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At least 991 records · Page 55Linked to original sources
USGS2018

Wave attenuation across a tidal marsh in San Francisco Bay

Wave attenuation is a central process in the mechanics of a healthy salt marsh. Understanding how wave attenuation varies with vegetation and hydrodynamic conditions informs models of other marsh processes that are a function of wave energy (e.g. sediment transport) and allows for the incorporation of marshes into coastal protection plans. Here, we examine the evolution of wave height across a tidal salt marsh in San Francisco Bay. Instruments were deployed along a cross-shore transect, starting on the mudflat and crossing through zones dominated by Spartina foliosa and Salicornia pacifica . This dataset is the first to quantify wave attenuation for these vegetation species, which are abundant in the intertidal zone of California estuaries. Measurements were collected in the summer and winter to assess seasonal variation in wave attenuation. Calculated drag coefficients of S. foliosa and S. pacifica were similar, indicating equal amounts of vegetation would lead to similar energy dissipation; however, S. pacifica has much greater biomass close to the bed (<20 cm) and retains biomass throughout the year, and therefore, it causes more total attenuation. S. foliosa dies back in the winter, and waves often grow across this section of the marsh. For both vegetation types, attenuation was greatest for low water depths, when the vegetation was emergent. For both seasons, attenuation rates across S. pacifica were the highest and were greater than published attenuation rates across similar ( Spartina alterniflora ) salt marshes for the comparable depths. These results can inform designs for marsh restorations and management plans in San Francisco Bay and other estuaries containing these species.

California↗
USGS2004

The estuarine chemistry and isotope systematics of 234,238U in the Amazon and Fly Rivers

Natural concentrations of 238U and ??234U values were determined in estuarine surface waters and pore waters of the Amazon and Fly (Papua New Guinea) Rivers to investigate U transport phenomena across river-dominated land-sea margins. Discharge from large, tropical rivers is a major source of dissolved and solid materials transported to the oceans, and are important in defining not only oceanic mass budgets, but also terrestrial weathering rates. On the Amazon shelf, salinity-property plots of dissolved organic carbon, pH and total suspended matter revealed two vastly contrasting water masses that were energetically mixed. In this mixing zone, the distribution of uranium was highly non-conservative and exhibited extensive removal from the water column. Uranium removal was most pronounced within a salinity range of 0-16.6, and likely the result of scavenging and flocculation reactions with inorganic (i.e., Fe/Mn oxides) and organic colloids/particles. Removal of uranium may also be closely coupled to exchange and resuspension processes at the sediment/water interface. An inner-shelf pore water profile indicated the following diagenetic processes: extensive (???1 m) zones of Fe(III) - and, to a lesser degree, Mn(IV) - reduction in the absence of significant S(II) concentrations appeared to facilitate the formation of various authigenic minerals (e.g., siderite, rhodocrosite and uraninite). The pore water dissolved 238U profile co-varied closely with Mn(II). Isotopic variations as evidenced in ??234U pore waters values from this site revealed information on the origin and history of particulate uranium. Only after a depth of about 1 m did the ??234U value approach unity (secular equilibrium), denoting a residual lattice bound uranium complex that is likely an upper-drainage basin weathering product. This suggests that the enriched ??234U values represent a riverine surface complexation product that is actively involved in Mn-Fe diagenetic cycles and surface complexation reactions. In the Fly River estuary, 238U appears to exhibit a reasonably conservative distribution as a function of salinity. The absence of observed U removal does not necessarily imply non-reactivity, but instead may record an integration of concurrent U removal and release processes. There is not a linear correlation between ??234U vs. 1/ 238U that would imply simple two component mixing. It is likely that resuspension of bottom sediments, prolonged residence times in the lower reaches of the Fly River, and energetic particle-colloid interactions contribute to the observed estuarine U distribution. The supply of uranium discharged from humid, tropical river systems to the sea appears to be foremost influenced by particle/water interactions that are ultimately governed by the particular physiographic and hydrologic characteristics of an estuary. ?? 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Continental Shelf Research↗
USGS2008

Anatomy of a shoreface sand ridge revisited using foraminifera: False Cape Shoals, Virginia/North Carolina inner shelf

Certain details regarding the origin and evolution of shelf sand ridges remain elusive. Knowledge of their internal stratigraphy and microfossil distribution is necessary to define the origin and to determine the processes that modify sand ridges. Fourteen vibracores from False Cape Shoal A, a well-developed shoreface-attached sand ridge on the Virginia/North Carolina inner continental shelf, were examined to document the internal stratigraphy and benthic foraminiferal assemblages, as well as to reconstruct the depositional environments recorded in down-core sediments. Seven sedimentary and foraminiferal facies correspond to the following stratigraphic units: fossiliferous silt, barren sand, clay to sandy clay, laminated and bioturbated sand, poorly sorted massive sand, fine clean sand, and poorly sorted clay to gravel. The units represent a Pleistocene estuary and shoreface, a Holocene estuary, ebb tidal delta, modern shelf, modern shoreface, and swale fill, respectively. The succession of depositional environments reflects a Pleistocene sea-level highstand and subsequent regression followed by the Holocene transgression in which barrier island/spit systems formed along the Virginia/North Carolina inner shelf ???5.2 ka and migrated landward and an ebb tidal delta that was deposited, reworked, and covered by shelf sand.

Continental Shelf Research↗
USGS2019

Influence of salinity on relative density of American crocodiles (Crocodylus acutus) in Everglades National Park: Implications for restoration of Everglades ecosystems

The status of the American crocodile (Crocodylus acutus) has long been a matter of concern in Everglades National Park (ENP) due to its classification as a federal and state listed species, its recognition as a flagship species, and its function as an ecosystem indicator. Survival and recovery of American crocodiles has been linked with regional hydrological conditions, especially freshwater flow to estuaries, which affect water levels and salinities. We hypothesize that efforts to restore natural function to Everglades ecosystems by improving water delivery into estuaries within ENP will change salinities and water levels which in turn will affect relative density of crocodiles. Monitoring ecological responses of indicator species, such as crocodiles, with respect to hydrologic change is necessary to evaluate ecosystem responses to restoration projects. Our objectives were to monitor trends in crocodile relative density within ENP and to determine influences of salinity on relative density of crocodiles. We examined count data from 12 years of crocodile spotlight surveys in ENP (2004 to 2015) and used a hierarchical model of relative density that estimated relative density with probability of detection. The mean predicted value for relative density (λ) across all surveys was 2.9 individuals/km (95% CI: 2.0 – 4.2); relative density was estimated to decrease with increases in salinity. Routes in ENP’s Flamingo/Cape Sable area had greater crocodile relative density than routes in the West Lake/Cuthbert Lake area and Northeast Florida Bay areas. These results are consistent with the hypothesis that restored flow and lower salinities will result in an increase in crocodile population size and provide support for the ecosystem management recommendations for crocodiles, which currently are to restore more natural patterns of freshwater flow to Florida Bay. Thus, monitoring relative density of American crocodiles will continue to be an effective indicator of ecological response to ecosystem restoration.

Florida↗
USGS2019

Development and implementation of an empirical habitat change model and decision support tool for estuarine ecosystems

Widespread land use change in coastal ecosystems has led to a decline in the amount of habitat available for fish and wildlife, lower production of ecosystem goods and services, and loss of recreational and aesthetic value. This has prompted global efforts to restore the natural hydrologic regimes of developed shorelines, especially resource-rich estuaries, but the resilience of these restored ecosystems in the face of accelerated sea-level rise (SLR) remains uncertain. We implemented a Mo nitoring-based S imulation of A ccretion i n C oastal E s tuaries (MOSAICS) in R statistical software to address uncertainty in the resilience of modified estuarine habitats, using the Nisqually River Delta in the Pacific Northwest USA as a case study. MOSAICS is a spatially explicit model with a numerical foundation that uses empirical monitoring datasets to forecast habitat change in response to rising tidal levels. Because it accounts for the crucial ecomorphodynamic feedbacks between tidal inundation, vegetative growth, and sediment accretion, MOSAICS can be used to determine whether alternative management scenarios, such as enhanced sediment inputs, will bolster estuarine resilience to SLR. Under moderate SLR (0.62 m), the model predicted that a two-fold increase in mean daily suspended sediment during the rainy season was sufficient to maintain Nisqually’s emergent marshes through 2100, but under high SLR (1.35 m) MOSAICS indicated that greater sediment additions would be necessary to prevent submergence. A comparison between a restored marsh with subsided and high-elevation areas and a relict marsh demonstrated that the subsided restoration area was highly susceptible to SLR. Findings from the MOSAICS model highlight the importance of a site’s initial elevation, capacity for producing above and belowground biomass, and suspended sediment availability when considering management actions in estuaries and other coastal ecosystems.

Washington↗
USGS2020

Modeling soil porewater salinity in mangrove forests (Everglades, Florida, USA) impacted by hydrological restoration and a warming climate

Hydrology is a critical driver controlling mangrove wetlands structural and functional attributes at different spatial and temporal scales. Yet, human activities have negatively affected hydrology, causing mangrove diebacks and coverage loss worldwide. In fact, the assessment of mangrove water budgets, impacted by natural and human disturbances, is limited due to a lack of long-term data and information that hinders our understanding of how changes in hydroperiod and salinity control mangrove productivity and spatial distribution. In this study, we implemented a mass balance-based hydrological model (RHYMAN) that explicitly considers groundwater discharge in the Shark River estuary (SRE, southwestern Everglades) located in a karstic geomorphic setting and influenced by regional hydrological restoration. We used long-term hydroperiod and porewater salinity (PWS) datasets obtained from 2004 to 2016 for model calibration and validation and to determine spatiotemporal variability in water levels and PWS at three riverine mangrove sites (downstream, SRS-6; midstream, SRS-5; upstream, SRS-4) along SRE. Model results agree with a distinct PWS pattern along the estuarine salinity gradient where the highest PWS occurs at SRS-6 (mean: 25, range: 22–30 ppt), followed by SRS-5 (17, 14–25 ppt) and SRS-4 (5, 3–13 ppt). A commensurate increase in PWS over a thirteen-year period indicates a long-term reduction in freshwater inflow coupled with sea-level rise (SLR). Increasing freshwater scenario simulation results show a significant reduction (17–27%) in PWS along the estuary in contrast with a high SLR scenario when salinity increases up to 1.1 to 2.5 times that of control values. Model results show that freshwater inflow and SLR are key drivers controlling mangrove wetlands PWS in this karstic coastal region. Given its relatively simple structure, this mass balance-based hydrological model could be used in other environmental settings to evaluate potential habitat and regime shifts due to changes in hydrology and PWS under regional hydrological restoration management.

Florida↗
USGS2004

Tidal oscillation of sediment between a river and a bay: A conceptual model

A conceptual model of fine sediment transport between a river and a bay is proposed, based on observations at two rivers feeding the same bay. The conceptual model consists of river, transitional, and bay regimes. Within the transitional regime, resuspension, advection, and deposition create a mass of sediment that oscillates landward and seaward. While suspended, this sediment mass forms an estuarine turbidity maximum. At slack tides this sediment mass temporarily deposits on the bed, creating landward and seaward deposits. Tidal excursion and slack tide deposition limit the range of the sediment mass. To verify this conceptual model, data from two small tributary rivers of San Pablo Bay are presented. Tidal variability of suspended-sediment concentration markedly differs between the landward and seaward deposits, allowing interpretation of the intratidal movement of the oscillating sediment mass. Application of this model in suitable estuaries will assist in numerical model calibration as well as in data interpretation. A similar model has been applied to some larger-scale European estuaries, which bear a geometric resemblance to the systems analyzed in this study. ?? 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

California↗
USGS2011

Anthropogenic influences on shoreline and nearshore evolution in the San Francisco Bay coastal system

Analysis of four historical bathymetric surveys over a 132-year period has revealed significant changes to the morphology of the San Francisco Bar, an ebb-tidal delta at the mouth of San Francisco Bay estuary. From 1873 to 2005 the San Francisco Bar vertically-eroded an average of 80 cm over a 125 km 2 area, which equates to a total volume loss of 100 ± 52 million m 3 of fine- to coarse-grained sand. Comparison of the surveys indicates the entire ebb-tidal delta contracted radially, with the crest moving landward an average of 1 km. Long-term erosion of the ebb-tidal delta is hypothesized to be due to a reduction in the tidal prism of San Francisco Bay and a decrease in coastal sediment supply, both as a result of anthropogenic activities. Prior research indicates that the tidal prism of the estuary was reduced by 9% from filling, diking, and sedimentation. Compilation of historical records dating back to 1900 reveals that a minimum of 200 million m3 of sediment has been permanently removed from the San Francisco Bay coastal system through dredging, aggregate mining, and borrow pit mining. Of this total, ~54 million m 3 of sand-sized or coarser sediment was removed from central San Francisco Bay. With grain sizes comparable to the ebb-tidal delta, and its direct connection to the bay mouth, removal of sediments from central San Francisco Bay may limit the sand supply to the delta and open coast beaches. SWAN wave modeling illustrates that changes to the morphology of the San Francisco Bar have altered the alongshore wave energy distribution at adjacent Ocean Beach, and thus may be a significant factor in a persistent beach erosion ‘hot spot’ occurring in the area. Shoreline change analyses show that the sandy shoreline in the shadow of the ebb-tidal delta experienced long-term (1850s/1890s to 2002) and short-term (1960s/1980s to 2002) accretion while the adjacent sandy shoreline exposed to open-ocean waves experienced long-term and short-term erosion. Therefore, the recently observed accelerating rates of bay sediment removal, ebb-tidal delta erosion, and open coast beach erosion are all correlated temporally.

California↗
USGS2022

Ocean connectivity drives trophic support for consumers in an intermittently closed coastal lagoon

Estuarine food webs are complex, as marine, freshwater, and terrestrial inputs combine and contribute variable amounts of organic material. Seasonal fluctuations in precipitation amplify the dynamism inherent to estuarine food webs, particularly in lagoonal estuaries, which can be seasonally closed and disconnected from the ocean in low-runoff periods (bar-built lagoons). Despite their abundance along coastlines in Mediterranean climates, the organic matter sources fueling bar-built lagoon food webs are poorly understood, particularly with respect to seasonal hydrologic variability, episodic marine connections, and internal nutrient cycling. In this study, we evaluate the food web of a bar-built lagoon with respect to seasonal differences in lagoon water quality, the sources of organic matter which support consumers, and the trophic ecology of resident fishes. Observed water quality conditions reflected biogeochemical processes associated with salinity-driven stratification and high lagoon residence times and were associated with strong seasonal differences in the contribution of different organic matter sources to lagoon consumers. A variety of organic matter sources supported consumers; marine inputs were important to lagoon food webs in spring when the lagoon was open, while summer food webs were largely driven by phytoplankton which was likely fueled by internal nutrient cycling. Fish diets were largely comprised of crustaceans and fish eggs, with clearly defined trophic niches in spring but high overlap in summer. This study demonstrates that the seasonal changes in bar-built lagoon food webs are largely dependent on ocean connectivity and internal cycling within the lagoon, rather than watershed processes as is typical for many estuaries.

California↗
USGS2025

Shifts in marsh erosion, migration, and wave exposure over nearly two centuries of sea-level rise in the Gulf of Mexico

Coastal wetlands are economically important ecosystems, but are at risk to erosion from waves, storms, and sea level rise. However, marshes can persist under rising sea level through vertical accretion and migration into adjacent higher-elevation habitats. We measured rates of marsh shoreline change and migration and compared the results for historical and modern periods in a largely undeveloped and marine-dominated estuary within the Mississippi-Alabama coast of the Northern Gulf of Mexico. Mean shoreline change rate for the modern (post-1957) period was higher than historical rates (pre-1957) at −1.55 ± 0.11 m yr −1 and -0.84 ± 0.07 m yr −1 , respectively. Shoreline change rates were highest in regions where exposure to wind-driven waves increased due to barrier island migration and land loss. Marsh migration (modern 1.25 ± 0.37 m yr −1 and historical 1.01 ± 0.13 m yr −1 ) occurred at similar rates as shoreline erosion except for the highest erosive shorelines, leading to an overall 15% marsh loss. Upland-to-marsh conversion occurred in forested areas and may have been encouraged by changes in management practices. In the Grand Bay estuary, our data show that marsh migration is not occurring at sufficient rates to compensate for marsh loss, resulting in overall loss in marsh habitat. Overall, migration may allow marsh to persist under rising sea levels but can lead to an overall reduction in forested or freshwater habitats if steep slopes or other barriers prevent their migration.

Alabama, Mississippi↗
USGS2009

Mercury bioaccumulation and risk to three waterbird foraging guilds is influenced by foraging ecology and breeding stage

We evaluated mercury (Hg) in five waterbird species representing three foraging guilds in San Francisco Bay, CA. Fish-eating birds (Forster's and Caspian terns) had the highest Hg concentrations in thier tissues, but concentrations in an invertebrate-foraging shorebird (black-necked stilt) were also elevated. Foraging habitat was important for Hg exposure as illustrated by within-guild differences, where species more associated with marshes and salt ponds had higher concentrations than those more associated with open-bay and tidal mudflats. Importantly, Hg concentrations increased with time spent in the estuary. Surf scoter concentrations tripled over six months, whereas Forster's terns showed an up to 5-fold increase between estuary arrival and breeding. Breeding waterbirds were at elevated risk of Hg-induced reproductive impairment, particularly Forster's terns, in which 48% of breeding birds were at high risk due to their Hg??levels. Our results highlight the importance of habitat and exposure timing, in addition to trophic position, on waterbird Hg bioaccumulation and risk.

Environmental Pollution↗
USGS2007

Spatial and temporal variations in silver contamination and toxicity in San Francisco Bay

Although San Francisco Bay has a "Golden Gate", it may be argued that it is the "Silver Estuary". For at one time the Bay was reported to have the highest levels of silver in its sediments and biota, along with the only accurately measured values of silver in solution, of any estuarine system. Since then others have argued that silver contamination is higher elsewhere (e.g., New York Bight, Florida Bay, Galveston Bay) in a peculiar form of pollution machismo, while silver contamination has measurably declined in sediments, biota, and surface waters of the Bay over the past two to three decades. Documentation of those systemic temporal declines has been possible because of long-term, ongoing monitoring programs, using rigorous trace metal clean sampling and analytical techniques, of the United States Geological Survey and San Francisco Bay Regional Monitoring Program that are summarized in this report. However, recent toxicity studies with macro-invertebrates in the Bay have indicated that silver may still be adversely affecting the health of the estuarine system, and other studies have indicated that silver concentrations in the Bay may be increasing due to new industrial inputs and/or the diagenetic remobilization of silver from historically contaminated sediments being re-exposed to overlying surface waters and benthos. Consequently, the Bay may not be ready to relinquish its title as the "Silver Estuary".

California↗
USGS2005

Thallium isotope composition of the upper continental crust and rivers - An investigation of the continental sources of dissolved marine thallium

The thallium (Tl) concentrations and isotope compositions of various river and estuarine waters, suspended riverine particulates and loess have been determined. These data are used to evaluate whether weathering reactions are associated with significant Tl isotope fractionation and to estimate the average Tl isotope composition of the upper continental crust as well as the mean Tl concentration and isotope composition of river water. Such parameters provide key constraints on the dissolved Tl fluxes to the oceans from rivers and mineral aerosols. The Tl isotope data for loess and suspended riverine detritus are relatively uniform with a mean of ??205Tl = -2.0 ?? 0.3 (??205Tl represents the deviation of the 205Tl/203Tl isotope ratio of a sample from NIST SRM 997 Tl in parts per 104). For waters from four major and eight smaller rivers, the majority were found to have Tl concentrations between 1 and 7 ng/kg. Most have Tl isotope compositions very similar (within ??1.5 ??205Tl) to that deduced for the upper continental crust, which indicates that no significant Tl isotope fractionation occurs during weathering. Based on these results, it is estimated that rivers have a mean natural Tl concentration and isotope composition of 6 ?? 4 ng/kg and ??205Tl = -2.5 ?? 1.0, respectively. In the Amazon estuary, both additions and losses of Tl were observed, and these correlate with variations in Fe and Mn contents. The changes in Tl concentrations have much lower amplitudes, however, and are not associated with significant Tl isotope effects. In the Kalix estuary, the Tl concentrations and isotope compositions can be explained by two-component mixing between river water and a high-salinity end member that is enriched in Tl relative to seawater. These results indicate that Tl can display variable behavior in estuarine systems but large additions and losses of Tl were not observed in the present study. Copyright ?? 2005 Elsevier Ltd.

Geochimica et Cosmochimica Acta↗
USGS2020

Social attraction used to establish Caspian tern nesting colonies in San Francisco Bay

Conservation of colonial waterbird breeding populations often includes restoring historic nesting habitat or establishing new nesting habitat in protected areas. However, colonization of new or restored nesting habitat may be hindered by the lack of social cues from nesting conspecifics to attract prospecting birds. Social attraction, whereby decoys and colony sound recordings are used to mimic active nesting colonies, has been used successfully to establish waterbird nesting colonies throughout the world. We constructed islands, modified the substrate so that it was attractive to nesting Caspian terns (Hydroprogne caspia), and then used social attraction to establish nesting colonies within two managed ponds in San Francisco Bay, California where Caspian terns had not previously nested. During the 2015–2017 breeding seasons, we deployed decoys of adult Caspian terns, broadcasted colony sound recordings, and monitored Caspian tern response. Caspian terns formed nesting colonies within weeks of social attraction deployment at each of the two ponds in 2015, and the size of these colonies increased in each subsequent year of the study. In 2017, the final year of the study, we estimated a minimum of 501 breeding pairs between the two colonies, making them two of the three largest Caspian tern colonies in the San Francisco Bay estuary. In total, these two colonies produced 1343 nests and 531 fledglings over the three-year study period. Nest densities were low (mean: 0.29 nests/m2 of active colony area) compared to other studies, and greater than 80% of the modified island habitat remained unused by nesting Caspian terns in 2017, suggesting that there is additional space for future colony growth. The successful establishment of two of the largest Caspian tern nesting colonies in the San Francisco Bay estuary in just three years demonstrates the potential of using island construction and habitat modifications, combined with social attraction measures to establish waterbird nesting colonies.

California↗
USGS2021

Lateral shoreline erosion and shore-proximal sediment deposition on a coastal marsh from seasonal, storm and decadal measurements

The persistence of coastal marsh is dependent on its ability to maintain elevation relative to sea level, particularly for marshes experiencing high rates of shoreline erosion due to wave-attack, storms, and sea level rise. Sediments eroded at the marsh edge are either delivered onto the marsh platform or into the estuary, the latter resulting in a net loss of marsh sediments and soil carbon. Knowledge on the timing, pattern, and quantity of sediment deposition versus shoreline erosion along the marsh-estuary interface is critical for evaluating the overall health and vulnerability of coastal marshes to future scenarios of sea level rise and for estimating sediment budgets . Here we examined marsh shoreline erosion and sediment deposition for marsh sites experiencing a range of shoreline erosion rates and different levels of wind-wave exposure within the Grand Bay National Estuarine Research Reserve and Wildlife Refuge in Mississippi. We developed a method for calculating an erosion-deposition sediment budget using marsh elevation profiles, shoreline erosion rate, and sediment deposition measurements. Sediment budgets were calculated at four sites with varying shoreline erosion rates. Much of the sediment eroded at the marsh edge can be accounted for as marsh platform deposition, except at the most erosive site, suggesting a possible erosion threshold where eroded sediment mass is greater than platform deposition. Consistent with other studies of marsh creeks, sediment delivery to the marsh platform appears to be largely driven by wave climate. These data suggest that for erosive bay-estuarine shorelines, sediment delivered into the marsh is largely concentrated near the marsh shoreline, although shoreline erosion does not always result in a net loss of sediments from the marsh system in either decadal or annual assessments.

Mississippi↗
USGS2015

Estimation of historic flows and sediment loads to San Francisco Bay,1849–2011

River flow and sediment transport in estuaries influence morphological development over decadal and century time scales, but hydrological and sedimentological records are typically too short to adequately characterize long-term trends. In this study, we recover archival records and apply a rating curve approach to develop the first instrumental estimates of daily delta inflow and sediment loads to San Francisco Bay (1849–1929). The total sediment load is constrained using sedimentation/erosion estimated from bathymetric survey data to produce continuous daily sediment transport estimates from 1849 to 1955, the time period prior to sediment load measurements. We estimate that ∼55% (45–75%) of the ∼1500 ± 400 million tons (Mt) of sediment delivered to the estuary between 1849 and 2011 was the result of anthropogenic alteration in the watershed that increased sediment supply. Also, the seasonal timing of sediment flux events has shifted because significant spring-melt floods have decreased, causing estimated springtime transport (April 1st to June 30th) to decrease from ∼25% to ∼15% of the annual total. By contrast, wintertime sediment loads (December 1st to March 31st) have increased from ∼70% to ∼80%. A ∼35% reduction of annual flow since the 19th century along with decreased sediment supply has resulted in a ∼50% reduction in annual sediment delivery. The methods developed in this study can be applied to other systems for which unanalyzed historic data exist.

California↗
USGS2005

Simulating the evolution of coastal morphology and stratigraphy with a new morphological-behaviour model (GEOMBEST)

A new morphological-behaviour model is used to simulate evolution of coastal morphology associated with cross-shore translations of the shoreface, barrier, and estuary. The model encapsulates qualitative principles drawn from established geological concepts that are parameterized to provide quantitative predictions of morphological change on geological time scales (order 10 3 years), as well as shorter time scales applicable for long-term coastal management (order 101 to 102 years). Changes in sea level, and sediment volume within the shoreface, barrier, and estuary, drive the model behaviour. Further parameters, defining substrate erodibility, sediment composition, and time-dependent shoreface response, constrain the evolution of the shoreface towards an equilibrium profile. Results from numerical experiments are presented for the low-gradient autochthonous setting of North Carolina and the steep allochthonous setting of the Washington shelf. Simulations in the Currituck region of North Carolina examined the influence of sediment supply, substrate composition, and substrate erodibility on barrier transgression. Results demonstrate that the presence of a lithified substrate reduces the rate of barrier transgression compared to scenarios where an erodible, sand-rich substrate exists. Simulations of the Washington coast, 20 km north of the Columbia River, confirmed that the model can reproduce complex stratigraphy involving regressive and transgressive phases of coastal evolution. Results suggest that the first major addition of sediment to the shelf occurred around 12 900 years ago and resulted from the rapid addition of sediment volume from the Columbia River attributed to the Missoula floods. This was followed by a period where little or no sediment was added (12 400-9100 BP) and a third period when most sediment was added to the shelf (9100 BP to present) from the Columbia River. Comparing results from each setting demonstrates an indirect control that substrate slope has on shoreface transgression rates. Shoreface transgression is shown to be sensitive to the rate of estuarine sedimentation, with the sensitivity increasing as substrate slope decreases.

North Carolina↗
USGS2007

Forcing of large-scale cycles of coastal change at the entrance to Willapa Bay, Washington

Anomalous morphological features within large estuaries may be: (1) recorders of external forces that periodically overwhelm the normal morphodynamic responses to estuarine energy fluxes, and (2) possible predictors of cycles of future coastal change. At the entrance to Willapa Bay, Washington, chronic beach erosion and frequent coastal flooding are related to the historical northward channel migration that destroyed the protective sand spits of Cape Shoalwater. Northward channel migration since the late 1800s conforms to the long-term net sediment transport direction. What requires explanation is periodic southward relocation of the trunk channel by as much as 5 km, and attendant construction of moderately large sand spits on the north side of the bay such as Kindred Island, Tokeland Peninsula, and Cape Shoalwater. Both autocyclic and allocyclic processes may have been responsible for trunk channel realignment and associated spit deposition. Channel recycling may occur when the main channel becomes overextended to the north and the tidal flow is inefficient because of its decreased gradient and increased susceptibility to shoaling by the growth and migration of tidal sand ridges. Under those conditions trunk channel relocation would be facilitated by increased wave heights and water levels of El Niño winter storms. However, co-seismic subsidence is the most likely mechanism for abruptly increasing sand supply and longshore transport that would favor discrete periods of channel relocation and spit deposition. Unless external forcing changes sand supply and predominant sediment transport directions in the future, the relative rise in sea level, frequent winter storms, and local deficit in the sand budget assure that beach erosion will continue at the mouth of this large estuary.

Washington↗