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At least 973 records · Page 54Linked to original sources

USGS2016

Widespread episodic thiamine deficiency in Northern Hemisphere wildlife

Many wildlife populations are declining at rates higher than can be explained by known threats to biodiversity. Recently, thiamine (vitamin B 1 ) deficiency has emerged as a possible contributing cause. Here, thiamine status was systematically investigated in three animal classes: bivalves, ray-finned fishes, and birds. Thiamine diphosphate is required as a cofactor in at least five life-sustaining enzymes that are required for basic cellular metabolism. Analysis of different phosphorylated forms of thiamine, as well as of activities and amount of holoenzyme and apoenzyme forms of thiamine-dependent enzymes, revealed episodically occurring thiamine deficiency in all three animal classes. These biochemical effects were also linked to secondary effects on growth, condition, liver size, blood chemistry and composition, histopathology, swimming behaviour and endurance, parasite infestation, and reproduction. It is unlikely that the thiamine deficiency is caused by impaired phosphorylation within the cells. Rather, the results point towards insufficient amounts of thiamine in the food. By investigating a large geographic area, by extending the focus from lethal to sublethal thiamine deficiency, and by linking biochemical alterations to secondary effects, we demonstrate that the problem of thiamine deficiency is considerably more widespread and severe than previously reported.

Scientific Reports↗

USGS2016

Biogeography of boreal passerine range dynamics in western North America: past, present, and future

Many of the Neotropical migrant bird species that breed throughout the Canadian boreal region are not found in the Alaskan boreal region, separated by the northwestern cordilleran mountains, despite the presence of climatically suitable habitat. We asked whether biological or climatic factors constrain certain species from crossing this geographic barrier. Analyzing a comprehensive dataset for 80 boreal passerine species, we used phylogenetic logistic regression to evaluate the relative importance of physical, migratory and competition metrics versus current and paleoclimatic suitability factors. Controlling for current climatic suitability within boreal Alaska, we found that species with the greatest climatic suitability across the northwestern cordillera, presently and also during the mid-Holocene period, were most likely to be regular breeders in the Alaskan boreal region. Migratory strategy also played a role, but could not be disentangled from its strong phylogenetic basis. Our analysis suggests that the perceived barrier of the northwestern cordillera may be easily weakened as climate change improves conditions there for many forest species. The weakening of this barrier may lead to relatively rapid range expansions and the reshuffling of species communities. Species’ realized distributional shifts will be a function of the interplay between a changing climate and static topographic features.

Ecography: Pattern and Diversity in Ecology↗

USGS2007

Molecular ecology of the big brown bat (Eptesicus fuscus): Genetic and natural history variation in a hybrid zone

Several geographically distinct mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) lineages of the big brown bat (Eptesicus fuscus) have been documented in North America. Individuals from 2 of these lineages, an eastern and a western form, co-occur within maternity colonies in Colorado. The discovery of 2 divergent mtDNA lineages in sympatry prompted a set of questions regarding possible biological differences between haplotypes. We captured big brown bats at maternity roosts in Colorado and recorded data on body size, pelage color, litter size, roosting and overwintering behaviors, and local distributions. Wing biopsies were collected for genetic analysis. The ND2 region of the mtDNA molecule was used to determine lineage of the bats. In addition, nuclear DNA (nDNA) intron 1 of the ??-globin gene was used to determine if mtDNA lineages are hybridizing. Eastern and western mtDNA lineages differed by 10.3% sequence divergence and examination of genetic data suggests recent population expansion for both lineages. Differences in distribution occur along the Colorado Front Range, with an increasing proportion of western haplotypes farther south. Results from nDNA analyses demonstrated hybridization between the 2 lineages. Additionally, no outstanding distinctiveness was found between the mtDNA lineages in natural history characters examined. We speculate that historical climate changes separated this species into isolated eastern and western populations, and that secondary contact with subsequent interbreeding was facilitated by European settlement. ?? 2007 American Society of Mammalogists.

Journal of Mammalogy↗

USGS2016

Disease surveillance of Atlantic herring: molecular characterization of hepatic coccidiosis and a morphological report of a novel intestinal coccidian

Surveillance for pathogens of Atlantic herring, including viral hemorrhagic septicemia virus (VHSV), Ichthyophonus hoferi , and hepatic and intestinal coccidians, was conducted from 2012 to 2016 in the NW Atlantic Ocean, New Jersey, USA. Neither VHSV nor I. hoferi was detected in any sample. Goussia clupearum was found in the livers of 40 to 78% of adult herring in varying parasite loads; however, associated pathological changes were negligible. Phylogenetic analysis based on small subunit 18S rRNA gene sequences placed G. clupearum most closely with other extraintestinal liver coccidia from the genus Calyptospora , though the G. clupearum isolates had a unique nucleotide insertion between 604 and 729 bp that did not occur in any other coccidian species. G. clupearum oocysts from Atlantic and Pacific herring were morphologically similar, though differences occurred in oocyst dimensions. Comparison of G. clupearum genetic sequences from Atlantic and Pacific herring revealed 4 nucleotide substitutions and 2 gaps in a 1749 bp region, indicating some divergence in the geographically separate populations. Pacific G. clupearum oocysts were not directly infective, suggesting that a heteroxenous life cycle is likely. Intestinal coccidiosis was described for the first time from juvenile and adult Atlantic herring. A novel intestinal coccidian species was detected based on morphological characteristics of exogenously sporulated oocysts. A unique feature in these oocysts was the presence of 3 long (15.1 ± 5.1 µm, mean ±SD) spiny projections on both ends of the oocyst. The novel morphology of this coccidian led us to tentatively name this parasite G. echinata n. sp.

New Jersey↗

USGS2025

Dynamic environments generate geographic fluctuations in population structure of an inland shorebird

Species distributions depend on fine-scale ecological processes and population growth trajectories and are influenced by climate and weather changes. However, the characterization of inter-population dynamics underlying the geographic distributions of migratory organisms remains challenging. We adopted a stable isotope approach to investigate the dynamic population geography of a terrestrial migratory bird across multiple generations. We found that the age-specific geographic source of Mountain Plovers sampled during winter shifted over four years across a latitudinal gradient. Moreover, our results show that differential effects of climate on the probability of occurrence at the wintering ground could be a driver of population turnover in a migratory species adapted to extreme environmental stochasticity (i.e., drought occurrence). We propose a framework for the identification of spatial and temporal climate and weather components and respective effects on population composition and recruitment into migratory wintering populations. Our approach is useful to reveal population compositional shifts through hydrogen stable isotope analysis while accounting for cumulative drought effects.

Ecosphere↗

USGS2024

Range-wide population trend analysis for greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus)—Updated 1960–2023

Greater sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ) are at the center of state and national land-use policies largely because of their unique life-history traits as an ecological indicator for health of sagebrush ecosystems. This updated population trend analysis provides state and federal land and wildlife managers with best-available science to help guide management and conservation plans aimed at benefitting sage-grouse populations. This analysis relied on previously published population trend modeling methodology from Coates and others (2021, 2022a) and incorporates population lek count data for 1960–2023. Included in this update are changes in terminology. Specifically, we now use the terms Period 1 (previously Long), Period 2 (previously Medium/Long), Period 3 (previously Medium), Period 4 (previously Short/Medium), Period 5 (previously Short), and Period 6 (previously Recent) to identify specific trends. State-space models estimated 2.8-percent average annual decline in sage-grouse populations between 1966 and 2021 (Period 1, six population oscillations) across their geographical range. Average annual decline among climate clusters for the same number of oscillations ranged between 2.1 and 3.1 percent. Cumulative declines were 41.1, 64.5, and 78.4 percent range-wide during Period 5 (19 years), Period 3 (35 years), and Period 1 (55 years), respectively. Population growth during 2022 and 2023 continue to point to 2021 as the most recent range-wide nadir.

Data Report↗

USGS2014

Sex-biased gene flow among elk in the greater Yellowstone ecosystem

We quantified patterns of population genetic structure to help understand gene flow among elk populations across the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem. We sequenced 596 base pairs of the mitochondrial control region of 380 elk from eight populations. Analysis revealed high mitochondrial DNA variation within populations, averaging 13.0 haplotypes with high mean gene diversity (0.85). The genetic differentiation among populations for mitochondrial DNA was relatively high ( F ST = 0.161; P = 0.001) compared to genetic differentiation for nuclear microsatellite data ( F ST = 0.002; P = 0.332), which suggested relatively low female gene flow among populations. The estimated ratio of male to female gene flow ( m m / m f = 46) was among the highest we have seen reported for large mammals. Genetic distance (for mitochondrial DNA pairwise F ST ) was not significantly correlated with geographic (Euclidean) distance between populations (Mantel's r = 0.274, P = 0.168). Large mitochondrial DNA genetic distances (e.g., F ST > 0.2) between some of the geographically closest populations (<65 km) suggested behavioral factors and/or landscape features might shape female gene flow patterns. Given the strong sex-biased gene flow, future research and conservation efforts should consider the sexes separately when modeling corridors of gene flow or predicting spread of maternally transmitted diseases. The growing availability of genetic data to compare male vs. female gene flow provides many exciting opportunities to explore the magnitude, causes, and implications of sex-biased gene flow likely to occur in many species.

Yellowstone National Park↗

USGS2014

Geopressure gradient maps of Southern Louisiana, state, and vicinity

This series of five maps characterizes the subsurface pressure system of southern Louisiana, including the associated State and Federal waters. These maps were generated using the U.S. Geological Survey’s (USGS) comprehensive geopressure-gradient model (Burke et al., 2012b, 2013) that delineates the regional pressure system spanning the onshore and offshore Gulf of Mexico basin, USA. Previously, the model was used to generate ten regional-scale maps (Burke et al., 2012a): five contour maps characterized the depth to the surface defined by the first occurrence of regional isopressure gradients ranging from 0.60 psi/ft to 1.00 psi/ft, in 0.10-psi/ft increments; and five supporting maps displayed the spatial density of the data used to construct the regional contour maps. Explanation of generalized geopressure gradients and pressure-regime nomenclature is given here. The five contour maps in this series characterize the depth to the surface defined by the first occurrence of isopressure gradients ranging from 0.60 psi/ft to 1.00 psi/ft, in 0.10-psi/ft increments. The geographical extent of this geopressure-gradient model is delineated on the maps, which encompass one of the most densely drilled regions of southern Louisiana and adjacent areas. The boundary of the model represents the area of greatest well density to maintain accurate contouring to the edge of the model. The pressure data were obtained from the IHS database (IHS Energy Group, 2011) and geologic folios (Dodge and Posey, 1981; Bebout and Gutiérrez, 1982; 1983; Eversull, 1984; Foote et al., 1990), which were compiled and digitally archived (Burke et al., 2011). Data quality analysis, linear-pressure interpolation calculations, and contouring algorithms defining the geopressure-gradient model are described by Burke et al. (2012b, 2013). The isopressure-gradient trends depicted on these maps are not intended for detailed interpretation at specific locations.

Louisiana↗

USGS2014

Natural flow regimes of the Ozark-Ouachita Interior Highlands region

Natural flow regimes represent the hydrologic conditions to which native aquatic organisms are best adapted. We completed a regional river classification and quantitative descriptions of each natural flow regime for the Ozark–Ouachita Interior Highlands region of Arkansas, Missouri and Oklahoma. On the basis of daily flow records from 64 reference streams, seven natural flow regimes were identified with mixture model cluster analysis: Groundwater Stable, Groundwater, Groundwater Flashy, Perennial Runoff, Runoff Flashy, Intermittent Runoff and Intermittent Flashy. Sets of flow metrics were selected that best quantified nine ecologically important components of these natural flow regimes. An uncertainty analysis was performed to avoid selecting metrics strongly affected by measurement uncertainty that can result from short periods of record. Measurement uncertainties (bias, precision and accuracy) were assessed for 170 commonly used flow metrics. The ranges of variability expected for select flow metrics under natural conditions were quantified for each flow regime to provide a reference for future assessments of hydrologic alteration. A random forest model was used to predict the natural flow regimes of all stream segments in the study area based on climate and catchment characteristics, and a map was produced. The geographic distribution of flow regimes suggested distinct ecohydrological regions that may be useful for conservation planning. This project provides a hydrologic foundation for future examination of flow–ecology relationships in the region. Published 2014. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Arkansas, Missouri, Oklahoma↗

USGS2000

Genetic variation in the endangered Southwestern Willow Flycatcher

The Southwestern Willow Flycatcher ( Empidonax traillii extimus ) is an endangered Neotropical migrant that breeds in isolated remnants of dense riparian habitat in the southwestern United States. We estimated genetic variation at 20 breeding sites of the Southwestern Willow Flycatcher (290 individuals) using 38 amplified fragment length polymorphisms (AFLPs). Our results suggest that considerable genetic diversity exists within the subspecies and within local breeding sites. Statistical analyses of genetic variation revealed only slight, although significant, differentiation among breeding sites (Mantel's r = 0.0705, P < 0.0005; θ = 0.0816, 95% CI = 0.0608 to 0.1034; Φ ST = 0.0458, P < 0.001). UPGMA cluster analysis of the AFLP markers indicates that extensive gene flow has occurred among breeding sites. No one site stood out as being genetically unique or isolated. Therefore, the small level of genetic structure that we detected may not be biologically significant. Ongoing field studies are consistent with this conclusion. Of the banded birds that were resighted or recaptured in Arizona during the 1996 to 1998 breeding seasons, one-third moved between breeding sites and two-thirds were philopatric. Low differentiation may be the result of historically high rangewide diversity followed by recent geographic isolation of breeding sites, although observational data indicate that gene flow is a current phenomenon. Our data suggest that breeding groups of E. t. extimus act as a metapopulation.

The Auk↗

USGS2011

Low-flow characteristics of Virginia streams

Low-flow annual non-exceedance probabilities (ANEP), called probability-percent chance (P-percent chance) flow estimates, regional regression equations, and transfer methods are provided describing the low-flow characteristics of Virginia streams. Statistical methods are used to evaluate streamflow data. Analysis of Virginia streamflow data collected from 1895 through 2007 is summarized. Methods are provided for estimating low-flow characteristics of gaged and ungaged streams. The 1-, 4-, 7-, and 30-day average streamgaging station low-flow characteristics for 290 long-term, continuous-record, streamgaging stations are determined, adjusted for instances of zero flow using a conditional probability adjustment method, and presented for non-exceedance probabilities of 0.9, 0.8, 0.7, 0.6, 0.5, 0.4, 0.3, 0.2, 0.1, 0.05, 0.02, 0.01, and 0.005. Stream basin characteristics computed using spatial data and a geographic information system are used as explanatory variables in regional regression equations to estimate annual non-exceedance probabilities at gaged and ungaged sites and are summarized for 290 long-term, continuous-record streamgaging stations, 136 short-term, continuous-record streamgaging stations, and 613 partial-record streamgaging stations. Regional regression equations for six physiographic regions use basin characteristics to estimate 1-, 4-, 7-, and 30-day average low-flow annual non-exceedance probabilities at gaged and ungaged sites. Weighted low-flow values that combine computed streamgaging station low-flow characteristics and annual non-exceedance probabilities from regional regression equations provide improved low-flow estimates. Regression equations developed using the Maintenance of Variance with Extension (MOVE.1) method describe the line of organic correlation (LOC) with an appropriate index site for low-flow characteristics at 136 short-term, continuous-record streamgaging stations and 613 partial-record streamgaging stations. Monthly streamflow statistics computed on the individual daily mean streamflows of selected continuous-record streamgaging stations and curves describing flow-duration are presented. Text, figures, and lists are provided summarizing low-flow estimates, selected low-flow sites, delineated physiographic regions, basin characteristics, regression equations, error estimates, definitions, and data sources. This study supersedes previous studies of low flows in Virginia.

Virginia↗

USGS2005

Influence of water temperature on acetylcholinesterase activity in the pacific tree frog ( Hyla regilla )

This investigation evaluated whether acetylcholinesterase (AChE) in Pacific tree frogs ( Hyla regilla ) from different geographical locations was influenced by different temperatures during early aquatic life stages, independent of pesticide exposure. Tadpoles were collected from both a California coastal pond and a Sierra Nevada mountain range pond, USA. Groups of frogs from each location were raised in temperatures representative of either the Sierra Nevada (8°C) or the coastal (19°C) location. Metamorphs from both locations raised as tadpoles at 19°C had AChE activities of 42.3 and 38.7 nm/min/mg protein, while those raised as tadpoles at 8°C had activities of 26.9 and 28.2 nm/min/mg protein. A two-way analysis of variance revealed temperature to be the significant factor in determining AChE activity ( F = 22.3, p < 0.001), although origin was not important ( F = 0.09, p = 0.75). Interpretations regarding the influence of pesticides upon AChE activity in Pacific tree frogs must consider the influence of environmental temperature to enable cross-population comparisons.

Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry↗

USGS1999

Areal-reduction factors for the precipitation of the 1-day design storm in Texas

The reduction of the precipitation depth from a design storm for a point to an effective (mean) depth over a watershed often is important for cost-effective design of hydraulic structures by reducing the volume of precipitation. A design storm for a point is the depth of precipitation that has a specified duration and frequency (recurrence interval). The effective depth can be calculated by multiplying the design-storm depth by an areal-reduction factor ( ARF ). ARF ranges from 0 to 1, varies with the recurrence interval of the design storm, and is a function of watershed characteristics such as watershed size and shape, geographic location, and time of year that the design storm occurs. This report documents an investigation of ARF by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Texas Department of Transportation, for the 1-day design storm for Austin, Dallas, and Houston, Texas. The "annual maxima-centered" approach used in this report specifically considers the distribution of concurrent precipitation surrounding an annual precipitation maxima. Unlike previously established approaches, the annual maxima-centered approach does not require the spatial averaging of precipitation nor explicit definition of a representative area of a particular storm in the analysis. Graphs of the relation between ARF and circular watershed area (to about 7,000 square miles) are provided, and a technique to calculate ARF for noncircular watersheds is discussed.

Texas↗

USGS1991

Mitochondrial DNA in wildlife forensic science: Species identification of tissues

A common problem in wildlife law enforcement is identifying the species of origin of carcasses, meat, or blood when morphological characters such as hair or bones are not available. Immunological and protein electrophoretic (allozyme or general protein) procedures have been used in species identification with considerable success (Bunch et al. 1976, McClymont et al. 1982, Wolfe 1983, Mardini 1984, Pex and Wolfe 1985, Dratch 1986), However, immunological tests often are not sensitive enough to distinguish closely related species. Furthermore, electrophoretically detectable protein polymorphisms may be lacking in certain populations or species and may not be species-specific. Analysis of DNA in human and wildlife forensics has been shown to be a potentially powerful tool for identification of individuals (Jeffreys et al. 1985, Vassartet al. 1987, Thommasen et al. 1989). Differences in copy number and nucleotide sequence of repetitive sequences in the nuclear (chromosomal) DNA result in hypervariability and individual-specific patterns which have been termed DNA "fingerprints." However, these patterns may be too variable for species identification necessitating analyses of more conservative parts of the genome. Mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) is haploid, maternally inherited, similar in nucleotide sequence among conspecifics from the same geographic region, and more suitable for species identification, in contrast to hypervariable DNA fingerprints. MtDNA has several characteristics which make it useful as a species-specific marker. In mammals, individuals have a single mtDNA genotype shared by all tissues. Because mtDNA is haploid and reflects only maternal ancestry, the mtDNA gene number in a population is 4 times less than the nuclear gene number (Birky et al. 1983). This can result in relatively rapid loss or fixation of mtDNA genotypes so that all individuals in a population may be descended from a single ancestral female in as few as 4N ( N = population size) generations (Avise et al., 1984). This suggests there is great potential for identification of species-specific or population-specific mtDNA genotypes, Within species, mtDNA genotypes are thought to be selectively neutral, i.e., there is little evidence that genotypes differ in fitness (Nigro and Prout 1990).

Wildlife Society Bulletin↗

USGS2015

Predicting invasiveness of species in trade: Climate match, trophic guild and fecundity influence establishment and impact of non-native freshwater fishes

Aim Impacts of non-native species have motivated development of risk assessment tools for identifying introduced species likely to become invasive. Here, we develop trait-based models for the establishment and impact stages of freshwater fish invasion, and use them to screen non-native species common in international trade. We also determine which species in the aquarium, biological supply, live bait, live food and water garden trades are likely to become invasive. Results are compared to historical patterns of non-native fish establishment to assess the relative importance over time of pathways in causing invasions. Location Laurentian Great Lakes region. Methods Trait-based classification trees for the establishment and impact stages of invasion were developed from data on freshwater fish species that established or failed to establish in the Great Lakes. Fishes in trade were determined from import data from Canadian and United States regulatory agencies, assigned to specific trades and screened through the developed models. Results Climate match between a species’ native range and the Great Lakes region predicted establishment success with 75–81% accuracy. Trophic guild and fecundity predicted potential harmful impacts of established non-native fishes with 75–83% accuracy. Screening outcomes suggest the water garden trade poses the greatest risk of introducing new invasive species, followed by the live food and aquarium trades. Analysis of historical patterns of introduction pathways demonstrates the increasing importance of these trades relative to other pathways. Comparisons among trades reveal that model predictions parallel historical patterns; all fishes previously introduced from the water garden trade have established. The live bait, biological supply, aquarium and live food trades have also contributed established non-native fishes. Main conclusions Our models predict invasion risk of potential fish invaders to the Great Lakes region and could help managers prioritize efforts among species and pathways to minimize such risk. Similar approaches could be applied to other taxonomic groups and geographic regions.

Diversity and Distributions↗

USGS2021

Genome-wide SNP analysis of three moose subspecies at the southern range limit in the contiguous United States

Genome-wide evaluations of genetic diversity and population structure are important for informing management and conservation of trailing-edge populations. North American moose ( Alces alces ) are declining along portions of the southern edge of their range due to disease, species interactions, and marginal habitat, all of which may be exacerbated by climate change. We employed a genotyping by sequencing (GBS) approach in an effort to collect baseline information on the genetic variation of moose inhabiting the species’ southern range periphery in the contiguous United States. We identified 1920 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) from 155 moose representing three subspecies from five states: A. a. americana (New Hampshire), A. a. andersoni (Minnesota), and A. a. shirasi (Idaho, Montana, and Wyoming). Molecular analyses supported three geographically isolated clusters, congruent with currently recognized subspecies. Additionally, while moderately low genetic diversity was observed, there was little evidence of inbreeding. Results also indicated > 20% shared ancestry proportions between A. a. shirasi samples from northern Montana and A. a. andersoni samples from Minnesota, indicating a putative hybrid zone warranting further investigation. GBS has proven to be a simple and effective method for genome-wide SNP discovery in moose and provides robust data for informing herd management and conservation priorities. With increasing disease, predation, and climate related pressure on range edge moose populations in the United States, the use of SNP data to identify gene flow between subspecies may prove a powerful tool for moose management and recovery, particularly if hybrid moose are more able to adapt.

Conservation Genetics↗

USGS2019

Empirical estimation of natural geoelectric hazards

Geoelectric field time series can be estimated by convolving estimates of Earth‐surface impedance, such as those obtained from magnetotelluric survey measurements, with historical records of geomagnetic variation obtained at magnetic observatories. This straightforward procedure permits the mapping of geoelectric field variation during magnetic storms. Statistical analysis of the time series allows extrapolation to extreme‐value amplitudes, such as might be realized during an intense magnetic storm in the future. The development of these products is illustrated for the Mid‐Atlantic United States, using impedances obtained from EarthScope survey data and geomagnetic variation records obtained at the Fredericksburg observatory operated by the U.S. Geological Survey. For this region, 100‐year geoelectric exceedance amplitudes have a range of almost three orders of magnitude (from 0.04 V/km at a site in southern Pennsylvania to 24.29 V/km at a site in central Virginia), and they have significant geographic granularity, which is due to site‐to‐site differences in surface impedance (and subsurface electrical conductivity structure). Maps of 100‐year exceedance amplitudes resemble those of geoelectric amplitudes for the March 1989 magnetic storm, and, in that sense, the March 1989 storm resembles what might be loosely called a “100‐year” event.

Book chapter↗

USGS2009

Early warning of rainfall-induced shallow landslides and debris flows in the USA

The state of knowledge and resources available to issue alerts of precipitation-induced landslides vary across the USA. Federal and state agencies currently issue warnings of the potential for shallow, rapidly moving landslides and debris flows in a few areas along the Pacific coast and for areas affected by Atlantic hurricanes. However, these agencies generally lack resources needed to provide continuous support or to expand services to other areas. Precipitation thresholds that form the basis of landslide warning systems now exist for a few areas of the USA, but the threshold rainfall amounts and durations vary over three orders of magnitude nationwide and over an order of magnitude across small geographic areas such as a county. Antecedent moisture conditions also have a significant effect, particularly in areas that have distinct wet and dry seasons. Early warnings of shallow landslides that include specific information about affected areas, probability of landslide occurrence, and expected timing are technically feasible as illustrated by a case study from the Seattle, WA area. The four-level warning scheme (Null, Outlook, Watch, Warning) defined for Seattle is based on observed or predicted exceedance of a cumulative precipitation threshold and a rainfall intensity–duration threshold combined with real-time monitoring of soil moisture. Based on analysis of historical data, threshold performance varies according to precipitation characteristics, and threshold exceedance corresponds to a given probability of landslide occurrence. Experience in Seattle during December 2004 and January 2005 illustrates some of the challenges of providing landslide early warning on the USA West Coast.

Landslides↗