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USGS2018

Near-surface environmentally forced changes in the Ross Ice Shelf observed with ambient seismic noise

Continuous seismic observations across the Ross Ice Shelf reveal ubiquitous ambient res- onances at frequencies >5 Hz. These firn-trapped surface wave signals arise through wind and snow bedform interactions coupled with very low velocity structures. Progressive and long-term spectral changes are associated with surface snow redistribution by wind and with a January 2016 regional melt event. Modeling demonstrates high spectral sen- sitivity to near-surface (top several m) elastic parameters. We propose that spectral peak changes arise from surface snow redistribution in wind events, and to velocity drops re- flecting snow lattice weakening near 0◦C for the melt event. Percolation-related refrozen layers and layer thinning may also contribute to long-term spectral changes after the melt event. Single-station observations are inverted for elastic structure for multiple stations across the ice shelf. High-frequency ambient noise seismology presents opportunities for continuous assessment of near surface ice shelf or other firn environments.

Geophysical Research Letters↗

USGS2014

Pesticide Toxicity Index: a tool for assessing potential toxicity of pesticide mixtures to freshwater aquatic organisms

Pesticide mixtures are common in streams with agricultural or urban influence in the watershed. The Pesticide Toxicity Index (PTI) is a screening tool to assess potential aquatic toxicity of complex pesticide mixtures by combining measures of pesticide exposure and acute toxicity in an additive toxic-unit model. The PTI is determined separately for fish, cladocerans, and benthic invertebrates. This study expands the number of pesticides and degradates included in previous editions of the PTI from 124 to 492 pesticides and degradates, and includes two types of PTI for use in different applications, depending on study objectives. The Median-PTI was calculated from median toxicity values for individual pesticides, so is robust to outliers and is appropriate for comparing relative potential toxicity among samples, sites, or pesticides. The Sensitive-PTI uses the 5th percentile of available toxicity values, so is a more sensitive screening-level indicator of potential toxicity. PTI predictions of toxicity in environmental samples were tested using data aggregated from published field studies that measured pesticide concentrations and toxicity to Ceriodaphnia dubia in ambient stream water. C. dubia survival was reduced to ≤ 50% of controls in 44% of samples with Median-PTI values of 0.1–1, and to 0% in 96% of samples with Median-PTI values > 1. The PTI is a relative, but quantitative, indicator of potential toxicity that can be used to evaluate relationships between pesticide exposure and biological condition.

Science of the Total Environment↗

USGS1997

Effect of tributary inflows on the distribution of trace metals in fine- grained bed sediments and benthic insects of the Clark Fork River, Montana

The effect of tributary inflows on metal concentrations in <63-μm sediments and benthic insects was examined on two scales (380 km and <2 km) in a river impacted by mining. A dilution−mixing model effectively described large-scale dispersion of Cd, Cu, and Pb in the sediments of the river. Input of metal from contaminated flood plains may introduce additional contamination in the middle reaches of the river. Intensive sampling around the confluences of two tributaries showed that there were significant, localized decreases in some metal concentrations immediately downstream of the inflows. Sediment metal concentrations 1 km below the inflows returned to values within the range predicted by the dilution−mixing model. Metal concentrations in benthic insects exhibited spatial patterns similar to those of the sediments, indicating that biological exposures to metals are at least partially dependent on the physical processes controlling the dispersion of sediment-bound metals. Tributary inflows introduce variability in metal contamination on different spatial scales that must be considered when assessing ecological risks in contaminated rivers. In addition to large-scale dilution of contaminants, smaller areas of reduced metal exposure occur near tributary inflows. These may shelter metal-sensitive taxa from severe metal contamination in the mainstem.

Environmental Science & Technology↗

USGS2016

Quasi-extinction risk and population targets for the Eastern, migratory population of monarch butterflies ( Danaus plexippus )

The Eastern, migratory population of monarch butterflies ( Danaus plexippus) , an iconic North American insect, has declined by ~80% over the last decade. The monarch’s multi-generational migration between overwintering grounds in central Mexico and the summer breeding grounds in the northern U.S. and southern Canada is celebrated in all three countries and creates shared management responsibilities across North America. Here we present a novel Bayesian multivariate auto-regressive state-space model to assess quasi-extinction risk and aid in the establishment of a target population size for monarch conservation planning. We find that, given a range of plausible quasi-extinction thresholds, the population has a substantial probability of quasi-extinction, from 11–57% over 20 years, although uncertainty in these estimates is large. Exceptionally high population stochasticity, declining numbers, and a small current population size act in concert to drive this risk. An approximately 5-fold increase of the monarch population size (relative to the winter of 2014–15) is necessary to halve the current risk of quasi-extinction across all thresholds considered. Conserving the monarch migration thus requires active management to reverse population declines, and the establishment of an ambitious target population size goal to buffer against future environmentally driven variability.

Scientific Reports↗

USGS2004

Development of a passive, in situ, integrative sampler for hydrophilic organic contaminants in aquatic environments

Increasingly it is being realized that a holistic hazard assessment of complex environmental contaminant mixtures requires data on the concentrations of hydrophilic organic contaminants including new generation pesticides, pharmaceuticals, personal care products, and many chemicals associated with household, industrial, and agricultural wastes. To address this issue, we developed a passive in situ sampling device (the polar organic chemical integrative sampler [POCIS]) that integratively concentrates trace levels of complex mixtures of hydrophilic environmental contaminants, enables the determination of their time-weighted average water concentrations, and provides a method of estimating the potential exposure of aquatic organisms to the complex mixture of waterborne contaminants. Using a prototype sampler, linear uptake of selected herbicides and pharmaceuticals with log K ow S < 4.0 was observed for up to 56 d. Estimation of the ambient water concentrations of chemicals of interest is achieved by using appropriate uptake models and determination of POCIS sampling rates for appropriate exposure conditions. Use of POCIS in field validation studies targeting the herbicide diuron in the United Kingdom resulted in the detection of the chemical at estimated concentrations of 190 to 600 ng/L. These values are in agreement with reported levels found in traditional grab samples taken concurrently.

Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry↗

USGS2014

Spatiotemporal variations in estrogenicity, hormones, and endocrine-disrupting compounds in influents and effluents of selected wastewater-treatment plants and receiving streams in New York, 2008-09

Endocrine-disrupting compounds (EDCs) in wastewater effluents have been linked to changes in sex ratios, intersex (in males), behavioral modifications, and developmental abnormalities in aquatic organisms. Yet efforts to identify and regulate specific EDCs in complex mixtures are problematic because little is known about the estrogen activity (estrogenicity) levels of many common and emerging contaminants. The potential effects of EDCs on the water quality and health of biota in streams of the New York City water supply is especially worrisome because more than 150 wastewater-treatment plants (WWTPs) are permitted to discharge effluents into surface waters and groundwaters of watersheds that provide potable water to more than 9 million people. In 2008, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), the New York State Department of Environmental Conservation (NYSDEC), New York State Department of Health (NYSDOH), and New York City Department of Environmental Protection (NYCDEP) began a pilot study to increase the understanding of estrogenicity and EDCs in effluents and receiving streams mainly in southeastern New York. The primary goals of this study were to document and assess the spatial and temporal variability of estrogenicity levels; the effectiveness of various treatment-plant types to remove estrogenicity; the concentrations of hormones, EDCs, and pharmaceuticals, personal care products (PPCPs); and the relations between estrogenicity and concentrations of hormones, EDCs, and PPCPs. The levels of estrogenicity and selected hormones, non-hormone EDCs, and PPCPs were characterized in samples collected seasonally in effluents from 7 WWTPs, once or twice in effluents from 34 WWTPs, and once in influents to 6 WWTPs. Estrogenicity was quantified, as estradiol equivalents, using both the biological e-screen assay and a chemical model. Results generally show that (1) estrogenicity levels in effluents varied spatially and seasonally, (2) a wide range of known and unknown EDCs were present in both WWTP effluents and receiving streams, (3) some effluents may be important sources of estrogenicity in weakly diluted streams, (4) measured levels of biological estrogenicity were often higher than estimated levels of chemical estrogenicity, and (5) the type of treatment had a large effect on the removal efficacy, and consequently, the estrogenicity levels observed in treated effluents.

New York↗

USGS2023

Juxtaposition of intensive agriculture, vulnerable aquifers, and mixed chemical/microbial exposures in private-well tapwater in northeast Iowa

In the United States and globally, contaminant exposure in unregulated private-well point-of-use tapwater (TW) is a recognized public-health data gap and an obstacle to both risk-management and homeowner decision making. To help address the lack of data on broad contaminant exposures in private-well TW from hydrologically-vulnerable (alluvial, karst) aquifers in agriculturally-intensive landscapes, samples were collected in 2018–2019 from 47 northeast Iowa farms and analyzed for 35 inorganics, 437 unique organics, 5 in vitro bioassays, and 11 microbial assays. Twenty-six inorganics and 51 organics, dominated by pesticides and related transformation products (35 herbicide-, 5 insecticide-, and 2 fungicide-related), were observed in TW. Heterotrophic bacteria detections were near ubiquitous (94 % of the samples), with detection of total coliform bacteria in 28 % of the samples and growth on at least one putative-pathogen selective media across all TW samples. Health-based hazard index screening levels were exceeded frequently in private-well TW and attributed primarily to inorganics (nitrate, uranium). Results support incorporation of residential treatment systems to protect against contaminant exposure and the need for increased monitoring of rural private-well homes. Continued assessment of unmonitored and unregulated private-supply TW is needed to model contaminant exposures and human-health risks.

Iowa↗

USGS2015

Simulation of the effects of different inflows on hydrologic conditions in Lake Houston with a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model, Houston, Texas, 2009–10

Lake Houston, an important water resource for the Houston, Texas, area, receives inflows from seven major tributaries that compose the San Jacinto River Basin upstream from the reservoir. The effects of different inflows from the watersheds drained by these tributaries on the residence time of water in Lake Houston and closely associated physical and chemical properties including lake elevation, salinity, and water temperature are not well known. Accordingly, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the City of Houston, developed a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model of Lake Houston as a tool for evaluating the effects of different inflows on residence time of water in the lake and associated physical and chemical properties. The Environmental Fluid Dynamics Code (EFDC), a grid-based, surface-water modeling package for simulating three-dimensional circulation, mass transport, sediments, and biogeochemical processes, was used to develop the model of Lake Houston. The Lake Houston EFDC model was developed and calibrated by using 2009 data and verified by using 2010 data. Three statistics (mean error, root mean square error, and the Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient) were used to evaluate how well the Lake Houston EFDC model simulated lake elevation, salinity, and water temperature. The residence time of water in reservoirs is associated with various physical and chemical properties (including lake elevation, salinity, and water temperature). Simulated and measured lake-elevation values were compared at USGS reservoir station 08072000 Lake Houston near Sheldon, Tex. The accuracy of simulated salinity and water temperature values was assessed by using the salinity (computed from measured specific conductance) and water temperature at two USGS monitoring stations: 295826095082200 Lake Houston south Union Pacific Railroad Bridge near Houston, Tex., and 295554095093401 Lake Houston at mouth of Jack’s Ditch near Houston, Tex. Specific conductance and water temperature were measured at as many as four different depths at each of the two monitoring stations during 2009 and then used for assessing the accuracy of simulated values of salinity and water temperature during 2010. The performance evaluation statistics indicate that the model performed satisfactorily. The calibrated model was used to simulate two possible inflow scenarios to evaluate the changes in the residence time of water in Lake Houston. The two scenarios tested were an increased inflow of approximately 300 cubic feet per second for 1 month (May 2010) from two watersheds: the West Fork San Jacinto River and Luce Bayou. These scenarios were chosen to mimic the effects of possible small releases or diversions of water from outside the San Jacinto River Basin into the basin (or directly into the lake) on the residence time of water in Lake Houston. During the time of increased inflow for the two scenarios tested, maximum residence time decreased slightly from approximately 106 to 97 days.

Texas↗

USGS2025

Idiosyncratic spatial scaling of biodiversity–disease relationships

High host biodiversity is hypothesized to dilute the risk of vector-borne diseases if many host species are ‘dead ends' that cannot effectively transmit the disease and low-diversity areas tend to be dominated by competent host species. However, many studies on biodiversity–disease relationships characterize host biodiversity at single, local spatial scales, which complicates efforts to forecast disease risk if associations between host biodiversity and disease change with spatial scale. Here, our objective is to evaluate the spatial scaling of relationships between host biodiversity and Borrelia (the bacterial taxon which causes Lyme disease) infection prevalence in small mammals. We compared the associations between infection prevalence and small mammal host diversity for local communities (individual plots) and metacommunities (multiple plots aggregated within a landscape) sampled by the National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON), an emerging continental-scale environmental monitoring program with a hierarchical sampling design. We applied a multispecies, spatially-stratified capture–recapture model to a trapping dataset to estimate five small mammal biodiversity metrics, which we used to predict infection status for a subset of trapped individuals. We found that relationships between Borrelia infection prevalence and biodiversity did indeed vary when biodiversity was quantified at different spatial scales but that these scaling behaviors were idiosyncratic among the five biodiversity metrics. For example, species richness of local communities showed a negative (dilution) effect on infection prevalence, while species richness of the small mammal metacommunity showed a positive (amplification) effect on infection prevalence. Our modeling approach can inform future analyses as data from similar monitoring programs accumulate and become increasingly available through time. Our results indicate that a focus on single spatial scales when assessing the influence of biodiversity on disease risk provides an incomplete picture of the complexity of disease dynamics in ecosystems.

Ecography↗

USGS2015

Social Values for Ecosystem Services, version 3.0 (SolVES 3.0): documentation and user manual

The geographic information system (GIS) tool, S ocial V alues for E cosystem S ervices (SolVES), was developed to incorporate quantified and spatially explicit measures of social values into ecosystem service assessments. SolVES 3.0 continues to extend the functionality of SolVES, which was designed to assess, map, and quantify the social values of ecosystem services. Social values—the perceived, nonmarket values the public ascribes to ecosystem services, particularly cultural services, such as aesthetics and recreation—can be evaluated for various stakeholder groups. These groups are distinguishable by their attitudes and preferences regarding public uses, such as motorized recreation and logging. As with previous versions, SolVES 3.0 derives a quantitative 10-point, social-values metric—the value index—from a combination of spatial and nonspatial responses to public value and preference surveys. The tool also calculates metrics characterizing the underlying environment, such as average distance to water and dominant landcover. SolVES 3.0 is integrated with Maxent maximum entropy modeling software to generate more complete social-value maps and offer robust statistical models describing the relationship between the value index and explanatory environmental variables. A model’s goodness of fit to a primary study area and its potential performance in transferring social values to similar areas using value-transfer methodology can be evaluated. SolVES 3.0 provides an improved public-domain tool for decision makers and researchers to evaluate the social values of ecosystem services and to facilitate discussions among diverse stakeholders regarding the tradeoffs among ecosystem services in a variety of physical and social contexts ranging from forest and rangeland to coastal and marine.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2011

Assessing first-order emulator inference for physical parameters in nonlinear mechanistic models

We present an approach for estimating physical parameters in nonlinear models that relies on an approximation to the mechanistic model itself for computational efficiency. The proposed methodology is validated and applied in two different modeling scenarios: (a) Simulation and (b) lower trophic level ocean ecosystem model. The approach we develop relies on the ability to predict right singular vectors (resulting from a decomposition of computer model experimental output) based on the computer model input and an experimental set of parameters. Critically, we model the right singular vectors in terms of the model parameters via a nonlinear statistical model. Specifically, we focus our attention on first-order models of these right singular vectors rather than the second-order (covariance) structure.

Journal of Agricultural, Biological, and Environme↗

USGS2024

Intrinsic and extrinsic regulation of water clarity in a large, floodplain-river ecosystem

Ecosystem processes in rivers are thought to be controlled more by extrinsic than intrinsic factors, that is, the result of processes that occur upstream or within their watersheds. However, large floodplain rivers have a diverse assemblage of aquatic areas spanning gradients of connectivity with the main channel and internal controls may at times regulate long-term dynamics. When and where internal controls are important has not been widely explored in rivers. The Upper Mississippi River System (UMRS) provides a unique opportunity to assess regulation of ecosystem processes in a large floodplain river as water clarity has increased in several reaches over the last two decades. To better understand when and where intrinsic variables (for example , aquatic vegetation and common carp) and extrinsic variables (for example , upstream main channel total suspended solids (TSS) concentration and discharge) regulate water clarity, we describe 24-year trends of TSS in six study reaches of the UMRS. We evaluated the degree to which trends were shared across aquatic areas within each study reach and identified potential drivers of long-term TSS dynamics. Results varied across and within UMRS reaches, but common carp abundance was the strongest predictor in nearly all study reaches. Several models indicated associations with both intrinsic and extrinsic factors, and the marginal model r 2 values (0.26–0.61) suggest that additional environmental factors may have influenced water clarity. Knowledge of the degree to which intrinsic and extrinsic processes regulate water clarity is important for understanding and managing large, floodplain rivers worldwide.

Ecosystems↗

USGS2024

Peering into the eye of the sea lamprey: What can stable isotopes in lamprey eye lenses reveal about their life history?

The Atlantic sea lamprey ( Petromyzon marinus ) is an anadromous species which is a detritivore for years in freshwater, before metamorphosing into a juvenile and feeding parasitically at sea. However, their migratory patterns and marine ecology are poorly characterized. In other fishes, chemical analysis of calcified structures has aided in understanding their life history, but sea lamprey lacks these structures. Recent work using eye lenses suggests an alternate approach. Lenses are stable protein structures that accrue layers on their outer edge as they grow. We used stable isotope ratios (δ x Y) of hydrogen, carbon, nitrogen, and oxygen to explore lens layers and compare lenses to muscle. Returning adults were collected in May 2021 from the Penobscot (Maine), Connecticut (Massachusetts), and Susquehanna (Maryland) rivers. Lenses were dissected into three layers (surface, middle, core) and analyzed separately to investigate changes over time. We used mixed-effects models to assess differences in isotope ratios among lens layers. Isotope ratios changed from the core to the surface layer and δ 13 C were suggestive of a change from terrestrial to marine sources and δ 15 N showed an increase in trophic level as individuals grew, as would be expected when transitioning from detrital sources to marine prey. However, the isotope ratios of the outer lens layer generally did not correspond with the muscle, perhaps indicating a different temporal interval. These data suggest temporal accretion of lens proteins provide a record to explore sea lamprey ecology.

Maine↗

USGS2014

Evaluating the efficiency of environmental monitoring programs

Statistical uncertainty analyses can be used to improve the efficiency of environmental monitoring, allowing sampling designs to maximize information gained relative to resources required for data collection and analysis. In this paper, we illustrate four methods of data analysis appropriate to four types of environmental monitoring designs. To analyze a long-term record from a single site, we applied a general linear model to weekly stream chemistry data at Biscuit Brook, NY, to simulate the effects of reducing sampling effort and to evaluate statistical confidence in the detection of change over time. To illustrate a detectable difference analysis, we analyzed a one-time survey of mercury concentrations in loon tissues in lakes in the Adirondack Park, NY, demonstrating the effects of sampling intensity on statistical power and the selection of a resampling interval. To illustrate a bootstrapping method, we analyzed the plot-level sampling intensity of forest inventory at the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest, NH, to quantify the sampling regime needed to achieve a desired confidence interval. Finally, to analyze time-series data from multiple sites, we assessed the number of lakes and the number of samples per year needed to monitor change over time in Adirondack lake chemistry using a repeated-measures mixed-effects model. Evaluations of time series and synoptic long-term monitoring data can help determine whether sampling should be re-allocated in space or time to optimize the use of financial and human resources.

Ecological Indicators↗

USGS2009

Sand resources, regional geology, and coastal processes of the Chandeleur Islands Coastal System: An evaluation of the Breton National Wildlife Refuge

Breton National Wildlife Refuge, the Chandeleur Islands chain in Louisiana, provides habitat and nesting areas for wildlife and is an initial barrier protecting New Orleans from storms. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in partnership with the University of New Orleans Pontchartrain Institute for Environmental Sciences undertook an intensive study that included (1) an analysis of island change based on historical maps and remotely sensed shoreline and topographic data; (2) a series of lidar surveys at 3- to 4-month intervals after Hurricane Katrina to determine barrier island recovery potential; (3) a discussion of sea level rise and effects on the islands; (4) an analysis of sea floor evolution and sediment dynamics in the refuge over the past 150 years; (5) an assessment of the local sediment transport and sediment resource availability based on the bathymetric and subbottom data; (6) a carefully selected core collection effort to groundtruth the geophysical data and more fully characterize the sediments composing the islands and surrounds; (7) an additional survey of the St. Bernard Shoals to assess their potential as a sand resource; and (8) a modeling study to numerically simulate the potential response of the islands to the low-intensity, intermediate, and extreme events likely to affect the refuge over the next 50 years. Results indicate that the islands have become fragmented and greatly diminished in subaerial extent over time: the southern islands retreating landward as they reorganize into subaerial features, the northern islands remaining in place. Breton Island, because maintenance of the Mississippi River-Gulf Outlet (MRGO) outer bar channel requires dredging, is deprived of sand sufficient to sustain itself. Regional sediment transport trends indicate that large storms are extremely effective in transporting sand and controlling the shoreline development and barrier island geometry. Sand is transported north and south from a divergent zone near Monkey Bayou at the southern end of the Chandeleur Islands. Numerical simulation of waves and sediment transport supports the geophysical results and indicates that vast areas of the lower shoreface are affected and are undergoing erosion during storm events, that there is little or no fair weather mechanism to rework material into the littoral system, and that as a result, there is a net loss of sediment from the system. Lidar surveys revealed that the island chain immediately after Hurricane Katrina lost about 84 percent of its area and about 92 percent of its prestorm volume. Marsh platforms that supported the islands’ sand prior to the storm were reduced in width by more than one-half. Repeated lidar surveys document that in places the shoreline has retreated about 100 m under the relatively low-energy waves since Hurricanes Katrina and Rita; however, this retreat is nonuniform. Recent high-resolution geophysical surveys of the sea floor and subsurface within 5–6 km of the Chandeleur Islands during 2006 and 2007 show that, in addition to the sand that is rebuilding portions of the island chain, a large volume of sand is contained in Hewes Point, in an extensive subtidal spit platform that has formed at the northern end of the Chandeleur Islands. Hewes Point appears to be the depositional terminus of the alongshore transport system. In the southern Chandeleurs, sand is being deposited in a broad tabular deposit near Breton Island called the southern offshore sand sheet. These two depocenters account for approximately 70 percent of the estimated sediment volume located in potential borrow sites. An additional large potential source of sand for restoration lies in the St. Bernard Shoals, which are estimated to contain approximately 200 × 10 6 m 3 of sand. Successful restoration planning for the Breton National Wildlife Refuge should mimic the natural processes of early stages of barrier island evolution including lateral transport to the flanks of the island chain from a centralized sand source that will ultimately enhance the ability of the islands to naturally build backbarrier marsh, dunes, and a continuous sandy shoreline. Barrier island sediment nourishment should be executed with the understanding that gulf shoreline erosion is inevitable but that island area can be maintained and enhanced during retreat (thus significantly prolonging the life of the island chain) with strategic sand placement.

Louisiana↗

USGS2012

Modeling of land use and reservoir effects on nonpoint source pollution in a highly agricultural basin

Nonpoint source (NPS) pollution is tightly linked to land use activities that determine the sources and magnitudes of pollutant loadings to stream water. The pollutant loads may also be alleviated within reservoirs because of the physical interception resulting from changed hydrological regimes and other biochemical processes. It is important but challenging to assess the NPS pollution processes with human effects due to the measurement limitations. The objective of this study is to evaluate the effects of human activities such as land uses and reservoir operation on the hydrological and NPS pollution processes in a highly agricultural area-the Iowa River Basin-using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). The evaluation of model performance at multiple sites reveals that SWAT can consistently simulate the daily streamflow, and monthly/annual sediment and nutrient loads (nitrate nitrogen and mineral phosphorus) in the basin. We also used the calibrated model to estimate the trap efficiencies of sediment (~78%) and nutrients (~30%) in the Coralville Reservoir within the basin. These non-negligible effects emphasize the significance of incorporating the sediment and nutrient removal mechanisms into watershed system studies. The spatial quantification of the critical NPS pollution loads can help identify hot-spot areas that are likely locations for the best management practices.

Iowa↗

USGS2025

Characterizing projected future droughts for south Florida (2056–2095)

Balance anomalies, defined as the deviation of monthly precipitation minus reference evapotranspiration from their long-term monthly historical means (1950–2005), were computed for regions in south Florida and temporally averaged over 6- and 12-month timescales to identify meteorological drought events during a historical (1950–2005) and future (2056–2095) period of interest for 40 CMIP5 general circulation models (GCM) and scenario combinations downscaled by the Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs method. Under the assumption of stomatal resistance ( r s ) remaining constant at the historical standard value (70 s/m), 81% of models project declines in monthly balance anomalies in the future compared to historical, with multimodel ensemble mean declines of 3.7 in/year under RCP4.5 and 8.7 in/year under RCP8.5. Drought events were identified from the downscaled model projections, their characteristics (duration and intensity) extracted, and their historical joint distributions validated against those derived from historical observational datasets. The future joint distributions of drought characteristics were compared across models using hierarchical clustering. A climate model summary plot and table were developed based on these methods to guide climate model selection for hydrologic modeling in support of water-supply planning at the South Florida Water Management District (SFWMD). The model summary plot for the entire SFWMD shows that 35% of GCM/training-dataset combinations have historical joint distributions of drought characteristics that are significantly different at the 10% level from those derived from observational gridded data, whereas 39% of GCM/scenario/training-dataset combinations have future joint distributions that are significantly different from historical. A sensitivity analysis was performed assuming r s increasing with increasing CO 2 .

Florida↗

USGS2010

Distribution patterns of wintering sea ducks in relation to the North Atlantic Oscillation and local environmental characteristics

Twelve species of North American sea ducks (Tribe Mergini) winter off the eastern coast of the United States and Canada. Yet, despite their seasonal proximity to urbanized areas in this region, there is limited information on patterns of wintering sea duck habitat use. It is difficult to gather information on sea ducks because of the relative inaccessibility of their offshore locations, their high degree of mobility, and their aggregated distributions. To characterize environmental conditions that affect wintering distributions, as well as their geographic ranges, we analyzed count data on five species of sea ducks (black scoters Melanitta nigra americana, surf scoters M. perspicillata, white-winged scoters M. fusca, common eiders Somateria mollissima, and long-tailed ducks Clangula hyemalis) that were collected during the Atlantic Flyway Sea Duck Survey for ten years starting in the early 1990s. We modeled count data for each species within ten-nautical-mile linear survey segments using a zero-inflated negative binomial model that included four local-scale habitat covariates (sea surface temperature, mean bottom depth, maximum bottom slope, and a variable to indicate if the segment was in a bay or not), one broad-scale covariate (the North Atlantic Oscillation), and a temporal correlation component. Our results indicate that species distributions have strong latitudinal gradients and consistency in local habitat use. The North Atlantic Oscillation was the only environmental covariate that had a significant (but variable) effect on the expected count for all five species, suggesting that broad-scale climatic conditions may be directly or indirectly important to the distributions of wintering sea ducks. Our results provide critical information on species-habitat associations, elucidate the complicated relationship between the North Atlantic Oscillation, sea surface temperature, and local sea duck abundances, and should be useful in assessing the impacts of climate change on seabirds.

Oecologia↗