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U.S. Geological Survey science for the Wyoming Landscape Conservation Initiative—2014 annual report

This is the seventh report produced by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) for the Wyoming Landscape Conservation Initiative (WLCI) to detail annual activities conducted by the USGS for addressing specific management needs identified by WLCI partners. In FY2014, there were 26 projects, including a new one that was completed, two others that were also completed, and several that entered new phases or directions. The 26 projects fall into several categories: (1) synthesizing and analyzing existing data to identify current conditions on the landscape and using the data to develop models for projecting past and future landscape conditions; (2) monitoring indicators of ecosystem conditions and the effectiveness of on-the-ground habitat projects; (3) conducting research to elucidate the mechanisms underlying wildlife and habitat responses to changing land uses; (4) managing and making accessible the large number of databases, maps, and other products being developed; and (5) coordinating efforts among WLCI partners, helping them use USGS-developed decision-support tools, and integrating WLCI outcomes with future habitat enhancement and research projects. The new (completed) project was the development and publication of a public outreach piece for visitors of Fossil Butte National Monument. The final product was a USGS Fact Sheet that capitalized on previously collected elk-monitoring data to interpret the ecology of the Monument’s elk population and the importance of the Monument’s habitats to this highly visible wildlife species. One of the completed projects entailed developing and evaluating a synthetic approach to high-resolution satellite imagery for use in effectiveness monitoring, which culminated in a journal article. The other completed project was a coalescing of two similar tasks under data and information management that pertain to Web application development and the development of outreach and graphic products into a single integrated project that focuses on developing and maintaining/upgrading Web applications and other tools for visualizing, mapping, and using geospatial data. Major accomplishments for FY2014 included several publications, including Part B of an energy resources map that (with Part A) depicts coal, wind, oil, gas, oil shale, uranium, and solar energy production in the WLCI region. Two published works associated with sage-grouse included a Wildlife Monograph on prioritizing species’ habitats across large landscapes, multiple seasons, and novel areas (using sage-grouse in Wyoming as an example), and a USGS Data Series report that includes both the data used in the habitat-prioritization models and the habitat prioritization models developed for sage-grouse. Our Science Team also published a framework for conducting large, collaborative projects that rely on geospatial data, and a paper that describes the efficacy of fusing satellite data collected at various resolutions for measuring and monitoring vegetation changes. These products are all invaluable tools for maximizing the efficiency and effectiveness of managing species of concern, conducting future landscape-scale assessments, and monitoring status and trends of landscape conditions. Other highlights of FY2014 included a renewed effort to gather and analyze wildlife and habitat status and trend data for the WLCI Interagency Monitoring Database (IAMD) to assess long-term trends and cumulative effects associated with land-use and climate changes. Water-monitoring efforts included drilling four new groundwater-monitoring wells in the Green and New Fork River basins near the proposed Normally Pressured Lance Formation energy development, and continued data collection at established water-monitoring sites. Three additional wells were sampled as part of the Wyoming Groundwater Monitoring Network, bringing the total to 19 Network wells sampled in the WLCI region since 2010. Combined, these water-monitoring efforts can help to identify potential changes in water quality or levels that may result from land-use changes. Major terrestrial monitoring accomplishments included processing satellite imagery from 1985−2010 to develop a historical perspective of long-term vegetation changes, which can serve as a basis for monitoring current and future trends in sagebrush steppe. Such data are crucial tools for agencies tasked with sage-grouse management and conservation. The USGS WLCI Science Team also continued monitoring and testing methods for evaluating WLCI habitat treatments designed to promote aspen regeneration and enhance sage-grouse habitat, and to assess how those treatments influence invasive species distributions and ungulate herbivory. Highlights included analyzing field data collected to elucidate the relationships between sage-grouse habitat use and the proximity of energy infrastructure, and using new instruments to measure productivity responses of aspen woodlands to various factors. Numerous FY2014 accomplishments specifically addressed agency needs to manage and conserve Wyoming’s wildlife species of concern. A pygmy rabbit habitat model and Wyoming distribution map were completed to identify factors associated with rabbit habitat occupancy. Previous work on sage-grouse population dynamics was expanded to better understand the factors that drive long-term viability of sage-grouse populations and to develop a tool that helps to identify key factors limiting sage-grouse persistence in Wyoming. Field work and data analyses continued for elucidating the relationships between sagebrush songbird abundance and productivity, the intensity of energy development, and community dynamics of nest predators. For the mule deer study, mixed mountain shrublands important to migrating and wintering mule deer were mapped and delivered to WLCI partners. Additionally, the relationships between energy development and crucial winter habitat for mule deer were evaluated, and a new phase of work was implemented to better understand relationships between plant phenology and mule deer migration movements. Finally, initial analyses of data collected to evaluate fish-community composition in relation to habitat quality indicate that water quality, as measured by concentrations of hydrocarbons, water temperature, and others parameters, has been diminished in subwatersheds with higher levels of energy development. Overall, the outcomes and products of these wildlife studies contribute significantly to the information and tools needed for addressing effects of land-use changes on Wyoming’s species of concern. Finally, capabilities of the WLCI Web site and the USGS ScienceBase infrastructure were maintained and upgraded to help ensure access to and efficient use of all the WLCI data, products, assessment tools, and outreach materials that have been developed. Of particular note is the completion of three Web applications developed for mapping (1) the 1900−2008 progression of oil and gas development;(2) the predicted distributions of Wyoming’s Species of Greatest Conservation Need; and (3) the locations of coal and wind energy production, sage-grouse distribution and core management areas, and alternative routes for transmission lines within the WLCI region. Collectively, these applications tools provide WLCI planners and managers with powerful tools for better understanding the distributions of wildlife species and potential alternatives for energy development.

Wyoming

Integrating physiology, population dynamics and climate to make multi-scale predictions for the spread of an invasive insect: The Argentine ant at Haleakala National Park, Hawaii

Mechanistic models for predicting species’ distribution patterns present particular advantages and challenges relative to models developed from statistical correlations between distribution and climate. They can be especially useful for predicting the range of invasive species whose distribution has not yet reached equilibrium. Here, we illustrate how a physiological model of development for the invasive Argentine ant can be connected to differences in micro-site suitability, population dynamics and climatic gradients; processes operating at quite different spatial scales. Our study is located in the subalpine shrubland of Haleakala National Park, Hawaii, where the spread of Argentine ants Linepithema humile has been documented for the past twenty-five years. We report four main results. First, at a microsite level, the accumulation of degree-days recorded in potential ant nest sites under bare ground or rocks was significantly greater than under a groundcover of grassy vegetation. Second, annual degree-days measured where population boundaries have not expanded (456-521 degree-days), were just above the developmental requirements identified from earlier laboratory studies (445 degree-days above 15.98C). Third, rates of population expansion showed a strong linear relationship with annual degree-days. Finally, an empirical relationship between soil degree-days and climate variables mapped at a broader scale predicts the potential for future range expansion of Argentine ants at Haleakala, particularly to the west of the lower colony and the east of the upper colony. Variation in the availability of suitable microsites, driven by changes in vegetation cover and ultimately climate, provide a hierarchical understanding of the distribution of Argentine ants close to their cold-wet limit of climatic tolerances. We conclude that the integration of physiology, population dynamics and climate mapping holds much promise for making more robust predictions about the potential spread of invasive species.

Hawaii

Elk-effects vegetation monitoring program for Tomales Point Elk Range, Point Reyes National Seashore, California

The monitoring program for elk effects on Tomales Point vegetation is designed to provide information on how tule elk grazing affects plant communities and rare species. The basic objective of the program is to show whether the elk are driving the vegetation into an unacceptable state by their grazing. The expectation is that as elk numbers increase, grazing pressure will increase too, resulting in unacceptable levels of any or all of the following: low vegetation ground cover, poor nutritional quality for the elk, undesirable increases in weedy species, unacceptable loss of native plant biodiversity, population declines in rare plants, population declines in plants used for food and nectar by the endangered silverspot butterfly, and increased erosion. The monitoring program has 3 basic components designed to provide complementary information on different aspects of the elk-vegetation system. Long-term plant community monitoring along permanent transects will show how plant species composition and cover are changing since cattle removal in 1979, and it will show whether any of he undesirable traits listed above are developing in the vegetation. However, monitoring these transects alone will not tell us what the effects of continued grazing by elk are apart from changes the vegetation would be undergoing anyway. In order to tease apart the elk effects from change that is happening because of cattle removal, elk exclosures are needed. By sampling inside and outside exclosures, we will be able to see how elk are modifying the rates and directions of change in the vegetation that would be happening in their absence. In a sense, the exclosures serve as a “check” on elk effects. They will allow us to interpret how much of the change is due to elk and how much can be attributed to other processes such as natural succession or weather patterns. This information will allow us to analyze whether changing elk management will have a desirable effect on the vegetation. Finally, periodic mapping and counting of plants in rare plant populations will show whether plant population ranges are expanding and populations are stable or growing. If not, then management actions can be taken to improve habitat conditions for the plants. A general summary of the rationale and sample design for each of the 3 components of the elk-effects monitoring program follows. Field sampling for the entire program should require about 15 weeks for a 2 to 3- person team, and data processing, analysis, and report writing should require about 9 weeks. Time and labor estimates for this program are given in Table A-1. In addition to elk-effects monitoring, Point Reyes staff periodically monitor fire transects and residual dry matter plots on Tomales Point. They are not included as part of the elk-effects monitoring program and they are described elsewhere. Protocols for fire and residual dry matter sampling are not included in the time estimate for the elk- effects monitoring program.

Open-File Report

Field-based evaluation of two herbaceous plant community composition sampling methods for long-term monitoring in Northern Great Plains National Parks

The Northern Great Plains Inventory & Monitoring (I&M) Network (Network) of the National Park Service (NPS) consists of 13 NPS units in North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, and eastern Wyoming. The Network is in the planning phase of a long-term program to monitor the health of park ecosystems. Plant community composition is one of the 'Vital Signs,' or indicators, that will be monitored as part of this program for three main reasons. First, plant community composition is information-rich; a single sampling protocol can provide information on the diversity of native and non-native species, the abundance of individual dominant species, and the abundance of groups of plants. Second, plant community composition is of specific management concern. The abundance and diversity of exotic plants, both absolute and relative to native species, is one of the greatest management concerns in almost all Network parks (Symstad 2004). Finally, plant community composition reflects the effects of a variety of current or anticipated stressors on ecosystem health in the Network parks including invasive exotic plants, large ungulate grazing, lack of fire in a fire-adapted system, chemical exotic plant control, nitrogen deposition, increased atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations, and climate change. Before the Network begins its Vital Signs monitoring, a detailed plan describing specific protocols used for each of the Vital Signs must go through rigorous development and review. The pilot study on which we report here is one of the components of this protocol development. The goal of the work we report on here was to determine a specific method to use for monitoring plant community composition of the herb layer (< 2 m tall).

Open-File Report

Simulating potential structural and operational changes for Detroit Dam on the North Santiam River, Oregon, for downstream temperature management

Detroit Dam was constructed in 1953 on the North Santiam River in western Oregon and resulted in the formation of Detroit Lake. With a full-pool storage volume of 455,100 acre-feet and a dam height of 463 feet, Detroit Lake is one of the largest and most important reservoirs in the Willamette River basin in terms of power generation, recreation, and water storage and releases. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers operates Detroit Dam as part of a system of 13 reservoirs in the Willamette Project to meet multiple goals, which include flood-damage protection, power generation, downstream navigation, recreation, and irrigation. A distinct cycle in water temperature occurs in Detroit Lake as spring and summer heating through solar radiation creates a warm layer of water near the surface and isolates cold water below. Controlling the temperature of releases from Detroit Dam, therefore, is highly dependent on the location, characteristics, and usage of the dam's outlet structures. Prior to operational changes in 2007, Detroit Dam had a well-documented effect on downstream water temperature that was problematic for endangered salmonid fish species, releasing water that was too cold in midsummer and too warm in autumn. This unnatural seasonal temperature pattern caused problems in the timing of fish migration, spawning, and emergence. In this study, an existing calibrated 2-dimensional hydrodynamic water-quality model [CE-QUAL-W2] of Detroit Lake was used to determine how changes in dam operation or changes to the structural release points of Detroit Dam might affect downstream water temperatures under a range of historical hydrologic and meteorological conditions. The results from a subset of the Detroit Lake model scenarios then were used as forcing conditions for downstream CE-QUAL-W2 models of Big Cliff Reservoir (the small reregulating reservoir just downstream of Detroit Dam) and the North Santiam and Santiam Rivers. Many combinations of environmental, operational, and structural options were explored with the model scenarios. Multiple downstream temperature targets were used along with three sets of environmental forcing conditions representing cool/wet, normal, and hot/dry conditions. Five structural options at Detroit Dam were modeled, including the use of existing outlets, one hypothetical variable-elevation outlet such as a sliding gate, a hypothetical combination of a floating outlet and a fixed-elevation outlet, and a hypothetical combination of a floating outlet and a sliding gate. Finally, 14 sets of operational guidelines for Detroit Dam were explored to gain an understanding of the effects of imposing different downstream minimum streamflows, imposing minimum outflow rules to specific outlets, and managing the level of the lake with different timelines through the year. Selected subsets of these combinations of operational and structural scenarios were run through the downstream models of Big Cliff Reservoir and the North Santiam and Santiam Rivers to explore how hypothetical changes at Detroit Dam might provide improved temperatures for endangered salmonids downstream of the Detroit-Big Cliff Dam complex. Conclusions that can be drawn from these model scenarios include: *The water-temperature targets set by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers for releases from Detroit Dam can be met through a combination of new dam outlets or a delayed drawdown of the lake in autumn. *Spring and summer dam operations greatly affect the available release temperatures and operational flexibility later in the autumn. Releasing warm water during midsummer tends to keep more cool water available for release in autumn. *The ability to meet downstream temperature targets during spring depends on the characteristics of the available outlets. Under existing conditions, although warm water sometimes is present at the lake surface in spring and early summer, such water may not be available for release if the lake level is either well below or well above the spillway crest. *Managing lake releases to meet downstream temperature targets depends on having outlet structures that can access both (warm) lake surface water and (cold) deeper lake water throughout the year. The existing outlets at Detroit Dam do not allow near-surface waters to be released during times when the lake surface level is below the spillway (spring and autumn). *Using the existing outlets at Detroit Dam, lake level management is important to the water temperature of releases because it controls the availability and depth of water at the spillway. When lake level is lowered below the spillway crest in late summer, the loss of access to warm water at the lake surface can result in abrupt changes to release temperatures. *Because the power-generation intakes (penstocks) are 166 feet below the full-pool lake level, imposing minimum power production requirements at Detroit Dam limits the amount of warm surface water that can be expelled from the lake in midsummer, thereby postponing and amplifying warm outflows from Detroit Lake into the autumn spawning season. *Likewise, imposing minimum power production requirements at Detroit Dam in autumn can limit the amount of cool hypolimnetic water that is released from the lake, thereby limiting cool outflows from Detroit Lake during the autumn spawning season. *Model simulations indicate that a delayed drawdown of Detroit Lake in autumn would result in better control over release temperatures in the immediate downstream vicinity of Big Cliff Dam, but the reduced outflows necessary to retain more water in the lake in late summer are more susceptible to rapid heating downstream. *Compared to the existing outlets at Detroit Dam, floating or sliding-gate outlet structures can provide greater control over release temperatures because they provide better access to warm water at the lake surface and cooler water at depth. These conclusions can be grouped into several common themes. First, optimal and flexible management and achievement of downstream temperature goals requires that releases of warm water near the surface of the lake and cold water below the thermocline are both possible with the available dam outlets during spring, summer, and autumn. This constraint can be met to some extent with existing outlets, but only if access to the spillway is extended into autumn by keeping the lake level higher than called for by the current rule curve (the typical target water-surface elevation throughout the year). If new outlets are considered, a variable-elevation outlet such as a sliding gate structure, or a floating outlet in combination with a fixed-elevation outlet at sufficient depth to access cold water, is likely to work well in terms of accessing a range of water temperatures and achieving downstream temperature targets. Furthermore, model results indicate that it is important to release warm water from near the lake surface during midsummer. If not released downstream, the warm water will build up at the top of the lake as a result of solar energy inputs and the thermocline will deepen, potentially causing warm water to reach the depth of deeper fixed-elevation outlets in autumn, particularly when the lake level is drawn down to make room for flood storage. Delaying the drawdown in autumn can help to keep the thermocline above such outlets and preserve access to cold water. Although it is important to generate hydropower at Detroit Dam, minimum power-production requirements limit the ability of dam operators to meet downstream temperature targets with existing outlet structures. The location of the power penstocks below the thermocline in spring and most of summer causes the release of more cool water during summer than is optimal. Reducing the power-production constraint allows the temperature target to be met more frequently, but at the cost of less power generation. Finally, running the Detroit Dam, Big Cliff Dam, and North Santiam and Santiam River models in series allows dam operators to evaluate how different operational strategies or combinations of new dam outlets might affect downstream temperatures for many miles of critical endangered salmonid habitat. Temperatures can change quickly in these downstream reaches as the river exchanges heat with its surroundings, and heating or cooling of 6 degrees Celsius is not unusual in the 40–50 miles downstream of Big Cliff Dam. The results published in this report supersede preliminary results published in U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 2011-1268 (Buccola and Rounds, 2011). Those preliminary results are still valid, but the results in this report are more current and comprehensive.

Oregon

Plankton communities and summertime declines in algal abundance associated with low dissolved oxygen in the Tualatin River, Oregon

Phytoplankton populations in the Tualatin River in northwestern Oregon are an important component of the dissolved oxygen (DO) budget of the river and are critical for maintaining DO levels in summer. During the low-flow summer period, sufficient nutrients and a long residence time typically combine with ample sunshine and warm water to fuel blooms of cryptophyte algae, diatoms, green and blue-green algae in the low-gradient, slow-moving reservoir reach of the lower river. Algae in the Tualatin River generally drift with the water rather than attach to the river bottom as a result of moderate water depths, slightly elevated turbidity caused by suspended colloidal material, and dominance of silty substrates. Growth of algae occurs as if on a “conveyor belt” of streamflow, a dynamic system that is continually refreshed with inflowing water. Transit through the system can take as long as 2 weeks during the summer low-flow period. Photosynthetic production of DO during algal blooms is important in offsetting oxygen consumption at the sediment-water interface caused by the decomposition of organic matter from primarily terrestrial sources, and the absence of photosynthesis can lead to low DO concentrations that can harm aquatic life. The periods with the lowest DO concentrations in recent years (since 2003) typically occur in August following a decline in algal abundance and activity, when DO concentrations often decrease to less than State standards for extended periods (nearly 80 days). Since 2003, algal populations have tended to be smaller and algal blooms have terminated earlier compared to conditions in the 1990s, leading to more frequent declines in DO to levels that do not meet State standards. This study was developed to document the current abundance and species composition of phytoplankton in the Tualatin River, identify the possible causes of the general decline in algae, and evaluate hypotheses to explain why algal blooms diminish in midsummer. Plankton and water-quality sample data from 2006 to 2008 were combined with parts of a larger discrete-sample and continuous water-quality monitoring dataset and examined to identify patterns in water-quality and algal conditions since 1991, with a particular emphasis on 2003–08. Longitudinal plankton surveys were conducted in 2006–08 at six sites between river miles (RM) 24.5 and 3.4 at 2- to 3-week intervals, or 5–6 per season, and in-situ bioassay experiments were conducted in 2008 to examine the potential effects of wastewater treatment facility (WWTF) effluent and phosphorus additions on phytoplankton biomass and algal photosynthesis. Phytoplankton and zooplankton community composition, streamflow, and water-quality data were analyzed using multivariate statistical techniques to gain insights into plankton dynamics to determine what factors might be most tied to the abundance and characteristics of the phytoplankton assemblages, and identify possible causes of their declines. The connection between low-DO events and algal declines was clearly evident, as bloom crashes were nearly always followed by periods of low DO. Algal blooms occurred each year during 2006–08, producing maximum chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) values in June or July generally in the range of 50–80 micrograms per liter (µg/L). Bloom crashes and absence of sufficient algal photosynthesis in mid- to late-summer contributed to minimum DO concentrations that were less than the State standard of 6.5 milligrams per liter (mg/L) based on the 30-day mean daily concentration, for 62–74 days each year. At times, the absolute minimum State standard (4 mg/L DO) also was not met. To learn more about why low-DO events occurred, specific algal declines during 2003–08 were scrutinized to determine their likely causal factors. From this information, a series of hypotheses were formulated and evaluated in terms of their ability to explain recent declines in algal populations in the river in late summer. Meteorological, streamflow, turbidity, water temperature, and conductance conditions in the Tualatin River during the 2006–08 summer seasons were not atypical. Natural flow comprised the majority (70–80 percent) of flow each year during spring, but then reduced to 38–40 percent during midsummer when WWTF effluent—which contributed as much as 36 percent—and flow augmentation releases comprised a greater fraction of the flow. Summer 2008 was unusual, however, in the prolonged influence from the Wapato Lake agricultural area near Gaston in the upper part of the basin. The previous winter flooding and levee breach at Wapato Lake caused a much greater area of inundation. As a result, drainage from this area continued into July, much later than normal. A subsequent algal bloom in Wapato Lake then seeded the upper Tualatin River, and this drainage had a profound effect on the downstream plankton community. A large blue-green algae bloom developed—the largest in recent memory—prompting a public health advisory for recreational contact for about two weeks. Algal growths and surface blooms are a common feature of the Tualatin River. Most of the dominant algae have growth forms and morphologies that are well suited for planktonic life, employing spines and gas vacuoles to resist settling, forming colonies, and producing mucilage (or toxins) to resist zooplankton grazing. In 2006–08, 143 algal taxa were identified in 117 main-stem samples; diatoms and green algae were more diverse than blue-green, golden, and cryptophyte algae, although these later groups sometimes dominated the overall volumetric abundance (biovolume). The most frequently occurring taxa, occurring in 97–99 percent of samples, were flagellated cryptophytes Cryptomonas erosa and Rhodomonas minuta. Other important algal taxa included centric diatoms Stephanodiscus, Cyclotella, and Melosira species and colonial green algae Scenedesmus and Actinastrum. These taxa comprised the majority of the algal biovolume during much of the growing season. A general seasonal trend in the phytoplankton assemblages was observed, with dominance by filamentous centric diatoms Stephanodiscus and Melosira in spring and early summer, and flagellated cryptophytes and green algae, particularly Chlamydomonas sp., in late-summer; or, in 2008, dominance by blue-green algae Anabaena flos-aquae and Aphanizomenon flos-aquae during the Wapato Lake bloom event. There were 99 zooplankton taxa identified from the Tualatin River in 2006–08, composed primarily of cladocerans, copepods, and rotifers. A seasonal increase in zooplankton abundance was observed in early summer just as or shortly after the phytoplankton population began to increase, with populations growing to 15,000−120,000 organisms per cubic meter in the lower river. Zooplankton abundance showed a predictable and distinct longitudinal downstream increase, particularly downstream of Highway 99W (RM 11.6). Although grazing rates were not measured, the data suggest that, at times, zooplankton grazing may affect algal abundance and species composition in the Tualatin River, with diatoms becoming relatively less abundant and flagellated cryptophytes and green algae relatively more abundant during periods when zooplankton densities were highest. Multivariate statistical analyses identified soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP), natural flow, flow augmentation, and WWTF effluent as important factors influencing Tualatin River phytoplankton populations, with zooplankton density (particularly rotifers and copepods), specific conductance, chloride, and water temperature also having an important influence. Although SRP was highly correlated with the plankton communities, that correlation was likely the result of high or low algal activity (uptake) as SRP concentrations were often reduced to low levels during blooms. While previous studies have already established that phosphorus, among other factors such as flow, places a theoretical cap on the size of the phytoplankton population in the river, sometimes algal declines occur when SRP concentrations are apparently sufficient. To identify alternative causal factors, additional analyses were performed without SRP to focus on other water-quality parameters, zooplankton density, and flow factors. Considering data for all 3 years and including just those samples from the lower Tualatin River not affected by the 2008 Wapato Lake drainage event, three factors (percentage of reservoir flow augmentation, total natural flow, and rotifer density) best explained variations in the phytoplankton assemblages. Analyses focusing on the possible causes of algal declines included the above multivariate analyses, scrutiny of 10 specific instances of declines in algal populations during 2003–08 including several bloom–crash sequences, and analyses of historic routine watershed monitoring data from Clean Water Services. Six factors were hypothesized to be important in causing bloom crashes or impeding blooms from rebounding in August: (1) light limitation from cloudy weather, (2) a reduction in the plankton inocula or “seed” entering the lower river from upstream sources, (3) increased summer streamflows, (4) changes in the dominant sources of flow as the percentage of flow augmentation and WWTF discharges have increased, (5) zooplankton grazing, and (6) low concentrations of bioavailable phosphorus (<0.015 milligram per liter). All of these hypotheses are supported in some fashion by the available data and statistical analyses. Zooplankton grazing, short-term declines in photosynthesis from cloudy weather, total flow as it affects residence time, and the dominant source of flow are primary factors responsible for the low-DO events caused by declines in algae in the lower Tualatin River during late summer. Cloudy weather and increased turbidity are known to inhibit algal growth in the Tualatin River, and slight increases in turbidity in recent years may be a problem. Upstream sources of algae are critical in determining the characteristics and size of downstream populations, as illustrated by the Wapato Lake bloom in 2008, but more data are needed from upstream to fully define the importance of this connection. The sources of flow, through their differential contribution of plankton inocula (quality and amount), were, at times, important factors affecting phytoplankton populations. While SRP concentrations were often most highly correlated with phytoplankton species community, the bioavailability of phosphorus is still somewhat unknown and there are several sources to consider. Preliminary bioassay tests suggested that while treated wastewater effluent may stimulate algae at 30 percent concentrations, negative effects (or decreased stimulation) on Chl-a and DO production may occur at concentrations of 50 percent. Targeted data collection and future research will be needed to further understand the importance of these factors on Tualatin River phytoplankton. While the data and analysis completed for this report provide insights into future research and monitoring that would be useful to continue, additional monitoring of turbidity, Chl-a, and plankton abundance and species composition in the upper part of the basin would enhance our understanding of plankton dynamics and factors affecting phytoplankton abundance in the lower river. Assessment of the key upstream sources of algal inocula via surveys of the major flow sources as well as tributaries and wetlands would provide useful information for the management of river water quality. Other studies that could prove useful for developing management strategies include targeted experiments to evaluate the bioavailability of phosphorus from a variety of sources. New research on phytoplankton–zooplankton interactions, and studies of planktivorous fish, might also provide insight about food web dynamics and potential “top-down” effects of fish predation on the plankton communities. In addition, further development of neural-network or other water-quality models would help to evaluate management strategies and provide forecasts of water-quality conditions. Finally, periodic future reassessments of the available data with the multivariate statistical tools used in this study would be helpful to assess whether and how plankton communities are changing, and to continue to shed light on the importance of factors shaping the plankton. Although certain types and sizes of algal blooms are undesirable, minimum phytoplankton populations are an important part of aquatic food webs and are needed to maintain healthy levels of DO in the river. By understanding the sources, characteristics, causal factors, and responses of the plankton communities, management strategies can be developed to improve DO conditions in the lower Tualatin River during the important summer low-flow period.

Oregon

Preliminary report on using imaging spectroscopy to map ultramafic rocks, serpentinites, and tremolite-actinolite-bearing rocks in California

Airborne Visible/InfraRed Imaging Spectrometer (AVIRIS) data were collected in approximately 3- kilometer-wide swaths over selected areas in El Dorado and Plumas Counties that contain serpentinite and ultramafic rocks as part of an experiment to determine if potentially asbestos-bearing rocks could be identified spectrally. M ineral maps created from the AVIRIS data were used successfully to delineate exposures of serpentine and tremolite-actinolite/talc in areas with up to 70 percent vegetation cover in some cases. In other cases, the density of vegetation is so high that it prevented spectral identification by AVIRIS of minerals in those areas, thus there may be more serpentine and tremolite-actinolite/talc present than is shown on the mineral maps. It also is important to note that not all tremolite-actinolite is fibrous, and just because tremolite-actinolite was mapped, does not necessarily mean it is tremolite- or actinolite-asbestos. Finally, it is difficult to spectrally distinguish tremolite-actinolite from talc using AVIRIS. Serpentine has been detected outside of known serpentinite outcrop areas, mostly as aggregate that covers dirt roads. Four flight lines of AVIRIS data were analyzed over areas selected to show trends in degree of surface exposure as a function of elevation and vegetation cover. Field checking has verified the accuracy of the mineral maps at 25 accessible locations. Eleven additional flight lines remain to be analyzed and field checked pending future funding. AVIRIS mineral mapping has shown promise as a complement to field mapping but cannot replace it. Because AVIRIS is a remote-sensing technology, the presence of serpentine or tremolite-actinolite would have to be verified in the field by direct observation and by appropriate sampling and laboratory analysis, if needed. At this time, no conclusions regarding the presence or absence of asbestos minerals in the identified areas are possible from the AVIRIS data alone. Identification of asbestos minerals in the identified areas would require appropriate sampling and laboratory analysis of the materials in those areas.

California

Degassing of CO2, SO2, and H2S associated with the 2009 eruption of Redoubt Volcano, Alaska

The 2009 eruption of Redoubt Volcano, Alaska was particularly well monitored for volcanic gas emissions. We report 35 airborne measurements of CO 2 , SO 2 , and H 2 S emission rates that span from October 2008 to August 2010. The magmatic system degassed primarily as a closed system although minor amounts of open system degassing were observed in the 6 months prior to eruption on March 15, 2009 and over 1 year following cessation of dome extrusion. Only 14% of the total CO 2 was emitted prior to eruption even though high emissions rates (between 3630 and 9020 t/d) were observed in the final 6 weeks preceding the eruption. A minor amount of the total SO 2 was observed prior to eruption (4%), which was consistent with the low emission rates at that time (up to 180 t/d). The amount of the gas emitted during the explosive and dome growth period (March 15–July 1, 2009) was 59 and 66% of the total CO 2 and SO 2 , respectively. Maximum emission rates were 33,110 t/d CO 2 , 16,650 t/d SO 2 , and 1230 t/d H 2 S. Post-eruptive passive degassing was responsible for 27 and 30% of the total CO 2 and SO 2 , respectively. SO 2 made up on average 92% of the total sulfur degassing throughout the eruption. Magmas were vapor saturated with a C- and S-rich volatile phase, and regardless of composition, the magmas appear to be buffered by a volatile composition with a molar CO 2 /SO 2 ratio of ~ 2.4. Primary volatile contents calculated from degassing and erupted magma volumes range from 0.9 to 2.1 wt.% CO 2 and 0.27–0.56 wt.% S; whole-rock normalized values are slightly lower (0.8–1.7 wt.% CO 2 and 0.22–0.47 wt.% S) and are similar to what was calculated for the 1989–90 eruption of Redoubt. Such contents argue that primary arc magmas are rich in CO 2 and S. Similar trends between volumes of estimated degassed magma and observed erupted magma during the eruptive period point to primary volatile contents of 1.25 wt.% CO 2 and 0.35 wt.% S. Assuming these values, up to 30% additional unerupted magma degassed in the year following final dome emplacement.

Alaska

Bathymetry and acoustic backscatter: Elwha River Delta, Washington

Between February 22 and March 3, 2010, scientists from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center (PCMSC), acquired bathymetry and acoustic-backscatter data from the Elwha River Delta, Strait of Juan de Fuca, Washington, under PCMSC Field Activity ID S-6-10-PS. Three ancillary surveys were conducted when sea conditions were too rough for surveying outside the harbor breakwaters. The first ancillary survey was of the area surrounding the abandoned Rayonier Pier site in Port Angeles Harbor, a former log-storage facility on the southern side of Ediz Hook near the Port Angeles Coast Guard Station. Finally, several lines of bathymetry and backscatter data were collected on the outer face of Ediz Hook as the vessel transited to and from the Elwha River Delta. These data were collected to inspect failure features along the northern edge of Ediz Hook that were first observed in 2005 during USGS cruise K-1-05-PS. The surveys were conducted using the R/V Parke Snavely outfitted with an interferometric sidescan sonar for swath mapping and real-time kinematic navigation equipment for accurate shallow water operations. This report provides these data in a number of different formats, as well as a summary of the mapping mission, maps of bathymetry and backscatter, and Federal Geographic Data Committee (FGDC) metadata.

Open-File Report

Mineral resource assessment of selected areas in Clark and Nye Counties, Nevada

During 2004-2006, the U.S. Geological Survey conducted a mineral resource assessment of selected areas administered by the Bureau of Land Management in Clark and Nye Counties, Nevada. The purpose of this study is to provide the BLM with information for land planning and management and, specifically, to determine mineral resource potential in accordance with regulations in 43 CFR 2310, which governs the withdrawal of public lands. The Clark County Conservation of Public Land and Natural Resources Act of 2002 (Public Law 107-282) temporarily withdraws a group of areas designated as Areas of Critical Environmental Concern (ACECs) from mineral entry, pending final approval of an application for permanent withdrawal by the BLM. This study provides information about mineral resource potential of the ACECs. Existing information was compiled about the ACECs, including geology, geophysics, geochemistry, and mineral-deposit information. Field examinations of selected areas and mineral occurrences were conducted to determine their geologic setting and mineral potential.

Nevada

Selected special conditions affecting peak streamflow and extreme floods in Alaska through water year 2022

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Alaska Department of Transportation and Public Facilities, inventoried selected special conditions for annual peak flows and identified extreme floods at streamgages in Alaska through water year 2022 to facilitate hydrologic analysis. Special conditions identified from U.S. Geological Survey gaging records and basin characteristics included regulation and diversion, urbanization, indeterminate drainage areas, drainage areas less than the minimum used in regional analyses, glacial lake outburst floods, other outburst floods, and snowmelt floods. For peak flows that occurred during calendar years 1980–2019, an atmospheric river dataset was used to identify atmospheric river presence or absence on the dates peak flows occurred. Extreme floods (defined as peak flows exceeding the 1-percent annual exceedance probability flood magnitude or an empirical measure of relative magnitude using Creager’s coefficient C) were identified and associated with flood-generating mechanisms using the other inventoried special conditions and other information. The gaging record contained glacial lake outburst floods at 15 streamgages and other types of outburst floods at 10 streamgages. Non-outburst peak flows in Alaska resulted from a mixture of rainfall and melt-based flood-generating mechanisms in all but the most rain-dominated seasonal flow regime. Melt-based flood-generating mechanisms included snowmelt, high-elevation snow and ice melt, or rain-on-snow events. Atmospheric rivers were common in Alaska and conterminous basins in Canada, occurring in that region on 67 percent of the days in the calendar year 1980–2019 period. Atmospheric rivers were more common on the days of peak flows and even more common on the days of non-outburst extreme floods. The percentage of days when an atmospheric river was present increased to 78 percent for the days of peak flows in that period and to 83 percent for the days of non-outburst extreme floods in that period. Of 149 extreme floods in the gaging record, 38 were generated by outburst floods. Of the non-outburst extreme floods, 72 percent were generated by rainfall and 26 percent were generated by melt-based processes or a combination of rainfall and melt-based processes. Flood-generating mechanisms could not be determined for the final 2 percent of the non-outburst extreme floods because the month and day of the peak flows were unknown and no other information was available. Secondary factors strongly associated with extreme floods included antecedent rain and streamflow conditions and warm storm conditions that produced rain instead of snow or generated snowmelt.

Alaska

Ground-water levels, water quality, and potential effects of toxic-substance spills or cessation of quarry dewatering near a municipal ground-water supply, southern Franklin County, Ohio

A newly completed municipal ground-water supply that produces from a sand and gravel aquifer in southern Franklin County, Ohio, may be susceptible to potential sources of pollution. Among these are spills of toxic substances that could enter recharge areas of the aquifer or be carried by surface drainage and subsequently enter the aquifer by induced infiltration. Ground water of degraded quality also is present in the vicinity of several landfills located upstream from the municipal supply. Local dewatering by quarrying operations has created a ground-water divide which, at present, prevents direct movement of the degraded ground water to the municipal supply. In addition, the dewatering has held water levels at the largest landfills below the base of the landfill. Should the dewatering cease, concern would be raised regarding the rise of water levels at this landfills and transport of contaminants through the aquifer to the Scioto River and subsequently by the river to the well field. From June 1984 through July 1986, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the City of Columbus, Ohio, investigated the relations among the ground-water supply and potential sources of contamination by means of an observation-well network and a program of measuring water levels and sampling for water quality. Sample collections included those made to determine the baseline levels of organic chemicals and metals, as well as periodic sampling and analysis for common constituents to evaluate any changes taking place in the system. Finally, a steady-state, three-dimensional numerical model was used to determine ground-water flow directions and average ground-water velocities to asses potential effects of toxic-substance spills. The model also was used to simulate changes in the ground-water flow system that could result if part or all of the quarry dewatering ceased. Few of the organic-chemical and metal constituents analyzed for were present at detectable levels. With respect to chemical analysis of water and soil materials reported in earlier studies, no new problem areas were discovered as a result of either the baseline or periodic samplings. Model simulations suggest that, under March 1986 conditions, a toxic-substance spill along the major highways in the northern two-thirds of the study area eventually could discharge into one of the two quarries being dewatered or into the Scioto River. A toxic-substance spill in the southern one-third of the study area ultimately may discharge into the Scioto River, Big Walnut Creek, or possibly into the municipal ground-water supply. Model simulations also indicate that concentrated landfill leachate probably would not reach the municipal ground-water supply under current or well-field pumping conditions if dewatering ceased at either or both of the quarries.

Ohio

Local-area-enhanced, 2.5-meter resolution natural-color and color-infrared satellite-image mosaics of the South Bamyan mineral district in Afghanistan

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the U.S. Department of Defense Task Force for Business and Stability Operations, prepared databases for mineral-resource target areas in Afghanistan. The purpose of the databases is to (1) provide useful data to ground-survey crews for use in performing detailed assessments of the areas and (2) provide useful information to private investors who are considering investment in a particular area for development of its natural resources. The set of satellite-image mosaics provided in this Data Series (DS) is one such database. Although airborne digital color-infrared imagery was acquired for parts of Afghanistan in 2006, the image data have radiometric variations that preclude their use in creating a consistent image mosaic for geologic analysis. Consequently, image mosaics were created using ALOS (Advanced Land Observation Satellite; renamed Daichi) satellite images, whose radiometry has been well determined (Saunier, 2007a,b). This part of the DS consists of the locally enhanced ALOS image mosaics for the South Bamyan mineral district, which has areas with a spectral reflectance anomaly that require field investigation. ALOS was launched on January 24, 2006, and provides multispectral images from the AVNIR (Advanced Visible and Near-Infrared Radiometer) sensor in blue (420–500 nanometer, nm), green (520–600 nm), red (610–690 nm), and near-infrared (760–890 nm) wavelength bands with an 8-bit dynamic range and a 10-meter (m) ground resolution. The satellite also provides a panchromatic band image from the PRISM (Panchromatic Remote-sensing Instrument for Stereo Mapping) sensor (520–770 nm) with the same dynamic range but a 2.5-m ground resolution. The image products in this DS incorporate copyrighted data provided by the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (©JAXA,2006,2007, 2008),but the image processing has altered the original pixel structure and all image values of the JAXA ALOS data, such that original image values cannot be recreated from this DS. As such, the DS products match JAXA criteria for value added products, which are not copyrighted, according to the ALOS end-user license agreement. The selection criteria for the satellite imagery used in our mosaics were images having (1) the highest solar-elevation angles (near summer solstice) and (2) the least cloud, cloud-shadow, and snow cover. The multispectral and panchromatic data were orthorectified with ALOS satellite ephemeris data, a process which is not as accurate as orthorectification using digital elevation models (DEMs); however, the ALOS processing center did not have a precise DEM. As a result, the multispectral and panchromatic image pairs were generally not well registered to the surface and not coregistered well enough to perform resolution enhancement on the multispectral data. Therefore, it was necessary to (1) register the 10-m AVNIR multispectral imagery to a well-controlled Landsat image base, (2) mosaic the individual multispectral images into a single image of the entire area of interest, (3) register each panchromatic image to the registered multispectral image base, and (4) mosaic the individual panchromatic images into a single image of the entire area of interest. The two image-registration steps were facilitated using an automated control-point algorithm developed by the USGS that allows image coregistration to within one picture element. Before rectification, the multispectral and panchromatic images were converted to radiance values and then to relative-reflectance values using the methods described in Davis (2006). Mosaicking the multispectral or panchromatic images started with the image with the highest sun-elevation angle and the least atmospheric scattering, which was treated as the standard image. The band-reflectance values of all other multispectral or panchromatic images within the area were sequentially adjusted to that of the standard image by determining band-reflectance correspondence between overlapping images using linear least-squares analysis. The resolution of the multispectral image mosaic was then increased to that of the panchromatic image mosaic using the SPARKLE logic, which is described in Davis (2006). Each of the four-band images within the resolution-enhanced image mosaic was individually subjected to a local-area histogram stretch algorithm (described in Davis, 2007), which stretches each band's picture element based on the digital values of all picture elements within a 500-m radius. The final databases, which are provided in this DS, are three-band, color-composite images of the local-area-enhanced, natural-color data (the blue, green, and red wavelength bands) and color-infrared data (the green, red, and near-infrared wavelength bands). All image data were initially projected and maintained in Universal Transverse Mercator (UTM) map projection using the target area's local zone (42 for South Bamyan) and the WGS84 datum. The final image mosaics for the South Bamyan area are provided as embedded geotiff images, which can be read and used by most geographic information system (GIS) and image-processing software. The tiff world files (tfw) are provided, even though they are generally not needed for most software to read an embedded geotiff image.

South Bamyan Mineral District

Cross sections showing stratigraphic and depositional lithofacies of upper Cambrian rocks and the relation of lithofacies to potential for Mississippi Valley-type mineralization in the Harrison 1° x 2° quadrangle, Missouri and Arkansas (folio of the Harrison 1 degree by 2 degrees quadrangle, Missouri and Arkansas)

These cross sections are the fifth publication in a folio of maps of the Harrison 1&deg; x 2&deg; quadrangle, Missouri and Arkansas, prepared under the Conterminous United States Mineral Assessment Program (CUSMAP). Previously published maps in this folio relate to the geochemistry of the subsurface carbonate rocks (Erickson and others, 1989), the geophysics of the basement terranes (McCafferty and others, 1989), the sedimentary rocks and mineralization of the Caulfield district (Hayes and others, 1992), the mineral resource potential of the quadrangle (Pratt and others, 1993), and the bedrock geology of the quadrangle (Middendorf and others, 1994 and in press). A final set of maps showing locations of known Mississippi Valley-type deposits and occurrences relative to Late Cambrian shaly lithofacies and other shales in the Harrison and adjoining quadrangle is in preparation (Palmer and Hayes, in press).

Arkansas, Missouri

Regional seismic lines reprocessed using post-stack processing techniques: National Petroleum Reserve, Alaska

This CD-ROM contains stacked, migrated, 2-Dimensional seismic reflection data and associated support information for 22 regional seismic lines (3,470 line-miles) recorded in the National Petroleum Reserve – Alaska (NPRA) from 1974 through 1981. Together, these lines constitute about one-quarter of the seismic data collected as part of the Federal Government’s program to evaluate the petroleum potential of the Reserve. The regional lines, which form a grid covering the entire NPRA, were created by combining various individual lines recorded in different years using different recording parameters. These data were reprocessed by the USGS using modern, post-stack processing techniques, to create a data set suitable for interpretation on interactive seismic interpretation computer workstations. Reprocessing was done in support of ongoing petroleum resource studies by the USGS Energy Program. The CD-ROM contains the following files: 1) 22 files containing the digital seismic data in standard, SEG-Y format; 2) 1 file containing navigation data for the 22 lines in standard SEG-P1 format; 3) 22 small scale graphic images of each seismic line in Adobe Acrobat ® PDF format; 4) a graphic image of the location map, generated from the navigation file, with hyperlinks to the graphic images of the seismic lines; 5) an ASCII text file with cross-reference information for relating the sequential trace numbers on each regional line to the line number and shotpoint number of the original component lines; and 6) an explanation of the processing used to create the final seismic sections (this document). The SEG-Y format seismic files and SEG-P1 format navigation file contain all the information necessary for loading the data onto a seismic interpretation workstation.

Alaska

Secondary Mineral Deposits and Evidence of Past Seismicity and Heating of the Proposed Repository Horizon at Yucca Mountain, Nevada

The Drift Degradation Analysis (DDA) (BSC, 2003) for the proposed high-level radioactive waste repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, describes model simulations of the effects of pre- and post-closure seismicity and waste-induced heating on emplacement drifts. Based on probabilistic seismic hazard analyses of the intensity and frequency of future seismic events in the region (CRWMS M&O, 1998), the DDA concludes that future seismicity will lead to substantial damage to emplacement drifts, particularly those in the lithophysal tuffs, where some simulations predict complete collapse of the drift walls. Secondary mineral studies conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey since 1995 indicate that secondary calcite and silica have been deposited in some fractures and lithophysal cavities in the unsaturated zone (UZ) at Yucca Mountain during at least the past 10 million years (m.y.), and probably since the tuffs cooled to less than 100?C. Tuff fragments, likely generated by past seismic activity, have commonly been incorporated into the secondary mineral depositional sequences. Preliminary observations indicate that seismic activity has generated few, if any, tuff fragments during the last 2 to 4 m.y., which may be inconsistent with the predictions of drift-wall collapse described in the DDA. Whether or not seismicity-induced tuff fragmentation occurring at centimeter to decimeter scales in the fracture and cavity openings relates directly to failure of tuff walls in the 5.5-m-diameter waste emplacement drifts, the deposits do provide a potential record of the spatial and temporal distribution of tuff fragments in the UZ. In addition, the preservation of weakly attached coatings and (or) delicate, upright blades of calcite in the secondary mineral deposits provides an upper limit for ground motion during the late stage of deposition that might be used as input to future DDA simulations. Finally, bleaching and alteration at a few of the secondary mineral sites indicate that they were subjected to heated gases at approximately the temperatures expected from waste emplacement. These deposits provide at least limited textural and mineralogic analogs for waste-induced, high-humidity thermal alteration of emplacement drift wall rocks.

Water-Resources Investigations Report

Real-time telemetry and multi-state modeling

This project will result in real-time data and other invasive carp movement information to inform realtime management decisions and refine the SEICarP model. FY 2022 funding will produce final transition probability estimates from the newly-developed Bayesian multi-state model, continue the maintenance of real-time telemetry to inform contingency actions, and produce a study plan to refine fishing mortality estimates using telemetry data.

Illinois

Nutrients in the nation's streams and groundwater: National findings and implications

A comprehensive national analysis of the distribution and trends of nutrient concentrations in streams and groundwater from 1992 through 2004 is provided by the National Water-Quality Assessment (NAWQA) Program of the United States Geological Survey (USGS). Findings describe the distribution and causes of varying nutrient concentrations in streams and groundwater throughout the Nation and examine the primary sources that contribute to elevated concentrations. Results show that excessive nutrient enrichment is a widespread cause of ecological degradation in streams and that nitrate contamination of groundwater used for drinking water, particularly shallow domestic wells in agricultural areas, is a continuing human-health concern. Finally, despite major Federal, State and local nonpoint-source nutrient control efforts for streams and watersheds across the Nation, USGS trend analyses for 1993?2003 suggest limited national progress to reduce the impacts of nonpoint sources of nutrients during this period. Instead, concentrations have remained the same or increased in many streams and aquifers across the Nation, and continue to pose risks to aquatic life and human health. This Fact Sheet highlights selected national findings and their implications, and serves as a companion product to the complete analysis reported in the USGS Circular titled ?The Quality of Our Nation?s Waters?Nutrients in the Nation?s Streams and Groundwater, 1992?2004.?

Fact Sheet