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Simulation and assessment of groundwater flow and groundwater and surface-water exchanges in lakes of the northeast Twin Cities Metropolitan Area, Minnesota, 2003 through 2013: Chapter B of Water levels and groundwater and surface-water exchanges in lakes of the northeast Twin Cities Metropolitan Area, Minnesota, 2002 through 2015

Water levels during 2003 through 2013 were less than mean water levels for the period 1925–2013 for several lakes in the northeast Twin Cities Metropolitan Area in Minnesota. Previous periods of low lake-water levels generally were correlated with periods with less than mean precipitation. Increases in groundwater withdrawals and land-use changes have brought into question whether or not recent (2003–13) lake-water-level declines are solely caused by decreases in precipitation. A thorough understanding of groundwater and surface-water exchanges was needed to assess the effect of water-management decisions on lake-water levels. To address this need, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Metropolitan Council and the Minnesota Department of Health, developed and calibrated a three-dimensional, steady-state groundwater-flow model representing 2003–13 mean hydrologic conditions to assess groundwater and lake-water exchanges, and the effects of groundwater withdrawals and precipitation on water levels of 96 lakes in the northeast Twin Cities Metropolitan Area. Lake-water budgets for the calibrated groundwater-flow model indicated that groundwater is flowing into lakes in the northeast Twin Cities Metropolitan Area and lakes are providing water to underlying aquifers. Lake-water outflow to the simulated groundwater system was a major outflow component for Big Marine Lake, Lake Elmo, Snail Lake, and White Bear Lake, accounting for 45 to 64 percent of the total outflows from the lakes. Evaporation and transpiration from the lake surface ranged from 19 to 52 percent of the total outflow from the four lakes. Groundwater withdrawals and precipitation were varied from the 2003‒13 mean values used in the calibrated model (30-percent changes in groundwater withdrawals and 5-percent changes in precipitation) for hypothetical scenarios to assess the effects of groundwater withdrawals and precipitation on water budgets and levels in Big Marine Lake, Snail Lake, and White Bear Lake. Simulated lake-water levels and budgets for Snail Lake and White Bear Lake were affected by 30-percent changes in groundwater withdrawals and 5-percent changes in precipitation in the area, whereas the water level in Big Marine Lake was mainly affected by 5-percent precipitation changes. The effects of groundwater withdrawals on the lake-water levels depend on the number of wells and amount of withdrawals from wells near the lakes. Although lake-water levels are sensitive to precipitation changes, increases in groundwater withdrawals during dry periods exacerbate lake-water level declines. The calibrated, groundwater-flow model is a tool that water-resources managers can use to address future water management issues in the northeast Twin Cities Metropolitan Area.

Minnesota

Groundwater-flow model of the northern High Plains aquifer in Colorado, Kansas, Nebraska, South Dakota, and Wyoming

The High Plains aquifer is a nationally important water resource underlying about 175,000 square miles in parts of eight states: Colorado, Kansas, Oklahoma, Nebraska, New Mexico, South Dakota, Texas, and Wyoming. Droughts across much of the Northern High Plains from 2001 to 2007 have combined with recent (2004) legislative mandates to elevate concerns regarding future availability of groundwater and the need for additional information to support science-based water-resource management. To address these needs, the U.S. Geological Survey began the High Plains Groundwater Availability Study to provide a tool for water-resource managers and other stakeholders to assess the status and availability of groundwater resources. A transient groundwater-flow model was constructed using the U.S. Geological Survey modular three-dimensional finite-difference groundwater-flow model with Newton-Rhapson solver (MODFLOW–NWT). The model uses an orthogonal grid of 565 rows and 795 columns, and each grid cell measures 3,281 feet per side, with one variably thick vertical layer, simulated as unconfined. Groundwater flow was simulated for two distinct periods: (1) the period before substantial groundwater withdrawals, or before about 1940, and (2) the period of increasing groundwater withdrawals from May 1940 through April 2009. A soil-water-balance model was used to estimate recharge from precipitation and groundwater withdrawals for irrigation. The soil-water-balance model uses spatially distributed soil and landscape properties with daily weather data and estimated historical land-cover maps to calculate spatial and temporal variations in potential recharge. Mean annual recharge estimated for 1940–49, early in the history of groundwater development, and 2000–2009, late in the history of groundwater development, was 3.3 and 3.5 inches per year, respectively. Primary model calibration was completed using statistical techniques through parameter estimation using the parameter estimation suite of software with Tikhonov regularization. Calibration targets for the groundwater model included 343,067 groundwater levels measured in wells and 10,820 estimated monthly stream base flows at streamgages. A total of 1,312 parameters were adjusted during calibration to improve the match between calibration targets and simulated equivalents. Comparison of calibration targets to simulated equivalents indicated that, at the regional scale, the model correctly reproduced groundwater levels and stream base flows for 1940–2009. This comparison indicates that the model can be used to examine the likely response of the aquifer system to potential future stresses. Mean calibrated recharge for 1940–49 and 2000–2009 was smaller than that estimated with the soil-water-balance model. This indicated that although the general spatial patterns of recharge estimated with the soil-water-balance model were approximately correct at the regional scale of the Northern High Plains aquifer, the soil-water-balance model had overestimated recharge, and adjustments were needed to decrease recharge to improve the match of the groundwater model to calibration targets. The largest components of the simulated groundwater budgets were recharge from precipitation, recharge from canal seepage, outflows to evapotranspiration, and outflows to stream base flow. Simulated outflows to irrigation wells increased from 7 percent of total outflows in 1940–49 to 38 percent of 1970–79 total outflows and 49 percent of 2000–2009 total outflows.

Colorado, Kansas, Nebraska, South Dakota, Wyoming

Development and evaluation of a reservoir model for the Chain of Lakes in Illinois

Forecasts of flows entering and leaving the Chain of Lakes reservoir on the Fox River in northeastern Illinois are critical information to water-resource managers who determine the optimal operation of the dam at McHenry, Illinois, to help minimize damages to property and loss of life because of flooding on the Fox River. In 2014, the U.S. Geological Survey; the Illinois Department of Natural Resources, Office of Water Resources; and National Weather Service, North Central River Forecast Center began a cooperative study to develop a system to enable engineers and planners to simulate and communicate flows and to prepare proactively for precipitation events in near real time in the upper Fox River watershed. The purpose of this report is to document the development and evaluation of the Chain of Lakes reservoir model developed in this study. The reservoir model for the Chain of Lakes was developed using the Hydrologic Engineering Center–Reservoir System Simulation program. Because of the complex relation between the dam headwater and reservoir pool elevations, the reservoir model uses a linear regression model that relates dam headwater elevation to reservoir pool elevation. The linear regression model was developed using 17 U.S. Geological Survey streamflow measurements, along with the gage height in the reservoir pool and the gage height at the dam headwater. The Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficients for all three linear regression model variables ranged from 0.90 to 0.98. The reservoir model performance was evaluated by graphically comparing simulated and observed reservoir pool elevation time series during nine periods of high pool elevation. In addition, the peak elevations during these time periods were graphically compared to the closest-in-time observed pool elevation peak. The mean difference in the simulated and observed peak elevations was -0.03 feet, with a standard deviation of 0.19 feet. The Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient for peak prediction was calculated as 0.94. Evaluation of the model based on accuracy of peak prediction and the ability to simulate an elevation time series showed the performance of the model was satisfactory.

Illinois

Hydrogeologic framework and hydrologic conditions of the Piney Point aquifer in Virginia

The Piney Point aquifer in Virginia is newly described and delineated as being composed of six geologic units, in a study conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Virginia Department of Environmental Quality (VA DEQ). The eastward-dipping geologic units include, in stratigraphically ascending order, the sand of the Nanjemoy Formation Woodstock Member, interbedded limestone and sand of the Piney Point Formation, silty and clayey sand of the Gosport Formation equivalent sediments, silty sand of the Oligocene-age sediments, silty fine-grained sand of the Old Church Formation, and silty sand of the Calvert Formation, Newport News unit and basal Plum Point Member. Identification of geologic units is based on typical sediment lithologies of geologic formations. Fine-grained sediments that compose confining units positioned immediately above and below the Piney Point aquifer are also described. The Piney Point aquifer is one of several confined aquifers within the Virginia Coastal Plain and includes a highly porous and solution-channeled indurated limestone within the Piney Point Formation from which withdrawals are made. The limestone is relatively continuous laterally across central parts of the Northern Neck, Middle Peninsula, and York-James Peninsula. Other geologic units are of variable extent. The configurations of most of the geologic units are further affected by newly identified faults that are aligned radially from the Chesapeake Bay impact crater and create constrictions or barriers to groundwater flow. Some geologic units are also truncated beneath the lower Rappahannock River by a resurge channel associated with the impact crater. Groundwater withdrawals from the Piney Point aquifer increased from approximately 1 million gallons per day (Mgal/d) during 1900 to 7.35 Mgal/d during 2004. As a result, a water-level cone of depression in James City and northern York Counties was estimated to be as low as 70 feet (ft) below the National Geodetic Vertical Datum of 1929 (NGVD 29) by 2005. Withdrawals decreased to 5.01 Mgal/d by 2009 as withdrawals were shifted toward other sources, and by 2015 water levels had recovered to approximately 50 ft below NGVD 29. The mean estimated transmissivity of the Piney Point aquifer in York and James City Counties is 16,300 feet squared per day (ft 2 /d), but farther north it is only 925 ft 2 /d. The mean well specific capacity in York and James City Counties is 11.4 gallons per minute per foot (gal/min/ft). Farther north in Virginia, mean specific capacity is only 2.26 gal/min/ft, and in Maryland it is 0.99 gal/min/ft. The northward decrease in specific capacity probably reflects the northward decrease in transmissivity, which results from poor development of the solution-channeled limestone. An aquifer test in northern York County induced vertical leakage to the solution-channeled limestone from overlying silty sand and a change in response of the aquifer to pumping from a single layer to two layers. Transmissivity of the limestone of approximately 19,800 ft 2 /d was distinguished from the silty sand of approximately 2,500 ft 2 /d. Most of the water in the Piney Point aquifer is slightly alkaline with moderate concentrations primarily of sodium and bicarbonate that are slightly undersaturated with respect to calcite. Iron concentrations are generally less than 0.3 milligrams per liter (mg/L). Mixing of freshwater with seawater has elevated chloride concentrations to the southeast to as much as 7,120 mg/L. Information on the Piney Point aquifer can benefit water-resource management in siting production wells, predicting likely well yield, and anticipating water-level response to withdrawals. Models that vertically discretize individual geologic units can potentially be used to evaluate groundwater flow in greater detail by representing lateral flow and vertical leakage among the geologic units. Because groundwater withdrawals are made primarily from the limestone and sand of the Piney Point Formation, the VA DEQ has considered regarding the limestone and sand singly as a regulated aquifer apart from the other geologic units. Under current policy in Virginia, if only the limestone and sand were regarded as a regulated aquifer, a greater amount of drawdown would be allowed than is allowed for the Piney Point aquifer consisting of six geologic units. Some production wells intercept multiple geologic units, and the units can undergo water-level decline and vertical leakage induced by pumping from the limestone and sand. Whether the other geologic units are to be regarded as regulated aquifers is an additional consideration for the VA DEQ.

Virginia

Low-flow frequency and flow-duration characteristics of selected streams in Alabama through March 2014

Low-flow statistics are needed by water-resource engineers, planners, and managers to protect and manage the water resources of Alabama. The accuracy of these statistics is influenced by such factors as length of record and specific hydrologic conditions measured in those records. As such, it is generally recommended that flow statistics be updated about every 10 years to provide improved and representative low-flow characteristics. The previous investigation of low-flow characteristics for Alabama included data through September 1990. Since that time, Alabama has experienced several historic droughts highlighting the need to update the low-flow characteristics at U.S. Geological Survey streamgaging stations. Consequently, this investigation was undertaken in cooperation with a number of State and local agencies to update low-flow frequency and flow-duration statistics at 210 continuous-record streamgaging stations in Alabama and 67 stations from basins that are shared with surrounding States. The flow characteristics were computed on the basis of available data through March 2014.

Alabama

Simulation of daily streamflow for 12 river basins in western Iowa using the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Iowa Department of Natural Resources, constructed Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System models to estimate daily streamflow for 12 river basins in western Iowa that drain into the Missouri River. The Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System is a deterministic, distributed-parameter, physical-process-based modeling system developed to evaluate the response of streamflow and general drainage basin hydrology to various combinations of climate and land use. Calibration periods for each basin varied depending on the period of record available for daily mean streamflow measurements at U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gaging stations. A geographic information system tool was used to delineate each basin and estimate initial values for model parameters based on basin physical and geographical features. A U.S. Geological Survey automatic calibration tool that uses a shuffled complex evolution algorithm was used for initial calibration, and then manual modifications were made to parameter values to complete the calibration of each basin model. The main objective of the calibration was to match daily discharge values of simulated streamflow to measured daily discharge values. The Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System model was calibrated at 42 sites located in the 12 river basins in western Iowa. The accuracy of the simulated daily streamflow values at the 42 calibration sites varied by river and by site. The models were satisfactory at 36 of the sites based on statistical results. Unsatisfactory performance at the six other sites can be attributed to several factors: (1) low flow, no flow, and flashy flow conditions in headwater subbasins having a small drainage area; (2) poor representation of the groundwater and storage components of flow within a basin; (3) lack of accounting for basin withdrawals and water use; and (4) limited availability and accuracy of meteorological input data. The Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System models of 12 river basins in western Iowa will provide water-resource managers with a consistent and documented method for estimating streamflow at ungaged sites and aid in environmental studies, hydraulic design, water management, and water-quality projects.

Iowa

Temporal trends in water-quality constituent concentrations and annual loads of chemical constituents in Michigan watersheds, 1998–2013

In 1998, the Michigan Department of Environmental Quality and the U.S. Geological Survey began the Water Chemistry Monitoring Program for select streams in the State of Michigan. Objectives of this program were to provide assistance with (1) statewide water-quality assessments, (2) the National Pollutant Discharge Elimination System permitting process, and (3) water-resource management decisions. As part of this program, water-quality data collected from 1998 to 2013 were analyzed to identify potential trends for select constituents that were sampled. Sixteen water-quality constituents were analyzed at 32 stations throughout Michigan. Trend analysis on the various water-quality data was done using either the uncensored Seasonal Kendall test or through Tobit regression. In total, 79 trends were detected in the constituents analyzed for 32 river stations sampled for the study period—53 downward trends and 26 upward trends were detected. The most prevalent trend detected throughout the State was for ammonia, with 11 downward trends and 1 upward trend estimated. In addition to trends, constituent loads were estimated for 31 stations from 2002 to 2013 for stations that were sampled 12 times per year. Loads were computed using the Autobeale load computation program, which used the Beale ratio estimator approach to estimate an annual load. Constituent loads were the largest in large watershed streams with the highest annual flows such as the Saginaw and Grand Rivers. Likewise, constituent loads were the smallest in smaller tributaries that were sampled as part of this program such as the Boardman and Thunder Bay Rivers.

Michigan

Hydrogeologic setting, conceptual groundwater flow system, and hydrologic conditions 1995–2010 in Florida and parts of Georgia, Alabama, and South Carolina

The hydrogeologic setting and groundwater flow system in Florida and parts of Georgia, Alabama, and South Carolina is dominated by the highly transmissive Floridan aquifer system. This principal aquifer is a vital source of freshwater for public and domestic supply, as well as for industrial and agricultural uses throughout the southeastern United States. Population growth, increased tourism, and increased agricultural production have led to increased demand on groundwater from the Floridan aquifer system, particularly since 1950. The response of the Floridan aquifer system to these stresses often poses regional challenges for water-resource management that commonly transcend political or jurisdictional boundaries. To help water-resource managers address these regional challenges, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Water Availability and Use Science Program began assessing groundwater availability of the Floridan aquifer system in 2009. The current conceptual groundwater flow system was developed for the Floridan aquifer system and adjacent systems partly on the basis of previously published USGS Regional Aquifer-System Analysis (RASA) studies, specifically many of the potentiometric maps and the modeling efforts in these studies. The Floridan aquifer system extent was divided into eight hydrogeologically distinct subregional groundwater basins delineated on the basis of the estimated predevelopment (circa 1880s) potentiometric surface: (1) Panhandle, (2) Dougherty Plain-Apalachicola, (3) Thomasville-Tallahassee, (4) Southeast Georgia-Northeast Florida-South South Carolina, (5) Suwannee, (6) West-central Florida, (7) East-central Florida, and (8) South Florida. The use of these subregions allows for a more detailed analysis of the individual basins and the groundwater flow system as a whole. The hydrologic conditions and associated groundwater budget were updated relative to previous RASA studies to include additional data collected since the 1980s and to reflect the entire groundwater flow system, including the surficial, intermediate, and Floridan aquifer systems for a contemporary period (1995–2010). Inflow to the groundwater flow system of 33,700 million gallons per day (Mgal/d) was assumed to be exclusively from net recharge (precipitation minus evapotranspiration and surface runoff). Outflow from the groundwater flow system included spring discharge (7,700 Mgal/d) and groundwater withdrawals (5,200 Mgal/d). Estimates for all components of the groundwater system were not possible because of large uncertainties associated with internal leakage, coastal discharge, and discharge to streams and lakes. A numerical modeling analysis is required to improve this hydrologic budget calculation and to forecast future changes in groundwater levels and aquifer storage caused by groundwater withdrawals, land-use change, and the effects of climate variability and change.

Alabama, Florida, Georgia, South Carolina

Trends in water quality of selected streams and reservoirs used for water supply in the Triangle area of North Carolina, 1989–2013

As the population of the Triangle area in central North Carolina increases, the demand for good quality drinking water from streams and lakes within the upper Neuse and upper Cape Fear River Basins also increases. The Triangle area includes Raleigh, Cary, Research Triangle Park, Durham, Chapel Hill, and the surrounding communities. The U.S. Geological Survey examined temporal trends in water quality for 13 stream and 8 reservoir sites in the two basins on the basis of data collected during 1989–2013. Trends were analyzed using a fitted time-series model that accommodated for shifting trends and variations in streamflow at multiple time scales. Seventeen water-quality properties and constituents were evaluated, including specific conductance and major ions, nutrients, and organic carbon. Suspended solids and suspended sediment were examined at stream sites; chlorophyll a and Secchi transparency were examined at lake sites. The investigation identified considerable changes in population, land cover, streamflow, and selected water-quality characteristics in the study area over the 25-year period. Specific conductance and concentrations of calcium, magnesium, potassium, sodium, and chloride tended to increase throughout the study area. Area-wide increases were also observed for organic nitrogen. Trends for other water-quality constituents varied on a more site-specific basis because of local watershed influences such as changes to wastewater-treatment processes and substantial shifts from rural to urban land use. Water quality is influenced by multiple, often confounding factors, and thus may change in a non-uniform manner over time. Long-term monitoring is critical for tracking these trends and ensuring resiliency of water supplies for the future. Results from this study may promote the understanding of water-quality response to a growing population and land-cover changes and can assist water-resource managers in the Triangle area in tracking progress toward water-quality goals.

North Carolina

Estimated use of water in the Cumberland River watershed in 2010 and projections of public-supply water use to 2040

The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE), Nashville District, is conducting ongoing water-supply analyses of USACE reservoirs in the Cumberland River watershed to identify areas where potential water-resources issues may arise in the future. To assist the USACE in their efforts, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the USACE, collected and analyzed water-use data to estimate public-supply, self-supplied industrial, irrigation, and thermoelectric water use for 2010 and to project water demand to 2040 for the Cumberland River watershed area. Estimates of water use for public supply were projected in 10-year increments through 2040 and were based on 2010 public water-supply data and population projections for 2020 to 2040. Additionally, estimates of consumptive use, wastewater releases, and thermoelectric power and industrial return flows were calculated. All estimates are presented for the entire watershed and for the 10 reservoir catchment areas (RCAs) within the watershed. Estimated water withdrawals in the Cumberland River watershed during 2010 averaged 3,456.23 million gallons per day (Mgal/d) of freshwater for offstream use. Return flow was estimated to be 3,370.08 Mgal/d, or 98 percent of the water withdrawn during 2010. Total consumptive use accounts for the remaining 2 percent, or 86.2 Mgal/d. Estimates of water withdrawals by source indicate that withdrawals from surface water during 2010 accounted for more than 99 percent of the total withdrawals, or 3,437.90 Mgal/d. Total groundwater withdrawals during 2010 were 18.33 Mgal/d, or less than 1 percent of the total withdrawals. During 2010, withdrawals by category were estimated as follows: thermoelectric power, 3,051.12 Mgal/d; public supply, 360.00 Mgal/d; industrial, 31.5 Mgal/d; and irrigation, 13.6 Mgal/d. Return flows were estimated as thermoelectric power, 3,051.06 Mgal/d, and industrial and public supply, 319.02 Mgal/d. Consumptive use was estimated as thermoelectric power, 0.06 Mgal/d; industrial and public supply, 72.5 Mgal/d; and irrigation, 13.6 Mgal/d. By 2040, the public supply of raw and (or) finished water to meet demand for the 10 RCAs is projected to increase 48 percent to 532.51 Mgal/d. This projected increase includes an increase from 51.5 to 72.5 Mgal/d, or 41 percent, in the Barkley RCA. The combined total water demand for the Cheatham, J. Percy Priest, and Old Hickory RCAs is projected to increase from 224.08 to 359.58 Mgal/d, or 61 percent. The combined total water demand for the Center Hill, Cordell Hull, and Dale Hollow RCAs is projected to increase from 31.7 to 43.0 Mgal/d, or 36 percent. The combined total water demand for the Martins Fork, Laurel, and Wolf Creek RCAs is projected to increase from 52.8 to 57.4 Mgal/d, or 9 percent. The only RCA in the watershed with a projected decrease in water demand is Martins Fork.

Kentucky, Tennessee, Virginia

The Connecticut Streamflow and Sustainable Water Use Estimator—A decision-support tool to estimate water availability at ungaged stream locations in Connecticut

Freshwater streams in Connecticut are subject to many competing demands, including public water supply; agricultural, commercial, and industrial water use; and ecosystem and habitat needs. In recent years, drought has further stressed Connecticut’s water resources. To sustainably allocate and manage water resources among these competing uses, Federal, State, and local water-resource managers require data and modeling tools to estimate the water availability at a variety of temporal and spatial scales for planning purposes. The Connecticut Streamflow and Sustainable Water Use Estimator (CT SSWUE), developed by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Connecticut Department of Energy and Environmental Protection, is a decision-support tool for estimating daily unaltered streamflow and sustainable water use at ungaged sites in Connecticut. The CT SSWUE estimates unaltered daily mean streamflow and water-use-adjusted streamflow for the period from October 1, 1960, to September 30, 2015, and the monthly sustainable net withdrawal at ungaged sites in Connecticut. Unaltered streamflow is the estimated daily mean streamflow in a drainage basin in the absence of any water withdrawals or wastewater discharges and with minimal human development. Sustainable net withdrawal is the maximum net withdrawal (withdrawal minus wastewater discharges) that can be drawn from a basin without critically depleting the water available through natural streamflow patterns. Sustainable net withdrawal is defined for this study as the difference between the unaltered daily mean streamflow and a user-defined target minimum streamflow. Weighted least squares and Tobit regression techniques were used to develop equations for estimating streamflow at ungaged sites at 19 streamflow quantiles with exceedance probabilities ranging from 0.005 to 99.995 percent. Regressions were based on streamflow quantiles and basin characteristics from 36 reference streamgages in and around Connecticut. Four basin characteristics—drainage area, mean of the soil permeability, mean of the average annual precipitation, and ratio of the length of streams that overlay sand and gravel deposits to the total length of streams in the basin—are used as explanatory variables in the equations. At an ungaged site, interpolation between the streamflow quantiles estimated from the regression equations produces a continuous flow-duration curve. A time series of daily mean streamflow at an ungaged site is then estimated by assuming that for each day, the streamflow quantile occurs on the same date at both a reference streamgage and the ungaged site. In a remove-one cross validation, estimated unaltered daily mean streamflow agreed well with observed values at reference streamgages, with a few exceptions. Nash Sutcliffe efficiency ranged from −0.43 to 0.97 with a median value of 0.88. The normalized root-mean-square error ranged from 16.6 to 120.4 percent with a median value of 34.5 percent. An empirical method for estimating 95-percent prediction intervals for unaltered daily and monthly mean streamflow was developed and tested by using the cross-validation data. Prediction intervals for unaltered daily mean streamflow at the cross-validation reference streamgages performed well in most cases. Gaged streamflow values from the cross-validation data fell within the prediction intervals a median 96.6 percent of the time for daily mean time series and 93.9 percent of the time for monthly mean time series. The CT SSWUE computes water-use-adjusted streamflow using spatially referenced water-use information provided by the Connecticut Department of Energy and Environmental Protection. Available water-use information included permitted and registered water withdrawals and permitted wastewater discharges during 1998 to 2015 for the Thames River Basin and central coastal drainage basins. Water-use information was incorporated into the U.S. Geological Survey StreamStats web application for Connecticut and can be used for computing water-use-adjusted streamflow and sustainable net withdrawal at selected points of interest. Altered daily streamflow is computed by applying average daily withdrawals and wastewater discharges to the water balance equation. Average daily surface water withdrawals and wastewater discharges are applied directly to the daily water balance equation. Time-lagged alterations on streamflow from groundwater withdrawals or wastewater discharges are estimated by using a response-coefficient method developed from results of previously published, calibrated groundwater models.

Connecticut

Assessing water quality from highway runoff at selected sites in North Carolina with the Stochastic Empirical Loading and Dilution Model (SELDM)

In 2015, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) entered into a cooperative agreement with the North Carolina Department of Transportation (NCDOT) to develop a North Carolina-enhanced variation of the national Stochastic Empirical Loading and Dilution Model (SELDM) with available North Carolina-specific streamflow and water-quality data and to demonstrate use of the model by documenting selected simulation scenarios. The USGS developed the national SELDM in cooperation with the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) to provide the tools and techniques necessary for performing stormwater-quality simulations. SELDM uses a stochastic mass-balance approach to estimate combinations of flows, concentrations, and loads of stormwater constituents from the site of interest (often a highway catchment; nonhighway areas, such as a large impervious area at a shopping center complex, also can be used) and the basin upstream from the stormwater outfall to assess the risk for adverse effects of runoff. SELDM also can be used to simulate the effectiveness of volume reduction, hydrograph extension, and water-quality concentration reductions by stormwater best management practices (BMPs), which are designed to help mitigate the effects of runoff on receiving water bodies. Some of the statistical inputs needed for the North Carolina-enhanced SELDM were either calculated or augmented using local or regional data from North Carolina. Streamflow statistics used by SELDM were determined for 266 streamgages across North Carolina on the basis of data available through the 2015 water year. Recession ratio statistics used for triangular hydrographs were also developed for 30 streamgages across the State. The NCDOT identified previous research reports on highway-runoff and BMP studies in North Carolina for review of potential data addition to the national FHWA Highway-Runoff Database (HRDB). Following USGS review of these data, a total of 25,087 event mean concentration values and 1,140 storm events for 39 highway-runoff sites and 195 analytes were uploaded to the national HRDB from six North Carolina highway-runoff research reports and a recent USGS bridge deck runoff study. Using data for 27 streamgages in North Carolina, a total of 57 water-quality transport curves were developed for seven constituents for use in simulating water-quality conditions in the upstream basin. Performance data for three BMPs (bioretention, grass strip or swale, and wetland channel) from NCDOT research data were incorporated into the North Carolina-enhanced SELDM for volume-reduction statistics, including the effectiveness of treating four water-quality constituents (total suspended solids, total nitrogen, total phosphorus, nitrate plus nitrite) and turbidity. Simulations using the North Carolina-enhanced SELDM are presented for two hypothetical upstream basins in the Piedmont ecoregion and one hypothetical highway site to demonstrate how simulations can be used to provide risk-based information about potential effects of stormwater runoff on downstream water quality and the potential for mitigating those risks by using BMPs. The first group of simulations explores the stochastic variability in dilution factors (the ratio of the highway runoff to the total downstream stormflow) for a hypothetical Piedmont rural creek having drainage areas ranging from 1 to 100 square miles. The second group of simulations examines dilution factors based on variations in precipitation, streamflow, and recession ratios for two hypothetical Piedmont upstream basins (rural and urban) where the drainage area was held constant at 25 square miles. These simulations indicate the sensitivity of results to variations in each of the three variables. The third group of simulations examines the effects of varied concentrations in the upstream basin on water-quality conditions downstream from the highway crossing. Variations in upstream water-quality conditions for three constituents (suspended sediment concentration, total nitrogen, and total phosphorus) are based on water-quality transport curves selected from among the 57 curves developed as part of this study to represent low-, medium-, and high-concentration statistics. Simulations completed for this third group also examine the potential effects of grass swale and bioretention BMP treatment on total nitrogen and total phosphorus concentrations in highway runoff. The BMP performance data from the NCDOT research reports were applied in this group of simulations. The stochastic mass-balance approach used in SELDM analyses and simulations provides a strong tool for engineers and water-resource managers to use in exploring a wide range of possible hydrologic and water-quality inputs and their effects on downstream water quality. The results of this study can not only aid engineers and managers in planning for potential adverse effects of runoff at site-specific locations, they can also help the USGS and other Federal and State agencies with oversight responsibilities in stormwater-quality issues to continue gathering data on potential water-quality effects in receiving streams.

North Carolina

Summary of hydrologic testing, wellbore-flow data, and expanded water-level and water-quality data, 2011–15, Fort Irwin National Training Center, San Bernardino County, California

In view of the U.S. Army’s historical reliance and plans to increase demands on groundwater to supply its operations at Fort Irwin National Training Center (NTC), California, coupled with the continuing water-level declines in some developed groundwater basins as a result of pumping, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the U.S. Army, evaluated the water resources, including water quality and potential groundwater supply, of undeveloped basins in the NTC. Previous work in the three developed groundwater basins—Langford, Bicycle, and Irwin—provided information to support water-resources management of those basins. During 2009–12, the USGS installed 41 wells at the NTC; 34 wells were at 14 single- or multiple-well monitoring sites, and 7 wells were long-screen test wells. The majority of the wells were installed in previously undeveloped or minimally developed groundwater basins (Cronise, Red Pass, the Central Corridor area, Superior, Goldstone, and Nelson Basins). During 2012–15, the USGS tested hydrologic properties at 32 wells in 8 basins to help characterize the aquifer system. This report presents data and analyses from core samples; slug tests and single-well aquifer tests; coupled measurements of wellbore flow, water levels, and water-quality constituents; and results from two-dimensional numerical modeling. This information provides a basis for developing and constraining basin-scale hydrogeologic framework and groundwater-flow models to further evaluate water resources in each groundwater basin. Core samples were tested for vertical saturated hydraulic conductivity, physical properties, and particle-size distribution. Vertical saturated hydraulic conductivities of the cores ranged from less than 0.00001 to 18.13 feet per day, and porosities ranged from 0.15 to 0.56. These physical properties and particle-size analyses indicate the high degree of heterogeneity of the hydrogeologic deposits penetrated by the boreholes. Horizontal hydraulic conductivities estimated from slug tests in 22 monitoring wells in 6 basins (Cronise, Central Corridor area, Goldstone, Langford, Bicycle, and Nelson Basins) ranged from less than 0.1 to 40 feet per day. Results of the aquifer tests at six test wells in the Goldstone, Nelson, and Superior Basins indicate hydraulic conductivities ranged from 0.37 to 66 feet per day; associated transmissivity values ranged from 130 to 28,000 feet squared per day. Wellbore-flow data, collected from the six test wells under unpumped and pumped conditions, generally showed downward movement of water. Flow data collected under unpumped conditions indicate groundwater entered the well through the upper part of the screened interval and exited to aquifer zones in the lower part of the screened interval at rates ranging from 1 to 3 gallons per minute. Flow data collected under pumping conditions show increased flow downward in the test wells, indicating higher yields from deeper aquifers. Water levels, measured periodically between 2011 and 2015, remained stable during this period in the majority of the wells measured since 2011, except at two monitoring sites in developed basins (Bicycle and Langford). Vertical hydraulic gradients were generally low throughout the NTC, but ranged from –0.0003 to 0.27 during the summer of 2015. Multiple-well monitoring sites in Bicycle, Central Corridor area, Cronise, Goldstone, Nelson, and Superior Basins, had downward vertical gradients. Groundwater in wells in Nelson and Superior Basins, and wells BLA5, CCT1, and GOLD2 #2, was characterized as sodium-bicarbonate water, whereas groundwater from the remaining wells in Goldstone Basin was characterized as sodium-chloride water and Cronise Basin, and well LL04 was characterized by sodium-sulfate water. Total dissolved solids (TDS) ranged from 285 to 13,400 milligrams per liter (mg/L) TDS and chloride concentrations ranged from 19 to 1,030 mg/L chloride, with lowest concentrations of each in groundwater from Superior and Nelson Basins and highest concentrations in Cronise Basin. Nitrate plus nitrite as nitrogen ranged from less than 0.040 mg/L in groundwater from Cronise and Goldstone Basins to about 20 mg/L in Nelson Basin. Groundwater from wells in Nelson Basin was isotopically light, whereas groundwater samples from wells CRTH1, CRTH2, and LL04 were isotopically heavier and plotted along an evaporative trend line. No measurable tritium was detected in groundwater from 13 wells sampled in 2015, indicating that groundwater was recharged prior to 1952. Measured carbon-14 ( 14 C) activities in groundwater from four wells sampled in 2015 ranged from about 7.9 to 23.5 percent modern carbon and had apparent (uncorrected) ages of 11,970–20,980 years. Arsenic concentrations were above the maximum contaminant level of 10 micrograms per liter in groundwater from all wells, except those in Goldstone Basin and the two deepest wells in Langford Basin (LL04); likewise, fluoride concentrations were above the California maximum contaminant level of 2 mg/L in groundwater from most wells, except those in Goldstone and Superior Basins, the middle well in Langford Basin, middle and deep wells in two locations in Cronise Basin, and two wells in Nelson Basin. Wellbore flow was simulated for each well by using an integrated-flow analysis tool, AnalyzeHOLE, to evaluate aquifer properties and heterogeneity. Horizontal layers in the model (hydrogeologic units) were defined by lithostratigraphic‐geophysical units, interpreted from lithologic and geophysical logs for each well, and were adjusted during calibration. The saturated hydraulic conductivities derived from the calibrated simulations ranged from less than 0.01 to 60 feet per day in Nelson, Goldstone, and Superior Basins.

California

Geohydrology and water quality of the unconsolidated aquifers in the Enfield Creek Valley, town of Enfield, Tompkins County, New York

From 2013 to 2018, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Town of Enfield and the Tompkins County Planning Department, studied the unconsolidated aquifer in the Enfield Creek Valley in the town of Enfield, Tompkins County, New York. The valley will likely undergo future development as the population of Tompkins County increases and spreads out from the metropolitan areas. The Town of Enfield, Tompkins County, and the New York State Departments of Health and Environmental Conservation need geohydrologic information to help planners develop a more comprehensive approach to water-resource management in Tompkins County. The Enfield Creek Valley is underlain by an unconfined aquifer that consists of saturated alluvium, alluvial-fan deposits, and ice-contact (kame) sand and gravel. A confined aquifer of discontinuous ice-contact sand and gravel overlies bedrock. Depth to bedrock in the valley ranges from about 50 feet below land surface from just north of the Enfield Creek divide in the northern part of the aquifer to the confluence of Fivemile Creek to at least 140 feet below land surface from Fivemile Creek to where the valley orientation changes from north-south to northwest-southeast. Depth to bedrock is much shallower from the valley orientation change to the southeastern part of the aquifer because Enfield Creek has carved through overlying sediments into bedrock as the creek drops 450 feet into the Cayuga Inlet Valley. A small buried valley running south to north was identified within the Fivemile Creek drainage along the western edge of the town. However, the valley fill consists of glacial till, and no sand-and-gravel aquifer is present. The unconfined aquifers are recharged by direct infiltration of precipitation, surface runoff, and shallow subsurface flow from hillsides, and by seepage loss from streams overlying the aquifer. The confined aquifers are recharged mostly by precipitation that enters the adjacent valley walls, by groundwater flowing from bordering till or bedrock, and by flow from the bottom of the valley. Also, some recharge may be occurring where confining units are absent or from confining units with sediments of moderate permeability. Groundwater discharges to Enfield Creek, its tributaries, and wetlands and is lost through evapotranspiration from the water table or is withdrawn from domestic, commercial, and agricultural wells. About 700 individual well owners depend on the unconsolidated aquifers for their water supply. An estimated 28,300,000 gallons per year are withdrawn. Groundwater samples were collected from eight test wells drilled for this study, and six surface-water samples were collected from five locations on Enfield Creek. Of the eight wells sampled, two were finished in unconfined sand-and-gravel aquifers, two were finished in confined sand-and-gravel aquifers, and four were finished at or near the shale bedrock surface. Water quality in the study area generally met State and Federal drinking-water standards. However, some samples exceeded maximum contaminant levels for barium (25 percent of samples) and secondary maximum containment levels for chloride (25 percent), dissolved solids (25 percent of samples), iron (70 percent of samples), and manganese (75 percent of samples). Groundwater from 75 percent of the wells sampled for methane had concentrations greater than the Office of Surface Mining Reclamation and Enforcement recommended action level of 10 to 28 milligrams per liter. The two deepest wells sampled, TM1075 and TM1077, had the highest specific conductance, chloride, and sodium concentrations of all wells sampled. The chloride/bromide ratios of these samples suggest the source may represent a mixture of saline formation waters with shallow dilute groundwater and may receive recharge contribution from two tributaries overlying bedrock to the west and southwest of the aquifer. In general, the highest yields are from wells completed within about 50 feet below land surface, which may tap either type of aquifer.

New York

Characterization of surface-water and groundwater quality on the Fort Berthold Reservation, North Dakota, 2014–17

The Fort Berthold Reservation is in west-central North Dakota and home to the Three Affiliated Tribes. The primary water-resources concerns on the Fort Berthold Reservation are associated with the different types of land uses from agricultural activities and the rapid development of oil and gas resources in western North Dakota. The Three Affiliated Tribes Environmental Department identified the need for long-term water-quality monitoring throughout the Fort Berthold Reservation to better understand the potential effects on surface-water and groundwater quality and to determine if water quality is changing with time. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Three Affiliated Tribes, identified surface-water sites and groundwater wells that represent the water resources in major drainages and the most utilized aquifers on the reservation. A water-quality monitoring program was designed to address data gaps and provide consistent long-term data that can be used to identify potential effects on water quality. During 2014–17, the initial water-quality sampling efforts associated with this program were completed. The efforts provide a current (2019) characterization of water-quality conditions in surface water and groundwater and can assist in establishing a long-term water-quality monitoring program

North Dakota

Spatial and temporal patterns in streamflow, water chemistry, and aquatic macroinvertebrates of selected streams in Fairfax County, Virginia, 2007–18

Urbanization substantially alters the landscape in ways that can impact stream hydrology, water chemistry, and the health of aquatic communities. Stormwater best management practices (BMPs) are the primary tools used to mitigate the effects of urban stressors such as increased runoff, decreased baseflow, and increased nutrient and sediment transport. To date, Fairfax County Virginia’s stormwater management program has made substantial investments into the implementation of both structural and nonstructural BMPs aimed at restoring and protecting watersheds. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with Fairfax County, Virginia, established a long-term water-resources monitoring program to evaluate the watershed-scale effects of these investments. Monitoring began at 14 stations in 2007 and was expanded to 20 stations in 2013. This report utilized the first 10 years of data collection to (1) assess water quantity and quality, as well as ecological condition; (2) compute annual nutrient and sediment loads; and (3) evaluate trends in streamflow, water quality, and ecological condition. Efforts are underway to link the biotic and abiotic patterns described herein to watershed management practices as well as factors such as land use change, public works infrastructure, and climate. Hydrologic, chemical, and benthic macroinvertebrate community conditions in the streams monitored were similar to those observed in other studies of urban streams. Multidecadal trends in baseflow indices and runoff ratios at long-term Chesapeake Bay Non-tidal Network streamgages (CB-NTN) indicate a decrease in groundwater recharge and increase in storm runoff as a result of urbanization. Streamflow yields varied spatially with land cover, geology, and soil characteristics, whereas flashiness was positively related to impervious area. Dissolved oxygen typically was lowest in the Coastal Plain and across all Triassic Lowlands streams, and highest in the Piedmont. Dissolved oxygen concentrations generally were above Virginia’s minimum criterion of 4.0 milligrams per liter (mg/L), most violations occurred at Paul Spring Branch in the Coastal Plain during the warmest months of the year owing to increased chemical and biological oxygen demand. Typical pH values of the monitored streams centered on neutrality (pH = 7); however, diurnal fluctuations were most prevalent in the continuous pH data at Flatlick Branch (FLAT; a Triassic Lowlands station), as a result of increased photosynthesis catalyzed by phosphorus-rich geology. Specific conductance (SC) varied spatially owing to geology (highest at Triassic Lowlands stations) and anthropogenic disturbance (watersheds with high impervious land cover). Specific conductance typically was inversely related to streamflow except in winter months following deicing road salt applications, when values increased by several orders of magnitude. A significant increase in SC of about 2 percent per year was observed from the combined trend result of all monitoring stations over the 10-year period. Significant SC increases occurred at nearly all monitoring stations. Increasing trends were observed during winter and nonwinter months, which suggests that salts applied to deice roadways and other impervious surfaces are stored in the environment and released year-round. Suspended-sediment (SS) concentrations in monthly samples did not vary significantly between most stations, but typically were highest in the spring and lowest in the fall as a result of seasonal differences in streamflow and climate. Suspended-sediment yields ranged from 62 to 1,428 tons per square mile (ton/mi 2 ), with a median of 302 ton/mi 2 . Annual loads were greatest during the wettest water years (October 1-September 30; 2008, 2011, and 2014), with the greatest interannual variability occurring at Difficult Run above Fox Lake (DIFF) and South Fork Little Difficult Run (SFLIL). Suspended sediment was primarily composed of silts and clays; however, the proportion of sand in suspended sediment was related positively to streamflow. Cross-correlation analyses suggested the dominant sources of SS were streambank erosion and resuspension of in-channel material at DIFF and FLAT; whereas, upland sources and erosion of upper streambanks were more common at Dead Run (DEAD), Long Branch (LONG), and SFLIL. Median total phosphorus (TP) concentrations ranged from 0.016 to 0.077 mg/L, with a networkwide median of 0.022 mg/L, were highest in the warm season (April-September), and were composed primarily of dissolved phosphorous. Although TP concentrations were relatively low across the network, the highest concentrations were consistently at stations located in the Triassic Lowlands, owing to phosphorous-rich geology, and in the Coastal Plain, owing to the low-phosphorous sorptive capacity of those soils. A significant increase in TP concentration occurred in a few stations, but the combined trend results from all stations demonstrated a significant increase of about 4 percent per year. Networkwide increases were also observed in total dissolved phosphorus, orthophosphate, and total particulate phosphorus. The composition of TP shifted from dissolved to particulate as streamflow increased and for this reason loads primarily were composed of particulate phosphorous. Median annual TP loads were highest at FLAT and DEAD and ranged from 247 to 642 pounds per square mile (lbs/mi 2 ) networkwide. Interannual variability in phosphorous yields was apparent at most stations; the highest loading years were also the wettest years during the study period and coincident with the highest peak annual flows. Total nitrogen (TN) concentrations typically were low throughout the network with exceptions occurring at stations located in watersheds with a high density of septic infrastructure. Elevated TN concentrations also were observed in some watersheds without a high density of septic systems and may be attributable to geologic and soil properties that limit denitrification as well as other unknown anthropogenic inputs. Total nitrogen typically was dominated by nitrate during baseflows; however, the proportion of particulate nitrogen increased during stormflows. Total nitrogen yields were similar across stations, with medians ranging from about 3,600 to 6,300 lbs/mi 2 and were related to annual streamflow volume. Total nitrogen concentrations and flow-normalized concentrations decreased over the 10-year period at 7 stations, with median reductions of about 2.5 percent. Increasing trends were observed at the two stations with the highest median TN concentration (Captain Hickory Run and SFLIL, 3–5 mg/L), both watersheds contain a high density of septic infrastructure. The combined trend results from all stations revealed no trend in TN and a declining trend in nitrate of about 2 percent per year. Overall, benthic community metrics indicated that streams throughout Fairfax County were initially of poor health; however, many metrics show an improving trend (from poor to fair based on the Fairfax County Index of Biological Integrity [IBI]). Significant increasing trends in IBI occurred at the network-scale and at 4 individual stations; additionally, scores improved by at least 1 qualitative category (for example, poor to fair, fair to good) at 11 of the 14 stations between 2009 (the first year all 14 stations were sampled) and 2017. Changes in all metrics suggest that the biodiversity, function, and condition of streams in Fairfax County are improving, but some of these improvements are driven by increased diversity and percent composition of organisms that are tolerant of the urban environment.

Virginia

Precipitation-runoff processes in the Merced River Basin, Central California, with prospects for streamflow predictability, water years 1952–2013

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the California Department of Water Resources (DWR), has constructed a new spatially detailed Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) model for the Merced River Basin, California, which is a tributary of the San Joaquin River in California. Operated through an Object User Interface (OUI) with Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) and daily climate distribution preprocessing functionality, the model is calibrated primarily to simulate (and eventually, forecast) year-to-year variations of inflows to Lake McClure during the critical April–July snowmelt season. The model is intended to become part of a suite of methods used by DWR for estimating daily streamflow from the Merced River Basin, especially during the snowmelt season. This study describes the results of the application of an analysis tool that simulates responses to climate and land-use variations at a higher spatial resolution than previously available to DWR. A geographic information system was used to delineate the model domain, that is, areas draining to a single outlet at U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gaging station 11270900, Merced River below Merced Falls Dam, near Snell, CA (also known as California Data Exchange Center station MRC), and subdrainage areas, including four draining to internal gages used as calibration targets. Using this delineation, three contiguous subbasins were recognized and, along with the model domain and nested calibration targets, are the simulation units evaluated in this report. An auto-calibration tool, LUCA (Let Us CAlibrate), was used for each calibration node, from headwaters to basin outlet, and then parameters were manually adjusted to complete the calibration. The main objective was to match April–July snowmelt seasonal discharge values of simulated streamflow to observed (measured or reconstructed) discharge values. Calibration or validation periods used site-specific streamflows—mostly from October 1, 1988, through September 30, 2013—but differed according to the period-of-record available for the measurements collected at internal gages or reconstructed flows for the single outlet. The accuracy of the Merced PRMS streamflow simulations varied seasonally, as compared to observed values. Based on statistical results, the Merced PRMS model satisfactorily simulated snowmelt seasonal streamflows. April–July calibrations for all areas had small negative bias (not greater than 7 percent) and low relative error (less than 8 percent). Less satisfactory performance for other seasons was attributed to several factors: (1) high uncertainty in low or zero flows in summer and fall, (2) lack of accounting for basin withdrawals and anthropogenic water use, (3) unavailability and (or) inaccuracy of observed (measured) meteorological input data, and (4) uncertainty in reconstructed streamflow data. With some additional refinement, the Merced PRMS model may be used for forecasting seasonal and longer-term streamflow variations; evaluating forecasted and past climate and land cover changes; providing water-resource managers with a consistent and documented method for estimating streamflow at ungaged sites within the basin; and aiding environmental studies, hydraulic design, water management, and water-quality projects in the Merced River Basin.

California

Hydrogeology of the Susquehanna River valley-fill aquifer system in the towns of Conklin and Kirkwood, Broome County, New York

The hydrogeology of the Susquehanna River valley-fill aquifer system and adjacent areas in south-central Broome County, New York, was investigated in cooperation with the New York State Department of Environmental Conservation. The study area encompasses roughly 55.5 square miles and includes the towns of Conklin and Kirkwood. Multiple small, perhaps discontinuous, valley-fill aquifers of unknown extent and hydraulic interconnection underlie the Susquehanna River valley from easternmost Binghamton south to Riverside, New York, near the Pennsylvania border. The hydrogeologic framework of these aquifers is described in this report on the basis of existing descriptions of surficial materials, especially those related to deglaciation, and subsurface data extracted from well and boring logs. A compilation of surficial geology, the descriptions of the spatial distribution of confined and unconfined aquifers, hydrogeologic sections, and well locations is provided as an oversized map plate and in a U.S. Geological Survey data release. Residential households are one of the principal consumers of groundwater in the study area. Approximately half of these households are served by public water-supply systems that obtain water from wells, chiefly from highly productive but small and likely discontinuous surficial deposits of sand and gravel, while others obtain water from sand-and-gravel aquifers beneath till and (or) fine-grained lacustrine deposits, and a few from bedrock. Residents outside the public-supply service areas rely on private wells. In till-mantled upland areas, nearly all private wells tap bedrock. Water-resource potential is likely greatest north of Kirkwood Center, New York, where the valley is narrowest, and local aquifers are in thick stratified glacial deposits. Well yields are highest in this part of the valley, and the local aquifer system is likely replenished through induced infiltration from the Susquehanna River and numerous small tributaries. The area between Langdon and Kirkwood is filled with a mixture of stratified and unstratified glacial sediments and contains one high-yield well. This area likely has moderate water-resource potential, but limited well data make this difficult to verify. Well yields from suitable stratified glacial sediments generally decrease southward toward Riverside, New York. Characterizing potential groundwater resources is also helpful for prioritizing source-water-protection efforts. Water resources throughout New York are at risk of contamination from commercial and industrial surface activities. As in many valley areas throughout the Susquehanna River watershed in south-central New York, valley wells with depths greater than roughly 100 to 150 feet are susceptible to contamination by naturally occurring saltwater and methane. New York currently has a moratorium on hydraulic fracturing, but the study area is underlain by rocks suitable for unconventional methods of gas production that would likely be initiated if the moratorium were to be lifted.

New York