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Search indexed USGS publications on groundwater, aquifers, geologic maps, mineral resources and earthquakes. Explore source records by subject and place.

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At least 991 records · Page 55Linked to original sources
USGS2006

M ≥ 7.0 earthquake recurrence on the San Andreas fault from a stress renewal model

Forecasting M ≥ 7.0 San Andreas fault earthquakes requires an assessment of their expected frequency. I used a three-dimensional finite element model of California to calculate volumetric static stress drops from scenario M ≥ 7.0 earthquakes on three San Andreas fault sections. The ratio of stress drop to tectonic stressing rate derived from geodetic displacements yielded recovery times at points throughout the model volume. Under a renewal model, stress recovery times on ruptured fault planes can be a proxy for earthquake recurrence. I show curves of magnitude versus stress recovery time for three San Andreas fault sections. When stress recovery times were converted to expected M ≥ 7.0 earthquake frequencies, they fit Gutenberg-Richter relationships well matched to observed regional rates of M ≤ 6.0 earthquakes. Thus a stress-balanced model permits large earthquake Gutenberg-Richter behavior on an individual fault segment, though it does not require it. Modeled slip magnitudes and their expected frequencies were consistent with those observed at the Wrightwood paleoseismic site if strict time predictability does not apply to the San Andreas fault.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗
USGS2022

On the potential for remote observations of coastal morphodynamics from surf-cameras

Recreational surf-cameras (surfcams) are ubiquitous along many coastlines, and yet are a largely untapped source of coastal morphodynamic observations. Surfcams offer broad spatial coverage and flexibility in data collection, but a method to remotely acquire ground control points (GCPs) and initial camera parameter approximations is necessary to better leverage this existing infrastructure to make quantitative measurements. This study examines the efficacy of remotely monitoring coastal morphodynamics from surfcams at two sites on the Atlantic coast of Florida, U.S.A., by leveraging freely available airborne lidar observations to acquire remote-GCPs and open-source web tools for camera parameter approximations, ignoring lens distortion. Intrinsic and extrinsic camera parameters are determined using a modified space resection procedure, wherein parameters are determined using iterative adjustment while fitting to remote-GCPs and initial camera parameter approximations derived from justified assumptions and Google Earth. This procedure is completed using the open-source Surf-Camera Remote Calibration Tool (SurfRCaT). The results indicate root mean squared horizontal reprojection errors at the two cameras of 3.43 m and 6.48 m. Only immobile hard structures such as piers, jetties, and boulders are suitable as remote-GCPs, and the spatial distribution of available points is a likely reason for the higher accuracy at one camera relative to the other. Additionally, lens distortion is not considered in this work. This is another important source of error and including it in the methodology is highlighted as a useful avenue for future work. Additional factors, such as initial camera parameter approximation accuracy, likely play a role as well. This work illustrates that, provided there is sufficient remote-GCP availability and small lens distortion, remote video monitoring of coastal areas with existing surfcams could provide a usable source of coastal morphodynamic observations. This is further explored with a shoreline change analysis from the higher-accuracy camera. It was found that only the largest (>6 m) magnitude shoreline changes exceed the observational uncertainty driven by shoreline mapping error and reprojection error, indicating that remotely calibrated surfcams can provide observations of seasonal or storm-driven signals.

Florida↗
USGS1999

Variability in bacterial community structure during upwelling in the coastal ocean

Over the last 30 years, investigations at the community level of marine bacteria and phytoplankton populations suggest they are tightly coupled. However, traditional oceanographic approaches cannot assess whether associations between specific bacteria and phytoplankton exist. Recently, molecular based approaches have been implemented to characterize specific members of different marine bacterial communities. Yet, few molecular-based studies have examined coastal upwelling situations. This is important since upwelling systems provide a unique opportunity for analyzing the association between specific bacteria and specific phytoplankton in the ocean. It is widely believed that upwelling can lead to changes in phytoplankton populations (blooms). Thus, if specific associations exist, we would expect to observe changes in the bacterial population triggered by the bloom. In this paper, we present preliminary data from coastal waters off New Jersey that confirm a shift in bacterial communities during a 1995 upwelling event recorded at a long-term earth observatory (LEO-15) in the Mid-Atlantic Bight. Using PCR amplification and cloning, specific bacterial 16S ribosomal RNA sequences were found which were present in upwelling samples during a phytoplankton bloom, but were not detected in non-bloom samples (surface seawater, offshore sites or sediment samples) collected at the same time or in the same area. These findings are consistent with the notion of specific associations between bacteria and phytoplankton in the ocean. However, further examination of episodic events, such as coastal upwelling, are needed to confirm the existence of specific associations. Additionally, experiments need to be performed to elucidate the mechanisms leading to the specific linkages between a group of bacteria and a group of phytoplankton.

Hydrobiologia↗
USGS2019

On the intensity of the magnetic superstorm of September 1909

Analysis is made of solar observations and ground‐based magnetometer data recording space weather before and during the magnetic superstorm of 25 September 1909. From these data, it is inferred that the storm was initiated by an interplanetary coronal‐mass ejection having a mean Sun‐to‐Earth velocity of ~1,679 km/s. The commencement pressure on the magnetopause was ~32.4 nPa, sufficient to compress the subsolar magnetopause radius to ~5.9 Earth radii. Early on in the evolution of the storm, low‐latitude geomagnetic disturbance exhibited extreme longitudinal asymmetry, something that can be attributed to substorm activity extending to low latitudes. For this storm, Dst attained a minimum of −595 nT, comparable to that of the great magnetic storm of March 1989 (−589 nT; the most intense storm in terms of Dst of the space age). These results inform projects focused on understanding and mitigating the deleterious effects of extreme space‐weather events.

Space Weather↗
USGS2014

Tidal fluctuations of water level observed in wells in East Tennessee

Semidiurnal water‐level fluctuations of tidal period have been observed in wells completed in the Chickamauga limestone of Middle and Late Ordovician age in east Tennessee. The periodic oscillations of the water level are similar to fluctuations in artesian pressure that in other localities have been recognized and correlated with earth tides.

Tennessee↗
USGS2020

A new technique to calculate earthquake stress transfer and to forecast aftershocks

Coseismic stress changes have been the primary physical principle used to explain aftershocks and triggered earthquakes. However, this method does not adequately forecast earthquake rates and diverse rupture populations when subjected to formal testing. We show that earthquake forecasts can be impaired by assumptions made in physics-based models, such as the existence of hypothetical optimal faults, and regional scale invariability of the stress field. We compare calculations made under these assumptions along with different realizations of a new conceptual triggering model that features a complete assay of all possible ruptures. In this concept, there always exists a set of theoretical planes that has positive failure stress conditions under a combination of background and coseismic static stress change. In the Earth, all of these theoretical planes may not exist, and if they do, they may not be ready to fail. Thus the actual aftershock plane may not correspond to the plane with the maximum stress change value. This is consistent with observations that mainshocks commonly activate faults with exotic orientations and rakes. Our testing ground is the M=7.2, 2010 El Mayor-Cucapah earthquake sequence that activated multiple diverse fault populations across the USA-Mexico border in California and Baja California. We carry out a retrospective test involving 748 M≥3.0 triggered earthquakes that occurred during a 3-yr period after the mainshock. We find that a probabilistic expression of possible aftershock planes constrained by pre-mainshock rupture patterns is strongly favoured (89% of aftershocks consistent with static stress triggering) versus an optimal fault implementation (35% consistent). Results show that coseismic stress change magnitudes do not necessarily control earthquake triggering, instead we find that the summed background stress and coseismic stress change promotes diverse ruptures. Our model can thus explain earthquake triggering in regions where optimal plane mapping shows coseismic stress reduction.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗
USGS2010

Seismic source mechanism of degassing bursts at Kilauea volcano, Hawaii: Results from waveform inversion in the 10–50 s band

The current (March 2008 to February 2009) summit eruptive activity at Kilauea Volcano is characterized by explosive degassing bursts accompanied by very long period (VLP) seismic signals. We model the source mechanisms of VLP signals in the 10–50 s band using data recorded for 15 bursts with a 10‐station broadband network deployed in the summit caldera. To determine the source centroid location and source mechanism, we minimize the residual error between data and synthetics calculated by the finite difference method for a point source embedded in a homogeneous medium that takes topography into account. The VLP signals associated with the bursts originate in a source region ∼1 km below the eastern perimeter of Halemaumau pit crater. The observed waveforms are well explained by the combination of a volumetric component and a vertical single force component. For the volumetric component, several source geometries are obtained which equally explain the observed waveforms. These geometries include (1) a pipe dipping 64° to the northeast; (2) two intersecting cracks including an east striking crack (dike) dipping 80° to the north, intersecting a north striking crack (another dike) dipping 65° to the east; (3) a pipe dipping 58° to the northeast, intersecting a crack dipping 48° to the west–southwest; and (4) a pipe dipping 57° to the northeast, intersecting a pipe dipping 58° to the west–southwest. Using the dual‐crack model as reference, the largest volume change obtained among the 15 bursts is ∼24,400 m 3 , and the maximum amplitude (peak to peak) of the force is ∼20 GN. Each burst is marked by a similar sequence of deflation and inflation, trailed by decaying oscillations of the volumetric source. The vertical force is initially upward, synchronous with source deflation, then downward, synchronous with source reinflation, followed by oscillations with polarity opposite to the volumetric oscillations. This combination of force and volume change is attributed to pressure and momentum changes induced during a fluid dynamic source mechanism involving the ascent, expansion, and burst of a large slug of gas within the upper ∼150 m of the magma conduit. As the slug expands upon approach to the surface and more liquid becomes wall supported by viscous shear forces, the pressure below the slug decreases, inducing conduit deflation and an upward force on the Earth. The final rapid slug expansion and burst stimulate VLP and LP oscillations of the conduit system, which slowly decay due to viscous dissipation and elastic radiation. Consideration of the fluid dynamic arguments leads us to prefer the dual‐crack VLP source model as it is the only candidate model capable of producing plausible values of length scales and pressure changes. The magnitudes of the vertical forces observed in the 15 bursts appear consistent with slug masses of 10 4 to 10 6 kg.

Hawaii↗
USGS2005

A modified beam-to-earth transformation to measure short-wavelength internal waves with an acoustic Doppler current profiler

The algorithm used to transform velocity signals from beam coordinates to earth coordinates in an acoustic Doppler current profiler (ADCP) relies on the assumption that the currents are uniform over the horizontal distance separating the beams. This condition may be violated by (nonlinear) internal waves, which can have wavelengths as small as 100-200 m. In this case, the standard algorithm combines velocities measured at different phases of a wave and produces horizontal velocities that increasingly differ from true velocities with distance from the ADCP. Observations made in Massachusetts Bay show that currents measured with a bottom-mounted upward-looking ADCP during periods when short-wavelength internal waves are present differ significantly from currents measured by point current meters, except very close to the instrument. These periods are flagged with high error velocities by the standard ADCP algorithm. In this paper measurements from the four spatially diverging beams and the backscatter intensity signal are used to calculate the propagation direction and celerity of the internal waves. Once this information is known, a modified beam-to-earth transformation that combines appropriately lagged beam measurements can be used to obtain current estimates in earth coordinates that compare well with pointwise measurements. ?? 2005 American Meteorological Society.

Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology↗
USGS2000

Sedimentary and upper crustal structure of Australia from receiver functions

The initial coda of teleseismic P-waves contains considerable information about the crust and upper mantle structure directly beneath a receiver. When this information can be recovered for a dense network of seismographs much can be learned about the structure of the earth. Data from the high quality broadband seismic stations of the SKIPPY and KIMBA projects along with permanent stations are used to investigate the upper crustal structure of Australia. A dataset of 65 shear-velocity models derived from receiver functions has enabled the sedimentary and upper crustal structure of Australia to be summarised. Regions of thick soft sediment show good agreement with topographical lows. A simple relation between upper-crustal velocity and magnetisation, as has been suggested by other investigators, has not been observed, but this may be due to the magnetic signal being muted by overlying sediments. A prominent mid-crustal discontinuity is apparent in the Tasman and New England mega-elements. This may represent a mid-crustal decollement that had structural control during accretion.

Australian Journal of Earth Sciences↗
USGS1985

Scientific knowledge and modern prospecting

Modern prospecting is the systematic search for specified and generally ill-exposed components of the Earth's crust known as ore. This prospecting depends entirely on reliable, or scientific knowledge for guidance and for recognition of the search objects. Improvement in prospecting results from additions and refinements to scientific knowledge. Scientific knowledge is an ordered distillation of observations too numerous and too complex in themselves for easy understanding and for effective management. The ordering of these observations is accomplished by an evolutionary hierarchy of abstractions. These abstractions employ simplified descriptions consisting of characterization by selected properties, sampling to represent much larger parts of a phenomenon, generalized mappings of patterns of geometrical and numerical relations among properties, and explanation (theory) of these patterns as functional relations among the selected properties. Each abstraction is predicated on the mode of abstraction anticipated for the next higher level, so that research is a deductive process in which the highest level, theory, is indispensable for the growth and refinement of scientific knowledge, and therefore of prospecting methodology.

Mineralium Deposita↗
USGS1969

On the global variations of terrestrial heat-flow

Over 3 500 measurements of surface heat-flux have been catalogued and analyzed to study the large-scale variations of terrestrial heat-flow. It was found that heat-flow values are correlated with major geologic provinces: higher averages and scattered values in active tectonic regions, and lower averages and more uniform values in stable areas. Analyzing the data in the light of new global tectonics shows that the variations of heat-flow are consistent with the hypotheses of sea-floor spreading and plate tectonics. The observed heat-flow across the mid-oceanic ridges can be accounted for by a simple model of a spreading sea floor.

Physics of the Earth and Planetary Interiors↗
USGS2018

Shrubland carbon sink depends upon winter water availability in the warm deserts of North America

Global-scale studies suggest that dryland ecosystems dominate an increasing trend in the magnitude and interannual variability of the land CO 2 sink. However, such model-based analyses are poorly constrained by measured CO 2 exchange in open shrublands, which is the most common global land cover type, covering ∼14% of Earth’s surface. Here we evaluate how the amount and seasonal timing of water availability regulate CO 2 exchange between shrublands and the atmosphere. We use eddy covariance data from six US sites across the three warm deserts of North America with observed ranges in annual precipitation of ∼100–400mm, annual temperatures of 13–18°C, and records of 2–8 years (33 site-years in total). The Chihuahuan, Sonoran and Mojave Deserts present gradients in both mean annual precipitation and its seasonal distribution between the wet-winter Mojave Desert and the wet-summer Chihuahuan Desert. We found that due to hydrologic losses during the wettest summers in the Sonoran and Chihuahuan Deserts, evapotranspiration (ET) was a better metric than precipitation of water available to drive dryland CO 2 exchange. In contrast with recent synthesis studies across diverse dryland biomes, we found that NEP could not be directly predicted from ET due to wintertime decoupling of the relationship between ecosystem respiration (R eco ) and gross ecosystem productivity (GEP). Ecosystem water use efficiency (WUE=GEP/ET) did not differ between winter and summer. Carbon use efficiency (CUE=NEP/GEP), however, was greater in winter because R eco returned a smaller fraction of carbon to the atmosphere (23% of GEP) than in summer (77%). Combining the water-carbon relations found here with historical precipitation since 1980, we estimate that lower average winter precipitation during the 21st century reduced the net carbon sink of the three deserts by an average of 6.8TgC yr 1 . Our results highlight that winter precipitation is critical to the annual carbon balance of these warm desert shrublands.

Agricultural and Forest Meteorology↗
USGS2012

The mechanics of ground deformation precursory to dome-building extrusions at Mount St. Helens 1981-1982

Detailed monitoring at Mount St. Helens since 1980 has enabled prediction of the intermittent eruptive activity (mostly dome growth) with unprecedented success. During 1981 and 1982, accelerating deformation of the crater floor around the vent (including radial cracks, thrust faults, and ground tilt) was the earliest indicator of impending activity. Numerical experiments using the finite element method to model the mechanics of the crater floor show that all deformation features can be explained by a uniform shear-stress boundary condition along the conduit wall. The magnitude of the shear stress required to match observed displacements (1–7 MPa) is inversely proportional to the conduit diameter (estimated to be 25–100 m). The most probable source of this shear stress is the flow of viscous magma up the conduit and into the lava dome. We propose a model in which the accelerating deformation, beginning as much as 4 weeks before extrusions, is caused by the increasing velocity of ascending magma in the conduit. This model is examined by using deformation data of the dome before four extrusions in 1981 and 1982 to estimate the volumetric flow rate through the conduit. This flow rate and an estimate of the effective viscosity of the magma enable calculation of an ascent velocity and an applied shear stress that, again, depend on the conduit diameter. The results of these calculations are consistent with the finite element experiments and show that the proposed model is feasible. In light of this model, events observed just before or near the time extrusions began, such as reversals of ground tilt direction from outward to inward and the sudden decrease in the number of shallow earthquakes, may indicate an abrupt decrease of shear stress in the conduit. This could be explained by a decrease in either the ascent velocity, or the effective viscosity of the magma ascending through the shallow conduit, or both, near the time of extrusion. Precursory deformation like that measured at Mount St. Helens should be observable at similar volcanoes elsewhere because it is caused by the fundamental process of magma ascent.

Journal of Geophysical Research Solid Earth↗
USGS1980

Aeromagnetic and radio echo ice-sounding measurements show much greater area of the Dufek intrusion, Antarctica

A combined aeromagnetic and radio echo ice-sounding survey made in 1978 in Antarctica over the Dufek layered mafic intrusion suggests a minimum area of the intrusion of about 50,000 square kilometers, making it comparable in size with the Bushveld Complex of Africa. Comparisons of the magnetic and subglacial topographic profiles illustrate the usefulness of this combination of methods in studying bedrock geology beneath ice-covered areas. Magnetic anomalies range in peak-to-trough amplitude from about 50 nanoteslas over the lowermost exposed portion of the section in the Dufek Massif to about 3600 nanoteslas over the uppermost part of the section in the Forrestal Range. Theoretical magnetic anomalies, computed from a model based on the subice topography fitted to the highest amplitude observed magnetic anomalies, required normal and reversed magnetizations ranging from 10 -3 to 10 -2 electromagnetic units per cubic centimeter. This result is interpreted as indicating that the Dufek intrusion cooled through the Curie isotherm during one or more reversals of the earth's magnetic field.

Science↗
USGS2013

Overview of intercalibration of satellite instruments

Inter-calibration of satellite instruments is critical for detection and quantification of changes in the Earth’s environment, weather forecasting, understanding climate processes, and monitoring climate and land cover change. These applications use data from many satellites; for the data to be inter-operable, the instruments must be cross-calibrated. To meet the stringent needs of such applications requires that instruments provide reliable, accurate, and consistent measurements over time. Robust techniques are required to ensure that observations from different instruments can be normalized to a common scale that the community agrees on. The long-term reliability of this process needs to be sustained in accordance with established reference standards and best practices. Furthermore, establishing physical meaning to the information through robust Système International d'unités (SI) traceable Calibration and Validation (Cal/Val) is essential to fully understand the parameters under observation. The processes of calibration, correction, stability monitoring, and quality assurance need to be underpinned and evidenced by comparison with “peer instruments” and, ideally, highly calibrated in-orbit reference instruments. Inter-calibration between instruments is a central pillar of the Cal/Val strategies of many national and international satellite remote sensing organizations. Inter-calibration techniques as outlined in this paper not only provide a practical means of identifying and correcting relative biases in radiometric calibration between instruments but also enable potential data gaps between measurement records in a critical time series to be bridged. Use of a robust set of internationally agreed upon and coordinated inter-calibration techniques will lead to significant improvement in the consistency between satellite instruments and facilitate accurate monitoring of the Earth’s climate at uncertainty levels needed to detect and attribute the mechanisms of change. This paper summarizes the state-of-the-art of post-launch radiometric calibration of remote sensing satellite instruments, through inter-calibration.

IEEE Transactions on Geoscience and Remote Sensing↗
USGS2009

Modeling aluminum-silicon chemistries and application to Australian acidic playa lakes as analogues for Mars

Recent Mars missions have stimulated considerable thinking about the surficial geochemical evolution of Mars. Among the major relevant findings are the presence in Meridiani Planum sediments of the mineral jarosite (a ferric sulfate salt) and related minerals that require formation from an acid-salt brine and oxidizing environment. Similar mineralogies have been observed in acidic saline lake sediments in Western Australia (WA), and these lakes have been proposed as analogues for acidic sedimentary environments on Mars. The prior version of the equilibrium chemical thermodynamic FREZCHEM model lacked Al and Si chemistries that are needed to appropriately model acidic aqueous geochemistries on Earth and Mars. The objectives of this work were to (1) add Al and Si chemistries to the FREZCHEM model, (2) extend these chemistries to low temperatures (<0 ??C), if possible, and (3) use the reformulated model to investigate parallels in the mineral precipitation behavior of acidic Australian lakes and hypothetical Martian brines. FREZCHEM is an equilibrium chemical thermodynamic model parameterized for concentrated electrolyte solutions using the Pitzer approach for the temperature range from <-70 to 25 ??C and the pressure range from 1 to 1000 bars. Aluminum chloride and sulfate mineral parameterizations were based on experimental data. Aluminum hydroxide and silicon mineral parameterizations were based on Gibbs free energy and enthalpy data. New aluminum and silicon parameterizations added 12 new aluminum/silicon minerals to this Na-K-Mg-Ca-Fe(II)-Fe(III)-Al-H-Cl-Br-SO 4 -NO 3 -OH-HCO 3 -CO 3 -CO 2 -O 2 -CH 4 -Si-H 2 O system that now contain 95 solid phases. There were similarities, differences, and uncertainties between Australian acidic, saline playa lakes and waters that likely led to the Burns formation salt accumulations on Mars. Both systems are similar in that they are dominated by (1) acidic, saline ground waters and sediments, (2) Ca and/or Mg sulfates, and (3) iron precipitates such as jarosite and hematite. Differences include: (1) the dominance of NaCl in many WA lakes, versus the dominance of Fe-Mg-Ca-SO 4 in Meridiani Planum, (2) excessively low K + concentrations in Meridiani Planum due to jarosite precipitation, (3) higher acid production in the presence of high iron concentrations in Meridiani Planum, and probably lower rates of acid neutralization and hence, higher acidities on Mars owing to colder temperatures, and (4) lateral salt patterns in WA lakes. The WA playa lakes display significant lateral variations in mineralogy and water chemistry over short distances, reflecting the interaction of acid ground waters with neutral to alkaline lake waters derived from ponded surface runoff. Meridiani Planum observations indicate that such lateral variations are much less pronounced, pointing to the dominant influence of ground water chemistry, vertical ground water movements, and aeolian processes on the Martian surface mineralogy. ?? 2009 Elsevier Ltd.

Geochimica et Cosmochimica Acta↗
USGS2015

Conservation paleobiology: Leveraging knowledge of the past to inform conservation and restoration

Humans now play a major role in altering Earth and its biota. Finding ways to ameliorate human impacts on biodiversity and to sustain and restore the ecosystem services on which we depend is a grand scientific and societal challenge. Conservation paleobiology is an emerging discipline that uses geohistorical data to meet these challenges by developing and testing models of how biota respond to environmental stressors. Here we ( a ) describe how the discipline has already provided insights about biotic responses to key environmental stressors, ( b ) outline research aimed at disentangling the effects of multiple stressors, ( c ) provide examples of deliverables for managers and policy makers, and ( d ) identify methodological advances in geohistorical analysis that will foster the next major breakthroughs in conservation outcomes. We highlight cases for which exclusive reliance on observations of living biota may lead researchers to erroneous conclusions about the nature and magnitude of biotic change, vulnerability, and resilience.

Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences↗
USGS2023

Sediment thickness map of United States Atlantic and Gulf Coastal Plain Strata, and their influence on earthquake ground motions

With the recent successful accounting of basin depth ground-motion adjustments in seismic hazard analyses for select areas of the western United States, we move toward implementing similar adjustments in the Atlantic and Gulf Coastal Plains by constructing a sediment thickness model and evaluating multiple relevant site amplification models for central and eastern United States seismic hazard analyses. We digitize and combine existing sediment thickness data sets into a composite surface that delineates the base of Cretaceous sediments under the Atlantic Coastal Plain and the base of Mesozoic sediments under the Gulf Coastal Plain. Amplification models dependent on sediment thickness, site natural period, and source-to-site path length are compared with data sets of observed ground motions to evaluate the ability of the new models to improve ground motion estimates. We find that the amplification models can account for observed trends in sediment-thickness and period-dependent residuals, but some tuning is required. For example, the model of Chapman and Guo requires a reference V S 30 , the time-averaged shear-wave velocity within 30 m of the Earth’s surface, for non-Coastal Plain sites, which we estimate to be between about 1 and 2 km/s. Along with our sediment thickness model, we estimate a velocity profile for application to the Harmon et al. site-natural-period-based model in order to best match the Chapman and Guo period dependence for a broad range of sediment thicknesses. The Next Generation of Attenuation models for the eastern United States Gulf Coast path-based adjustment models can also account for seismic attenuation in the Coastal Plain sediments and reduce the standard deviation of total residuals. If enacted in the U.S. Geological Survey National Seismic Hazard Model, these amplification models will reduce predicted short-period (<1 s) and increase predicted long-period (>1 s) ground motions in the Coastal Plains appreciably.

Earthquake Spectra↗