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USGS2022

Revised earthquake geology inputs for the central and eastern United States and southeast Canada for the 2023 National Seismic Hazard Model

It has been nearly a decade since updates to seismic and fault sources in the central and eastern United States (CEUS) were last assessed for the 2012 Central and Eastern United States Seismic Source Characterization for nuclear facilities (CEUS-SSCn) and 2014 United States Geological Survey National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) for the conterminous U.S. In advance of the 2023 NSHM update, we created 3 related geospatial databases to summarize and characterize new fault source information for the CEUS. These include fault section, fault-zone polygon, and earthquake geology (fault slip rate, earthquake recurrence intervals) databases which document updates to fault parameters used in prior seismic hazard models in this region. The 2012 CEUS-SSCn and 2014 NSHM fault models served as a foundation, as we revised and added fault sources where new published studies documented significant changes to our understanding of fault location, geometry, or activity. We added 9 new fault sections that meet the criteria of (1) a length ≥7 km, (2) evidence of recurrent Quaternary tectonic activity, and (3) documentation that is publicly available in a peer-reviewed source. The prior CEUS models only included 6 fault sections (sources) and 10 fault-zone polygons (previously called repeating large magnitude earthquake (RLME) polygons). The revised databases include 15 fault sections and 10 fault zone polygons. Updates to the faults constitute a 150% increase in fault sections, but no change in the number of fault-zone polygons, although some fault-zone polygons differ from RLME polygons used in prior models. No faults were removed from past models. Several seismic zones and suspected faults were evaluated but not included in this update due to a lack of information about fault location, geometry, or recurrent Quaternary activity. These updates to the fault sections, fault-zone polygons, and earthquake geology databases will inform fault geometry and activity rates of CEUS sources during the 2023 NSHM implementation.

Seismological Research Letters↗

USGS2020

Fault trace mapping and surface-fault-rupture special study zone delineation of the Wasatch Fault Zone, Utah and Idaho

The Wasatch fault zone (WFZ) is a 220-mile-long (350-km) fault zone divided into 10 structural segments extending from southeastern Idaho to central Utah. The central five segments of the WFZ underlie the densely populated Wasatch Front region, where the majority of Utah’s population and economy are proximal to the fault zone. The West Valley fault zone (WVFZ) is an antithetic structure related to the WFZ and runs through the Salt Lake Valley. Communities on or adjacent to the WFZ are at risk of earthquake damage, due to their proximity to the fault zones. During 2016–2018, the Utah Geological Survey and a U.S. Geological Survey collaborator performed updated fault mapping of 39 7.5' quadrangles along the WFZ using recently acquired high-resolution topographic data derived from airborne light detection and ranging (lidar) elevation data. Previous geologic mapping, paleoseismic investigations, historical aerial photography, and field investigations were also used to identify and map surface fault traces and infer fault locations. Special study zones were delineated around fault traces to facilitate understanding of the surface-rupturing hazard and associated risk. Defining these special study zones encourages the creation and implementation of municipal and county geologic-hazard ordinances dealing with hazardous faults. We identified potential paleoseismic investigation sites where fault scarps appear relatively pristine, are located in geologically favorable settings, and where additional earthquake timing data would be beneficial to the continued earthquake research of the WFZ. The fault geometries, attributes, and special study zones were published in the online Utah Geologic Hazards Portal simultaneously with this Report of Investigation (RI). This report contains supplementary material describing the data and methods used to perform the mapping and in locating potential paleoseismic investigation sites in the study area. This work is critical to raise awareness of earthquake hazards in areas of Utah experiencing rapid growth.

Idaho, Utah↗

USGS2016

A study of the 2015 Mw 8.3 Illapel earthquake and tsunami: Numerical and analytical approaches

The September 16, 2015 Illapel, Chile earthquake triggered a large tsunami, causing both economic losses and fatalities. To study the coastal effects of this earthquake, and to understand how such hazards might be accurately modeled in the future, different finite fault models of the Illapel rupture are used to define the initial condition for tsunami simulation. The numerical code Non-hydrostatic Evolution of Ocean WAVEs (NEOWAVE) is employed to model the tsunami evolution through the Pacific Ocean. Because only a short time is available for emergency response, and since the earthquake and tsunami sources are close to the coast, gaining a rapid understanding of the near-field run-up behavior is highly relevant to Chile. Therefore, an analytical solution of the 2 ? 1 D shallow water wave equations is considered. With this solution, we show that we can quickly estimate the run-up distribution along the coastline, to first order. After the earthquake and tsunami, field observations were measured in the surrounded coastal region, where the tsunami resulted in significant run-up. First, we compare the analytical and numerical solutions to test the accuracy of the analytical approach and the field observations, implying the analytic approach can accurately model tsunami run-up after an earthquake, without sacrificing the time necessary for a full numerical inversion. Then, we compare both with field run-up measurements. We observe the consistency between the two approaches. To complete the analysis, a tsunami source inversion is performed using run-up field measurements only. These inversion results are compared with seismic models, and are shown to capture the broad-scale details of those models, without the necessity of the detailed data sets they invert.

Illapel↗

USGS2012

Stress imparted by the great 2004 Sumatra earthquake shut down transforms and activated rifts up to 400 km away in the Andaman Sea

The origin and prevalence of triggered seismicity and remote aftershocks are under debate. As a result, they have been excluded from probabilistic seismic hazard assessment and aftershock hazard notices. The 2004 M = 9.2 Sumatra earthquake altered seismicity in the Andaman backarc rift-transform system. Here we show that over a 300-km-long largely transform section of the backarc, M ≥4.5 earthquakes stopped for five years, and over a 750-km-long backarc section, the rate of transform events dropped by two-thirds, while the rate of rift events increased eightfold. We compute the propagating dynamic stress wavefield and find the peak dynamic Coulomb stress is similar on the rifts and transforms. Long-period dynamic stress amplitudes, which are thought to promote dynamic failure, are higher on the transforms than on the rifts, opposite to the observations. In contrast to the dynamic stress, we calculate that the mainshock brought the transform segments approximately 0.2 bar (0.02 MPa) farther from static Coulomb failure and the rift segments approximately 0.2 bar closer to static failure, consistent with the seismic observations. This accord means that changes in seismicity rate are sufficiently predictable to be included in post-mainshock hazard evaluations.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of↗

USGS2009

Volcanism and associated hazards: The Andean perspective

Andean volcanism occurs within the Andean Volcanic Arc (AVA), which is the product of subduction of the Nazca Plate and Antarctica Plates beneath the South America Plate. The AVA is Earth's longest but discontinuous continental-margin volcanic arc, which consists of four distinct segments: Northern Volcanic Zone, Central Volcanic Zone, Southern Volcanic Zone, and Austral Volcanic Zone. These segments are separated by volcanically inactive gaps that are inferred to indicate regions where the dips of the subducting plates are too shallow to favor the magma generation needed to sustain volcanism. The Andes host more volcanoes that have been active during the Holocene (past 10 000 years) than any other volcanic region in the world, as well as giant caldera systems that have produced 6 of the 47 largest explosive eruptions (so-called "super eruptions") recognized worldwide that have occurred from the Ordovician to the Pleistocene. <br><br> The Andean region's most powerful historical explosive eruption occurred in 1600 at Huaynaputina Volcano (Peru). The impacts of this event, whose eruptive volume exceeded 11 km 3 , were widespread, with distal ashfall reported at distances >1000 km away. Despite the huge size of the Huaynaputina eruption, human fatalities from hazardous processes (pyroclastic flows, ashfalls, volcanogenic earthquakes, and lahars) were comparatively small owing to the low population density at the time. In contrast, lahars generated by a much smaller eruption (<0.05 km 3 ) in 1985 of Nevado del Ruiz (Colombia) killed about 25 000 people - the worst volcanic disaster in the Andean region as well as the second worst in the world in the 20th century. The Ruiz tragedy has been attributed largely to ineffective communications of hazards information and indecisiveness by government officials, rather than any major deficiencies in scientific data. Ruiz's disastrous outcome, however, together with responses to subsequent hazardous eruptions in Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, and Peru has spurred significant improvements in reducing volcano risk in the Andean region. But much remains to be done.

Huaynaputina Volcano↗

USGS1999

Deaggregation of probabilistic ground motions in the central and eastern United States

Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) is a technique for estimating the annual rate of exceedance of a specified ground motion at a site due to known and suspected earthquake sources. The relative contributions of the various sources to the total seismic hazard are determined as a function of their occurrence rates and their ground-motion potential. The separation of the exceedance contributions into bins whose base dimensions are magnitude and distance is called deaggregation . We have deaggregated the hazard analyses for the new USGS national probabilistic ground-motion hazard maps (Frankel et al. , 1996). For points on a 0.2° grid in the central and eastern United States (CEUS) , we show color maps of the geographical variation of mean and modal magnitudes ( M , Mˇ ) and distances ( D , Dˇ ) for ground motions having a 2% chance of exceedance in 50 years. These maps are displayed for peak horizontal acceleration and for spectral response accelerations of 0.2, 0.3, and 1.0 sec. We tabulate M , D , Mˇ , and Dˇ for 49 CEUS cities for 0.2- and 1.0-sec response. Thus, these maps and tables are PSHA-derived estimates of the potential earthquakes that dominate seismic hazard at short and intermediate periods in the CEUS.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

USGS2025

Subduction zone earthquake catalog separation tool: Implementation in the USGS 2025 Puerto Rico and U.S. Virgin Islands National Seismic Hazard Model

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) periodically releases updates to National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) for the United States and its territories leveraging current scientific knowledge and methodologies to guide public policy, building codes, and risk assessments regarding potential ground shaking due to earthquakes that may result in infrastructure damage. In subduction zones, there is a need to separate the earthquake catalog into tectonic regimes to create specific seismicity models for which the most appropriate ground‐motion models are then applied. Here, we describe newly developed methods and software, called CatSep, that classifies subduction zone events into three primary tectonic regimes: crustal, interface, and intraslab. This method incorporates information about the location of the earthquake relative to the subducting slab, the depth of the Mohorovičić discontinuity, and the earthquake’s moment tensor. Applying this method is a first step in the NSHM workflow for regions covering U.S. subduction zones. Results using this subduction zone earthquake catalog separation tool for the 2025 Puerto Rico and U.S. Virgin Islands NSHM earthquake catalog are presented and analyzed.

Puerto Rico, U.S. Virgin Islands↗

USGS2012

Including foreshocks and aftershocks in time-independent probabilistic seismic hazard analyses

Time‐independent probabilistic seismic‐hazard analysis treats each source as being temporally and spatially independent; hence foreshocks and aftershocks, which are both spatially and temporally dependent on the mainshock, are removed from earthquake catalogs. Yet, intuitively, these earthquakes should be considered part of the seismic hazard, capable of producing damaging ground motions. In this study, I consider the mainshock and its dependents as a time‐independent cluster, each cluster being temporally and spatially independent from any other. The cluster has a recurrence time of the mainshock; and, by considering the earthquakes in the cluster as a union of events, dependent events have an opportunity to contribute to seismic ground motions and hazard. Based on the methods of the U.S. Geological Survey for a high‐hazard site, the inclusion of dependent events causes ground motions that are exceeded at probability levels of engineering interest to increase by about 10% but could be as high as 20% if variations in aftershock productivity can be accounted for reliably.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

USGS2017

Accelerating slip rates on the puente hills blind thrust fault system beneath metropolitan Los Angeles, California, USA

Slip rates represent the average displacement across a fault over time and are essential to estimating earthquake recurrence for proba-bilistic seismic hazard assessments. We demonstrate that the slip rate on the western segment of the Puente Hills blind thrust fault system, which is beneath downtown Los Angeles, California (USA), has accel-erated from ~0.22 mm/yr in the late Pleistocene to ~1.33 mm/yr in the Holocene. Our analysis is based on syntectonic strata derived from the Los Angeles River, which has continuously buried a fold scarp above the blind thrust. Slip on the fault beneath our field site began during the late-middle Pleistocene and progressively increased into the Holocene. This increase in rate implies that the magnitudes and/or the frequency of earthquakes on this fault segment have increased over time. This challenges the characteristic earthquake model and presents an evolving and potentially increasing seismic hazard to metropolitan Los Angeles.

California↗

USGS2020

Strain-estimated ground motions associated with recent earthquakes in California

Peak ground velocity (PGV) is a commonly used parameter in earthquake ground‐motion models (GMMs) and hazard analyses, because it is closely related to structural damage and felt ground shaking, and is typically measured on broadband seismometers. Here, we demonstrate that strainmeters, which directly measure in situ strain in the bulk rock, can easily be related to ground velocity by a factor of bulk shear‐wave velocity and, thus, can be used to measure strain‐estimated PGV. We demonstrate the parity of velocity to strain utilizing data from borehole strainmeters deployed along the plate boundaries of the west coast of the United States for nine recent M "> M M 4.4–7.1 earthquakes in California, including the largest two events of the July 2019 Ridgecrest earthquake sequence. PGVs derived from maximum horizontal shear strains fall within the range of seismic‐estimated values recorded at the same distances. We compare the strain‐estimated data with GMMs based on seismic PGVs and find consistency in residual polarity (positive vs. negative; the sign of the difference between observed and modeled data) for certain earthquake–station paths, where some paths indicate an overestimation and others indicate an underestimation of strain‐derived PGVs, as compared with the GMMs. We surmise that this may be indicative of over or underestimation of shear‐wave velocity along those paths, as compared with the average velocity used to derive PGV from strain measurements, or indicative of repeatable site and path effects that are not accounted for in our analyses. This direct comparison of strain with velocity can highlight physical path effects, as well as improve the density and capability of ground‐motion recordings.

California↗

USGS2018

Integrate urban‐scale seismic hazard analyses with the U.S. National Seismic Hazard Model

For more than 20 yrs, damage patterns and instrumental recordings have highlighted the influence of the local 3D geologic structure on earthquake ground motions (e.g., M "> M M 6.7 Northridge, California, Gao et al. , 1996 ; M "> M M 6.9 Kobe, Japan, Kawase, 1996 ; M "> M M 6.8 Nisqually, Washington, Frankel, Carver, and Williams, 2002 ). Although this and other local‐scale features are critical to improving seismic hazard forecasts, historically they have not been explicitly incorporated into the U.S. National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM, national model and maps), primarily because the necessary basin maps and methodologies were not available at the national scale. Instead, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), its partners, and external groups developed urban seismic hazard maps (urban models and maps) that consider detailed site effects in local areas (e.g., Wong et al. , 2002 ; Cramer et al. , 2006 ; Frankel et al. , 2007 ; Graves et al. , 2011 ). The disconnect between the urban and national hazard models, however, means that the national models, which underlie U.S. building codes and other applications, do not make use of all of the scientific results informing earthquake ground‐shaking hazards. We recommend that future U.S. national seismic hazard assessment make use of all available regional information, including that in urban models. In this column, we describe the roles of and differences between the urban and national models, and discuss the obstacles to and benefits of integrating the urban models with the national model. Future progress on this issue will require further coordination and implementation efforts between the USGS and external partners.

Seismological Research Letters↗

USGS2018

Development of a domestic earthquake alert protocol combining the USGS pager and FEMA Hazus systems

The U.S. Geological Survey’s PAGER automated alert system provides rapid (10-20 min) loss estimates in terms of ranges of fatalities and economic impact for all significant earthquakes around the globe. In contrast, FEMA’s Hazus software, which is currently operated manually by FEMA personnel internally within several hours of any large domestic earthquake, provides more detailed loss information quantified in terms of physical damage to the building stock, as well as a broad range of social and economic consequences estimated at a much higher spatial resolution (census-tract level). Hazus was originally designed for FEMA’s mitigation planning, but has been used of late for post-earthquake situational awareness. While the quick alerts generated automatically by the PAGER system are a suitable way to initially identify consequences for earthquakes, there remains a need to provide detailed loss information for facilitating a wider array of post-earthquake decisions among emergency managers. As such, we have developed a prototype summary product that takes advantage of the benefits of both these loss models for significant domestic earthquakes. The signature product, a new twoPAGER report, will serve as a supplement to the widely deployed standard onePAGER product for all significant domestic earthquakes. Page one is the standard, automated PAGER alert content, with summary alert levels for overall fatality and economic loss estimates, as well as summary content on recent earthquakes, structure vulnerability, and historical secondary hazards. As soon as the Hazus run using the most up-to-date version of the USGS ShakeMap is completed and reviewed by both agencies, the second alert page will be generated and delivered via the USGS website as an update. This second page will contain a summary of the more comprehensive Hazus model results, including spatially distributed estimates of: affected population, economic impact, non-fatal injuries, displaced households, and damage to structures (including potential building safety evaluation requirements). This enhancement does not affect the timeliness and the importance of the initial (onePAGER) alerting content for significant earthquakes; however, the twoPAGER report will provide more detailed, damage and loss/impact content for the Nation in the critical hours following a damaging earthquake.

Conference Paper↗

USGS2022

Revised earthquake recurrence intervals in California, USA: New paleoseismic sites and application of event likelihoods

Recurrence intervals for ground rupturing earthquakes are critical data for assessing seismic hazard. Recurrence intervals are presented here for 38 paleoseismic sites in California. Eleven of these include new or updated data; the remainder use data previously included in the Unified California Earthquake Rupture Forecast Version 3 (UCERF3). The methods and results are consistent with UCERF3. In addition, revised recurrence intervals are presented at every site. The revised recurrence intervals incorporate uncertainty in the interpretation of paleoseismic evidence, which is expressed as event likelihood. Event likelihood is the probability that the evidence has been correctly interpreted as a unique earthquake. Event likelihoods are estimated here for 85 inferred past earthquakes at eight paleoseismic sites in California, using a single, consistent methodology. The average event likelihood is 0.85. The revised recurrence intervals are 16% longer, on average, than conventional estimates, and their confidence intervals are disproportionately wider. These recurrence intervals are suitable for inclusion in a “grand inversion” rupture forecast, and they may be important for addressing a systematic misfit in the UCERF3 grand inversion. The revised recurrence intervals may also be important for assessing the unusually long earthquake hiatus in California. Other applications may not need to consider event likelihoods because the effects are small relative to typical uncertainties.

California↗

USGS2007

Seismic Hazard Maps for Seattle, Washington, Incorporating 3D Sedimentary Basin Effects, Nonlinear Site Response, and Rupture Directivity

This report presents probabilistic seismic hazard maps for Seattle, Washington, based on over 500 3D simulations of ground motions from scenario earthquakes. These maps include 3D sedimentary basin effects and rupture directivity. Nonlinear site response for soft-soil sites of fill and alluvium was also applied in the maps. The report describes the methodology for incorporating source and site dependent amplification factors into a probabilistic seismic hazard calculation. 3D simulations were conducted for the various earthquake sources that can affect Seattle: Seattle fault zone, Cascadia subduction zone, South Whidbey Island fault, and background shallow and deep earthquakes. The maps presented in this document used essentially the same set of faults and distributed-earthquake sources as in the 2002 national seismic hazard maps. The 3D velocity model utilized in the simulations was validated by modeling the amplitudes and waveforms of observed seismograms from five earthquakes in the region, including the 2001 M6.8 Nisqually earthquake. The probabilistic seismic hazard maps presented here depict 1 Hz response spectral accelerations with 10%, 5%, and 2% probabilities of exceedance in 50 years. The maps are based on determinations of seismic hazard for 7236 sites with a spacing of 280 m. The maps show that the most hazardous locations for this frequency band (around 1 Hz) are soft-soil sites (fill and alluvium) within the Seattle basin and along the inferred trace of the frontal fault of the Seattle fault zone. The next highest hazard is typically found for soft-soil sites in the Duwamish Valley south of the Seattle basin. In general, stiff-soil sites in the Seattle basin exhibit higher hazard than stiff-soil sites outside the basin. Sites with shallow bedrock outside the Seattle basin have the lowest estimated hazard for this frequency band.

Open-File Report↗

USGS1995

Seismic maps foster landmark legislation

When a powerful earthquake strikes an urban region, damage concentrates not only near the quake's source. Damage can also occur many miles from the source in areas of soft ground. In recent years, scientists have developed ways to identify and map these areas of high seismic hazard. This advance has spurred pioneering legislation to reduce earthquake losses in areas of greatest hazard.

Fact Sheet↗

USGS2003

Gravity and magnetic expression of the San Leandro gabbro with implications for the geometry and evolution of the Hayward Fault zone, northern California

The Hayward Fault, one of the most hazardous faults in northern California, trends north-northwest and extends for about 90 km along the eastern San Francisco Bay region. At numerous locations along its length, distinct and elongate gravity and magnetic anomalies correlate with mapped mafic and ultramafic rocks. The most prominent of these anomalies reflects the 16-km-long San Leandro gabbroic block. Inversion of magnetic and gravity data constrained with physical property measurements is used to define the subsurface extent of the San Leandro gabbro body and to speculate on its origin and relationship to the Hayward Fault Zone. Modeling indicates that the San Leandro gabbro body is about 3 km wide, dips about 75??-80?? northeast, and extends to a depth of at least 6 km. One of the most striking results of the modeling, which was performed independently of seismicity data, is that accurately relocated seismicity is concentrated along the western edge or stratigraphically lower bounding surface of the San Leandro gabbro. The western boundary of the San Leandro gabbro block is the base of an incomplete ophiolite sequence and represented at one time, a low-angle roof thrust related to the tectonic wedging of the Franciscan Complex. After repeated episodes of extension and attenuation, the roof thrust of this tectonic wedge was rotated to near vertical, and in places, the strike-slip Hayward Fault probably reactivated or preferentially followed this pre-existing feature. Because earthquakes concentrate near the edge of the San Leandro gabbro but tend to avoid its interior, we qualitatively explore mechanical models to explain how this massive igneous block may influence the distribution of stress. The microseismicity cluster along the western flank of the San Leandro gabbro leads us to suggest that this stressed volume may be the site of future moderate to large earthquakes. Improved understanding of the three-dimensional geometry and physical properties along the Hayward Fault will provide additional constraints on seismic hazard probability, earthquake modeling, and fault interactions that are applicable to other major strike-slip faults around the world.

California↗

USGS2014

Variations in population vulnerability to tectonic and landslide-related tsunami hazards in Alaska

Effective tsunami risk reduction requires an understanding of how at-risk populations are specifically vulnerable to tsunami threats. Vulnerability assessments primarily have been based on single hazard zones, even though a coastal community may be threatened by multiple tsunami sources that vary locally in terms of inundation extents and wave arrival times. We use the Alaskan coastal communities of Cordova, Kodiak, Seward, Valdez, and Whittier (USA), as a case study to explore population vulnerability to multiple tsunami threats. We use anisotropic pedestrian evacuation models to assess variations in population exposure as a function of travel time out of hazard zones associated with tectonic and landslide-related tsunamis (based on scenarios similar to the 1964 M w 9.2 Good Friday earthquake and tsunami disaster). Results demonstrate that there are thousands of residents, employees, and business customers in tsunami hazard zones associated with tectonically generated waves, but that at-risk individuals will likely have sufficient time to evacuate to high ground before waves are estimated to arrive 30–60 min after generation. Tsunami hazard zones associated with submarine landslides initiated by a subduction zone earthquake are smaller and contain fewer people, but many at-risk individuals may not have enough time to evacuate as waves are estimated to arrive in 1–2 min and evacuations may need to occur during earthquake ground shaking. For all hazard zones, employees and customers at businesses far outnumber residents at their homes and evacuation travel times are highest on docks and along waterfronts. Results suggest that population vulnerability studies related to tsunami hazards should recognize non-residential populations and differences in wave arrival times if emergency managers are to develop realistic preparedness and outreach efforts.

Alaska↗

USGS2018

Modeling the Holocene slip history of the Wasatch fault (Utah): Coseismic and postseismic Coulomb stress changes and implications for paleoseismicity and seismic hazard

The Wasatch fault zone defines the eastern boundary of the actively extending Basin and Range Province (Utah, western United States) and poses a significant seismic hazard to the metropolitan areas along the Wasatch Range. A wealth of paleoseismological data documents ∼24 surface-rupturing Mw ≥ 7 earthquakes along the Wasatch fault during the past 6400 yr. Here, we simulated the Holocene earthquake sequence on the Wasatch, Oquirrh−Great Salt Lake, and West Valley faults using three-dimensional finite-element forward modeling with the goal to calculate coseismic and postseismic Coulomb stress changes and to evaluate the slip and magnitude of hypothetical present-day and future earthquakes. Our results show that a good fit between modeled and observed paleoevents and time-integrated slip rates can be achieved within the uncertainties of the paleoseismological record and model parameters like the fault geometry. The Coulomb stress change analysis for selected paleoearthquakes showed that maximum positive stress changes are induced on faults located along strike of the source fault, while faults parallel to the source fault are generally located in stress shadow zones. Postseismic viscoelastic relaxation considerably modifies the coseismic stress changes; the resulting transient stress changes are recognizable for more than 100 yr after an earthquake. The modeled present-day state of Coulomb stress changes shows that the Brigham City, Salt Lake City, and Provo segments of the Wasatch fault are prone to failure in a Mw ≥ 6.8 earthquake. Our study shows that simulation of an entire earthquake sequence based on a paleoseismological record is feasible and facilitates identification of possible gaps and inconsistencies in the paleoseismological record. Therefore, forward modeling of earthquake sequences may ultimately contribute to improved seismic hazard estimates.

Utah↗