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USGS2015

Modelling regional land change scenarios to assess land abandonment and reforestation dynamics in the Pyrenees (France)

Over the last decades and centuries, European mountain landscapes have experienced substantial transformations. Natural and anthropogenic LULC changes (land use and land cover changes), especially agro-pastoral activities, have directly influenced the spatial organization and composition of European mountain landscapes. For the past sixty years, natural reforestation has been occurring due to a decline in both agricultural production activities and rural population. Stakeholders, to better anticipate future changes, need spatially and temporally explicit models to identify areas at risk of land change and possible abandonment. This paper presents an integrated approach combining forecasting scenarios and a LULC changes simulation model to assess where LULC changes may occur in the Pyrenees Mountains, based on historical LULC trends and a range of future socio-economic drivers. The proposed methodology considers local specificities of the Pyrenean valleys, sub-regional climate and topographical properties, and regional economic policies. Results indicate that some regions are projected to face strong abandonment, regardless of the scenario conditions. Overall, high rates of change are associated with administrative regions where land productivity is highly dependent on socio-economic drivers and climatic and environmental conditions limit intensive (agricultural and/or pastoral) production and profitability. The combination of the results for the four scenarios allows assessments of where encroachment (e.g. colonization by shrublands) and reforestation are the most probable. This assessment intends to provide insight into the potential future development of the Pyrenees to help identify areas that are the most sensitive to change and to guide decision makers to help their management decisions.

Journal of Mountain Science↗

USGS2012

Topographic change detection at select archeological sites in Grand Canyon National Park, Arizona, 2007-2010

Human occupation in Grand Canyon, Arizona, dates from at least 11,000 years before present to the modern era. For most of this period, the only evidence of human occupation in this iconic landscape is provided by archeological sites. Because of the dynamic nature of this environment, many archeological sites are subject to relatively rapid topographic change. Quantifying the extent, magnitude, and cause of such change is important for monitoring and managing these archeological sites. Such quantification is necessary to help inform the continuing debate on whether and how controlled releases from Glen Canyon Dam, located immediately upstream of Grand Canyon National Park, are affecting site erosion rates, artifact transport, and archeological resource preservation along the Colorado River in Grand Canyon. Although long-term topographic change resulting from a variety of natural processes is inherent in the Grand Canyon region, continued erosion of archeological sites threatens both the archeological resources and our future ability to study evidence of past cultural habitation. Thus, this subject is of considerable interest to National Park Service managers and other stakeholders in the Glen Canyon Dam Adaptive Management Program. Understanding the causes and effects of archeological site erosion requires a knowledge of several factors, including the location, timing, and magnitude of the changes occurring in relation to archeological resources, the rates of change, and the relative contribution of potential causes. These potential causes include sediment depletion associated with managed flows from Glen Canyon Dam, site-specific weather and overland flow patterns, visitor impacts, and long-term regional climate change. To obtain this information, highly accurate, spatially specific data are needed from sites undergoing change. Using terrestrial lidar techniques, and building upon three previous surveys of archeological sites performed in 2006 and 2007, we collected two new datasets in April and September 2010 and processed and improved upon existing methods to generate high-accuracy (3 to 5 cm vertical change threshold) topographic change-detection maps for 10 survey areas encompassing 9 archeological sites along the Colorado River corridor. We also used terrestrial lidar techniques to investigate several other metrics for studying archeological site stability, including monitoring cultural structures and artifacts and remotely measuring cryptobiotic soil crust areas. Our topographic change results indicate that 9 of 10 survey areas showed signs of either erosion, deposition, or both during the 2007–2010 time interval and that these changes can be linked to a variety of geomorphic processes, primarily overland flow gullying and aeolian sand transport. In several cases, large (>50 cm) vertical change occurred, and in one case, more than 100 m 3 of sediment was eroded. Further, for all sites monitored throughout the river corridor during this time period, the overall signal was related to erosion rather than deposition. These results highlight the potential for rapid archeological site change in Grand Canyon. Whereas the topographic change results presented herein provide the highest level of change detection yet performed on entire archeological sites in Grand Canyon, additional work in combining these results with site-specific weather, hydrology, and geomorphology data is needed to provide a more thorough understanding of the causes of the documented topographic changes. Linking lidar-derived measurements of topographic changes with these other data sources should provide land managers with a scientific basis for making management decisions regarding archeological resources in Grand Canyon National Park and assist in answering open questions regarding the influence that sediment-depleted flows from Glen Canyon Dam have on archeological site stability.

Arizona↗

USGS2009

Mirror Lake: Past, present and future

This chapter discusses the hydrological and biogeochemical characteristics of Mirror Lake and the changes that resulted from air-land-water interactions and human activities. Since the formation of Mirror Lake, both the watershed and the lake have undergone many changes, such as vegetation development and basin filling. These changes are ongoing, and Mirror Lake is continuing along an aging pathway and ultimately, it will fill with sediment and no longer be a lake. The chapter also identifies major factors that affected the hydrology and biogeochemistry of Mirror Lake: acid rain, atmospheric deposition of lead and other heavy metals, increased human settlement around the lake, the construction of an interstate highway through the watershed of the Northeast Tributary, the construction of an access road through the West and Northeast watersheds to the lake, and climate change. The chapter also offers future recommendations for management and protection of Mirror Lake.

New Hampshire↗

USGS1994

The volcanic, sedimentologic, and paleolimnologic history of the Crater Lake caldera floor, Oregon:Evidence for small caldera evolution

Apparent phreatic explosion craters, caldera-floor volcanic cones, and geothermal features outline a ring fracture zone along which Mount Mazama collapsed to form the Crater Lake caldera during its climactic eruption about 6,850 yr B.P. Within a few years, subaerial deposits infilled the phreatic craters and then formed a thick wedge (10-20 m) of mass flow deposits shed from caldera walls. Intense volcanic activity (phreatic explosions, subaerial flows, and hydrothermal venting) occurred during this early postcaldera stage, and a central platform of subaerial andesite flows and scoria formed on the caldera floor. Radiocarbon ages suggest that deposition of Iacustrine hemipelagic sediment began on the central platform about 150 yr after the caldera collapse. This is the minimum time to fill the lake halfway with water and cover the platform assuming present hydrologic conditions of precipitation and evaporation but with negligible leakage of lake water. Wizard Island formed during the final part of the 300-yr lake-filling period as shown by its (1) upper subaerial lava flows from 0 to -70 m below present water level and lower subaqueous lava flows from -70 to -500 m and by (2) lacustrine turbidite sand derived from Wizard Island that was deposited on the central platform about 350 yr after the caldera collapse. Pollen stratigraphy indicates that the warm and dry climate of middle Holocene time correlates with the early lake deposits. Diatom stratigraphy also suggests a more thermally stratified and phosphate-rich environment associated respectively with this climate and greater hydrothermal activity during the early lake history. Apparent coarse-grained and thick-bedded turbidites of the early lake beds were deposited throughout northwest, southwest, and eastern basins during the time that volcanic and seismic activity formed the subaqueous Wizard Island, Merriam Cone, and rhyodacite dome. The last known postcaldera volcanic activity produced a subaqueous rhyodacite ash bed and dome about 4,240 yr B.P. The late lake beds with base-of-slope aprons and thin, fine-grained basin-plain turbidites were deposited during the volcanically quiescent period of the past 4,000 yr. Deposits in Crater Lake and on similar caldera floors suggest that four stages characterize the postcaldera evolution of smaller (≤10 km in diameter) terrestrial caldera lake floors: (1) initial-stage caldera collapse forms the ring fracture zone that controls location of the main volcanic eruptive centers and sedimentary basin depocenters on the caldera floor; (2) early-stage subaerial sedimentation rapidly fills ring-fracture depressions and constructs basin-floor debris fans from calderawall landslides; (3) first-stage subaqueous sedimentation deposits thick flat-lying lake turbidites throughout basins, while a thin blanket of hemipelagic sediment covers volcanic edifices that continue to form concurrently with lake sedimentation; and (4) second-stage subaqueous sedimentation after the waning of major volcanic activity and the earlier periods of most rapid sedimentation develops small sili-ciclastic basin base-of-slope turbidite aprons and central basin plains. Renewed volcanic activity or lake destruction could cause part or all of the cycle to repeat.

Oregon↗

USGS1999

200,000 years of climate change recorded in eolian sediments of the High Plains of eastern Colorado and western Nebraska

Loess and eolian sand cover vast areas of the western Great Plains of Nebraska, Kansas and Colorado (Fig. 1). In recent studies of Quaternary climate change, there has been a renewed interest in loess and eolian sand. Much of the attention now given to loess stems from new studies of long loess sequences that contain detailed records of Quaternary glacial-interglacial cycles, thought to be a terrestrial equivalent to the foraminiferal oxygen isotope record in deep-sea sediments (Fig. 2). Loess is also a direct record of atmospheric circulation, and identification of loess paleowinds in the geologic record can test atmospheric general circulation models. Until recently, eolian sand on the Great Plains had received little attention from Quaternary geologists. The past decade has seen a proliferation of studies of Great Plains dune sands, and many studies, summarized below, indicate that landscapes characterized by eolian sand have had dynamic histories. On this field trip, we will visit some key eolian sand and loess localities in eastern Colorado and southwestern Nebraska (Fig. 1). Stratigraphic studies at some of these localities have been conducted for more than 50 years, but others have been systematically studied only in the past few years. Many of the data which appear in this guidebook have been derived from previous studies (Swinehart and Diffendal, 1990; Madole, 1994; Loope and others, 1995; Maat and Johnson, 1996; Muhs and others, 1996, 1997a, 1999; Mason and others, 1997; Aleinikoff and others, 1999), but some are presented here for the first time.

Colorado;Nebraska↗

USGS2024

The National Ocean Biodiversity Strategy

President Biden has been clear that the ocean is central to life on Earth. As he has proclaimed, “the ocean powers millions of jobs; feeds and sustains us; and is a rejuvenating source of inspiration, exploration, and recreation.” The Biden-Harris Administration has worked hard to fulfill the President’s goal to protect and conserve at least 30% of U.S. waters by 2030. The ocean faces increased threats from warming, overfishing, increased acidity, and loss of biodiversity. It is now more important than ever to sustain the many benefits that the ocean, coasts, and Great Lakes provide, including food, a favorable climate, recreation, physical and mental health, and for many, a sense of cultural identity. Ocean life represents an irreplaceable heritage, the foundation of a habitable planet, and a vast trove of resources. Keeping our ocean healthy requires reliable information on the changing status of these living organisms, the drivers of biodiversity change, and options for effectively addressing those drivers. Over 2 million species are estimated to live in the ocean, yet only about 240,000 species have been described by scientists. Most of the ocean’s benefits result from those diverse species interacting with one another and the environment they create. To protect and conserve the ocean, we as a nation need to make better use of existing knowledge and prioritize acquiring new biodiversity knowledge to enable better policy and management decisions. The ability to monitor ocean species and habitats has expanded dramatically over the past decade, with innovations in technology, genomics, taxonomy, big data management and sharing, artificial intelligence, and machine learning. Yet large fractions of the U.S. ocean remain almost unknown. The National Ocean Biodiversity Strategy (strategy) reflects the urgent need to leverage these advances. The goals of this strategy must be guided by the nation’s diverse voices and ways of knowing, in order to maximize effective and equitable stewardship of the ocean’s diverse life and its benefits to people. The strategy is intended as a guiding document for government to advance three overarching goals: ● Goal 1: Drive delivery of ocean biodiversity knowledge at the national scale. Objectives include developing an Implementation Plan for achieving the strategy’s three goals; establishing a coordination mechanism to manage the implementation; and documenting gaps in biodiversity knowledge and the benefits of ocean biodiversity to people and economies. ● Goal 2: Strengthen tools and institutions to deliver ocean biodiversity knowledge. Objectives include establishing a robust information pipeline to support indicators and dynamic maps of ocean biodiversity, from the coasts to the deep sea. This pipeline should include expanded observing systems and comprehensive data management; science and technology solutions to accelerate the availability of biodiversity information; and plans to leverage previous investments to rebuild and expand the nation’s human capital and infrastructure to sustain foundational taxonomy and biodiversity science. ● Goal 3: Protect, conserve, restore, and sustainably use ocean biodiversity. Objectives include expanding the collection, delivery, and use of biodiversity knowledge to inform actions that advance ocean protection, conservation, restoration, and sustainable development. Government should lead in establishing and incentivizing diverse partnerships across scales and sectors to implement those actions and should educate and involve the public to discover and value the nation’s diverse ocean life. Achieving these goals will require commitments across society: new federal and private investments, coordination across sectors to address climate and equity challenges, and engagement of Indigenous Knowledge holders and frontline communities as full partners throughout planning and implementation. The Subcommittee on Ocean Science and Technology (SOST) IWG-Biodiversity will begin developing an Implementation Plan to describe and direct specific actions to implement the strategy. Successful implementation of the strategy will harmonize and expand collection and delivery of timely knowledge on ocean life to all of society. The strategy will also enable evidence-based management and protection of the ocean. Advancing the strategy will build human and institutional capital and partnerships that support both existing mandates and new needs to rebuild and sustain biodiversity, achieve healthy ocean ecosystems, and manage living resources. Implementing the strategy will deliver knowledge for monitoring, modeling, forecasting, and assessments that support food security, public health, and cultural values, and that more effectively protect, conserve, and restore nature.

Report↗

USGS2024

Scalable, data-assimilated models predict large-scale shoreline response to waves and sea-level rise

Coastal change is a complex combination of multi-scale processes (e.g., wave-driven cross-shore and longshore transport; dune, bluff, and cliff erosion; overwash; fluvial and inlet sediment supply; and sea-level-driven recession). Historical sea-level-driven coastal recession on open ocean coasts is often outpaced by wave-driven change. However, future sea-level-driven coastal recession is expected to increase significantly in tandem with accelerating rates of global sea-level rise. Few models of coastal sediment transport can resolve the multitude of coastal-change processes at a given beach, and fewer still are computationally efficient enough to achieve large-scale, long-term simulations, while accounting for historical behavior and uncertainties in future climate. Here, we show that a scalable, data-assimilated shoreline-change model can achieve realistic simulations of long-term coastal change and uncertainty across large coastal regions. As part of the modeling case study of the U.S. South Atlantic Coast (Miami, Florida to Delaware Bay) presented here, we apply historical, satellite-derived observations of shoreline position combined with daily hindcasted and projected wave and sea-level conditions to estimate long-term coastal change by 2100. We find that 63 to 94% of the shorelines on the U.S. South Atlantic Coast are projected to retreat past the present-day extent of sandy beach under 1.0 to 2.0 m of sea-level rise, respectively, without large-scale interventions.

North Carolina↗

USGS2015

Energy flow and the “grassification” of desert shrublands

In our directionally and continuously changing world, history still matters, and it does so in increasingly novel and important ways. Human adaptation to global change will rely heavily on robust baselines of historic environmental variability and detailed understanding of how both past and modern ecosystems have responded to both individual and multiple stressors. The question of global change has motivated an upsurge in paleoecological studies that span the late Quaternary and the modern era, and has inspired a growing consideration of time as a fundamental axis in ecology ( 1 ). A major challenge in developing pertinent ecological baselines remains how to fuse, into continuous time series, observations and experiments from living systems with paleoecological reconstructions from the same sites ( 2 , 3 ). Tracing and disentangling complex responses to environmental stress from paleological to present-day communities is especially daunting; for example, how climate change; accelerated land use; and biological invasions are influencing the flows of water, nutrients, and energy. The paper by Terry and Rowe in PNAS ( 4 ) is a shining example of how modern ecology and paleoecology can be spliced together to decipher how ecological processes unfold over time scales inaccessible to direct observation or experimentation, and how they can be disrupted by human impacts.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences↗

USGS2022

Waters divided: A history of alluvial fan research and a view of its future

Flows exiting confined valleys tend to deposit sediment in fan-shaped landforms. Where deposition is wholly or largely by the tractive forces of flowing water, these landforms are called alluvial fans. They are the product of the progressive division of water and sediment downfan, from slopes that may exceed 0.10 to distal slopes that may be below 0.01. Channel depths also tend to decline, from values that approach one to several meters at steep fanheads, to a few decimeters at distal fan margins. The result is a radiating, depositional ramp where confined or unconfined flows transport sediment from source basins to bounding streams, subsiding basins, or stable platforms. Where streams or subsiding basins consume the sediment supply from the source basin, the fan may approach a steady form whose extent and distal slope are set by stream location or subsidence rate. Where boundary conditions do not remove sediment, the fan may prograde out to long distances and low slopes (<0.01). Theoretical and experimental work over the past several decades support the notion that alluvial fan long-profiles become steeper as sediment supply increases or transport capacity decreases, and increasingly concave upward as the rate of bed material deposition decreases downfan. Grainsize distributions of alluvial fans seem to span the range observed in alluvial rivers, with no processes that uniquely identify them, apart from the distributary pattern of deposition. Bed sand cover tends to increase downfan in arid-region fans, with an absence of systematic downfan fining of coarser grain sizes. Surficial mapping and geochronology have demonstrated that fan deposition varies greatly through time, arguably from climate variations that alter hillslope sediment supply. The combination of surficial mapping and hydraulic modeling with high-resolution topography can now produce detailed flood susceptibility maps. The effective use of these maps to protect lives and property, however, depends on answering many of the enduring questions about the mechanics of how water and sediment divide down alluvial fans.

Book chapter↗

USGS2020

Yellowstone's Old Faithful Geyser shut down by a severe 13th century drought

To characterize eruption activity of the iconic Old Faithful Geyser in Yellowstone National Park over past centuries, we obtained 41 new radiocarbon dates of mineralized wood preserved in the mound of silica that precipitated from erupted waters. Trees do not grow on active geyser mounds, implying that trees grew on the Old Faithful Geyser mound during a protracted period of eruption quiescence. Rooted stumps and root crowns located on higher parts of the mound are evidence that at the time of tree growth, the geyser mound closely resembled its current appearance. The range of calibrated radiocarbon dates (1233–1362 CE) is coincident with a series of severe multidecadal regional droughts toward the end of the Medieval Climate Anomaly, prior to the onset of the Little Ice Age. Climate models project increasingly severe droughts by mid‐21st century, suggesting that geyser eruptions could become less frequent or completely cease.

Wyoming↗

USGS2021

The imminent calving retreat of Taku Glacier

Along the rugged Southeast Alaska coast, 30 kilometers northeast of the state capital Juneau, a tidewater glacier has largely defied global trends by steadily advancing for most of the past century while most glaciers on Earth retreated. This 55-kilometer-long and nearly 1,500-meter-thick tidewater glacier, named Taku Glacier, or T'aaḵú Ḵwáan Sít'i in the language of the Indigenous Tlingit people, has been the focus of continuous scientific study for more than 70 years. Some records even extend back to the mid-18th century. With this long observation record and the glacier’s year-round accessibility and proximity to Juneau and adjacent research facilities, Taku provides an unparalleled locale to study tidewater glaciers and their response to Earth’s rapidly changing climate.

Eos, American Geophysical Union↗

USGS2022

Wetland ecosystem health and biodiversity

• Cropland expansion from 2008 to 2016 was mostly from losses of grassland (88%), with 3% losses from wetlands (a total of nearly 275,000 acres of wetlands, concentrated in the Prairie Pothole Region). Given the lack of national or regional datasets to track changes in RFS acreage, the extent of wetland losses directly attributable to the RFS cannot be more accurately estimated in the RtC3. • Wetlands gains and losses are not distributed evenly across wetland types or sizes. Since 2007, the nation has lost 120.3 thousand acres of palustrine (marsh-like) wetlands and gained 205.9 thousand acres of lacustrine (lake-like) habitats in the conterminous United States. The diverse wetlands within these classes support different species and perform different ecosystem functions, including loss of functions that impact watershed hydrology, water quality, and water quantity. • Small, seasonal wetlands are being lost at the fastest rate. The loss and consolidation of small wetlands to promote crop production has negatively impacted amphibians, invertebrates, and other aquatic species that depend on shallow water depths for reproduction. Shifts to longer hydroperiods in large or consolidated wetlands have more uniform (less diverse) invertebrate communities and can support fish that prey on insects and amphibians. • Small wetlands and ponds are primary sources of water for aquifer recharge in the Northern Prairies. Recent studies in the Canadian portion of the Prairie Pothole Region found that while permanent ponds and wetlands are sources for recharge to aquifers, wetlands with surface water ponds that dry out every year play the dominant role in groundwater replenishment. • While some Endangered Species Act-listed and other waterbirds have declined, waterfowl (ducks, geese, swans) as a group have not experienced declines over the past decade, possibly due to availability of food (grains), increased precipitation, and the interspersion of ponded waters and agricultural fields along migration routes. • Shifts to corn and soybean production have resulted in more frequent application of chemicals, including pesticides and fertilizers. Increased usage of neonicotinoid insecticides is of particular concern because of their high toxicity to invertebrates, which are important food sources for wetland-dependent taxa. • Evidence from the Prairie Pothole Region suggests that trends in larger wetland size, shifts to lakes and ponds (vs. vegetated wetlands), and prolonged and more frequent flooding are due to the combined effects of climate change and increased wetland ditching and consolidation. These trends are highly correlated with increased annual precipitation, which is projected to continue.

Report↗

USGS2023

Monitoring interdecadal coastal change along dissipative beaches via satellite imagery at regional scale

Coastal morphological changes can be assessed using shoreline position observations from space. However, satellite-derived waterline (SDW) and shoreline (SDS; SDW corrected for hydrodynamic contributions and outliers) detection methods are subject to several sources of uncertainty and inaccuracy. We extracted high-spatiotemporal-resolution (~50 m-monthly) time series of mean high water shoreline position along the Columbia River Littoral Cell (CRLC), located on the US Pacific Northwest coast, from Landsat missions (1984–2021). We examined the accuracy of the SDS time series along the mesotidal, mildly sloping, high-energy wave climate and dissipative beaches of the CRLC by validating them against 20 years of quarterly in situ beach elevation profiles. We found that the accuracy of the SDS time series heavily depends on the capability to identify and remove outliers and correct the biases stemming from tides and wave runup. However, we show that only correcting the SDW data for outliers is sufficient to accurately measure shoreline change trends along the CRLC. Ultimately, the SDS change trends show strong agreement with in situ data, facilitating the spatiotemporal analysis of coastal change and highlighting an overall accretion signal along the CRLC during the past four decades.

Oregon, Washington↗

USGS2012

Walrus areas of use in the Chukchi Sea during sparse sea ice cover

The Pacific walrus Odobenus rosmarus divergens feeds on benthic invertebrates on the continental shelf of the Chukchi and Bering Seas and rests on sea ice between foraging trips. With climate warming, ice-free periods in the Chukchi Sea have increased and are projected to increase further in frequency and duration. We radio-tracked walruses to estimate areas of walrus foraging and occupancy in the Chukchi Sea from June to November of 2008 to 2011, years when sea ice was sparse over the continental shelf in comparison to historical records. The earlier and more extensive sea ice retreat in June to September, and delayed freeze-up of sea ice in October to November, created conditions for walruses to arrive earlier and stay later in the Chukchi Sea than in the past. The lack of sea ice over the continental shelf from September to October caused walruses to forage in nearshore areas instead of offshore areas as in the past. Walruses did not frequent the deep waters of the Arctic Basin when sea ice retreated off the shelf. Walruses foraged in most areas they occupied, and areas of concentrated foraging generally corresponded to regions of high benthic biomass, such as in the northeastern (Hanna Shoal) and southwestern Chukchi Sea. A notable exception was the occurrence of concentrated foraging in a nearshore area of northwestern Alaska that is apparently depauperate in walrus prey. With increasing sea ice loss, it is likely that walruses will increase their use of coastal haul-outs and nearshore foraging areas, with consequences to the population that are yet to be understood.

Alaska;Chukotka↗

USGS2002

Modeling and measuring snow for assessing climate change impacts in Glacier National Park, Montana

A 12-year program of global change research at Glacier National Park by the U.S. Geological Survey and numerous collaborators has made progress in quantifying the role of snow as a driver of mountain ecosystem processes. Spatially extensive snow surveys during the annual accumulation/ablation cycle covered two mountain watersheds and approximately 1,000 km2 . Over 7,000 snow depth and snow water equivalent (SWE) measurements have been made through spring 2002. These augment two SNOTEL sites, 9 NRCS snow courses, and approximately 150 snow pit analyses. Snow data were used to establish spatially-explicit interannual variability in snowpack SWE. East of the Continental Divide, snowpack SWE was lower but also less variable than west of the Divide. Analysis of snowpacks suggest downward trends in SWE, a reduction in snow cover duration, and earlier melt-out dates during the past 52 years. Concurrently, high elevation forests and treelines have responded with increased growth. However, the 80 year record of snow from 3 NRCS snow courses reflects a strong influence from the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, resulting in 20-30 year phases of greater or lesser mean SWE. Coupled with the fine-resolution spatial snow data from the two watersheds, the ecological consequences of changes in snowpack can be empirically assessed at a habitat patch scale. This will be required because snow distribution models have had varied success in simulating snowpack accumulation/ablation dynamics in these mountain watersheds, ranging from R2=0.38 for individual south-facing forested snow survey routes to R2=0.95 when aggregated to the watershed scale. Key ecological responses to snowpack changes occur below the watershed scale, such as snow-mediated expansion of forest into subalpine meadows, making continued spatially-explicit snow surveys a necessity.

Montana↗

USGS2022

Multiproxy paleolimnological records provide evidence for a shift to a new ecosystem state in the Northern Great Plains, USA

Wetlands in the Prairie Pothole Region of the North American Northern Great Plains perform multiple ecosystem services and are biodiversity hotspots. However, climatological changes can result in sudden shifts in these important ecosystems. For example, marked increases in precipitation in the last few decades have resulted in a widespread shift in wetlands across the Prairie Pothole Region to a new ecohydrological state. We used multiproxy analyses (diatom community composition and invertebrate stable isotopes) of 210 Pb-dated sediment cores from two adjacent, but morphologically and hydrologically different, prairie-pothole wetlands to assess the effects of hydroclimatic variability on these wetland ecosystems. Our results provide evidence that the recent ecohydrological shift in the region's wetlands is unprecedented over the past ca. 178 yr. Oxygen stable isotopes in chironomid head capsules provide a record of paleohydrology changes. The most recent sediments (i.e., those deposited after the state shift) from both wetlands revealed novel changes in diatom communities that differed greatly from earlier community compositions. In addition, a depleted signal in deuterium and 13 C carbon stable isotopes observed in chironomid head capsules and Daphnia ephippia, respectively, after 1993 is likely related to an increase in methane production in these wetlands. Our study highlights the importance of considering basin morphometry including whether a wetland has an overflow point, and multiple biological indicators to study climate-change influences on freshwater ecosystems. Research using these techniques can lead to an improved understanding of recent ecosystem shifts, an understanding that will be essential for future climate-change adaptation and mitigation in this ecologically important region.

North Dakota↗

USGS2003

Future coral reef habitat marginality: Temporal and spatial effects of climate change in the Pacific basin

Marginal reef habitats are regarded as regions where coral reefs and coral communities reflect the effects of steady-state or long-term average environmental limitations. We used classifications based on this concept with predicted time-variant conditions of future climate to develop a scenario for the evolution of future marginality. Model results based on a conservative scenario of atmospheric CO2 increase were used to examine changes in sea surface temperature and aragonite saturation state over the Pacific Ocean basin until 2069. Results of the projections indicated that essentially all reef locations are likely to become marginal with respect to aragonite saturation state. Significant areas, including some with the highest biodiversity, are expected to experience high-temperature regimes that may be marginal, and additional areas will enter the borderline high temperature range that have experienced significant ENSO-related bleaching in the recent past. The positive effects of warming in areas that are presently marginal in terms of low temperature were limited. Conditions of the late 21st century do not lie outside the ranges in which present-day marginal reef systems occur. Adaptive and acclimative capabilities of organisms and communities will be critical in determining the future of coral reef ecosystems.

Conference Paper↗

USGS2014

Historical and contemporary imagery to assess ecosystem change on the Arctic coastal plain of northern Alaska

The Arctic Coastal Plain of northern Alaska is a complex landscape of lakes, streams, and wetlands scattered across low-relief tundra that is underlain by permafrost. This region of the Arctic has experienced a warming trend over the past three decades leading to thawing of on-shore permafrost and the disappearance of sea ice at unprecedented rates. The U.S. Geological Survey’s (USGS) Changing Arctic Ecosystems (CAE) research initiative was developed to investigate and forecast these rapid changes in the physical environment of the Arctic, and the associated changes to wildlife populations, in order to inform key management decisions by the U.S. Department of the Interior and other agencies. Forecasting future wildlife responses to changes in the Arctic can benefit greatly from historical records that inform what changes have already occurred. Several Arctic wildlife and plant species have already responded to climatic and physical changes to the Arctic Coastal Plain of northern Alaska. Thus, we located historical aerial imagery to improve our understanding of recent habitat changes and the associated response to such changes by wildlife populations. In this report, we describe and make available a set of 61 georectified aerial images of the Arctic Coastal Plain (taken from 1948 to 2010) that were obtained by the USGS to inform research objectives of the USGS CAE Initiative. Here, we describe the origins, metadata, and public availability of these images that were obtained within four main study areas on the Arctic Coastal Plain: Teshekpuk Lake Special Area, Chipp River, the Colville River Delta, and locations along the Dalton Highway Corridor between the Brooks Range and Deadhorse. We also provide general descriptions of observable changes to the geomorphology of landscapes that are apparent by comparing historical and contemporary images. These landscape changes include altered river corridors, lake drying, coastal erosion, and new vegetation communities. All original and georectified images and metadata are available through the USGS Alaska Science Center Portal (search under ‘Project Name’ using title of this report) or by contacting ascweb@usgs.gov .

Alaska↗