidence indicate that all or nearly all of these flows began as outburst floods from South Tahoma Glacier. Flood waters are stored subglacially. The volume of stored water discharged during a typical outburst flood would form a layer several centimeters thick over the bed of the entire glacier, although it is more likely that large linked cavities account for most of the storage. Statistical analysis shows that outburst floods usually occur during periods of atypically hot or rainy weather in summer or early autumn, and that the probability of an outburst increases with temperature (a proxy measure of ablation rate) or rainfall rate. We suggest than outburst floods are triggered by rapid water input to the glacier bed. causing water-pressure transients that destabilize the linked-cavity) system, The correlation between outburst Hoods and meteorological factors casts doubt on an earlier hypothesis that melting around geothermal vents triggers outburst floods from South Tahoma Glacier.

Washington↗

USGS2004

Combined interpretation of radar, hydraulic, and tracer data from a fractured-rock aquifer near Mirror Lake, New Hampshire, USA

An integrated interpretation of field experimental cross-hole radar, tracer, and hydraulic data demonstrates the value of combining time-lapse geophysical monitoring with conventional hydrologic measurements for improved characterization of a fractured-rock aquifer. Time-lapse difference-attenuation radar tomography was conducted during saline tracer experiments at the US Geological Survey Fractured Rock Hydrology Research Site near Mirror Lake, Grafton County, New Hampshire, USA. The presence of electrically conductive saline tracer effectively illuminates permeable fractures or pathways for geophysical imaging. The geophysical results guide the construction of three-dimensional numerical models of ground-water flow and solute transport. In an effort to explore alternative explanations for the tracer and tomographic data, a suite of conceptual models involving heterogeneous hydraulic conductivity fields and rate-limited mass transfer are considered. Calibration data include tracer concentrations, the arrival time of peak concentration at the outlet, and steady-state hydraulic head. Results from the coupled inversion procedure suggest that much of the tracer mass migrated outside the three tomographic image planes, and that solute is likely transported by two pathways through the system. This work provides basic and site-specific insights into the control of permeability heterogeneity on ground-water flow and solute transport in fractured rock.

New Hampshire↗

USGS2016

Characterization of mean transit time at large springs in the Upper Colorado River Basin, USA: A tool for assessing groundwater discharge vulnerability

Environmental tracers (noble gases, tritium, industrial gases, stable isotopes, and radio-carbon) and hydrogeology were interpreted to determine groundwater transit-time distribution and calculate mean transit time (MTT) with lumped parameter modeling at 19 large springs distributed throughout the Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB), USA. The predictive value of the MTT to evaluate the pattern and timing of groundwater response to hydraulic stress (i.e., vulnerability) is examined by a statistical analysis of MTT, historical spring discharge records, and the Palmer Hydrological Drought Index. MTTs of the springs range from 10 to 15,000 years and 90 % of the cumulative discharge-weighted travel-time distribution falls within the range of 2−10,000 years. Historical variability in discharge was assessed as the ratio of 10–90 % flow-exceedance ( R 10/90% ) and ranged from 2.8 to 1.1 for select springs with available discharge data. The lag-time (i.e., delay in discharge response to drought conditions) was determined by cross-correlation analysis and ranged from 0.5 to 6 years for the same select springs. Springs with shorter MTTs (<80 years) statistically correlate with larger discharge variations and faster responses to drought, indicating MTT can be used for estimating the relative magnitude and timing of groundwater response. Results indicate that groundwater discharge to streams in the UCRB will likely respond on the order of years to climate variation and increasing groundwater withdrawals.

Upper Colorado River Basin↗

USGS2001

Factors controlling the configuration of the fresh-saline water interface in the Dead Sea coastal aquifers: Synthesis of TDEM surveys and numerical groundwater modeling

TDEM (time domain electromagnetic) traverses in the Dead Sea (DS) coastal aquifer help to delineate the configuration of the interrelated fresh-water and brine bodies and the interface in between. A good linear correlation exists between the logarithm of TDEM resistivity and the chloride concentration of groundwater, mostly in the higher salinity range, close to that of the DS brine. In this range, salinity is the most important factor controlling resistivity. The configuration of the fresh-saline water interface is dictated by the hydraulic gradient, which is controlled by a number of hydrological factors. Three types of irregularities in the configuration of fresh-water and saline-water bodies were observed in the study area: 1. Fresh-water aquifers underlying more saline ones ("Reversal") in a multi-aquifer system. 2. "Reversal" and irregular residual saline-water bodies related to historical, frequently fluctuating DS base level and respective interfaces, which have not undergone complete flushing. A rough estimate of flushing rates may be obtained based on knowledge of the above fluctuations. The occurrence of salt beds is also a factor affecting the interface configuration. 3. The interface steepens towards and adjacent to the DS Rift fault zone. Simulation analysis with a numerical, variable-density flow model, using the US Geological Survey's SUTRA code, indicates that interface steep- ening may result from a steep water-level gradient across the zone, possibly due to a low hydraulic conductivity in the immediate vicinity of the fault.

Hydrogeology Journal↗

USGS2019

Assessing seasonal changes in microgravity at Yellowstone caldera

Microgravity time series at active volcanoes can provide an indication of mass change related to subsurface magmatic processes, but uncertainty is often introduced by hydrologic variations and other noise sources that cannot easily be isolated. We empirically assessed seasonality and noise by conducting four surveys over the course of May-October 2017 at Yellowstone caldera, Wyoming. Yellowstone experiences frequent changes in the rates and styles of seismicity and surface deformation, but the mechanisms of these changes are poorly understood because the characteristics of the driving fluids are not clear. Past gravity data from the caldera have yielded ambiguous results, possibly due to hydrologic noise. Given the strong visually observable changes in surface water and snow conditions over the course of our surveys, we expected to see significant variations in gravity. The net change in gravity, however, was less than 20 µGal at most sites, and there was no strong correlation with river and lake levels or snow conditions. Seasonal changes in gravity are therefore small compared to those that would be expected from magmatic activity, although they may be on the same order as those associated with Yellowstone’s hydrothermal system. We did find that noise levels in gravity data were highly dependent on site characteristics, with bedrock sites away from trees yielding the lowest levels of noise, and thin concrete pads in forested areas the highest. These results can be used to plan future surveys at Yellowstone and to reinterpret past data, and they provide guidance in terms of best practices for repeat gravity work on volcanoes worldwide.

Wyoming↗

USGS2014

Ice sheet load cycling and fluid underpressures in the Eastern Michigan Basin, Ontario, Canada

Strong fluid underpressures have been detected in Paleozoic strata in the eastern Michigan Basin, with hydraulic heads reaching ~400 m below land surface (~4 MPa underpressure) and ~200 m below sea level in strata where unusually low permeabilities (~10 −20 –10 −23  m 2 ) were measured in situ. Multiple glaciations, including three with as much as 3 km of ice cover at the site in the last 120 ka, suggest a causal link with the underpressures. We examined this possibility using a one-dimensional groundwater flow model incorporating mechanical loading from both ice weight and lithospheric flexure. Because hydrologic and mechanical changes during glaciation are not well characterized and subsurface properties are imperfectly known, the model was used inversely to estimate flexural loads and loosely constrained permeabilities by matching observed pressures. Acceptable matches were obtained for a surprisingly wide range of scenarios with permeabilities close to measured values and plausible flexural loads. Matches were not obtained when too many parameters were preselected, or when permeabilities were constrained to be significantly larger than measured values. In successful model runs groundwater expulsion under glacial-mechanical loads caused the underpressuring, and flexural loads were important if aquifer and sub-glacial pressures were significantly elevated during glaciation. Simulated fluid pressures in the low-permeability strata fluctuated by 30–40 MPa during glacial cycles but resulted in advective transport of only tens of meters or less. Although other mechanisms cannot be ruled out, we conclude that glacial-mechanical forcing of a water-saturated system can explain the observed underpressures.

Ontario↗

USGS2016

Climate change and dissolved organic carbon export to the Gulf of Maine

Ongoing climate change is affecting the concentration, export (flux), and timing of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) exported to the Gulf of Maine (GoM) through changes in hydrologic regime. DOC export was calculated for water years 1950 through 2013 for 20 rivers and for water years 1930 through 2013 for 14 rivers draining to the GoM. DOC export was also estimated for the 21st century based on climate and hydrologic modeling in a previously published study. DOC export was calculated by using the regression model LOADEST to fit seasonally adjusted concentration discharge (C-Q) relations. Our results are an analysis of the sensitivity of DOC export to changes in hydrologic conditions over time since land cover and vegetation were held constant over time. Despite large interannual variability, all rivers had increasing DOC export during winter and these trends were significant ( p < 0.05) in 10 out of 20 rivers for 1950 to 2013 and in 13 out of 14 rivers for 1930 to 2013. All rivers also had increasing annual export of DOC although fewer trends were statistically significant than for winter export. Projections for DOC export during the 21st century were variable depending on the climate model and greenhouse gas emission scenario that affected future river discharge through effects on precipitation and evapotranspiration. The most consistent result was a significant increase in DOC export in winter in all model-by-emission scenarios. DOC export was projected to decrease during the summer in all model-by-emission scenarios, with statistically significant decreases in half of the scenarios.

Maine↗

USGS2026

Long-term monotonic trends in water budget components in the contiguous United States: Insights from two hydrologic models

Characterizing changes to water availability for domestic, industrial, agricultural, and other uses is essential to support water management. To better quantify these changes, the U.S. Geological Survey and National Science Foundation National Center for Atmospheric Research produced two hydrologic models simulating water budget components from 1980 to 2021 over the contiguous United States (CONUS). Both hydrologic models were driven by a common atmospheric forcing dataset and aggregated to common spatial and temporal scales, which enables a novel evaluation of congruency between the models. We present annual and seasonal trends in six water budget components (precipitation, evapotranspiration, streamflow, groundwater recharge, soil saturation, and snow water equivalent) based on the Mann–Kendall test for monotonic trend and Theil-Sen slope estimate for the water year 1983–2021 period for ~86,000 catchments in CONUS. Additional components and metrics from our analysis pipeline are available in an associated published dataset, which contains more than 46 million trend results. The water budget trends showed broad agreement with prior observational and modeling studies that indicate increasing trends in the northeast and decreasing trends in southwestern CONUS. We found the seasonal variability in water budget trends was greatest in the southern, central, and northwest CONUS. These findings support integrated trend assessments when coupled with trends in water quality and use.

Contiguous United States↗

USGS2022

Hydrologic modeling of a perennial firn aquifer in southeast Greenland

A conceptual model, based on field observations and assumed physics of a perennial firn aquifer near Helheim Glacier (southeast Greenland), is evaluated via steady-state 2-D simulation of liquid water flow and energy transport with phase change. The simulation approach allows natural representation of flow and energy advection and conduction that occur in vertical meltwater recharge through the unsaturated zone and in lateral flow within the saturated aquifer. Agreement between measured and simulated aquifer geometry, temperature, and recharge and discharge rates confirms that the conceptual field-data-based description of the aquifer is consistent with the primary physical processes of groundwater flow, energy transport and phase change. Factors that are found to control simulated aquifer configuration include surface temperature, meltwater recharge rate, residual total-water saturation and capillary fringe thickness. Simulation analyses indicate that the size of perennial firn aquifers depends primarily on recharge rates from surface snowmelt. Results also imply that the recent aquifer expansion, likely due to a warming climate, may eventually produce lakes on the ice-sheet surface that would affect the surface energy balance.

Journal of Glaciology↗

USGS1979

Uranium transport in the Walker River Basin, California and Nevada

During the summer of 1976 waters from tributaries, rivers, springs and wells were sampled in the Walker River Basin. Snow and sediments from selected sites were also sampled. All samples were analyzed for uranium and other elements. The resulting data provide an understanding of the transport of uranium within a closed hydrologic basin as well as providing a basis for the design of geochemical reconnaissance studies for the Basin and Range Province of the Western United States. Spring and tributary data are useful in locating areas containing anomalous concentrations of uranium. However, agricultural practices obscure the presence of known uranium deposits and render impossible the detection of other known deposits. Uranium is extremely mobile in stream waters and does not appear to sorb or precipitate. Uranium has a long residence time (2500 years) in the open waters of Walker Lake; however, once it crosses the sediment-water interface, it is reduced to the U(IV) state and is lost from solution. Over the past two million years the amount of uranium transported to the terminal point of the Walker River system may have been on the order of 4 × 10 8 kg . This suggests that closed basin termini are sites for significant uranium accumulations and are, therefore, potential sites of uranium ore deposits.

Journal of Geochemical Exploration↗

USGS2018

Regeneration of Salicaceae riparian forests in the Northern Hemisphere: A new framework and management tool

Human activities on floodplains have severely disrupted the regeneration of foundation riparian shrub and tree species of the Salicaceae family ( Populus and Salix spp.) throughout the Northern Hemisphere. Restoration ecologists initially tackled this problem from a terrestrial perspective that emphasized planting. More recently, floodplain restoration activities have embraced an aquatic perspective, inspired by the expanding practice of managing river flows to improve river health (environmental flows) . However, riparian Salicaceae species occupy floodplain and riparian areas, which lie at the interface of both terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems along watercourses . Thus, their regeneration depends on a complex interaction of hydrologic and geomorphic processes that have shaped key life-cycle requirements for seedling establishment . Ultimately, restoration needs to integrate these concepts to succeed. However, while regeneration of Salicaceae is now reasonably well-understood, the literature reporting restoration actions on Salicaceae regeneration is sparse, and a specific theoretical framework is still missing. Here, we have reviewed 105 peer-reviewed published experiences in restoration of Salicaceae forests, including 91 projects in 10 world regions, to construct a decision tree to inform restoration planning through explicit links between the well-studied biophysical requirements of Salicaceae regeneration and 17 specific restoration actions, the most popular being planting (in 55% of the projects), land contouring (30%), removal of competing vegetation (30%), site selection (26%), and irrigation (24%). We also identified research gaps related to Salicaceae forest restoration and discuss alternative, innovative and feasible approaches that incorporate the human component.

Journal of Environmental Management↗

USGS2010

Trends in pesticide concentrations in streams of the western United States, 1993-2005

Trends in pesticide concentrations for 15 streams in California, Oregon, Washington, and Idaho were determined for the organophosphate insecticides chlorpyrifos and diazinon and the herbicides atrazine, s‐ethyl diproplythiocarbamate (EPTC), metolachlor, simazine, and trifluralin. A parametric regression model was used to account for flow, seasonality, and antecedent hydrologic conditions and thereby estimate trends in pesticide concentrations in streams arising from changes in use amount and application method in their associated catchments. Decreasing trends most often were observed for diazinon, and reflect the shift to alternative pesticides by farmers, commercial applicators, and homeowners because of use restrictions and product cancelation. Consistent trends were observed for several herbicides, including upward trends in simazine at urban‐influenced sites from 2000 to 2005, and downward trends in atrazine and EPTC at agricultural sites from the mid‐1990s to 2005. The model provided additional information about pesticide occurrence and transport in the modeled streams. Two examples are presented and briefly discussed: (1) timing of peak concentrations for individual compounds varied greatly across this geographic gradient because of different application periods and the effects of local rain patterns, irrigation, and soil drainage and (2) reconstructions of continuous diazinon concentrations at sites in California are used to evaluate compliance with total maximum daily load targets.

Journal of the American Water Resources Associatio↗

USGS2013

Historical groundwater trends in northern New England and relations with streamflow and climatic variables

Water-level trends spanning 20, 30, 40, and 50 years were tested using month-end groundwater levels in 26, 12, 10, and 3 wells in northern New England (Maine, New Hampshire, and Vermont), respectively. Groundwater levels for 77 wells were used in interannual correlations with meteorological and hydrologic variables related to groundwater. Trends in the contemporary groundwater record (20 and 30 years) indicate increases (rises) or no substantial change in groundwater levels in all months for most wells throughout northern New England. The highest percentage of increasing 20-year trends was in February through March, May through August, and October through November. Forty-year trend results were mixed, whereas 50-year trends indicated increasing groundwater levels. Whereas most monthly groundwater levels correlate strongly with the previous month's level, monthly levels also correlate strongly with monthly streamflows in the same month; correlations of levels with monthly precipitation are less frequent and weaker than those with streamflow. Groundwater levels in May through August correlate strongly with annual (water year) streamflow. Correlations of groundwater levels with streamflow data and the relative richness of 50- to 100-year historical streamflow data suggest useful proxies for quantifying historical groundwater levels in light of the relatively short and fragmented groundwater data records presently available.

Maine;New Hampshire;Vermont↗

USGS2017

Effects of impervious area and BMP implementation and design on storm runoff and water quality in eight small watersheds

The effects of increases in effective impervious area (EIA) and the implementation of water quality protection designed detention pond best management practices (BMPs) on storm runoff and stormwater quality were assessed in Gwinnett County, Georgia, for the period 2001-2008. Trends among eight small watersheds were compared, using a time trend study design. Significant trends were detected in three storm hydrologic metrics and in five water quality constituents that were adjusted for variability in storm characteristics and climate. Trends in EIA ranged from 0.10 to 1.35, and changes in EIA treated by BMPs ranged from 0.19 to 1.32; both expressed in units of percentage of drainage area per year. Trend relations indicated that for every 1% increase in watershed EIA, about 2.6, 1.1, and 1.5% increases in EIA treated by BMPs would be required to counteract the effects of EIA added to the watersheds on peak streamflow, stormwater yield, and storm streamflow runoff, respectively. Relations between trends in EIA, BMP implementation, and water quality were counterintuitive. This may be the result of (1) changes in constituent inputs in the watersheds, especially downstream of areas treated by BMPs; (2) BMPs may have increased the duration of stormflow that results in downstream channel erosion; and/or (3) spurious relationships between increases in EIA, BMP implementation, and constituent inputs with development rates.

Journal of the American Water Resources Associatio↗

USGS2022

Water storage decisions and consumptive use may constrain ecosystem management under severe sustained drought

Drought has impacted the Colorado River basin for the past 20 years and is predicted to continue. In response, decisions about how much water should be stored in large reservoirs and how much water can be consumptively used will be necessary. These decisions have the potential to limit riverine ecosystem management options through the effect water-supply decisions have on reservoir elevations. We used projected hydrology and river temperatures to compare the outcome of combinations of water storage scenarios and consumptive use limits on metrics associated with ecosystem management of the Colorado River in Grand Canyon. Ecosystem management metrics included the ability to implement designer flows, temperature suitability for fishes, and fragmentation. We compared current water management operations to prioritizing storage in either Lake Mead or Lake Powell combined with three levels of consumptive use. Projected reservoir levels limited environmental flow delivery and increased fragmentation regardless of where water was stored if consumptive use was not limited. Warmer river temperatures associated with low reservoir levels are likely, creating suitable conditions for non-native species of concern, such as smallmouth bass. Water storage decisions provided variability and management flexibility, but water storage was less important when less water was available, highlighting the importance of keeping water in the system to provide flexibility for achieving ecosystem goals.

Arizona, Utah↗

USGS2026

Ensemble methods for history matching and uncertainty quantification with a watershed model

History matching of large hydrologic models is challenging due to data sparsity and non-unique process combinations (and associated parameters) that can produce similar model predictions. We develop an ensemble-based history matching (and uncertainty quantification) approach using an iterative ensemble smoother (iES) method for three cutouts of the National Hydrologic Model (NHM) and qualitatively compare the results and performance to the stepwise history matching approach. In the latter approach, subsets of parameters and observations were sequentially calibrated to a diverse range of observations to mitigate non-uniqueness and local minima. In iES, localization simulates the same causal connections between parameters and observations without the need (and computational cost) of sequential history matching steps. iES uses a weighted sum-of-squared-errors objective function which allows differential weighting of multiple data sources. Formal adoption of range observation also pushes results to within ranges of observation values rather than discrete values. Overall, the ensemble approach performs similarly to the stepwise approach. Both approaches performed poorly for the cutout representing a snowmelt-dominated watershed, indicating a structural issue in the process representation of the model. The main advantage of iES is quantification of uncertainty in both the history matching and the predictions of interest.

Journal of the American Water Resources Associatio↗

USGS2007

Multivariate classification of small order watersheds in the Quabbin Reservoir Basin, Massachusetts

ABSTRACT: A multivariate approach was used to analyze hydrologic, geologic, geographic, and water-chemistry data from small order watersheds in the Quabbin Reservoir Basin in central Massachusetts. Eighty three small order watersheds were delineated and landscape attributes defining hydrologic, geologic, and geographic features of the watersheds were compiled from geographic information system data layers. Principal components analysis was used to evaluate 11 chemical constituents collected bi-weekly for 1 year at 15 surface-water stations in order to subdivide the basin into subbasins comprised of watersheds with similar water quality characteristics. Three principal components accounted for about 90 percent of the variance in water chemistry data. The principal components were defined as a biogeochemical variable related to wet. land density, an acid-neutralization variable, and a road-salt variable related to density of primary roads. Three subbasins were identified. Analysis of variance and multiple comparisons of means were used to identify significant differences in stream water chemistry and landscape attributes among subbasins. All stream water constituents were significantly different among subbasins. Multiple regression techniques were used to relate stream water chemistry to landscape attributes. Important differences in landscape attributes were related to wetlands, slope, and soil type.

Journal of the American Water Resources Associatio↗