Search USGSSearch

SEARCH · Search USGS

Results for “Regional Environmental Change”

Search indexed USGS publications on groundwater, aquifers, geologic maps, mineral resources and earthquakes. Explore source records by subject and place.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 973 records · Page 54Linked to original sources

Tidal erosion and upstream sediment trapping modulate records of land-use change in a formerly glaciated New England estuary

Land clearing, river impoundments, and other human modifications to the upland landscape and within estuarine systems can drive coastal change at local to regional scales. However, as compared with mid-latitude coasts, the impacts of human modifications along sediment-starved formerly glaciated coastal landscapes are relatively understudied. To address this gap, we present a late-Holocene record of changing sediment accumulation rates and sediment sources from sediment cores collected across a tidal flat in the Merrimack River estuary (Mass., USA). We pair sedimentology, geochronology, bulk- and stable-isotope organic geochemistry, and hydrodynamic simulations with historical data to evaluate human and natural impacts on coastal sediment fluxes. During the 17th to 19th centuries, accumulation rates increased by an order of magnitude in the central tidal flat, likely in response to enhanced delivery of terrestrial sediment resulting from upland deforestation. However, the overall increase in accumulation (0.56–2.6 mm/year) within the estuary is subtle and spatially variable across the tidal flats because of coincident anthropogenic land clearing and dam building, upland sediment storage, and estuarine hydrodynamics. This study provides insight into the response of formerly glaciated fluvial-coastal systems to human modifications, and underscores the role of estuarine environmental conditions in modifying upland signals of land-use change.

Massachusetts, New Hampshire

Development and Evaluation of a Riparian Buffer Mapping Tool

Land use and land cover within riparian areas greatly affect the conditions of adjacent water features. In particular, riparian forests provide many environmental benefits, including nutrient uptake, bank stabilization, steam shading, sediment trapping, aquatic and terrestrial habitat, and stream organic matter. In contrast, residential and commercial development and associated transportation infrastructure increase pollutant and nutrient loading and change the hydrologic characteristics of the landscape, thereby affecting both water quality and habitat. Restoring riparian areas is a popular and cost effective restoration technique to improve and protect water quality. Recognizing this, the Chesapeake Executive Council committed to restoring 10,000 miles of riparian forest buffers throughout the Chesapeake Bay watershed by the year 2010. In 2006, the Chesapeake Executive Council further committed to 'using the best available...tools to identify areas where retention and expansion of forests is most needed to protect water quality'. The Chesapeake Bay watershed encompasses 64,000 square miles, including portions of six States and Washington, D.C. Therefore, the interpretation of remotely sensed imagery provides the only effective technique for comprehensively evaluating riparian forest protection and restoration opportunities throughout the watershed. Although 30-meter-resolution land use and land cover data have proved useful on a regional scale, they have not been equally successful at providing the detail required for local-scale assessment of riparian area characteristics. Use of high-resolution imagery (HRI) provides sufficient detail for local-scale assessments, although at greater cost owing to the cost of the imagery and the skill and time required to process the data. To facilitate the use of HRI for monitoring the extent of riparian forest buffers, the U.S. Forest Service and the U.S. Geological Survey Eastern Geographic Science Center funded the development of a prototype semiautomated image classification tool, RBMapper, that is designed for use by technicians with limited image processing training. This document provides an overview of the RBMapper tool, includes instructions on how to obtain the RBMapper tool and tutorial datasets, and contains a summary evaluation of the tool

Open-File Report

Robust geographical determinants of infection prevalence and a contrasting latitudinal diversity gradient for haemosporidian parasites in Western Palearctic birds

Identifying robust environmental predictors of infection probability is central to forecasting and mitigating the ongoing impacts of climate change on vector‐borne disease threats. We applied phylogenetic hierarchical models to a data set of 2,171 Western Palearctic individual birds from 47 species to determine how climate and landscape variation influence infection probability for three genera of haemosporidian blood parasites ( Haemoproteus , Leucocytozoon , and Plasmodium ). Our comparative models found compelling evidence that birds in areas with higher vegetation density (captured by the normalized difference vegetation index [NDVI]) had higher likelihoods of carrying parasite infection. Magnitudes of this relationship were remarkably similar across parasite genera considering that these parasites use different arthropod vectors and are widely presumed to be epidemiologically distinct. However, we also uncovered key differences among genera that highlighted complexities in their climate responses. In particular, prevalences of Haemoproteus and Plasmodium showed strong but contrasting relationships with winter temperatures, supporting mounting evidence that winter warming is a key environmental filter impacting the dynamics of host‐parasite interactions. Parasite phylogenetic community diversities demonstrated a clear but contrasting latitudinal gradient, with Haemoproteus diversity increasing towards the equator and Leucocytozoon diversity increasing towards the poles. Haemoproteus diversity also increased in regions with higher vegetation density, supporting our evidence that summer vegetation density is important for structuring the distributions of these parasites. Ongoing variation in winter temperatures and vegetation characteristics will probably have far‐reaching consequences for the transmission and spread of vector‐borne diseases.

Molecular Ecology

Invasive species in southern Nevada

Southern Nevada contains a wide range of topographies, elevations, and climactic zones emblematic of its position at the ecotone between the Mojave Desert, Great Basin, and Colorado Plateau ecoregions. These varied environmental conditions support a high degree of biological diversity (Chapter 1), but they also provide opportunities for a wide range of invasive species. In addition, the population center of the Las Vegas valley, and the agricultural area scattered throughout Clark, Lincoln, and Nye counties, all connected by a network of roads and highways, plus ephemeral and perennial watercourses, provide abundant opportunities for new invaders to be transported into and within southern Nevada (Brooks 2009; Brookes and Lair 2009). Invasive species are a concern for land managers because they can compete directly with native species (Brooks 2000; Chambers and others 2007; DeFlaco and others 2003, 2007; Mazzola and others 2010), change habitat conditions (Brooks and Esque 2002; Esque and others 2010; Miller and others 2011), and alter ecosystems properties (Brooks and Matchett 2006; Brooks and Pyke 2001; Evans and others 2001). Many invasive species have already established and spread to the point that they are now considered to pose significant problems in southern Nevada. However, there are likely many more than have wither not been transported to or colonized the region, or have established by for various reasons not spread or increased in abundance to the point where they have a significant impact. Land managers must understand both current and potential future problems posed by invasive species to appropriately prioritize management actions. This chapter addressed Sub-goal 1.2 in the SNAP Science Research Strategy (table 1.3; Turner and others 2009), which is to protect southern Nevada's ecosystems from the adverse impacts of invasive species. It provides a brief overview of the key concepts associated with the ecology and management of invasive species, and includes information relevant to all five strategic goals identified by the National Invasive Species Council: prevention, early detection and rapid response, control and management, restoration, and organization collaboration (National Invasive Species Council 2001, 2008). Restoration also is discussed in a broader context in Chapter 5 and 7. This chapter does not present a comprehensive review of all invasive species associated land management issues in southern Nevada, but rather uses key species of concern to illustrate invasion ecology concepts and management strategies. It is focused on terrestrial and aquatic plants and animals, and does not address potential invasive taxa from the other Kingdoms. The information presented herein is intended to provide a foundation upon which land management plans can be developed and project-level decisions can be made relative to the management of invasive species in southern Nevada.

Nevada

Understanding the uncertainty in global forest carbon turnover

The length of time that carbon remains in forest biomass is one of the largest uncertainties in the global carbon cycle, with both recent historical baselines and future responses to environmental change poorly constrained by available observations. In the absence of large-scale observations, models used for global assessments tend to fall back on simplified assumptions of the turnover rates of biomass and soil carbon pools. In this study, the biomass carbon turnover times calculated by an ensemble of contemporary terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs) are analysed to assess their current capability to accurately estimate biomass carbon turnover times in forests and how these times are anticipated to change in the future. Modelled baseline 1985–2014 global average forest biomass turnover times vary from 12.2 to 23.5 years between TBMs. TBM differences in phenological processes, which control allocation to, and turnover rate of, leaves and fine roots, are as important as tree mortality with regard to explaining the variation in total turnover among TBMs. The different governing mechanisms exhibited by each TBM result in a wide range of plausible turnover time projections for the end of the century. Based on these simulations, it is not possible to draw robust conclusions regarding likely future changes in turnover time, and thus biomass change, for different regions. Both spatial and temporal uncertainty in turnover time are strongly linked to model assumptions concerning plant functional type distributions and their controls. Thirteen model-based hypotheses of controls on turnover time are identified, along with recommendations for pragmatic steps to test them using existing and novel observations. Efforts to resolve uncertainty in turnover time, and thus its impacts on the future evolution of biomass carbon stocks across the world's forests, will need to address both mortality and establishment components of forest demography, as well as allocation of carbon to woody versus non-woody biomass growth.

Biogeosciences

Early and late Holocene glacial fluctuations and tephrostratigraphy, Cabin Lake, Alaska

Marked changes in sediment types deposited in Cabin Lake, near Cordova, Alaska, represent environmental shifts during the early and late Holocene, including fluctuations in the terminal position of Sheridan Glacier. Cabin Lake is situated to receive meltwater during periods when the outwash plain of the advancing Sheridan Glacier had aggraded. A brief early Holocene advance from 11.2 to 11.0 cal ka is represented by glacial rock flour near the base of the sediment core. Non-glacial lake conditions were restored for about 1000 years before the water level in Cabin Lake lowered and the core site became a fen. The fen indicates drier-than-present conditions leading up to the Holocene thermal maximum. An unconformity spanning 5400 years during the mid-Holocene is overlain by peat until 1110 CE when meltwater from Sheridan Glacier returned to the basin. Three intervals of an advanced Sheridan Glacier are recorded in the Cabin Lake sediments during the late Holocene: 1110–1180, 1260–1540 and 1610–1780 CE. The sedimentary sequence also contains the first five reported tephra deposits from the Copper River delta region, and their geochemical signatures suggest that the sources are the Cook Inlet volcanoes Redoubt, Augustine and Crater Peak, and possibly Mt Churchill in the Wrangell Volcanic field.

Alaska

Distribution of tiger salamanders in northern Sonora, Mexico: Comparison of sampling methods and possible implications for an endangered subspecies

Many aquatic species in the arid USA-Mexico borderlands region are imperiled, but limited information on distributions and threats often hinders management. To provide information on the distribution of the Western Tiger Salamander ( Ambystoma mavortium ), including the USA-federally endangered Sonoran Tiger Salamander ( Ambystoma mavortium stebbinsi ), we used traditional (seines, dip-nets) and modern (environmental DNA [eDNA]) methods to sample 91 waterbodies in northern Sonora, Mexico, during 2015-2018. The endemic Sonoran Tiger Salamander is threatened by introgressive hybridization and potential replacement by another sub-species of the Western Tiger Salamander, the non-native Barred Tiger Salamander ( A. m. mavortium ). Based on occupancy models that accounted for imperfect detection, eDNA sampling provided a similar detection probability (0.82 [95% CI: 0.56-0.94]) as seining (0.83 [0.46-0.96]) and much higher detection than dip-netting (0.09 [0.02-0.23]). Volume of water filtered had little effect on detection, possibly because turbid sites had greater densities of salamanders. Salamanders were estimated to occur at 51 sites in 3 river drainages in Sonora. These results indicate tiger salamanders are much more widespread in northern Sonora than previously documented, perhaps aided by changes in land and water management practices. However, because the two subspecies of salamanders cannot be reliably distinguished based on morphology or eDNA methods that are based on mitochondrial DNA, we are uncertain if we detected only native genotypes or if we documented recent invasion of the area by the non-native sub-species. Thus, there is an urgent need for methods to reliably distinguish the subspecies so managers can identify appropriate interventions.

Sonora

Ecosystem stressors in southern Nevada

Southern Nevada ecosystems and their associated resources are subject to a number of global and regional/local stressors that are affecting the sustainability of the region. Global stressors include elevated carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) concentrations and associated changes in temperature and precipitation patterns and amount, solar radiation, and nutrient cycles (Smith and others 2009b). Global stressors are ubiquitous in nature and interact both directly and indirectly with regional or local stressors. Regional/local stressors in southern Nevada include: population growth and urbanization and associated increases in nitrogen deposition, energy development, water development, and recreation; increased effects of insects and disease; ongoing effects of livestock, wild horse and burro grazing; new and expanding invasive species; and altered fire regimes. This chapter provides background information on the stressors affecting southern Nevada's ecosystems that is needed to address Goal 1.0 in the SNAP Science Research Strategy, which is to restore, sustain, and enhance southern Nevada's ecosystems (Turner and others 2009). Human population growth and changes in land use strongly affect the type and magnitude of local/regional stressors. From 1960 to 2010, Nevada's growth rate was the highest in the nation (www.census.gov/prod/cen2010/briefs/c2010br-01.pdf). Clark County has experienced particularly high growth, with a population increase of greater than 40 percent since the 2000 census. Factors like land ownership, historic and current land use, proximity to human and energy developments, and desirability for recreation all influence the level of human-caused stress. The strong elevation/climate gradients and large difference in the environmental characteristics of southern Nevada ecosystems (fig. 1.2; Chapter 1) have a major influence on both patterns of land use and the dominant stressors for different ecosystem types. Shifts in land use related to population growth, urbanization, and energy development and largely focused in lower elevation ecosystems including sagebursh, blackbrush and shadscale, and Mojave Desert scrub. Water divisions influence riparian/aquatic ecosystems and springs, while groundwater pumping also has the potential to affect ecosystems that characterize lower valleys including Mojave Desert scrub. Recreational uses influence all ecosystems, and wild horse and burro use and livestock grazing affect all but alpine and subalpine ecosystems. Insects and disease, as well as invasive species are widespread stressors. Fire is limited to ecosystems with sufficient fuels to carry fire and is strongly influence by invasive species in lower elevation Mojave Desert scrub, blackbrush and shadscale, and sagebursh ecosystems. This chapter address aspects of several of the Goals and Sub-goals listed in the SNAP Science Research Strategy (table 1.3; Turner and others 2009). Altered fire regimes, invasive species, land use practices, and management actions are addressed in Goal 1 -- Sustain, Restore, and Enhance Southern Nevada's Ecosystems. The effects of these stressors on sensitive species and habitat are specifically addressed in Sub-goal 1.4 -- Sustain and Enhance Southern Nevada's Biotic Communities, to Preserve Biodiversity and Maintain Populations. Anthropogenic factors, such a recreation and urbanization, are referred to in Goal 2-- Provide for Responsible Use of Southern Nevada;s Lands in a Manner that Preserve Heritage Resources and Promotes an Understanding of Human Interaction with the Landscape.

Nevada

Rapid regional recovery from sulfate and nitrate pollution in streams of the western Czech Republic - Comparison to other recovering areas

Hydrochemical changes between 1991 and 2001 were assessed based on two synoptic stream surveys from the 820-km2 region of the Slavkov Forest and surrounding area, western Czech Republic. Marked declines of sulfate, nitrate, chloride, calcium and magnesium in surface waters were compared with other areas of Europe and North America recovering from acidification. Declines of sulfate concentration in the Slavkov Forest (-30 ??eq L-1 yr-1) were more dramatic than declines reported from other sites. However, these dramatic declines of strong acid anions did not generate a widespread increase of stream water pH in the Slavkov Forest. Only the most acidic streams experienced a slight increase of pH by 0.5 unit. An unexpected decline of stream water pH occurred in slightly alkaline streams. ?? 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Environmental Pollution

Quantifying salinity and season effects on eastern oyster clearance and oxygen consumption rates

There are few data on Crassostrea virginica physiological rates across the range of salinities and temperatures to which they are regularly exposed, and this limits the applicability of growth and production models using these data. The objectives of this study were to quantify, in winter (17 °C) and summer (27 °C), the clearance and oxygen consumption rates of C. virginica from Louisiana across a range of salinities typical of the region (3, 6, 9, 15 and 25). Salinity and season (temperature and reproduction) affected C. virginica physiology differently; salinity impacted clearance rates with reduced feeding rates at low salinities, while season had a strong effect on respiration rates. Highest clearance rates were found at salinities of 9–25, with reductions ranging from 50 to 80 and 90 to 95% at salinities of 6 and 3, respectively. Oxygen consumption rates in summer were four times higher than in winter. Oxygen consumption rates were within a narrow range and similar among salinities in winter, but varied greatly among individuals and salinities in summer. This likely reflected varying stages of gonad development. Valve movements measured at the five salinities indicated oysters were open 50–60% of the time in the 6–25 salinity range and ~ 30% at a salinity of 3. Reduced opening periods, concomitant with narrower valve gap amplitudes, are in accord with the limited feeding at the lowest salinity (3). These data indicate the need for increased focus on experimental determination of optimal ranges and thresholds to better quantify oyster population responses to environmental changes.

Marine Biology

Economic Growth and Landscape Change

Prato and Fagre offer the first systematic, multi-disciplinary assessment of the challenges involved in managing the Crown of the Continent Ecosystem (CCE), an area of the Rocky Mountains that includes northwestern Montana, southwestern Alberta, and southeastern British Columbia. The spectacular landscapes, extensive recreational options, and broad employment opportunities of the CCE have made it one of the fastest growing regions in the United States and Canada, and have lead to a shift in its economic base from extractive resource industries to service-oriented recreation and tourism industries. In the process, however, the amenities and attributes that draw people to this “New West” are under threat. Pastoral scenes are disappearing as agricultural lands and other open spaces are converted to residential uses, biodiversity is endangered by the fragmentation of fish and wildlife habitats, and many areas are experiencing a decline in air and water quality. Sustaining Rocky Mountain Landscapes provides a scientific basis for communities to develop policies for managing the growth and economic transformation of the CCE without sacrificing the quality of life and environment for which the land is renowned. This forthcoming edited volume focuses on five aspects of sustaining mountain landscapes in the CCE and similar regions in the Rocky Mountains. The five aspects are: 1) how social, economic, demographic and environmental forces are transforming ecosystem structure and function, 2) trends in use and conditions for human and environmental resources, 3) activating science, policy and education to enhance sustainable landscape management, 4) challenges to sustainable management of public and private lands, and 5) future prospects for achieving sustainable landscapes.

Book chapter

The quality of our nation's waters: Nutrients in the nation's streams and groundwater, 1992-2004

National Findings and Their Implications Although the use of artificial fertilizer has supported increasing food production to meet the needs of a growing population, increases in nutrient loadings from agricultural and, to a lesser extent, urban sources have resulted in nutrient concentrations in many streams and parts of aquifers that exceed standards for protection of human health and (or) aquatic life, often by large margins. Do NAWQA findings substantiate national concerns for aquatic and human health? National Water-Quality Assessment (NAWQA) findings indicate that nutrient concentrations in streams and groundwater in basins with significant agricultural or urban development are substantially greater than naturally occurring or “background” levels. For example, median concentrations of total nitrogen and phosphorus in agricultural streams are about 6 times greater than background levels. Findings also indicate that concentrations in streams routinely were 2 to 10 times greater than regional nutrient criteria recommended by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) to protect aquatic life. Such large differences in magnitude suggest that significant reductions in sources of nutrients, as well as greater use of land management strategies to reduce the transport of nutrients to streams, are needed to meet recommended criteria for streams draining areas with significant agricultural and urban development. Nitrate concentrations above the Federal drinking-water standard—or Maximum Contaminant Level (MCL)—of 10 milligrams per liter (mg/L, as nitrogen) are relatively uncommon in samples from streams used for drinking water or from relatively deep aquifers; the MCL is exceeded, however, in more than 20 percent of shallow (less than 100 feet below the water table) domestic wells in agricultural areas. This finding raises concerns for human health in rural agricultural areas where shallow groundwater is used for domestic supply and may warn of future contamination of deeper groundwater pumped from public‑supply wells. Are levels of nutrients in water increasing or decreasing? A decadal assessment of trends in concentrations of nitrogen and phosphorus from about 1993 to 2003 shows minimal changes in those concentrations in the majority of studied streams across the Nation, and more upward than downward trends in concentrations at sites with changes. These findings underscore the need for reductions in nutrient inputs or management strategies that would reduce transport of nutrients to streams. Upward trends were evident among all land uses, including those only minimally affected by agricultural and (or) urban development, which suggests that additional protection of some of our Nation’s most pristine streams warrants consideration. The median of nitrate concentrations in groundwater from 495 wells also increased significantly from 3.2 to 3.4 mg/L (6 percent) during about the same period, and the proportion of wells with concentrations of nitrate greater than the MCL increased from 16 to 21 percent. Nitrate concentrations in water in deep aquifers are likely to increase during the next decade as shallow groundwater with elevated concentrations moves downward. The potential for future contamination of the deep aquifers requires attention because these aquifers commonly are used for public water supply, and because restoration of groundwater is costly and difficult. Long-term and consistent monitoring of nutrients, improved accounting of nutrient sources, and improved tracking and modeling of climatic and landscape changes will be essential for distinguishing trends in nutrient concentrations, understanding the causes of those trends, and accurately tracking the effectiveness of strategies implemented to manage nutrients.

Circular

Decision-support framework for linking regional-scale management actions to continental-scale conservation of wide-ranging species

Anas acuta (Northern pintail; hereafter pintail) was selected as a model species on which to base a decision-support framework linking regional actions to continental-scale population and harvest objectives. This framework was then used to engage stakeholders, such as Landscape Conservation Cooperatives’ (LCCs’) habitat management partners within areas of importance to pintails, while maximizing cross-taxa effects from the framework. The mathematical framework for the model had been previously developed for pintails. A key assumption incorporated into the model is that density dependence in survival occurs during the post-hunting (winter) period, where resources are hypothesized to be limiting. Because few data are available to directly inform this process, the approach used was to build a hierarchical Bayesian integrated population model (IPM) that simultaneously uses data from bird-band recoveries, breeding population counts, and harvest surveys to estimate values of parameters of an annual population projection model, including population size, survival rate, reproductive rate, and process and observation error variances, that are logically consistent with each other, given the mathematical structure imposed through the IPM. The main accomplishments of this study are (1) development of an IPM for pintail to guide harvest and habitat management, (2) development of a Prairie Parkland Region breeding submodel to predict pintail productivity, (3) development of statistical methodology to estimate pintail productivity (as measured by the ratio of juvenile to adults in hunter-collected wing samples) and winter survival and to relate these estimates to covariates, and (4) illustration of how to use a model and estimated parameter values to predict pintail population size and sustainable harvest as a function of habitat. Estimation of pintail survival from bird-banding data shows that there has been relatively little variation in survival over the period 1960–2013. A productivity model showed strong effects of breeding ground conditions, wintering-ground precipitation, and density dependence on pintail productivity. Thus, most temporal variation in pintail demographic rates has been due to effects on reproduction and not survival, including effects of breeding or wintering-ground habitat. These results indicate that habitat conservation efforts may be most effective if they focus on maintaining or increasing breeding and wintering-ground habitat to increase pintail productivity rather than pintail survival. Environmental perturbations in excess of historical experience, such as what could occur under climate change, might have meaningful effects on survival but cannot be estimated with current data. Direct effects of climate, land use, or management are likely to be greater on productivity than survival, but substantial uncertainty remains about predictions of equilibrium population size and sustainable yield.

Open-File Report

Integrating local pastoral knowledge, participatory mapping, and species distribution modeling for risk assessment of invasive rubber vine ( Cryptostegia grandiflora ) in Ethiopia’s Afar region

The threats posed by invasive plants span ecosystems and economies worldwide. Local knowledge of biological invasions has proven beneficial for invasive species research, but to date no work has integrated this knowledge with species distribution modeling for invasion risk assessments. In this study, we integrated pastoral knowledge with Maxent modeling to assess the suitable habitat and potential impacts of invasive Cryptostegia grandiflora Robx. Ex R.Br. (rubber vine) in Ethiopia’s Afar region. We conducted focus groups with seven villages across the Amibara and Awash-Fentale districts. Pastoral knowledge revealed the growing threat of rubber vine, which to date has received limited attention in Ethiopia, and whose presence in Afar was previously unknown to our team. Rubber vine occurrence points were collected in the field with pastoralists and processed in Maxent with MODIS-derived vegetation indices, topographic data, and anthropogenic variables. We tested model fit using a jackknife procedure and validated the final model with an independent occurrence data set collected through participatory mapping activities with pastoralists. A Multivariate Environmental Similarity Surface analysis revealed areas with novel environmental conditions for future targeted surveys. Model performance was evaluated using area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC) and showed good fit across the jackknife models (average AUC = 0.80) and the final model (test AUC = 0.96). Our results reveal the growing threat rubber vine poses to Afar, with suitable habitat extending downstream of its current known location in the middle Awash River basin. Local pastoral knowledge provided important context for its rapid expansion due to acute changes in seasonality and habitat alteration, in addition to threats posed to numerous endemic tree species that provide critical provisioning ecosystem services. This work demonstrates the utility of integrating local ecological knowledge with species distribution modeling for early detection and targeted surveying of recently established invasive species.

Ecology and Society

Time series of suspended-solids concentration, salinity, temperature, and total mercury concentration in San Francisco Bay during water year 1998

Many physical processes affect how constituents within San Francisco Bay vary. Processes and their associated time scales include turbulence (seconds), semidiurnal and diurnal tides (hours), the spring-neap tidal cycle (days), freshwater flow (weeks), seasonal winds (months), ecological and climatic changes (years), and geologic changes (thousands of years). Continuous time series of data on basic state variables of the bay, such as suspended-solids concentration (SSC), salinity, and water temperature, provide insight on the effect and relative importance of physical processes on the bay. SSC time series and Regional Monitoring Program (RMP) water-quality data can be used to calculate time series of some traceelement concentrations (Schoellhamer, 1997a, 1997b). The purpose of this chapter is to describe qualitatively time series of SSC, salinity, water temperature, and mercury during water year 1998 (October 1997 through September 1998). Salinity, temperature, and sediment are important components of the San Francisco Bay estuarine system. Salinity and temperature affect the hydrodynamics (Monismith et al., 1996; Schoellhamer and Burau, 1998), geochemistry (Kuwabara et al., 1989), and ecology (Cloern, 1984; Nichols et al., 1986; Jassby et al., 1995) of the bay. Suspended sediments limit light availability in the bay, which, in turn, limits primary production (Cloern, 1987; Cole and Cloern, 1987), and thus food for higher trophic levels. Sediments deposit in ports and shipping channels, which must be dredged to maintain navigation (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 1992). Potentially toxic substances, such as metals and pesticides, adsorb to sediment particles (Kuwabara et al., 1989; Domagalski and Kuivila, 1993; Flegal et al., 1996; Schoellhamer, 1997a, 1997b). The transport and fate of suspended sediments are important factors in determining the transport and fate of constituents adsorbed on the sediments. For example, the concentration of suspended particulate chromium in the bay appears to be controlled primarily by sediment resuspension (Abu-Saba and Flegal, 1995). Concentrations of dissolved trace elements are greater in South Bay than elsewhere in San Francisco Bay, and bottom sediments are believed to be a significant source (Flegal et al., 1991). The sediments on the bay bottom provide habitat for benthic communities that can ingest these substances and introduce them into the food web (Luoma et al., 1985; Brown and Luoma, 1995, Luoma 1996). Bottom sediments also are a reservoir of nutrients that contribute to the maintenance of estuarine productivity (Hammond et al., 1985).

California

Exploring trends in wet-season precipitation and drought indices in wet, humid and dry regions

This study examines wet season droughts using eight products from the FROGS database. The study begins by evaluating wet season precipitation totals and wet day counts at seasonal and decadal time scales. While we find a high level of agreement among the products at a seasonal timescale, evaluations of 10-year variability indicate substantial non-stationary inter-product differences that make the assessment of low-frequency changes difficult, especially in data-sparse regions. Some products, however, appear more reliable than others on decadal time scales. Global time series of dry, middle, and wet region standardized precipitation index (SPI) time series indicate little coherent change. There is substantial coherence in year-to-year variations in these time series, for the better performing products, likely indicative of skill for monitoring variations at large spatial scales. During the wet season, the data do not appear to indicate wide spread global increases in precipitation, RefET or Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) values. Neither the precipitation, RefET or SPEI indicate a wide-spread regional shift towards more arid conditions. Focusing on SPEI values for dry regions during droughts, however, indicate substantial increases in dry region aridity when wet season precipitation is below normal. Dry region SPEI values during droughts have decreased by -0.2 since the 1990s. More detailed analysis in further studies will be needed to confirm this result. For wet regions, however, the majority of products appear to indicate increases in wet season precipitation, although many products perform poorly in these regions due to limited observation networks, and estimated increases vary substantially.

Environmental Research Letters

Managing the Mississippi River floodplain: Achieving ecological benefits requires more than hydrological connection to the river: Chapter

Floodplains are vital to the structure and function of river-floodplain ecosystems. Among the many ecological services provided by floodplains are nutrient cycling and seasonal habitats for fish, including spawning, nursery, foraging and wintering habitats. Connections between the river channel and floodplain habitats are essential to realize these ecological services, but spatial and temporal aspects of the connection and contemporary geomorphology must also be considered in restoration efforts. This chapter synthesizes available information to compare floodplain function and needed management strategies in two extensive reaches (upper impounded and lower free-flowing) of the Mississippi River, USA. The upper impounded reach is the 523-km reach from about Minneapolis, Minnesota to Clinton, Iowa. This reach has been impounded and channelized for navigation. Mean annual water-level fluctuation ranges from 1 to 2 m in the navigation pools in this reach. Floodplain environmental conditions that affect nitrogen cycling and fish production vary seasonally and longitudinally within and among navigation pools. Significant issues affecting ecological services include sedimentation, constrained water level fluctuations, island erosion and seasonal hypoxia. The lower free-flowing reach, the 1570-km reach from the confluence of the Ohio and Mississippi rivers to the Gulf of Mexico, has no dams and average annual fluctuations of 7 m throughout most of the reach. Despite the substantial flood pulse, floodplain inundation is often brief and may not occur annually. Significant issues affecting floodplain ecological function are the short duration and thermal asynchrony of the flood pulse, sedimentation and loss of connection between the river channel and permanent/semi-permanent floodplain water bodies due to channel incision. Needs and strategies for floodplain enhancement to increase ecological services, particularly nitrogen cycling and fish production, differ along the longitudinal gradient of the Mississippi River and provide informative contrasts to guide floodplain management. Prediction of the effects of climate change on this system will be complicated by the magnitude of the watershed that encompasses 41 % of the continental USA and multiple climatic regions.

Mississippi River floodplain

The global wildland-urban interface

The wildland–urban interface (WUI) is where buildings and wildland vegetation meet or intermingle . It is where human–environmental conflicts and risks can be concentrated, including the loss of houses and lives to wildfire, habitat loss and fragmentation and the spread of zoonotic diseases . However, a global analysis of the WUI has been lacking. Here, we present a global map of the 2020 WUI at 10 m resolution using a globally consistent and validated approach based on remote sensing-derived datasets of building area and wildland vegetation . We show that the WUI is a global phenomenon, identify many previously undocumented WUI hotspots and highlight the wide range of population density, land cover types and biomass levels in different parts of the global WUI. The WUI covers only 4.7% of the land surface but is home to nearly half its population (3.5 billion). The WUI is especially widespread in Europe (15% of the land area) and the temperate broadleaf and mixed forests biome (18%). Of all people living near 2003–2020 wildfires (0.4 billion), two thirds have their home in the WUI, most of them in Africa (150 million). Given that wildfire activity is predicted to increase because of climate change in many regions , there is a need to understand housing growth and vegetation patterns as drivers of WUI change.

Nature